This thesis investigates the factors that are associated with annual changes in the share price of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) listed companies. In this study, an increase in value of a share is when the share price of a company goes up by the end of the financial year as compared to the previous year. Secondary data that was sourced from McGregor BFA website was used. The data was from 2004 up to 2011. Deciding which share to buy is the biggest challenge faced by both investment companies and individuals when investing on the stock exchange. This thesis uses binary logistic regression to identify the variables that are associated with share price increase. The dependent variable was annual change in share price (ACSP) and the independent variables were assets per capital employed ratio, debt per assets ratio, debt per equity ratio, dividend yield, earnings per share, earnings yield, operating profit margin, price earnings ratio, return on assets, return on equity and return on capital employed. Different variable selection methods were used and it was established that the backward elimination method produced the best model. It was established that the probability of success of a share is higher if the shareholders are anticipating a higher return on capital employed, and high earnings/ share. It was however, noted that the share price is negatively impacted by dividend yield and earnings yield. Since the odds of an increase in share price is higher if there is a higher return on capital employed and high earning per share, investors and investment companies are encouraged to choose companies with high earnings per share and the best returns on capital employed. The final model had a classification rate of 68.3% and the validation sample produced a classification rate of 65.2% / Mathematical Sciences / M.Sc. (Statistics)

The diploma thesis concerns itself with the analysis of connection between the media exposure to refugeedom topics and the perceived salience of the issue. Combined qualitative and quantitative research designs ruled by QUAN → qual scheme are used in the thesis. In the quantitative part the effect of exposure to refugeedom-related news on the perceived salience of the subject is constructed using TV and newspaper viewing figures while controlling socio- demographic characteristics of respondents. Binary logistic regression was used to find the influence. The analysis shows that the exposure to content concerning immigration and refugees has influenced the rated importance of the issue. However, there are other variables not included in the model which are affecting the salience. The qualitative approach offers insights into the relationship discovered with quantitative methods. In-depth interviews showed people are aware of the media influence mainly regarding topics they are thinking about and discussing with their social surroundings. According to some interviewees this influence is stronger observed in topics where we lack personal experience, like the refugees. Apart from the media other issues like value orientation, life experience, social surroundings or the extent of criticism may have...

The goal of learning analytics is to optimize learning and the environments in which it occurs. Since 2011, when learning analytics was defined as a separate and distinct area of academic inquiry, the literature has identified a need for research that presents evidence of effective learning analytics, as well as, learning analytics research that is conducted in conjunction with learning theory. This study uses Efklides' metacognitive and affective model of self-regulated learning (MASRL) to define cognitive, metacognitive, and affective variables that can explain students' learning outcomes in hybrid/online sections of Calculus I in the 2020-21 academic year. Cognitive variables were measured according to the cognitive operational framework for analytics (COPA). Metacognitive variables were defined according to the ways in which students interacted with the course content in the learning management system (LMS) and supplemental instruction, and affective variables were measured by ways students gave evidence of their affective states, such as in discussion board posts. All variables were compared across the course learning design, activities, and outcomes. Binary logistic regression revealed five significant variables: two cognitive, one metacognitive, and two affective. Thus, this study provided a learning analytics, evidence-based link between self-regulated learning theory and learning design, activities, and outcomes. In addition, implications for students, instructors, and learning theory were explored, as well as, the qualifications of this study as evidence of effective learning analytics.

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The General Data Protection Regulation enforced on the 25th of may in 2018 is a response to the growing importance of IT in today’s society, accompanied by public demand for control over personal data. In contrast to the previous directive, the new regulation applies to personal data stored in an unstructured format, such as email, rather than solely structured data. Companies are now forced to accommodate to this change, among others, in order to be compliant. This study aims to provide a code of conduct for the processing of personal data in email as a measure for reaching compliance. Furthermore, this study investigates whether Named Entity Recognition (NER) can aid this process as a means of finding personal data in the form of names. A literature review of current research and recommendations was conducted for the code of conduct proposal. A NER system was constructed using a hybrid approach with Binary Logistic Regression, hand-crafted rules and gazetteers. The model was applied to a selection of emails, including attachments, obtained from a small consultancy company in the automotive industry. The proposed code of conduct consists of six items, applied to the consultancy firm. The NER-model demonstrated low ability to identify names and was therefore deemed insufficient for this task. / Dataskyddsförordningen började gälla den 25e maj 2018, och uppstod som ett svar på den okände betydelsen av IT i dagens samhälle samt allmänhetens krav på ökad kontroll över personuppgifter för den enskilde individen. Till skillnad från det tidigare direktivet, omfattar den nya förordningen även personuppgifter som är lagrad i ostrukturerad form, som till exempel e-post, snarare än endast i strukturerad form. Många företag tvingas därmed att anpassa sig efter detta, tillsammans med ett flertal andra nya krav, i syfte att efterfölja förordningen. Den här studien syftar till att lägga fram ett förslag på en uppförandekod för behandling av personuppgifter i e-post som ett verktyg för att nå medgörlighet. Utöver detta undersöks det om Named Entity Recognition (NER) kan användas som ett hjälpmedel vid identifiering av personuppgifter, mer specifikt namn. En litteraturstudie kring tidigare forskning och aktuella rekommendationer utfördes inför utformningen av uppförandekoden. Ett NER-system konstruerades med hjälp av Binär Logistisk Regression, handgjorda regler och ordlistor. Modellen applicerades på ett urval av e-postmeddelanden, med eventuella bilagor, som tillhandahölls från ett litet konsultbolag aktivt inom bilindustrin. Den rekommenderade uppförandekoden består av sex punkter, applicerade på konsultbolaget. NER-modellen påvisade en låg förmåga att identifiera namn och ansågs därför inte vara lämplig för den utsatta uppgiften.

房屋貸款保證保險制度可移轉部分違約風險予保險公司。然而，保險公司與金融機構在共同承擔風險之際，因房貸保證保險制度之施行，於提高貸款成數後，產生違約風險提高之矛盾現象；而估計保險之預期損失時，以目前尚無此制度下之違約數據估計損失額，將有錯估之可能。 本研究以二元邏吉斯特迴歸模型(Binary Logistic Regression Model)與存活分析(Survival Analysis)估計違約行為，並比較各模型間資料適合度及預測能力，進而單獨分析變數-貸款成數對違約率之邊際機率影響。以探討房貸保證保險施行後，因其對借款者信用增強而提高之貸款成數，所增加之違約風險。並評估金融機構因提高貸款成數後可能之違約風險變動，據以推估違約率數據，並根據房貸保證保險費率結構模型，計算可能之預期損失額，估算變動的保險費率。 實證結果發現，貸款成數與違約風險呈現顯著正相關，貸款成數增加，邊際影響呈遞增情形，違約率隨之遞增，而違約預期損失額亦同時上升。保險公司因預期損失額增加，為維持保費收入得以支付預期損失，其保險費率將明顯提升。故實施房屋貸款保證保險，因借款者信用增強而提高之貸款成數，將增加違約機率並對保險費率產生直接變動。 / Mortgage insurance system may transfer part of the default risk to insurance companies. However, the implementation of mortgage insurance system, on increasing loan to value ratio, the resulting increase default risk. And literatures estimate the expected loss without the default data, there will be misjudge. Our study constructs the binary logistic regression model and survival analysis to estimate the mortgage default behavior, and compare the data between the model fit and the predictive power. Analyzes the effect of loan to value ratio on the marginal probability of default rate. Furthermore, assess the financial institutions in the risk of default due to loan to value ratio changes. According to the estimated default rate data, we employ the mortgage insurance rate structural model to calculate the expected amount of loss and the changes in premium rates. Empirical results found loan to value ratio have a significant positive effect on borrowers’ default. Loan to value ratio increase, the marginal effect progressively increase, along with increasing default rates and expected default losses. Due to the ascendant expected loss, insurance companies increase premiums to cover the expected loss, the premium rate will be significantly improved. Therefore, the implementation of mortgage insurance, credit enhancement for the borrower to improve loan to value ratio, will increase the probability of default and insurance rates.

Denna studies syfte var att analysera sex nyckeltal och se vilka samband dessa hade på riskbuffert sysselsatt kapital. Studien utfördes på 796 små byggbolag i Sverige under perioden 2009–2016 med hjälp av en binär logistisk regressionsanalys. Som teoretisk referensram användes working capital management och finansiell oro. Studien resulterade i att kapitalets omsättningshastighet, skuldränta och rörelsekapital/totala tillgångar uppvisade signifikanta negativa samband med riskbuffert sysselsatt kapital. Räntetäckningsgrad och avkastning på totalt kapital resulterade i signifikanta positiva samband med riskbuffert sysselsatt kapital. Skuldsättningsgrad resulterade intressant nog i ett icke signifikant negativt samband. Slutligendiskuterades byggbolagens sannolikhet för finansiell oro utifrån respektive nyckeltal. / The aim of this study was to examine the relation between six independent key ratios with riskbuffer on capital employed. The study was conducted on 796 small construction enterprises in Sweden during 2009–2016 with a binary logistic regression model. As theoretical framework, working capital management and financial distress was applied. The study concluded that the capital turnover rate, interest payable and working capital to total assets had significant negative relations with riskbuffer on capital employed. However, the interest cover ratio and return on total assets were both significant positively related withriskbuffer on capital employed. Debt-to-equity ratio resulted interestly enough in a nonsignificant negative relation. Lastly, with regards taken to every respective key ratio, the probability of financial distress among the construction firms was discussed.

<p dir="ltr">Automaticity, an essential attribute of skill, is developed when a task is executed repeatedly with minimal attention and can have both good (e.g., productivity, skill acquisitions) and bad (e.g., accident involvement) implications on workers’ performance. However, the implications of automaticity in construction are unknown despite their significance. To address this knowledge gap, this research aimed to examine methods that are indicative of the development of automaticity on construction sites and its implications on construction safety and productivity. The objectives of the dissertation include: 1) examining the development of automaticity during the repetitive execution of a primary task of roofing construction and a concurrent secondary task (a computer-generated audio-spatial processing task) to measure attentional resources; 2) using eye-tracking metrics to distinguish between automatic and nonautomatic subjects and determine the significant factors contributing to the odds of automatic behavior; 3) determining which personal characteristics (such as personality traits and mindfulness dimensions) better explain the variability in the attention of workers while developing automaticity. To achieve this objective, 28 subjects were recruited to take part in a longitudinal study involving a total of 22 repetitive sessions of a simulated roofing task. The task involves the installation of 17 pieces of 25 ft2 shingles on a low-sloped roof model that was 8 ft wide, 8 ft long, and 4 ft high for one month in a laboratory. The collected data was analyzed using multiple statistical and data mining techniques such as repeated measures analysis of variance (RM-ANOVA), pairwise comparisons, principal component analysis (PCA), support vector machine (SVM), binary logistic regression (BLR), relative weight analyses (RWA), and advanced bootstrapping techniques to address the research questions. First, the findings showed that as the experiment progressed, there were significant improvements in the mean automatic performance measures such as the mean primary task duration, mean primary task accuracy, and mean secondary task score over the repeated measurements (p-value < 0.05). These findings were used to demonstrate that automaticity develops during repetitive construction activities. This is because these automatic performance measures provide an index for assessing feature-based changes that are synonymous with automaticity development. Second, this study successfully used supervised machine learning methods including SVM to classify subjects (with an accuracy of 76.8%) based on their eye-tracking data into automatic and nonautomatic states. Also, BLR was used to estimate the probability of exhibiting automaticity based on eye-tracking metrics and ascertain the variables significantly contributing to it. Eye-tracking variables collected towards safety harness and anchor, hammer, and work area AOIs were found to be significant predictors (p < 0.05) of the probability of exhibiting automatic behavior. Third, the results revealed that higher levels of agreeableness significantly impact increased levels of change in attention to productivity-related cues during automatic behavior. Additionally, higher levels of nonreactivity to inner experience significantly reduce the changes in attention to safety-related AOIs while developing automaticity. The findings of this study provide metrics to assess training effectiveness. The findings of this study can be used by practitioners to better understand the positive and negative consequences of developing automaticity, measure workers’ performance more accurately, assess training effectiveness, and personalize learning for workers. In long term, the findings of this study will also aid in improving human-AI teaming since the AI will be better able to understand the cognitive state of its human counterpart and can more precisely adapt to him or her.</p>