Magistro baigiamajame darbe atliktas finansinių krizių prognozavimo galimybių tyrimas. Pirmojoje darbo dalyje yra vertinama ir analizuojama finansinės krizės samprata, apibrėžiamas finansinės krizės gyvavimo ciklas ir nustatomi finansinės krizės pradžią identifikuojantys rodikliai. Antroje darbo dalyje yra vertinama finansinių krizių prognozavimo metodologija, kuri yra naudojama kitų autorių tyrimuose. Antroje dalyje taip pat vertinamas pasirinktų finansinių krizių pradžios momentą apibrėžiančių kintamųjų tinkamumas, pasirenkami nepriklausomieji kintamieji bei apibrėžiama tyrimo metodologija. Trečioji darbo dalis yra skirta pagrindiniam tyrimui, kurio metu tiesinės regresijos metodu yra tikrinama galimybė prognozuoti finansines krizės pradžią pasitelkus pasirinktus nepriklausomus kintamuosius. Atlikus tyrimą pateikiamos išvados ir rekomendacijos tolimesniems moksliniams tyrimams bei valdžios institucijoms, atsakingoms už finansų sistemų priežiūrą. / The main task of the Master‘s degree final work is to implement the research of financial crises’ prediction possibility. Financial crisis, financial crisis cycle and the initial stage of financial crisis are identified in the first part of the work. The second part of the work consists of the analysis of financial crises’ prediction methodologies, which were implemented by other scientists, evaluation of selected dependent variables for the identification of financial crises starting point, selection of independent variables for the prediction of financial crises and the methodology of the main research. The results of the main research and calculations of correlations and linear regressions are presented in the third part of the work. The research ends with conclusions and recommendations for government institutions and further studies of financial crises’ predictability.

This thesis examines the historical problem of determining the relationship between a government's perception of public opinion and the decisions it takes. We introduce evidence for the social habits of the Cabinet in order to suggest new formulations of 'élite' and 'mass' public opinion. We argue that parliamentary opinion was generally more important in decision-making for the Cabinet, except at moments of extreme crisis when a conception of 'mass' opinion became equally significant. These characterization of mass opinion were drawn from a set of stereotypes about public opinion which academic and political theorization had produced. It is argued that this theorization was stimulated by ongoing debates about mass communication, the importance of the ordinary man in democracy and the outbreak of the first world war during the inter-war period. The thesis begins with an introduction to the methodological problems involved, followed by one chapter on theorization about public opinion in the inter-war period. Three diplomatic crises are considered in the case study chapters: the withdrawal of Germany from the Disarmament Conference in 1933, the German reoccuption of the Rhineland in 1936 and the threat of invasion of the Sudetenland in 1938. Two further chapters examine the role of public opinion in protests to Germany about the treatment of the Jews in 1933 and in 1938. It is argued that perceptions of public opinion played a much more important role in decision-making than has hiterto been thought. The most significant argument posits that perceptions of public opinion were equally as important as military considerations in the decision to refuse the Godesberg terms in 1938. More generally, the way in which politicians used public opinion rhetorically is described and the limits of the usefulness of the term for historians are suggested.

Syfte: Att skapa förståelse för hur situationen på en marknad kan påverka den finansiella stabiliteten. Med det som grund göra en samlad bedömning om vilka risker som finns på Sveriges bostadsmarknad för att utvärdera hur och om de kan påverka finansiell stabilitet idag. Metod: För att ge oss en ökad förståelse om hur finansiell instabilitet uppstår på en marknad har vi tagit hjälp av Hyman P. Minskys teoretiska modell “The Financial Instability Hypothesis”. Teorin har vi sedan applicerat på utvalda finansiella kriser för att studera vad som karaktäriserat dem i sin utformning. Vår forskning har bedrivits med kvalitativa intervjuer med olika organisationer som arbetar aktivt för att upprätthålla och se över den finansiella stabiliteten i Sverige. Slutsats: Vi har identifierat externa och interna faktorer som kan påverka finansiell stabilitet. Oro inom det europeiska bankväsendet utgör största hotet mot finansiell stabilitet idag. Problem kopplade till Sveriges bostadsmarknad utgör inget direkt hot mot finansiell stabilitet, dock visar marknaden tendenser på ineffektivitet. Lågt bostadsbyggande och allmänt lågt utbud matchar inte efterfrågan, detta driver upp priser men även skulder. Priser och skulder kan till stor del förklaras med logiskt ekonomiskt resonemang. / Purpose: To create an understanding of how the situation in a market may affect financial stability. With that as a foundation make an overall assessment of the risks that exist on the Swedish housing market to assess whether and how they can affect financial stability today. Method: In order to obtain increased understanding of how financial instability arises in a market we have used Hyman P. Minskys theoretical model “The Financial Instability Hypothesis”. We have then applied the theory on chosen financial crises in order to study what characterizes them. Our study has been conducted with the help of qualitative interviews with various organizations such as banks and authorities that work to maintain and inspect the financial stability in Sweden. Conclusion: We have identified external and internal factors that could affect financial stability. Concern related to the European banking sector form the greatest threat to financial stability today. Problems related to the Swedish Real Estate Market constitute no direct threat to financial stability, however market trends shows inefficiency. Low housing and low supply in general do not match demand, this drives up prices, but also debts. Prices and debts can largerly be explained by logical economic reasoning.

The four essays included in this dissertation are in the field of open economy Macroeconomics. Essays I, II and IV deal with a work-horse model in this field – a two-sector small open economy growth model with traded and nontraded goods. Writing down such a model requires an assumption about the role of traded and nontraded goods in domestic consumption and investments. While several empirical studies have looked at the consumption side, a systematic examination of the role of traded and nontraded goods in investments is missing. Essay I aims to fill this gap. Drawing on extensive empirical evidence, we show that aggregate investment expenditure shares on traded and nontraded goods are very similar in rich and poor countries. Furthermore, the two expenditure shares have remained close to constant over time, with the average nontraded expenditure share varying between 0.54-0.60 over the 1960-2002 period. Combined with the fact that the relative price of nontraded goods correlates positively with income and exhibits large differences across space and time, our findings suggest that investment can be modeled using the Cobb-Douglas aggregator. The results of this essay offer a new restriction for the two-sector growth model, which can alter the conclusions drawn from the model. To demonstrate this, we apply the new restriction to a study by Hsieh and Klenow (2003), which argues that differences in relative productivity between traded and nontraded sectors, i.e., the Balassa-Samuelson effect, is the main cause of higher PPP-adjusted investment rates in rich countries. With the restriction imposed on the model, no more than 25 percent of the differences in PPP-adjusted investment rates between rich and poor counties can be attributed to the Balassa-Samuelson effect. In Essays II and IV the same two-sector growth model is put to the test using the recent economic developments in countries of Eastern and Central Europe. Essay II investigates whether the two-sector growth model can explain the magnitudes and the timing of the trade flows in the Baltic countries. The model is calibrated for each of the three countries, which we simulate as small closed economies that suddenly open up to international trade and capital flows. The results show that the model can account for the observed magnitudes of the trade deficits in the 1995-2001 period. Introducing a real interest rate risk premium in the model increases its explanatory power. According to the model, trade balances will turn positive in the Baltic states around 2010. Essay IV starts by summarizing empirical regularities for the key aggregate real sector variables in the eight countries that joined the EU in May 2004. It is shown that, following the reforms in the early 1990s, real sector developments in all eight countries exhibit remarkable similarities. Interestingly, this is the case despite the fact that different reform policies were pursued in several dimensions (e.g., privatization, nominal exchange rate). Next, we show that a calibrated two-sector small open economy growth model can account for most of the real sector adjustments in early post-reform years. Empirical studies have found rapid traded sector productivity growth in Central and Eastern European countries over the last decade. When traded sector productivity growth is added to the model, it captures the development in all key real sector variables during the post-reform period. Finally, Essay III contributes to the study of financial crises in emerging markets. In contrast to the other essays, this paper develops a highly stylized theoretical model that allows us to study analytically government response to financial crises. In particular, Essay III develops a framework for analyzing optimal government bailout policy in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model where financial crises are exogenous. Important elements of the model are that private borrowers internalize only part of the social cost of foreign borrowing in the emerging market and that the private sector is illiquid in the event of a crisis. The distinguishing feature of our paper is that it addresses the optimal bailout policy in an environment where there are both costs and benefits of bailouts, and where bailout guarantees potentially distort investment decisions in the private sector. We show that it is always optimal to commit to a bailout policy that only partially protects investment against inefficient liquidation, both in a centralized economy and a market economy. Due to overinvestment in the market economy, the government's optimal level of bailout guarantees is lower than in the social optimum. Further, we show that, in contrast to a social planner, the government in the market economy should optimally bail out a smaller fraction of private investments when the probability of a crisis is higher. / Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2005 S. i-x: sammanfattning, s. 1-187: 4 uppsatser

This thesis sheds light on several macroeconomic aspects of international and domestic goods trade during the last three decades. The first chapter investigates the causes of the growth of world trade during this period and shows that it is best understood from a factor-proportions perspective. The second chapter analyses the decline in trade experienced by countries in the wake of sovereign debt crises. Empirical evidence suggests that it is due to a reduction in exporters’ access to foreign credit. The third and final chapter provides an explanation for the procyclicality of input trade among domestic firms. I argue that periods of economic expansion affect vertically integrated producers asymmetrically, providing incentives for intermediate-goods trade between fast-growing and slow-growing firms. / Aquesta tesis posa en relleu varis aspectes macroeconòmics del comerç internacional i domèstic en les últimes tres dècades. El primer capítol investiga les causes del creixement del comerç mundial en aquest període i demostra que s’entén millor des de la perspectiva dels proporcions dels factors. El segon capítol analitza la caiguda del comerç experimentada per països arran de crisis del deute sobirà. L’evidencia empírica suggereix que aquest declivi es deu a la reducció en l’accés dels exportadors al crèdit extern. El tercer i últim capítol ofereix una explicació per la prociclicitat del comerç d’inputs entre empreses domèstiques. En períodes d’expansió econòmica els productors integrats verticalment es veuen afectats d’una forma asimètrica, proporcionant així incentius pel comerç de bens intermedis entre empreses que creixen a diferent ritme.

Thesis (doctoral)--Universität, Münster (Westfalen), 2005.

No description available.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:33:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 BOTTREL_Mariana_2014.pdf: 2435524 bytes, checksum: 7cc3845ff767003b15f1d3e00d7dbf1a (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-04-28 / Financiadora de Estudos e Projetos / It is essential that the financial intermediaries operate well in order to offer financial products to attend the society s needs efficiently, providing economic growth. Besides, a healthy banking system is extremely important for the solidity of the financial system of a country and the social welfare. Therefore, it is necessary to study the market structure, with their concentration rates and the possibility to exercise market power of the firms. Also, it is possible to relate the impacts of this market structure to the risks taken by the banks. In order to measure the concentration, it has been used the following techniques: (i) Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI); (ii) Concentration Rates ( CR). To watch the possibility of market power exercising and rivalry, two methods were used: (i) unit root tests; and (ii) unit root tests with panel data. The results show that there has been a large increase in concentration, especially during the beginning of the global financial crisis in 2008. Moreover, it shows that there is possibility of effective rivalry. For the relationship between structure and risk, it has been used a model with panel data, according to Araújo e Jorge Neto (2007). The result was that the relationship between risk and concentration is positive. On conclusion, effective rivalry in the markets studied is possible, which reduces the possibility of the exercise of market power due to an increase in concentration. The concentration may also not have contributed to reduce the risks taken by banks. Keywords: Economic Measures. Econometrics. Commercial Bank. Financial Crisis. / O bom funcionamento dos intermediários financeiros é essencial para oferta de produtos financeiros que atendam às necessidades da sociedade com eficiência, propiciando o crescimento econômico. Além disso, um sistema bancário hígido é extremamente importante para a solidez do sistema financeiro de um país e para o bem-estar social. Por isso, é preciso estudar a estrutura de mercado, com seus níveis de concentração e com a possibilidade de exercício de poder de mercado das firmas. Pode-se, ainda, relacionar quais os impactos dessa estrutura no risco tomados pelos bancos. Para a mensuração da concentração foram usadas as medidas de concentração: (i) Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI); e (ii) Concentration Rates ( ). Para a observação da possibilidade de exercício de poder de mercado, rivalidade, foram usados dois métodos: (i) testes de raiz unitária; e (ii) testes de raiz unitária em painel. Os resultados obtidos mostram que houve um grande aumento da concentração, principalmente no período de estopim da crise financeira mundial, em 2008. Ademais, mostram que há possibilidade de rivalidade efetiva. Para a relação entre estrutura e risco foi usado um modelo com dados em painel, com base no trabalho de Araújo e Jorge Neto (2007). O resultado obtido foi que a relação entre risco e concentração é positiva. Conclui-se que existe possível rivalidade efetiva nos mercados estudados, o que reduz a possibilidade do exercício de poder de mercado devido a um aumento da concentração. A concentração também pode não ter contribuído para reduzir os riscos tomados pelos bancos.

Cette thèse se compose de trois chapitres distincts. Le premier chapitre étudie la tentative d'harmonisation de la réglementation financière et de la divulgation de l'information financière par l'Union Européenne. Ces réglementations financières sont appliquées à travers un ensemble de directives avec un objectif commun. Nous étudions l'impact de ces changements sur l'asymétrie d'information. Nous considérons également le rôle des caractéristiques du pays et des entreprises. Nos résultats montrent que l'asymétrie d'information a diminué après le changement de régime réglementaire de l'UE. Nous démontrons que les pays dont la règlementation antérieure est d'un niveau de qualité élevé avec un système juridique efficient ont connu une réduction d'asymétrie d'information plus importante. Selon les résultats, l'impact des réglementations sur l'asymétrie d'information est plus important pour les entreprises qui avaient un meilleur environnement avant le changement de régime. Le deuxième chapitre étudie l'efficacité de l'utilisation de la juste valeur en comptabilité pour fournir des informations plus pertinentes sur la valeur des banques. Les études pertinence de la valeur ont été menées en quatre étapes. Tout d'abord, nous comparons la pertinence de la valeur des actifs et passifs tels qu'ils sont inscrits dans les bilans. Nous constatons que les actifs et passifs pris à la juste valeur sont plus pertinents pour expliquer la valeur de marché des capitaux propres. En outre, on observe que la crise financière de mi-2008 n'a pas d'impact significatif sur la pertinence des actifs et des passifs pris en FV et, que la qualité de l'audit améliore la pertinence des actifs pris en FV. Dans la deuxième étape, nous nous concentrons sur la mesure de la juste valeur et nous trouvons que les actifs basés sur « marked-to-market » sont plus pertinents que les actifs « marked-to-model » et que la haute qualité de l'audit a un impact positif sur la pertinence des actifs basés sur les niveaux de FV 1 et 2. Dans la troisième étape, nous examinons la pertinence de la valeur incrémentale des justes valeurs, en étudiant la pertinence du contenu de l'information fournie par la différence entre les justes valeurs et les coûts historiques. Pour terminer, nous évaluerons la pertinence des deux modèles que nous proposons en comparant les résultats obtenus au titre de celui de « la juste valeur totale » à ceux obtenus par le modèle « du coût historique ». Dans le troisième chapitre, nous cherchons à savoir dans quelle mesure la juste valeur en comptabilité permet de mesurer l'exposition aux risques prise par les banques. Nous étudions le rôle de la taille des banques et celui de la situation économique du marché financier. Nous démontrons que pour un échantillon global, les ratios d'endettement de coût historique et la GAAP, sont plus liés au risque de la banque que les ratios fondées sur les justes valeurs. Pour les petites banques le ratio de levier financier de la GAAP et du HC expliquent mieux le risque de défaut des banques que le ratio de levier financier de FV, et pour les grandes banques cet ordre s'inverse. Nos résultats fournissent la preuve que, pendant les périodes stables, le ou la GAAP et le ou la HC sont plus pertinentes que le risque par FV. En période de crise cet ordre s'inverse, et les ratios de FV expliquent mieux les attentes du marché concernant le risque de défaut de toutes les banques. / This dissertation consist three distinct essays that study the effectiveness of financial disclosure regulations. The first essay studies the effectiveness of EU regulatory changes aimed to harmonize and enhance EU financial information environment. Unlike literatures that study the adoption of a single regulation, we consider a set of EU regulations that have common objectives. We find that the adoption of these regulation have decreased information asymmetry in financial markets. We also show that the effectiveness of regulatory changes varies across counties. We find that firms that needed the improvement in financial information environment the most benefited the least from implementation of regulations under study. We argue that EU capital market impacts generally attributed to the adoption of IFRS are likely to come from regulatory changes concomitant to IFRS. We then focus on banks and find that EU regulatory changes had a more significant impact on banks than other firms. The second essay studies the effectiveness of fair value accounting in providing more value-relevant information. The value relevance studies have been conducted in four stages. First, we compare the value relevance of assets and liabilities as they are carried in balance sheets and find that assets and liabilities carried at fair value are more value-relevant than those carried at cost. Furthermore, we illustrate that the 2008 financial crisis had no significant impact on the value relevance of FV assets and liabilities. Also high audit quality improves the value relevance of assets carried at FV. Second, we focus on fair value measurement levels and find marked-to-marked fair values to be more value-relevant than marked-to-model fair value assets and high audit quality has a positive impact on value relevance of assets carries at FV levels 1 and 2. Third, we focus on the incremental value relevance of fair values, where we study the value relevance of fair value information over those conveyed by costs data. Finally, we compare the relative value relevance of a full fair value versus full cost accounting. The third essay looks at the risk relevance of fair value accounting. We compare the accounting-based debt ratio with fair values, cost and US GAAP data for explaining market assessments of bank risk. We find that although in overall US GAAP information and cost accounting are more risk relevant than fair values, relative value-relevance of the ratios depends on bank size and general economic condition. During financial crisis and for large banks fair values are more risk-relevant than HC and GAAP. Overall, this dissertation sheds light on the effectiveness of financial regulations regarding information disclosure and the impact of influential factors with an emphasis on banks.

Nous abordons dans cette thèse le problème de la conception d’un système informatique de soutien évaluatif, pour soutenir et évaluer en temps réel l’activité collaborative dans le cas particulier "d'une activité régie par des process issus d'organisations différentes". Nous définissons un process comme un ensemble de règles, de politiques, de plans, de normes ayant pour vocation de guider et de servir de référence à la réalisation d’une activité collaborative. Nous positionnons notre recherche dans le cadre applicatif de l’entrainement à la gestion de crise, et dans le cadre technologique de l’interaction tangible.Pour mettre en place un soutien évaluatif flexible et intelligible, nous proposons un système socio-technique capable d’apporter aux acteurs une conscience organisationnelle partagée et distribuée.Dans ce cadre, trois verrous essentiels sont considérés : (1) représentation et gestion de contextes liés à l’activité soutenue et aux interactions entre acteurs, (2) représentation et gestion des différents process liés à l’activité soutenue et à l’interaction, et (3) articulation entre l'activité soutenue et l'interaction.Pour répondre à ces verrous, nous proposons le système OrA s’appuyant sur trois groupes de principes relatif à l'activité soutenue et à l’interaction : modularité et représentation des process et contextes, gestion autonome et faiblement couplée des process et des éléments de contexte, coordination flexible entre ces mécanismes de gestion de process et de contextes.Ces principes sont mis en oeuvre au sein d’un système informatique s’appuyant sur les modèles des collecticiels, et en particulier CLOVER, des modèles de traces, des systèmes multi-agents normatifs.Ce système est évalué en démontrant la possibilité de modéliser les process d’un cas pratique d’exercice de gestion de crise, puis en proposant une utilisation en situation d’un exercice réel d’entrainement à la gestion de crise. / We discuss in this thesis about designing an computer system for an evaluative support , to support and evaluate in real-time the collaborative activity in the particular case of "an activity governed by processes from different organizations". We define a process as a set of rules, policies, plans, standards which aim to guide and be a reference for the realization of a collaborative activity. Our research is applied to training in crisis management, and situated in the technological context of tangible interaction.To implement a flexible and comprehensible evaluative support, we propose a socio-technical systemfor bringing the actors shared and distributed organizational consciousness.In this context, three key issues are considered: (1) representation and management of the contexts associated with the sustained activity and the interactions between the involved stakeholders, (2) representation and management of various processes associated with the sustained activity and the interaction and (3) the articulation between the sustained activity and the interaction.To answer these issues, we offer the OrA system based on three groups of principles, both about sutained activiy and interaction : modularity and representation of processes and contexts, autonomous management and loosely coupled processes and contextual elements, flexible coordination between these process and context management mechanisms.These principles are implemented in a computer system based on the model of groupware, especially CLOVER, a traces models, and normative multi-agent systems.This system is evaluated by demonstrating the ability to model the process of a practical case of crisis management exercise, and by providing a use situation of a real exercise training in crisis management.