Orientadores: Carlos Alonso Barbosa de Oliveira, José Dari Krein / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Economia / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-26T15:19:52Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cheng_Li_M.pdf: 3595185 bytes, checksum: eea0dacaa1c90e56db176a406edb0942 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014 / Resumo: Três décadas de reforma econômica e abertura, a China tem vivido uma fase de desenvolvimento de transições econômicas de um sistema planejado para a de um mercado, juntamente com um padrão de desenvolvimento típico dualista. A mobilidade do trabalho de um controle restrito durante o período de pré-reforma a um afrouxamento gradual pós-reforma, juntamente com a melhoria de industrialização e expansão da urbanização, apresentou uma transferência de massa sem precedentes em termos de tempo, espaço, ocupação, indústria e escala. No entanto, a sustentabilidade de tal modelo de desenvolvimento do crescimento econômico altamente determinado pela escala da força de trabalho excedente rural restante. Com a fermentação persistente da generalizada falta de trabalho desde 2004, a diminuição gradual do dividendo demográfico atribuído principalmente à implementação da política de planejamento familiar desde 1980, bem como os atuais crescimentos contínuos dos custos de trabalho e a desaceleração do crescimento econômico, quanto tempo pode durar este modelo de desenvolvimento econômico baseado na transferência de força de trabalho, tornou-se um acalorado debate e agitação no campo acadêmico socioeconômico. Portanto, esta pesquisa adotou uma perspectiva de desenvolvimento econômico, através da análise profunda sobre as famosas teorias de transferência de trabalho rural excedente, estabelecendo o modelo de força de trabalho tripartite como a principal contribuição teórica desta pesquisa, e combinado 35 anos de base de dados da China, fornecer uma situação real da transferência de força de trabalho rural excedente chinês / Abstract: Three decades of the economic reform and opening up, China has experienced a development stage of economic transitions from a planned system to a market one, along with a typical dualistic developmental pattern. Labour mobility from a restrict control during the period of pre-reform to a gradual loosening after the reform, along with the improvement of industrialization and expansion of urbanization, presented an unprecedented mass transfer in terms of time, space, occupation, industry and scale. However, the sustainability of such development model of economic growth highly determined by the scale of the remaining rural surplus labour force. With the persistent fermentation of the wide-spread of labour shortage ever since 2004, the gradual diminishing of the demographic dividend mainly attributed to the implementation of the family planning policy since 1980s, as well as the current continuous growing labour costs and the slow down economic growth, how long can this economic development model based on the transfer of labour force last, became a heated debate and socio-economic hotspots in the academic field. Therefore, this research adopted a development economics perspective, through the profound analysis over the famous theories of rural surplus labour transfer, established a tripartite labour supply model, combined 35 years data base from China, provide an actual situation of Chinese rural surplus labour transfer / Mestrado / Economia Social e do Trabalho / Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico

Finanzielle Resilienz und der Umgang mit finanziellen Risiken sind wesentliche Bestandteile einer erfolgreichen finanziellen Inklusion. Die persönlichen Faktoren, die finanzielles Management formen, sind allerdings nicht umfassend bekannt. Diese Dissertation untersucht wie nicht-standard-ökonomische Präferenzen und Vorstellungen („Beliefs“) dazu beitragen können verschiedene Vorgehensweisen im finanziellen Risikomanagement von Haushalten zu verstehen. Der Fokus liegt dabei auf Ländern, die kurz davor stehen einkommensstarke Ökonomien zu werden und in denen die Auswahl an finanziellen Produkten und die finanzielle Inklusion stetig wachsen. Vier Bereiche des finanziellen Risikomanagements werden betrachtet. Kapitel zwei analysiert den Zusammenhang zwischen Ungleichheitsaversion und der Aufnahme von Versicherungen. Dazu wird ein neuartiges Maß für Ungleichheitsaversion konstruiert und in einer Haushalts-Panelumfrage in Thailand verwendet. In Kapitel drei wird der Effekt von sozialen Vergleichen auf die Schuldenaufnahme in einem Laborexperiment in Deutschland untersucht um zwei Arten von Peer Effekten zu entflechten: Sorge um das soziale Ansehen und Peer Information. Kapitel vier erforscht potenzielle Unterschiede in Unsicherheitspräferenzen und in Beliefs zwischen Individuen, die vermeintlich ein hohes Risiko managen: Selbständige aus der Notwendigkeit und Selbstständige aus der Möglichkeit heraus als auch Menschen mit Migrationsgeschichte in Albanien und im Kosovo. In Kapitel fünf werden Beliefs und deren potenzieller Effekt auf Überschuldung innerhalb der gleichen Panel-Stichprobe in Thailand wie in Kapitel zwei studiert. Alle Kapitel folgen einem gemeinsamen methodologischen Ansatz indem Labor- oder sogenannte lab-in-the-field-Experimente verwendet werden. In drei Kapiteln wird die Evidenz aus dem Labor in Relation zu Resultaten aus dem wahren Leben gesetzt, die mit selbstberichteten Umfragedaten erfasst werden. / Financial resilience and managing financial risks are key factors of a successful financial inclusion. The personal factors that shape financial management are, yet, not well understood. This dissertation studies how non-standard economic preferences and beliefs might help explain different financial management practices of households. The focus is on countries that are on the verge of becoming high income economies and where financial products and inclusion are steadily expanding. Four domains of financial risk management are considered. Chapter two analyzes the relationship between inequality aversion and insurance take-up. To this end, a novel measure for inequality aversion is constructed and employed in a household panel survey in Thailand. In chapter three, the effect of social comparison on debt taking is investigated in a lab experiment in Germany to disentangle two kinds of peer effects: social image concerns and peer information. Chapter four explores potential differences in uncertainty preferences and in beliefs between supposedly high-risk managers: necessity and opportunity entrepreneurs as well as return migrants in Albania and Kosovo. In chapter five, beliefs and their potential effect on over-indebtedness are studied using the same panel sample in Thailand as in chapter two. All chapters follow a common methodological approach by using lab(-in-the-field) experiments. In three chapters, lab evidence is set in relation to real life outcomes elicited with self-reported survey data.

En économie du développement, la culture d’évaluation s’est renforcée pour mieux orienter l’aide vers les actions qui ont démontré la preuve de leur efficacité. Dans ce contexte aux pratiques renouvelées, un essor des méthodes expérimentales s’est fait jour dans le domaine de l’évaluation, notamment à travers la méthode des évaluations aléatoires qui est fortement promue par le laboratoire J-PAL, et notamment par Esther Duflo. Contribuant empiriquement à la constitution d’un « fonds scientifique capitalisable » grâce aux connaissances mises à jour, mais comportant des failles persistantes, nous procédons dans cette thèse à une analyse critique de la méthode, avec l’appui d’une récente littérature économique française et anglophone.De plus, nous avons mené une enquête par questionnaire auprès de parents d’élèves du primaire à Madagascar, notre terrain d’étude. Pour la réaliser, nous nous sommes basés sur une évaluation aléatoire qui avait été menée dans ce pays par une doctorante affiliée au J-PAL, et qui concluait à un impact positif d’un traitement à base d’information statistique sur les rendements de l’éducation, délivrée aux parents d’élèves du primaire. En reproduisant ce traitement dans notre enquête, nous avons voulu savoir si l’on pouvait aboutir à des résultats similaires bien que la méthode employée varie. Nous retrouvons globalement les conclusions de l’auteure de l’évaluation aléatoire, bien que nous utilisions une méthode moins purement quantitative. / In development economics, the culture of evaluation is being strengthened to specify which development actions could be effective, and thus allows a better targeting of aid on the actions that have proven their effectiveness. Within this context of renewed practices, an expansion of experimental methods in the evaluation field has emerged, in particular through the method of randomized evaluations strongly promoted by the J-PAL laboratory, particularly by the emblematic figure of Esther Duflo. Contributing empirically to the composition of a « scientific capitalizable fund » thanks to the updated knowledge, but still including persistent limits, we set into this thesis about a critical analysis of this method, with the mobilization of some recent French and English economic literature.Moreover, we conducted a questionnaire survey to primary school pupils’ parents in Madagascar, our field study. To carry out it, we used a randomized evaluation that had been conducted in this country by a PhD student affiliated with the J-PAL and whose finding was the positive effect of some statistical information treatment on returns to education towards primary school pupils’ parents. By reproducing this treatment in our study, we wanted to know whether it was possible to achieve similar results even though the applied method varies. It’s globally matching up with the conclusions of the author of the randomized evaluation, even if we use a less purely quantitative method.

The transfer of technology to developing countries constitutes one of the major debates in the literature on development economics. The present empirical investigation is intended to " contribute to the large existing literature on technological transfer. Its major contribution lies in demonstrating rigorously that the integration of foreign technologies is greatly affected by the socio-economic conditions of the recipient countries. The present study attempts to identify the main socioeconomic characteristics involved in assimilating transferred technlogy. It first provides a quantifiable measure of the rate of technological absorption. Then, in presenting the selection of indicators, the general procedures followed in choosing the sample of countries are summarized and the principles guiding the choice of variables are examined. The model is based on multiple regression analysis, which is discussed in some detail. Another statistical method is used to explore the interdependence of the economic and social indicators, which provides more exact knowledge about their various interactions and lays the groundwork for the problem at hand. Three main indicators are identified that explain a significant-. sixty one percent of the total variance of the dependent variable. These main indicators are the rate of education, trade policies and the availability of certain consumer products. It is found that these variables express different and important dimensions of the third world economy. In general, the results reveal that the rate of technology integration varies greatly with the level of socio economic development. The findings of the investigation are analysed using new and efficient methods of diagnostic techniques, and are also seen within their theoretical perspectives'. The analysis of results is concluded with a discussion of intangible factors that cannot as yet be quantified; factors such as political and managerial quality and yet can be expected to have significant effects on the rate of technological integration. / Ministry of Hydraulics in Algeria

No description available.

No abstract / Development Studies / M.A. (Development Studies)

The use of group lending for poverty alleviation is a widespread feature of modern microfinance. The structure of joint-liability credit - if one member defaults the others are held financially responsible - produces a natural tension between a borrower's social and economic interests. This study integrates theory from economics, sociology, and behavioural experiments to address the question, "How do social and economic mechanisms interact to shape a microcredit group's financial behaviour?" The empirical analysis involves an original dataset from a microfinance institution in Sierra Leone. The total dataset includes 7,025 joint-liability borrowers involved in 47,931 repayment transactions from 2005 to 2011. The empirical methods used are diverse: ethnographic fieldwork, GPS spatial analysis, social affiliation survey design, and multilevel statistical analysis of loan performance data. The original work is structured as three distinct papers. In the first paper, I examine social collateral, the formal use of a borrower's relationships as security against loan default. How does a group's spatial structure affect the efficacy of social collateral? Spatial concentration improves a group's economic performance up to a certain level after which the effect reverses and performance declines. The relationship is driven by a social trade-off between ability and willingness to enforce the loan. Further, groups that consist of multiple spatial fragments produce worse performance. Spatially fragmented groups are prone to splitting into social factions. In the second paper, I question what drives the self-selection process of microcredit group formation. The results show that group leaders prefer members with pre-existing social ties, who are spatially proximate, and have matching business types. The preference for socio-spatial factors is likely motivated by reducing the risk of strategic default by group members. In the third paper, I explore how economic cooperation in small groups evolves over years of repeated interaction. Despite the selective retention of better performing groups, average cooperation rates consistently decline, in terms of contribution and effort. Further, variance across groups continues to increase over 30 months of repeated interaction, suggesting that convergence to a stable cooperation rate has not occurred. Given that group lending exhibits many of the factors found to promote cooperation in laboratory experiments, it is surprising to find such a marked decline in this field setting. Overall, this thesis contributes to economic sociology by dissecting the difficult trade-offs between social and economic motives in group lending and offers policy implications for microfinance institutions regarding group formation heuristics, contract design, and loan management.

Electoral Rules and Leader Selection: Experimental Evidence from Ugandan Community Groups. Despite a large body of work documenting how electoral systems affect policy outcomes, less is known about their impact on leader selection. We study this by comparing two types of participatory decision making in Ugandan community groups: (i) vote by secret ballot and (ii) open discussion with consensus. Random assignment allows us to estimate the causal impact of the rules on leader types and social service delivery. Vote groups are found to elect leaders more similar to the average member while discussion group leaders are positively selected on socio-economic characteristics. Further, dropout rates are significantly higher in discussion groups, particularly for poorer members. After 3.5 years, vote groups are larger in size and their members save less and get smaller loans. We conclude that the secret ballot vote creates more inclusive groups while open discussion groups favor the already economically successful. Preparing for Genocide: Community Meetings in Rwanda. How do political elites prepare the civilian population for participation in violent conflict? We empirically investigate this question using data from the Rwandan Genocide in 1994. Every Saturday before 1994, Rwandan villagers had to meet to work on community infrastructure. The practice was highly politicized and, according to anecdotal evidence, regularly used by the political elites for spreading propaganda in the years before the genocide. This paper presents the first quantitative evidence of this abuse of the community meetings. To establish causality, we exploit cross-sectional variation in meeting intensity induced by exogenous weather fluctuations. We find that an additional rainy Saturday resulted in a five percent lower civilian participation rate in genocide violence. Selection into Borrowing: Survey Evidence from Uganda. In this paper, I study how changes to the standard credit contract affect loan demand and selection into borrowing, using a representative sample of urban micro enterprises, most with no borrowing experience. Hypothetical loan demand questions are used to test whether firm owners respond to changes in loans' contractual terms and whether take-up varies by firms' risk type and other firm owner characteristics. The results indicate that contracts with lower interest rates and less stringent collateral requirements attract less risky borrowers, suggesting that there is scope for improvement of standard financial contract terms. Credit Contract Structure and Firm Growth: Evidence from a Randomized Control Trial. We study the effects of credit contract structure on firm outcomes among small and medium sized firms. A randomized control trial was carried out to distinguish between some of the key constraints to efficient credit use connected to the firms' business environment and production function, namely (i) backloaded returns (ii) uncertain returns and (iii) indivisible fixed costs. Each firm was followed for the 1-year loan cycle. We describe the experiment and present preliminary results from the first 754 out of 2,340 firms to have completed the loan cycle. Firms offered a grace period have higher profits and higher household income than firms receiving a rebate later on as well as the control group. They also increased the number of paid employees  and reduced the number of unpaid employees, an effect also found among firms that received a cash subsidy at the beginning of the loan cycle. We discuss potential mechanisms behind these effects.

Land Ownership and Development: Evidence from Postwar Japan This paper analyzes the effect of land ownership on technology adoption and structural transformation. A large-scale land reform in postwar Japan enforced a large number of tenant farmers who were cultivating land to become owners of this land. I find that the municipalities which had many owner farmers after the land reform tended to experience a quick entry of new agricultural machines which became available after the reform. The adoption of the machines reduced the dependence on family labor, and led to a reallocation of labor from agriculture to industries and service sectors in urban centers when these sectors were growing. I also analyze the aggregate impact of labor reallocation on economic growth by using a simple growth model and micro data. I find that it increased GDP by about 12 percent of the GDP in 1974 during 1955-74. I also find a large and positive effect on agricultural productivity. Loyalty and Treason: Theory and Evidence from Japan's Land Reform A historically large-scale land reform in Japan after World War II enforced by the occupation forces redistributed a large area of farmlands to tenant farmers. The reform demolished hierarchical structures by weakening landlords' power in villages and towns. This paper investigates how the change in the social and economic structure of small communities affects electoral outcomes in the presence of clientelism. I find that there was a considerable decrease in the vote share of conservative parties in highly affected areas after the reform. I find the supporting evidence that the effect was driven by the fact that the tenant farmers who had obtained land exited from the long-term tenancy contract and became independent landowners. The effect was relatively persistent. Finally, I also find the surprising result that there was a decrease, rather than an increase, in turnout in these areas after the reform.  Geography and State Fragmentation We examine how geography affects the location of borders between sovereign states in Europe and surrounding areas from 1500 until today at the grid-cell level. This is motivated by an observation that the richest places in this region also have the highest historical border presence, suggesting a hitherto unexplored link between geography and modern development, working through state fragmentation. The raw correlations show that borders tend to be located on mountains, by rivers, closer to coasts, and in areas suitable for rainfed, but not irrigated, agriculture. Many of these patterns also hold with rigorous spatial controls. For example, cells with more rivers and more rugged terrain than their neighboring cells have higher border densities. However, the fragmenting effects of suitability for rainfed agriculture are reversed with such neighbor controls. Moreover, we find that borders are less likely to survive over time when they separate large states from small, but this size-difference effect is mitigated by, e.g., rugged terrain.

This thesis considers how fiscal and monetary policy should be conducted in resourcerich economies. It consists of three papers addressing: whether governments should spend, save or invest volatile oil income; the assets they should save in; and how monetary policy should respond. The first, “Eight principles for managing resource wealth”, shows that capital-scarce countries should save relatively less against oil price volatility, and invest more in domestic capital. They also should prepare for volatility in advance, and treat savings as a source of income rather than a temporary buffer. To show this the paper develops a framework that nests a variety of existing results, which are presented in eight principles. The second, “The Elephant in the Ground: Oil extraction and asset allocation in sovereign wealth funds”, shows that governments should use sovereign wealth funds to offset oil price risk, extract oil faster if its price is pro-cyclical, and use precautionary savings to manage any residual volatility. To do this it combines three strands of literature for the first time: on continuous-time portfolio theory, oil extraction and precautionary savings. The third, “Optimal monetary responses to oil discoveries”, addresses the anticipation effects around an oil discovery. It shows that the terms of trade will need to appreciate twice: once when oil is discovered and consumers anticipate future revenues; and again when the government begins spending the revenues. Oil wealth will give the monetary authority an incentive to appreciate the terms of trade, in addition to stabilising domestic inflation and the output gap. Optimal policy is well-approximated by a standard monetary rule that also responds to expected changes in the natural level of output.