Il cambiamento climatico è una sfida chiave dei nostri tempi, soprattutto per i paesi in via di sviluppo, che basano i loro processi di crescita sull'utilizzo delle risorse naturali e sul settore agricolo. Sebbene esistano varie strategie e piani, sia a livello pubblico che privato, per far fronte agli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici, l'implementazione delle misure di adattamento è ancora limitata. Questo è collegato alla presenza d'incertezza riguardo agli impatti dei cambiamenti climatici in futuro. Pertanto, nuovi strumenti e processi decisionali dovrebbero essere valutati e diffusi nel tentativo di aiutare i decisori pubblici e privati nella definizione e attuazione di misure concrete di adattamento. In questa tesi, la Portfolio Analysis viene applicata alla valutazione di investimenti agricoli in Ruanda / Climate change is a key challenge of our times, especially for developing countries, which significantly rely on natural resources and on the agriculture sector. Even though there are various strategies and plans to face climate change impacts, the implementation of adaptation measures is still uneven. This is connected to the presence of uncertainty about the impacts of climate change in the future. Therefore, new decision-making tools and decision processes should be assessed and disseminated in the attempt to help the decision makers in the definition and implementation of concrete adaptation measures. In this dissertation, the Portfolio Analysis methodology is applied in the evaluation of agricultural investments in Rwanda

No abstract available / Development Studies / M.A. (Development Studies)

Diese Arbeit untersucht den Einfluss verhaltensökonomischer Aspekte und Bildung für die finanzielle Entwicklung. Sie besteht aus vier Kapiteln, welche jeweils ein separates Forschungspapier darstellen. Die Kapitel decken folgende Themen ab: Determinanten einer impulsiven Kreditaufnahme, Hindernisse bei finanzieller Inklusion, die Auswirkungen von finanzieller Bildung und die finanziellen Folgen eines Schocks. Alle Kapitel nutzen Umfragedaten. Außerdem nutzen einige Kapitel experimentelle (Labor-)Ergebnisse. Nach einer Einleitung untersucht Kapitel zwei die Rolle von Selbstkontrolle und finanzieller Bildung bei einer impulsiven Kreditaufnahme und analysiert experimentelle Daten, die in einem Labor in Berlin erhoben wurden, sowie Umfragedaten aus der Innovations-Stichprobe des Sozio-oekonomischen Panels. Kapitel drei trägt zu einem besseren Verständnis der Determinanten und Hindernisse für die Nutzung von Mobile Money in einem einkommensschwachen Land bei, wobei es auch den Beitrag von Mobile Money zur finanziellen Inklusion betrachtet. Da Bildung die Wahrscheinlichkeit erhöht, dass neue Technologien genutzt werden, könnte finanzielle Bildung weitere Bemühungen zur finanziellen Inklusion und zum Verbraucherschutz für die finanzielle Entwicklung sinnvoll ergänzen. Daher ist es wichtig, die Auswirkungen von Programmen zu bewerten, die auf finanzielle Bildung abzielen. Dafür werden in Kapitel vier die Auswirkungen eines Finanzbildungsprogramms und seine Spillover-Effekte anhand einer randomisierten kontrollierten Studie analysiert. Kapitel fünf beleuchtet die Auswirkungen der COVID-19-Pandemie auf das finanzielle Wohlergehen und die Technologienutzung von Kleinstunternehmern. Die in Kapitel drei bis fünf verwenden Daten wurden in zwei groß angelegten Erhebungswellen im ländlichen Uganda erhoben. / This thesis focuses on the role of behavioral characteristics and education for financial development. It consists of four chapters, each being a separate research paper, covering related areas: determinants of impulsive borrowing, barriers to financial inclusion, the impact of financial education, and the financial consequences due to a shock. All chapters use survey evidence, and some include (lab) experimental findings. After the introduction, Chapter two investigates the role of self-control and financial literacy for impulsive borrowing, analyzing experimental data collected in a laboratory in Berlin and survey data provided by the German Socio-Economic Panel's Innovation Sample. Chapter three contributes to a better understanding of the determinants and barriers to mobile money adoption in a low-income country, and the contribution of mobile money services to financial inclusion. As education makes it more likely to adopt new technologies, financial education could complement other financial inclusion and consumer protection efforts for financial development. Thus, it is relevant to assess the consequences of programs targeting financial education. Therefore, chapter four analyzes the impact of a financial education program and its spillover effects via a randomized controlled trial. Chapter five sheds light on the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on the financial well-being and technology adoption of micro-entrepreneurs. Chapter three to five use data collected in two large-scale survey waves in rural Uganda.

[pt] Esta tese é composta por 3 capítulos em Economia do Desenvolvimento, relacionando desastres naturais e a qualidade do ambiente com engajamento político e capital social. No primeiro capítulo, mostramos que desastres naturais podem levar à punição de incumbentes. De forma interessante, tal punição é consequência da heterogeneidade na participação política. Em eleições locais, eleitores em regiões onde o incumbente era do partido no poder a nível nacional (DPJ) compareceram menos às urnas, enquanto eleitores em regiões onde o incumbente era do principal partido concorrente (LDP) compareceram mais. Como consequência, o partido no poder perdeu mais assentos. A potencial razão para a heterogeneidade observada está na decepção na população em relação ao DPJ. Ainda, é também mostrada a heterogeneidade em relação ao nível de capital social. Enquanto é mais associado à maior participação política, a maior resiliência potencialmente levou a uma diferença no padrão de votos. O segundo capítulo sugere um arcabouço teórico para conectar as literaturas empírica e teórica sobre a influência da qualidade e dos riscos ambientais na formação de comportamento cooperativo. Em linha com a literatura empírica, mostra que, a depender das relações entre o ambiente e um bem público e das crenças dos indivíduos sobre o comportamento cooperativo dos demais, quanto maior for a probabilidade de ocorrência de tempos ruins, maior será a propensão de indivíduos em uma comunidade de agirem coletivamente. Finalmente, o terceiro capítulo investiga os efeitos de desastres naturais na formação de capital social e em sua persistência no longo prazo. Se valendo se dados em terremotos passados no Japão, mostra que indivíduos vivendo em cidades rurais Japonesas que foram atingidas no passado exibem hoje em dia níveis mais altos de confiança e engajamento político. / [en] This thesis consists of 3 chapters in development economics that relate natural disasters and environmental quality to political engagement and social capital. In the first chapter, we show that natural disasters can lead to punishment of incumbents. Interestingly, such punishment is the result of some heterogeneity in political participation. In local elections, turnout was lower in regions where the incumbent belonged to the party in power at the country level (DPJ), while turnout was higher in regions where the incumbent belonged to the main rival (LDP). As a result, the ruling party suffered a loss in these elections. The possible reason for this heterogeneity lies in the population s disappointment with the DPJ. In addition, it shows a further heterogeneity in regards to the level of social capital. Whereas it is related to higher political participation, the associated higher community resilience possibly led to different voting behavior. The second chapter proposes a theoretical framework to link the empirical and theoretical literatures on the influence of environmental quality and risk on the emergence of cooperative behavior. Consistent with the empirical literature, it is shown that depending on the relationship between the environment and the club good and individuals beliefs about the cooperative behavior of others, the higher the probability of bad times, the greater the propensity of individuals to engage in collective action within a community. Finally, the third chapter examines the impact of natural disasters on the formation of social capital and its long-term persistence. Using data on ancient earthquakes in Japan, it is shown that people living in rural Japanese cities that were strongly hit in the past currently exhibit higher levels of trust and political engagement.

[pt] Esta tese é composta por 3 capítulos em Economia do Desenvolvimento, todos eles relacionados com o papel das políticas públicas, quer na promoção de políticas sustentáveis para a preservação de recursos naturais no longo prazo, quer na prestação de serviços públicos eficientes ou no questionamento do accountability das atuais instituições democráticas. O primeiro artigo mostra que, ao adotar uma tecnologia que incorpora práticas agrícolas sustentáveis, os agricultores têm efeitos dinâmicos positivos na produtividade e na resiliência climática. Apresentamos evidências do mecanismo dessas externalidades: melhorias no solo. O segundo artigo apresenta os resultados de um RCT desenvolvido para testar se uma intervenção gerencial em centros de saúde em Moçambique pode reduzir falhas de coordenação, aumentando a retenção de pacientes com HIV ao tratamento e a qualidade do atendimento prestado. Por fim, o terceiro analisa os grandes protestos de rua ocorridos no Brasil em 2013 para analisar se os protestos podem funcionar como mecanismo de accountability de políticos eleitos. Usando dados históricos do Twitter, criamos uma medida da intensidade dos protestos e quão ruidosas foram as demandas dos manifestantes em cada município. Apresentamos evidências de que os protestos podem funcionar como mecanismo de responsabilização apenas se as mensagens enviadas pelos manifestantes são nítidas e claras e os políticos enfrentam incentivos à reeleição. / [en] This thesis is composed of 3 chapters in development economics, all of which relate to the role of public policy either in promoting sustainable policies for long-run maintenance of natural resources, or meeting citizens needs through efficient service delivery or questioning the accountability of current political institutions. The first paper shows that, by adopting a technology that incorporates sustainable agricultural practices, farmers have positive dynamic effects on productivity and climate resilience.We provide evidence of the mechanism of these dynamic effects: soil improvement. The second one presents the results of an RCT designed to test whether a managerial intervention in health centers in Mozambique can reduce coordination failures, increasing HIV patients retention in care and quality of care provided. Finally, the third one look at the large street protests that took place in Brazil in 2013 to analyze whether protests can work as an accountability mechanism for elected politicians. Using Twitter historical data, we create a measure of protest intensity and how noisy protesters demands were in each municipality. We present evidence that protests may work as accountability mechanism only if messages sent by protesters are sharp and clear, and politicians face reelection incentives.

This dissertation attempts to integrate the household and children more fluidly into measures of well-being in the past. In part one, I develop a Monte Carlo simulation to test some of the assumptions of Allen’s welfare ratio methodology. These included his assumptions that family size was constant over time, that there were no female-headed households and that women and children did not participate in the labour force. After all of the adjustments, it appears that Allen’s welfare ratios underestimate the welfare ratios of a demographically representative group of families, especially if women and children’s labour force participation is included. However, the predicted distributions also highlight the struggles of agricultural labourers, who are given separate consideration. Even the average agricultural labourers’ family with women and children working would have had to rely of self- provisioning, gleaning, poor relief or the extension of the working year to make ends meet at the poorest point in their family life cycle. Part two adjusts Floud et al.’s estimates of calorie availability in the English economy from 1700 to 1909 for the costs of digestion, pregnancy and lactation. Taken together, these three additional costs reduced the amount calories available by around 15 per cent in 1700 but only by 5 per cent in 1909 because of the changing composition of the English diet. Part three presents a new adaptive framework for studying changes in children’s growth patterns over time and a new methodology, longitudinal growth studies, for measuring gender disparities in health in the past. An adaptive framework for understanding growth provides a more parsimonious explanation for the vast catch-up growth achieved by slave children in the antebellum American South. The slave children were only able to achieve this catch-up growth because they were programmed for a tall height trajectory by relatively good conditions in utero. Finally, impoverished girls experienced greater catch-up growth than boys in two schools in late-nineteenth century Boston, USA and early-twentieth century London, suggesting that girls were deprived relative to boys before entering these institutions.

Some 5 million people were classified as internally displaced in Colombia at the end of 2012, which represented about 10 per cent of the population and the highest number in the world at the time. Colombia differs from other countries with high levels of displacement in that it is comparatively politically stable, has effective national institutions, a relatively strong formal economy, and can by no means be described as a ‘failed’ or ‘failing’ state. The displacement literature tends to characterise the phenomenon as a humanitarian crisis and a side effect of the long-running civil war. But Colombians continue to be displaced in very large numbers despite the formal demobilization of the paramilitaries in 2006 and the diminished military capacity and engagement of the guerrillas since about the same period: the same groups that are widely regarded as being the main perpetrators of displacement. This thesis contends that displacement of the civilian population in Colombia is frequently not a consequence of violence, but rather the primary objective, where violence plays a facilitatory role. Moreover, the thesis asserts that these massive levels of displacement are substantively linked to predominantly economically-motivated logics and are regionally specific. By examining an agricultural commodity that has significantly expanded relatively recently in Colombia - African palm oil - this research examines if and how expanded cultivation may be linked to displacement. Using a political economy framework of analysis combined with empirical fieldwork, it explores the ‘localised displacement logics’ whereby land is coercively acquired by powerful local groups. The thesis concludes that the abandonment and dispossession of land from poor and marginalised groups constitutes part of an ongoing process of capitalist expansion and statebuilding in Colombia. Contrary to assertions that it is the intra-state conflict that constitutes the central obstacle to development, Colombia’s current trajectory of capitalist development may actually be a central obstacle to sustainable peace and not lead to an end to displacement.

In the last decade, scholars have recognized economic development and modernization as crucial themes in the history of the twentieth century and the ‘global Cold War.’ Yet while historians have written lucid histories of the role of the social sciences in American foreign policy in the Third World, far less is known on the Soviet Union’s ideological and material support during the same period for countries like Egypt, India, Ethiopia, Angola, or – most prominently – Afghanistan. This dissertation argues that the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan is best understood as the final and most costly of a series developmental interventions staged in that country during the latter half of the twentieth century by Afghans, Soviets, Americans, Germans and others. Cold War-era Afghanistan is best understood as a laboratory for ideas about the nation-state and the idea of a ‘national economy.’ One can best understand Afghanistan during that period less through a common but ahistorical ‘graveyard of empires’ narrative, and more in terms of the history of the social sciences, the state system in South and Central Asia, and the ideological changes in ideas about the state and the economy in 20th century economic thought. Four chapters explore this theme, looking at the history of the Soviet social sciences, developmental interventions in Afghanistan prior to 1978, a case study of Soviet advisors in eastern Afghanistan, and Soviet interventions to protect Afghan women. Making use of new materials from Soviet, German, and American archives, and dozens of interviews with former Soviet advisors, this dissertation makes a new and meaningful contribution to the historical literature on the Soviet Union, Central Asia, and international history.

This thesis consists of two parts: Part I (Chapters 2 and 3) critically assesses a set of methodological tools that are widely used in the literature and that are applied to the empirical analysis in Part II (Chapters 4 and 5). Using a randomised experiment, the first chapter compares pen-and-paper interviewing (PAPI) with computer-assisted personal interviewing (CAPI). We observe a large error count in PAPI, which is likely to introduce sample bias. We examine the effect of PAPI consumption measurement error on poverty analysis and compare both applications in terms of interview length, costs and respondents’ perceptions. Next, we formalise an unproven source of ordinary least squares estimation bias in standard linear-in-means peer effects models. Deriving a formula for the magnitude of the bias, we discuss its underlying parameters. We show when the bias is aggravated in models adding cluster fixed effects and how it affects inference and interpretation of estimation results. We reveal that two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation strategies eliminate the bias and provide illustrative simulations. The results may explain some counter-intuitive findings in the social interaction literature. We then use the linear-in-means model to estimate endogenous peer effects on the awareness of a community-based development programme of vulnerable groups in rural Tanzania. We denote the geographically nearest neighbours set as the relevant peer group in this context and employ a popular 2SLS estimation strategy on a unique spatial household dataset, collected using CAPI, to identify significant average and heterogeneous endogenous peer effects. The final chapter investigates social network effects in decentralised food aid (free food and food for work) allocation processes in Ethiopia, in the aftermath of a serious drought. We find that food aid is responsive to need, as well as being targeted at households with less access to informal support. However, we also find strong correlations with political connections, especially in the immediate aftermath of the drought.

This thesis inquires into the meaning of the right to security of person. This right is found in many international, regional and domestic human rights instruments. However, academic discourse reveals disagreement about the meaning of the right. The thesis first considers case law from the European Convention on Human Rights, the South African Bill of Rights and the Canadian Charter. The analysis shows that courts too disagree about the meaning of the right to security of person. The thesis then takes a theoretical approach to understanding the meaning of the right. It is argued that the concept of ‘security’ establishes that the right imposes both positive and negative duties but that ‘security’ does not determine which interests are protected by the right. For this, we need consider the meaning of the ‘person’. The notion of personhood as understood in the ‘capabilities approach’ of Amartya Sen and Martha Nussbaum is then introduced. It is suggested that this theory could be used to identify the interests protected by the right. Next, the theoretical developments are applied to the legal context in order to illustrate the variety of interests the right to security of person would protect and the type of duties it would impose. As a result, it is argued that the idea of ‘security of person’ is too broad to form the subject matter of an individual legal right. This raises a question over the relationship between security of person and human rights law. It is proposed that instead of recognising an individual legal right to security of person, human rights law as a whole could be seen as a mechanism to secure the person, the capabilities approach determining what it takes to fulfil a right and thereby secure the person.