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La izquierda legal y reformista después de la Constitución de 1991 / La gauche légale et réformiste en Colombie après la Constitution de 1991Guerra Vélez, Jorge Eliecer 30 November 2011 (has links)
Ce travail rend compte des potentialités et des obstacles majeurs des principaux partis et mouvements politiques colombiens. Ces groupes seront étudiés dans le champ désigné ici comme la gauche légale et réformiste. Cette analyse concerne la période entre la rédaction de la Constitution politique de 1991, et les élections sénatoriales et présidentielle de 2010. Le travail en trois parties décrira comment ces organisations ont été les actrices prépondérantes du renforcement de la démocratie, de la consolidation d’un groupe de politiciens professionnels de la gauche, et la recherche d’une solution du conflit armé qui (symbolise la Colombie) et les causes qui le déclenchent. La première partie montre une coalition politique formée des quelques organisations de gauche, en particulier des anciennes guérillas ayant abandonné leurs armes, qui forment l’Alliance Démocratique M-19 (Alianza Democrática M-19). Il sont impliqués dans l’élaboration de la Constitution et la transformation du bipartisme historique. La deuxième partie décrit les dynamiques concernant la recherche de la Paix (comme les conversations gouvernement-FARC). Les organisations appartenant à la gauche légale et réformiste y ont joué un rôle actif, qui fait renaître entre elles les liens brisés après le fiasco de l’AD M-19. La dernière partie met en évidence comment la recherche de la paix parmi d’autres conjonctures permet l’émergence de nouvelles alliances et organisation politiques. Elles donneront naissance à une sorte de parti qui est la synthèse de tous les groupes précédents. Ce parti sera le Pole Démocratique Alternatif (Polo Democrático Alternativo ; la plus grande expérience de cette gauche jusqu’à nous jours). / This work reports on the major achievements and hurdles encountered by the principal Columbian political parties and movements; these groups will be studied within the scope of the legal and reformist Left. The analysis spans from the drafting of the political constitution of 1991 until the senatorial and presidential elections of 2010. The work is divided in three parts: how these organisations became the major actors of the reinforcement of democracy; the story of the consolidation of a group of left political professionals, seeking a solution to the armed conflict which has become the symbol of Columbia; and finally, the causes which set these events into motion. The first part shows the implication of a political coalition –the Democratic Alliance M19-composed of a sample of leftist organisations and in particular the former and now disarmed guerrillas, in the elaboration of the constitution and the transformation of the historical bipartisanship. The second part shows the impulse given in part by the quest for peace (for example the talks between the government and the FARC). The movements connected with the legal reformist Left, played once again an active part which revived among them the ties distended after the fiasco of the ADM19. The last part underlines how the quest for peace, among other factors, allowed the forthcoming of new coalition and political organisations. They later give birth to a kind of party which is the synthesis of all the earlier groups. This party became the Democratic Alternative Pole (Polo Democrático Alternativo),the most important experience of the Columbian Left up to now.
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October elections: a recipe for conflict? / Students for a Democratic FutureNational Union of South African Students January 1988 (has links)
On October 26 1988, for the first time in the country’s history, South Africans of all races will be expected to go to the polls to elect their local government representatives. Never before have these elections been held together on the same day. That is about all that is historically "new" about the coming local authority elections. Yet to the government, the forthcoming municipal elections are all-important. So much so, that it is now an offense to call on people to boycott the elections. This booklet will attempt to find some explanations for why the coming municipal elections are so important to the government. How do they fit into the National Party’s political plans for the country and, most importantly, how do the majority of politically unrepresented South Africans view the elections and the structures of local government?
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選舉威權下的民主倒退: 香港回歸後政權鞏固及精英籠絡工程. / 香港回歸後政權鞏固及精英籠絡工程 / Xuan ju wei quan xia de min zhu dao tui: Xianggang hui gui hou zheng quan gong gu ji jing ying long luo gong cheng. / Xianggang hui gui hou zheng quan gong gu ji jing ying long luo gong chengJanuary 2015 (has links)
《基本法》雖然承諾香港循序漸進達致行政和立法機關雙普選,但回歸至今,民主政制不單停滯不前,更有倒退跡象。儘管制度沒有很大變遷,北京政府多次以不同理由拖延民主改革訴求,但親政府陣營卻逐漸擴大組織力量,降低反對派的挑戰可能,使選舉制度的競爭性降低。 / 本文旨在探討,威權政府下舉行的選舉,究竟是促進、還是阻礙民主轉型。一般威權政府下的選舉並不穩定,反對派有可能透過不斷舉行的選舉挑戰政權,推動民主轉型。香港卻恰恰相反,反對派的不但分裂,動員能力亦逐漸降低。本文希望證明,威權主義下的選舉不一定對反對派有利,只要政權能夠鞏固選舉能力,籠絡不同社會界別孤立反對勢力,足以使反對派難以透過直接選舉推動民主。重複選舉亦不一定為反對派帶來好處,長年處於選舉威權,不但使反對派的動員能力降低,也會因策略分歧而導致路線之爭,形成轉型疲勞的局面。 / 研究分為三部分,第一部分將檢視回歸以來選舉制度的變遷及結果,說明回歸後的選舉制度,越來越不利反對派生存。第二、三部分將探討回歸後親政府陣營及反對派的發展,當親政府陣營擴張及善理主從網絡,反對派則逐漸分裂,甚至因策略分歧互相攻訐,使反對派從選舉獲得的資源和挑戰政權的機會越來越少。 / Basic Law has stipulated that Hong Kong will have universal suffrage gradually for legislative and executive branch. Despite that, after the handover from Britain, Chinese government has deferred democratization and suppressed opposition's urge. Besides, the pro-government coalition has established hegemony in electoral arena, which is impossible for opposition to compete with. The competitiveness of the stunned electoral politics has been further decreased. / This article aimed to discuss whether the election hold under electoral authoritarianism is beneficial to democratization. According to hybrid regime researches, continuing elections, despite partially, create opportunities for oppositions to challenge the ruling coalition and install democratic virtues. Hong Kong is suffering from another way. Decreasing mobilization power, splitting opposition forces has shadowed democratic movement. The article aimed to suggest that provided the ruling coalition has ability to increase mobilization power and co-opting political elites, opposition loses opportunity structure to implement democratic process. They have to encounter demobilization and internal struggle within transition fatigue environment. / There are three parts in the research. Firstly, I evaluate electoral reform and the result of repeating elections after handover. It is suggested that opposition becomes difficult to survive. The second and third sections would discuss the development of ruling elite and opposition from 1997-2012. When the ruling elite expands their patron-client relationships, opposition encounters splitting and internal struggles. The resource and chances to challenge the regime has been also decreased. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / Detailed summary in vernacular field only. / 區諾軒. / Thesis (M.Phil.) Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2015. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 181-191). / Abstracts in English and Chinese. / Ou Nuoxuan.
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The 1985 district board election in Hong Kong: a geographical perspective.January 1986 (has links)
by Chan Chiu-hong, Andrew. / Thesis (M.Ph.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 1986. / Bibliography: leaves 311-358.
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政黨與選舉新聞框架: 香港一九九四至九五年選舉探討. / Zheng dang yu xuan ju xin wen kuang jia: Xianggang yi jiu jiu si zhi jiu wu nian xuan ju tan tao.January 1997 (has links)
作者黃嘉莉. / 論文(碩士) -- 香港中文大學新聞與傳播學系, 1997. / 參考文獻: leaves [1-7] (3rd group) / zuo zhe Huang Jiali. / Chapter 一、 --- 引言 --- p.1 / Chapter 1.1 --- 硏究動機與目的 / Chapter 1.2 --- 過渡期香港的政黨政治與傳媒互動 / Chapter 1.3 --- 硏究提問及取向 / Chapter 1.4 --- 從框架理論看傳媒主導的博奕狀態 / Chapter 1.5 --- 論文硏究結構 / Chapter 2.1 --- 香港政治社會變遷與組織力量的崛起 --- p.7 / Chapter ´Ø --- 戰後至七十年代一一確立利益團體的群眾基礎: 由殖民行政統治至開放政治參與度 / Chapter ´Ø --- 八十年代一一政制轉型新局面: 政治市場的力量分佈,整合與重組 / Chapter ´Ø --- 九十年代一一政黨政治新生面貌:正統政黨的合成班子 / Chapter 2.2 --- 政黨組織的策略性角色 / Chapter 2.3 --- ´ؤ九九一立法局直選的衝擊:政_競爭、意識形態兩極化 / Chapter 2.4 --- 北京介定局勢的均衡-由三黨鼎足至親中、民主陣營的兩極化鋪陳 / Chapter 2.5 --- 政黨與傳媒的契合-政黨政治合法化 / Chapter 三、 --- 理論與文獻探討 --- p.18 / Chapter 3.1 --- 傳媒與社會的本質關聯 / Chapter ´Ø --- 政黨和傳媒的關係:階級層次上 意識形態立場取向 組織特質與資源 / Chapter 3.2 --- 權力關係透視 / Chapter ´Ø --- 從市場模式看媒介社會學 / Chapter ´Ø --- 引用操縱模式解釋媒介內容的約制 / Chapter 3.3 --- 從權力、資源、依附關係看黨與媒介的互動 / Chapter ´Ø --- 以傳播媒介主導的資訊社會 / Chapter ´Ø --- 政黨的策略性回應一一商討過程 / Chapter 3.4 --- 框架理論之應用 / Chapter ´Ø --- 框架理論源流演變 / Chapter ´Ø --- 新聞框架的功能定義 / Chapter ´Ø --- 新聞框架的競爭性發展 / Chapter ´Ø --- 釐定新聞框架的演變途徑 / Chapter ´Ø --- 框架構成的因由 / Chapter 四、 --- 理論架構及槪念假設 --- p.30 / Chapter 4.1 --- 新聞框架的槪念定義 / Chapter 4.2 --- 新聞框架與政黨議題的動態關聯 / Chapter 4.3 --- 硏究槪念定義 / Chapter ´Ø --- 政黨方面 / Chapter ´Ø --- 傳播媒介方面 / Chapter ´Ø --- 互動結果及意義 / Chapter 4.4 --- 硏究類目:政黨預期框架策略的標示 / Chapter 4.5 --- 分析步驟及程序 / Chapter 4.6 --- 訪談類目 / Chapter 五、 --- 文本分析一比較兩個政黨與新聞媒體的微觀互動 --- p.45 / Chapter 5.1 --- 從政黨的社會、政治、媒介地位,察看其被框架定型的格局 / Chapter ´Ø --- 民主黨對民建聯 / Chapter ´Ø --- 對社會重視資訊的控制 / Chapter ´Ø --- 人力經濟資源 / Chapter ´Ø --- 與政府機構要員正式或非正式聯繫 / Chapter ´Ø --- 資訊控制 / Chapter ´Ø --- 傳播策略 / Chapter ´Ø --- 傳播目標 / Chapter ´Ø --- 框架排放孔道 / Chapter 5.2 --- 記者對政黨框架策略的應對:兩極化的鋪陳 / Chapter 5.3 --- 報章新聞框架的鑑定及歸納基模 / Chapter 5.4 --- 民主黨的新聞框架 / Chapter ´Ø --- 論調轉¨¬ت之虞 / Chapter ´Ø --- 違紀退黨正常化 / Chapter ´Ø --- 內部分裂框架成爲黨員爭拗角力場 / Chapter ´Ø --- 黨的內憂外患 / Chapter ´Ø --- 處於溝通困境框架的民主黨 / Chapter ´Ø --- 黨領袖層獨裁框架 / Chapter ´Ø --- 黨內口徑矛盾化 / Chapter ´Ø --- 小結 / Chapter 5.5 --- 民建聯的新聞框架 / Chapter ´Ø --- 飛躍進步框架的鋪排 / Chapter ´Ø --- 口徑齊一化 / Chapter ´Ø --- 正名鎭壓:違黨事件乖離化 / Chapter ´Ø --- 花絮式話題框架 / Chapter ´Ø --- 利好溝通框架滲進傳媒版面 / Chapter 5.6 --- 小結硏究假設之印證 / Chapter 六、 --- 分析及討論 --- p.72 / Chapter 6.1 --- 政黨資源組織策略部署一結構分析 / Chapter 6.2 --- 民主黨 / Chapter ´Ø --- 議會政治:黨人與記者的交流互動 / Chapter ´Ø --- 攻陷新聞作業的常規 / Chapter ´Ø --- 民主黨扮演消息發放的角色 / Chapter ´Ø --- 全新形勢看兩者關係:記者對民主黨的期望 / Chapter ´Ø --- 面對政敵及媒介的指控:民主黨依仗「危機框架」借力 / Chapter ´Ø --- 傳媒對民主黨持有的雙重標準 / Chapter ´Ø --- 黨人看記者的另一種態度 / Chapter ´Ø --- 小結:化弱爲強一一處理新聞框架的相應策略(危機感效應) / Chapter 6.3 --- 民建聯的崛起:憑組織戰喚起傳媒重視 / Chapter ´Ø --- 黨的傳播目標及策略 / Chapter ´Ø --- 四個框架發展空間:建黨特質 財政方面 組織資源一鐵票理論 中方介入一新華社的角色 / Chapter ´Ø --- 運用組織資源淨化不利因素 / Chapter ´Ø --- 力陳「親中」政治資本,建立知名度 / Chapter ´Ø --- 媒介策略的成效評估 / Chapter ´Ø --- 民建聯談組織、功績加包裝的「雙重勤勞」 / Chapter ´Ø --- 親中特色黨派與傳媒意識形態的矛盾 / Chapter ´Ø --- 組織傳播特質與傳媒的利害關係 / Chapter ´Ø --- 小結 / Chapter 6.5 --- 政黨、傳媒的低度結合:香港的特殊性 / Chapter ´Ø --- 政黨支配傳媒的局限 / Chapter ´Ø --- 採訪、報道行規的拉力 / Chapter ´Ø --- 賽馬式新聞報道與新聞從業員的作業取向 / Chapter ´Ø --- 記者個人預設的世界觀 / Chapter ´Ø --- 記者與行內參考群的互動協商 / Chapter ´Ø --- 傳媒與黨以外的框架設定因素 / Chapter ´Ø --- 小結:宏觀情境因素「中方介入」與「民意方向」干預新聞框架的生態 / Chapter 七、 --- 結論:硏究回應及啓示 --- p.102 / Chapter 八、 --- 參考書目 --- p.107
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MEASURING GAINS AND LOSSES OF DEMOCRATS AND REPUBLICANS IN CONGRESSIONAL ELECTIONSFlavin, Michael John, 1942- January 1977 (has links)
No description available.
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Rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumas Lietuvos savivaldybių tarybų rinkimuose 1995–2011 metais / Electoral volatility in Lithuanian municipal council elections, 1995–2011Jastramskis, Mažvydas, JASTRAMSKIS, MAŽVYDAS 25 September 2013 (has links)
Šios disertacijos tikslas yra ištirti ir paaiškinti rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo skirtumus rinkimuose į savivaldybių tarybas tarp Lietuvos savivaldybių. Tiriami visi nuo Lietuvos nepriklausomybės atkūrimo vykę demokratiniai savivaldos rinkimai (iš viso šeši rinkimai nuo 1995 m. iki 2011 m.). Disertacijoje remiamasi visais svarbiausiais teoriniais rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aiškinimais: sociostruktūra, ekonominis balsavimas, partinė sistema ir instituciniai-kontekstiniai veiksniai. Kai kurios teorijos yra modifikuojamos tam, kad jas būtų galima naudoti Lietuvos savivaldos rinkimų kontekste. Disertacijoje siūloma partinių sistemų klasifikacija pagal partijų koalicinio elgesio šablonus ilgajame laikotarpyje, įgalinanti atskirti partines sistemas Lietuvos savivaldybių tarybose. Empirinis tyrimas remiasi kiekybiniais (statistiniais metodais): aprašomoji statistika, ryšio matai, neparametriniai populiacijų skirtingumo matai ir tiesinė regresinė analizė. Empirinėje analizėje naudojami trys priklausomi kintamieji, kurie atitinka tris rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aspektus: bendras rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumas, išorinis nestabilumas ir savivaldybėje dominuojančios (mero) partijos balsų pokytis. Disertacijoje atrandama kad šie trys rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aspektai yra veikiami įvairių veiksnių: kultūrinio heterogeniškumo (didina rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumą), partijų pasiūlos, atitikimo tarp vietos ir nacionalinės partinių sistemų, rinkiminio aktyvumo (įtaka susilpnėja nuo 2002 m.), partinės narystės... [toliau žr. visą tekstą] / The aim of this dissertation is to analyze and explain the variance of electoral volatility between the Lithuanian municipalities. All local elections held since the restoration of Lithuania’s independence are analyzed (a total of six elections from 1995–2011). Dissertation is based on all the principal theoretical explanations of electoral volatility: sociostructural theory, economic voting, party system and institutional-contextual factors. Some theories are modified in order for them to be used in the context of Lithuanian local elections. Dissertation also proposes a four-fold party system classification that allows discerning different long-term coalitional patterns in Lithuanian municipal councils. The empirical investigation relies on quantitative (statistical) methods: descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, non-parametric tests of population comparison and ordinary least squares regression. Three dependent variables (facets of electoral volatility) are used in the empirical analysis: total electoral volatility, extra-systemic volatility and vote share stability of a municipality’s dominant (mayor’s) party. It is found in the dissertation that these three facets of electoral volatility are influenced by various factors: cultural heterogeneity (increases electoral volatility), supply of parties, the correspondence between local and national party systems, electoral turnout (influence weakens since 2002), party membership density (influence not stable)... [to full text]
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Electoral volatility in Lithuanian municipal council elections, 1995–2011 / Rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumas Lietuvos savivaldybių tarybų rinkimuose 1995–2011 metaisJastramskis, Mažvydas, JASTRAMSKIS, MAŽVYDAS 25 September 2013 (has links)
The aim of this dissertation is to analyze and explain the variance of electoral volatility between the Lithuanian municipalities. All local elections held since the restoration of Lithuania’s independence are analyzed (a total of six elections from 1995–2011). Dissertation is based on all the principal theoretical explanations of electoral volatility: sociostructural theory, economic voting, party system and institutional-contextual factors. Some theories are modified in order for them to be used in the context of Lithuanian local elections. Dissertation also proposes a four-fold party system classification that allows discerning different long-term coalitional patterns in Lithuanian municipal councils. The empirical investigation relies on quantitative (statistical) methods: descriptive statistics, correlation coefficients, non-parametric tests of population comparison and ordinary least squares regression. Three dependent variables (facets of electoral volatility) are used in the empirical analysis: total electoral volatility, extra-systemic volatility and vote share stability of a municipality’s dominant (mayor’s) party. It is found in the dissertation that these three facets of electoral volatility are influenced by various factors: cultural heterogeneity (increases electoral volatility), supply of parties, the correspondence between local and national party systems, electoral turnout (influence weakens since 2002), party membership density (influence not stable)... [to full text] / Šios disertacijos tikslas yra ištirti ir paaiškinti rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo skirtumus rinkimuose į savivaldybių tarybas tarp Lietuvos savivaldybių. Tiriami visi nuo Lietuvos nepriklausomybės atkūrimo vykę demokratiniai savivaldos rinkimai (iš viso šeši rinkimai nuo 1995 m. iki 2011 m.). Disertacijoje remiamasi visais svarbiausiais teoriniais rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aiškinimais: sociostruktūra, ekonominis balsavimas, partinė sistema ir instituciniai-kontekstiniai veiksniai. Kai kurios teorijos yra modifikuojamos tam, kad jas būtų galima naudoti Lietuvos savivaldos rinkimų kontekste. Disertacijoje siūloma partinių sistemų klasifikacija pagal partijų koalicinio elgesio šablonus ilgajame laikotarpyje, įgalinanti atskirti partines sistemas Lietuvos savivaldybių tarybose. Empirinis tyrimas remiasi kiekybiniais (statistiniais metodais): aprašomoji statistika, ryšio matai, neparametriniai populiacijų skirtingumo matai ir tiesinė regresinė analizė. Empirinėje analizėje naudojami trys priklausomi kintamieji, kurie atitinka tris rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aspektus: bendras rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumas, išorinis nestabilumas ir savivaldybėje dominuojančios (mero) partijos balsų pokytis. Disertacijoje atrandama kad šie trys rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumo aspektai yra veikiami įvairių veiksnių: kultūrinio heterogeniškumo (didina rinkėjų elgsenos kaitumą), partijų pasiūlos, atitikimo tarp vietos ir nacionalinės partinių sistemų, rinkiminio aktyvumo (įtaka susilpnėja nuo 2002 m.), partinės narystės... [toliau žr. visą tekstą]
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Electoral coordination of opposition in competitive authoritarian regime: a case of Hong Kong.January 2009 (has links)
Tang, Kin Yat Gary. / Thesis (M.Phil.)--Chinese University of Hong Kong, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references (leaves 215-231). / Abstract also in Chinese. / Table of content / TABLE OF CONTENT --- p.I / ACKNOWLEDGEMENT --- p.IV / ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS --- p.V / LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES --- p.VII / ABSTRACT --- p.IX / Chapter CHAPTER 1 --- INTRODUCTION --- p.1 / Research Background and Objective --- p.1 / Research Design --- p.4 / Research Significance --- p.5 / Plan of Dissertation --- p.7 / Chapter CHAPTER 2 --- ELECTORAL COORDINATION: BACKGROUND OF FURTHER EXPLORATION --- p.9 / What is the Pro-democracy Camp? --- p.9 / Electoral Coordination in a Competitive Authoritarian Regime --- p.13 / Literature Review: Factors behind Performance of Electoral Coordination --- p.23 / Summary --- p.32 / Chapter CHAPTER 3 --- THEORY AND HYPOTHESES --- p.33 / What is Electoral Coordination? Conceptualization and Operationalization of Dependent Variables --- p.33 / Identifying Independent Variables --- p.38 / Further Analytical Dimensions --- p.47 / Research Method --- p.51 / Summary --- p.52 / Chapter CHAPTER 4 --- 1998 & 2000 LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL ELECTIONS --- p.54 / Background of Elections --- p.54 / Candidate Lists --- p.62 / Electoral Platform --- p.64 / Practice of Vote Division --- p.68 / Election Forum at Mass Media --- p.73 / Summary --- p.81 / Chapter CHAPTER 5 --- 2004 LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL ELECTION --- p.84 / Background of Election --- p.84 / Background of Strategic Coordination --- p.90 / Strategic Coordination and Mission of The pro-democracy camp --- p.92 / Decision-Making Mechanism of Strategic Coordination --- p.94 / Result of Strategic Coordination --- p.95 / Summary --- p.122 / Chapter CHAPTER 6 --- 2008 LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL ELECTION --- p.125 / Background of Election --- p.125 / Candidate Lists --- p.133 / Electoral Platforms --- p.136 / Practice of Vote Division --- p.141 / Electoral Forum in Mass Media --- p.144 / Dispute about Support of Anson Chan --- p.152 / Summary --- p.153 / Chapter CHAPTER 7 --- ILLUSTRATION FROM CASE STUDIES --- p.156 / Observation of Electoral Coordination of The pro-democracy camp --- p.156 / Factors Constitutes to the Variation of Level of Electoral Coordination: An Evaluation --- p.165 / Further Analytical Dimensions --- p.177 / Summary --- p.185 / Chapter CHAPTER 8 --- CONCLUSION --- p.187 / Key Concepts of the Research: A Short Review --- p.188 / Electoral Coordination of the pro-democracy camp: Summary of the Story --- p.189 / Research Implication and Further Discussion --- p.196 / Research Limitations and Insight for Further Research --- p.199 / APPENDICES --- p.203 / BIBLIOGRAPHY --- p.215
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Respecification of Factors Affecting Vote Turnout: A Test of Three Competing ModelsMcClure, David Lawson 12 1900 (has links)
This study tests hypothesized causal relationships between predictor variables and voter turnout. Attention is focused on the psychological and attitudinal dimensions of turnout. Using data from the 1980 National Election Study of the Center for Political Studies, recursive and nonrecursive causal models are constructed to test the effects of election specific factors, social psychological factors, and rational choice based factors on voter turnout. Self-reported turnout is used as the primary dependent variable in all models. Validity tests support use, despite acknowledged limitations.
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