Sedimentary deposits have been broadly used to constrain past climate change and tectonic histories within mountain belts. This dissertation summarizes three studies that evaluate the effects of climate change and tectonics on sedimentary basin development. (1) The paleoslope estimation method, a method for calculating the threshold slope of a fluvial deposit, does not account for the stochastic variations in water depth in alluvial channels caused by climatic and autogenic processes. Therefore, we test the robustness of applying the paleoslope estimation method in a tectonic context. Based on our numerical modeling results, we conclude that if given sufficient time gravel can prograde long distances at regional slopes less than the minimum transport slope calculated with the paleoslope estimation method if water depth varies stochastically in time, and thus, caution should be exercised when evaluating regional slopes measured from the rock record in a tectonic context. (2) The role of crustal thickening, lithospheric removal, and climate change in driving surface uplift in the central Andes in southern Bolivia and changes in the creation of accommodation space and depositional facies in the adjacent foreland basin has been a topic of debate over the last decade. Our numerical modeling results show that gradual rise of the Eastern Cordillera above 2-3 km prior to 22 Ma leads to sufficient sediment accommodation for the Oligocene-Miocene foreland basin stratigraphy, and thus, the Eastern Cordillera gained the majority of its modern elevation prior to 10 Ma. Also, we conclude that major changes in grain size and depositional rates are primarily controlled by mountain-belt migration (i.e., climate change and lithospheric removal are secondary mechanisms). (3) Existing equations for predicting the long-term bedload sediment flux in alluvial channels include mean discharge as a controlling variable but do not explicitly include variations in discharge through time. We develop an analytic equation for the long-term bedload sediment flux that incorporates both the mean and coefficient of variation of discharge. Our results show that although increasing aridity leads to an increase in large discharges with respect to small discharges, long-term bedload sediment transport rates decrease for both gravel and sand-bed rivers with increasing aridity.

The business environment in which media companies exist today is rapidly changing. Many media companies are in the process of positioning themselves to this ongoing change and to finding their place in the new media landscape. A process of change creates an opportunity to optimize work processes on different levels. In order to meet these opportunities, as well as being proactive when it comes to environmental performance, we need to understand the current structures of media companies, for example when it comes to work processes. The aim of this study is to identify and analyze the process structures and the potential climate impact of the content production of three different media companies in Sweden: a local newspaper, a monthly magazine and a local television station. The overall research questions of this thesis are: • What are the major editorial processes at media companies and how can the workflows be visualized, in order for us to discover how the processes can be optimized and how this in turn may affect the environmental impact? • How are the results of the process analysis related to a general assessment of the carbon footprint of the content production, in order for us to identify the major reasons for this potential climate change impact and opportunities for change? The research methods used were semi-structured interviews and carbon footprint assessment. The research results suggest that in general terms, newspapers and magazines spend a considerable amount of working time producing content, and content production is the single most important reason for travelling at the three media companies studied. Travel is also done by management to a high degree in all three case studies, mostly to different kinds of business meetings. Planning is another work activity that takes up a considerable amount of time when looking at the total time spent at work. Computers are to a high degree used when planning, but more advanced computer programmes or tools could be recommended to expand the planning possibilities further, thereby saving time and money for the media company.The results of the life cycle assessments indicate that the major reasons for potential climate change impact are travel – both work-related business travel and trips to and from work – electronic equipment, and electricity use. The research results suggest that in order to reduce potential environmental impact from travel, media management should look into technical solutions for meetings at a distance, car-pooling or increasing the use of public transportation. Furthermore, new technical solutions have a potential to lower the costs of the content production processes and streamline work processes in general. With a conscious effort by management, new technology could also be beneficial for the overall environmental impact of the media company. The media companies could for example consider the environmental performance to a higher degree when buying new electronic devices, such as computers. Finally, the media companies could look over their electricity use and make an attempt to reduce their electricity use, as well as making active choices for environmentally friendly alternatives when choosing electricity supplier. / <p>QC 20121128</p>

Food waste is a serious problem in today’s society. Functional food waste is going to waste treatment while people are suffering from food insecurity. Food redistribution in form of a central food bank which collects food waste at food companies and delivers it to social organizations is a measure to deal with this issue. Stockholm City Mission plans to start up a central food bank in Stockholm and it is this implementation that is of focus in this report. The purpose of this study is to compare two scenarios, with and without a food bank, and evaluate this food bank regarding the possibilities for reduced climate impacts and the economic outcomes of the involving actors (food companies, the central food bank and social organizations). The methods used are literature studies, interviews and a material flow analysis to be able to follow the flows of food through the redistribution system. The results found are that costs can be saved for the actors involved and whether the food bank will go with profit depends on the revenues that can be collected from the involved actors and external investors. Climate impacts are reduced as a result of the implementation, mainly in terms of that functional food waste avoids waste treatment and can be of use.

One of the most visible impacts of climate change in Arctic environments is declining sea ice. Due to an absence of spatially coarse quantitative data, there is a lack of understanding on declining sea ice on a community scale. This study seeks to document historical trends in air temperature, sea ice thickness (SIT), break-up dates (BUDs) and freeze-up dates (FUDs), correlate sea ice behaviour to air temperatures, and document the socio-economic impacts of sea ice change in Resolute Bay Nunavut, using traditional Inuit knowledge (TIK) and scientific methods. During the scientific portion of this study linear regression, statistical significance, anomaly analysis, and change point detection were used on time series of sea ice concentration (SIC), SIT, and air temperature. Two SIC datasets were accessed to characterize BUDs and FUDs, Canadian Ice Services archived sea ice charts from 1982-2022 and Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) gridded satellite derived SIC from 1979-2015. The BUD was defined when SIC fell and stayed below 20%, and the FUD was when SIC returned and stayed above 50%. By applying a statistically significant linear regression to both datasets, the BUD was shown to occur 37.5 days earlier and the FUD occurred 23.4 days later in 2022 than in 1979. This study accessed two SIT datasets, Environment and Climate Change Canada fast ice measurements from 1947-2022 and C3S satellite derived sea ice freeboard measurements from 2002-2020 at four locations in the Barrow Strait. After applying change point detection algorithms, this study found annual maximum fast ice thicknesses increased 32.5 cm from 1948-1981 and decreased 33.2 cm from 1981-2021. Fast ice decreased most substantially in the months of April and May. Sea ice freeboard decreased by 260.8 cm on average from 2002-2020 in the Barrow Strait. Freezing degree days (FDDs) were used to correlate sea ice behaviour to air temperature. As FDDs decrease, sea ice freeboard was the most rapidly changing sea ice parameter and fast ice thickness was most strongly correlated to FDDs. Both these results indicate that air temperature has a greater effect on SIT than the BUD and FUD. During the TIK investigation of this study, seventeen community members from Resolute Bay, Nunavut, ranging from age 19-81 were interviewed about their perception of changes in SIT, BUD, FUD, and seasonal weather patterns. Participants were interviewed about the socio-economic impacts of sea ice change, traditional Inuit methods of determining thickness, and asked to indicate typical areas of thin and thick ice, areas that break-up and freeze-up first, and hunting and travel routes on printed maps. The interviewees described a decline in sea ice thickness, areas of thin ice in the Barrow Strait, north of Cornwallis Island, and between Bathurst and Devon Island, less frequent use of the sea ice, less traditional food available in the community, increased vessel traffic, a decrease in seal population, new species and birds in the area, and detailed traditional methods of determining ice thickness through observation of color and use of the harpoon. Agreement between traditional knowledge and the scientific data was present in typical break-up and freeze-up patterns, and annual maximum thickness decreasing over time. While most respondents indicated FUD was later and BUD earlier, more participants responded there have been changes to the FUD than the BUD, whereas the scientific data showed more severe changes to the BUD than FUD. During interviews, there was consensus that summer temperatures are getting warmer but there was variability in responses when asked about winter temperatures. The scientific results showed less warming in the summer (Jun-Aug) than winter months (Jan-Mar) with the most warming in the fall (Sept-Nov). The lack of agreement between these results could be attributed to local perceived changes to winter weather referring to storminess rather than strictly temperature. TIK provided small scale information about the sea ice that the current state of scientific observation can not. In conclusion, a more holistic understanding of sea ice behaviour can be achieved by including Inuit traditional knowledge in partnership with scientific methods.

A statistical downscaling technique is employed to link atmospheric circulation produced by climate models at the large-scale to precipitation recorded at individual weather stations on Vancouver Island. Relationships between the different spatial scales are established with synoptic typing, coupled with non-homogeneous Markov models to simulate precipitation intensity and occurrence in historical and future periods. Types are generated through a clustering algorithm which processes daily precipitation observations recorded by Environment Canada weather stations spanning 1971 to 2000. Large-scale atmospheric circulation data is taken from an ensemble of climate model projections made under the IPCC AR4 SRES A2 scenario through the end of the 21st century. Atmospheric predictors used to influence the Markov model are derived from two versions of the data: Averages of model grid cells selected by correlation maps of circulation and precipitation data; a new approach involving Common Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs) calculated from model output over the Northeast Pacific Ocean. Circulation-based predictors capture the role of sea level pressure (SLP), and winds in influencing coastal precipitation over Vancouver Island. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the projected differences are dependent on the predictors used. Projections for 2081 to 2100 made using common EOFs result in most stations reporting no statistically significant change compared to the baseline period (1971 to 2000) in both seasons. Projections using averaged grid cells find winter season (Nov-Feb) precipitation anomalies produce values that are modestly positive, with typical gains of 6.5% in average precipitation, typical increases of 7.5% rising up to 15% in extreme precipitation, and little spatial dependence. In contrast, average and extreme summer precipitation intensity (Jun-Sep) declines negligibly at most island weather stations with the exception of those on the southern and western sections, which experience reductions of up to 20% relative to the latter thirty years of the twentieth century. Precipitation occurrence decreases slightly in both seasons at all stations with declines in the total days with measurable precipitation ranging from 2% to 8% with reductions also seen in the length of extended periods of precipitation in both seasons.

Over the past decades the world has become increasingly interconnected, and global commodity trade has increased substantially in scope and complexity. Simultaneously, we are rapidly moving towards a future with an increased risk of severe disruption caused by the effects of climate change globally. As trade flows can connect distant regions thousands of miles apart, they can also transmit risks of climate change via impacts on supply chains. This study examines these risk flows through a case study, focusing on exposure to climate change risks to the Swedish consumption of Brazilian soy. Taking in to account both the exposure of climate change to agricultural production in Brazil, and the potential climate vulnerability of the transport network that is used in the agricultural supply, this study brings together data and methods from eight different sources to assess climate risks to production and transport in a novel integrated climate risk assessment. The ability to link consumption data, production data and transport network information together at a municipality resolution constitutes a major innovation and step forward in climate-related supply chain risk assessment. The study find that future risks posed to Swedish sourcing of Brazilian soy are relatively low. Considering dynamic effects of the future market does however suggest that securing future supplies of soy can still be a challenging task for Sweden.

Diese Arbeit entwickelt zunächst einen Ansatz, der die Quantifizierung der Angemessenheit von Lebensbedingungen für Wohlbefinden und Entwicklung (Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD)) auf globaler Ebene ermöglicht. Der Ansatz erlaubt es, sektorale Klimaauswirkungen direkt in Beziehung zu den Voraussetzungen für adäquate Lebensbedingungen zu setzen. Weiterhin befasst sich die Arbeit im Detail mit den Themen Wasserverfügbarkeit und menschlicher Gesundheit und zeigt auf, wie regionale und lokale Untersuchungen die Aussagekraft von allgemeinen, globalen Studien erweitern können. Die Ergebnisse des zeigen, dass Wasser als Element von AHEAD eine besonders aktive Komponente des Systems ist, so dass durch Klimawandel bedingte Veränderungen starke Auswirkungen auf das Gesamtsystem zur Folge haben können. Die Quantifizierung von AHEAD zeigt außerdem, dass Wasserknappheit die Lebensbedingungen bereits heute in vielen Regionen limitiert und Auswirkungen des Klimawandels diese Limitierungen weiter verstärken. Die detaillierte Analyse zum Thema Wasser ermöglicht die Ableitung von geeigneten Ansatzpunkten zur Verbesserung der Bedingungen. In einem ähnlichen Ansatz werden die vielfältigen sozio-ökonomischen und natürlichen Einflussfaktoren, die die Auswirkungen von Hitzestress auf die menschliche Gesundheit beeinflussen integriert, so dass die Ableitung relevanter Informationen zur Reduktion von Klimaauswirkungen auf das menschliche Wohlbefinden möglich wird. Eine Verbindung der vorgestellten Ansätze erlaubt es, Aussagen über die Art, die Intensität sowie die räumliche Ausprägung von aktuellen und zukünftigen Einschränkungen von Lebensbedingungen zu treffen. / This thesis develops an approach to assess Adequate Human livelihood conditions for wEll-being And Development (AHEAD) on a global scale. The approach allows to relate sectoral impacts of climate change to an integrated measure of livelihood limitations, taking into account important determinants of the society as well as the environment. Additionally, detailed sectoral studies on water availability and human health show how local and regional studies of specific livelihood aspects can complement generic, global assessments and provide an overall indication of the nature, severity and spatial distribution of limitations to human livelihoods. The results show, that water as an element of AHEAD is one of the most active system components. Impacts of climate change on water may have strong indirect effects on livelihood adequacy. The potential impacts of changes in water availability on AHEAD are quantified, showing that water scarcity limits livelihood adequacy in many regions of the world. The utilisation of an ensemble of climate change and water models further allows to assess the relevance of model related uncertainty in this regard. As water availability plays a crucial role for the fulfilment of livelihood needs, the global assessment is complemented by a detailed analysis of the adequacy of water availability for relevant sectors. By taking into account sector-specific determinants, the approach allows to depict limitations in detail, also giving indications as to how water adequacy may be improved. Similarly, the analysis of heatwave impacts on human health provides a methodology to assess the multiple environmental and human influences which affect vulnerability and provides specific information on potential adaptation measures to reduce climate impacts. By identifying the most decisive limiting factors, applicable information on how to most effectively improve human livelihoods is generated.

<div>Wetlands are dispersed fractal aquatic habitats that play a key role in watershed eco-hydrology. Wetlands provide critical habitats for specialized fauna and flora, process nutrients, and store water. Wetlands are found in a wide range of landscapes and climates, including humid/tropical regions where surface water is abundant, and in semiarid/arid regions with surface-water deficits. Wetland morphology and hydrology are governed by geomorphology and climate. Wetlands are dynamic; they change in space and time in response to unsteady external conditions, and over longer term to internal process feedbacks. Together, wetlands form a mosaic of heterogeneous, dynamic, aquatic habitats in varying spatial organizations, networked by hydrological and ecological connections. </div><div><br></div><div>The overarching goal of the proposed research is to provide a robust theoretical framework to model the dynamics of multiple wetlands spread across watersheds (wetlandscape). In particular, the three main lens I used for identifying the spatiotemporal variability in wetlandscapes were: hydrology, morphology and ecology. Indeed, the hydrological modeling of wetlands is of key importance to determine which habitats are potentially able to host aquatic and semiaquatic species, as well as function as retention basin for storing considerable amount of water or for processing nutrients. Wetlands interaction with the landscape topography is essential to characterize the morphological attributes of these waterbodies. Different generating mechanisms have produced differences in wetland shapes and extent. However, even if wetlands are different among regions, and also within the same landscape, the set of function that they can support is similar. In the present research, I have also proposed that because water accumulates at low elevations, topography-based models helpful for the identification of wetlands in landscapes. These types of models are useful especially in those cases were wetlands data are sparse or not available. The proposed approaches could reproduce the abundance and distribution of active wetlands found in the NWI database, despite the differences in identification methods. In particular, I found that wetland size distributions in all the conterminous United States share the same Pareto pdf. Furthermore, the wetland shape is constrained into a narrow range of 2D fractal dimension (1.33;1.5). Since this method can be carried out with only a DEM as input, the proposed framework can be applied to any DEM to extract the location and the extent of depressional wetlands.</div><div><br></div><div>Wetlands are among the most biologically diverse ecosystems, serving as habitats to a wide range of unique plants and animal life. In fact, wetlands and their surrounding terrestrial habitats are critical for the conservation and management of aquatic and semi-aquatic species. Understating the degree and dynamics of connectedness among individual wetlands is a challenge that unites the fields of ecology and hydrology. Connectivity among spatially distributed mosaic of wetlands, embedded in uplands, is critical for aquatic habitat integrity and to maintain metapopulation biodiversity. Land-use and climate change, among other factors, contribute to wetland habitat loss and fragmentation of dispersal networks. Here, I present an approach for modeling dynamic spatiotemporal changes, driven by stochastic hydroclimatic forcing, in topology of dispersal networks formed by connecting habitat zones within wetlands. I examined changes in topology of dispersal networks resulting from temporal fluctuations in hydroclimatic forcing, finding that optimal dispersal network are available only for limited time period, thus species need to constantly adapt to cope with adverse conditions. </div><div><br></div><div>Loss of wetlands leads to habitat fragmentation and decrease in landscape connectivity, which in turn hampers the dispersal and survival of wetland-dependent species. Ecosystem functions arise from interdependent processes and feedbacks operating concurrently at multiple scales. In this thesis, I integrated stochastic models for landscape hydrology to study the temporal variability in wetlands attributes (e.g., stage, surface area and storage volume, carrying capacity) with ecological network theory allows for characterization of the spatiotemporal dynamics of habitat distribution and connectivity that is essential to meta-communities. The proposed framework can be applied in diverse landscapes and hydro-climates, and could thus be used at larger scales. The proposed approach could also inform conservation and restoration efforts that target landscape functions linked to transport in wet ecological corridors. The interdisciplinarity that characterizes this work allows for a wide spectrum of potential applications. Despite the ultimate goal of the thesis consists in the eco-hydrologic modeling of wetlandscapes, the backbone of the proposed models could be extended to any kind of patchily habitat driven by stochastic forcing. </div>

O problema das mudanças climáticas globais somente pode ser resolvido através de um longo processo de coordenação política internacional no qual os principais atores são os governos dos Estados Nacionais. O Protocolo de Quioto é o primeiro acordo internacional para controlar as emissões de gases de efeito estufa, e muitas outras rodadas de negociações ocorrerão ao longo deste século gerando novos acordos com o mesmo objetivo. Inúmeros fatores, relacionados de forma complexa, têm influenciado e influenciarão os resultados desses futuros acordos. Dentre os principais estão as incertezas sobre os vários aspectos, físicos, biológicos, econômicos e políticos, do problema das mudanças climáticas. O objetivo deste trabalho foi construir um modelo de análise integrada, que tornasse transparente os principais elementos e elos da cascata de incertezas existente no problema das mudanças climáticas e a sua influência nos resultados daquelas negociações e nos permitisse fazer simulações exploratórias sobre os efeitos da evolução dessas incertezas sobre os resultados da seqüência de negociações após o Protocolo de Quioto. O modelo representa de forma estilizada importantes elementos que participam da estrutura de decisão coletiva sobre abatimento de reduções de emissões e em alguns aspectos é mais realista que vários modelos existentes sobre tomada de decisões sobre mudança de clima. Ele é composto de um módulo que representa o sistema do clima, um módulo que representa as economias nacionais, um módulo que representa os tomadores de decisões governamentais e um módulo que representa as negociações sobre reduções de emissões. Os tomadores de decisões são representados como agentes que têm planos de desenvolvimento econômico para seus países e modelos sobre como o clima global e regional e as suas economias funcionam, o que lhes permite fazerem projeções futuras do aquecimento global, das suas economias e emissões, e do impacto que a mudança de clima produzirá em seu território. Dessa forma podem estimar o impacto que o aquecimento global poderá ter sobre seus planos de desenvolvimento. Essas análises são feitas dentro de um horizonte de antecipação que depende do grau de incertezas na época em que as projeções são realizadas. Representamos algumas das principais incertezas na ciência do clima e análise econômica do problema através de distribuições de probabilidades de certos parâmetros chave, tais como a sensibilidade climática e a difusividade térmica do Oceano, que podem variar ao longo do tempo. Existe uma infinidade de cenários possíveis de evolução dessas incertezas, mas somente alguns com significados intuitivos importantes. Uma negociação sobre cotas de reduções de emissões é representada como um jogo não-cooperativo, e o acordo entre os países é um equilíbrio de Nash desse jogo. Cada governo, antes de ir à mesa de negociações, baseado nestas projeções e nas possíveis ações dos outros governos, elabora suas estratégias sobre o quanto abater de suas emissões. O resultado final de um jogo é influenciado pelas distribuições de probabilidades que representam as incertezas da época em que cada agente faz suas projeções. Algumas distribuições em algumas épocas podem revelar aos agentes a probabilidade de impactos climáticos perigosos em suas economias, influenciando fortemente as suas escolhas de abatimento e o resultados das negociações. Esse ciclo de projeções-análise-negociação se repete várias vezes ao longo do tempo definindo uma seqüência de acordos de reduções de emissões, um conseqüente aquecimento global e uma distribuição de impactos regionais ao longo do mesmo período. A comparação das trajetórias finais de aquecimento e impactos gerados para cada cenário escolhido de evolução das incertezas ajuda-nos a compreender as possíveis evoluções das futuras negociações sobre abatimento de emissões. Implementamos uma versão simplificada do modelo em um programa de computador através da plataforma Microsoft Excel, considerando somente dois blocos de países. Com esse protótipo, é possível simular cenários de evolução das incertezas, representando evoluções possíveis da ciência do clima e a análise econômica do problema, e com isso estudar a influência dessas evoluções nos resultados de uma seqüência de negociações sobre cotas de reduções de emissões entre dois blocos de países, que uma vez definidos os valores de certos parâmetros, podem representar os países do Anexo I e Não-Anexo I da Convenção Quadro de Mudança de Clima das Nações Unidas. Nesse caso o Protocolo de Quioto é o primeiro acordo de uma série de acordos ao longo do Século XXI. O modelo foi construído apoiando-se na literatura tradicional de modelagem integrada em mudanças climáticas, mas inova a pesquisa nesta área em vários pontos importantes. Dentre eles está a variação gradual de várias incertezas e a incorporação de uma interpretação do conceito de impactos climáticos perigosos conforme o Artigo 2 da Convenção Quadro e seu papel nos resultados das negociações. A linguagem e a plataforma utilizada nos permite comunicar de forma clara os elos da cascata de incertezas e sua influência sobre as negociações, tanto a cientistas, quanto a analistas econômicos e políticos envolvidos com o tema. A plataforma utilizada torna também o programa aberto para análises críticas e modificações a uma larga classe de analistas do tema, além de poder ser utilizado no ensino, que ainda carece de ferramentas pedagógicas que permitam uma ampla divulgação desse tema a não especialistas. Apesar de ser um modelo sobre mudanças climáticas, os vários módulos têm uma estrutura conceitual que lhes permite serem adaptados para tratar outras questões ambientais globais e regionais onde as soluções baseiam-se em tomada de decisão coletiva negociada e sob incertezas. / The problem of the global climate change only can to be solved through a long term process of international political coordination which the principal actors are the governments of the National States. The Kyoto Protocol is the first international agreement to control the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the others rounds of negotiations will happen through this century producing new deals with the same goal. A number of factors related of a complex way, have influenced and will influence the results of these future agreements. Among the principal factors, are the uncertainties about the physical, biological, ecological, economical and poltical aspects of the global climate change problem. The goal of this work was to contruct a integrated assessment model, that show in a transparent way some the majors elements and links of the uncertainties cascade that exist in the problem of the climate change, and their influence on the results on that negotiations. The model permit us to make exploratory simulations about the effects of the evolution that uncertainties in the results of the sequence of negotiations after the Kyoto Protocol. The model represent in a stylized way important elements that participate in the structure of collective decision making about abatement of GHG emissions and in some aspects is more realistic that several existent models on decision making about climate change. It is composed of one module that represent the climate system, one module that represent the national economies, one module that represent the governmental decision makers and one module that represent the negotiations about reductions of GHG emissions. The climate model include a carbon cycle and an energetic balance simple models with white noise in the radiative forcing to repesent the natural climate variability. The economic models include abrupt changes in the damages functions. The The decision makers are represented as agents that have economical development plans for their countries and have models of the climate change and their national economies. These models permit to each one make projections on future global warming, economical growth, emissions and the climate impacts on each territory. Thus each agent can estimate the impact of the global warming on his development plan under a action of abatement of emissions. These analysis are made with the aid of a antecipation horizon that depends of the uncertainty levels in the epoch which the projections are made. We represented some of majors uncertainties in the climate science and economic analysis on the problem through probabilities distributions of certain key parameters, such that the climate sensibility and the ocean thermal diffusivity, which can to vary in time. There is a number of possible evolution scenarios for these uncertainties, but only a few with important intuitive means. We take only these more important scenarios to simulation. A negotiation on reduction quotas of emissions is represented as a non-cooperative game and the agreement between countries is a Nash equilibrium of the game. Each government before to negotiate choose his strategies on how much abate emissions based on his projections. The game final result is influenced by the probabilities distributions that represent the uncertainties in the epoch of the negotiations. Some distributions can reveal high probabilities for dangerous climate impacts in their economies, influencing strongly the choices of emission abatements and the results of negotiations. The cycle of projection-analysisnegotiation can to repeat many times defining a sequence of agreements and then a emission trajectory, and as consequence a global warming and distributions of regional impacts. The comparison of final trajectories of warming and impacts for each negotiations sequence help us to understand the possible evolutions of future negotiations and his role in the climate change problem.

This thesis research investigates and contributes to increased knowledge on municipalities’ approaches to climate adaptation and associated challenges that slow down or hinder climate adaptation approaches in cities. The Stockholm region has experienced climate change and impacts of severe floods, heat waves, storms, sea level rise, forest-fire outbreaks, erosion and landslides. To control the frequency and magnitude of these impacts, local authorities and administrations need to integrate mitigation and adaptation management strategies into physical plans of towns and cities. Surveys carried out in 2016 and 2017 consecutively, evaluate municipalities’ efforts in climate adaptation in different counties in Sweden. The survey report in 2017 reveals that not all municipalities are equally implementing climate adaptation in Stockholm county; and yet the impacts of climate change are to affect all municipalities regardless of size and geographical location. Therefore, to understand the state of climate change adaptation in the municipalities, the author interviewed municipal planners, engineers, environmental investigators, and climate group in Botkyrka, to collect qualitative data for analysis. Data was also gathered through qualitative document analysis to compare drivers of municipality approaches to climate adaptation in Botkyrka and Ekerö municipality. The study results show that there is a gap between Botkyrka and Ekerö municipalities’ climate adaptation work. However, much as these two municipalities are sustainably eveloping, they face a number of challenges that hamper their ability to integrate climate adaptation measure in urban physical plans in order to reduce urban vulnerabilities, and thus build sustainable and climate-resilient cities. / Denna uppsatsforskning undersöker och bidrar till ökad kunskap om kommunernas strategier för klimatanpassning och associerade utmaningar som bromsar eller hindrar klimatanpassningsmetoder i städer. Stockholmsregionen har upplevt klimatförändringar och konsekvenser av allvarliga översvämningar, värmeböljor, stormar, havsnivåer, skogsbränder utbrott, erosion och jordskred. För att styra frekvensen och omfattningen av dessa effekter, behöver kommuner och förvaltningar integrera klimatanpassnings strategier för hantering av begränsnings- och anpassningsåtgärder i fysiska planer av städer. Undersökningar som genomförts under 2016 och 2017 efter varandra, utvärdera kommunernas insatser i klimatanpassning i olika län i Sverige. Undersökningsrapporten i 2017 avslöjar att inte alla kommuner genomför lika klimatanpassning i Stockholms län; och ändå effekterna av klimatförändringarna påverkar alla kommuner oberoende av storlek och geografiska läge. För att förstå tillståndet för klimatanpassning i kommunerna, intervjuade jag kommunala planerare, ingenjörer, miljömässiga utredare och klimat gruppen i Botkyrka kommun, med syftet att samla in kvalitativa data för analys. Jag samlade också data genom kvalitativ dokumentanalys för att jämföra faktorer som driver kommunernas klimatanpassningsarbete. Resultaten från studien visar att det finns en lucka mellan Botkyrka och Ekerö kommunernas klimatanpassnings arbete. Dock, även om dessa två kommuner utvecklar hållbart, står de inför ett antal utmaningar som hämmar deras förmåga att integrera klimatanpassningsåtgärder i urbana fysiska planer för att minska urbana sårbarheter, och därmed bygga hållbara och klimattåliga städer.