Der Klimawandel ist eine globale Herausforderung, aber seine Auswirkungen sind besonders stark in Entwicklungsländern zu spüren. So erleiden arme Menschen deutlich höhere Verluste, weil sie Extremereignissen stärker ausgesetzt sind und weniger Ressourcen für Anpassung und Schockbewältigung haben. Trotz der weitreichenden Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf Haushalte in Entwicklungsländern ist die aktuelle Forschung zum Zusammenhang zwischen Klimawandel, Armut und Entwicklung begrenzt. Insbesondere die langfristigen Folgen von Wetterextremen für betroffene Haushalte sind wenig erforscht. Diese Arbeit soll dazu beitragen, die komplexen Zusammenhänge zwischen veränderten klimatischen Bedingungen und Entwicklung auf Haushaltsebene besser zu verstehen. Kapitel 2 befasst sich mit den unmittelbaren Folgen eines extremen Wetterereignisses für die Ernährungssicherheit, wobei Nahrungsmenge und -qualität untersucht werden. Es analysiert, inwieweit die Selbstversorgung mit Nahrungsmitteln die Einkommenselastizität für Ernährung verringern kann und zeigt die negativen Folgen eines Wetterschocks auf die Ernährungsqualität auf. Kapitel 3 befasst sich mit der Schockpersistenz. Basierend auf einem theoretischen Modell zeigt es negative Wachstumseffekte eines einmaligen extremen Wetterereignisses, zusätzlich zu den unmittelbaren Verlusten. Es zeigt auch, dass die Folgen von extremen Wetterereignissen stärker sind als die von anderen Schocks auf Haushaltsebene. Kapitel 4 analysiert das Einkommenspotenzial in der nicht-landwirtschaftlichen Kleinstselbstständigkeit. Selbst in diesem Kontext unvollständiger Märkte existieren robuste Bildungsrenditen. Das Kapitel zeigt außerdem verschiedene Übertragungskanäle auf. Zusammengenommen fordern diese Ergebnisse politische Maßnahmen, die den Nexus Klimawandel - Entwicklung auf unterschiedlichen Ebenen adressieren: Unmittelbare Katastrophenhilfe sowie längerfristige Anpassungsunterstützungen. / Anthropogenic climate change is a global challenge, but its effects are felt disproportionally in developing countries. As such, poor people incur significantly higher disaster-induced losses due to higher shock exposure and vulnerability as well as fewer resources for adaptation and recovery. Despite the far-reaching impacts of climate change on households in developing countries and the predicted aggravation of climate change outcomes, there is still little research focusing on the link between them. In particular, the long-term consequences of weather-related disasters on the livelihood of poor households are not well understood. This thesis aims to help our understanding of the complex links between changing climatic conditions and development for affected households. It sheds light on three different stages of the climate-change – development nexus. Chapter 2 is concerned with the immediate consequences of an extreme weather event for food security, focusing on dietary quantity and quality. It analyses to what extent food self-provisioning can help reduce the income elasticity of consumption and shows the negative effects of a weather-related disaster on dietary quality. Chapter 3 looks at shock persistence. Based on a theoretical model, it provides robust evidence for negative growth effects of a one-off extreme weather event, in addition to the immediate losses caused. It also demonstrates that the effects of extreme weather events are stronger than those of other household-level shocks. Chapter 4 analyses the income-earning potential in non-agricultural micro self-employment. It provides robust evidence for the existence of returns to education even in a context of petty self-employment, highlighting different transmission channels. Put together, these results call for policy action addressing all stages of the climate change – development nexus: Immediate disaster relief as well as longer-term mitigation and adaptation efforts.

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This dissertation empirically studies the interplay of government policies, finance, and economic development. More specifically, it considers the impact of corporate taxes on employment, of bank regulation on financial information sharing on banking stability and of banking crises on democracy. Two of the chapters focus on Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The third one takes a more global perspective. Chapter 1 evaluates the impact of corporate income tax rates (CIT) on employment at the firm level for a sample of SSA countries. It finds that on average, firms employ more workers in countries with higher CIT rates. This is consistent with the fact that corporate tax revenues allow governments to provide public goods and infrastructure which are crucial to firm activities. We report estimation results to support this assumption. More specifically, while the marginal effect of CIT decreases with income level or with government expenditures, it increases with the level of democracy. Furthermore, we also find that the effect of CIT rates on employment works partially through improvements in the business environment in which firms operate. Chapter 2 assesses the effects of government policies setting the extent to which credit information on the credit history of borrowers is shared among lenders. It shows that credit information sharing stabilizes banks. Moreover, despite foreign banks having an informational disadvantage over domestic banks due to information frictions and would hence benefit more from credit information sharing, the results indicate that both types of banks are affected in the same way. This suggests that foreign banks rely on alternative strategies to compensate for their informational disadvantage in local markets. Lastly, Chapter 3 documents the impact of banking crises on the level of democracy. It provides evidence that democracy improves in the 10-year window following the occurrence of a banking crisis. The results also highlight the presence of several non-linearities. First, severe banking crises have larger effects on democracy than moderate ones. Second, the positive effect of banking crises on democracy is mostly driven by non-democratic countries. Finally, the bulk of the effect materializes from the third year after the crisis occurred. / Cette thèse étudie empiriquement l'interaction des politiques gouvernementales, de la finance, et du développement économique. Plus précisément, il examine l'impact de la fiscalité des entreprises sur l'emploi, de la réglementation bancaire relative au partage d'informations sur le crédit sur la stabilité bancaire, et des crises bancaires sur la démocratie. Les deux premiers chapitres se focalisent sur les pays d'Afrique subsaharienne. Le troisième adopte une perspective plus globale pour couvrir. Le premier chapitre évalue l'impact des taux d'imposition des sociétés (IS) sur l'emploi au niveau de l'entreprise pour un échantillon de pays d'Afrique subsaharienne. Ses résultats montrent qu'en moyenne, les entreprises emploient plus de travailleurs dans les pays où les taux de taxation des entreprises sont plus élevés. Cela s’explique par le fait que les recettes de l'impôt sur les sociétés permettent aux gouvernements de financer des biens publics et des infrastructures qui sont essentiels aux activités des entreprises. Nous présentons des résultats d'estimation pour soutenir cette hypothèse. Plus précisément, alors que l'effet marginal de l'IS diminue avec le niveau de revenu ou avec les dépenses publiques, il augmente avec le niveau de démocratie. En outre, nous constatons également que l'effet des taux d'IS sur l'emploi s'explique en partie par l'amélioration de l'environnement des affaires dans lequel opèrent les entreprises. Le second chapitre évalue les effets des politiques gouvernementales fixant la mesure dans laquelle les informations sur les antécédents de crédit des emprunteurs sont partagées entre les prêteurs. Il montre que le partage d'informations sur le crédit permet de stabiliser les banques. De plus, bien que les banques étrangères aient un désavantage informationnel par rapport aux banques nationales en raison de frictions d'information et bénéficieraient donc davantage du partage d'informations sur le crédit, les résultats indiquent que les deux types de banques sont affectées de la même manière. Cela suggère que les banques étrangères s'appuient sur des stratégies alternatives pour compenser leur désavantage informationnel sur les marchés locaux. Enfin, le chapitre 3 documente l'impact des crises bancaires sur le niveau de démocratie. Il fournit la preuve que la démocratie s'améliore dans la fenêtre de 10 ans suivant l’occurrence d'une crise bancaire. Les résultats mettent également en évidence la présence de plusieurs non-linéarités. Premièrement, les crises bancaires graves ont des effets plus importants sur la démocratie que les crises modérées. Deuxièmement, l'effet positif des crises bancaires sur la démocratie est principalement attribuable aux pays non démocratiques. Pour finir, l'essentiel de l'effet se matérialise à partir de la troisième année après la survenance de la crise. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This research, has relevance in the wake of dwindling aid channelled to the third world rural poor. This study has explored ways of breaking away from benevolence and economism. The research explores four objectives that are focussed on scanning the boundary, in terms of challenges and possible solutions. This provides some in-depth understanding of challenges that face the process of establishing self-sustaining institutions of development. In the last two objectives, the research explores some programming alternatives that would enhance the establishment of democratic and participatory organisations that maximise social capital and grassroots democratisation. A list of guidelines specific to institutions has been drawn. The results of the survey reveal that sustainability cannot be predicted due to the uncertainties and ambiguities associated with project success. The hypothesis that participation and grassroots democratisation facilitates project success has been validated and there was greater project success in participatory organisations, given the baseline context. / Development Studies / M.A. (Development Studies)

This thesis shows how the Process Analysis Method (PAM) can be applied to assess technologies used to mitigate arsenic from drinking water in rural India, using a set of sustainability indicators. Stakeholder perspectives, gathered from a fieldwork survey of 933 households in West Bengal in 2012, played a significant role in this assessment. This research found that the ‘Most Important’ issues as specified by the technology users are cost, trust, distance from their home to the clean water source (an indicator of convenience), and understanding the health effects of arsenic. It was also found that none of the ten technologies evaluated are economically viable, as many do not charge user-fees, which creates reliance upon donations to meet recurring costs. Utilisation of a technology is strongly related to sociocultural capital, but in many cases, features that contribute to sociocultural value, like regular testing of the treated water, are not included in the financial budget. It is suggested that increased awareness might change attitudes to arsenic-rich waste and its disposal protocols. This waste is often currently discarded in an uncontrolled manner in the local environment, giving rise to the possibility of point-source recontamination. All technologies proved to have difficulties in dealing with waste, except the Tipot and Dug wells which produce no waste. Of the methods considered, the BESU technology scored highest, but still only with 47-62% of the maximum scores achievable within each domain. This explains the widespread failure of mitigation projects across the region. The indicators and metrics show where improvements can be made. A model scheme based on these findings is outlined which could be applied with the objective of increasing utilisation and improving sustainability. It can be concluded that a product stewardship approach should be taken in regard to design, implementation and operation of the technologies, including the creation of a regulated toxic waste collection and disposal industry.

The <u>first essay</u> [“Twin Deficits and Free Lunches: Macroeconomic Outcomes In Anticipation of Foreign Aid”] concerns itself with situations in which private agents anticipate a future windfall (free lunch) that will help service the debt resulting from a present fiscal expansion (implemented via a temporary tax cut). Such expectations of a windfall can arise in the context of natural resource discoveries or, more interestingly, due to perceptions by agents in “too important to fail” countries that will be bailed out through higher foreign aid or debt relief. We employ an overlapping generations model featuring credit constraints to study the real effects of such free lunch expectations in a small open economy, drawing contrasts with the standard tax and money finance closure rules. The model is solved analytically and shows that anticipated aid is equivalent to current aid when agents have perfect foresight, so that a temporary tax cut is seen as permanent. Accordingly, agents raise their consumption and indebtedness (at the expense of future generations) by an amount that is an increasing function of their “impatience” (subjective rates of time preference plus probability of death). A worsening of the current account obtains (twin deficits) across a range of plausible closure rules, including those featuring money finance. The introduction of credit constrained households (we study the variant where myopic agents spend their current disposable incomes) does not alter the basic result in the case of full aid finance, but does matter for mixed tax-aid regimes, in more complex settings where agent expectations and donor promises on aid diverge, and when governments face borrowing constraints so that the timing of aid delivery matters. The <u>second essay</u> [“The Role of Domestic Debt in Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation For Developing Economies”] focuses on the remaining source of government financing, i.e. domestic debt, and the role it can play in mobilizing private savings, facilitating credit intermediation in higher risk settings (i.e. serving a “collateral” function on bank balance sheets), developing financial markets and supporting economic growth in general. To investigate this question empirically, we set up a new domestic debt database covering about 100 developing economies, going back three decades to 1975; explore Granger causality links between domestic debt and key macroeconomic and institutional variables; and estimate the growth impact of domestic debt using panel regressions, allowing for non-linear effects. Domestic debt, as a share of GDP is found to exert a significant positive impact on economic growth, with potential channels including domestic savings mobilization, provision of risk-insurance on banks’ balance sheets; and greater institutional accountability of the state to its citizens. Although this result countervails more established arguments against domestic debt (i.e. that it leads to crowding out and banks to become lazy), there is some evidence that above a ratio of 35 percent of bank deposits, domestic debt does begin to undermine economic growth. The growth payoff also depends on debt quality, with higher payoffs observed for positive interest-rate bearing marketable debt issued to nonbank sectors. The <u>third and final essay</u> [“Why Do Banks in Developing Economies Hold Domestic Government Securities?”] explores demand-side determinants of domestic debt, by focusing on commercial bank holdings of government paper, discriminating carefully between voluntary factors (such as mean-variance portfolio optimization) and statutory ones (cash reserve and capital adequacy requirements). The analysis is made possible by the construction of a dataset on government and private returns (real and nominal) for almost 600 banks from 70 emerging and low-income economies, spanning the (pre-Basel II) period 1995-2005. A battery of structural cross-section regressions indicates that banks’ portfolio decisions are at least as significantly influenced by mean-variance considerations as regulatory factors: the actual portfolio share of government securities (λ) responds intuitively, and sizably, to variations in the moments of the distributions for government and private returns as well as in the minimum-variance portfolio share (λ*). Higher cash reserve requirements tilt portfolios away from government securities toward riskier private lending, while higher capital adequacy requirements work the other way. The association between actual portfolios and the identified determinants is noticeably weaker at lower ends of the λ distribution, suggesting the domination of non-CAPM factors in those contexts.

The regulation of hedge funds has been at the centre of a global policy debate for much of the past decade. Several factors feature in this debate including the magnitude of current global investments in hedge funds and the potential of hedge funds to both generate wealth and destabilise financial markets. The first part of the thesis describes the nature of hedge funds and locates the work in relation to four elements in existing theory including regulatory competition theory, the concept of differential mobility as identified by Musgrave, Kane’s concept of the regulatory dialectic between regulators and regulatees, and the concept of unique sets of trust and confidence factors that individual jurisdictions convey to the market. It also identifies a series of questions that de-limit the scope of the present work. These include whether there is evidence that regulatory competition occurs in the context of the provision of domicile for hedge funds, what are the factors which account for the current global distribution of hedge fund domicile, what latitude for regulatory competition is available to jurisdictions competing to provide the domicile for hedge funds, how is such latitude shaped by factors intrinsic and extrinsic to the competing jurisdictions, and why do the more powerful onshore jurisdictions competing to provide the domicile for hedge funds not shut down their smaller and weaker competitors? The second part of the thesis examines the regulatory environment for hedge funds in three so-called offshore jurisdictions, specifically the Cayman Islands, Bermuda and the British Virgin Islands, as well as two onshore jurisdictions, specifically the United Kingdom and the United States. The final section presents a series of conclusions and their implications for both regulatory competition theory and policy.

This dissertation describes the manner by which a multinational corporation (MNC) enacts a market-based logic with a locally embedded partner in a complex and unfamiliar operating setting to fulfil both business and social objectives. It examines a hybrid partnership between BP, an MNC, and SSP, a rural Indian non-governmental organisation (NGO). Together, the organisations trained rural women, who were affiliated with SSP, as agents to distribute and sell BP’s ‘smokeless’ cookstoves and fuel pellets to households who cook on smoky firewood stoves. The research draws on two theories—neo-institutional organizational theory and real markets theory—to examine the process by which logics are aligned across partners and projected and translated into the rural Indian exchange setting. It constructs a four-actor model (MNC, NGO, agent, customer) to explore the exchange relationships between the actors at the meso- and micro-levels. At the meso-level, it explains how the MNC and NGO’s non-aligned logics, asymmetric power dynamics, and lack of mutual trust contribute to the venture’s failure. In addition, the NGO was so determined to succeed as a professional, market-driven, channel partner that it shed part of its identity as a civil advocacy organisation and adopted mainstream commercial practices that were not sensitive to the needs of its local stakeholders. At the micro-level, the partners did not come to a common understanding with the agents regarding the cultural challenges they faced marketing the stove. Moreover, the marketing strategy glossed over the multi-layered social relationships and culinary, behavioural, and religious practices that needed to be translated for the technology to meet the needs of consumers. Using gritty ethnographic data, the dissertation highlights a challenge that large, foreign companies face when entering ‘Base of the Pyramid’ markets, namely the inconsistency between the MNC’s market logic and the wider associational logics that motivate village agents and customers.

Between 2000 and 2015 the Millennium Development Goals were the focus of much global attention and activity. They were selected in light of astounding poverty, with over 1 billion people at the time living on less than $1 per day. In a sense the MDGs were morally undeniable. The focus of this study is MDG2, universal primary education. It sets out to establish how and why MDG2 came to be selected. Whilst its selection seems obvious, for years developing countries complained about the short-sightedness of prioritising primary over secondary and tertiary education (Klees 2008). A task force commissioned by the World Bank and UNESCO at the time showed that the Bank’s rate of return analysis on primary education was flawed. It argued that developing countries need highly educated people to be economic and social entrepreneurs, develop good governance, strong institutions and infrastructure. In this way MDG2’s selection is problematic. Using case study method, first the literature is examined. Three hypotheses are generated: one based on a rational synoptic theory, one on critical theory and one on world society theory. A range of data are used to establish findings and test hypotheses. The study then considers implications of the findings for theory and the policy process. The findings show that priorities promoting more equal opportunities, such as MDG2, were gradually preferred. Whereas priorities promoting more equal outcomes, such as elimination of trade barriers, were gradually excluded. The study finds no evidence that the General Assembly ever voted on the list of 8 MDGs. Rather, the MDGs were selected by elite policy actors, addressing multiple interests. The study considers the assertion that marginalization of the poor does not happen because people harbor ill will toward them, rather because “The poor have no friends among the global elite” (Pogge 2011, p. 62).

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