This study forthbrings a definition of economic vulnerability and indirectly measures how this definition correlates towards choice of party in the Swedish elections of 2010, 2014 and 2018. It does so by the help of regression analysis. The result is that there seems to be a connection between economic vulnerability and some of the parties. A partern in the material is that the parties Kristdemokraterna, Liberalerna, Miljöpartiet and Moderaterna has a negative correlation with economic vulnerability in all the examined elections. Socialdemokraterna has a positive correlation with economic vulnerability in all the examined elections. Sverigedemokraterna has a positive correlation in two of the examined elections. Centerpartiet and Vänsterpartiet only has statisticly significant results in one of the examined elections. Centerpartiet has a negative correlation and Vänsterpartiet has a positive correlation in that election. I try to explain these findings with Rational choice theory.Nyckelord: / Studien tar fram en definition utav ekonomisk utsatthet och mäter indirekt hur denna korrelerar gentemot partival i de svenska riksdagsvalen 2010,2014 och 2018. Till detta så användes regressionsanalys. Resultatet är att det verkar finnas ett samband emellan ekonomisk utsatthet och vissa partier. Ett mönster som uppträder är att partierna Kristdemokraterna, Liberalerna, Miljöpartiet och Moderaterna har en negativ korrelation i alla val som undersöks medans Socialdemokraterna har en positiv korrelation i alla val. Sverigedemokraterna har en positiv korrelation i två av de undersökta valen. Centerpartiet och Vänsterpartiet har endast statistiskt signifikant resultat i ett av valen. Centerpartiet har då ett negativt samband och Vänsterpartiet ett positivt samband. Jag försöker därefter förklara detta med hjälp utav ’rational choice’-teori.Abstract

Among scholars in the field of state and local politics, the value of using the state and local levels of analysis cannot be overemphasized. Examining political trends at these levels often provides us with far more information about the United States than only looking at the national level. This is true particularly for subjects like elections, parties, and realignment. The research reported here adds to a body of literature that focuses on the state level when examining elections and party realignment. In this thesis I focus on the dynamics of elections in West Virginia. The main focus of this research is to see to what to extent West Virginia has experienced a realignment of its political party system. Due to regional differences within the state I anticipate that more change will occur farther north and east. The data used here to explore these differences are at the county and state legislative district levels and were gathered from the Secretary of State's office in West Virginia (on-line) and from the 1980 and 1990 U.S. census. Such measures as turnout, registration and election results at the federal and state levels will be used to indicate changes in partisan competition. / Master of Arts

The Swedish Moderate Party had for a long time varied widely in election results. This essay emerges that the theory of dealignment and realignment explains the variation. Dealignment meaning that contemporary voters in western democracies don’t establish relations with political parties in a wide form as traditional. This essay show that the traditional ways of political identity and later voting acts are not important in the same way as before. The Moderate party has in the public eye been a party that people tend to have strong feelings about. The established explanation, the right left scale and class, were found to be less likely to explain why people like or don ́t like the Moderate Party. It is part of a major social change that has been established in most Western democracies. Essentially, this is about new post material value based parties. This study shows that it also affects a large established party like the Moderate Party and a part of a realignment in Swedish politics where new patterns are established. Also that it is an ongoing development were social background and political scale of the traditional values are becoming more and more ineffective in the cause of contemporary voters' behavior.

This thesis examines the influence of religion on party realignment in the United States focusing on Catholic voting behavior. A statistical analysis utilizing bivariate analysis and logistical regressions examines if religion and party realignment is an ecumenical trend expanding beyond Evangelicals to Catholics. It measures scientifically the party trends of the Catholic voter. With data pooled from the National Election Studies from 1960 to 2004, it tests the hypothesis that church attending Catholics are realigning over time into the Republican Party both in vote choice and party identification, because of their pro-life position on abortion. The analysis shows that church attending Catholics have dealigned from the Democratic Party over time because of their pro-life position on abortion. The thesis is a model for examining the religion and party realignment question for other traditional Democratic religious denominations such as African-American Evangelicals and Jews.

For the past several decades the South has moved toward one-party Republican control, and yet the mega-southern state of Florida has not kept pace with the greater Southern Republican realignment for candidates running for statewide office. Instead, Florida has exhibited a Southern lag, where rural counties maintain higher Democratic registration than voting levels in supporting Democratic candidates for governor and U.S. Senate in the same general election year. There has been a gradual regional dealignment occurring in rural counties that are closer to the Deep Southern states of Alabama and Georgia. Using a range of aggregate Florida county election and registration data, research found the percentage of white voters and percentage of registered Democrats that comprise counties effect the Democratic deviation. These results have implications for campaign strategy and can be used in campaign targeting efforts.

一九九八年台北市市長選舉中，影響選舉結果最大的是外省籍選民及新黨選民「分裂投票」現象。大量新黨選民在市長選舉中一面倒地投票給國民黨候選人馬英九，不過市議員、立法委員仍舊投給新黨則是導致這種現象出現的主因。常態下，擁有高滿意度的在位者，常能連任。而在任內施政滿意度常常保持在七成以上的市長陳水扁落選，是相當令人意外的。筆者認為這種現象值得作有系統的分析。 本文利用政治大學選舉研究中心的抽樣調查面訪資料，針對一九九八年台北市選舉中選民分裂投票的行為進行深入分析。本文歸納影響選民分裂投票的六個模型，利用六個模型經過對數成敗比模型的比較，在控制人口基本背景因素之後（性別、年齡、教育程度及籍貫），發現模型影響選民分裂投票的情況：一是政黨認同強度減弱的政黨解組作用導致選民分裂投票。雖然政黨認同在模型中具有明顯的影響力，但台北市近年來並未有政黨解組的趨勢，因此政黨認同減弱並非分裂投票的主因。二為選民的省籍，尤其是外省籍選民分裂投票行為相當明顯，其中年輕世代比年紀大的世代更形嚴重。第三則是統獨議題及相關的中國人/台灣人認同。研究結果發現統獨議題對選民分裂投票不具顯著影響力，但中國人/台灣人則對於市長與立法委員之間的分裂投票有明顯影響力；第四是候選人形象中的裙帶效應並不顯著，對分裂投票與否之間不具明顯差異。五為選民分立制衡觀念。在相同層級的市府及議會之間選民具有分立制衡的觀念，想藉政黨之間相互制衡的方式保護民眾的最大福祉，故採取分裂投票的行為。中央及地方制衡的觀念則不具影響力。第六則為新黨的選民策略投票是影響選民分裂投票的重要因素。新黨選民對於尋求連任的民進黨市長候選人陳水扁相當反感，且新黨市長候選人王建□當選機會不大的情況下，選擇轉投給國民黨馬英九之策略投票，並進而形成分裂投票。從六個模型最後推論的結果，真正決定選民分裂與否最重要的因素是選民的省籍背景導致的情感反應及新黨選民的策略投票。而這兩者的關聯又非常密切。 / Split ticket voting by New Party identifiers and Mainlanders had a crucial influence on the outcome of the 1998 Taipei City mayoral election. Large numbers of voters who identified themselves as New Party supporters voted for the KMT mayoral candidate. However, in the concurrent Legislative Yuan and City Council elections, they voted for New Party candidates. Normally, an incumbent with extremely high approval ratings will win re-election easily, but in this case Chen Shui-bian lost the mayoral race. This surprising result is worth researching. This thesis uses face-to-face interview data collected after the 1998 election. To analyze split ticket voting behavior, we consider six different logit models. After controlling basic demographic variables, including sex, age, education, and ethnic background, it is possible to discover what influences split ticket voting. First, weakening party identification can induce a dealignment process. This, in turn, gives rise to split ticket voting. In the data, the intensity of party identification has an obvious effect on split ticket voting. However, there has been no dealignment. Thus, weakening party identification is not the main reason for split ticket voting. The second factor is ethnic background. Mainlanders, especially young and middle aged voters, are more likely to split their tickets. Third, the related questions of unification or independence and Taiwanese or Chinese identification also have influence. The effect of the unification/independence position is not significant, but the respondents’ ethnic identity is. A fourth finding is that there is no significant coattail effect influencing split ticket voting. Fifth, many voters wish to balance the parties against each other, and so they split their votes. However, this only holds for offices at the same level (mayor and city council) and not for different levels (local and national). Sixth, strategic voting by New Party supporters was very important. New Party supporters were very opposed to Chen Shui-bian, and the New Party nominee did not have much chance of winning. As a result, many split their votes, voting strategically for the KMT mayoral candidate. After examining the six models, we find that the most important factors influencing split ticket voting are ethnic background and strategic voting by New Party supporters. These two factors are intimately connected, of course.