Yes / In today’s rapidly changing business landscape, organizations increasingly invest in different technologies to enhance their innovation capabilities. Among the technological investment, a notable development is the applications of big data analytics (BDA), which plays a pivotal role in supporting firms’ decision-making processes. Big data technologies are important factors that could help both exploratory and exploitative innovation, which could affect the efforts to combat climate change and ease the shift to green energy. However, studies that comprehensively examine BDA’s impact on innovation capability and technological cycle remain scarce. This study therefore investigates the impact of BDA on innovation capability, technological cycle, and firm performance. It develops a conceptual model, validated using CB-SEM, through responses from 356 firms. It is found that both innovation capability and firm performance are significantly influenced by big data technology. This study highlights that BDA helps to address the pressing challenges of climate change mitigation and the transition to cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. However, our results are based on managerial perceptions in a single country. To enhance generalizability, future studies could employ a more objective approach and explore different contexts. Multidimensional constructs, moderating factors, and rival models could also be considered in future studies.

Diese Dissertation befasst sich mit europäischer und US-amerikanischer Konjunkturgeschichte und Marktintegration im 19. und 20. Jahrhundert. Zur Analyse von konjunkturellen Schwankungen stellt sie der weitverbreiteten Historischen Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung (VGR) die Methode dynamischer Faktoranalyse zur Seite, die dazu beiträgt, die begrenzten historischen Zeitreihen effizient zu nutzen. Die nationale und internationale Entwicklung von Weizenmärkten seit dem Ende der Napoleonischen Kriege wird mit einem multivariaten dynamischen Faktormodell untersucht. Spektralanalyse wird zur Berechnung frequenzspezifischer Kohärenz von historischen Börsenindizes und konkurrierenden Schätzungen des Nationalprodukts in Deutschland zwischen 1850 und 1913 herangezogen. Ein wichtiges Ergebnis ist, dass Finanzdaten die Datierung der Konjunktur im Deutschen Kaiserreich erleichtern, was auch durch die Ergebnisse der Faktoranalyse bestätigt wird. Der verwendete Aktienindex, einzelne reale Konjunkturindikatoren und der dynamische Faktor korrelieren eng miteinder. Die Bildung sektoraler Sub-Indizes zeigt, dass der Übergang von einer landwirtschaftlich zu einer industriell geprägten Volkswirtschaft vermutlich früher geschehen ist als Beschäftigungsanteile aus der Historischen VGR vermuten lassen. Die Untersuchung der U.S.-Konjunktur ergibt die Annahme zeitvariierender Strukturparameter eine Erhöhung der Konjunkturschwankungsbreite nach dem 2. Weltkrieg verglichen mit der Zeit vor dem 1. Weltkrieg. Für die Weizenmarktintegration in Europa zeigt sich, dass die Entwicklung vor der Mitte des 19. Jahrhunderts schneller voran ging als danach, was eine Neuinterpretation der Rolle von Technologien wie dem Metallrumpf und dem Dampfschiff sowie dem Eintritt Amerikas als Weizenproduzenten nahelegt. / This thesis addresses historical business cycles and market integration in Europe and America in the 19th and 20th centuries. For the analysis of historical business cycles, the widely used methodology of historical national accounting is complemented with a dynamic factor model that allows for using scarce historical data efficiently. In order to investigate how national and international markets developed since the early 1800s, a multivariate dynamic factor model is used. Spectral analysis helps in measuring frequency specific correlation between financial indicators and rivaling national income estimates for Germany between 1850 and 1913. One result is that the historical stock market index used helps to discriminate between competing estimates of German national income. A dynamic factor estimated from a broad time series data set confirms this result. Sub-indices for agriculture and industry suggest that the German economy industrialized earlier than evidence from national accounting shows. The finding for the U.S. business cycle is that relaxing the assumption of constant structural parameters yields higher postwar aggregate volatility relative to the period before World War I. Concerning market integration, it is found that European wheat markets integrated faster before mid-19th century than after. Thus, the impact of the metal hull and steam ship as well as the relevance of American wheat for the world wheat market have perhaps been overstated.

Common critique of the Austrian business cycle theory states that the Austrian cycle could not be initiated under the rational expectations hypothesis. This thesis therefore investigates the role of price expectations of entrepreneurs in the Austrian cycle theory. We conclude that this theory might be compatible with rational expectations only under several assumptions. The rational expectations hypothesis is, however, evaluated rather critically concluding it is quite strong and unrealistic assumption. Various regimes of monetary policy are discusses in the context of price expectations.

This paper investigates a new category of influential factors on business cycle synchronization (BCS), so far hardly regarded in the BCS literature: It provides an empirical assessment of the impact of macroeconomic imbalances, as monitored by the European Commission by the scoreboard indicators since 2011, on BCS in the Euozone. We use a quarterly data set covering the period 2002-2012 and estimate the direct and indirect effects of macroeconomic imbalances in the pre- and post-crisis period in a simultaneous equations model. Business cycle correlation between EA members is measured by the recently proposed dynamic conditional correlation of Engle 2002 which can better identify synchronous and asynchronous behaviour of BC than the commonly used measures. We find that appearing differences between EA members in the current account, in government deficit and public debt, in private debt and unit labor cost developments have reduced BCS in the EA, even more in the post-crisis period than before. Moreover, these explanatory factors of BCS, generally reinforce each other and are also influenced by other critical macro imbalances. Since BCS is essential in a monetary union, this paper provides clear support that a stronger, common economic governance would be important for the functioning and survival of the Eurozone. (authors' abstract) / Series: Department of Economics Working Paper Series

達成或超越分析師的盈餘預期為公司重要目標之一，市場包括投資人或分析師對於公司達成盈餘預期目標的反應，一直為學界所關心。文獻發現達成盈餘預期目標的公司，確實享有較未達成目標者更高的股價報酬，顯示市場對此持有正面的反應，因為達成目標的公司，未來將有較佳的獲利能力。本文延伸文獻之探討，進一步考量經濟環境因素---景氣反轉，在這一議題上可能扮演的角色，亦即試圖探討景氣反轉時市場對公司達成或超越分析師盈餘預期的反應，以及達成盈餘預期目標的資訊內涵，會如何受到景氣反轉因素的影響。 實證結果發現達成或超越分析師盈餘預期事件所帶來的股價反應，不會受到景氣由上往下反轉的影響而有所差異，但分析師對此等事件的反應則會隨景氣由上往下反轉而更為強烈，在景氣由下往上反轉時則較無差異；至於此等事件所隱含公司未來將有較佳獲利能力的資訊內涵，雖不會隨著景氣由上往下反轉而有所差異，卻會隨著景氣由下往上反轉而更為增強。 / Meeting or beating analysts’ earnings forecasts is an important goal for the management to achieve. As a result, the market reaction to the meeting of earnings expectations has been intensively explored. In general, the meeting of earnings expectations signals brilliant future profitability to the investors. Following this line of research, this study further investigates the effect of business cycle on the relationship between market reaction and the meeting of earnings expectations. We find that the stock returns of firms meeting or beating analysts’ forecasts are not affected by the sudden downturn of the economy. On the contrary, analysts’ response to such events becomes stronger in the economic downturn though it remains the same when the economy rebounds. As for the issue of information content, meeting earnings expectations is more informative when the economy rebounds from recession but not in the downturn of the economy.

本研究以民國79年至民國87年為研究期間，探討當景氣出現波動時，企業是否有操縱盈餘的行為。首先探討景氣循環對企業經營績效的關連性，觀察不同產業企業之經營績效是否因景氣變動而有所差異。其次針對景氣循環與企業盈餘管理程度之關連性進行研究，探討不同產業企業盈餘管理的程於景氣擴張期與收縮期有無顯著的差異。 實證結果顯示：(1)整體而言，景氣循環與全體樣本公司之經營績效呈顯著的正向關係，個別產業而言，紡織業、塑化業及建築業在景氣擴張時期之經營績效顯著優於收縮時期；(2)當以ODACA（以總資產及成長率調整後與營業有關之裁決性應計項目的變動取絕對值）作為盈餘管理之代理變數探討景氣循環與盈餘管理之關聯性時，就全體樣本公司而言，企業在景氣處於收縮期的盈餘管理程度顯著大於擴張時期，就個別產業之分析結果，食品業及塑化業盈餘管理的程度於景氣收縮時期明顯大於擴張時期；(3)當以ODACS（以淨銷貨收入及成長率調整後與營業有關之裁決性應計項目的變動取絕對值）作為盈餘管理之替代變數探討景氣循環與盈餘管理之關聯性時，以整體樣本來說，企業在景氣處於收縮期的盈餘管理程度顯著大於擴張時期，觀察個別產業之情形顯示食品業、電機業及塑化業盈餘管理的程度在景氣收縮時期明顯高於景氣擴張時期；(4)當以NOI（(以總資產調整後業外收益變動取絕對值）作為盈餘管理之替代變數探討景氣循環與盈餘管理之關聯性時，就整體而言，樣本公司在景氣處於收縮期以業外淨損益操弄盈餘的程度顯著大於擴張時期，依個別產業觀察，電子業、電機業及建築業在景氣收縮時期利用業外損益管理盈餘的程度顯著高於擴張時期。 關鍵字：盈餘管理、經營績效、景氣循環 / Focusing on the firms listed on Taiwan Stock Exchange over the period of 1990 to 1998, this thesis investigates whether the sample firms manipulate earnings in the face of business cycle. First, this thesis examines the association between business cycle and corporate operating performance. Furthermore, it explores the relationship between business cycle and the magnitude of earnings management. The empirical results document that 1) business cycle is positively and significantly associated with the whole sample firms' operating performance and the relationship is founded in textile industry, plastic-chemical industry and construction industry. 2) When using the absolute value of changes of operating discretionary accruals adjusted by total assets and growth rate (ODACA) as a proxy variable for the magnitude earnings management, the empirical findings reveal that the ODACA of whole sample firms are significantly greater in contraction period than in expansion period. The results are also founded in food industry and plastic-chemical industry. 3) When using the absolute value of changes of operating discretionary accruals adjusted by net sales and growth rate (ODACS) as a proxy variable for the magnitude of earnings management, the empirical evidence indicates that the ODACS of all sample firms are significantly greater in contraction period than in expansion period. The evidence is also founded in food industry and plastic-chemical industry. 4) When using the absolute value of changes of non-operating income adjusted by total assets (NOI) as a proxy variable for the magnitude of earnings management, the empirical findings indicates that the NOI of all sample firms are significantly greater in contraction period than in expansion period. The results are also founded in electronic industry, electrical industry and construction industry. Key Words : earnings management, operating performance, business cycle

The way the economic reality is observed is essential in order to determine decision-making of economic subjects. The picture of economic reality drawn by accounting can be said to be either the true and fair, or biased. If the latter is the case, how much does that bias translate into the quality of economic decision-making? In summary, the paper analyzes whether accounting should provide the fair and true view whether it does, and how it affects the economic behavior when it does not on both micro-economic and macro-economic level. The arguments are built up on a logical structure rather taking a broader multidisciplinary approach to answer the previously stated questions.

The main goal of this thesis is to present the true explanation of the Great Depression, which will be the basis for the critical analysis of the current situation in developed economies. This thesis contains three chapters: the first presents the Austrian business cycle theory, which is then applied in the second chapter to the Great Depression. The third chapter deals with the critical analysis of the state and its economic policies, which seeks to answer the question, why the economic crises keep repeating, which is the partial goal of this thesis.

The question of business cycles is one of the most interesting topics of the economic policy. The period of economic recession influences most of the subjects in the economy. One of these subjects is a firm. In this thesis I discuss the question how economic depression impacts the value of a firm and how firms react to the recession, what are the consequences of their reactions and the results of these consequences at the macroeconomic level. To demonstrate the impact of the crisis I have evaluated the firm ACTIVA with Discounted Cash Flow Entity method in two different time frames, first evaluation was done before the crisis occurred and the second was done during the crisis. I conclude that the crisis causes a slowdown of the growth of the relevant market and therefore also of the revenues of the firm, it causes a fall in the economic results and not least the profit margin. As a result the value of the firm decreases to less than a half of its pre-crisis value. This proves that the view of a firm's value has significantly changed as a result of the crisis. The firm's behaviour has changed as well and whence it follows that the business cycle is a consequence of a changed behaviour of the economic subjects, which operate their behaviour according to the prices.

The thesis deals with monitoring and analysis of the economic cycle in Slovakia between 1993 - 2009. Its aim was to assess the impact of fiscal and monetary policies on the economic cycle. Both policies should cooperate with each other and create a favorable environment for economic development. The goal of the monetary policy should be securing currency stability. The fiscal policy should aim for stable development in public finance. The thesis consists of five parts, which intersect each other. The first part explains the theoretical foundations of the economic cycles. It is followed by a chapter, in which different Slovak economy phases of the economic cycle are analyzed, with the help of indicators of internal and external balance, demand and supply side of GDP and indicators of monetary conditions. Work also includes an assessment of Slovakia's entry into the EMU in terms of revenues and expenses. This part is also focused on the process of nominal and real convergence of the Slovak economy before adopting Euro. The penultimate part of this thesis deals with a comparison of business cycles of V4 countries. The conclusion is focused on forecasting the economic development of the Slovak economy in 2011.