Disasters and climate change threaten the very existence of a special group of developing states- Small Island Developing States (SIDS). This research tackles the problem of limited uptake of integrated approaches to address risk in practice- in particular through disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). The benefits of these approaches are so significant that they can be considered to be investments in development. Focusing on Barbados, a SIDS, this research therefore seeks to identify the prospects for establishing an integrated disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation (DRR-CCA) development decision-making framework. It also seeks to understand the policy implications for other SIDS. In addressing the research problem, a risk governance framework and mixed methods approach is proposed for identifying the prospects for DRR-CCA. This allows for the challenges and the potential in actor networks, institutions, and the various dimensions of risk decision-making to be identified. The specific SIDS DRR-CCA risk governance framework utilised to generate the prospects is identified from literature. Data from documents, surveys and in-depth semi-structured interviews with 30 representatives from 20 organisations operating at different levels were gathered on DRR and CCA risk governance in Barbados from November, 2014 to May 2015. Analysis was carried out using document analysis, thematic analysis; social network analysis, and descriptive statistics. The research identifies that SIDS require an enhanced risk governance framework for DRR-CCA. This framework has a systemic approach at the core, as well as an explicit development approach supported by a joined-up governance approach. Furthermore, risk assessments should include assessments of adaptive capacity. Existing potential for DRR-CCA risk governance was identified in highly dense networks, established disaster management networks, and a unique polycentric network that engages intraregional partners in national governance. Notwithstanding, challenges related to cohesion within and across institutions and sectors; missing community and socio-economic participation; as well as issues connected to unadjusted mind-sets to address the DRR paradigm shift in practice, and limited development-socio-ecological systems approaches, meant that the prospects identified mainly addressed these shortcomings. A spatial methodology for DRR-CCA seemed feasible. This research contributes a framework for conceptualising DRR-CCA risk governance in SIDS which could be applicable to others. It offers a Caribbean SIDS perspective and practical suggestions for DRR-CCA that are relevant to SIDS practitioners and donors. Further research should focus on testing the prospects across the varying governance contexts of SIDS.

Les défis auxquels sont confrontés les différents secteurs de l’économie, répondent à l'évolution et à la spécialisation des consommateurs et des producteurs, dont les besoins sont de plus en plus complexes. À cet égard, au cours des 5 dernières années, les marchés de l'électricité ont subi un processus évolutif qui vise à répondre aux besoins de tous les intervenants dans des scénarios de développement durable.Aussi les agents impliqués dans les marchés de l'électricité, exposés à des risques opérationnels, juridiques, éthiques, financiers, entre autres, doivent‐ils se spécialiser pour s'approprier notamment de nouvelles technologies. Cette recherche porte principalement sur l'étude du risque financier tout à s'attachant à prendre en compte les nombreuses spécificités des marchés de l'électricité dans le but d'assurer le bon fonctionnement du marché et de ses participants.Dans les développements antérieurs, certains modèles se sont concentrés sur les phénomènes de pannes de courant électrique, d'instabilité du réseau, de variations de puissance, de réseaux intelligents, entre autres. D'autres études ont abordé la question de la prédiction de variables comme le prix et la stratégie d'entreprise, dans le but d'accroître les profits des participants. Ce projet de thèse propose un modèle financier complexe, qui se traduit par le calcul d'un équilibre de marché à partir des conditions initiales et des contraintes de risque. En utilisant la théorie des jeux, nous expliquons l'instabilité de l’équilibre. Nous montrons, en dépit de la complexité, qu'il est possible de trouver un scénario optimal en termes de rentabilité pour le système et les agents.Ce travail est structuré de la façon suivante. Dans le premier chapitre, une revue des études antérieures est présentée afin d’établir le contexte de la recherche. Le chapitre 2 décrit le marché de l'électricité colombienne avec ses particularités. Dans le chapitre 3, les indicateurs de risque (KRI) sont définis. Ils constitueront une partie fondamentale du modèle complet présenté dans le chapitre 4. Enfin, le chapitre 5, d'une part, présente les résultats obtenus et, d'autre part, discute de différentes voies d'approfondissement. / The challenges faced by different sectors of the economy, respond to the evolution and specialization of consumers and producers, where the needs are becoming more complex. In this sense, during the last 5 years the electricity markets have undergone an evolutionary pro- cess that aims to meet the needs of all stakeholders in the midst of sustainability scenarios.Thus, the agents involved in the electricity market, present a num- ber of exhibitions of operational nature, legal, ethical, financial, among others, which require a specialization allowing the entry of new tech- nologies. This research project focuses on the study of financial risk, which despite being so specific, consider many elements with the aim of ensuring the functioning of the market and its participants.In previous studies, some models have concentrated on the in- vestigation of blackouts phenomena, the stability of the network, the dynamic power system, and Smart grids, among others. Mean- while other investigations have addressed the problem of forecasting different variables like the spot price and corporate strategy, with the aim of increasing the profitability of the participants. Now, this project presents the proposal of a complex financial model, which results in calculating a market equilibrium considering initial condi- tions and risk constraints. Using game theory it demonstrates equi- librium instability and that through complexity it is possible to find an optimal scenario in terms of profitability for the system and the agents.In chapter 1 it carried out a review of previous studies in order to justify the investigation, then Chapter 2 includes a description of the Colombian electricity market, with different specifications. In chap- ter 3 the KRI are defined, and they will be integrated in Chapter 4 as a fundamental part of the comprehensive model. Finally, Chapter 5 includes the results of the study ending with some possible further studies and additional considerations.

A avaliação de riscos em projetos de produtos inovadores transformou-se em peça chave, na atualidade de competição crescente, para as empresas. Esse fato foi reconhecido na área de pesquisa nas últimas décadas e vários autores desenvolveram modelos para estimar riscos em projetos de produtos inovadores, tanto qualitativos como quantitativos. Porém, não foram encontrados, nas principais bases de dados, estudos que tratam o tema pela integração dos riscos de desenvolvimento e comercialização, mensurados por meio do Value at Risk (VaR). O objetivo geral do trabalho, portanto, é propor um modelo de análise de investimento que integre as etapas de desenvolvimento e comercialização para projetos inovadores, com utilização do VaR como medida de risco. Para a elaboração do modelo foi desenvolvido, primeiramente, um framework, qual relaciona os principais riscos em projetos de inovação e as variáveis que quantificam as tais. Este framework serve como base para a construção do modelo conceitual. Com a utilização das variáveis no modelo é possível estimar e quantificar os processos de desenvolvimento. A aplicação do VaR para a avaliação econômica em projetos de investimento representa uma novidade, mas se baseia na aplicação normal de estimação de riscos desenvolvida para o mercado financeiro. A vantagem do VaR é que resume os riscos considerados no cálculo do projeto em um único número, em unidades monetárias e de fácil compreensão, o que permite a comparação de projetos de investimento mutuamente exclusivos. O modelo integrado proposto possibilita uma avaliação econômica mais tangível que os métodos tradicionais de avaliação, aproximando o resultado à realidade e assim apresentando um avanço na estimação de risco no ambiente de desenvolvimento de produtos inovadores. Este fato foi comprovado na aplicação do método proposto em duas simulações de casos reais, quais resultados foram consistentes e compreensíveis. / Risk assessment in innovative product projects has become a key point for companies in today\'s growing competition. This fact was recognized by research in the area in recent decades and several authors have developed models to estimate risks in innovative product projects, as well as qualitative and quantitative. However, in the main databases could not be found studies dealing with the issue by integrating the risks of the development phase and the commercialization phase, measured by Value at Risk (VaR). The overall objective of this work is, therefore, proposing an investment analysis model that integrates the stages of development and commercialization for innovative projects, using VaR as a risk measure. Firstly, a framework, which relates the main risks in innovation projects and the variables that quantify such, was developed. This framework serves as a basis for the construction of the conceptual model. With the use of the defined variables and the conceptual model it is possible to estimate and quantify the processes of innovation projects. The application of VaR for economic evaluation of investment projects is new, but it is based on the risk estimates application used in the financial market. The advantage of VaR methods is that they summarize the risks considered in the project calculation in a single number expressed in monetary units, which is easy to interpret, allowing the comparison of mutually exclusive investment projects. The proposed integrated model enables a more tangible economic assessment than traditional methods of evaluation, bringing the result closer to reality and thus presenting an advance in risk estimation in innovative product development environment. This was proven in the application of the proposed method in two simulations of real cases, which results were consistent and understandable.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The objectives of the present research were to study the correlations between the presence of risk to child development and the interference of socioeconomic, demographic, psychosocial and obstetric variables, and to investigate the association between the presence of risk to child development and children initial speech production from 13 to 16 months of age. The quantitative, descriptive study of comparative nature about the behavioral manifestations of the mother-infant interactive process consisted of the evaluation of an initial sample of 182 mother-child dyads who were followed for 18 months in a cohort study. The final sample for the study of socioeconomic, demographic, psychosocial, and obstetric variables consisted of 64 infants and for the initial speech production study, the sample consisted of 54 infants. The collecting procedures were based on an initial interview, during the first stage of collection (1-4 months), on the application of the Risk Indicators for Child Development Protocol (1-18 months) and on the collection of children speech production between 13 and 16 months of age, by spontaneous observation and maternal report. Statistical analysis was developed through the application of non-parametric tests. The results demonstrated that there is a significantly association between the presence of risk to infant development and socioeconomic, demographic, psychosocial and obstetric variables. It was also verified that the initial language acquisition correlates significantly with the presence of development risks, since infants at risk present initial speech output in numerical magnitude statistically lower compared to infants without risk. Therefore, the risk to child development is multifactorial, being necessary to observe the constitutional aspects of the infant and relational to the environment, especially in relation to who plays the maternal role, in order to analyze and decide on the clinical referral. Keywords: Infant care. Infant. Child development. Risk factors. Language. Socioeconomic factors / Esta pesquisa teve como objetivos analisar as associações entre a presença de risco ao desenvolvimento infantil e variáveis socioeconômicas, demográficas, psicossociais e obstétricas, e investigar a associação entre presença de risco ao desenvolvimento infantil e produção inicial de fala de crianças na faixa de 13 a 16 meses de idade. O estudo quantitativo, descritivo com caráter comparativo sobre as manifestações comportamentais do processo interativo mãe-bebê, constituiu-se da avaliação de uma amostra inicial de 182 díades mães-bebês que foram acompanhadas durante 18 meses em um estudo de coorte. A amostra final para o estudo de variáveis socioeconômicas, demográficas, psicossociais e obstétricas foi de 58 crianças e para o estudo de produção inicial de fala de 54 crianças. Os procedimentos de coleta constaram de uma entrevista inicial, na primeira etapa da coleta (1 a 4 meses), a aplicação do Protocolo de Índices de Risco ao Desenvolvimento Infantil (1 a 18 meses) e da coleta da produção de fala entre 13 e 16 meses, por meio da observação espontânea e relato materno. A análise estatística deu-se pela aplicação de testes não-paramétricos e pela estimação de modelos de regressão logística. Os resultados demonstraram que há uma associação significativa entre presença de risco ao desenvolvimento infantil e variáveis socioeconômicas, demográficas, psicossociais e obstétricas. Também se verificou que a aquisição da linguagem inicial apresenta associação de modo significativo com a presença de riscos ao desenvolvimento, visto que bebês com risco apresentam produção de fala inicial em magnitude numérica estatisticamente inferior em relação aos bebês sem risco. Portanto, o risco ao desenvolvimento infantil é multifatorial, sendo necessário observar os aspectos constitucionais do bebê e relacionais com o ambiente, sobretudo em relação a quem exerce a função materna, para analisar e decidir acerca do encaminhamento clínico.

The purpose of this diploma thesis is a proposal strategy of company development for a business company XY s.r.o. Analysis conducted was aimed at research of internal company resources and external environment. The results of the analysis show market position and identifies source of competitive advantage. Strategy implementation should support improvement of market position.

D’une part, le développement scientifique dans le domaine pharmaceutique fournit des bénéfices substantiels à la santé des personnes, améliorant par conséquent leur qualité de vie. Toutefois, créer et mettre en marché une nouvelle substance thérapeutique n’est pas une tâche facile. Les laboratoires investissent du temps et de l’argent en recherche et développement pour y parvenir. D’autre part, malgré les bienfaits de la science et les efforts des chercheurs, les médicaments sont des produits potentiellement dangereux. Ils présentent des risques inhérents à leur nature, capables de causer des préjudices graves et irréversibles. D’ailleurs, la nature dangereuse de ces produits a incité l’instauration de normes qui imposent des critères stricts aux fabricants de médicaments dans le but de protéger le public. En suivant cette tendance mondiale, les législateurs brésilien et canadien ont instauré des régimes statutaires qui édictent des règles rigoureuses de conception, de fabrication et de commercialisation des médicaments. Néanmoins, à cause de la nature pénale et administrative de ces normes, elles ne sont pas efficaces lorsqu’il s’agit de dédommager le consommateur ou le tiers qui est victime du fait du médicament. Dans une telle situation, il faut recourir au droit civil dans le cas du Brésil et du Québec, ou à la common law dans les autres provinces canadiennes. Dans une étude comparée sur le sujet, nous avons appris que les droits civils brésilien et québécois ainsi que la common law canadienne ont des ressemblances très importantes, cependant en ce qui concerne l’exclusion de la responsabilité fondée sur le risque de développement scientifique, différentes solutions s’appliquent. / On the one hand, the scientific development in the pharmaceutical sector provides substantial benefits to human health, thus improving his quality of life. However, developing a new therapeutic substance is a hard task. The laboratories have been investing time and money in research and development to get there. On the other hand, despite the benefits of science and the efforts of researchers, drugs are potentially dangerous. They pose risks inherent in their nature, can cause serious and irreversible damage. Moreover, the hazardous nature of these products has prompted the creation of standards that impose strict criteria for drug manufacturers in order to protect the public. By following this global trend, the Brazilian and Canadian legislators have introduced statutory regulations that lay down strict rules of design, manufacture and marketing of drugs. However, as a result of criminal and administrative standards, they are not effective when it comes to compensate the victim of the drug. In this situation, we must resort to civil law, in the case of Brazil and Quebec, or the common law in respect of other Canadian provinces. In a comparative study, we find out that civil law in Brazil and Quebec and Canadian common law have significant similarities, however, regarding the exclusion of liability based on the risk of scientific development, different solutions apply.

D’une part, le développement scientifique dans le domaine pharmaceutique fournit des bénéfices substantiels à la santé des personnes, améliorant par conséquent leur qualité de vie. Toutefois, créer et mettre en marché une nouvelle substance thérapeutique n’est pas une tâche facile. Les laboratoires investissent du temps et de l’argent en recherche et développement pour y parvenir. D’autre part, malgré les bienfaits de la science et les efforts des chercheurs, les médicaments sont des produits potentiellement dangereux. Ils présentent des risques inhérents à leur nature, capables de causer des préjudices graves et irréversibles. D’ailleurs, la nature dangereuse de ces produits a incité l’instauration de normes qui imposent des critères stricts aux fabricants de médicaments dans le but de protéger le public. En suivant cette tendance mondiale, les législateurs brésilien et canadien ont instauré des régimes statutaires qui édictent des règles rigoureuses de conception, de fabrication et de commercialisation des médicaments. Néanmoins, à cause de la nature pénale et administrative de ces normes, elles ne sont pas efficaces lorsqu’il s’agit de dédommager le consommateur ou le tiers qui est victime du fait du médicament. Dans une telle situation, il faut recourir au droit civil dans le cas du Brésil et du Québec, ou à la common law dans les autres provinces canadiennes. Dans une étude comparée sur le sujet, nous avons appris que les droits civils brésilien et québécois ainsi que la common law canadienne ont des ressemblances très importantes, cependant en ce qui concerne l’exclusion de la responsabilité fondée sur le risque de développement scientifique, différentes solutions s’appliquent. / On the one hand, the scientific development in the pharmaceutical sector provides substantial benefits to human health, thus improving his quality of life. However, developing a new therapeutic substance is a hard task. The laboratories have been investing time and money in research and development to get there. On the other hand, despite the benefits of science and the efforts of researchers, drugs are potentially dangerous. They pose risks inherent in their nature, can cause serious and irreversible damage. Moreover, the hazardous nature of these products has prompted the creation of standards that impose strict criteria for drug manufacturers in order to protect the public. By following this global trend, the Brazilian and Canadian legislators have introduced statutory regulations that lay down strict rules of design, manufacture and marketing of drugs. However, as a result of criminal and administrative standards, they are not effective when it comes to compensate the victim of the drug. In this situation, we must resort to civil law, in the case of Brazil and Quebec, or the common law in respect of other Canadian provinces. In a comparative study, we find out that civil law in Brazil and Quebec and Canadian common law have significant similarities, however, regarding the exclusion of liability based on the risk of scientific development, different solutions apply.

Breakthrough innovations are vital for the global economy and even our survival as a species. They appear as creative leaps and insights without obvious connection to existing knowledge and are extremely valuable to organisations, giving them significant competitive advantage. Historiometric and psychopathological evidence shows that breakthrough innovations are often associated with individuals and affective dysfunction; yet innovation today is widely held to be an organisational phenomenon operationalised though a model of creativity based on positive affective experiences and group activities which may be particularly unsuited to innovative thinkers. Research upon which the current paradigm for creativity and innovation are based is detached from real world outcomes and has been challenged as to its validity. Little data exists outside of experiments or indirect observation of naturally occurring affective experiences and the mood-creativity-innovation link has yet to be proven; we still know very little about how breakthrough innovations occur. This unique study addresses this significant gap in innovation research with a two-year longitudinal case study of a breakthrough innovation being developed for a multi-national Fast-Moving Consumer Goods company. It followed the journey of a lone innovator and attempts to answer the research question: “Can a fear of failure lead to breakthrough innovation?” The innovation space was investigated from three perspectives: technology, organisation and innovator, to build a picture of the highly immersive and emotionally charged experience of innovating. Many new insights were gained, and with extensive support from literature, new tools for the management of technology and the interface between innovators and organisations were developed, along with ground-breaking research into the mood-creativity innovation link. These are delivered through a series of four journal papers. The key finding from this research has been the discovery of the innovation-wave, a phenomenon which for the first time provides evidence for the mood-creativity-innovation link; intimately connecting real-world creative efficacy with emotion and specifically a ‘fear of failure’. From this finding a new theory and psycho-cognitive model for a distinct form of creativity called innovative thinking, driven by negative affect (mood) and specifically suited to achieving a breakthrough innovation through overcoming apparently insoluble problems, was posited and a hypothesis proposed and tested using a sophisticated innovation simulation developed especially for this purpose. Evidence from the case study and later experiment provide support for the research question and the lone innovator. This study makes a unique contribution to our understanding of creativity and innovation which could have a significant impact on how both are researched, taught and managed in the future. Being able to understand and possibly manipulate the innovation-wave, if proven correct, could be vitally important for maximising the potential for creating breakthrough innovations to the benefit of us all.

This paper concerns about key business process in the production companies, namely, the new product development. The object of this thesis has been to create a tool to estimate the risk of the new product development. To reach this goal, current tools used to deciding the risk must have been explored. As the best tool, appropriate for assessing the risk of new product development has proved the Bayesian Network. This paper explains the construction of the Bayesian network and shows the way how to generate the probabilities in the network to be accurate for the risk estimation. Based on this theoretical knowledge has been built an information system, which estimates the risk of the new products and administer the risks.

Un niveau élevé de protection de la santé humaine est assuré dans la définition et la mise en oeuvre de toutes les politiques et actions de l’Union européenne. L’une des politiques les plus importantes, conformément aux enjeux de santé et au développement économique, est celle des médicaments. Leur sécurité est garantie par un cadre juridique donné par une législation pharmaceutique d’envergure présidant à l’octroi de l’autorisation de mise sur le marché et au suivi post-autorisation. Ce cadre juridique est supporté par un dispositif institutionnel d’exception, caractérisé par une interaction étroite entre l’Agence européenne des médicaments, la Commission européenne et les autorités nationales compétentes. Il a récemment été réformé à travers la nouvelle législation de pharmacovigilance. Le concept de sécurité sanitaire est ainsi devenu le principe directeur de la gestion du risque pharmaceutique. Toutefois, lorsque le risque inhérent à tout produit pharmaceutique se manifeste, le dommage médicamenteux se produit ainsi que la demande de réparation. Face à la nécessité d’indemniser les victimes de tels accidents, les réponses nationales des systèmes juridiques français et italien, par les biais de la responsabilité civile de droit commun et de la responsabilité du fait des produits défectueux issue de la directive 85/374/CEE, se révèlent inefficaces, car peu respectueuses de la spécificité du médicament. Ce constat conduit à plaider en faveur d’une dissociation entre responsabilité et indemnisation, en garantissant cette dernière à travers la création d’un fonds d’indemnisation général pour les dommages médicamenteux à participation mixte public-privé. Cette solution garantit une socialisation des risques justifiée par le caractère social du risque thérapeutique. Cela constitue le contrepoids aux dangers inhérents aux innovations de la science, tout en faisant profiter les malades des bénéfices thérapeutiques de demain. En prônant une approche holistique de la politique du médicament, la proposition de ce fonds constitue un instrument d’une politique de santé publique qui ne voit dans l’indemnisation des risques médicamenteux qu’un complément et un prolongement de la garantie de sécurité à la base de la législation pharmaceutique européenne. / The definition and implementation of the European Union’s policies and activities guarantee a very high level of human health protection. One of its most important policies, in accordance with the relative health and economic development issues, is that on medicinal products. Drug safety is guaranteed by a legal framework, constructed on the pharmaceutical legislation laying down rules and procedures for obtaining marketing authorisation and for post authorisation monitoring. This legal framework is supported by a special institutional system,which in particular ensures close interaction between the European Medicines Agency, the European Commission and the national competent authorities. This legal framework has recently been revised as a result of the new pharmacovigilance legislation. As such, health safety has become a key directive in managing pharmaceutical risk. Yet, whenever a risk relating directly to a particular pharmaceutical product becomes apparent, medical damages and compensation claims arise. The response of the national French and Italian legal systems to the application for compensation of the victims of such accidents, by way of the ordinary rules of civil liability and the liability for defective products as defined in Council Directive85/374/EEC, has proven ineffective: they fail to take into account the specific nature ofpharmaceutical products. Based on this observation, there is a sound case for separating liability from compensation: the latter can be guaranteed by setting up a general compensationfund for medical damages, with both public and private sector participation. This solutionwould guarantee a socialisation of risks that is justified by the social nature of therapeutic risk. It would provide a counterbalance to the dangers inherent in scientific innovation, whilst simultaneously allowing patients to benefit from future therapeutic developments. By advocating a holistic approach to drug policy, this proposed compensation fund would act as apublic health policy instrument, in the context of which compensation for medical risks would only be considered an addition to, and extension of, the security guarantee that constitutes the cornerstone of the European pharmaceutical legislation.