In this thesis, I examine whether unconditional cash transfers to poor femaleheaded households have an effect on children’s educational attainment. Using a historical Swedish child allowance policy that targeted unconditional cash transfers to widow mothers with an income below a poverty threshold, I lay out a credible identification strategy, to test the hypothesis with a regression kink design. The results, although statistically underpowered and thus to be taken with a pinch of salt, point towards that cash transfers at the extensive margin increased the probability of continuing school another year to eighth grade. While this tendency can not alone be interpreted causally, the method developed can be extended in future work. With the collection and matching of two uniquely rich micro datasets tracking individuals over their life trajectory, combined with this natural experiment setting, my study contributes to building the path to understanding the link between cash transfers and human capital development in childhood. Ultimately, it could add to the policy guidance literature.

The awareness and interest for digitalization have increased tremendously during recent years. However, many companies are struggling to identify the economic benefits and often face long payback time and large initial investment costs. This study aims to assess the potential economic effects from digitalization projects in the steel production industry. The study begins by elucidating central concept like, digitization, digitalization, digital transform and the link between digitalization and automation. Furthermore, the study identifies effects of digitization at production level from an internal efficiency perspective, based on existing literature. On this basis, an investment tool for digitization projects has been developed, consisting of three different analyzes; a level of automation analysis, a quantitative analysis and a qualitative analysis. To continue, the investment model has been applied to a potential investment of a smart automatic crane. The results from all three analyses provided positive results and incentives to initiate the project. As a result of poor data collection and rigid data, only one effect could be accounted for in the quantitative analysis, which generated a net present value of nearly 12 MSEK over a tenyear period. The most critical parameter proved to be the timing of initiating the project. / Medvetenheten och intresset för digitalisering har ökat enormt under de senaste åren. Många företag kämpar emellertid med att identifiera de ekonomiska fördelarna och möter ofta långa återbetalningstider och stora initiala investeringskostnader. Denna studie syftar till att utvärdera de potentiella ekonomiska effekterna av digitaliseringsprojekt i stålproduktionsindustrin. Studien börjar med att redogöra för vad digitalisering är samt kopplingen mellan digitalisering och automation. Vidare identifierar studien effekter av digitalisering på produktionsnivå ur ett internt effektivitetsperspektiv baserat på befintlig litteratur. Baserat på detta har ett investeringsverktyg för digitaliseringsprojekt utvecklats, bestående av tre olika analyser; en automationsgradsanalys, en kvantitativ analys och en kvalitativ analys. Investeringsmodellen har dessutom tillämpats på en potentiell investering i form av en smart automatkran. Resultaten från samtliga tre analyser var positiva och utgjorde incitament till att initiera projektet. Som ett resultat av bristande datainsamling och ostrukturerade data kunde kostnadsbesparingen från endast en effekt redovisas i den kvantitativa analysen, vilken genererade ett nuvärde på nästan 12 MSEK under en tioårsperiod. Den mest kritiska parametern visade sig vara tidpunkten för att implementera projektet.

This thesis explores the role of Development policy as an alternative to the traditional public security focused strategies for tackling organised crime violence in Latin America and the Caribbean. To do so, it builds bridges between the academic literature of criminology and development. It examines the public experiences of insecurity in Mexico and the social impacts of a development initiative, the Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) programme in two municipalities in Mexico. The thesis poses questions about the impacts of Development initiatives upon organised crime violence from the perspectives of those living within areas affected by violence. The CCT programmes seek to address poverty in the short and long-term and research has begun to explore the potential of these programmes to diminish violence and crime, almost exclusively from a quantitative research approach, whereas this study adopts a qualitative design. This research is based on data gathered through interviews, observations, and focus groups to examine the perspectives and experiences of current and former CCT recipients, CCT administrators, public security officials, members of the public, NGO leads, and ex-gang affiliated individuals. This micro-level qualitative methodology adopted in this research contrasts the almost exclusively macro-level, econometric evaluations which have dominated CCT and organised crime research. The findings demonstrated that respondents perceived CCTs as significant in reducing the propensity of young men participating in organised crime violence in their localities. The perspectives of participants in this study provided enough evidence to overturn a common narrative of ‘prevention doesn’t work’ and suggest that in each of the areas targeted by the study there is potential for a reduction of organised crime rooted in development initiatives according to respondents.

Cash assistance has emerged as a vital tool for supporting household recovery in Nepal after multiple disasters, including the 2015 earthquake, 2018 drought, and COVID-19 pandemic. This research engages with organizational learning theory to explore how cash programs evolved overtime and identify the challenges and opportunities encountered in program implementation. Using semi-structured interviews, I recorded the experiences of individuals from NGOs, INGOs, and donor agencies involved in managing these programs in Nepal. While initial skepticism from the government, limited resources, and beneficiaries' lack of access to financial institutions presented obstacles, cash programs empowered individuals to meet their needs and revitalized local economies. The research identifies that technological integration, use of market analysis, and collaboration with financial institutions as evidence of learning from past programs to inform new programs; however, government resistance remained a barrier. Interview participants emphasized the importance of collaboration, innovation, and adaptation to improve future cash programs and, build a more resilient Nepal that is better prepared for future disasters.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch Universiteit, 2000. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The important changes in real interest rates, deregulation, amalgamation and the change of enterprise form from co-operatives to companies, require a new approach towards the utilisation and management of capital in the agricultural business. The economic environment has changed from a situation where management used nearly uncontrolled amounts of capital to get turnover, towards a capital scarce situation where capital is applied with caution and where profits are required. This new approach calls for focus on working capital. This study proposes a conceptual approach to the evaluation of the management of cash. The concept of a STREAM / WELL of cash, as used by Hamman (1999) at the Business School of the University of Stellenbosch, is described. The cash flow statements of some co-operatives have been standardised to produce comparable figures for income from operating -, investment- and financing activities. The STREAM / WELL approach with a graphic presentation of income from operating -, investment - and financing activities are used to demonstrate the usefulness thereof. The conclusion is made that profit margins are too low in this kind of business because of a lower than needed mark-up. The working capital cycle is too long in most of the businesses, which indicates that too much working capital is used to generate the income. Lastly, the growth in turnover is as a determinant factor for working capital, too unpredictable and uncontrolled because of inherent qualities of this business environment. The risk in this market, because of climate and uncontrollable factors, is not calculated but indications are that this risk is high. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die ingrypende verandering van reële rentekoerse, deregulering, amalgamasies en omskakeling van koöperasies na maatskappye, verg nuwe benaderings tot die bestuur en aanwending van kapitaal in die landbou. Vanuit 'n omgewing waar omsette nagejaag is met feitlik onbeperkte toegang tot fondse, het die landbouondernemings se benadering verander na ondernemings met beperkte kapitaal wat oordeelkundig aangewend moet word en bevredigende opbrengste moet lewer. Hierdie tendens noodsaak 'n gefokusde benadering tot die bestuur van bedryfskapitaal. Die studie stel 'n konsepsuele benadering voor om ondernemings se bestuur van kontant, soos gerapporteer in kontantvloeistate, te evalueer. Die konsep van 'n STROOM / PUT benadering, soos jare lank deur Hamman (1999) gebruik om die begrippe te verduidelik aan die Bestuurskool van die Universiteit van Stellenbosch, word omskryf. Die kontantvloeistate van 'n aantal landbouondernemings is gestandaardiseer om vergelykende opbrengste uit bedryfs-, investerings- en finansieringsaktiwiteite te bereken. Die STROOM / PUT benadering word saam met 'n grafiese voorstelling van die bydraes uit bedryfs-, investerings- en finansieringsaktiwiteite gebruik om die aanwending daarvan te demonstreer. Daar word tot die slotsom gekom dat winsgewendheid te laag is in ondernemings van dié aard hoofsaaklik omdat winsgrense te laag is. Oor die algemeen is die bedryfskapitaalsiklus te lank, wat daarop dui dat te veel bedryfskapitaal aangewend word om die opbrengs te genereer. Laastens is die groei in omset, as bepaler van die vraag na bedryfskapitaal, ongekontroleerd en wisselvallig as gevolg van die inherente eienskappe van die landbou sakeomgewing. Die risiko opgesluit in dié markomgewing wat grootliks deur klimaat en ander onbeheerbare faktore beïnvloed word, word nie bereken nie, maar die studie dui op besondere hoë risiko's van dié aard.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001 / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This focus of this study is to analyse trends between three different performance variables for all listed industrials on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange. The three variables are earnings per share, headline earnings per share and operating cash flow per share. Sample A represents data from 1974 to 1999, and Sample B from 1990 to 1999. There are many companies that still do not report headline earnings per share in their financial reports as at the end of their financial year for 1999. A list of these companies is attached as Appendix A. A total of 21 different combinations of the variables were tested for correlations. From this investigation three significant relationships were noted. Firstly, there is a high correlation between earnings per share and operating cash flow per share. The pooled result from 1974 to 1999 is 0,636, that confirms a positive relationship between the two variables. Secondly, the result of the same two variables from the Sample B dataset also shows a high correlation of 0,601 (pooled result). Thirdly, there is a very strong negative pooled result of -0,897 when analysing the difference between (EPS-HEPS) and (HEPS-CFPS). An interesting observation was that although individual yearly results were showing high correlations, the pooled results did not reflect the same tendency. Validated findings attained through statistical testing in this study will in future allow analysts to predict the behaviour of one variable based on the performance of another variable. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die fokus van hierdie studie is om tendense tussen drie verskillende prestasieveranderlikes vir alle genoteerde nywerheidsaandele op die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs te ontleed. Die drie veranderlikes is verdienste per aandeel (VPA), wesensverdienste per aandeel (WVPA) en kontantvloei uit bedryfsaktiwiteite per aandeel (KBAPA). Steekproef A verteenwoordig data vanaf 1974 tot 1999 en Steekproef B vanaf 1990 tot 1999. Teen die einde van 1999 was daar steeds maatskappye wat nie die wesensverdienste per aandeel in hulle finansiële verslae rapporteer nie. 'n Lys van hierdie maatskappye is aangeheg as "Bylae A". In totaal is 21 verskillende kombinasies van die veranderlikes getoets vir onderlinge afhanklikheid. Die ondersoek het drie betekenisvolle verhoudings gelewer. Eerstens is daar 'n hoë onderlinge afhanklikheid tussen verdienste per aandeel en kontantvloei uit bedryfsaktiwiteite per aandeel. Die saamgevoegde resultate vanaf 1974 tot 1999 is 0,636, wat 'n positiewe verhouding tussen die twee veranderlikes bevestig. Tweedens toon die resultate van dieselfde twee veranderlikes van Steekproef B se datastel ook 'n hoë onderlinge afhanklikheid van 0,601 (saamgevoegde restultate). Derdens is daar 'n baie sterk negatiewe resultaat van -0,897 wanneer die verskil tussen (VPA-WVPA) en (WVPA-KBAPA) ontleed word. 'n Interessante waarneming was dat, alhoewel individuele jaarlikse resultate hoë onderlinge afhanklikheid getoon het, die saamgevoegde resultate nie dieselfde neiging weerspieël het nie. Geldige bevindinge, verkry deur statistiese proefneming in hierdie studie, sal analiste in die toekoms toelaat om die gedrag van een veranderlike te voorspel gebaseer op die prestasie van 'n ander veranderlike.

Thesis (MBA)--Stellenbosch University, 2001. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Both the income statement and the cash flow statement of a company provide useful information to the user of financial statements. The net profit after tax in the income statement and the cash from operating activities in the cash flow statement have basically the same transactions as source, however they still differ, because of timing differences between the accrual of income and expenses and the cash receipts or payments thereof, as well as the inclusion of items in the net profit after tax that rather forms part of cash flow from investment activities. A growth in turnover usually coincides with an increase in non-cash working capital. When the company is expanding at too high a rate, too much of his cash resources are taken up by the increase in non-cash working capital and that could lead to cash flow problems. This trend can be plotted on a graph, with a growing net profit after tax and a decline in the cash flow from operating activities. The two lines move away from each other when there is a significant difference between the net profit after tax and the cash flow from operating activities. This study tries to measure the angle between the two lines where they reach the danger zone. Users of financial statements will be able to use this as an indicator of companies that are going to be in cash flow trouble over the next period. In order to measure this angle when the company reaches the danger zone, 365 listed industrial companies were studied. The net profit after tax and the cash flow from operating activities were both transformed into an index, with cash flow relative to net profit. The difference between the index strings was calculated. This study only focuses on companies with an index-difference where the cash flow from operating activities is smaller than the net profit after tax. An index-difference of -2 was identified as the possible danger zone. In order to substantiate this figure, companies with an index-difference of -2 or larger negative that still were listed at the time of the study were examined to find the reason for the difference. Items that do not form part of the cash flow from operating activities cannot be used in the calculation of the index-difference, because it will generate a permanent difference between the net profit after tax and the cash from operating activities. Companies that have a huge negative index-difference only because of such items are not in the danger zone. 33 companies with an index-difference of -2 or more negative were identified. Focus was placed on the thirteen companies that did not have losses and that were still listed at the time of the study. Six of these companies were removed from the danger list after the individual examination, because of other reasons for the difference rather than an increase in non-cash working capital. That leaves seven companies that are shown by this study to be in danger to get into serious cash flow trouble in the foreseeable future. A few additional companies were examined which led to another six companies being placed on the danger list. Only time will tell whether these companies do get into serious financial difficulty. If so, the index-difference can be calculated as an indicator of the point when a company, regardless of a strong growth in turnover, and sometimes because thereof, does not generate enough cash from operating activities to finance the growth in non-cash working capital. Unless the company has a holding company that is willing to pour more cash into the company, or unless the company can do a successful rights issue, it will find itself in the position where it cannot finance the expansion and also cannot obtain more additional funding. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Beide die inkomstestaat en kontantvloeistaat van 'n maatskappy verskaf nuttige inligting aan gebruikers van finansiële state. Die netto wins na belasting uit die inkomstestaat en die kontantvloei uit bedryfsaktiwiteite uit die kontantvloeistaat het basies dieselfde transaksies as bron, maar verskil tog, hoofsaaklik vanweë tydverskil in die erkenning van die toevalling van inkomste en uitgawes en die kontantontvangstes en -betalings daarvan, asook vanweë die insluiting van items in die netto wins na belasting wat eerder deel vorm van die kontantvloei uit investeringsaktiwiteite. Wanneer die maatskappy 'n groei in omset toon, gaan dit gewoonlik gepaard met 'n toename in nie-kontant bedryfskapitaal. Wanneer die maatskappy te vinnig groei, word te veel van sy kontantbronne vasgevang in die verhoogde nie-kontant bedryfskapitaal en dit kan lei tot kontantvloeiprobleme. Hierdie tendens kan op 'n grafiek uitgebeeld word met 'n stygende netto wins na belasting, terwyl die kontantvloei uit bedryfsaktiwiteite daal. Wanneer daar 'n aansienlike verskil tussen die netto wins na belasting en die kontantvloei uit bedryfsaktiwiteite is, beweeg die twee lyne uit mekaar. Dié studie poog om die grootte van die hoek tussen die twee lyne wanneer die gevaarsone bereik word, te bepaal. Dit kan dan deur gebruikers van die finansiële state as 'n aanduiding gebruik word om te voorspel watter maatskappye oor die volgende tydperk kontantvloeiprobleme sal hê. Ten einde die grootte van die hoek te meet waar die maatskappy die gevaarsone binne beweeg is 365 genoteerde industriële maatskappye se data bestudeer. Die netto wins na belasting en die kontantvloei uit bedryfsaktiwiteite is beide as 'n indeks uitgedruk, laasgenoemde relatief tot eersgenoemde. Die verskil tussen die twee indeks-reekse is bereken, naamlik die indeks-verskil. Die studie is slegs gefokus op maatskappye met 'n indeks-verskil waar die kontantvloei uit bedryfsaktiwitete kleiner is as die netto wins na belasting. 'n Indeks-verskil van -2 is geïdentifiseer as die moontlike gevaarsone. Ten einde hierdie syfer te steun is die maatskappye wat ten tye van die navorsing steeds genoteer is en 'n indeks-verskil van -2 of groter negatief het, individueel ondersoek om die rede vir die indeks-verskil vas te stel. Items wat op 'n ander plek in die kontantvloeistaat as in die bedryfsaktiwiteite hanteer word, kan nie in ag geneem word in die berekening van die indeks-verskil nie, aangesien dit 'n permanente afwyking tussen die netto wins na belasting en kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite sal veroorsaak. Maatskappye wat dus bloot as gevolg van sodanige items 'n groot negatiewe indeks-verskil het, val nie in die gevaarsone nie. 33 maatskappye is geïdentifiseer met 'n indeks-verskilvan -2 of groter negatief. Daar is gefokus op die dertien maatskappye wat nie verliese gely het nie en steeds ten tye van die afhandeling van die studie genoteer was. Ses van hierdie maatskappye is tydens die individuele ondersoek van die gevaarlys gehaal aangesien daar ander redes vir die groot indeks-verskil was as 'n toename in nie-kontant bedryfskapitaal. Dit laat dan sewe maatskappye wat deur dié studie aangedui word as om moontlik finansiële probleme op te tel binne die afsienbare toekoms. 'n Paar addisionele maatskappye is ondersoek, waarna 'n verdere ses op die gevaarlys geplaas is. Slegs die tyd sal leer of die betrokke maatskappye wel in 'n finansiële verknorsing beland. Indien wel, kan hierdie indeks-verskil bereken word en as 'n aanduiding gebruik word van die punt wanneer 'n maatskappy, in baie gevalle ten spyte van goeie groei in omset, maar dan ook juis as gevolg daarvan, nie genoeg kontant uit bedryfsaktiwiteite genereer om die groei in nie-kontant bedryfskapitaal te finansier nie. Tensy die maatskappy 'n houermaatskappy het wat bereid is om nog kontant te stort in die maatskappy, of tensy die maatskappy 'n suksesvolle regte-uitgifte kan maak, vind hy homself in die posisie dat hy nie die uitbreiding kan finansier nie en dat hy ook nie meer addisionele finansiering kan bekom nie.

Die vorliegende Dissertation umfasst vier Aufsätze, von denen die ersten beiden die regionale und individuelle Persistenz von Arbeitslosigkeit analysieren. Der dritte Aufsatz erforscht das passende Design für die Höhe von finanziellen Leistungen im Rahmen von Cash-Transfer-Programmen und der vierte Aufsatz präsentiert eine alternative internationale Armutsgrenze verglichen mit der aktuellen offiziellen Armutsgrenze der Weltbank. Während die ersten drei Essays sich auf die Situation Indonesiens beziehen, geht der vierte Aufsatz auf die Situation aller Entwicklungsländer ein. Der erste Essay testet die Hysterese-Hypothese gegen verschiedene Hypothesen zur Persistenz von Arbeitslosigkeitsraten in den Provinzen Indonesiens und verwendet dabei Zeitreihen- und Panel-Unit-Root-Analysen mit Daten aus den Jahren 1990 bis 2012. Die Ergebnisse zeigen einerseits, dass die meisten individuellen Tests auf Provinzebene, die sich auf lineare Trends und CBS-Definitionen stützen, die Hysterese-Hypothese nicht verwerfen können. Andererseits wird die Hysterese-Vermutung vermehrt verworfen, wenn die Tests quadratische Trends und die alte Definition (U1) nutzen. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse der Tests, die die Hysterese-Hypothese anhand verschiedener Sample-Kategorien, wie beispielsweise Geschlecht, analysieren, legen das Verwerfen der Hypothese ebenfalls nahe. Wenn die Ergebnisse mittels Panel-Daten untersucht werden, verwirft die Mehrheit der Tests Hysterese, ganz gleich ob lineare oder quadratische Trends benutzt werden. Schließlich stellt der Artikel fest, dass lokale Wirtschaftsmaßnahmen zur Investitionsförderung und Politiken, die auf das Wachstum der realen regionalen Mindestlöhne ausgerichtet sind, sich besser als die Erhöhung lokaler staatlicher Ausgaben dazu eignen, die Arbeitslosenquote zu senken und sie an normale Levels auf den lokalen Arbeitsmärkten anzupassen. Der zweite Essay führt eine dynamische Probit-Analyse bezüglich dem Auftreten individueller Arbeitslosigkeit durch und benutzt dabei Paneldaten des National Socio-Economic Surveys (Susenas) von 2008-2010. Der Aufsatz vergleicht mehrere dynamische Random-Effects-Schätzer miteinander, wobei er besonders auf die Ansätze von Heckman (1981) und Wooldridge (2005) eingeht. Die Ergebnisse finden starke Belege für die Persistenz bzw. die zeitliche Abhängigkeit individueller Arbeitslosigkeit in Indonesien. Dieses Resultat fügt sich in die Theorie des "Scar-Unemployment" ein. Der dritte Essay untersucht die derzeitige Empfängergruppe von Cash-Transfer-Programmen (mit Fokus auf BLT und PKH Programmen) in Indonesien. Als Alternative zu bestehenden, fixen, staatlichen Leistungen der indonesischen Regierung im Rahmen der Cash-Transfer-Programme, schlägt der Aufsatz bessere Methoden für das Design und die Berechnung der Höhe der finanziellen Unterstützung vor. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass eine signifikante Anzahl von nicht-armen oder nicht-berechtigten Haushalten staatliche Leistungen erhalten. Auf der Grundlage von Simulationen ergeben sich deshalb folgende alternative Optionen für die Höhe der Auszahlungen: (1) die Transferzahlungen so anpassen, dass sie dem Einkommensdefizit des armen Haushalts zzgl. der erwarteten Inflation entsprechen, oder (2) die Leistungen so auszahlen, dass sie dem 75%-Perzentil des Einkommensdefizits der Haushalte zzgl. der erwarteten Inflation in den entsprechenden Provinzen entsprechen. Diese zwei alternativen Optionen reduzieren die regionalen Armutsraten signifikant verglichen mit der derzeitigen fixen und generellen staatlichen Transferleistung. Schließlich zeigen wir mit dem letzten Aufsatz, dass die von Ravallion, Chen, und Sangraula (2009) geschätzte Beziehung zwischen durchschnittlichem Konsum und nationalen Armutsgrenzen für die Herleitung der absoluten internationalen Armutsgrenze in Höhe von $1.25 pro Tag statistisch problematisch ist. Unsere alternative statistische Schätzung erzeugt einen Punktschätzer einer absoluten internationalen Armutsgrenze, der substanziell höher liegt als $1.25 pro Tag; allerdings verfügen die Schätzer über sehr hohe Standardfehler.

Thesis (MBA)--Universiteit van Stellenbosch, 1995. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Traditional financial ratios are used by different analysts to predict and evaluate various elements of a company. However, such ratios all suffer from the basic limitation of accrual-based accounting, hence the perception that cash flow ratios may be more suitable and possibly even more appropriate to evaluate companies. Most of these applications employ parametric statistical procedures of which the validity partly depends on the underlying distributional properties of the ratio involved. This study project is an evaluation of the underlying distributional properties of forty seven cash flow ratios based on the published annual results of 350 industrial companies, listed on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange for the period 1975 to 1993. As an initial test, the results of the ratios were subject to the null-hypothesis of normality as reflected by the p-values of the chi - square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests respectively . Secondly, the study project attempted to give an indication of the underlying distributional properties by comparing the average with the median of the various cash flow ratios. The first evaluation was done for each ratio. after the data was aggregated, for both the various divisions and over all the financial periods to evaluate what is referred to as the sector as a whole. The results of this evaluation clearly indicate that the underlying distributional properties are definitely not normally distributed. However, the lack of normality may be founded in either the lack of homogeneity between the various divisions. or due to the aggregation of the various financial periods . A second evaluation was done on the individual ratios for each financial period. Although the different years lead to slightly different results it is still apparent that the null-hypothesis of normality for the majority of ratios are being rejected, especially consistent results to this effect were found for the period 1988 to 1993. A third and final evaluation was done on all the different ratios for the individual divisions. Again the results for the different divisions vary, but once again it ;s apparent that the null-hypothesis of normality is being rejected for the vast majority of the ratios . In this regard the results of specifically divisions industrial holding (15), food (25), engineering (28) and electronics (29) are particularly consistent. The lack of normality in the sector analysis may indicate the presence of specific division relevant characteristics, while the results of the intertemporal evaluation indicate that the distributional properties approximate normality by aggregation over time . The analysis also proves beyond any doubt that irrespective of whether disaggregation is done over either financial periods or between the different divisions, ratios 02, 03, 06, 15, 16 and 17 are positive skewely distributed . Accordingly, ratios 13 and 27 are negative skewely distributed . If one has to advise a researcher or practitioner to whom an underlying normal distribution of a cash flow ratio is important, one would probably advise in the first instance to disaggregate over time, as a second app roach to disaggregate over divisions, but never to treat the industrial sector as a pooled sample. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Tradisionele finansiele verhoudings word deur verskeie markontleders vir verskillende voorspellings aangewend . Aangesien die verhoudings almal onderworpe is aan die beperking van opgelope rekeningkundige waarde word kontantvloeiverhoudings voorgehou as 'n nuttiger en moontlik selfs doeltreffender metode om ondernemings te evalueer. In die meeste van die toepassings word parametriese statistiese prosedures gebruik, waarvan die geldigheid gedeeltelik berus op die onderliggende verdelingseienskappe van die verhoudings. Die werkstuk is 'n studie van die onderliggende verde' ingseienskappe van sewe-en-veertig kontantvloeiverhoudings S005 jaarliks vir die tydperke 1975 tot 1993 gepubliseer is in die finansie1e verslae van 350 maatskappye wat genoteer is in die nywerheidsektor van die Johannesburgse Effektebeurs. In die verband is die resultate van die verhoudings eerstens onderwerp aan die nulhipotese van normaliteit deur dit te evalueer aan die hand van die p-waarde van sowel die chi-kwadraat- as Kolmogorov-Smirnovtoetse. Vervolgens dui die werkstuk die onderliggende verdeling aan, deur die gemiddeld en mediaan van die kontantvloeiverhoudings te vergelyk. Vir die eerste evaluasie is alle verhoudings oar jie verskillende finansiele tydperke en van die verskillende afdelings saamgevoeg am die sektor in die geheel te eva1ueer. Vol gens die evaluasie is die onderliggende verde1ing van die verhoudings nie normaal nie. Oit mag moontlik logies verklaar word deur die heterogeniteit van die verskil1ende afde1ings, of weens die samevoeging van die resultate oar verskillende finansiele tydperke. Tweedens is die onderskeie finans;ele tydperke afsonder1ik ont1eed . A1 het die resultate van die onderskeie termyne effens verskil, is dit duidelik dat die nulhipotese van normaliteit by die oorgrotte meerderheid van verhoud ings beslis verwerp moet word. Dit is interessant dat in die resu1tate van spesifiek 1988 tot 1993 die hipotese absoluut konsekwent verwerp word. laastens is die verhoudings afsonderlik vir elk van die onderskeie afdelings ontleed. Weereens het die resultate van die onderskeie afdelings verskil, maar dit was oak weer duidelik dat die oor9rote meerderheid van verhoudings die nulhipotese van normaliteit verwerp . In die verband was veral die resultate van die afdelings nywerheids beherend (15), voedsel (25). ingenieurswese (28) en elektronika (29) merkwaardig konsekwent. Die gebrek aan normaliteit tussen die verskillende afdelings mag maontlik aantoon dat sekere eienskappe, eie aan die afdeling, die verdelingseienskappe beinvloed . Die resultate van die intertemporale studie toon beslis dat normaliteit benaderd word indien verhoudings oar tyd saamgevaeg word. Wat die ontleding ook bo alle twyfel bewys is dat die verhoudings 02, 03, 06, 15, 16 en 17 vir die sektor as 'n geheel, die intertemporale- en die kruissektorale-ontledings konsekwent onderliggend positief skeef verdee1 is. Verhoudings 13 en 27 is egter onderliggend negatief skeef verdeel. Aanbevelings rakende die onderliggende verdeling van kontantvloeiverhoudings is beslis om eerstens verskillende finansiele tydperke te onderskei en tweedens die verskillende afdelings. maar beslis om nie die nywerheidsektor as 'n geheel te evalueer nie.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Verskeie navorsingsprojekte is oor die jare gedoen ten opsigte van die voorspellingsmoontlikhede van kontantvloei en winste, met teenstrydige resultate. Daar is egter weinig navorsing gedoen oor die verhouding wat tussen winste en kontantvloei bestaan. Hierdie navorsingsverslag beoog om ondersoek in te stel na die verhouding tussen kontantvloei en winste, dus om te poog om te bepaal watter een die drywer is, maar ook om te bepaal of die een veranderlike ingespan kan word om vooruitskattings ten opsigte van die ander te kan doen. Aangesien finansiële tydreekse die meeste van die tyd nie-stasionêr is, moet dit in ag geneem word wanneer die kousale verwantskap tussen die twee veranderlikes bepaal word, asook wanneer regressie-analise met die oog op vooruitskatting gedoen word. Daar word egter vermoed dat die aspek van stasionariteit weinig aandag geniet in menige navorsing wat ten opsigte van finansiële tydreekse gedoen word. Die feit dat weinig tydreekse stasionêr is, is bevestig deur te toets vir die bestaan van eenheidswortels in die veranderlikes. Die beste resultate vir stasionariteit is verkry deur die tweede verskille van die veranderlikes te bereken. Daar kon egter nie met sekerheid vasgestel word of winste kontantvloei dryf of andersom nie. Die gevaar van skyn-korrelasie is ook bewys, aangesien 'n groot aantal pare veranderlikes beduidende korrelasies tussen mekaar aandui, maar wanneer hulle stasionariteit en kousaliteit in ag geneem word, is weinig van die pare veranderlikes kousaal verwant aan mekaar. Die toets vir ko-integrasie is ingespan om steun te verleen by die regressie-analise en vooruitskatting van die tydreekse. Die regressie analise van die geko-integreerde tydreekse het in die meeste gevalle 'n hoë R2 en aangepaste R2 gelewer. Die vooruitskattings was egter teleurstellend onakkuraat. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Throughout the years a variety of research projects have been done about the predictive ability of cash flow and earnings, with contradictory results. However, limited research has been done about the relationship between cash flow and earnings. The aim of this research report is to investigate the relationship between cash flow and earnings, thus attempting to determine which one is the driver, but also to investigate the ability of one variable to predict the other. Because financial time series are non-stationary most of the time, this fact has to be taken into account when the causal relationship between the two variables is determined, as well as when regression analysis is done with forecasting in view. It is, however, suspected that the fact of stationarity has been neglected in much of the research that has been done on financial time series. The fact that very few time series are stationary has been established by testing for the existence of unit roots in the variables. The best results for stationarity were obtained by calculating the second differences of the variables. It could not be established beyond doubt whether earnings cause cash flows or vice versa. The danger of spurious correlation has been proved, because a vast number of pairs of variables indicates a significant correlation with one another, but when stationarity and causality are taken into account, only a few pairs of variables are truly significantly correlated to one another. The test for co-integration was used to assist in the regression analysis and forecasting of non-stationary time series. The regression analysis of most of the co-integrated variables resulted in a high R2 and adjusted R2. The forecasted values, however, were disappointingly inaccurate. / cmc2010