European fiscal integration in euro absentia. Budgetary compliance as a step stone to a fiscal union Author: Ștefania-Felicia Pavel Student ID: 31195144 Degree: Erasmus Mundus Joint Master Programme European Politics and Society Supervisor: Mitchell Young, PhD. Institution: Charles University, Faculty of Social Sciences Institute of International Studies Submission: June 2020 Defence: September 2020 English abstract This research investigates fiscal convergence via disciplined budgets in non-euro Member States. The thesis hypothesizes that 1) post-2010 enhanced macroeconomic governance is conducive to a fiscal union and 2) fiscal stance of non-euro Member States is not correlated with their attitude to euro adoption. The fiscal convergence in euro absentia is dually tested through theory application and intensive case studies. The results show that countries can be fiscally compliant, but reject the euro or be euro enthusiast, yet fiscally deviant. Thus, the single currency can be either backstop or driver of more integration, nonetheless, European integration continues. The findings substantiate the proposition that a fiscal union is building up even in euro absentia.

Diploma thesis deals with problem whether fiscal policy has an impact on development of currency exchange rate. The first aim of the thesis is to describe some theoretical models which consider possibilities of relationship between fiscal policy and currency exchange rate and to give a notice where can be differences. The thesis introduces a function of fiscal policy, a creation of currency exchange rate and describes an environment of exchange market. Currency exchange rate is stable on its market defined value in the long term. I suppose also that interventions of leaders of fiscal policy can not influence currency exchange rate positively. On the other hand, there could be a negative impact on currency exchange rate by leaders of fiscal policy. The second aim of the thesis is to analyze an impact of government debt on development of currency exchange rate, mainly are analyzed the Czech republic, Great Britain and some other selected countries of the European union. In the thesis are provided macroeconomic data of mentioned countries, mainly government debt to gross domestic product, budget deficit to gross domestic product, development of currency exchange rate and some information about macroeconomic situation of countries. Final part of the thesis provides an analysis of an impact of debt on currency exchange rate (correlation analysis, graphical comparing).

Tout au long de l'histoire du Pakistan depuis son indépendance, la domination budgétaire est restée une norme, à la fois dans les régimes démocratiques et militaires. Cette augmentation de la persistance du déficit budgétaire a dilué la performance du secteur réel et affecté négativement la balance des paiements, ce qui provoque l'inflation dans l'économie. L'expérience du Pakistan montre que d'importants déficits budgétaires ont conduit le gouvernement à des emprunts excessifs de la banque d'État du Pakistan (SBP) et par conséquent à une vaste impression de l'argent. Dans une telle situation, la banque centrale se retrouve avec peu d'espace pour exterminer les chiffres croissants d'inflation et d'assurer une croissance saine. Sur la base de toutes ces preuves et l'échec de la politique monétaire pour maintenir les prix dans des limites acceptables, l'économie du Pakistan est supposée victime de la domination budgétaire - également connu sous le régime de non-ricardienne. Cependant, il n'y a guère de preuves où une étude approfondie est menée pour prouver la domination budgétaire au Pakistan, puis définir une politique pour y remédier. Dans ce contexte, notre thèse porte sur la domination budgétaire et le niveau d'inflation élevé en conséquence, qui est resté élevé pendant presque une décennie. Nous allons mener quatre études, allant de l'identification de la domination budgétaire dans l'économie du Pakistan pour évaluer l'impact de la politique budgétaire sur la croissance et l'inflation. La première étude est liée à la littérature sur les théories de dominance fiscale, où la politique budgétaire agit activement et la politique monétaire suit passivement. Le deuxième modèle, la théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix (FTPL), affirme que la dette publique et la politique budgétaire déterminent principalement le niveau des prix dans une économie. Le troisième modèle examine la fiscalisation optimale et le revenu du seigneuriage. Le concept est basé sur Sidrauski (1967) modèle. La notion du modèle est que le niveau général des prix plus élevés déforme la demande de monnaie et augmente ainsi le bien-être. Lorsque les revenus du gouvernement sont en deçà de ses dépenses, le gouvernement finance son déficit budgétaire grâce à la génération des revenus de seigneuriages. Dans notre quatrième étude, nous mesurons la réponse de l'inflation et de la croissance à l'évolution de la politique budgétaire tout en tenant compte des comportements des détenteurs de dépôts et l'industrie bancaire. / The central bank uses policy rates for reducing inflation. However, policy rates become less affective in comparison to bond’s rates when convertibility between bonds of different maturities decreases. This makes monetary policy ineffective if the government borrows heavily from the domestic market and an active fiscal policy, aiming to increase the economic activity, stimulates inflationary pressure. Throughout the history of Pakistan since its independence, fiscal dominance remained a norm, both in the democratic and military regimes. During the last three decades, the economy of Pakistan is faced with serious fiscal deficit tribulations. Increasing public debt stock and dilapidated tax-to-GDP ratio are grave hurdles in reducing the widening fiscal deficit. This persistence increase in the fiscal deficit has diluted the real sector performance and negatively affected the balance of payments position, causing inflation in the economy. Further, it makes government dependent on huge borrowing from internal and external sources and pushed it to increased debt servicing intricacy. Despite recurring efforts on part of government, no evident success is witnessed to reduce the ever increasing fiscal deficit. Large fiscal deficits have led the government of Pakistan to excessive borrowing from central bank of the country (SBP) and consequently to extensive printing of money.Though, SBP imposed an upper ceiling on government borrowing to reduce its public borrowing from central bank. However, the government never respected these ceilings and compromised the independence of central bank. This dependence on local money market for financing budget deficit increased money base, caused crowding out of private sector, resulted in high printing of money and reduced the monetary policy space to exterminate high inflation. Such a situation restricts the monetary policy to offset the distortions existing in the economy and to achieve its desired goals. Such scenario advocates a dire need of fiscal and monetary policy coordination to strike an appropriate balance between growth and inflation. In this context, our thesis focuses on fiscal dominance and the consequent high inflation level, which remained lofty for almost a decade. We conduct four studies, ranging from the identification of fiscal dominance in the economy of Pakistan to gauging the impact of fiscal policy on growth and inflation.The first study is related to literature on fiscal dominance theories, where fiscal policy acts actively and monetary policy follows passively. To establish that the decades long high inflation in Pakistan is solely because of fiscal dominance, a second study is conducted to analyze the interest rate pass through mechanism in Pakistan. In the third step, it uses corporate governance proxies, capital structure proxies and ownership structure proxies to investigate their links with bank’s performance. In our fourth study, we gauge the response of inflation and growth to changes in fiscal policy while taking into account deposit holders behavior and banking industry.

Major issue of this thesis is fiscal imbalance, which is expressed by budget deficit and public debt. The aim is to find the main cause of the current state indebtedness of public finance. The basic hypothesis of this work is that the current state is not strictly caused by the economic downturn raised by the global economic crisis. The analysis is performed at 8 states of the European Union. The theoretical section is focused on the description of theoretical connections in the system of public finances, fiscal imbalances, business cycle and shaping of Economic and monetary union. The analytical part discusses the specific challenges like unemployment, persistent budget deficits and increasing public and private debts. The selected data are presenting through series of graphs.

Valstybės skolos valdymas daro įtaką valstybės ekonomikai. Valstybės skolos valdymo santykiai yra plačiai reglamentuojami tiek Europos Sąjungos tiek ir Lietuvos valstybės institucijų priimtais teisės aktais. Juose nustatoma institucinė sistema, nurodomos subjektų teisės ir pareigos. Teisės aktuose taip pat formuojama skolos valdymo politika, detaliai išdėstomos skolinimosi procedūros. / State debt management has direct impact on state’s economical situation. State debt management is widely regulated by European Union’s and Lithuania’s laws. In that laws there are established institutional system, subject’s rights and duties, policy of state debt management and borrowing procedures.

Tyrimo objektas – VSDF pajamas įtakojantys veiksniai. Tyrimo tikslas – išnagrinėjus socialinio draudimo pajamas įtakojančius veiksnius, įvertinti jų įtaką VSDF pajamoms. Tyrimo uždaviniai: 1. Atliktus teorinę VSDF pajamas įtakojančių veiksnių ir jų vertinimo metodų analizę, išskirti pagrindinius veiksnius ir jiems įvertinti tinkamus vertinimo metodus; 2. Parengti veiksnių įtakos VSDF pajamoms vertinimo metodiką; 3. Nustatyti identifikuotų veiksnių reikšmingumą VSDF pajamoms; 4. Numatyti veiksnių kitimo tendencijų įtaką VSDF pajamoms ir pateikti pasiūlymus VSDF pajamų didinimui. Tyrimo metodai: mokslinės ir periodinės literatūros bei teisės aktų analizė, sintezė, koreliacinė ir regresinė analizė, ekspertinė apklausa, grafinio vaizdavimo, dinamikos eilučių analizė, indukcijos ir dedukcijos bei modeliavimo. Tyrimo rezultatai: pirmojoje dalyje pateikiama teorinė analizė apie VSDF pajamas įtakojančius veiksnius bei išskiriami juos apibūdinantys rodikliai. Antrojoje dalyje yra parengta metodika, kaip identifikuoti VSDF pajamas įtakojančius veiksnius bei juos apibūdinančius rodiklius, parengta jų svarbumo įvertinimo metodika. Trečioje dalyje pritaikoma sukurta metodika, atliekami skaičiavimai bei vertinimai. Nustatomas veiksnių ir identifikuotų rodiklių reikšmingumas. Pagal sudarytus regresinius modelius ir kitus statistinius metodus atliekamos prognozės bei pateikiamos rekomendacijos, į kuriuos veiksnius ir rodiklius reikia atkreipti dėmesį, kad būtų padidintos VSDF pajamos. / The object of the research is the factors affecting SSIF’s revenue. The aim of the research is to analyze the factors affecting the social insurance revenue and to evaluate their impact on SSIF’s revenue. The objectives of the research: 1. To carry out the theoretical analysis of the factors affecting SSIF’s revenue and their evaluation of methods analysis, also to point out main factors and evaluate them in the appropriate methods. 2. To develop the methodology for evaluating the factors and the impact of their indicators on SSIF’s revenue; 3. To determine the significance of the identified factors for SSIF’s revenue; 4. To forecast the indicators’ change trends and to make suggestions on how to increase SSIF’s revenue. The research methods are the following: analysis of scientific and periodic literature and legal acts, correlation and regression analysis, expert survey, graphic depiction, dynamic line analysis, logical thinking, etc. The results of the research: in the first part the theoretical analysis of the factors affecting SSIF’s revenue is presented and the indicators that define those factors are identified. In the second part the methodology for identifying the factors affecting SSIF’s revenue and the indicators that define those factors and the methodology for evaluating their significance are developed. In the third part the developed methodology is applied, calculations and evaluations are made. The significance of the factors and the identified indicators is... [to full text]

Magistro baigiamąjame darbe atlikta Baltijos šalių valstybės skolos ir jos valdymo lyginamoji analizė. Darbą sudaro trys dalys. Pirmoje darbo dalyje apžvelgiami teoriniai valstybės skolos ir jos valdymo aspektai: pateikiamas valstybės skolos klasifikavimas, skolinimosi instrumentai, veiksniai, leimiantys valstybės skolinimosi poreikį, valstybės skolos vertinimo rodikliai, apžvelgiama kokį poveikį šalies ekonomikai daro valstybės skolinimasis, taip pat valstybės skolos valdymo problemos bei kylančios rizikos. Antrojoje darbo dalyje pateikiama Baltjos šalių valstybės skolos analizės, vertinimo bei prognozavimo metodologija. Trečiojoje darbo dalyje atliekama Baltijos šalių ekonominės situacijos, lemiančios valstybės skolinimosi poreikį, analizė. Taip pat analizuojamas Baltijos šalių valstybės skolos dydis, jį lemiantys veiksniai, skolos struktūra, atliekamas valstybės skolos vertinimas pagal santykinius rodiklius bei apžvelgiami skolos valdymo ypatumai. Pritaikant koreliacinę analizę tiriamas Baltijos šalių valstybės skolos ir pasirinktų veiksnių ryšys. Panaudojant daugialypės tiesinės regresijos bei autoregresijos slankiųjų vidurkių metodus, prognozuojama Baltijos šalių valstybės skola 2013 - 2014 metams. Galiausiai pateikiamos išvados ir siūlymai. / The master thesis analyses and compares the government debt of Baltic states and its management. The work consists of three parts. The first part provides theoretical overview of government debt and its management: the classification of the government debt, borrowing instruments, factors, which influence state's borrowing needs, government debt indicators, the link between governmnet debt and economic growth, as well as problems of government debt management and emerging risks. The second part presents the methodology of government debt analysis, evaluation and forecasting. The third part primaliry analyzes economic situation in Baltic states. It also analyzes and compares changes in government debt of Baltic states, the reasons of changes, costs of borrowing, the debt structure, also evaluates government debt in Baltic states by using relative rates of government debt and reviews the main aspects of government debt management. The correlation analysis is used to investigate the relationship between government debt of Baltic states and some selected factors. By using multiple regression model and autoregressive – moving average method, there is forecasting the changes of government debt in Baltic states in period 2013 – 2014. Finally, conclusions are made and recommendations are given.

The very important instrument of public policy is a public budgets system, which is one of the most significant parts of the budgetary scale. Public budget performs an allocation, redistribution and stabilization function and as an account balance it balances ordinary and capital incomes and outlays. Public budget consists of state budget and municipal authorities budget. Nowadays most of European public budgets are deficient. Fiscal deficit is a result of a short-term imbalance. In the Czech Republic the public budgets have been deficient since 1996, when the balance of public incomes and outlays was -11,5 milliard CZK. After the admission of the Czech Republic to the European Union the public deficit within convergence criteria has been still declining under the norm of 3 % GDP. In order to public budgets deficit reducing the public finances reform is in progress in the Czech Republic. Its integral part is a fiscal reform with objective to transfer a tax load from direct taxes to indirect taxes and actively stimulate tax revenues of public budgets.

La récurrence du déficit public en Guinée et la difficulté subséquente de financer les services publics, exigent que des ressources financières soient davantage identifiées pour y pallier. Parmi les moyens de résorption du déficit, l'impôt, du fait de sa faible participation budgétaire (17% contre 20% du PIB dans les pays de la sous-région Ouest-africaine) constitue une des recettes publiques dont le rendement doit être substantiellement amélioré. L'atteinte d'un tel objectif requiert d'abord que nous réformions la politique fiscale  : outre la mise en exergue des accords commerciaux dont les implications fiscales et douanières amenuisent les recettes budgétaires, et les dépenses fiscales consécutives aux politiques d'attraction des investissements étrangers, il importe de proposer des stratégies d'amélioration du rendement fiscal, lesquelles consistent à réformer d'une part la fiscalité intérieure et d'autre part, à renforcer la coopération fiscale internationale en vue de mieux lutter contre la fraude et l'évasion fiscales. Il importe ensuite que nous nous intéressions aux rapports entre l'administration des impôts et le contribuable. Il s'agit notamment d'identifier les raisons du manque de civisme du contribuable guinéen. Celles-ci se résument à une propension de l'administration financière publique, dotée d'importants pouvoirs, à renflouer les caisses publiques face à des contribuables qui ne bénéficient que de faibles garanties juridiques, et à une profonde méfiance de ces derniers quant à la bonne gestion de l'impôt acquitté, ce qui nécessite des mesures extra-fiscales garantissant l'efficacité et l'efficience des ressources publiques, donc fiscales. / The recurrence of the public deficit in Guinea and the subsequent difficulty of financing public services, requires that more financial resources are identified to address them. Among the means of reducing the deficit, tax, due to its low budget participation (17% against 20% of GDP in the countries of the West African sub-region) is a government revenue whose performance must be substantially improved.Achieving this goal requires first that we reform the tax policy : In addition to highlighting commercial agreements including tax and customs implications dwindling budget revenues, and tax expenditures resulting from the policy of attraction of foreign investments, it is important to improve the tax efficiency strategies, which consist firstly to reform domestic taxation and secondly, to strengthen international tax cooperation to improve the fight against fraud and tax evasion. It is then important that we pay attention in the relationship between the tax administration and the taxpayer. These include identifying the reasons for the lack of civism of the Guinean taxpayer. They boil down to a propensity of public financial administration, with significant powers, to bail out public funds facing taxpayers benefiting from weak legal guarantees, and a deep mistrust of the latter in the good management of the tax-paid, which requires measures extra-fis which requires criminal measures to ensure the effectiveness and the efficiency of public resources, thus taxThey boil down to a propensity of public financial administration, with significant powers, to replenish public funds facing taxpayers who receive only weak legal safeguards and a deep distrust of the latter on the good management of the tax paid, which requires extra tax measures to guarantee the effectiveness and efficiency of public resources, thus tax.

This thesis deals with the effects of the financial crisis on the state budget of the Czech Republic in 2008 - 2013. The main objective of this thesis is to analyze the impact of the financial crisis on revenues, expenditures and budget deficit and public debt of the Czech Republic within the selected period, in the context of measures taken by the government. The theoretical part of the thesis includes the definition of "financial crisis", the main causes of the global financial crisis, including the mechanism by which the crisis has grown into a global extent. The practical part of the thesis deals with the analysis of the impact of the financial crisis on the state budget of the Czech Republic in 2008 - 2013. In conclusion, problem areas are identified and the recommendations are formulated.