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Messung der Vulnerabilität der Armut - Eine statistische Analyse mit deutschen Paneldaten / Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty - A Statistical Analysis Using German Panel DataLandau, Katja 24 May 2012 (has links)
No description available.
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Essays on the general equilibrium effects of barriers to trade on economic growth, foreign trade and the location of economic activity in BrazilFerraz, Lucas Pedreira do Couto 16 April 2010 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2010-04-16 / This work presents a fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy that tries to quantify both the role of barriers to trade on economic growth and foreign trade performance and how the distribution of the economic activity may change as the country opens up to foreign trade. Among the distinctive features embedded in the model, modeling of external scale economies, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs provides an innovative way of dealing explicitly with theoretical issues related to integrated regional systems. In order to illustrate the role played by the quality of infrastructure and geography on the country‟s foreign and interregional trade performance, a set of simulations is presented where barriers to trade are significantly reduced. The relative importance of trade policy, port efficiency and land-maritime transport costs for the country trade relations and regional growth is then detailed and quantified, considering both short run as well as long run scenarios. A final set of simulations shed some light on the effects of liberal trade policies on regional inequality, where the manufacturing sector in the state of São Paulo, taken as the core of industrial activity in the country, is subjected to different levels of external economies of scale. Short-run core-periphery effects are then traced out suggesting the prevalence of agglomeration forces over diversion forces could rather exacerbate regional inequality as import barriers are removed up to a certain level. Further removals can reverse this balance in favor of diversion forces, implying de-concentration of economic activity. In the long run, factor mobility allows a better characterization of the balance between agglomeration and diversion forces among regions. Regional dispersion effects are then clearly traced-out, suggesting horizontal liberal trade policies to benefit both the poorest regions in the country as well as the state of São Paulo. This long run dispersion pattern, on one hand seems to unravel the fragility of simple theoretical results from recent New Economic Geography models, once they get confronted with more complex spatially heterogeneous (real) systems. On the other hand, it seems to capture the literature‟s main insight: the possible role of horizontal liberal trade policies as diversion forces leading to a more homogeneous pattern of interregional economic growth.
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Mandatos de biocombustíveis e crescimento da demanda mundial de etanol: efeitos sobre a economia brasileiraSilva, Mariana Rezende e 18 December 2017 (has links)
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Previous issue date: 2017-12-18 / O agravamento dos efeitos do aquecimento global, a volatilidade do preço do petróleo e a preocupação com a segurança energética são questões que contribuem para o aumento dos incentivos para a produção de biocombustíveis e o desenvolvimento de políticas relacionadas. A partir dos anos 2000 regiões como dos Estados Unidos e União Europeia lançaram os mandatos de biocombustíveis, políticas que estabelecem metas de consumo e produção de combustíveis renováveis até o ano de 2020. O crescimento da demanda interna não é acompanhado de um crescimento na oferta interna, precisando assim, importar etanol ou biodiesel. É nesse cenário que surge o Brasil como possível provedor de etanol para essas regiões por conta da disponibilidade de terras para a expansão do cultivo da cana-de-açúcar, a alta produtividade dessa commodity e o conhecimento da tecnologia de produção. O principal objetivo dessa dissertação é analisar o papel do Brasil no
mercado mundial de biocombustíveis e identificar as implicações causadas pelas políticas de combustíveis renováveis de regiões como Estados Unidos e União Europeia. Para esse fim, foi construído um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável a partir do Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), denominado GTAP-BIOBR. Nesse modelo estão desagregados os setores de biocombustíveis o que favorece a análise do comércio de etanol da cana, que tem como principal produtor o Brasil. A estratégia de análise empregada foi de simular três cenários com choques nas exportações brasileiras de etanol para os Estados Unidos e União Europeia no ano de 2020. Os resultados revelam que a produção de etanol no Brasil cresceria em todas as situações, acompanhado do crescimento do nível de atividade econômica. Por outro lado, o preço do etanol da cana sofreria uma queda e ocorreria perda de bem-estar econômico no país em consequência da piora dos termos de troca. / The worsening effects of global warming, the volatility of oil prices and the concern about energy security are issues that contribute to increasing incentives for the production of biofuels and the development of related policies. Since the 2000’s, regions such as the United States and the European Union have launched the biofuel mandates, policies that set targets for consumption and production of renewable fuels by the year 2020. The growth of domestic demand is not accompanied by a growth in domestic supply, thus needing to import ethanol or biodiesel. It is in this scenario that Brazil emerges as a possible supplier of ethanol to these regions because of the availability of land for the expansion of sugar cane cultivation the high productivity of this commodity and the knowledge of production technology. The main objective of this dissertation is to analyze the role of Brazil in the world biofuels market and to identify the implications caused by the renewable fuel policies of regions such as the United States and the European Union. For this purpose, a Computable General Equilibrium model was constructed from the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) called GTAP-BIOBR. In this model, the biofuels sectors are disaggregated, which favors the analysis of the sugarcane ethanol trade, whose main producer is Brazil. The analysis strategy employed was to simulate three scenarios with shocks in Brazilian ethanol exports to the United States and the European Union in the year 2020. The results show that ethanol production in Brazil would increase in all situations, accompanied by the growth of the level of economic activity. On the other hand, the price of sugarcane ethanol would suffer a fall and there would be a loss of economic welfare in the country as a result of the worsening terms of trade.
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Comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC ) for drug analysisSong, Shin Miin, shinmiin@singnet.com.sg January 2006 (has links)
Separation technologies have occupied a central role in the current practices of analytical methods used for drug analysis today. As the emphasis in contemporary drug analysis shifts towards ultra-trace concentrations, the contribution from unwanted matrix interferences takes on greater significance. In order to single out a trace substance with confidence from a rapidly expanding list of drug compounds (and their metabolites) in real complex specimens, analytical technologies must evolve to keep up with such trends. Today, the task of unambiguous identification in forensic toxicology still relies heavily upon chromatographic methods based on mass spectrometric detection, in particular GC-MS in electron ionisation (EI) mode. Although the combined informing power of (EI) GC-MS has served faithfully in a myriad of drug application studies to date, we may ask if (EI) GC-MS will remain competitive in meeting the impending needs of ultra-trace drug analysis in the fut ure? To what extent of reliability can sample clean-up strategies be used in ultra-trace analysis without risking the loss of important analytes of interest? The increasing use of tandem mass spectrometry with one-dimensional (1D) chromatographic techniques (e.g. GC-MS/MS) at its simplest, considers that single-column chromatographic analysis with mass spectrometry alone is not sufficient in providing unambiguous confirmation of the identity of any given peak, particularly when there are peak-overlap. Where the mass spectra of the individual overlapping peaks are highly similar, confounding interpretation of their identities may arise. By introducing an additional resolution element in the chromatographic domain of a 1D chromatographic system, the informing power of the analytical system can also be effectively raised by the boost in resolving power from two chromatographic elements. Thus this thesis sets out to address the analytical challenges of modern drug analysis through the application of high resolut ion comprehensive two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCeGC) to a series of representative drug studies of relevance to forensic sciences.
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Effet de la libéralisation du commerce des services en AfriqueDjiofack-Zebaze, Calvin 15 July 2008 (has links) (PDF)
Cette thèse analyse les effets d'une libéralisation du commerce de services en Afrique. Au-delà d'un chapitre introductif (chapitre 1), la thèse contient trois chapitres: le chapitre 2 analyse les déterminants du pouvoir de marché dans le secteur des télécommunications. Le troisième étudie l'impact du commerce des services sur la croissance économique en mettant l'accent sur les services de télécommunications et de finances. Le quatrième procède à la simulation de l'impact de la libéralisation des services sur la pauvreté en s'appuyant sur le cas des télécommunications au Cameroun. Les chapitres 2 et 3 sont basés sur des données agrégées de 30 pays africains entre 1997 et 2004. Ils s'appuient sur les modèles structurels et utilisent les estimations du 3SLS. Leurs principales conclusions empiriques sont les suivantes: (i) Concernant les télécommunications, l'industrie africaine est confrontée à un fort pouvoir de marché. Trois facteurs politiques semblent avoir une incidence négative sur le pouvoir de marché: les efforts unilatéraux, en termes de libéralisation (en nombre d'opérateurs) et de renforcement de la réglementation sectorielle, aussi bien que les engagements multilatéraux à libéraliser dans le cadre de l'AGCS. Toutefois, il apparaît que l'effet des contacts multi-marchés des opérateurs de télécommunications est un important facteur de renforcement des comportements de coopération et de collusion. (ii) En ce qui concerne l'effet sur la croissance, le niveau de la concurrence a un effet important sur l'accès aux services de télécommunications, qui à son tour, influence de manière significative la croissance des revenus. (iii) Dans le cas du secteur financier, la libéralisation du commerce s'avère être un important déterminant de la structure du marché, mesurée par le niveau de concentration, tandis que les indicateurs de performances sectorielles (crédit au secteur privé) apparaissent comme d'importants déterminants de la croissance. Le quatrième chapitre utilise les elasticités déterminées dans les deux précédents et adopte l'approche de micro-macro simulation pour analyser la pauvreté (Shen et Ravallion, 2004). Il se base sur la MCS camerounaise de 2001 et sur l'enquête sur les revenus de ménages camerounais en 2001 (ECAM II). Les résultats montrent que la libéralisation des télécommunications contribue à réduire la pauvreté au Cameroun, l'essentiel des gains étant généré par les effets de productivité.
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Analyse des déterminants de la criminalité dans les pays en développementPuech, Frédéric 06 December 2005 (has links) (PDF)
Le crime et la violence sont devenus une des principales préoccupations sociales dans<br />les pays en développement, particulièrement en Amérique Latine. Cette thèse étudie les<br />déterminants de la violence dans les pays en développement et essaie de comprendre comment<br />la réduire. Elle en conclut que les inégalités de revenu, la faiblesse de l'éducation et<br />l'instabilité du revenu sont les principaux facteurs de crime dans les pays en développement.<br />Le chapitre 1 propose un bilan de la littérature sur les déterminants du crime et présente<br />un modèle théorique de comportement criminel s'appuyant sur un cadre «beckerien»<br />et dans lequel le concept de privation relative est introduit. Ce chapitre discute également<br />de l'impact de l'éducation sur le crime.<br />A l'aide des techniques d'économétrie spatiale, le chapitre 2 propose des estimations<br />des déterminants des taux de criminalité. L'échantillon est une coupe transversale de<br />723 municipalités du Minas Gerais, un Etat brésilien, pour l'année 2000. Les principaux<br />résultats sont les suivants :<br />- L'éducation de base réduit de manière significative les crimes contre les personnes<br />mais pas ceux contre la propriété. Les deux types de crimes sont positivement influencés<br />par les inégalités de revenu. Cela implique que les politiques visant à réduire<br />les inégalités de revenu sont nécessaires pour réduire le crime dans cet Etat, de même<br />que des politiques visant à promouvoir l'éducation de base universelle.<br />- Il existe une autocorrélation spatiale positive des taux de criminalité municipaux.<br />Toutefois, les crimes contre la propriété se diffusent plus que ceux contre les personnes.<br />Cette caractéristique spatiale suggère que la lutte contre le crime doit concerner<br />aussi bien les périphéries que les centres urbains.<br />Le chapitre 3 étudie le problème du choix entre l'éducation publique et la police dans<br />l'optique de lutter contre le crime. L'analyse utilise un modèle d'équilibre général calculable<br />(EGC) calibré pour le Minas Gerais et incluant deux variables de crime endogènes au<br />modèle. Les principaux résultats suggèrent que les dépenses publiques d'éducation et de<br />police ont des effets négatifs comparables sur la violence mais que ces effets sont fortement<br />dépendants d'autres mesures sociales.<br />Enfin, le chapitre 4 étudie l'impact de l'instabilité macroéconomique sur la criminalité.<br />Il est supposé que cette influence provient d'anticipations déçues qui peuvent dans une<br />certaine mesure générer de la frustration et éventuellement du crime. Cette hypothèse d'un<br />effet direct de l'instabilité macroéconomique est testée pour les homicides et pour les vols<br />violents sur un panel de pays développés et en développement pour six périodes de trois<br />ans couvrant la période 1980-1997. Les résultats suggèrent un effet positif de l'instabilité<br />macroéconomique passée sur les homicides. L'instabilité accroît également les vols, mais<br />uniquement dans les pays non membres de l'OCDE, suggérant que l'effet de l'instabilité<br />dépend de l'environnement institutionnel. Ces résultats ajoutent des arguments en faveur<br />de politiques visant à réduire la vulnérabilité aux chocs macroéconomiques dans les pays<br />en développement.
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Efficiency and Robustness Issues in Complex Statistical Designs for Two-Color Microarray Experiments / Efficiency and Robustness Issues in Complex Statistical Designs for Two-Color Microarray ExperimentsLatif, Abu Hena M Mahbub-ul 09 November 2005 (has links)
No description available.
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The Empirical Hierarchical Bayes Approach for Pathway Integration and Gene-Environment Interactions in Genome-Wide Association Studies / Der empirische hierarchische Bayes Ansatz für Pathway-Integration und Gen-Umwelt Interaktionen in genomweiten AssoziationsstudienSohns, Melanie 12 July 2012 (has links)
No description available.
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Analysis of Implied Volatility Surfaces / Analyse von Impliziten VolatilitätsflächenSchnellen, Marina 04 May 2007 (has links)
No description available.
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Vliv nově syntetizovaných léčiv na elektrickou aktivitu izolovaného srdce potkana / The effect of new synthetized drugs on electrical activity of rat isolated heartKorčáková, Ivona January 2017 (has links)
This thesis deals with the influence of the newly synthesized drug on the electrical activity of the isolated heart of rat. Part of the thesis is a theoretical analysis of the use laboratory animals in experiments and ethical aspects related to the use of laboratory animals. There is also an analysis of drug testing, test substances, electrocardiography and methods used to detect and measure ECG signal. The two algorithms used for the QT interval are automated. The QT interval is the main indicator of cardiotoxicity and is considered to be the gold standard in evaluating the effect of the drug. In the practical part the ECG records obtained at the Faculty of Medicine at Masaryk University in Brno are processed. These records are dimmed manually and automatically. The manual dimming was consulted with a specialist in cardiography and statistically processed. Statistical processing served to compare with the results of the automatic ECG measurement. The algorithm is used to automate the measurement, and the results are compared with the reference points obtained from cardiology experts and manual measurement results. This work serves as a pilot study for the development and testing of a new active substance.
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