A maioria dos trabalhos sobre o impacto macroeconômico da abertura da conta de capital não encontra nenhum efeito da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais. No entanto, uma leitura cuidadosa desta literatura revela que a maioria destes estudos não trata realmente da teoria que se propõe a testar. Aqueles que defendem um impacto positivo da liberalização financeira sobre o crescimento econômico aceitam as previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico de redução permanente no custo do capital e aumento temporário no investimento nos mercados emergentes, quando estes liberalizam suas contas de capital. A maior parte dos artigos que não encontram efeitos da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais não testa estas previsões. Uma ramificação pequena, mas crescente, desta literatura sobre a relação entre liberalização da conta de capital e crescimento econômico, que leva em conta a natureza temporal das previsões do modelo neoclássico (os artigos que adotam o chamado enfoque do experimento de política), encontra evidências de que a abertura da conta de capital em um país emergente gera efeitos significativos sobre o investimento e crescimento econômico. A desagregação dos dados, ou seja, a aplicação do enfoque do experimento de política a dados de firmas, fornece uma ligação mais forte com a teoria e graus de liberdade suficientes para se adotar uma nova estratégia de identificação que permite testar a eficiência na alocação dos recursos dentro do país em desenvolvimento que abriu sua conta de capital. O objetivo desta dissertação é tratar das teorias e evidências do impacto da liberalização da conta de capital nos países emergentes sobre o crescimento de suas economias, analisando-se as metodologias empíricas existentes aplicadas no teste desta relação, enfatizando as teorias que dão suporte a seus testes empíricos, bem como suas principais descobertas. Os efeitos da abertura da conta de capital no Brasil, na década de 90, serão analisados, utilizando-se uma estratégia de identificação recente a partir de dados de firmas, para se checar a validade empírica das previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico nesta situação. / Most writings on the macroeconomic impact of capital account openness find no effects of liberalization on real variables. However, a critical reading of this literature reveals that most of these studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. Those who defend a positive impact of financial liberalization on economic growth accept the neoclassical growth model’s predictions of permanent reduction on the cost of capital and temporary increase in investment in emerging markets when they liberalize their capital account. The lion’s share of papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables do not test these predictions. A small but growing branch of this literature on the relationship between capital account liberalization and economic growth that takes the time series nature of the neoclassical model’s predictions seriously (papers that adopt the policy-experiment approach) find that opening the capital account within an emerging country generates significant effects on investment and economic growth. Disaggregating the data, that is to say, applying the policy-experiment approach to firm-level data, provides a tighter link to the theory than aggregate data and enough degrees of freedom to adopt a new identification strategy that allows of the test on the efficiency of capital allocation within the developing country that opened its capital account. The objective of this dissertation is to address the theories and evidences of the impact of capital account liberalization in emerging countries on their economic growth, analyzing the existing empirical methodologies applied to test this relationship, emphasizing the theories that support their empirical tests as well as their main findings. The effects of capital account opening in Brazil, in the 90’s, will be analyzed, using the recent firm-level data identification strategy, to check the empirical validity of the neoclassical growth model’s predictions in this situation.

A maioria dos trabalhos sobre o impacto macroeconômico da abertura da conta de capital não encontra nenhum efeito da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais. No entanto, uma leitura cuidadosa desta literatura revela que a maioria destes estudos não trata realmente da teoria que se propõe a testar. Aqueles que defendem um impacto positivo da liberalização financeira sobre o crescimento econômico aceitam as previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico de redução permanente no custo do capital e aumento temporário no investimento nos mercados emergentes, quando estes liberalizam suas contas de capital. A maior parte dos artigos que não encontram efeitos da liberalização sobre as variáveis reais não testa estas previsões. Uma ramificação pequena, mas crescente, desta literatura sobre a relação entre liberalização da conta de capital e crescimento econômico, que leva em conta a natureza temporal das previsões do modelo neoclássico (os artigos que adotam o chamado enfoque do experimento de política), encontra evidências de que a abertura da conta de capital em um país emergente gera efeitos significativos sobre o investimento e crescimento econômico. A desagregação dos dados, ou seja, a aplicação do enfoque do experimento de política a dados de firmas, fornece uma ligação mais forte com a teoria e graus de liberdade suficientes para se adotar uma nova estratégia de identificação que permite testar a eficiência na alocação dos recursos dentro do país em desenvolvimento que abriu sua conta de capital. O objetivo desta dissertação é tratar das teorias e evidências do impacto da liberalização da conta de capital nos países emergentes sobre o crescimento de suas economias, analisando-se as metodologias empíricas existentes aplicadas no teste desta relação, enfatizando as teorias que dão suporte a seus testes empíricos, bem como suas principais descobertas. Os efeitos da abertura da conta de capital no Brasil, na década de 90, serão analisados, utilizando-se uma estratégia de identificação recente a partir de dados de firmas, para se checar a validade empírica das previsões do modelo de crescimento neoclássico nesta situação. / Most writings on the macroeconomic impact of capital account openness find no effects of liberalization on real variables. However, a critical reading of this literature reveals that most of these studies do not really address the theory they set out to test. Those who defend a positive impact of financial liberalization on economic growth accept the neoclassical growth model’s predictions of permanent reduction on the cost of capital and temporary increase in investment in emerging markets when they liberalize their capital account. The lion’s share of papers that find no effect of liberalization on real variables do not test these predictions. A small but growing branch of this literature on the relationship between capital account liberalization and economic growth that takes the time series nature of the neoclassical model’s predictions seriously (papers that adopt the policy-experiment approach) find that opening the capital account within an emerging country generates significant effects on investment and economic growth. Disaggregating the data, that is to say, applying the policy-experiment approach to firm-level data, provides a tighter link to the theory than aggregate data and enough degrees of freedom to adopt a new identification strategy that allows of the test on the efficiency of capital allocation within the developing country that opened its capital account. The objective of this dissertation is to address the theories and evidences of the impact of capital account liberalization in emerging countries on their economic growth, analyzing the existing empirical methodologies applied to test this relationship, emphasizing the theories that support their empirical tests as well as their main findings. The effects of capital account opening in Brazil, in the 90’s, will be analyzed, using the recent firm-level data identification strategy, to check the empirical validity of the neoclassical growth model’s predictions in this situation.

Malgré la diversité des études théoriques et empiriques, la problématique de la relation compte capital – croissance économique reste une question controversée. L’objet de ce travail de recherche consiste donc à expliciter la nature d’une telle relation dans les économies de la région MENA, tout en tenant compte de la qualité institutionnelle. Dans ce contexte, les différentes estimations ont été effectuées par la méthode des moments généralisés (GMM), sur la période allant de 1986 à 2012, pour 11 pays. Les résultats montrent que la corruption et la responsabilité démocratique influencent négativement la croissance économique si la politique de la libéralisation du compte capital est adoptée. Cependant, le terme d'interaction entre la qualité bureaucratique et l'ouverture financière stimulent positivement la croissance économique. Ces résultats suggèrent alors que les avantages de la libéralisation du compte capital sont conditionnés par les facteurs institutionnels. De ce fait, notre thèse contribue aux débats politiques récents sur les mérites et les démérites de la libéralisation du compte capital. En ce qui concerne le lien entre la libéralisation du compte capital et le développement financier en Tunisie, les différentes estimations ont été effectuées par l’approche autorégressive à retards échelonnés (ARDL), sur la période allant de 1986 à 2014. Les résultats obtenus montrent que l’effet positif de l’ouverture sur le développement financier est bien plus important à long terme qu’à court terme. Par ailleurs, les résultats confirment l’impact négatif de la corruption sur le système financier tunisien. / Despite the diversity of theoretical and empirical studies, the question of capital account–economic growth relationship remains a controversial issue. This research aims to complete the existing evidence focusing on MENA countries, while taking into account the institutional quality. In this context, various estimates were made by generalized method of moments (GMM) over the period of 1986–2012 for 11 countries. The results show that corruption and democratic accountability have a significant and negative impact on economic growth if capital account liberalization is enacted. However, the interaction term of bureaucracy quality and financial openness has a significant and positive impact on economic growth. These findings therefore show that the benefits of capital account liberalization are not unconditional, but are likely to depend upon the environment in which the liberalization occurs. Hence, our thesis contributes to the recent policy debates on the merits and demerits of capital account liberalization. As regards the link between capital account liberalization and financial development in Tunisia, the various estimates were made by the autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) over the period 1986 to 2014. The results show that the positive effect of opening on financial development is much more important in the long term than in the short term. Moreover, the results confirm the negative impact of corruption on the Tunisian financial system.

La présente thèse a pour objectif d'analyser le rôle des institutions sur la croissance économique, et notamment sur l'attractivité et l'effet des investissements directs étrangers (IDE). Pour cela, nous avons utilisé douze indicateurs de mesure de la qualité des institutions et testé leurs effets en retenant un échantillon important de pays développés, en voie de développement et en transition. Notre démarche se décline en trois chapitres. Le chapitre 1 est consacré à l'évaluation de l'effet direct des institutions sur la croissance économique en fonction du niveau de développement des pays étudiés. Les résultats montrent que la qualité des institutions a un effet plus important sur la croissance dans les pays à revenu intermédiaire, en particulier la stabilité politique et la lutte contre la corruption. Pour les pays à revenu élevé le facteur le plus déterminant est le respect des lois et des contrats. Le chapitre 2 analyse l'effet indirect des institutions sur la croissance à travers les IDE. Les résultats mettent en évidence l'existence des seuils institutionnels qui conditionnent l'effet des IDE sur la croissance selon la situation géographique et le niveau de développement des pays. Il ressort notamment que la lutte contre la corruption et l'amélioration de la démocratie sont les canaux travers lesquels les IDE favorisent la croissance dans les pays d'Afrique du Nord et du Moyen-Orient et d'Asie, la stabilité d gouvernement et le respect des contrats étant les plus importants dans les pays d'Europe et d'Amérique. Le chapitre 3 s'intéresse à l'effet de l'ouverture financière et du développement financier sur l'attractivité des IDE en mettant e évidence le rôle des institutions. Les résultats montrent que pour les pays qui ont libéralisé leur compte de capital, l'entrée d'IDE est plus importante lorsqu'ils disposent d'une bonne qualité institutionnelle. De la même manière, l'attractivité des IDE est favorisée par 1 passif liquide des banques et les crédits au secteur privé, mais il est moindre pour les pays dotés d'importantes ressources naturelle: Les résultats soulignent l'existence d'un seuil institutionnel à partir duquel le poids de la capitalisation boursière et des litres échangé en bourse favorisent l'attractivité des IDE. La confrontation des résultats des chapitres 2 et 3 permet d'avancer que le seuil institutionnel à travers lequel le développement financier améliore l'attractivité des IDE est plus élevé que le seuil à travers lequel les IDE impactent la croissance. Dans les pays e développement en particulier, la qualité des institutions constitue une contrainte plus sévère en termes d'attractivité qu'en termes d'effet des IDE sur la croissance. / This thesis aims to investigate the role of institutions on economic growth, specifically through the attractiveness and the impact of Foreign Direct lnvestment. For this, we use twelve measures of the institutional quality and we test their effects using a set of developed, developing and transition countries. Our approach is divided into three parts. Chapter 1 analyzes the direct effect of institutions on economic growth by level of development of countries. Results show that the quality of institutions has a greater effect on growth in middle-income countries, particularly the effects of political stability and fightinç against corruption. For high-income countries, the most important factors are respect of laws and contracts. Chapter 2 examines the indirect effect of institutions on growth through FDI. Results highlight the existence of institutional thresholds that condition the effect of FDI on economic growth by countries and by level of incarne. It appears that fighting against corruption an improving democracy are the mechanisms through which FDI promotes growth in the MENA and the Asia group, and through the respect of contracts and government stability in the Europe and the America group. Chapter 3 assesses the effect of financial openness and financial development on the attractiveness of FDI by highlighting the role o institutions. Results indicate that countries that have opened their capital account have received more FDI inflows and the effect is higher in countries with good institutional quality. Similarly, FDI attractiveness is enhanced by liquid liabilities and credit to the private sector but is lower in natural resouce endowed countries. The results highlight that countries are able to attract FDI through stock market capitalization and traded only above an institutional threshold. We highlight in this thesis that the institutional level through which financial development impact the attractiveness of FDI is higher than the institutional level through which FDI contributes to growth. ln the developing group, the quality of institutions is an important constraint in term of attractiveness than in terms of the effect of FDI on GDP growth.

本論文的研究含括了墨西哥金融危機、亞洲金融危機與俄羅斯金融危機，主要是希望能歸納出90年代新興市場國家發生金融危機的普遍性原因。首先本論文先探討分析文獻上三大類型的金融危機理論，含括金融危機可預測與不可預測的原因。本論文試圖將可預測的經濟基本面歸為內部因素，不可預測的國際資金變動歸為外部因素。當一新興市場國家正在從事經濟結構改革或經濟轉型，而資本市場架構與金融機構監督機制與規範都尚未健全時，如果該國將金融市場自由化並允許大筆外資流入國內金融體系，則短期、投機性國際資金將會扭曲金融結構，造成經濟基本面的惡化。當不可預測的國際資金環境轉變時，一方面受到資金逆流衝擊著脆弱的金融部門，另一方面已經不健全的經濟基本面將嚴重惡化。此時政府採取的提高利率政策與賣出外匯捍衛本國釘住匯率制，卻會同時嚴重傷及本國銀行體系，促使金融機構面臨倒閉、陷入流動性不足的危機，結果投資者的信心仍然潰散而國內則造成金融體系的崩潰，終而引發全面性的金融危機。在建立了初步的研究假設後，我們以墨西哥金融危機與亞洲金融危機作為驗證。我們的研究案例中將包括危機發生的國家與當時未發生危機的國家作為對照組。在墨西哥危機，我們以智利作為對照組。在亞洲五國危機（印尼、韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓與泰國），我們以中國大陸、新加坡、台灣作為對照組。在確立了我們的理論模型後，我們以個案研究的方式深入瞭解俄羅斯特殊的轉型經濟體質。俄羅斯激烈的經濟結構改革措施，使國家從金融封閉整合入世界資本市場。俄羅斯面臨著外資大量流入金融市場，然而總體經濟面卻在財政與貨幣政策相互矛盾的狀況下，實質經濟依舊無法發展起來，而金融體質嚴重惡化的情況。俄羅斯的案例也同樣證明本論文的論點，一個新興市場國家資本帳的開放必須有其先決條件且循序漸進的開放。一國能否將國際資金導入對於實質產業有所助益的直接投資，是新興市場國家所面臨的重要課題。不然，資本自由化先決條件的不足而快速地實施自由化，將只是加速金融危機的到來。 / This research has included the financial crises of Mexico, Asia and Russia, mainly expecting to conclude the general causes for the financial crises of emerging market economies in the 1990s. First, the paper reviews the three types of theoretical literature on financial crises, including predictable and unpredictable causes. This thesis tries to refer to the predictable economic fundamental part as internal factors, and the unpredictable, international capital mobility as external factors. When an emerging market country is engaged in economic structural reform or economic transition, and when the capital-market architecture and the system of financial-sector supervision and regulation are not sound, if the country liberalize financial market and allow large-scale foreign capital to inflow into domestic financial system, then short-term, speculative international capital will deteriorate financial structure and the economic fundamentals will become worse. When the environment of unpredictable international capital changes, on the one hand, the withdrawal of foreign capital impacts the vulnerable financial sector, and on the other hand, the unhealthy economic fundamentals will become seriously worse. At the same time, the government takes measures to raise interest rates and to sell foreign currency to defend the pegged exchange rate, which will seriously weaken the banking system, causing the bankrupt and the crisis of illiquidity. As a result, the confidence of investors will crash down and the native financial institutions will collapse, and this gives rise to the financial crisis in large scale. After the presumption of this research, we take Mexican and Asian financial crises for example. We try to give corresponding cases for contrast. In Mexican crisis, we take Chile as a contradistinctive group. In five Asian country crises (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philip, and Thailand), we take China, Singapore, and Taiwan as a contradistinctive group. After proving our model, we try to take Russia as a case study because of the special nature of economic transformation of Russia. The policy of drastic structural economic reform has made Russia step from the financial isolation to the integration into World’s capital market. Russia faces the large-scale foreign capital inflow in the financial market, while the real economy can not recover and domestic financial institutions become structurally weak because of the contradiction of the fiscal and monetary policy. The case of Russia also shows us the argument of this thesis--capital-account liberalization of an emerging market must depend on its prerequisites and steadiness of liberalization. When a nation can make proper use of the capital, conducting foreign investment to real economy is the important challenge of an emerging market. Otherwise, the capital-account liberalization will speed up the coming of financial crisis.

The aim of this research is to show the effects of financial liberalisation on emerging market economies, how these economies removed restrictions on financial institutions so that they can be globally integrated, and to show the flow of international finance in and out of a country. This research also illustrates how the financial system in these economies moved from being government-led to being market-led. The main finding of this research is that many countries failed to reap the benefits of liberalisation because of weaknesses in the regulatory structure, undercapitalised banks, volatile markets and contagion effects. The research concludes that the long-term gains of liberalisation certainly supersede short-term instability of liberalisation. Thus, for financial liberalisation to have predominantly positive effects, attention should be drawn to the importance of a more prudent regulatory and supervisory environment. Furthermore, financial liberalisation must be accompanied by a sound institutional infrastructure, proper conduct of monetary and fiscal policies, a reduction in corruption, and an increase in transparency. In addition, liberalisation should be a gradual process whereby the right measures are taken in the right sequence. / Economics / M. Comm. (Economics)

The aim of this research is to show the effects of financial liberalisation on emerging market economies, how these economies removed restrictions on financial institutions so that they can be globally integrated, and to show the flow of international finance in and out of a country. This research also illustrates how the financial system in these economies moved from being government-led to being market-led. The main finding of this research is that many countries failed to reap the benefits of liberalisation because of weaknesses in the regulatory structure, undercapitalised banks, volatile markets and contagion effects. The research concludes that the long-term gains of liberalisation certainly supersede short-term instability of liberalisation. Thus, for financial liberalisation to have predominantly positive effects, attention should be drawn to the importance of a more prudent regulatory and supervisory environment. Furthermore, financial liberalisation must be accompanied by a sound institutional infrastructure, proper conduct of monetary and fiscal policies, a reduction in corruption, and an increase in transparency. In addition, liberalisation should be a gradual process whereby the right measures are taken in the right sequence. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)