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This Dissertation consists of two essays. The first essay examines how corporate financial policies depend on the properties of future cash flows. In contrast to prior literature, we investigate the role of asymmetries in the distributionof cash flows. We document the relevance of such asymmetries for firms' payout, liquidity, and capital structure policies. Policies are more sensitive to downside volatility and the directional effect of upside variation is often opposite that of downside. Controlling for cash flow volatility,policies significantly relate to measures of skewness. Firms adopt more conservative policies (lower propensity to pay, more cash, less leverage) when cash flow news is more negatively skewed. The second essay addresses a mythical relationship between corporate payout and short-termism. Over the past 30 years, aggregate investment by US public corporations has declined, and corporate payout has increased. These facts are interpreted as evidence that public firms are plagued by short-termism and are foregoing valuable investment opportunities to support the large payouts. We find that large increases in corporate payout do not impact firm investment or innovative activities in the short run. In the long run, firms which increase their payout invest more in physical capital than control firms and that their RandD spending is comparable. Firms which increase their payout do not experience a decline in operating profitability or valuation in the long run. These conclusions hold when we restrict our attention to firms who persist in making large payouts and for those high payout firms that rely on internal funds. Our results are inconsistent with the view that unusually high payout harms the long-term viability of US firms. The evidence in the paper suggests that the high payers are from industries with declining growth opportunities but the firms themselves are expecting their high profitability and cash flow to persist. / Doctor of Philosophy / Large increases or decreases in a company’s earnings or stock returns are breathcatching. Do such large changes contain information about the company’s future performance? If so, what information do they carry? My first essay answers these questions by looking into the data. We find that extreme stock returns do carry information about firms’ long-run performance, and this information effectively predicts firms’ financial decisions including payout, cash balance, and leverage. U.S. public firms have been decreasing their capital investment and increasing their cash payout to shareholders in the past 30 years. This create a concern because these firms are supposed to support economy growth and create jobs. Some commenters would conclude that if public firms payout so much money to shareholders, they would not have enough resource to support economy growth and create jobs. We try to find evidence from the data to support or refute this argument. The data shows that firms that payout a large amount of cash to shareholders do not reduce investment relative to their otherwise similar peers, neither in the short run nor in the long run. We also find that the firms that payout high amount are from industries with declining growth opportunities but the firms themselves are expecting their high profitability and cash flow to persist.

A presente dissertação examina a cessão fiduciária do direito do acionista aos dividendos, bem como a titularidade fiduciária (garantia real) dela resultante. A razão para a análise desses institutos deve-se ao aumento no uso desta forma de garantia em operações financeiras complexas realizadas no mercado nacional. Primeiramente, é feita uma análise das diversas acepções (perfis) que o direito do acionista ao dividendo pode assumir no contexto do ordenamento jurídico nacional, para daí concluir que tal direito é passível de cessão tanto em sua condição de crédito, presente ou futuro (a depender, justamente, da existência ou não de lucros sociais já deliberados), quanto em sua condição de direito expectativo. Isto é, de direito que o acionista detém, a partir do momento em que se torna titular de ações, de vir a adquirir direitos de créditos de dividendos a serem distribuídos pela companhia de tempos em tempos. Em razão da necessidade da imediata constituição da garantia real, especialmente diante de uma eventual falência ou recuperação judicial do devedor, este trabalho conclui que a titularidade fiduciária deve recair sobre o direito expectativo aos dividendos, visto ser ele um direito já existente e que permite ao seu respectivo titular se tornar, direta e imediatamente, proprietário dos créditos de dividendos que vierem a ser futuramente distribuídos pela companhia, desde que estes estejam limitados a certos valores e/ou períodos previamente acordados entre o credor/financiador e o devedor/acionista. Ademais, apesar de ser um direito inerente à participação social, o destaque e a cessão autônoma do direito expectativo aos dividendos não conflita com o disposto no art. 28 da LSA. O presente estudo argumenta também que o credor fiduciário pode, nos termos do art. 113 da LSA, exercer certos direitos de voto na companhia, desde que (1) o objeto da garantia seja o direito expectativo aos dividendos e (2) a sua influência nas deliberações sociais restrinja-se a estabelecer a forma como o lucro social será apurado e distribuído pela sociedade. Por fim, é argumentado também que, por ser uma garantia que recai sobre direitos patrimoniais pagos em dinheiro, duas consequências imediatas revelam- se aplicáveis: (i) durante o período em que não existe qualquer inadimplemento ou vencimento regular da dívida garantida, os dividendos que vierem a ser pagos pela companhia deverão ser destinados ao acionista devedor, podendo o credor deles se beneficiar apenas quando existir o efetivo vencimento ou inadimplemento da dívida; e (ii) durante o período de inadimplemento ou na data de vencimento regular da dívida, o credor pode reter os recursos necessários à satisfação de seu crédito, desde que restitua o eventual excedente ao acionista devedor, não havendo, por isso, razão que justifique o enquadramento da excussão da garantia como sendo uma violação à proibição do pacto comissório, conforme prevista no Direito brasileiro. / This dissertation examines the fiduciary assignment of shareholders rights to dividends, as well as the fiduciary ownership (security interest) resulting from it. The reason for the analysis of these legal institutes comes from the increasing use of this type of security interest in complex financial transactions carried out in the local markets. Firstly, this works conducts the analysis of the various meanings (perspectives) which shareholders\' rights to dividends may have in different contexts of the Brazilian legal system, concluding that this right may be transferred either as a credit right, existing in the present or in the future (depending precisely on the existence of corporate profits already distributed or not), or as an expectance right. By this last one, we mean the right held by the shareholder as soon as he/she/it becomes the owner of the shares issued by a certain company that enables him/her/it to become the owner of the dividends distributed by the company from time to time. Due to the importance of the immediate granting of the security interest, especially in light of a possible bankruptcy or judicial reorganization process involving the debtor, this paper concludes that the fiduciary ownership should have the expectance right to dividends as its underlying asset. This is so because such right is already an existing right that allows the shareholder to become, directly and immediately, the owner of the dividends to be distributed by the company in the future, as long as those dividends are limited to certain amounts or periods previously agreed between the creditor/financier and the debtor/shareholder. Furthermore, despite being an inherent right to the equity stake, the detach of the expectance right to dividends from the shares which comes from, following by its assignment to other parties, does not conflict with the provision set forth in Section 28 of the Brazilian Corporation Act. This study also argues that the secured creditor may exercise certain voting rights in the company responsible for the payment of the dividends, pursuant to Section 113 of the Brazilian Corporation Act, provided that: (1) the underlying asset of the security interest is the expectance right to dividends; and (2) his/her/its influence in the companys decisions is limited to the manner according to which the corporate profits will be accounted and distributed by the company. Finally, it is also argued that, for being a security interest that has receivables as its underlying assets, two consequences turn out to be applicable. (i) Over the period in which there is no default or regular maturity of the secured debt, dividends paid by the company shall be allocated in favor of the shareholder/debtor. The creditor will be able to receive them in the maturity date or upon the occurrence of a default only. (ii) Over a default period or on the regular maturity date, the creditor may retain the necessary amount of dividends to satisfy his/her/its credit, provided that any excess cash shall be transferred to the shareholder/debtor, reason for which there are reasonable grounds to sustain that this foreclosure mechanism does not violate the non-retention of collateral assets convention rule (pacto comissório) provided under Brazilian law.

A presente dissertação examina a cessão fiduciária do direito do acionista aos dividendos, bem como a titularidade fiduciária (garantia real) dela resultante. A razão para a análise desses institutos deve-se ao aumento no uso desta forma de garantia em operações financeiras complexas realizadas no mercado nacional. Primeiramente, é feita uma análise das diversas acepções (perfis) que o direito do acionista ao dividendo pode assumir no contexto do ordenamento jurídico nacional, para daí concluir que tal direito é passível de cessão tanto em sua condição de crédito, presente ou futuro (a depender, justamente, da existência ou não de lucros sociais já deliberados), quanto em sua condição de direito expectativo. Isto é, de direito que o acionista detém, a partir do momento em que se torna titular de ações, de vir a adquirir direitos de créditos de dividendos a serem distribuídos pela companhia de tempos em tempos. Em razão da necessidade da imediata constituição da garantia real, especialmente diante de uma eventual falência ou recuperação judicial do devedor, este trabalho conclui que a titularidade fiduciária deve recair sobre o direito expectativo aos dividendos, visto ser ele um direito já existente e que permite ao seu respectivo titular se tornar, direta e imediatamente, proprietário dos créditos de dividendos que vierem a ser futuramente distribuídos pela companhia, desde que estes estejam limitados a certos valores e/ou períodos previamente acordados entre o credor/financiador e o devedor/acionista. Ademais, apesar de ser um direito inerente à participação social, o destaque e a cessão autônoma do direito expectativo aos dividendos não conflita com o disposto no art. 28 da LSA. O presente estudo argumenta também que o credor fiduciário pode, nos termos do art. 113 da LSA, exercer certos direitos de voto na companhia, desde que (1) o objeto da garantia seja o direito expectativo aos dividendos e (2) a sua influência nas deliberações sociais restrinja-se a estabelecer a forma como o lucro social será apurado e distribuído pela sociedade. Por fim, é argumentado também que, por ser uma garantia que recai sobre direitos patrimoniais pagos em dinheiro, duas consequências imediatas revelam- se aplicáveis: (i) durante o período em que não existe qualquer inadimplemento ou vencimento regular da dívida garantida, os dividendos que vierem a ser pagos pela companhia deverão ser destinados ao acionista devedor, podendo o credor deles se beneficiar apenas quando existir o efetivo vencimento ou inadimplemento da dívida; e (ii) durante o período de inadimplemento ou na data de vencimento regular da dívida, o credor pode reter os recursos necessários à satisfação de seu crédito, desde que restitua o eventual excedente ao acionista devedor, não havendo, por isso, razão que justifique o enquadramento da excussão da garantia como sendo uma violação à proibição do pacto comissório, conforme prevista no Direito brasileiro. / This dissertation examines the fiduciary assignment of shareholders rights to dividends, as well as the fiduciary ownership (security interest) resulting from it. The reason for the analysis of these legal institutes comes from the increasing use of this type of security interest in complex financial transactions carried out in the local markets. Firstly, this works conducts the analysis of the various meanings (perspectives) which shareholders\' rights to dividends may have in different contexts of the Brazilian legal system, concluding that this right may be transferred either as a credit right, existing in the present or in the future (depending precisely on the existence of corporate profits already distributed or not), or as an expectance right. By this last one, we mean the right held by the shareholder as soon as he/she/it becomes the owner of the shares issued by a certain company that enables him/her/it to become the owner of the dividends distributed by the company from time to time. Due to the importance of the immediate granting of the security interest, especially in light of a possible bankruptcy or judicial reorganization process involving the debtor, this paper concludes that the fiduciary ownership should have the expectance right to dividends as its underlying asset. This is so because such right is already an existing right that allows the shareholder to become, directly and immediately, the owner of the dividends to be distributed by the company in the future, as long as those dividends are limited to certain amounts or periods previously agreed between the creditor/financier and the debtor/shareholder. Furthermore, despite being an inherent right to the equity stake, the detach of the expectance right to dividends from the shares which comes from, following by its assignment to other parties, does not conflict with the provision set forth in Section 28 of the Brazilian Corporation Act. This study also argues that the secured creditor may exercise certain voting rights in the company responsible for the payment of the dividends, pursuant to Section 113 of the Brazilian Corporation Act, provided that: (1) the underlying asset of the security interest is the expectance right to dividends; and (2) his/her/its influence in the companys decisions is limited to the manner according to which the corporate profits will be accounted and distributed by the company. Finally, it is also argued that, for being a security interest that has receivables as its underlying assets, two consequences turn out to be applicable. (i) Over the period in which there is no default or regular maturity of the secured debt, dividends paid by the company shall be allocated in favor of the shareholder/debtor. The creditor will be able to receive them in the maturity date or upon the occurrence of a default only. (ii) Over a default period or on the regular maturity date, the creditor may retain the necessary amount of dividends to satisfy his/her/its credit, provided that any excess cash shall be transferred to the shareholder/debtor, reason for which there are reasonable grounds to sustain that this foreclosure mechanism does not violate the non-retention of collateral assets convention rule (pacto comissório) provided under Brazilian law.

For many financial analysts the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility remains inconclusive. The purpose of this study was to ascertain whether the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility for JSE-listed firms in South Africa differs from previous, similar research done on different markets. The research study answered the research question and determined what the relationship is between dividend policy and share price volatility for a representative sample of JSE-listed firms. In addition, it met the objective of finding and evaluating the relationship between dividend policy and share price volatility for a selection of JSElisted firms, under various economic conditions. The research study spanned a 12- year period with more than 1 065 observations noted. Quantitative, secondary data was collected and descriptive statistics were used during the analysis phase. Two standard multiple regression models were used to regress dividend policy and share price volatility, with the first regression model only providing a crude test between the variables. The second regression model accounted for factors that affect both variables and was included to provide a more accurate test estimation. The relationship between the dividend payout ratio and share price volatility and the relationship between dividend yield and share price volatility were evaluated and reported on, under various different economic conditions (pre, during and post the 2008 financial crisis). The study concluded that there is a negative correlation between a firm’s dividend policy and share price volatility. It further found that a firm’s dividend payout ratio, and not the dividend yield ratio, remains the single biggest contributor in explaining the variance in share price volatility throughout the different economic phases presented by pre, during and post the 2008 global financial crisis. / Finance, Risk Management and Banking / M. Com. (Financial Management)

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research involves the study of the relationship between share prices, earnings per share, dividends per share and cash flow per share. The aim is to estimate the extent of the effect of earnings per share, dividends per share and cash flow per share on share prices. A sample of industrial companies, all listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange is used. The sample includes 17 sectors, containing a total of 326 companies. The data relating to these companies is sourced from the database of the University of Stellenbosch Business School. Twenty consecutive years of reported financial results are used. This includes (i) share prices as at the company's year-end, (ii) earnings per share, (iii) dividends per share and (iv) cash flow per share for the financial year. The data for each individual company is arranged in three separate structures. One structure, known as levels, is created using the data in their original form. A second structure, first differences, is constructed using the annual changes in the original data. The third structure, first difference percentages, is created using the annual changes in the original data calculated as a percentage of the previous year's figure. Several methods are used to analyse data, by way of statistical models known as linear regression, multiple regression and stepwise regression, which is a variation of multiple regression. Regression analysis is used in deterministic models because the value of one variable is predicted on the basis of other variables. Such models are called deterministic because they allow users of data to determine the value of the dependent variable from the value of the independent variable(s). Linear regression is capable of calculating the relationship between variables, which are dependent on each other and represents the dependency as a percentage. Multiple regression is a statistical model, which calculates and represents the relationship between three or more variables as an equation. Multiple regression is capable of calculating the relationship between the three or more variables which are dependent on each other and represents the dependency as a percentage. The statistical models are applied to each company individually, based on the three structures of the data. The conclusions of this research are based upon the results of the dependency of the variables, calculated by the various statistical models. The conclusions arrived at were that (1) the first differences structure is best suited to this model, (2) by placing the data of individual companies together in one pool, the problem of weighing each company was overcome, and (3) using linear regression results together with the multiple and stepwise regression results added value in terms of comparison of the accuracy of results. A comparison was drawn between the findings of this study and those of previous writers and is referred to in the text. Four researchers namely Strong, Board and Day, Brown and Mara-Tjingaete, regressed the results of earnings versus share price and produced R2 values of 12,8 percent, 13 percent, 7 percent and 7,8 percent respectively. Brown and Mara-Tjingaete found R2 results of 14 percent and 0,6 percent respectively for dividends versus share price and this study also produced an R2 result of 0,4 percent for cash flow versus share price. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie navorsing behels die studie van die verwantskap tussen aandeelpryse, verdienste per aandeel, dividende per aandeel en kontantvloei per aandeel. Die doel daarvan is om die uitwerking van verdienste per aandeel, dividend per aandeel en kontantvloei per aandeel op aandeelpryse te bereken. 'n Steekproef van industriële maatskappye genoteer op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs is gebruik. Die steekproef strek oor 17 sektore en sluit 326 maatskappye in. Die data van hierdie maatskappye is verkry van die databank van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch Bestuurskool. Twintig opeenvolgende jare se gepubliseerde finansiële state word in die steekproef gebruik. Dit sluit in (i) aandeelpryse soos op die maatskappye se finansiële jaareinde, (ii) verdienste per aandeel, (iii) dividende per aandeel en (iv) kontantvloei per aandeel vir die finansiële jaar. Die data vir elke maatskappy is in drie verskillende strukture gerangskik. Een struktuur, bekend as vlakke, is geskep deur die data in hulle oorspronklike vorm te gebruik. 'n Tweede struktuur, eerste verskille, is saamgestel deur die jaarlikse verandering in die oorspronklike data te gebruik. Die derde struktuur, eerste verskille-persentasies, is geskep deur die jaarlikse veranderinge in die oorspronklike data, bereken as 'n persentasie van die vorige jaar se syfer, te gebruik. Verskeie metodes word gebruik om data te ontleed, deur middel van statistiese modelle bekend as lineêre regressie, meervoudige regressie en stapsgewyse regressie, 'n variasie van meervoudige regressie. Regressie ontledings word gebruik in bepalende modelle omdat die waarde van een veranderlike gebruik word as basis om die waarde van die ander veranderlike te probeer voorspel. Sulke modelle word bepalend genoem vanweë die feit dat dit gebruikers van data in staat stel om die waarde van die afhanklike veranderlike te bepaal deur middel van die waarde van die onafhanklike veranderlike(s). Lineêre regressie kan die verwantskap tussen interafhanklike veranderlikes bereken en die afhanklikheid as 'n persentasie uitdruk. Meervoudige regressie is 'n statistiese model wat die verwantskap tussen drie of meer veranderlikes as 'n vergelyking bereken en voorstel. Meervoudige regressie kan die verwantskap tussen drie of meer interafhanklike veranderlikes bereken en die afhanklikheid as 'n persentasie uitdruk. Die statistiese modelle word toegepas op elke individuele maatskappy, gebaseer op die bogenoemde drie strukture. Die bevindinge van die navorsing is gebaseer op die resultate van die afhanklikheid van die veranderlikes soos deur die verskillende statistiese modelle bereken. Die uiteindelike gevolgtrekking was dat (1) die eerste verskille-struktuur die mees gepaste vir hierdie model is, (2) deur die data van die afsonderlike maatskappye in een poel te plaas, is die probleem van die gewig per maatskappy oorkom, (3) die gebruik van lineêre, meervoudige en stapsgewyse regressie het baie waarde ten opsigte van die vergelyking van akkuraatheid van die resultate toegevoeg. Vergelykings is getref tussen bevindinge in hierdie werkstuk en die van ander navorsers. Vier navorsers, naamlik Strong, Board en Day, Brown en Mara- Tjingaete het R2 resultate vir verdienste per aandeel teenoor aandeelpryse van onderskeidelik 12,8 persent, 13 persent, 7 persent en 7,8 persent gekry. Brown en Mara-Tjingaete het R2 resultate van onderskeidelik 14 persent en 0,6 persent bevind vir dividende per aandeel teenoor aandeelpryse en hierdie studie het ook R2 resultate van 0,4 persent vir kontantvloei per aandeel teenoor aandeelpryse gelewer.

Thesis (MRek) -- Stellenbosch University, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The introduction of section 9E in the Income Tax Act, NO.58 of 1962 (hereafter "the Act") became effective on 23 February 2000. The main reasons for the introduction of this was, inter alia, to broaden the tax base and to phase in the residency basis of taxation. Consequently are the foreign dividend rules of section 9E interrelated to the foreign income rules of section 90, being the application of the residence basis of taxation. The main objective of this study is to investigate the taxation of foreign dividends in the Republic of South Africa. The introduction of section 9E saw new terminology introduced, which need analysis. This analysis is made possible by supplying the definitions from the Act, as well as making use of national and international case law. Further investigation is also done as to the relevance of section 9E to other sections in the Act, relevant anti-avoidance rules regarding foreign dividends, the effect of section 9E on investment income from tax havens, with specific reference to natural persons, the effect of taxation of foreign dividends on the migration- and investment decisions of non-residents, relief provided regarding double taxation and section 9E's effect on secondary taxation on companies. Lastly, the collection of taxation on foreign dividends is investigated. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die invoeging van artikel 9E in die Inkomstebelastingwet, No.58 van 1962 (hierna "die Wet") het van krag geword op 23 Februarie 2000. Die hoofredes vir die invoeging van die artikel in die Wet was onder andere om die belastingbasis te verbreed en om die verblyfbasis van belasting in te faseer. Juis as gevolg van laasgenoemde, word reels rakende buitelandse dividende in artikel 9E gekombineer met die buitelandse inkomste-reels van artikel9D. Die hoofdoel van hierdie studie is om belasting op buitelandse dividende in die Republiek van Suid Afrika te ondersoek. Met die invoeging van artikel 9E het daar 'n aantal nuwe terme te voorskyn gekom, wat hul ontleding noodsaak. Hierdie ontleding word moontlik gemaak deur bloot die definisies uit die Wet self weer te gee, asook deur die gebruik van nasionale en internasionale regspraak . Verdere ondersoek word ook gedoen na die toepaslikheid van artikel 9E op ander artikels in die Wet, relevante teenvermydingsbepalings met betrekking tot buitelandse dividende, die invloed van artikel 9E op beleggingsinkomste uit belastinghawens, met spesifieke verwysing na belegging deur natuurlike persone, die invloed van belasting op buitelandse dividende op die migrasieen beleggingsbesluite van nie-inwoners, verligting wat beskikbaar is ten opsigte van dubbelbelasting en die verband wat artikel 9E hou met sekondere belasting op maatskappye. Laastens word die invordering van belasting op buitelandse dividende ondersoek.

Study project (MBA)--University of Stellenbosch, 2003. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The objective of this study is to verify the cumulative factors developed by the Graduate School of Business of the University of Stellenbosch when calculating prices per share (price) over the period 1970 to 2000, earnings per share (EPS), cash flows per share (CFS) and net asset values per share(NA V). All four are done in a time series format. This study project forms part ofa larger research project of the Graduate School of Business ofthe University of Stellenbosch (USB). The data was extracted from the database of the USB and also from companies' financial annual reports and/or directors' reports of the annual financial statements of each company included in the research for the specified periods. The aim of this study is to compare the calculated implicit cumulative factors used in practice with the specific cumulative factor calculated/used by the USB. The !NET prices were compared with the prices of the USB (after using the USB specific cumulative factors). The study also compares the NAV published by companies with the NAV obtained by the USB by dividing equity/weighted average number of shares duly adjusted by the cumulative factor. Companies with minor and major differences were observed but for the purpose of this study only the examples of companies with major differences have been indicated and properly documented. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die doel van hierdie studie is om die kumulatiewe faktore wat deur die Nagraadse Bestuurskool van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch ontwikkel is, te verifieer, wanneer pryse per aandeel (prys) oor tydperk 1970 tot 2000, verdienste per aandeel, kontantvloei per aandeel en netto batewaardes per aandeel bereken word. Al vier word in 'n tydreeksformaat gedoen. Hierdie studieprojek vorm deel van 'n groter navorsingsprojek van die Nagraadse Bestuurskool van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch (USB). Die data is van die USB databasis verkry, asook van maatskappye se finansiële jaarverslae en/of direkteure se verslae van die jaarlikse finansiële state van elke maatskappy wat in die navorsing vir die spesifieke tydperke ingesluit is. Die doelwit van hierdie studie is om die berekende implisiete kumulatiewe faktore wat in die praktyk gebruik word met die spesifieke kumulatiewe faktore wat deur die USB bereken/gebruik word, te vergelyk. Die !NET pryse is met die pryse van die USB (nadat die USB spesifieke kumulatiewe faktore gebruik is) vergelyk. Die studie vergelyk ook die netto batewaardes per aandeel wat deur die maatskappye gepubliseer is met die netto batewaardes per aandeel wat deur die USB verkry is, deur die aandeelhouersbelang/geweegde gemiddelde aantal aandele wat behoorlik aangepas is, met die kumulatiewe faktore te deel. Maatskappye met groter of kleiner verskille is waargeneem, maar vir die doel van hierdie studie is slegs die voorbeelde van maatskappye met groter verskille aangedui en behoorlik voorsien.

Thesis (MDF)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / In the past it was believed that the payment of dividends would decrease the funds available to finance growth, and would therefore lead to lower future earnings growth. This belief was challenged in recent years with research that tested the relationship between dividend payout and future earnings growth, both on the individual company and aggregate market level in different countries. The results contradicted popular belief, and showed that companies with high payout ratios tend to realise stronger future earnings growth. This study tested the same relationship in South Africa and concluded that even in a developing country, dividend payout will still lead to higher future earnings growth.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study investigates the relationship between dividends and stock returns on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). In this mini study project a regression model is used to investigate the relationship between dividend yield portfolios and stock returns. Each of these dividend yield portfolios are further subdivided into dividend stability portfolios which together with a regression model are used to investigate the relationship between dividend stability and stock returns on the JSE. It follows from this study that there is a non-linear relationship between the risk-adjusted returns and dividend yields. A significant finding of this study is the fact that there is an inverse linear relationship between the dividend yield and average stock returns for dividend paying portfolios on the JSE. Investors on the JSE appear to place a premium on capital gains as opposed to dividends. It follows from this study that there is an inverse correlation between dividend stability and the risk-adjusted return with the beta coefficient increasing as dividend stability decreases. Within a particular yield portfolio, it is evident that higher systematic risk is associated with shares with unstable dividend yielding histories. It is clear from the results that this dividend signalling is not limited to high yielding stocks alone. As dividends are not entirely controlled by managers, a low stable dividend yield could signal a low exposure to systematic risk to outsiders. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: In hierdie studie word die verband tussen dividende en aandeelopbrengste op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs ondersoek. 'n Regressiemodel is in hierdie mini werkstuk gebruik om die verwantskap tussen dividend opbrengsportfolios en aandeelopbrengs te ondersoek. Elk van hierdie opbrengsportfolios is vervolgens verder verdeel in dividendstabiliteitsportfolios wat tesame met 'n regressiemodel gebruik is om die verband tussen dividendstabiliteit en aandeelopbrengs te bepaal. Dit volg uit hierdie studie dat daar 'n nie-lineêre verband tussen risiko aangepaste aandeelopbrengs en dividendopbrengs bestaan. 'n Noemenswaardige bevinding is die inverse lineêre verwantskap tussen dividend en gemiddelde aandeelopbrengs vir dividend betalende aandele op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs. Dit blyk asof beleggers op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs 'n premie plaas op kapitaalgroei ten koste van dividendopbrengs. Dit volg ook uit hierdie studie dat daar 'n inverse korrelasie is tussen dividendstabiliteit en risiko aangepaste aandeelopbrengs met die beta koëffissiënte wat toeneem soos dividendstabiliteit afneem. Binne 'n spesifieke dividendopbrengsportfolio is dit duidelik dat hoër sistematiese risiko geassosieer word met onstabiele historiese dividendopbrengste. Dit volg uit die resultate dat hierdie inligtingoordrag deur middel van dividende, nie beperk is tot hoë dividendopbrengs aandele nie. Aangesien dividende nie uitsluitlik deur bestuurders beheer word nie, kan 'n aandeel met lae maar stabiele dividendopbrengs, 'n boodskap van lae blootstelling aan sistematiese risiko aan die mark oordra.