O arcabouço teórico neo-Kaleckiano parte da importância da demanda efetiva no processo de geração de renda para relacionar sua distribuição funcional - parcela da renda destinada a salários e lucros - à demanda agregada, e assim caracterizar o tipo de regime de demanda das economias, se wage-led (parcela de salários a afetando positivamente) ou profit-led (parcela de lucros a afetando positivamente). Contribuições posteriores propõem extensões ao modelo convencional que incluem o efeito de economia aberta, do crédito e da distribuição pessoal da renda sobre o tipo de regime característico. Partindo de tal arcabouço e da trajetória da economia brasileira nos anos 2000, esta dissertação busca avaliar empírica e teoricamente a relação entre distribuição funcional, distribuição intrasalarial e endividamento das famílias. No âmbito teórico, um modelo neo-Kaleckiano que avalia relação dinâmica de longo prazo entre dívida e distribuição é desenvolvido. No âmbito empírico, a relação entre distribuição funcional e demanda efetiva para economia brasileira no período 1995 a 2013 é analisada, mas considerando o impacto de variáveis ausentes do modelo seminal, que foram abordadas no modelo teórico apresentado, e que parecem relevantes para explicar o desempenho da economia brasileira no período - crédito, distribuição intrasalrial e preço das commodities. Resultados sugerem que o controle para estas variáveis de fato alteram o efeito da distribuição funcional sobre a demanda agregada e vice versa. / The neo-Kaleckian theoretical framework focuses on the importance of effective demand in the income generation process in order to relate its functional distribution - share of income that goes to wage and profits - to aggregate demand, and thus characterize the demand regime that leads it, either wage-led (wage share positively affecting demand or profit led (profit share positively affecting de-mand). Recent contributions include extensions to the standard model such as the open economy effect, household debt, and personal distribution of income to further characterize the regime type. Departing from that approach and from Brazilian Economy\'s performance on the 2000s, this thesis aims to empirically e theoreticallyanalyze the relationship between functional distribution, wage distribution and household debt. In the theoretical ground, a neo-Kaleckian model in which long term relationships between wage heterogeneity and household debt is developed and analyzed. In the empirical ground, the relationship between functional distribution of income and aggregate demand is analyzed for the Brazilian Economy in the period 1995-2013, but testing whether variables that are not present in the seminal model that seem to affect the Brazilian economy in the 2000s - household debt, personal distribution of income and commodity prices - alter the relationship between the two variables. Our results suggest that the control for those aspects indeed change the intercept and inclination of our demand and distributive curves.

Este trabalho analisa a discussão sobre a distribuição de renda no período da ditadura militar e os impactos dessa questão na crise do regime. Considerando que os primeiros estudos foram realizados a partir de 1972, com a divulgação dos dados do Censo e da publicação do livro de Carlos Langoni (1973) sobre o tema, a pesquisa discorre sobre o debate acadêmico e sua repercussão na imprensa, analisando os impactos da concentração de renda sobre a economia. Foram selecionadas matérias publicadas nos jornais O Estado de S. Paulo e O Globo, no período entre 1974 e 1979, anos que representam o auge e o declínio do governo militar, marcados pelo fim do milagre econômico e início da luta pela redemocratização, respectivamente. Por fim, o trabalho analisa o papel dos movimentos sociais e sindicais no enfraquecimento do regime, considerando a retomada das greves a partir de 1978, que resultaram na perda de apoio de várias classes representativas ao governo (trabalhadores, mídia, empresariado, entre outros) e, posteriormente, na retomada da democracia no país, em 1985. / This paper analyzes the discussion on the distribution of income in the period of the military dictatorship and the impacts of this issue on the crisis of the regime. Considering that the first studies were carried out after 1972, with the dissemination of the Census data and the publication of Carlos Langoni\'s book (1973) on the subject, the research discusses the academic debate and its repercussions in press, analysing the impacts of the concentration of income on the economy. There were selected articles published by O Estado de S. Paulo and O Globo newspapers during the period between 1974 and 1979, which represent the peak and decline of the military government, marked by the end of the \"economic miracle\" and beginning of struggle for redemocratization, respectively. Finally, the paper analyzes the role of social and union movements for the weakening of the regime, considering the resumption of strikes from 1978, which resulted the loss of the support of several representative classes to government (workers, media, businessmen and the like) and, after, the resumptiom of democracy in the country, in 1985.

Submitted by Tatiana Lima (tatianasl@ufba.br) on 2016-04-26T18:17:29Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Reis, Bruno Soares.pdf: 1619694 bytes, checksum: 1c49e9b73086fc952f2d6dd00a84cad0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Tatiana Lima (tatianasl@ufba.br) on 2016-04-26T18:28:14Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Reis, Bruno Soares.pdf: 1619694 bytes, checksum: 1c49e9b73086fc952f2d6dd00a84cad0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T18:28:14Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Reis, Bruno Soares.pdf: 1619694 bytes, checksum: 1c49e9b73086fc952f2d6dd00a84cad0 (MD5) / Este estudo tem por objetivo desenvolver uma tecnologia de gestão social para ser transformada numa proposta de governo a ser implantada pela Prefeitura Municipal de Salvador, estabelecendo um projeto denominado Travessia Salvador para complementar o Programa Bolsa Família (PBF), através da transferência de renda, da ampliação de políticas públicas e de ações de inclusão produtiva. A transferência de renda se dará para as famílias inscritas no CadÚnico que estejam em situação de extrema pobreza, isto é, com renda mensal per capta de até R$ 154 que ainda não foram contempladas pelo PBF. O prazo máximo de permanência do beneficiário é de 05 anos, recebendo os mesmos valores a partir dos critérios para definição adotados pelo PBF. As políticas públicas de saúde, educação, infraestrutura e outras serão definidas com base nos dados existentes no CadÚnico. A inclusão produtiva ocorrerá com a inserção no mercado de trabalho, tanto formal quanto informal, dos beneficiários, mediante a oferta de curso de qualificação profissional. Neste sentido, a Prefeitura, ao tempo em que apoia financeiramente o cidadão mais carente, e ainda desassistido pelo PBF, atua socialmente como intermediadora da mão de obra, direcionando-a para postos de trabalho. Trata-se então de articular e estimular empresas para contratar pessoas assistidas pelo PBF, a fim de reduzir seu número, possibilitando-lhes cada vez mais autonomia. Deste modo, visa-se a estabelecer condições para que o beneficiário possa sair do programa, mas de modo condigno, através do trabalho e da melhoria do seu bem-estar social proporcionado por políticas públicas. This study aims to develop a social management technology to be transformed into a proposal for government to be implemented by the Municipality of Salvador, establishing a project called Crossing Salvador to complement the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF), through income transfer, expansion of public policies and productive inclusion initiatives. The transfer of income will be given to families enrolled in CadÚnico who are in extreme poverty, that is, with monthly per capita income of up to R $ 154 that were not yet covered by PBF. The maximum period of stay is the beneficiary of 05 years, receiving the same values from the criteria for the definition adopted by the PBF. Public health policy, education, infrastructure and others will be defined based on existing data in CadÚnico. The productive inclusion will occur with integration into the labor market, both formal and informal, of beneficiaries, by offering course of professional qualification. In this sense, the municipal government, the time that financially supports the poorest citizens, and even unattended by PBF, socially acts as the intermediary labor, directing it to jobs. It is then to articulate and encourage companies to hire people assisted by PBF in order to reduce their number, allowing them increased autonomy. Thus, it aims to establish conditions so that the recipient can exit the program, but decent way, through work and improving their welfare provided by public policies.

O arcabouço teórico neo-Kaleckiano parte da importância da demanda efetiva no processo de geração de renda para relacionar sua distribuição funcional - parcela da renda destinada a salários e lucros - à demanda agregada, e assim caracterizar o tipo de regime de demanda das economias, se wage-led (parcela de salários a afetando positivamente) ou profit-led (parcela de lucros a afetando positivamente). Contribuições posteriores propõem extensões ao modelo convencional que incluem o efeito de economia aberta, do crédito e da distribuição pessoal da renda sobre o tipo de regime característico. Partindo de tal arcabouço e da trajetória da economia brasileira nos anos 2000, esta dissertação busca avaliar empírica e teoricamente a relação entre distribuição funcional, distribuição intrasalarial e endividamento das famílias. No âmbito teórico, um modelo neo-Kaleckiano que avalia relação dinâmica de longo prazo entre dívida e distribuição é desenvolvido. No âmbito empírico, a relação entre distribuição funcional e demanda efetiva para economia brasileira no período 1995 a 2013 é analisada, mas considerando o impacto de variáveis ausentes do modelo seminal, que foram abordadas no modelo teórico apresentado, e que parecem relevantes para explicar o desempenho da economia brasileira no período - crédito, distribuição intrasalrial e preço das commodities. Resultados sugerem que o controle para estas variáveis de fato alteram o efeito da distribuição funcional sobre a demanda agregada e vice versa. / The neo-Kaleckian theoretical framework focuses on the importance of effective demand in the income generation process in order to relate its functional distribution - share of income that goes to wage and profits - to aggregate demand, and thus characterize the demand regime that leads it, either wage-led (wage share positively affecting demand or profit led (profit share positively affecting de-mand). Recent contributions include extensions to the standard model such as the open economy effect, household debt, and personal distribution of income to further characterize the regime type. Departing from that approach and from Brazilian Economy\'s performance on the 2000s, this thesis aims to empirically e theoreticallyanalyze the relationship between functional distribution, wage distribution and household debt. In the theoretical ground, a neo-Kaleckian model in which long term relationships between wage heterogeneity and household debt is developed and analyzed. In the empirical ground, the relationship between functional distribution of income and aggregate demand is analyzed for the Brazilian Economy in the period 1995-2013, but testing whether variables that are not present in the seminal model that seem to affect the Brazilian economy in the 2000s - household debt, personal distribution of income and commodity prices - alter the relationship between the two variables. Our results suggest that the control for those aspects indeed change the intercept and inclination of our demand and distributive curves.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-04-26T20:48:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Cleuseni Hermelina de Carvalho.pdf: 1364887 bytes, checksum: 3b44bf46cef84a2cfa9ccc7046418cc7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-10-24 / The programs of conditional cash transfer are increasingly playing an important role in combating poverty in many countries of Latin America, especially in Brazil. The objective of this work is to analyze the contribution of Bolsa Família in household income inequality in Brazil between 2006 and 2011. To achieve the purpose, we analyze the relative participation of eight sources of income: labor, pensions, Bolsa Família (proxy variable), pensions, allowances, grants, rents and interest in the five geographical regions, North, Northeast, Midwest, Southeast, and South and metropolitan regions. That said, this study was organized in three chapters. The first chapter presents a reinterpretation of the causes of income inequality backed in Brazilian literature. The second analyzes the income transfer programs in four Latin American countries: Mexico, Chile, Argentina and Peru. The third presents a mathematical technique used to decompose the Gini, we analyze the empirical results for Brazil, macro-regions and metropolitan areas. Finally, it is concluded that, among the presented results, the importance of the Bolsa Família and especially labor income to reduce the degree of inequality / Os programas de transferência condicionada de renda vêm cada vez mais desempenhando um papel importante no combate à pobreza em vários países da América Latina, principalmente no Brasil. Assim, o objetivo desse trabalho é analisar a contribuição do Programa Bolsa Família na desigualdade da renda domiciliar per capita no Brasil, entre 2006 e 2011. Para atingir o propósito, analisa-se a participação relativa de oito fontes de renda: trabalho, aposentadorias, Programa Bolsa Família (variável proxy), pensões, abonos, doações, aluguéis e juros, nas cinco macrorregiões e regiões metropolitanas brasileiras. Posto isto, o presente estudo foi organizado em três capítulos. O primeiro capítulo apresenta uma releitura das causas da desigualdade de renda lastreada na literatura especializada brasileira. No segundo analisam-se os programas de transferência de renda em quatro países latino-americanos: México, Chile, Argentina e Peru. O terceiro apresenta a técnica matemática utilizada para decompor o Gini, analisam-se os resultados empíricos para Brasil, macrorregiões e regiões metropolitanas. Dentre os resultados, destacam-se a capacidade do programa Bolsa Família em contribuir para a queda da desigualdade da renda domiciliar nacional, indicando uma possível focalização em seu desenho como política

一、金融發展對經濟成長的影響：動態門檻效果的分析 本研究旨在探討於全球的架構下，各國金融發展對於經濟成長之關係為何？並且進一步探討銀行發展及股市發展是否對經濟成長有不對稱效果。對於過去相關文獻無法獲得金融發展與經濟成長間一致的關係，我們懷疑應與金融發展與經濟成長之間為非線性關係有關。延伸 Shen and Lee (2006) 我們將探討是否於金融發展與經濟成長間存在著銀行的門檻效果，並提出兩個假說，第一是「blessing-in-low-regime」，即在低度銀行發展區域，金融發展對於經濟成長有正面影響。第二是「curse-in-high-regime」即在高度銀行發展區域，金融發展對於經濟成長有負面影響。本文發展一個新的模型：dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM)是延伸Hansen (1999)的panel threshold model，認為經濟成長會受到自己上一期變數所影響，結果指出就銀行發展對於經濟成長的影響而言，在低度銀行發展區域支持「blessing-in-low-regime」；在高度銀行發展區域支持「curse-in-high-regime」。反之，就股市發展對於經濟成長的影響，在低度銀行發展區域並不支持「blessing-in-low-regime」;在高度銀行發展區域亦不支持「curse-in-high-regime」。 二、金融發展與經濟成長的雙向因果關係 本研究探討是否金融發展與經濟成長之間存在一項非線性的雙向因果關係，且此項因果關係是否受到金融發展以及經濟成長程度的影響。在全球的架構下，利用42個國家1976年到2005年的資料，使用一項新發展的計量模型：dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM)來探討此項因果關係。實證結果顯示，當使用銀行發展做為門檻變數時，在低度銀行發展區域，銀行發展對於經濟成長有正面影響，然而股市發展則對經濟成長有負面影響；而在高度銀行發展區域，銀行發展對於經濟成長的影響性則轉向負面影響，而股市發展則轉向正向支持經濟成長。相對地，無論在低度銀行發展區域或是高度銀行發展區域，經濟成長對於銀行發展皆有正面影響。最後，當使用經濟成長做為門檻變數時，本文發現金融發展與經濟成長的因果關係並未改變。 三、金融發展如何影響所得分配？倒U型分配假說與線性假說 本研究使用1976年到2005年42個發展中與已發展國家的資料，分析金融發展與所得分配的關係，並且進一步探討金融發展是否對所得分配有不對稱效果，隨著銀行發展程度的不同，其對所得分配的影響性將隨之改變。過去金融發展與所得分配的相關文獻提出兩項相對的理論假說，分別為Greenwood and Jovanovic (1990)的「倒U型分配假說」與Galor and Zeira (1993)的「線性假說」。本研究發展一項計量模型dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM)來檢驗這兩項假說。分析結果顯示，在低度銀行發展區域，股市發展將提升所得不均；而在高度銀行發展區域，股市發展則轉為減緩所得不均，支持「倒U型分配假說」。相對地，無論在低度銀行發展區域或是高度銀行發展區域，銀行發展對所得不均的影響性皆為負向的減緩效果，不支持「倒U型分配假說」，然而其對所得分配的影響性仍存在不對稱的門檻效果。 / Essay 1: Blessing or Curse? The Role of Financial Development to Economic Growth This study aims to investigate the asymmetric effect between financial development and economic growth by considering the threshold effect. Based on Shen and Lee's (2006) findings, we examine whether the effect of financial development on economic growth depends on the threshold variable of bank development. Our hypothesis is that bank development is a blessing to economic growth at the low bank development regime, but it is a curse at the high bank development regime. To examine the “blessing-in low-regime” and “curse-in high-regime” hypothesis, we develop a dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM) to test this hypothesis. The DPTM is a direct extension of the non-dynamic panel threshold model of Hansen (1999). We conclude that the effect of bank development on economic growth supports the hypothesis. Nevertheless, the effect of stock market development on economic growth does not support the hypothesis. Essay 2: A Bivariate Causality between Financial Development and Economic Growth This study hypothesizes that causal relationship between financial development and economic growth is not linear; however, it may be influenced by the level of financial development or economic growth. A new econometric method, dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM) is proposed to investigate conditional causality. Herein, the thresholds of “bank development” and “economic growth” are applied. When bank development is used as threshold in the low bank-developed regime, bank development is beneficial for economic growth. However, it poses adverse effects on the stock market. In contrast, in the high bank-developed regime, bank development exhibits an adverse effect on economic growth whereas the stock market manifests the opposite effect. Nevertheless, economic growth is beneficial for bank development in both regimes, though the influence is stronger in the low bank-developed regime. Results are robust when the income level of a country is utilized as a threshold. Essay 3: How does Financial Development Affect the Distribution of Income? Inverted U-shaped Hypothesis or Linear Hypothesis This study analyzes the relationship between financial development and income distribution using panel data from both developing and developed countries between 1976 and 2005. Specifically, we analyze whether financial development has an impact on income inequality and whether this impact depends on the threshold variable of bank development. We define the low and high bank development regimes when a country's bank development is below and above the threshold and test two alternative hypotheses the “inverted U-shaped hypothesis” and the “linear hypothesis” with a dynamic panel threshold model (DPTM). The DPTM is a direct extension of the non-dynamic panel threshold model of Hansen (1999). We find little evidence to support the inverted U-shaped relationship between inequality and finance, the effect of stock market development on inequality supports the inverted U-shaped hypothesis. Nevertheless, the effect of bank development on inequality does not support the inverted U-shaped hypothesis. However, the relationship between financial development and income distribution is nonlinear.

我國財政制度是否具有公平性往往是財政學者們注意的焦點，國內只單獨探討租稅面之文章非常多，而同時考慮整體財政收支制度文章較少，而且所採用的方法幾乎皆是「有效稅率」、「有效受益率」及「有效淨負擔率」。這些指標主要是判定財政制度是累進抑或累退，其較無法直接判定所得分配改善效果。因此本文最主要是透過租稅及公共支出歸宿假設將各類政府財政收支分攤至每一十分位家庭之所得，求出吉尼係數，利用比較吉尼係數大小來判斷我國財政制度是否會改善所得分配。利用18年資料作分析，以幫助我們更進一步地瞭解我國財政收支對所得重分配影響，所得出的結論和國內一些文章比較。首先在只考慮租稅面情況之下：直接稅具有改善所得分配效果，而間接稅反使所得分配更加惡化，整體賦稅制度具有所得重分配效果，但並非很顯著。其次再單獨考慮支出面情況下：首先對耗源性支出做家庭人口數調整，並將支出對家庭所得影響區分為三組，均顯示我國移轉性支出具有所得分配效果，而耗源性支出會使所得分配惡化，正的移轉性支出效果大於耗源性負效果，所以我國公共支出會使所得分配改善。再者，作整體考量，亦即同時探討租稅面與公共支出面之相互影響，其結果說明財政收支會改善所得重分配，而改善效果最主要來自於支出面而非租稅面。 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究動機與目的 第二節 研究方法與期間 第三節 研究限制 第四節 研究架構 第二章 文獻回顧 第一節 國外文獻 第二節 國內文獻 第三章 理論介紹 第一節 吉尼係數的概念 第二節 Suits Index 第三節 Kienzie Index 第四節 本章小結 第四章 實證程序與估計方法 第一節 預算歸宿之概念 第二節 資料來源限制與處理過程 第三節 所得之定義 第四節 租稅與支出分類 第五節 預算歸宿模型 第五章 實證結果與分析 第一節 賦稅制度對所得分配之影響 第二節 公共支出對所得重分配效果之影響 第三節 財政收支制度對所得重分配之影響 第六章 結論與未來發展