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L'objectif de cette thèse est d'évaluer différents chocs extérieurs et des réformes de politique commerciale sur une petite économie ouverte comme l'Uruguay, en mettant l’accent sur la compréhension des canaux de transmission des chocs vers la répartition des revenus et la pauvreté. Plus précisément, j'évalue deux chocs externes –la récente crise financière et une augmentation des prix alimentaires et pétroliers- et une réforme de politique commerciale: la négociation d'un accord de libre-échange entre le Mercosur et l'Union Européenne. Pour ce faire, j’applique différents modèles d'équilibre général (EGC): deux modèles statiques uni-pays et un modèle global dynamique, MIRAGE-HH, qui comprend une désagrégation des ménages. Les modèles EGC sont combinées avec des techniques de microsimulation: microsimulation non-paramétrique et méthode «micro-accounting». Comme les chocs extérieurs peuvent avoir un impact négatif sur la pauvreté en Uruguay, j’évalue aussi les options politiques visant à atténuer cet impact négatif. Les résultats montrent que les canaux de transmission des réformes de politique commerciale et des chocs extérieurs sont divers et complexes et ils peuvent avoir des effets opposés sur la pauvreté. Ils mettent également en évidence le fait que l'impact sur les différents groupes de population n'est pas uniforme. Dans certains cas, les chocs positifs sur l'économie peuvent encore nuire à des groupes de population. Dans la plupart des cas, les groupes affectés négativement sont les populations déjà vulnérables ayant peu de ressources pour faire face à ces chocs. Pour cette raison, il est important d'évaluer aussi des réponses politiques pour éviter cet impact négatif sur les pauvres. / The aim of this dissertation is to evaluate different external shocks and trade policies on a small open economy such as Uruguay, making an emphasis in understanding the channels of transmission of the shocks to income distribution and poverty in the country. Specifically, I evaluate two external shocks –the recent financial crisis and an increase in food and oil prices- and one trade policy –the negotiation of a free trade agreement between MERCOSUR (conformed by Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) and the European Union. For doing so, I apply different general equilibrium models: two different static single country models and one global dynamic model, MIRAGE-HH, which includes household disaggregation. The CGE models are combined with microsimulation techniques: non-parametric microsimulations and micro-accounting methods. Results show that the channels of transmission of trade policies and external shocks are diverse and complex and they may have opposite effects on welfare and poverty. They also highlight the fact that the impact on different population groups is not even. In some cases, positive shocks on the economy may still harm population groups. In most cases,iiithey are the already vulnerable population who count with fewer resources to counteract negative shocks. For this reason, it is important to also evaluate policy responses to prevent this negative impact on the poor.

This paper analyses the effects of enhanced trade between Austria and its four neighbouring Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Slovenia) on sectoral production and regional welfare in Austria. The analysis is based on two distinct modelling traditions at the centre of regional science. The first model (a Fischer-Johansson Model of bilateral trade flows) is used to predict the volume and commodity composition of future trade flows based on a long term income scenario. The predicted long-term increases of the trade flows are huge. Exports rise by 190 % and imports by 160 % (compared to 1995). The effects of these trade flows on sectoral production and regional welfare in Austria are simulated by means of a multiregional computable general equilibrium model for the Austrian economy. The model contains the 9 Federal Provinces (NUTS-II). The likely implications of the projected trade flows are measured in terms of real income, which can be expected to rise by 1.2 %. The welfare gains will not necesarily be shared equally by all Federal Provinces. The results indicate a clear East-West pattern with the eastern regions of Austria gaining most. (authors' abstract) / Series: Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience

Submitted by Renata Lopes (renatasil82@gmail.com) on 2016-07-22T18:07:48Z No. of bitstreams: 1 ramongoulartcunha.pdf: 1428682 bytes, checksum: 586dd29c2871c103ab232e4a01a40830 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-07-25T16:32:00Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 ramongoulartcunha.pdf: 1428682 bytes, checksum: 586dd29c2871c103ab232e4a01a40830 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-07-25T16:32:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ramongoulartcunha.pdf: 1428682 bytes, checksum: 586dd29c2871c103ab232e4a01a40830 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-04-08 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / FAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais / O objetivo desta dissertação consiste em avaliar os possíveis desdobramentos da política de expansão das exportações brasileiras para com os mercados latino-americanos. De forma específica, pretende-se analisar quais seriam os prováveis desfechos macroeconômicos e setoriais da busca por maior inserção e competitividade das exportações brasileiras na região da América Latina e Caribe. A partir de um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (EGC) (LATES-BR (Perobelli et al., 2015), os vínculos intersetoriais, bem como os efeitos de segunda ordem e substituição, são considerados nas projeções. O Plano Nacional de Exportações 20152018 (PNE 2015-2018) serve como base, na medida em que relaciona os produtos e mercados em potencial na região. Os principais resultados alcançados apontam para uma variação positiva sobre o Produto Interno Bruto (PIB) em aproximadamente 0,15 a 0,16%, e sugerem um aumento entre 0,11 e 0,13% para o emprego agregado, no curto prazo. Por sua vez, no ambiente econômico de longo prazo, o PIB tende a crescer de 0,18 a 0,20%, e o salário real possivelmente se eleva de 0,49 a 0,50%. Em termos setoriais, os produtos com maiores demandas por ganhos de eficiência produtiva (isto é, com maiores exigências por aumento de produtividade) corresponde à Óleos e gorduras vegetais e animais, Carne de suíno, Bovinos e outros animais vivos, Produtos de madeira, exclusive móveis, Defensivos agrícolas e desinfetantes domissanitários, Produtos químicos diversos, Automóveis, camionetas e utilitários e Caminhões e ônibus, inclusive cabines, carrocerias e reboques. Em virtude da heterogeneidade no que tange a intensidade e substituição no uso dos fatores primários, às variações sobre a produtividade podem ser maiores (ou menores) a depender do modo como se dá a melhoria de eficiência produtiva (de modo geral, somente pelo trabalho ou exclusivamente pelo capital). Um exemplo se aplica ao Minério de ferro, que por ser intensivo no uso do fator capital exige um esforço produtivo muito elevado quando o ganho de eficiência produtiva se dá pelo trabalho. Destarte, acredita-se que as técnicas utilizadas nesta dissertação, assim como os resultados nela projetados, possam servir de instrumento para os agentes da política comercial brasileira. Em destaque, nas discussões sobre factibilidade e efeitos das políticas de comércio e metas traçadas (ou a serem traçadas) no PNE 2015-2018. / The aim of this work is to evaluate the possible consequences of the expansion of Brazilian exports policy towards the Latin American markets. Specifically, it intends to analyze what are the likely macroeconomic and sectoral outcomes of the search for greater integration and competitiveness of Brazilian exports in the Latin American and Caribbean region. From a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model (LATES-BR (Perobelli et al., 2015), intersectoral linkages, as well as second-round effects and replacement, are considered in the projections. The National Export Plan 2015-2018 (PNE 2015-2018) serves as a reference to the extent that relates potential products and markets in the region. The main results point to a positive growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by about 0.15 to 0.16%, and suggest an increase between 0.11 and 0.13% for the aggregate employment in the short run. In turn, the long run economic environment, the GDP tends to increase from 0.18 to 0.20%, and salary real possibly rises from 0.49 to 0.50%. In terms of sectors, products with higher demands for productive efficiencies (i.e., with greater demands for increased productivity) match Oils and vegetable and animal fats, Pork, Cattle and other live animals, wood products, furniture exclusive, Pesticides and household cleaning disinfectants, Various chemicals products, Cars, trucks and SUVs and trucks and buses, including cabins, truck bodies and trailers. Because of heterogeneity regarding the intensity and replace the use of primary factors, the variations on productivity may be higher (or lower) depending on the way how is the improvement of production efficiency (generally, only at work or only by capital). An example applies to the iron ore, which should be intensive in the use of capital factor requires a very high productive effort when the gain productive efficiency is through work. Thus, it is believed that the techniques used in this work, as well as the results designed from this work can serve as a tool for agents of Brazil's trade policy. Highlighted in discussions about feasibility and effects of trade policies and targets set (or to be traced) in the PNE 2015-2018.

Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture in Ethiopia. The study shows, in worst case scenario, the effects on national GDP may add up to -8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor markets and transaction costs may offset about 20-30% of the ripple effects of climate change. Therefore, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. Nevertheless, given the role of agriculture in the current economic structure of the country and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change, adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate change may hamper economic progress of the country, and make rural livelihood unpredictable.

Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change induced productivity and labor supply shocks in agriculture in Ethiopia. The study shows, in worst case scenario, the effects on national GDP may add up to -8% with uneven regional effects ranging from -10% in agrarian regions (e.g. Amhara) to +2.5% in urbanized regions (e.g. Addis Ababa). Cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor markets and transaction costs may offset about 20-30% of the ripple effects of climate change. Therefore, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. Nevertheless, given the role of agriculture in the current economic structure of the country and the potency of biophysical impacts of climate change, adaptation in the sector is indispensable. Otherwise, climate change may hamper economic progress of the country, and make rural livelihood unpredictable.

EMEC är en allmänjämviktsmodell som har använts av Konjunkturinstitutet för att beräkna samhällsekonomiska kostnader av styrmedel, och utvärdera kostnadseffektivitet som en del av det svenska klimatpolitiska beslutsunderlaget. Med anledning av kritik som har riktats mot modellen har detta examensarbete syftat till att analysera EMEC och dess effekter i klimatpolitiken, samt belysa och diskutera aspekter som eventuellt behövs utvecklas eller hanteras på ett annat sätt i den svenska klimatpolicyutvärderingen. En intervju - och litteraturstudie bidrog med ett kontrasterande aktörsperspektiv på olika identifierade nyckelaspekter som sedan utgjorde ett ramverk för analysen av en efterföljande empirisk studie. Resultaten visar att det finns starka skäl att påstå att modellen har överskattat kostnader av utsläppsminskningar vilket sannolikt har påverkat Sveriges klimatpolitiska inriktning. I direkt anknytning till modellen argumenteras detta bero på svårigheten i att göra antaganden om framtida teknik-och prisutvecklingar, samt på modellens statiska utformning. I samband med modellens klimatpolitiska roll kan det argumenteras bero på ett relativt kortsiktigt tidsperspektiv och en endimensionell bedömning av klimatomställningens nytta i relation till klimatfrågans långsiktighet och flerdimensionella nyttosida. Det kan också påpekas att detta fördyrar klimatpolitiken på lång sikt. En alternativ klimatpolicyutvärdering tillämpar ett bredare grepp genom att exempelvis inkludera de dynamiska kostnader som är förknippade med inlåsningseffekter i kolintensiva strukturer, vilket med en kontrafaktisk jämförelse sänker kostnaden av en klimatpolicy. Vid fortsatt styrmedelsutvärdering med EMEC föreslås en förändring av hur resultaten ska tolkas. Givet att det politiska sammanhanget också fortsättningsvis kräver kvantitativa underlag finns det ett behov av en mer varierad klimatpolicyutvärdering, där också kvalitativa aspekter och fler indikatorer än BNP beaktas som komplement. / EMEC is a computational general equilibrium (CGE) model used for calculation of societal costs and evaluation of cost-effectiveness in the decision basis of Swedish climate policy. The model has been criticized for exaggerating societal costs of policies, exemplified by Sweden's relative decoupling of GDP and carbon dioxide emissions during 1990-2010. Thereby, one could argue that the model results possibly have led to less ambitious climate targets in Sweden. With the model's suitability being questioned and an expressed need for better climate policy evaluation, this master thesis aims to analyse EMEC and its effects on Sweden's climate policy. It also aims to highlight key aspects for improved climate policy evaluation. Literature and interview studies were conducted in order to form a balanced framework of different actors' perspectives on the issue. This related to several identified aspects that were considered important by the authors in the context of the EMEC model. The subsequent empirical study of three periods of Swedish climate-political processes used these results as a basis for discussion. The results imply that the critique about exaggerated costs very likely is justified, which probably also has affected Sweden's climate-political direction. Regarding the model itself, the principal reasons are argued to be its static nature and the difficulties associated with predicting future technological- and world-market price developments. Connected to the model's role, the principal reasons are argued to be rooted in its relatively short-term perspective and one-dimensional definition of benefits, compared to the long-term and multi-dimensional nature of a transition to a low-carbon society. These features have, in this study, been argued to weaken the long-term cost-effectiveness of Sweden's climate policy. The EMEC-model's principal effects in this respect have been constituted in the arguments for general policies over sector-specific goals as well as emission reductions abroad. An alternative evaluation framework would include a wider range of benefits and costs associated with climate policy, for example dynamic costs of lock-in effects in carbon intensive structures. This would decrease the costs of climate policy in a counter-factual comparison. It could be argued that a qualitative decision basis would be more appropriate considering the complexities and difficulties associated with modelling a largely uncertain future. Especially, since model results are based on the same historic trends that need to be abandoned in order to reach future climate targets. However, considering that the climate-political process demands a quantitative decision-basis, qualitative aspects should function as a complement and gain increased emphasis in the Swedish climate- political decision basis. This would purposively broaden the framework and serve as a necessary balance to the indications given by results on GDP. Given that the EMEC model to some extent continues to constitute a basis for climate policy, suggestions for alternative interpretations of the model results have also been provided.

Die Dissertation befasst sich mit der Erweiterung und Anwendung des allgemeinen räumlichen Gleichgewicht- und Transportmodells RELU-TRAN (Anas und Liu, 2007) und analysiert verschiedene verkehrs- und klimabezogene Politikmaßnahmen (Tempo-30 in Städten, Infrastrukturqualität, Anpassung an den Klimawandel) in einer Stadtökonomie.

This dissertation contains three essays on environmental economics and on credit market imperfections. The literature on carbon tax incidence generally finds that carbon taxes have a regressive impact on the distribution of income. The main reason for that finding stems from the fact that poor households spend a larger share of their total expenditure on energy products than the rich households do. This literature, however, has ignored the impact of carbon taxes on income stemming from changes in relative factor prices. Yet, changes in household welfare depend not only on variations in commodity prices, but also on changes in income. Chapter 1 provides a comprehensive analysis of the distributional impact of carbon taxes on inequality by considering both demand-side and supply-side channels. We use a multi-sector, multi-household general equilibrium model to analyze the distributional impact of carbon taxes on inequality. Using equivalent income as the household welfare metric, we apply the Shapley value and concentration index approaches to decomposing household inequality. Our simulation results suggest that carbon taxes exert a larger negative impact on the income of the rich than that of the poor, and are thereby progressive. On the other hand, when assessed from the use side alone (i.e., commodity prices alone), our results confirm previous findings, whereas carbon taxes are regressive. However, due to the stronger incidence of carbon taxes on inequality from the income side, our results suggest that the carbon tax tends to reduce inequality. These findings further suggest that the traditional approach of assessing the impact of carbon taxes on inequality through changes in commodity prices alone may be misleading. Chapter 2 investigates the economic impacts of creating an emissions bubble between Canada and the US in a context of subglobal participation in efforts to reduce pollution with market based-instruments. One of the advantages of an emissions bubble is that it can be beneficial to countries that differ in their production and consumption patterns. To address the competitiveness issue that arises from the free-rider problem in the area of climate-change mitigation, we consider the imposition of a border tax adjustment (BTA) - a commonly suggested solution in the literature. We develop a detailed multisector and multi-regional general equilibrium model to analyze the welfare, aggregate, sectoral and trade impacts of the formation of an emissions bubble between Canada and the US with and without BTA. Our simulation results suggest that, in the absence of BTA, the creation of the bubble would make both countries better off through a positive terms-of-trade effect, and more importantly, through a significant reduction in Canada’s marginal abatement cost. The benefits of these positive effects would spill over to the non-participating countries, leading them to increase their trade shares in non-emissions-intensive goods. Moreover, the simulation results also indicate that a unilateral implementation of a BTA by any one of the two countries is welfare deteriorating in the imposing country and welfare improving in the other. In contrast, a joint implementation of a BTA by the two countries would make Canada better off and the US worse off. Chapter 3 shows that learning by lending is a potential channel of understanding the business cycle fluctuation under an imperfect credit market. An endogenous link among the learning parameter, lending rates, and the size of investment makes it possible to generate an internal propagation even due to a temporary shock. The main finding of this chapter is the explanation of how ex post non-financial factors such as information losses by individual agents in a credit market may account for a persistence in real indicators such as capital stock and output.

This dissertation contains three essays on environmental economics and on credit market imperfections. The literature on carbon tax incidence generally finds that carbon taxes have a regressive impact on the distribution of income. The main reason for that finding stems from the fact that poor households spend a larger share of their total expenditure on energy products than the rich households do. This literature, however, has ignored the impact of carbon taxes on income stemming from changes in relative factor prices. Yet, changes in household welfare depend not only on variations in commodity prices, but also on changes in income. Chapter 1 provides a comprehensive analysis of the distributional impact of carbon taxes on inequality by considering both demand-side and supply-side channels. We use a multi-sector, multi-household general equilibrium model to analyze the distributional impact of carbon taxes on inequality. Using equivalent income as the household welfare metric, we apply the Shapley value and concentration index approaches to decomposing household inequality. Our simulation results suggest that carbon taxes exert a larger negative impact on the income of the rich than that of the poor, and are thereby progressive. On the other hand, when assessed from the use side alone (i.e., commodity prices alone), our results confirm previous findings, whereas carbon taxes are regressive. However, due to the stronger incidence of carbon taxes on inequality from the income side, our results suggest that the carbon tax tends to reduce inequality. These findings further suggest that the traditional approach of assessing the impact of carbon taxes on inequality through changes in commodity prices alone may be misleading. Chapter 2 investigates the economic impacts of creating an emissions bubble between Canada and the US in a context of subglobal participation in efforts to reduce pollution with market based-instruments. One of the advantages of an emissions bubble is that it can be beneficial to countries that differ in their production and consumption patterns. To address the competitiveness issue that arises from the free-rider problem in the area of climate-change mitigation, we consider the imposition of a border tax adjustment (BTA) - a commonly suggested solution in the literature. We develop a detailed multisector and multi-regional general equilibrium model to analyze the welfare, aggregate, sectoral and trade impacts of the formation of an emissions bubble between Canada and the US with and without BTA. Our simulation results suggest that, in the absence of BTA, the creation of the bubble would make both countries better off through a positive terms-of-trade effect, and more importantly, through a significant reduction in Canada’s marginal abatement cost. The benefits of these positive effects would spill over to the non-participating countries, leading them to increase their trade shares in non-emissions-intensive goods. Moreover, the simulation results also indicate that a unilateral implementation of a BTA by any one of the two countries is welfare deteriorating in the imposing country and welfare improving in the other. In contrast, a joint implementation of a BTA by the two countries would make Canada better off and the US worse off. Chapter 3 shows that learning by lending is a potential channel of understanding the business cycle fluctuation under an imperfect credit market. An endogenous link among the learning parameter, lending rates, and the size of investment makes it possible to generate an internal propagation even due to a temporary shock. The main finding of this chapter is the explanation of how ex post non-financial factors such as information losses by individual agents in a credit market may account for a persistence in real indicators such as capital stock and output.