This paper examines the correlation between credit intermediated by financial systems and economic growth in developing countries. More specifically we have studied whether well-functioning financial markets result in economic growth. We base our study on data from 53 low- and lower-middle income countries in the period 2004-2011. By comparing the two different economic theories, Schumpeter’s growth theory and Austrian business cycle theory, we have analysed our results from two different perspectives. The results from this study show an insignificant relationship between financial systems and economic growth, contradicting much of the theory and results from previous studies that have been reviewed. Other variables outside of the financial system in this study, such as economic freedom and corruption, could be a reason for the non-existent correlation between financial development and economic growth in this study.

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of the economic crises and the post-crisis programs based on the experiences of Argentina, Indonesia and Turkey. For this purpose, main socioeconomic indicators of these countries are analyzed for the 1990-2002 period by utilizing the before-after methodology. The comparative analysis of the results shows that significant deteriorations in the socioeconomic indicators of these countries had occurred in the crisis periods. In addition, the social policy components of post-crisis programs of these countries are analyzed. In this regard, it is found that the governments and the BWIs are more likely to incorporate active social policy measures, which would mitigate the negative socioeconomic effects of the crises on the households, into the post-crisis programs under the presence of significant public pressure emanating from social protests.

This dissertation examines three distinctive issues that concern the regulators and policy makers in the development of financial markets. It contains three stand-alone research projects within the context of law, finance and economic growth. Chapter 2 examines the dynamic relationship between banks and economic growth from the points of view of market efficiency and asset pricing theory. Publicly traded banks are broadly representative of a country???s banking sector, so that banking industry stock prices will broadly reflect the performance of a country???s banking sector. Because previous research has established that the institutional framework, as well as the aggregate size, of the banking sector can significantly affect economic growth, this chapter investigates whether the stock returns on a country???s banking sector contain information about future economic growth, and whether the specific country and institutional characteristics that affect the functioning of the banking system and market efficiency also influence this relationship. Using the data from 18 developed and 18 emerging markets, the chapter finds a significant and positive relationship between bank excess return and future economic growth in both the time-series and panel analyses. The chapter also finds that this positive relationship is significantly strengthened by the enforcement of insider trading law, by banking crises, by bank disclosure regulations and financial development, but is weakened by government ownership of banks. Chapter 3 investigates the role of bank idiosyncratic volatility in economic growth and systemic banking crises. Using the same dataset from Chapter 2, this chapter finds an ambiguous relationship between bank volatility and economic growth in the time-series studies, which suggests that the effect of bank volatility on economic growth is more country-specific. In the panel analyses, the chapter finds a negative but very weak relationship between bank volatility and future economic growth. This negative relationship is magnified by banking crises and bank disclosure standards, but is alleviated by the government ownership of banks, the enforcement of insider trading law and financial development. The chapter goes further to examine whether bank volatility leads to the occurrence of systemic banking crises, and finds that the marginal effect of bank volatility on the probability of banking crises is very weak for the sample of all markets, and this result is mainly driven by the data from the emerging markets. However, bank volatility is a significant predictor of banking crises even after being controlled for macroeconomic indicators, which implies that market forces are more powerful in promoting the soundness of the banking system in developed markets. We also find that those macroeconomic and banking risk management indicators have different impacts on the probability of banking crises for the emerging and developed markets. Therefore, caution needs to be taken in interpreting the cross-country results of the studies on banking crises. Chapter 4 studies the corporate governance issues in China, a significant developing country that has been neglected by the current law and finance literature. Incorporated with the legal environment and ownership structure of China???s listed companies, the chapter develops a simple game model to study a neglected aspect of current corporate governance literature: the expropriation arising from the mixture of weak investor protection, ownership concentration coexisting with ownership dispersion, and the absence of a controlling shareholder. The last two chapters find that government ownership undermines the positive link between bank excess return and economic growth, but alleviates the negative impact of bank volatility on growth as well. This chapter shows that government ownership is also a two-edged sword in corporate governance in China: it leads to a double-agency problem; however, the strong legal protection of State assets also increases the cost of expropriation. Using the data from 1996 to 2003, the chapter finds the empirical evidence consistent with the model. By analysing the puzzles in China???s stock market, the chapter suggests that improving the legal protection of investors is the key issue in the future development of the financial market.

Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Handelshögsk., 2003. / Härtill 4 uppsatser.

Zugl.: Diss. Univ. Duisburg-Essen, 2006.

Ο ρόλος του εμπορίου στην οικονομία και τα οφέλη που επιφέρει είναι σχεδόν τόσο παλιά, όσο και η ίδια η οικονομική επιστήμη. Τις τελευταίες δεκαετίες ο ρόλος της απελευθέρωσης του εμπορίου και τα υποθετικά οφέλη που προκύπτουν από αυτό επεκτάθηκε και θεωρείται ένας από τους επιταχυντές της οικονομικής μεγέθυνσης, αλλά και πρωταρχική πηγή σύγκλισης των οικονομιών των κρατών. Μετά το 2ο παγκόσμιο πόλεμο η σταδιακή απελευθέρωση των αγορών και πρόσφατα το «δόγμα» της παγκοσμιοποίησης άνοιξε νέους ορίζοντες στο διεθνές εμπόριο και προώθησε την δημιουργία εμπορικών συνασπισμών μεταξύ των χωρών παγκοσμίως. Σε μια εν δυνάμει παγκόσμια αρένα συναλλαγών η γνώση για την επιρροή που μπορεί να ασκήσει στην προώθηση της οικονομικής μεγέθυνσης αποτελεί κρίσιμο ζήτημα. Παρά τη μεγάλη προσπάθεια που έχει αφιερωθεί στη μελέτη του ζητήματος, υπάρχουν λίγα πειστικά στοιχεία σχετικά με την επίδραση του εμπορικού ανοίγματος στο εισόδημα των κρατών και στη σύγκλιση της οικονομικής τους μεγέθυνσης. Η παρούσα διατριβή έχει ως θεματικό πυρήνα τη διερεύνηση της επίδρασης που είχε η Σύνοδος της Βαρκελώνης το 1995, στη σύγκλιση της οικονομικής μεγέθυνσης των χωρών της λεκάνης της Μεσογείου. Για τον έλεγχο της ύπαρξης της σύγκλισης αρχικά εφαρμόστηκαν οι έλεγχοι του Dickey-Fuller και Philips-Perron. Κατόπιν στα πλαίσια της ενδογενούς θεωρίας υιοθετήθηκε η ανάλυση με πάνελ παρατηρήσεις. Τα αποτελέσματα ανέδειξαν την παρουσία σύγκλισης μετά τη σύνοδο και με την μεταβλητή του εμπορικού ανοίγματος να συμβάλει σημαντικά. / The role of commerce in economy and the benefits incurred by it, are almost as old as the science of economy itself. Over the last decades, the role of free trade police and the potential benefits of it expanded and this considered to be one of the main factor of economic growth as well as the primary source of convergence of the economies of nations. After the second world war, the gradual free trade policy and recently the “dogma” of globalization opened new horizons in the international commerce and encouraged the establishment of commercial coalitions between countries worldwide. In an existing global arena of transactions, the insight on the influence it can exert in promoting the economic development, remains a crucial matter. In spite of the great effort given on the study of the issue, there is little convincing evidence for the influence of the trade gap concerning the income of nations and the convergence of the economic development. The present dissertation has its thematic core on the study of the influence which the Barcelona summit had in 1985 on the convergence of the economic growth of the Mediterranean countries. To ensure the existence of this convergence initially Dickey – Fuller’ s and Phillips – Perron’s proof techniques were applicable. Then, in the scope of the endogenous theory the analysis through panel observations was adopted. The results proved the existence of convergence after the summit, with the variable of the trade gap contributing significantly.

[pt] Intermediação financeira se intensificou fortemente no Brasil entre 2002 e 2013. Este período também foi marcado por forte crescimento econômico com queda na desigualdade de renda. O objetivo deste trabalho é investigar o efeito do desenvolvimento financeiro observado no Brasil sobre crescimento econômico e desigualdade usando um modelo dinâmico de escolha ocupacional com fricções financeiras. No modelo, agentes com riqueza e habilidades distintas tomam decisões de trabalhar ou empreender, mas são sujeitos a restrições de crédito que distorcem a alocação de fatores. Nossos resultados indicam um aumento de 15 por cento no PIB per capita e de 2 por cento na PTF, e um leve aumento na desigualdade de renda. Há um forte efeito de equilíbrio geral sobre o salário, que aumenta em 14 por cento. / [en] Financial depth surged in Brazil during the mid-2000s, largely as a result from institutional reforms. At the same time, the country experienced strong economic growth with decreasing income inequality. The objective of this work is to gain perspective on the effects of this financial development on growth and distribution at the national level. We do this through the lens of a dynamic model with financial frictions, in which agents who differ in their wealth and abilities as workers and entrepreneurs make occupational and productive choices under credit constraints. We calibrate the model to replicate the financial deepening observed in Brazil from 2003 to 2012. Our main results indicate that GDP per capita increases by 15 percent and TFP by 2 per cent. Workers benefit indirectly as wages rise by 14 percent in equilibrium. Yet, income inequality slightly increases.

O presente trabalho discute como uma mudança de paradigma econômico pode contribuir para uma economia ecologicamente responsável. Em linha com esse propósito num primeiro momento são apresentados os sinais da necessidade dessa mudança. Nessa primeira parte são apresentadas algumas das insuficiências das ferramentas econômicas tradicionais para uma harmonização com o meio ambiente. Num segundo momento são discutidas ideias alternativas para a abordagem da relação entre crescimento econômico e meio ambiente: economia e entropia, estado estacionário e prosperidade sem crescimento. Nessas discussões foi dada ênfase aos estudos dos economistas Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, Herman Daly e Timothy Jackson. Na parte seguinte são discutidas as implicações éticas para o desenvolvimento de um modelo econômico ecologicamente responsável. Por fim, por meio do estudo da Comissão Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi, do Índice de Progresso Social e de Índices de Felicidade argumenta-se como novas medidas de desenvolvimento econômico, social e ambiental podem contribuir para um paradigma econômico ecologicamente responsável. / This study discuss how a change of economic paradigm could contribute to an environmentally responsible economy. In order to do this, at first, the signs of the need for this paradigm shift are presented. On this matter the shortcomings of traditional economic tools for harmonization with the environment are analysed. Secondly, alternative ideias to address the relationship between economic growth and the environment, such as economy and entropy, steady state, and prosperity without growth are discussed. In these discussions the studies of economists like Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, Herman Daly and Timothy Jackson, are emphasized. In the next part of this study the ethical implications for the development of an environmentally responsible economic model are approached. Finally, through the study of the Stiglitz-Sen-Fitoussi Comssion, the Social Progress Index and Happiness Index, it is shown how new measures of economic, social and environmental development could contribute to an environmentally responsible economic paradigm.

A importância do investimento em capital humano para o crescimento econômico de um país foi o que motivou esta dissertação. Procuramos explicá-lo analisando a eficácia na utilização da verba do Programa Nacional de Assistência Estudantil (PNAES), através do desempenho acadêmico dos estudantes. Inicialmente, apresentamos uma revisão de alguns modelos desenvolvidos para explicar o crescimento econômico e após, incluímos a visão dos economistas Adam Smith e Alfred Marshall sobre a relação entre crescimento econômico e educação. A Teoria do Capital Humano nas visões de Theodore Schultz, Gary Becker e Jacob Mincer foi apresentada e comentamos a influência do nível de educação no crescimento econômico e as externalidades positivas da educação. Através de uma perspectiva histórica, mostramos como a educação superior foi expandindo ao longo dos anos e, através de pesquisa documental, apresentamos as mais recentes políticas públicas educacionais para o ensino superior no Brasil. Abordamos amplamente o PNAES e sua aplicação na Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). Foi realizada a análise dos dados da pesquisa, através do teste t-Student para duas amostras independentes, com o propósito de verificar se as ações motivadas pelo PNAES têm garantido igualdade de condições entre os estudantes em vulnerabilidade socioeconômica e que são beneficiários do PNAES e os demais estudantes. Optamos por utilizar a Taxa de Integralização Média (TIM) do curso e a do estudante para avaliar o desempenho acadêmico. Concluímos que o PNAES foi parcialmente eficaz quando comparamos o desempenho acadêmico dos estudantes de graduação da UFRGS: beneficiados e não beneficiados, cujas médias das TIMs percentuais não são iguais, mas os dois grupos apresentaram uma média da TIM percentual superior a 50% da média da TIM dos respectivos cursos, evidenciando que os estudantes vão conseguir concluir o seu curso no tempo máximo permitido pela Universidade. No grupo de estudantes que ingressaram na modalidade baixa renda, os dados evidenciaram que o PNAES está sendo eficaz porque não existe igualdade entre as médias das taxas percentuais e, também, observamos que os estudantes que solicitaram os benefícios apresentam, na média, taxas maiores do que os demais. Recomendamos a realização de estudos detalhados do desempenho acadêmico por curso, o acompanhamento pedagógico aos estudantes beneficiados, a manutenção de banco de dados atualizado e a avaliação permanente do PNAES por meio de indicadores de monitoramento. / The importance of investment in human capital for the economic growth of a country was the motivation for this thesis. We attempt to explain this by analyzing the efficacy in the use of the National Program of Student Assistance (PNAES) through the analysis of the academic performance of students. We begin by showing a review of some models developed to explain the economic growth. Then, we introduce the views of the economists Adam Smith and Alfred Marshall on the relation between economic growth and education. We then present the Human Capital Theory from the viewpoints of Theodore Schultz, Gary Becker and Jacob Mincer and comment on the influence of the level of education on the economic growth and the positive externalities of education. Next, we use a historical perspective to demonstrate how higher education has expanded over the years, and we use documentary research to present the most recent affirmative actions in higher education in Brazil. We approach in detail the application of PNAES at Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (UFRGS). We used Student's t-test for the data analysis of two independent samples in order to verify if the actions encouraged by PNAES have been assuring equal conditions among regular students and students who face social economic vulnerability and are beneficiaries of PNAES. We use the course and the student's Average Completion Rates (TIM) to evaluate academic performance. Based on the comparison between students of higher education at UFRGS who are beneficiaries of PNAES and students who are not beneficiaries of PNAES, we concluded that PNAES was partially effective. The percentage TIMs are not the same for the two groups, but both have percentage TIM above 50% in regards to the average TIM of the respective courses. This shows both groups of students will be able to conclude their courses within the time allowed by the university. Considering only the group of students who joined the university through the low-income modality, data show that PNAES has been effective because there is no equality between the average percentage rates. We have also noted that students who applied for the grant have, on average, higher rates than the remaining students do. We recommend the conduction of detailed studies on academic performance per course, pedagogic supervision of beneficiaries, maintenance of updated database, and permanent evaluation of PNAES with monitoring indicators.

Without doubt a well-developed financial sector is related to efficient resource allocation and growth, but there is modest consensus on the direction of that link, on the notion of what is meant by "well developed", on which subset of the financial market is crucial and thus which organisational set-up provides optimal returns for both architects and market participants alike. With sluggish growth, torn down market barriers and systemic change in the EU accession countries the direction, magnitude, sustainability, institutional set-up of the finance-growth nexus (and which), becomes one of the core issues of both macroeconomic theory and practice. This paper reviews the economic theory available, provides a well structured overview of 54 empirical studies conducted since 1964, sets the stage for constructing a data base encompassing the major three segments of financial markets (stock, bond and bank credit) and provides the methodological background for combining cross-country production function and time-series approaches in order to answer the following questions: (1) What is the direction of the finance-growth nexus, (2) which segment of the financial sector drives whatever nexus there is, and (3) what are the features of a growth supportive financial architecture. / Series: EI Working Papers / Europainstitut