I denna magisteruppsats undersöks eventuella långsiktiga samband mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och aktiemarknaderna i Tyskland, Storbritannien, USA och Japan. Detta sker genom en kointegrationsanalys med Engle-Grangers metod. Undersökningen omfattar åren 1992-2010 och resultaten visar inga tecken på att det skulle existera några långsiktiga samband mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och någon av de utländska aktiemarknaderna. Resultaten ger därmed indikationer om att den svenska aktiemarknaden tillsammans med de utländska aktiemarknaderna i undersökningen är kollektivt effektiva i åtminstone den svaga formen enligt Fama (1970). Då inga långsiktiga samband existerar bör även portföljdiversifiering mellan den svenska aktiemarknaden och de utländska aktiemarknaderna i undersökningen fungera effektivt på lång sikt. / In this master thesis the Engle-Granger method for cointegration analysis is used to examine long-term relationships between stock markets. The analysis is applied on Swedish stock market together with the stock markets in Germany, United Kingdom, United States and Japan. The result shows no significant signs of any form of long-term relationships between the Swedish and the foreign stock markets for the time period 1992 to 2010. The result therefore indicates that the Swedish stock market together with the foreign stock markets in the study is collectively efficient in at least the weak form according to Fama (1970). The result also indicates that portfolio diversification through investing in the Swedish stock market together with any of the foreign stock markets should be effective in the long run.

The purpose of this Bachelor thesis is to analyze if there is a correlation between stock prices and the amount of searches of the companies names on Google. The theories used in the study were Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). Regressions analysis is used as the statistical method to see if there is a significant correlation between the stock prices and the amout of searches of the company name on Google. The data used were the rate of return of three companies (ABB, Oriflame and Sandvik) on the Nasdaq OMX Nordic stock market, the rate of return of the Nasdaq OMX Nordic stock market index (OMX Stockholm_PI) and the Google search frequency from Google Trends on each company. The result showed no significance and the conclusion of the thesis is that there is no significant correlation between the three studied companies and their search frequency on the search engine Google. / Syfte: Syftet med uppsatsen är att undersöka ifall det finns ett samband mellan företags aktiekurser och sökfrekvens på företagets namn på söktjänsten Google. Data: Daglig avkastning på ABB:s, Oriflames och Sandviks aktier, Aktieindex samt Googels sökfrekvens. Teorier: Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Effektiva marknadshypotesen (EMH) Slutsats: Det råder inget signifikant samband mellan de undersökta företagens aktiekurser och deras företagsnamns sökfrekvens på söktjänsten Google.

Question: "Does the market possess perfect information as the efficient market hypothesis says?" "Is there any significant relationship between the abnormal stock return on the ex – day and the dividend?" Purpose: The purpose of this study is to enlighten and find understanding about stock return versus dividend on the ex – day and try to figure out if abnormal returns occur on the portfolio during dividends. Methodology: The study was based in a quantitative nature and was derived with an event study and a hypothesis testing. The authors investigated the thirty most traded shares on the Stockholm stock exchange during a period of five years (2005 – 2009). They were analyzed during a total of nine days; the estimation window was set to sixty days. Theory: Leading theories in this field of study have been picked to enlighten and analysis the questions of the study. Theories used: Efficient market hypothesis, agent theory and the events of dividends. Empiricism / Results: The authors made an event study and hypothesis tested the information. From the data they could see a small abnormal return on every day except the day after the ex – day. However, they could not prove a significant relationship between the stocks return and the dividend. Conclusion / Discussion: The efficient market hypothesis was strengthened in the conclusion where all new information is reflected in the stock price because the null hypothesis was accepted in all nine cases. The authors also concluded that although they have a differentiated result compared to other studies, it could be a result of the recession. Another conclusion was that the relationship between shareholders and the management has been improved because of a better spread of information.

Sammanfattning Uppsatsens titel: 2013 – Året det vårades för blankning Datum: 2013-05-21 Uppsats nivå: Kandidatuppsats i Företagsekonomi (61-90 hp) Författare: Erik Alvarado och Billy BengtssonHandledare: Sven-Ola CarlssonExaminator: Marita Blomkvist Nyckelord: Blankning, Förbud, Regleringar, Effektiva marknadsteorin, Behavioral finance, Strategi Syfte: Vårt syfte med uppsatsen är att förstå och analysera hur mäklarna samtförvaltare på svenska finansiella institut arbetar med blankning gentemotsina kunder idag. Problemformulering: Hur arbetar mäklare och förvaltare på svenska finansiella institut medblankningsaffärer åt sina kunder?Metod: Metodvalet föll på en kvalitativ studie med en induktiv ansats. Den datasom utgör empirin har samlats in genom besöks- och telefonintervjuer. Teori: I november 2012 valde regeringen att gå EU:s linje och börja följa derasförordning angående regleringar mot blankning. Detta ställer krav på attFinansinspektionen publicerar gårdagen genomförda blankningsaffärermorgonen efter. Något som lett till en mediedebatt kring att intresset förblankning kan öka, då investerare nu kan ta rygg på andra blankare.Blankning kan vara ett populärt investeringsalternativ utifrån ett flertalstrategier medan anledningarna till att blanka kan vara många. Antingen blankar investerare utifrån rationella värderingar och tillgången på informationsom finns på en effektiv marknad. Vidare kan du utgå ifrån känsloinpulser,något som kan kopplas till behavioral finance-perspektivet. Empiri: Primärdata har samlats in från fyra svenska finansiella institut: AvanzaBank, Handelsbanken, Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken och Simplicity AB. Resultat: Intresset för blankning bland de finansiella institutens kunder är relativtsvalt, något som främst beror på en lång teknisk process och höga kostnader.En slutsats som ligger helt i linje med den ledande teorin kring regleringaroch förbud mot blankning, nämligen Diamond-Verrecchia hypothesis. / Abstract Title: 2013 – Sweden, it’s time for short-selling! Date: 2013-05-21 Level: Bachelor Thesis in Business Administration (61-90 hp) Authors: Erik Alvarado and Billy BengtssonAdvisor: Sven-Ola CarlssonExaminer: Marita Blomkvist Keywords: Short-selling, Ban, Regulations, Efficient-market hypothesis, Behavioralfinance, Strategy Purpose: Our purpose with the thesis is to understand and analyze how brokers andequity managers in Swedish financial institutions working with shortsellingtowards their customers.Research question: How do brokers and equity managers at Swedish financial institutionswork with short-selling for their customers? Methodology: The thesis is based on a qualitative methodology with an inductive approach.The primary data has been collected through face-to-face interviewsas well over telephone. Theory: Since November 2012 the Swedish government is following the currentEU regulation against short-selling. The EU regulation requires that completedshort sales are published the next day on the Swedish comparison tothe U.S: Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Finansinspektionen.The new regulation his risen a debate in media, since investors now canfollow the published short sales. Short-selling can be a popular alternativefor investors, since there are many strategies that are including shortselling.However, the reasons for investors to short-sell can be many. Either the investors’ decision is rationally based on the available informationon the efficient market or they base their decisions on feeling. Financialdecision based on feelings can be explained by behavioral finance. Empiric: The primary data representing the empirical framework has been collectedfrom four Swedish financial institutions: Avanza Bank, Handelsbanken,Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken and Simplicity AB. Result: At the moment short-selling is not the most popular choice for investorswho are interested in going short. The short-selling process is at the momenttechnical difficult and costly for the investors and financial institutions.The result is in line with the leading theory of short-selling regulations,the Diamond-Verrecchia hypothesis.

The purpose of this study is to examine a completely new phenomenon called the MIST, by two portfolios: the Goldman Sachs Next 11 equity fund, and the Goldman Sachs BRIC fund, in order to establish whether or not the MIST countries are a better investment decision in terms of risk, return and growth. Furthermore, the study examines in which form these emerging markets lies in terms of market efficiency, and if the random walk theory is present. The opportunities and challenges for Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey are also brought upon to determine whether these countries have the potential to exhibit the same success as the BRIC countries did for a decade. Since the growth of the BRIC countries are slowing down, Jim O’Neill, the same founder of the term BRIC, coined the nations MIST. The BRIC countries are facing several difficulties and have led investors to draw out from these countries stocks. Investors that were pouring in money to the BRIC countries during the period 2001-2009, have from 2011, withdrawn 15 billion dollars from the BRIC stocks. Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea and Turkey. Derived from the next eleven countries, these countries have a major effect on the global economy due to their economical and political circumstances. For many investors, the MIST countries that are growing faster than the BRIC are regarded to be the new biggest emerging markets. Investing in BRIC funds are stated to be a disaster today, while on the other hand, the MIST countries are growing and outpacing the BRIC fund. The methodology used was to compare two different portfolios, Goldman Sachs N-11 equity fund in the period 2011-2013 against the Goldman Sachs BRIC fund in two different periods, 2011-2013 and 2006-2008 with S&P 500 as the market index. In addition, a hypothesis test was carried out for this period to observe whether or not to reject the null hypothesis. The results of this study shows that the null hypothesis was rejected and that the N-11 equity fund is a better investment decision, in terms of risk, return and growth today. These emerging markets are under the weak form market efficiency and the random walk theory is present in the N-11 equity fund. This makes the authors’ results more of a speculation than a definite conclusion about the future, as one cannot "beat the market".

In this thesis, we analyze premium relationship of American depositary receipts (ADR) and their underlying shares. Several researchers have previously identified the main variables influencing the construction of ADR premium of cross-listed companies. The aim of this study is to investigate to what extent the main variables affect differently the construction of ADR premium in crisis period. For the purpose of the study, two periods are defined. The period from June 2006 to October 2007 represents the non-crisis period whereas the period from October 2007 to March 2009 represents the crisis period. Our cross-listing sample consists of companies that have level II and level III ADR listed on the NYSE and the NASDAQ over the two periods. The tested variables influencing the premium are the liquidity, the currency exchange rate, the home and US market and the volatility. The liquidity is measured according to two ratios, the Amihud ratio and the turnover ratio. The currency exchange rate is the current exchange rate denominated in US dollar. The home markets are the reference indexes of the home country to which the underlying share of the ADR belong. The S&P 500 Index is used as a proxy for the US market. Finally, the US market volatility is analyzed with the CBOE VIX volatility Index. Multiple and simple OLS regressions are used to analyze the impacts of variables on ADR premium. The T-statistic is chosen to test the explanatory power of variables. The regressions are divided in three main parts. The first one is dedicated to the liquidity variables, then the second one to the home and US market, currency exchange rate and CBOE VIX volatility Index. Finally the last part keeps only the variables with the stronger explanatory power in order to define two equations of the factor influencing mostly the premium. We have found that crisis strongly modifies the relationship between ADR premium and the main variables. In crisis period, the regressions show that liquidity becomes a factor with a greater explanatory power of ADR premium. However the other main variables experience the opposite effect with a much lower T-test in times of crisis. It seems that the currency exchange rate, the home and US market as well as the volatility lose their explanatory power in times of crisis to the benefit of liquidity variables.

Syfte: Huvudsyftet med denna uppsats är att undersöka betydelsen av finansiella rapporter genom att studera aktiekursens reaktion på Stockholmsbörsen för tidpunkten när företags finansiella rapporter blir offentliga. Detta bryts ned i två delsyften; Skapar årsrapporter synbara reaktioner på svenska aktiemarknaden OMX vid tidpunkten för offentlighetsdatumet? samt följer reaktionerna på svenska aktiemarknaden årsrapporternas status? Metod: Undersökningen är uppdelad i två delar. Den första utgörs av en nyckeltalsanalys, på 81 finansiella rapporter mellan åren 1991-2009, för att fastställa rapporternas status och den senare är en eventstudie som behandlar aktieutvecklingen vid offentlighetsdatumet för rapporterna. Undersökningen har en kvantitativ ansats där empirin består av sekundärdata i form av årsredovisningar, delårsrapporter och börskursindex. Teori: Rapporten bygger på hypotesen om effektiva marknader, signalteorin samt teorin om insiderinformation. Empiri: Utav 81 undersökta rapporter var 32 stycken starka, 27 stycken svaga, och 22 stycken neutrala.  Alla rapporters eventfönster för offentliggörandet gav antingen ett positivt eller negativt AAR. Åren 1991, -99, -07, -08 och -09 fick ett positivt AAR medan åren 1992, -93, -00 och -01 fick ett negativt AAR. Varje status AAR blev 0,123 för de starka, -0,124 för de svaga och 0,011 för de neutrala. Analys/Slutsats Då en rapport offentliggörs kan en reaktion på aktiemarknaden generellt urskiljas. I majoriteten av fallen har rapporten medfört svagt positiva priseffekter vid offentliggörandet av en stark rapport, svagt negativa effekter vid en svag rapport och ingen signifikant reaktion vid en neutral rapport som inte bringar några större nyheter. Det finns dock inget statistiskt samband mellan marknadsreaktionen och rapportens status vid en korrelationsanalys. Detta kan bero på att antalet studieobjekten kan ha varit för få och avvikelserna har därmed fått ett stort inflytande på det totala resultatet. På det hela taget motsäger sig inte studien den effektiva marknadshypotesen, det skapas reaktioner av olika storlek vid offentliggörandet men för att kunna fastställa ett säkert samband mellan status och reaktioner krävs en djupare och bredare undersökning. / Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the significance of financial reports through stock market reactions when financial reports become public. This is broken down into two part purposes; do annual reports create reactions on the Swedish stock market OMX for the date of public enunciation? and does the reaction on the Swedish stock market follow the nature of the financial report? Methods: The study has two methodological aspects. The first one consists of a ratio analysis, of 81 financial reports between 1991-2009, in order to determine the report's status. The second one is an event study that deals with share developments for the time of annual reports public enunciation. The study has a quantitative approach where the empirical data consists of information from annual reports, interim reports and share price index. Theoretical: This paper relies on the efficient market hypothesis, signal theory and the theory perspectives of insider information. Empirical: Out of 81 examined annual reports 32 had a strong approach, 27 had weak and 22 had neutral. All the reports event windows for time of public enunciation had either a positive or negative AAR. The years 1991, -99, -07, -08 and -09 had a positive AAR while the years 1992, -93, -00 and -01 had a negative AAR. Every natures AAR become, 0,123 for the strong, -0,124 for the weak and 0,011 for the neutral. Conclusion When a financial report is published and becomes available to stakeholders a reaction on the stock market tends to occur. In the majority of cases the report provides positive reactions on the stock market when the underlying report is of a strong nature, negative reactions when the report is weak and no significant reaction when it is neutral. There is, however, no immediate correlation between the market reaction and the nature of the report.  This may be due to the number of research objects that can have been too few and there for have gotten an excessive influence on the overall result. Overall, the study does not contradict the efficient market hypothesis, reactions do accrue but to determine the correlation between the nature of the report and the effects on stock direction it require a deeper and wider study then this.

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the location of buying stocks in a Nordic cross-listed company matters in terms of 1) earning abnormal returns, or 2) gaining in optimizing the amount spent by buying the specific stock cheap. Nowadays, markets are becoming more integrated and if we believe in the efficient market hypothesis, prices of the same class of stocks paying the same dividend annually, of an MNC must be the same irrespective of the stock exchange it is listed upon. Though efficient market hypothesis exists in theory, market imperfection is a reality. All the Nordic (Swedish, Finnish, Norwegian, Danish and Icelandic) firms listed on foreign stock exchanges in addition to their home market have been included in the sample. In fact, this sample represents 100% of the population. The daily prices of cross-listed stocks have been analyzed and conclusions have been drawn based on the mean returns and mean prices along with Wilcoxon Signed-Rank test statistics. The data have been analyzed over the last ten years capturing the recent economic cycle. The whole period has also been divided into three sub-periods to establish comparisons with the whole period. This paper reports that even though returns on cross-listed stocks are statistically same over all periods, prices of the stocks vary according to the location of listing. That is, investors can buy from a stock exchange where the specific stock is underpriced thereby decreasing the amount invested in absolute term and optimizing the amount spent if not the return. The returns and prices have analyzed using the local currency of the MNC’s country of origin and Special Drawing Rights (SDRs). No considerable differences on the returns or pattern of price movements have been observed while using two currencies.

The fast-growing economy in China attracts the world’s interests, which includes the Chinese stock markets. The market efficiency of Chinese stock markets is widely discussed by researchers in different approaches. The involvement of government in stock markets is a unique case in the financial world.   By this paper, we are answering the question that is the degree of market efficiency of stat-owned companies different from that of private companies in Chinese stock markets. This will bring us knowledge about Chinese stock markets as well as the impact from ownership, market value and management styles on market efficiency.   To clarify the influence from government involvement in stock markets, we select 938 stocks distinguished by ownership structure. This quantitative study is preceded on daily data from 2007 to 2011. We use auto correlation, Chi-square test, and linear regression together with Spearman’s correlation to test our hypothesis. The degree of market efficiency of each ownership group is examined and compared to each other. Market efficiency related to ownership and market capitalization are inspected if they are anomaly factors in Chinese markets.   The empirical results indicate that the degree of market efficiency of state-owned companies is significantly different from the degree of market efficiency of private-owned companies in China. The market capitalization is one of the existing anomaly factors in Chinese stock markets, as well as it is correlated with degree of market efficiency to some extent. For state-owned enterprises, active management on stock market does not provide a better market efficiency compared to passively managed companies.

Background: Achieving an abnormal return on your investment is something investors are trying to achieve. A lot of attempts have been made to try and find an investment strategy that always generates abnormal returns, although none has been proven to be absolute. Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) proponents argue that when it comes to public available information, one could not get an abnormal advantage of this information. Behavioural Finance (BF) proponents however argue that there may still be possible for this due to human psychology. For markets to have the best possibilities for being efficient, it must be a large and competitive market where information transfers rapidly. When analysing aspects necessary for earning abnormal return for outsiders, there are indications that these aspects does exist and it might be profitable to mimic the insiders operating in the Swedish large-cap bank sector. The large-cap bank sector contains of Svenska Handelsbanken (SHB), Nordea, Swedbank and Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB). Purpose: The purpose of this thesis is to explore whether there exist an opportunity in the Swedish bank sector for outsiders to earn abnormal return based on insiders’ transactions. In the process an indirect test will be made to see if the semi-strong form of efficiency holds for the Swedish bank sector. Method: Observing the movements on the market when the information about insider trading becomes public. The results are tested for both statistical significance and economical significance. Conclusion: The purpose of this study was to try and determine whether or not outsiders could mimic the insider’s transactions in order to earn abnormal return in the Swedish bank sector. However, based on this study this seems not to be possible in the overall sector. The signs that indicated that this would be possible for the Swedish large-cap banks turned out to be false. The result that showed statistical difference from zero was negative and it was therefore concluded that the insider did not predict the future very well. This leads to the conclusion that there are stronger factors than the sign of insiders’ transactions determine the future stock price. Since the insiders could not predict the future stock prices, any attempt from outsiders to try to exploit their information would not be beneficial. This resulted in the BF assumptions of under- and overreaction in the price did not occur in this study and instead the results turned out to be in line with the EMH description of semi-strong markets. / Bakgrund: Att uppnå överavkastning på sin investering är något investerare ständigt försöker uppnå. Många försök har gjorts för att försöka hitta en investeringsstrategi som alltid genererar överavkastningen, dock har inga gjorts som visat sig vara kontinuerliga. Den Effektiva Marknads Hypotesens förespråkare hävdar att när det gäller offentligt tillgänglig information kan man inte få onormal fördel av detta. Dock hävdar förespråkare för Behavioural Finance att detta fortfarande kan vara möjligt och att detta beror delvis på mänsklig psykologi. För att marknader ska ha de bästa möjligheterna för att vara effektiv, måste de vara stora och konkurrenskraftiga där information överförs snabbt. När man analyserar vissa aspekter som är nödvändiga för att tjäna överavkastningen för utomstående, verkar det finnas tecken på att detta skulle kunna vara möjligt genom att imitera insynshandel i den Svenska large-cap bank sektorn. Sektorn består av Handelsbanken (SHB), Nordea, Swedbank och Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken (SEB). Syfte: Är att undersöka om det finns en möjlighet för utomstående att få överavkastningen baserad på insynspersonernas transaktioner. I processen görs ett indirekt test för att se om den Svenska banksektorn uppnår semi-stark effektivitet. Metod: Observera rörelserna på marknaden när information om insynshandel blev allmänt. Resultatet testas för både statistisk och ekonomisk signifikans. Slutsats: Syftet med denna studie var att försöka avgöra huruvida utomstående kunde imitera insynspersonernas transaktioner för att tjäna onormal avkastning i den Svenska banksektorn. Baserat på denna studie verkar detta inte vara möjligt i den totala sektorn. De tecken som indikerade att detta skulle vara möjligt för visade sig vara falskt. Resultatet som visade statistisk skillnad från noll var negativt och därför drogs slutsatsen att insynspersonerna inte kunde förutsäga framtiden särskilt väl. Detta leder till slutsatsen att det finns starkare faktorer än insynspersoners transaktioner som avgör framtida aktiekurser. Eftersom insynspersoner inte kunde förutse de framtida aktiekurserna, skulle varje försök från en utomstående att försöka utnyttja detta inte vara fördelaktigt. Detta resulterade i fenomenet av under- och överreaktioner som BF förespråkade, inte förekom i denna studie. Istället visade resultatet sig vara i linje med EMH beskrivningen av semi-starka marknader.