A informação sobre a dinâmica espaço-temporal de doenças de plantas é de importância fundamental em estudos epidemiológicos, podendo ser utilizada para descrever e entender o desenvolvimento das doenças, desenvolver planos de amostragem, planejar experimentos controlados e caracterizar perdas na produção ocasionadas pela doença. O estudo de padrões espaciais de doenças de plantas, que são reflexos do processo de dispersão dos patógenos, é importante em estudos epidemiológicos, como o de doenças dos citros, para se definirem estratégias mais adequadas para o controle das doenças, diminuindo os prejuízos causados. A Citricultura é uma das principais atividades agrícolas do Brasil e representa a principal atividade econômica de mais de 400 municípios do Triângulo Mineiro e do Estado de São Paulo, onde se encontra a maior área de citros do país e a maior região produtora de laranjas do mundo. Na avaliação do padrão espacial, diferentes métodos têm sido utilizados, dentre os quais incluem-se o ajuste de distribuições, como, por exemplo, a distribuição beta-binomial, o estudo da relação variância-média, o cálculo de correlação ao intraclasse, a utilização de técnicas de autocorrelação espacial, métodos de classes de distâncias e o ajuste de modelos estocásticos espaço-temporais. Diante da importância de se estudarem padrões espaciais da incidência de doenças em plantas e da necessidade de se conhecer melhor a epidemiologia da morte súbita dos citros e do cancro cítrico, uma técnica baseada em verossimilhança para o ajuste de modelos estocásticos espaço-temporais foi utilizada na caracterização de padrões espaciais. Modificações na metodologia original, buscando uma diminuição do tempo gasto nas análises, foram propostas nesse estudo. Os resultados mostram que as modificações propostas resultaram em uma diminuição significativa no tempo de análise, sem perda de acurácia na estimação dos parâmetros dos modelos considerados. / The information about the spatial-temporal dynamics is of fundamental importance in epidemiological studies for describing and understanding the development of diseases, for developing efficient sampling plans, for planning controlled experiments, for evaluating the effect of different treatments, and for determining crop losses. The Citriculture is the major economic activity of more than 400 municipalities in Minas Gerais and São Paulo States. This is the largest citrus area in Brazil, and the largest sweet orange production area in the world. Therefore, it is very important to study and to characterize spatial patterns of plant diseases, such as citrus canker and citrus sudden death. In the spatial dynamics study, many different methods have been used to characterize the spatial aggregation. These include the fitting of distributions, such as the beta-binomial distribution, the study of variance-mean relationships, the calculation of intraclass correlation, the use of spatial autocorrelation techniques, distance class methods and, the fitting of continuous time spatiotemporal stochastic models. In this work, an improved technique for fitting models to the spatial incidence data by using MCMC methods is proposed. This improved technique, which is used to investigate the spatial patterns of plant disease incidence, is considerably faster than Gibson’s methodology, in terms of computational time, without any loss of accuracy.

Mycobacterium bovis is the causative agent of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) which has a diverse host range. The maintenance host of BTB in South Africa is the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). It is believed that lions get infected by feeding on infected buffalo or through wounds. The spread of the disease amongst lions has raised concern regarding the future of the animals and the impact on tourism in the country. Diagnoses of tuberculosis in free ranging wildlife is often dependent on post-mortem samples due to logistical challenges, the use of the lion specific interferon gamma release assay as an antemortem test offers a simpler methodology to testing live animals. The aim was to optimise an already developed assay by Maas et al.,2012 and to harmonise it with the Rhinoceros specific interferon gamma assay developed by Morar-Leather et al 2007. Optimisation of the interferon gamma specific ELISA included: determination of optimal concentrations for the capture and detection monoclonal antibodies; optimal concentrations for the conjugate and evaluation of alternative blocking agents. Different mitogens and incubation times were evaluated for the stimulation of whole blood as positive control in the assay. The optimum concentration for coating the plates with the capture monoclonal antibody was 2 g/ml. An optimum dilution of 1:5000 was selected for both the biotinylated detection monoclonal antibody and the streptavidin horseradish peroxidase conjugate. The assay was optimised using recombinant lion interferon gamma and the lower detection limit was calculated to be 109 pg/ml. Phosphate buffered saline with 1% bovine serum albumin was found to be Chapter 1 © University of South Africa iii a suitable blocking agent. Native interferon gamma was detected in whole blood samples from 5 lions and a 24 hour incubation time with PMA and ionomycin was selected as the optimal mitogen positive control. This assay system demonstrated good potential as an ante mortem test for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in lions. In conclusion, the assay can detect IFN- from supernatants harvested from whole blood cultures stimulated with specific antigens and mitogens / Agriculture and  Animal Health / M. Sc. (Agriculture)

The purpose of this study was to determine the progress of the immunization program for Contagious Diseases in the City Schools of Dallas, Texas, over a period of ten years, dating from September 1928, to September 1938. An endeavor was made to determine how the Health Works Program of the Dallas Public Schools developed, and the protection it gave the public children.

Due to their contagiousness, communicable disease require healthcare staff to not only see to the needs of their patient, but also to the protection of themselves and other people from getting infected. Ethical issues and dilemmas tied to the patient’s anatomy and confidentiality arise as interventions to prevent further spread of the disease necessarily involve informing others about the risk of infection. Knowledge of and about communicable disease is necessary for acts of caution to be taken by both the person carrying it and those who are at risk of becoming infected. The Swedish communicable disease control system is regulated mainly with the Communicable Diseases Act (smittskyddslag, SFS 2004:168) and confidentiality within healthcare is regulated by the Public Access to Information and Secrecy Act (offentlighets- och sekretesslag, SFS 2009:400). In this thesis we identify dilemmas and concessions in the taking of measures to prevent the spread of communicable diseases, focusing especially on these two laws. This is done from the perspective of social work in healthcare settings with some focus on healthcare counsellors. For this purpose we have used content analysis with a deductive approach, produced a coding schedule, and analyzed relevant data in official documents. To discuss identified dilemmas and concessions further, we have used a theory of care ethics and utilitarianism. In our results we describe dilemmas consisting of situations where it is impossible to both maintain secrecy regarding the patient’s status as ill while informing others about their risk of infection, situations where differing interests arise, and situations where several principles which need to be followed differ from one another. These dilemmas are ethical in nature rather than legal, although professionals must make decisions regarding what information to share and what to keep secret. This makes for situations where practical answers to ethical dilemmas are necessary, and the contagious nature of the patient’s disease makes work more difficult. / I arbetet med smittsamma sjukdomar ska hälso- och sjukvårdspersonal inte enbart värna om patienten, utan även andra människor. Sjukdomarnas smittsamhet medför försvårande omständigheter och medför andra etiska frågor än andra sjukdomar. Inte minst uppstår etiska problem kopplade till patientens autonomi och sekretesskydd vid smittsamma sjukdomar på grund av risken för att också andra kan bli sjuka. Vetskap om sjukdomen är ett måste för att rimliga försiktighetsåtgärder ska kunna vidtas av både den smittade och osmittade personer. Smittskyddet i Sverige regleras främst genom smittskyddslagen (SFS 2004:168) och hälso- och sjukvårdens sekretess genom offentlighets- och sekretesslagen (SFS 2009:400). Vi identifierar dilemman och avvägningar i det praktiska arbetet med att besluta om och vidta smittskyddsåtgärder utifrån lagstiftningen, och diskuterar sedan dessa. Vårdetik lyfts och appliceras. Uppsatsens utgångspunkt är socialt arbete i hälso- och sjukvård, och delvis rollen som hälso- och sjukvårdskurator. Metoden består av innehållsanalytisk bearbetning, kodning, av lagtext och förarbeten med en deduktiv ansats. I resultatet redovisar vi hur balans mellan olika rättigheter och skyldigheter genomsyrar smittskyddslagen (2004), vars primära syfte är att tillgodose befolkningens behov av skydd mot smittsamma sjukdomar. För att uppnå detta görs flera avsteg från sekretessen som annars gäller i hälso- och sjukvård. Vi identifierar och beskriver de dilemman och avvägningar som uppstår som situationer där det är omöjligt att både hemlighålla patientens sjukdomsstatus och skydda andra från smitta, då det råder skilda intressen, och situationer då skilda principer behöver följas. Dessa dilemman är främst etiska och praktiska i och med att den som fattar beslut om och vidtar smittskyddsåtgärder måste besluta vilka uppgifter som ska röjas och på vilket sätt. Etiska riktlinjer är inte irrelevanta och kan utgöra både vägledning genom olika dilemman och avvägningar, men också försvåra det praktiska arbetet i och med de verkliga konsekvenser smittskyddsåtgärder har för människorna de berör. Dessutom väger alltid lagen tyngre när det gäller att instruera professionella i hur de ska agera. Skyddet mot spridning av vissa sjukdomar prioriteras över skyddet av patientens sekretess.

The global transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has resulted in over 677 million infections and 6.88 million tragic deaths worldwide as of March 10th, 2023. During the pandemic, the ability to effectively combat SARS-CoV-2 had been hindered by the lack of rapid, reliable, and cost-effective testing platforms for readily screening patients, discerning incubation stages, and accounting for variants. The limited knowledge of the viral pathogenesis further hindered rapid diagnosis and long-term clinical management of this complex disease. While effective in the short term, measures such as social distancing and lockdowns have resulted in devastating economic loss, in addition to material and psychological hardships. Therefore, successfully reopening society during a pandemic depends on frequent, reliable testing, which can result in the timely isolation of highly infectious cases before they spread or become contagious. Viral loads, and consequently an individual's infectiousness, change throughout the progression of the illness. These dynamics necessitate frequent testing to identify when an infected individual can safely interact with non-infected individuals. Thus, scalable, accurate, and rapid serial testing is a cornerstone of an effective pandemic response, a prerequisite for safely reopening society, and invaluable for early containment of epidemics. Given the significant challenges posed by the pandemic, the power of artificial intelligence (AI) can be harnessed to create new diagnostic methods and be used in conjunction with serial tests. With increasing utilization of at-home lateral flow immunoassay (LFIA) tests, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) have consistently raised concerns about a potential underreporting of actual SARS-CoV-2-positive cases. When AI is paired with serial tests, it could instantly notify, automatically quantify, aid in real-time contact tracing, and assist in isolating infected individuals. Moreover, the computer vision-assisted methodology can help objectively diagnose conditions, especially in cases where subjective LFIA tests are employed. Recent advances in the interdisciplinary scientific fields of machine learning and biomedical engineering support a unique opportunity to design AI-based strategies for pandemic preparation and response. Deep learning algorithms are transforming the interpretation and analysis of image data when used in conjunction with biomedical imaging modalities such as MRI, Xray, CT scans, confocal microscopes, etc. These advances have enabled researchers to carry out real-time viral infection diagnostics that were previously thought to be impossible. The objective of this thesis is to use SARS-CoV-2 as a model virus and investigate the potential of applying multi-class instance segmentation deep learning and other machine learning strategies to build pandemic preparedness for rapid, in-depth, and longitudinal diagnostic platforms. This thesis encompasses three research tasks: 1) computer vision-assisted rapid serial testing, 2) infected cell phenotyping, and 3) diagnosing the long-term consequences of infection (i.e., long-term COVID). The objective of Task 1 is to leverage the power of AI, in conjunction with smartphones, to rapidly and simultaneously diagnose COVID-19 infections for millions of people across the globe. AI not only makes it possible for rapid and simultaneous screenings of millions but can also aid in the identification and contact tracing of individuals who may be carriers of the virus. The technology could be used, for example, in university settings to manage the entry of students into university buildings, ensuring that only students who test negative for the virus are allowed within campus premises, while students who test positive are placed in quarantine until they recover. The technology could also be used in settings where strict adherence to COVID-19 prevention protocols is compromised, for example, in an Emergency Room. This technology could also help with CDC’s concern on growing incidences of underreporting positive COVID-19 cases with growing utilization of at-home LFIA tests. AI can address issues that arise from relying solely on the visual interpretation of LFIA tests to make accurate diagnoses. One problem is that LFIA test results may be subjective or ambiguous, especially when the test line of the LFIA displays faint color, indicating a low analyte abundance. Therefore, reaching a decisive conclusion regarding the patient's diagnosis becomes challenging. Additionally, the inclusion of a secondary source for verifying the test results could potentially increase the test's cost, as it may require the purchase of complementary electronic gadgets. To address these issues, our innovation would be accurately calibrated with appropriate sensitivity markers, ensuring increased accuracy of the diagnostic test and rapid acquisition of test results from the simultaneous classification of millions of LFIA tests as either positive or negative. Furthermore, the designed network architecture can be utilized to detect other LFIA-based tests, such as early pregnancy detection, HIV LFIA detection, and LFIA-based detection of other viruses. Such minute advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence can be leveraged on many different scales and at various levels to revolutionize the health sector. The motivating purpose of Task 2 is to design a highly accurate instance segmentation network architecture not only for the analysis of SARS-CoV-2 infected cells but also one that yields the highest possible segmentation accuracy for all applications in biomedical sciences. For example, the designed network architecture can be utilized to analyze macrophages, stem cells, and other types of cells. Task 3 focuses on conducting studies that were previously considered computationally impossible. The invention will assist medical researchers and dentists in automatically calculating alveolar crest height (ACH) in teeth using over 500 dental Xrays. This will help determine if patients diagnosed with COVID-19 by a positive PCR test exhibited more alveolar bone loss and had greater bone loss in the two years preceding their COVID-positive test when compared to a control group without a positive COVID-19 test. The contraction of periodontal disease results in higher levels of transmembrane serine protease 2 (TMPRSS2) within the buccal cavity, which is instrumental in enabling the entry of SARS-CoV-2. Gum inflammation, a symptom of periodontal disease, can lead to alterations in the ACH of teeth within the oral mucosa. Through this innovation, we can calculate ACHs of various teeth and, therefore, determine the correlation between ACH and the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 infection. Without the invention, extensive manpower and time would be required to make such calculations and gather data for further research into the effects of SARS-CoV-2 infection, as well as other related biological phenomena within the human body. Furthermore, the novel network framework can be modified and used to calculate dental caries and other periodontal diseases of interest.

【研究緣起與問題】2003年春季，SARS在全球造成一陣轟動，同時也重創全球的經濟，如今SARS會不會再來？政府如何因應？政府如何監測疫情？如何防治疫情？如果SARS等新興及再浮現感染症 （Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases）出現時，負責全國傳染病防治任務的行政院衛生署疾病管制局是如何作好全國傳染病防治工作呢？中央及地方主管機關之溝通，如何共同消除指責與誤會，發揮團隊精神，如何共同作好全國傳染病防疫任務，爭取公眾對政府之瞭解並加以支持，同時防止任何可能之攻擊，才是全民之福祉。故以「全國傳染病通報系統」的績效，其所仰賴之溝通通路之問題研究，是本研究的動機。了解「傳染病通報管理系統(WEB版)」最大的問題及新興傳染病（如SARS）防治通報的問題及「傳染病通報管理系統」最需要改進之的地方，是本研究的目的。 【研究方法與資料】本研究採取量化與質化並重的方法，以網路問卷方式的進行問卷調查，問卷對象為全國使用傳染病通報管理系統之相關人員，問卷問題內容的設計主要的型式含有開放式問卷（Open –Ended Question）、封閉式問卷（Close-Ended Question）及混合型問卷（Mixed Question）三種。同時以九十二年針對新興傳染病SARS期間為例，深度訪談當時任職於中央與地方負責傳染病防治權責具代表性者五位主管進行訪談，瞭解受訪者對新興傳染病如SARS防治的問題及「傳染病通報管理系統」最需要改進之的地方，以彌補問卷調查法無法深入瞭解到問題之缺點。 【研究結論與建議】 一、根據筆者初步研究經問卷的實證調查之後，從問卷分析資料顯示，使用者使用電腦的時間愈久，對以新版為溝通工具滿意度愈低；而愈瞭解通報系統的使用者，其以新版為溝通工具滿意度愈高，愈滿意新版改進之電腦網路溝通效果。顯示新版的通報系統在設計的操作介面與程序上，沒有人性化，作業內容繁多、需輸入的項目、資料太繁瑣、版面太繁瑣等，反而徒增使用者的困擾；而愈瞭解通報系統的使用者，其對新版的滿意度越高，表示對於使用者在操作上的教育訓練仍須加強，才能發揮新版通報系統的成效。 二、從敘述統計分析中發現： 受訪者對「訊息異動通知作業流程滿意」的使用滿意度的平均數最高，平均數為2.8095表示：較為滿意。「通報作業流程滿意嗎」的使用滿意度的平均數最低，平均數為2.3934，受訪者表示：較為滿意。以新版為溝通工具整體溝通滿意情形，平均數為2.558滿意。 三、開放式問卷分析資料顯示，花太多時間、速度太慢、網路的頻寬過窄又不穩定或無法登錄、作業內容繁多、作業流程問題、資訊管理問題及功能增添與建議等部分。 四、根據筆者初步研究深度訪談之後，彙整中央主管機關及地方主管機關的訪談核心二部分的問題與建議。 五、研究建議： 綜合問卷調查及深度訪談結果，提出政策層面、組織溝通層面、管理層面、實務操作層面等之建議。 【關鍵字】傳染病通報系統、嚴重急性呼吸道症候群(severe acute respiratory syndrome, SARS)、組織溝通、溝通通路、行政院衛生署疾病管制局 / 【Background and Issues】 In the spring of 2003, SARS outbreaks devastated the whole world; they also heavily damaged the world economy. Will SARS come back? How can governments manage it? How can government monitor the epidemics? How can we control the infection? When emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases such as SARS appear, how can the Center for Disease Control of the Department of Health, an organization in charge of national disease control, plan and execute measures for the control of communicable diseases? Effective communication between the central and the local competent authorities to remove together blames and misunderstanding, to develop team spirit, to attain jointly the goal of disease control, to solicit understanding and support of the public to the government, and to prevent any likely attack are some of the considerations in improving the welfare of the public. The reason of the present study was to understand, through the achievements thus far of the National Communicable Disease Reporting System, issues involved in the communication channels. The purposes of the study were to understand the major problems of the Communicable Disease Reporting and Management System (the Web version), issues involved in the reporting of emerging infectious diseases, and areas of the Communicable Disease Reporting and Management System where improvement was most urgently needed. 【Method and Materials】 Both the quantitative and qualitative methods were used. Questionnaire interview was conducted through the web to persons using the Communicable Disease Reporting and Management System throughout the country. The questionnaire contained open-end questions, closed-end questions and questions of mixed types. At the same time, to understand in depth areas not properly covered by the questionnaire interview, five key persons responsible for disease control at the time of the SARS outbreaks in 2003 at the central and the local levels were interviewed to understand their attitudes toward the control of emerging infectious diseases such as SARS, and the improvement most urgently needed for the Communicable Disease Reporting and Management System. 【Results and Recommendations】 1. Preliminary findings from analysis of the questionnaire interview showed that users became less satisfied with the new version communication means the longer they were in use of computers. Users who knew more about the use of the reporting system were more satisfied with the new communication means, were at the same time, more satisfied with the communication effects of the improved version. These facts suggested that the new reporting system was less user-friendly in the designing of interface and procedures. The system required more work, more detailed inputs, and thus added additional burdens on the part of the users. The more the users understood the reporting system, their satisfaction was higher, indicating that, for the new version reporting system to function in full, training of the users in the use of the system should be strengthened. 2. From the descriptive analysis, it was found that the average score of user satisfaction on the “information change reporting procedures” was as high as 2.8095, suggesting that the users were fairly satisfied. The satisfaction score on “reporting procedures” was the lowest at 2.3934. The overall satisfaction score on the use of the new version as a communication means was 2.558. 3. Findings from the open-end questions gave the following recommendations: taking too much time, too slow, frequency of the web too narrow, unstable, and unable to load, too detailed, issues related to operational procedures, issues related to information management and additional functions, etc. 4. By analysis of the in-depth interview, some issues were raised and recommendations made to the central and the local competent authorities. 5. Through questionnaire survey and in-depth interview, some recommendations concerning policies, organizational communication, management and practical operation were made. 【Key Words】 Communicable Disease Reporting System, SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), organizational communication, communication channels, Center for Disease Control, the Department of Health

L’Organisation mondiale de la santé animale (OIE) est l’institution internationale responsable de la mise en place des mesures sanitaires associées aux échanges commerciaux d’animaux vivants. Le zonage est une méthode de contrôle recommandée par l’OIE pour certaines maladies infectieuses, dont l’influenza aviaire. Les éclosions d’influenza aviaire été extrêmement coûteuses pour l’industrie avicole partout dans le monde. Afin d’évaluer la possibilité d’user de cette approche en Ontario, les données sur les sites de production avicole ont été fournies par les fédérations d’éleveurs de volailles ce cette province. L’information portant sur les industries associées à la production avicole, soit les meuneries, les abattoirs, les couvoirs, et les usines de classification d’œufs, a été obtenue par l’entremise de plusieurs sources, dont des représentants de l’industrie avicole. Des diagrammes de flux a été crée afin de comprendre les interactions entre les sites de production et les industries associées à ceux-ci. Ces industries constituaient les éléments de bas nécessaires au zonage. Cette analyse a permis de créer une base de données portant sur intrants et extrants de production pour chaque site d’élevage avicole, ainsi que pour les sites de production des industries associées à l’aviculture. À l’aide du logiciel ArcGIS, cette information a été fusionnée à des données géospatiales de Statistique Canada de l’Ontario et du Québec. La base de données résultante a permis de réaliser les essais de zonage. Soixante-douze essais ont été réalisés. Quatre ont été retenus car celles minimisaient de façon similaire les pertes de production de l’industrie. Ces essais montrent que la méthode utilisée pour l’étude du zonage peut démontrer les déficits et les surplus de production de l’industrie avicole commerciale en Ontario. Ceux-ci pourront servir de point de départ lors des discussions des intervenants de l’industrie avicole, étant donné que la coopération et la communication sont essentielles au succès du zonage. / The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) is the international reference body for international trade standards for live animals. Zoning is a method of controlling certain infectious diseases, including avian influenza, recommended by the OIE for use when appropriate. Avian influenza outbreaks have been extremely costly to the poultry industry throughout the world. In order to assess whether this approach was possible in Ontario, data on poultry industry production sites were provided by the Ontario poultry marketing boards. Zone borders were formed based on two criteria. The first criterion was the supply of essential products and services such that within-zone commercial poultry production could be maintained. The second was the contiguity of the zone’s territory. Four associated industries were identified which provide essential products and services: feed mills, abattoirs, hatcheries, and egg grading stations. A product flow analysis was completed to understand the direction of product movements between the poultry production sites and the sites of the four associated industries. This analysis was used to create a database of input requirements and output production capacity from each type of poultry production site. Using ArcGIS, this information was merged with geospatial data from Statistics Canada on Ontario and Quebec to create the database used for zoning scenarios. Seventy-two scenarios were completed; of these, four were chosen which minimized production loss over the whole industry. These scenarios demonstrate that the method used for the zoning study can identify the production deficits and surpluses of the commercial poultry industry in Ontario. These scenarios can serve as a starting point for discussion among industry stakeholders, as cooperation and communication are essential to the success of zoning.

L’Organisation mondiale de la santé animale (OIE) est l’institution internationale responsable de la mise en place des mesures sanitaires associées aux échanges commerciaux d’animaux vivants. Le zonage est une méthode de contrôle recommandée par l’OIE pour certaines maladies infectieuses, dont l’influenza aviaire. Les éclosions d’influenza aviaire été extrêmement coûteuses pour l’industrie avicole partout dans le monde. Afin d’évaluer la possibilité d’user de cette approche en Ontario, les données sur les sites de production avicole ont été fournies par les fédérations d’éleveurs de volailles ce cette province. L’information portant sur les industries associées à la production avicole, soit les meuneries, les abattoirs, les couvoirs, et les usines de classification d’œufs, a été obtenue par l’entremise de plusieurs sources, dont des représentants de l’industrie avicole. Des diagrammes de flux a été crée afin de comprendre les interactions entre les sites de production et les industries associées à ceux-ci. Ces industries constituaient les éléments de bas nécessaires au zonage. Cette analyse a permis de créer une base de données portant sur intrants et extrants de production pour chaque site d’élevage avicole, ainsi que pour les sites de production des industries associées à l’aviculture. À l’aide du logiciel ArcGIS, cette information a été fusionnée à des données géospatiales de Statistique Canada de l’Ontario et du Québec. La base de données résultante a permis de réaliser les essais de zonage. Soixante-douze essais ont été réalisés. Quatre ont été retenus car celles minimisaient de façon similaire les pertes de production de l’industrie. Ces essais montrent que la méthode utilisée pour l’étude du zonage peut démontrer les déficits et les surplus de production de l’industrie avicole commerciale en Ontario. Ceux-ci pourront servir de point de départ lors des discussions des intervenants de l’industrie avicole, étant donné que la coopération et la communication sont essentielles au succès du zonage. / The World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE) is the international reference body for international trade standards for live animals. Zoning is a method of controlling certain infectious diseases, including avian influenza, recommended by the OIE for use when appropriate. Avian influenza outbreaks have been extremely costly to the poultry industry throughout the world. In order to assess whether this approach was possible in Ontario, data on poultry industry production sites were provided by the Ontario poultry marketing boards. Zone borders were formed based on two criteria. The first criterion was the supply of essential products and services such that within-zone commercial poultry production could be maintained. The second was the contiguity of the zone’s territory. Four associated industries were identified which provide essential products and services: feed mills, abattoirs, hatcheries, and egg grading stations. A product flow analysis was completed to understand the direction of product movements between the poultry production sites and the sites of the four associated industries. This analysis was used to create a database of input requirements and output production capacity from each type of poultry production site. Using ArcGIS, this information was merged with geospatial data from Statistics Canada on Ontario and Quebec to create the database used for zoning scenarios. Seventy-two scenarios were completed; of these, four were chosen which minimized production loss over the whole industry. These scenarios demonstrate that the method used for the zoning study can identify the production deficits and surpluses of the commercial poultry industry in Ontario. These scenarios can serve as a starting point for discussion among industry stakeholders, as cooperation and communication are essential to the success of zoning.

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