Foreign trade is increasingly becoming a powerful tool when it comes to the promotion of economic growth in modern economies. This is especially so in the face of the continued rise of globalisation. In consideration of this fact, this thesis assessed the impact of foreign trade on the growth process of Namibia’s economy for the period stretching from 1990 to 2012. This main objective was further developed into primary, theoretical and empirical objectives. In order to realise these multiple objectives, two modern econometric time series techniques were employed, namely vector autoregressive (VAR) and auto-regression distributed lag (ARDL) models. Based on these two techniques, the following procedures featured during the study: Stationary tests, error correction modelling, co-integration tests, Granger causality tests, generalised impulse response functions and generalised forecast error variance decomposition. The following constitutes the main findings arising from this study: First, the study found that there is a positive relationship among the variables that were investigated. Indeed, this positive relationship suggests that the economy of Namibia can be expanded potentially by means of foreign trade. The result is also in line with economic theory. Secondly, the empirical findings also show that export, foreign direct investment and exchange rate endogenously respond to shocks in economic growth. Thirdly, economic growth itself accounted for most of the innovations that occurred during the period under consideration concerning economic growth. Fourthly, amongst the three explanatory variables used in the model, exports and foreign direct investment contributed more towards innovations in economic growth during the forecast period. Initially, exports and foreign direct investment dominated over the forecast horizon with each contributing almost an equal share of over 5 percent after 12 quarters. Thereafter, exports’ contribution relatively exceeded that of foreign direct investment. Fifthly, it is particularly important to note that the exchange rate variable made the weakest contribution towards explaining economic growth for the forecast period of 24 quarters. In consideration of the general constraints associated with this study, the thesis puts forward a number of proposals for possible further investigation by any theorist who is keen about probing the issue that the thesis investigated. The thesis considers the following as its significant contributions to the existing literature: First, this study primarily examined the relationship between exports and economic growth. By adding the effect of foreign direct investment and exchange rate to the analysis, this study became more comprehensive. This further widens the scope for policymaking for Namibia, as well as other developing economies on a similar route. Secondly, the study employed two modern econometric time series techniques, namely VAR and ARDL models in investigating the research topic under consideration. Most of the related studies that were reviewed either utilised ordinary least squares (OLS) or VAR or ARDL approach on its own. By implication, the results obtained from this study, therefore, are from a technical point of view more robust. Thirdly, through constructive comments, this thesis made valuable contributions to the relevant empirical literature as reviewed during the course of the study. Fourthly, since this study has a focus on Namibia, it provided the opportunity for the thesis to present a comprehensive analysis on issues pertaining to Namibia specifically. Lastly, the various recommendations put forward by this thesis will assist Namibia, as well as other developing countries, on a related path when it comes to formulating policies for the promotion of exports in particular and economic growth in general. / PhD (Economics)--North-West University, Vaal Triangle Campus, 2015.

Credit risk mitigation that can be applied by commercial banks in assessing the lending decision /credit risk when advances and equity investments are considered for BEE classified companies. / A research report presented to the Graduate School of Business Leadership, University of South Africa / The previous political dispensation limited black people’s participation in the South African economy. Poor credit records, lack of training, resulting in skills and capacity gaps further limited entry into the lending market. These aspects are considered the main limitations in obtaining finance for the Small, Medium and Micro Enterprises (SMMEs). This research report focuses on how credit risk can be mitigated by commercial banks in lending to Black Economic Empowerment (BEE) companies in the medium to large market. Exploratory research was conducted using various methods to achieve methodological triangulation. These methods consisted of a literature review, interviewing experts in the field and case studies. A qualitative research approach was followed. It was found that the lack of own contribution and security were still prevalent in the medium to large market, but the quality of management (little training and skills) was deemed not to be a limitation as suitable credit risk mitigants were identified. No credit risk mitigants were identified to mitigate poor credit records. It is postulated that by adopting and applying the identified credit risk mitigants, commercial banks can increase their success rate in lending to BEE companies. It will further assist in the transformation of black people and compliance with the Financial Services Charter. It is recommended that a similar study be conducted in the agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing industry. The reasons why BEE companies applications are declined could also be investigated. Further studies could also explore other external factors such as economical, legal and social that could have an influence on the funding of BEE companies.

A Research Report presented to the Graduate School of Business Leadership University of South Africa. In partial fulfilment of the requirements for the MASTERS DEGREE IN BUSINESS LEADERSHIP, UNIVERSITY OF SOUTH AFRICA / The purpose of this research is to analyse the changes in housing values in Windhoek, Namibia over the past ten years and explore links in property value variation to macroeconomic changes during that period. The objectives of this research are twofold. Firstly this research compiles and assesses the movement of housing values over the past ten years. Secondly this research assesses if there is a causal relationship between changes in macroeconomic factors and housing values, and to define the nature of this relationship. The timing and magnitude of response by housing values to changes in macroeconomic factors are investigated. The primary data requirements for this study are a monthly relative value index of housing prices for the Windhoek area and macroeconomic factors. Macroeconomic data collected relates to macroeconomic conditions within Namibia that could have an effect on housing prices. This includes information on housing supply, GDP, population levels, inflation and interest rates. The results of this study explore the relationship between these factors and changes in housing prices as reflected by changes in the housing index. The most significant result of this study is the effect of housing availability on housing values. Changes in the total supply of housing as estimated by the number of houses built in a month affect changes in housing values after 5 and 6 months. A total of 20.5% of the change in housing values can be explained by the change in total housing supply. The effect of interest rates found by this study was lower than the theory and literature reviews would have led us to expect. The results of the Pearson correlation test for the relationship between percentage changes in interest rates and percentage changes in future housing values found that a relationship exists 8 months after the change in interest rates occurred. Interest rates were found to explain 5.5% of the change in housing values 8 months later. No significant effects were noted for changes in inflation. For population and income changes there was insufficient data to perform more than a high level look at possible interactions with the level of housing prices. / Graduate School of Business Leadership / MBL

Bakgrund och problem: Mindre företag är en viktig del av Sveriges ekonomi, därmed blir frågan om mindre företags överlevnad och tillväxtproblem relevant att se till. Studien undersöker därmed hur och varför företagsstyrning utvecklas i små företag, och hur förändrad företagsstyrning förebygger ytterligare tillväxt. Syfte: Rapportens övergripande syfte är att visa på vilket sätt ett företags ekonomistyrning, organisationsstyrning och strategistyrning förändras under tillväxtprocessen, samt redogöra för de bakomliggande orsakerna till varför styrningen förändras. Studien undersöker även vilken påverkan dessa faktorer har haft på företagets tillväxt. Metod: Baserat på studiens frågeställning och syfte ansågs fallstudien vara det mest lämpade metodvalet. Därmed valdes enfallsstudien ut. Det empiriska materialet samlades in genom semistrukturerade intervjuer, med kompletterande information från ytterligare dokument och tidningsartiklar. Slutsats: Tillverkningsföretaget AD-Trä har genomgått en framgångsrik tillväxtprocess sedan början av 1990-talet. Denna studie söker att finna hur strategistyrningen, ekonomistyrningen samt organisationstyrningen har förändrats under tillväxtprocessen, samt lokalisera de bakomliggande orsakerna till varför styrningen har förändrats. / Background and problem: Small business enterprises is a substantial part of the Swedish economy, therefore is it relevant to research what makes smaller enterprises survive on the market how smaller enterprises must adapt during economic growth. This study examines how and why control systems is developed, and used, in small business enterprises and how they change during economic growth. Purpose: The overall purpose of the study is to show how a company’s management control system, organization and strategy change during economic growth, and why it changes. The study also examines the impact that these factors have on the company’s growth. Method: Based on the framing of question and the purpose of the study a case study was considered the best option, where one company was specifically selected. The empirical material was gathered through semi-structured interviews, which was supplemented with secondary documents and articles. Conclusion: The manufacturing company AD-Trä has gone through a successful period of economic growth since the beginning of the 1990s. This study examines how strategic, economic and organizational management control has changed during this growth, and also locate the reasons behind why the control systems has changed. <img src="file:///page8image14280" />

This thesis brings together a coherent and inter-linked body of research published between 2000 and 2009 on clothing manufacturing; a sector that could be labelled ‘mature’ in its phase of economic development in Western economies. It investigates why in recent decades, despite notable early resilience the clothing industry within the West Midlands Region in the UK has declined markedly, placing this decline in the context of the picture nationally and internationally. It provides an in-depth analysis of the how the sector is placed to adapt, reverse decline and enhance its competitiveness, conceptualising firm behaviour in respect of attitudes to growth and change. Finally, it prescribes strategies and actions for the sustainability of such mature manufacturing sectors within modern growth-led economies. In doing so it recognises the crucial role played by government institutions at all scales in facilitating this process.

Thesis (MBA (Graduate School of Business))--University of Stellenbosch, 2010. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This present study investigates the directional link between stock market development and economic growth in Zambia for the period 2002-2009, using quarterly data. While there is numerous empirical research conducted on this topic, none of it constitutes an in-depth study of the causal relationship of stock market development and economic growth in Zambia. The investigation of the causal relationship is conducted by using two methods: the recent and better Toda and Yamamoto Causality Test, and the older and popular Granger causality test. As highlighted by recent studies, the results of the Toda and Yamamoto Causality Test approach are more reliable than those of the Granger Causality Test approach, and are therefore preferred for this study. The Granger Causality Test is employed in the study for comparison purposes with the new Toda and Yamamoto approach, as well as comparison with the only study done on Zambia on the topic. Results of the Toda and Yamamoto approach support the demand following hypothesis that economic growth causes stock market development. The Granger Causality Test results lend support to the Independent view that stock market development and economic growth are independent of each other. The Granger Causality Test results support the prior study done on Zambia using the same technique but based on panel data instead of time series data as is the case for the present study. However, as the Granger Causality Test approach inherently has a number of problems, its results are unreliable. Based on the result of the Toda Yamamoto approach, the study argues that the Zambian stock exchange could help promote further economic growth in the country and should therefore be integrated in the whole economic system. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie ondersoek die ooreenkoms tussen aandeelmarkontwikkeling en ekonomiese groei in Zambia vir die periode 2002-2009 met die gebruik van kwartaallikse data. Die ondersoek om die verhouding te bepaal word deur twee metodes gedoen naamlik die onlangse en beter “Toda and Yamamoto” toets en die ouer en populêre “Granger” toets. Soos onlangs uitgewys is die uitslae van die “Toda and Yamamoto” toets meer akkuraat as die “Granger” toets en word derhalwe verkies vir hierdie studie. Die Granger toets word gebruik vir vergelykings met die “Toda and Yamamoto” benadering asook vergelyking met die enigste studie wat in Zambië gedoen is op hierdie vakgebied. Resultate van die Toda benadering ondersteun die stelling dat ekonomiese groei veroorsaak aandelemarkontwikkeling terwyl die Granger toets die siening dat markontwikkeling en ekonomiese groei onafhanklik van mekaar is ondersteun. Die Granger toets ondersteun die vorige studie op Zambië wat dieselfde metodiek gebruik het maar wat gebaseer is op “panel data” in plaas van tyd series data soos in die huidige studie. Die Granger studie het 'n aantal inherente probleme en die resultate is daarom onbetroubaar. Gebaseer op die Toda benadering word in die studie geargumenteer dat die Zambiese beurs verdere ekonomiese groei kan bevorder en behoort derhalwe geïntegreerd te word in die hele ekonomiese stelsel.

Thesis (MBA (Business Management))--Stellenbosch University, 2008. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This research studies the relationship between economic growth and commodity-market volatility in South Africa. The mining industry, largely supported by gold, diamonds, coal, iron ore and platinum-group metals, has played a central role in South Africa's economic development. The commodities that were selected for the study are the five major minerals, namely gold, coal, iron are, platinum-group metals and diamonds. It investigates two central questions, the first of which is whether the mining of the above commodities still makes a significant contribution to the South African economy in terms of employment, revenue and foreign-currency earning. The second is whether there is a link that reflects a statistically and economically significant association between commodity-price volatility and economic growth in South Africa. The economic environment in South Africa has been extremely positive, with a growth averaging around 5% for the period 2004-2006. An important contributing factor to this favourable environment has been the behaviour of mineral commodity prices. Mining makes a direct and indirect contribution of approximately 15% to GOP, accounts for around 50% of merchandise exports (including primary and beneficiated mineral exports), 12% of fixed investment, 30% of the market value of the JSE limited and 20% of formal-sector employment. Therefore, mining remains a key foundation of the South African economy. Time series data analysis confirms that the volatility of the major foreign currency-earning commodities - gold, platinum, coal, diamonds and iron ore - are negatively or weakly related. This relationship actually reflects the harmful effect of the volatility of these commodities on economic growth. Until recently, South Africa was heavily dependent on exports of primary commodities. Since the commodity prices are highly volatile, South Africa has to cope with large shocks, both positive and negative. Commodity cycles used to be determined by the growth cycle in the United States, but more recently, with the emergence of the Asian economies and China, in particular, the dominant influence of the United States economy on the commodity cycle has waned. The continuing instability in commodity prices and export earnings of South Africa has to be addressed by diversifying the exports towards more dynamic products; particularly manufactured goods and services. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Die verwantskap tussen ekonomiese groei in Suid-Afrika en die mynbedryf, wat hoofsaaklik ondersteun word deur goud, diamante, steenkool, ystererts en die platinumgroepmetale, het 'n sentrale rol in Suid-Afrika se ekonomiese ontwikkeling gespeel. Die kommoditeite wat vir hierdie navorsing gebruik word, is die vyf belangrikste minerale, naamlik goud, steenkool, ystererts, die platinumgroepmetale en diamante. Twee sleutelvraagstukke word hier ondersoek, waarvan die eerste dit bevraagteken of die ontginning van bogenoemde kommoditeite nog steeds 'n belangrike bydrae tot die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie lewer wat indiensneming, inkomste en buitelandse valuta betref. Tweedens word daar ondersoek of daar enige skakel is wat 'n statistiese en ekonomies betekenisvolle verwantskap tussen kommoditeitsprysonbestendigheid en die ekonomiese groei van Suid-Afrika weerspieel. Die ekonomiese omgewing in Suid-Afrika was besonder positief, met 'n groeikoers van ongeveer 5% gedurende die 2004-2006-tydperk. Die gedrag van mineraalkommoditeitspryse het 'n belangrike bydrae tot die gunstige ekonomiese omgewing gelewer. Mynwese lewer 'n direkte en indirekte bydrae van ongeveer 15% tot die algemene binnelandse produk, is verantwoordelik vir ongeveer 50% van die uitvoer van handelsware (insluitend primere en veredelde mineraaluitvoere), 12% van vaste beleggings, 30% van die markwaarde van die Johannesburgse Aandelebeurs en 20% van die werksgeleenthede in die formele sektor. Daarom is mynwese 'n sentrale deel van die Suid-Afrikaanse ekonomie. Die ontleding van tydreeksdata bevestig dat die onbestendigheid van die belangrikste kommoditeite wat buitelandse valuta verdien, naamlik goud, platinum, steenkool, diamante en ystererts, negatief of swak verwant is. Hierdie verwantskap weerspieel eerder die skadelike uitwerking van hierdie kommoditeite se onbestendigheid op ekonomiese groei. Tot onlangs was Suid-Afrika grootliks afhanklik van die uitvoer van primere kommoditeite en die pryse van hierdie kommoditeite is baie onbestendig. Suid-Afrika moes dus groot skokke, positief sowel as negatief, die hoof bied. Die groeisiklus in Amerika het in die verlede die kommoditeitsiklusse bepaal, maar meer onlangs het die Asiatiese ekonomiee en veral China die dominante invloed van ekonomiese Amerika laat afneem. Die voortdurende onstabiliteit in kommoditeitspryse en buitelandse inkomste vir Suid-Afrika moet meer aandag geniet deur uitvoere te diversifiseer na meer dinamiese produkte, veral vervaardigde produkte en dienslewering.

This paper presents a theoretical growth model that extends the Mankiw-Romer-Weil [MRW] model by accounting for technological interdependence among regional economies. Interdependence is assumed to work through spatial externalities caused by disembodied knowledge diffusion. The transition from theory to econometrics leads to a reduced-form empirical spatial Durbin model specification that explains the variation in regional levels of per worker output at steady state. A system of 198 regions across 22 European countries over the period from 1995 to 2004 is used to empirically test the model. Testing is performed by assessing the importance of cross-region technological interdependence, and measuring direct and indirect (spillover) effects of the MRW determinants on regional output. (author's abstract)

This paper presents a theoretical growth model that extends the Mankiw-Romer-Weil [MRW] model by accounting for technological interdependence among regional economies. Interdependence is assumed to work through spatial externalities caused by disembodied knowledge diffusion. The transition from theory to econometrics leads to a reduced-form empirical spatial Durbin model specification that explains the variation in regional levels of per worker output at steady state. A system of 198 regions across 22 European countries over the period from 1995 to 2004 is used to empirically test the model. Testing is performed by assessing the importance of cross-region technological interdependence, and measuring direct and indirect (spillover) effects of the MRW determinants on regional output. (author's abstract)

This dissertation consists of three essays on capital controls and exchange rate regimes. The first essay, under the background of international monetary policy trilemma, empirically investigates the validity of the proposition that holding the degree of exchange rate stability constant, a decrease in capital mobility through imposition of capital controls will enhance monetary independence. Using a panel dataset covering 88 countries for the 1995-2010 period and system GMM estimation, this paper finds that 1) capital controls help improve a country’s monetary independence; 2) the effectiveness of capital controls depends on the types of assets and the direction of flows they are imposed; 3) the choice of exchange rate regime has important impact on the effectiveness of capital controls on monetary independence. The second essay examines the role of capital controls on economic growth. Conventional wisdom suggests that allowing international capital flows improves domestic investment and growth by providing extra resources through international capital market, yet the flows can be misallocated to finance speculative or low-quality domestic investments. Using a panel dataset covering 78 countries over 1995-2009, this paper finds that 1) capital control policies promote economic growth after taking into account a country’s de facto level of capital flows; 2) controls on capital inflows helps a country’s economic growth, but not controls on outflows; 3) restrictions on different asset types affect growth differently. Capital controls on equity type flows are less effective than controls on debt type flows or direct investment. The third examines the role of exchange rate flexibility on current account balances. Global imbalances have become an important issue for economists and policy makers. Greater exchange rate flexibility is often suggested as a means to achieve faster and more efficient adjustment in the current account. However, previous empirical studies show little support for this hypothesis. This essay revisits this issue with a large panel dataset and Threshold VAR model and finds that 1) the speed of the current account adjustment is higher in a regime with greater exchange rate variability; 2) some existing popular exchange rate classifications may not capture actual exchange rate variability as well as expected.