Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited / The development of a dynamic computational model capable of predicting, with the requisite design certainty, the transient thermal response of jet vane thrust control systems has been undertaken. The modeling and simulation procedures utilized are based on the concept that the thermal processes associated with jet vane operation can be put into a transfer function form commonly found in the discipline of automatic controls. Well established system identification methods are employed to formulate and verify the relationships between the various gains and frequencies of the transfer function model and experimental data provided by Naval Weapons Center, China Lake. / http://archive.org/details/modelingofjetvan00hatz / Lieutenant, United States Navy

The U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) is the developer of the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED™) green building scoring system. On first inspection of LEED points, few address water efficiency. However, water management encompasses other points beyond the Water Efficiency (WE) category. In general, the industry is apt to take a somewhat compartmentalized approach to water management. The use of alternative water sources or the reuse of wastewater significantly complicates the water budget picture. A total water management systems approach, taking into consideration water from various sources, both inside and outside the building, should be implemented in order to devise a strategy for optimal reduction of potable water consumption and wastewater generation. Using the STELLA software to create an integrated building water management (IBWM) model provides stakeholders with a tool to evaluate potential water savings under dynamic conditions for a specific project site. Data collection for IBWM model calibration also shows that water consumption trends are unique to each project, and using LEED assumptions about water usage can overestimate or underestimate potential water savings.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo localizar faltas em sistemas de distribuição de energia elétrica utilizando apenas dados de tensão pós-falta. Não são utilizados dados de corrente pois sua medição não é um requisito mínimo dos medidores inteligentes. Os dados coletados são fornecidos a um sistema fuzzy multicamadas. A seleção dos dados de entrada para o treinamento do sistema inteligente é uma característica exclusiva deste trabalho, por ser continuação da metodologia desenvolvida durante o mestrado do autor desta tese. O cenário estudado é um alimentador de um sistema de distribuição real, com 1600 barras e 505 transformadores. Para efeito de comparação de resultados, a distância da falta é obtida de duas formas: pela composição das estimações das impedâncias de sequência zero e positiva e pela estimação direta da distância. Os resultados se mostram satisfatórios, com erros condizentes aos que são encontrados na literatura, sendo que a estimação direta da distância da falta mostrou resultados ligeiramente melhores. / This work aims to locate faults in electrical energy distribution systems using only post-fault voltage data. Current data is not used because their measurement is not a minimum requirement of smart meters. The collected data is applied to a multilayer fuzzy inference system. The way voltage data is selected to train the fuzzy system is an exclusive feature of this work, since it is a continuation of the methodology developed during the master\'s dissertation of this thesis author. The scenario studied is a feeder of an actual distribution system, with 1600 buses and 505 transformers. For the purpose of results comparison, the distance of the fault is obtained in two ways: by the composition of the zero and positive sequence impedances estimations and by the direct estimation of the distance. The results are satisfactory, with errors that are consistent with those found in the literature, while the direct estimation of the fault distance presented slightly better results.

Este trabalho tem por objetivo desenvolver uma abordagem fuzzy focando na estimação de curto prazo da demanda de potência ativa de um alimentador de sistema de distribuição de energia elétrica. A motivação para este trabalho encontra-se na redução do erro de estimação para que o sistema de distribuição como um todo seja corretamente operado. O destaque da abordagem desenvolvida é a metodologia de seleção de entradas para o sistema de estimação, que o treina fornecendo-lhe informações não redundantes e não desnecessárias sobre o comportamento da série temporal. Os resultados, obtidos com treinamento e teste de um sistema de inferência fuzzy multicamadas, mostram que as estimações realizadas selecionando as entradas do sistema de forma criteriosa apresentam menor erro que quando não há critério de seleção. Conclui-se então que a metodologia foi funcional e eficiente para o caso estudado, o que faz com que este trabalho resulte em válidas contribuições nas áreas de sistemas inteligentes, de sistemas dinâmicos e inclusive na forma metodológica de especificação de modelos de estimação de séries temporais. / This work aims to develop a fuzzy approach focusing on the short-term active power demand forecast in a feeder of an electrical energy distribution system. This work motivation lies on the reduction of the forecast error so that the whole distribution system can be correctly operated. The highlight of the developed approach is the methodology to select the inputs for the estimation system, which trains it giving to it non-redundant and non-unnecessary information about the time series behavior. The results, obtained by training and testing a multilayer fuzzy inference system, show that the estimations made by following a criterion to select the inputs have smaller error than when there is no selection criterion at all. It is therefore concluded that the methodology was functional and efficient for the case under study, what makes this work result in valid contributions for the fields of intelligent systems, dynamic systems and in the methodological way to specify models to estimate time series.

Orientadores: Wagner Caradori do Amaral, Ricardo Jose Gabrielli Barreto Campello / Dissertação (mestrado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Eletrica e de Computação / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-06T08:36:39Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Medeiros_AndersonViniciusde_M.pdf: 896535 bytes, checksum: 48d0d75d38fcbbd0f47f7c49823806f1 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2006 / Resumo: Esta dissertação apresenta uma metodologia para a geração e otimização de modelos fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno (TS) com Funções de Base Ortonormal (FBO) para sistemas dinâmicos não lineares utilizando um algoritmo genético. Funções de base ortonormal têm sido utilizadas por proporcionarem aos modelos propriedades como ausência de recursão da saída e possibilidade de se alcançar uma razoável capacidade de representação com poucos parâmetros. Modelos fuzzy TS agregam a essas propriedades as características de interpretabilidade e facilidade de representação do conhecimento. Enfim, os algoritmos genéticos se apresentam como um método bem estabelecido na literatura na tarefa de sintonia de parâmetros de modelos fuzzy TS. Diante disso, desenvolveu-se um algoritmo genético para a otimização de duas arquiteturas, o modelo fuzzy TS FBO e sua extensão, o modelo fuzzy TS FBO Generalizado. Foram analisados modelos locais lineares e não lineares nos conseqüentes das regras fuzzy, assim como a diferença entre a estimação local e a global (utilizando o estimador de mínimos quadrados) dos parâmetros desses modelos locais. No algoritmo genético, cada arquitetura contou com uma representação cromossômica específica. Elaborou-se para ambas uma função de fitness baseada no critério de Akaike. Em relação aos operadores de reprodução, no operador de crossover aritmético foi introduzida uma alteração para a manutenção da diversidade da população e no operador de mutação gaussiana adotou-se uma distribuição variável ao longo das gerações e diferenciada para cada gene. Introduziu-se ainda um método de simplificação de soluções através de medidas de similaridade para a primeira arquitetura citada. A metodologia foi avaliada na tarefa de modelagem de dois sistemas dinâmicos não lineares: um processo de polimerização e um levitador magnético / Abstract: This work introduces a methodology for the generation and optimization of Takagi-Sugeno (TS) fuzzy models with Orthonormal Basis Functions (OBF) for nonlinear dynamic systems based on a genetic algorithm. Orthonormal basis functions have been used because they provide models with properties like absence of output feedback and the possibility to reach a reasonable approximation capability with just a few parameters. TS fuzzy models aggregate to these properties the characteristics of interpretability and easiness to knowledge representation in a linguistic manner. Genetic algorithms appear as a well-established method for tuning parameters of TS fuzzy models. In this context, it was developed a genetic algorithm for the optimization of two architectures, the OBF TS fuzzy model and its extension, the Generalized OBF TS fuzzy model. Local linear and nonlinear models in the consequent of the fuzzy rules were analyzed, as well as the difference between local and global estimation (using least squares estimation) of the parameters of these local models. Each architecture had a specific chromosome representation in the genetic algorithm. It was developed a fitness function based on the Akaike information criterion. With respect to the genetic operators, the arithmetic crossover was modified in order to maintain the population diversity and the Gaussian mutation had its distribution varied along the generations and differentiated for each gene. Besides, it was used, in the first architecture presented, a method for simplifying the solutions by using similarity measures. The whole methodology was evaluated in modeling two nonlinear dynamic systems, a polymerization process and a magnetic levitator / Mestrado / Automação / Mestre em Engenharia Elétrica

Este trabalho tem por objetivo desenvolver uma abordagem fuzzy focando na estimação de curto prazo da demanda de potência ativa de um alimentador de sistema de distribuição de energia elétrica. A motivação para este trabalho encontra-se na redução do erro de estimação para que o sistema de distribuição como um todo seja corretamente operado. O destaque da abordagem desenvolvida é a metodologia de seleção de entradas para o sistema de estimação, que o treina fornecendo-lhe informações não redundantes e não desnecessárias sobre o comportamento da série temporal. Os resultados, obtidos com treinamento e teste de um sistema de inferência fuzzy multicamadas, mostram que as estimações realizadas selecionando as entradas do sistema de forma criteriosa apresentam menor erro que quando não há critério de seleção. Conclui-se então que a metodologia foi funcional e eficiente para o caso estudado, o que faz com que este trabalho resulte em válidas contribuições nas áreas de sistemas inteligentes, de sistemas dinâmicos e inclusive na forma metodológica de especificação de modelos de estimação de séries temporais. / This work aims to develop a fuzzy approach focusing on the short-term active power demand forecast in a feeder of an electrical energy distribution system. This work motivation lies on the reduction of the forecast error so that the whole distribution system can be correctly operated. The highlight of the developed approach is the methodology to select the inputs for the estimation system, which trains it giving to it non-redundant and non-unnecessary information about the time series behavior. The results, obtained by training and testing a multilayer fuzzy inference system, show that the estimations made by following a criterion to select the inputs have smaller error than when there is no selection criterion at all. It is therefore concluded that the methodology was functional and efficient for the case under study, what makes this work result in valid contributions for the fields of intelligent systems, dynamic systems and in the methodological way to specify models to estimate time series.

The production and consumption of information and communication technology (ICT) products and services continue to grow worldwide. This trend is accompanied by a corresponding increase in electricity use by ICT, as well as direct environmental impacts of the technology. Yet a more complicated picture of ICT’s effects is emerging. Positive indirect effects on environmental sustainability can be seen in substitution and optimization (enabling effects), and negative indirect effects can be seen in additional demand due to efficiency improvements (rebound effects). A variety of methods can be employed to model and assess these direct and indirect effects of ICT on environmental sustainability. This doctoral thesis explores methods of modeling and assessing environmental effects of ICT, including electronic media. In a series of five studies, three methods were at times applied in case studies and at others analyzed theoretically. These methods include life cycle assessment (LCA) and complex systems modeling approaches, including System Dynamics (SD) and agent-based (AB) modeling. The first two studies employ the LCA approach in a case study of an ICT application, namely, the tablet edition of a Swedish design magazine. The use of tablets has skyrocketed in recent years, and this phenomenon has been little studied to date. Potential environmental impacts of the magazine’s tablet edition were assessed and compared with those of the print edition. The tablet edition’s emerging version (which is marked by a low number of readers and low reading time per copy) resulted in higher potential environmental impacts per reader than did the print edition. However, the mature tablet edition (with a higher number of readers and greater reading time per copy) yielded lower impacts per reader in half the ten impact categories assessed. While previous studies of electronic media have reported that the main life-cycle contributor to environmental impacts is the use phase (which includes operational electricity use as well as the manufacture of the electronic device), the present study did not support those findings in all scenarios studied in this thesis. Rather, this study found that the number of readers played an important role in determining which life-cycle phase had the greatest impacts. For the emerging version, with few readers, content production was the leading driver of environmental impacts. For the mature version, with a higher number of readers, electronic storage and distribution were the major contributors to environmental impacts. Only when there were many readers but low overall use of the tablet device was the use phase the main contributor to environmental impacts of the tablet edition of the magazine. The third study goes beyond direct effects at product- and service-level LCAs, revisiting an SD simulation study originally conducted in 2002 to model indirect environmental effects of ICT in 15 European countries for the period 2000-2020. In the current study, three scenarios of the 2002 study were validated in light of new empirical data from the period 2000–2012. A new scenario was developed to revisit the quantitative and qualitative results of the original study. The results showed, inter alia, that ICT has a stimulating influence on total passenger transport, for it makes it more cost- and time-efficient (rebound effects). The modeling mechanism used to represent this rebound effect is further investigated in the fourth study, which discusses the feedback loops used to model two types of rebound effects in passenger transport (direct economic rebound and time rebound). Finally, the role of systems thinking and modeling in conceptualizing and communicating the dynamics of rebound effects is examined. The aim of the fifth study was to explore the power of systems modeling and simulation to represent nonlinearities of the complex and dynamic systems examined elsewhere in this thesis. That study reviews previous studies that have compared the SD and AB approaches and models, summarizing their purpose, methodology, and results, based on certain criteria for choosing between SD and AB approaches. The transformation procedure used to develop an AB model for purposes of comparison with an SD model is also explored. In conclusion, first-order or direct environmental effects of ICT production, use, and disposal can be assessed employing an LCA method. This method can also be used to assess second-order or enabling effects by comparing ICT applications with conventional alternatives. However, the assessment of enabling effects can benefit from systems modeling methods, which are able to formally describe the drivers of change, as well as the dynamics of complex social, technical, and environmental systems associated with ICT applications. Such systems methods can also be used to model third-order or rebound effects of efficiency improvements by ICT. / Den ökande produktionen och konsumtionen av produkter och tjänster inom informations- och kommunikationsteknik (IKT) leder till en ökning av den globala elanvändningen samt direkta miljökonsekvenser kopplade till IKT. Men IKT har även indirekta miljömässiga effekter. Dessa kan vara positiva till exempel genom substitutions- och optimeringseffekter eller negativa genom att till exempel ge upphov till ytterligare efterfrågan på grund av effektivisering (så kallade reboundeffekter). Olika metoder kan användas för att modellera och bedöma både direkta och indirekta effekter av IKT. Syftet med denna avhandling är att undersöka metoder för modellering samt att studera miljöeffekter av IKT och elektronisk media med hjälp av livscykelanalys (LCA) och även modellering av komplexa och dynamiska system, samt simuleringsteknik, så som System Dynamics (SD) och agentbaserad (AB) modellering. Avhandlingen omfattar fem artiklar (artikel I-V). Artikel I &amp; II beskriver resultaten från en fallstudie där miljöeffekter kopplade till en svensk tidskrift studeras med LCA. Tidskriftens version för surfplatta samt motsvarande tryckta version studeras och jämförs. Artikel III går ett steg vidare från produktnivåns LCA. Artikeln återkopplar till en SD simuleringsstudie som ursprungligen genomfördes under 2002. Simuleringsstudien gällde framtida miljöeffekter av IKT i 15 europeiska länder med tidspespektivet 2000-2020. I artikeln valideras tre scenarier från simuleringsstudien med hjälp av nya empiriska data från 2000-2012 och ett nytt scenario modelleras. Kvantitativa och kvalitativa resultat från den ursprungliga studien diskuteras. Till exempel visar artikel III att IKT har en stimulerande effekt på den totala persontrafiken genom att göra den mer kostnads- och tidseffektiv (reboundeffekt). Modelleringsmekanismen som används för att representera denna reboundeffekt diskuteras vidare i artikel IV. Artikeln belyser och diskuterar den återkopplingsslinga (feedback-loop) som används för att modellera två typer av reboundeffekter kopplade till persontrafik (direkt ekonomisk rebound och tidsrelaterad rebound) samt jämför med en tidigare studie. Artikel IV behandlar också den roll systemtänkande och modellering kan spela i konceptualisering och kommunikation av reboundeffekters dynamik. För att ytterligare undersöka systemmodelleringens och simuleringens möjligheter att representera icke-linjära komplexa och dynamiska system (exempel på sådana diskuteras i artikel III och IV), sammanställer artikel V tidigare studier som jämför SD och AB-metoder och -modeller.  Studiernas mål och metod summeras och resultaten med avseende på vilka kriterier som presenteras för att välja mellan SD och AB sammanställs. Även processen för att omvandla en befintlig SD-modell till en AB-modell beskrivs. Avhandlingens slutsats är att LCA och systemmodelleringsmetoder kan vara användbara för att studera IKTs direkta effekter så väl som indirekta effekter på miljön. / <p>QC 20150813</p>