In the course of eurozone exit, the underlying stocks of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) would be redenominated from euros into the new national currency. We exploit ADR investors’ exposure to currency redenomination losses to derive a novel measure of eurozone exit risk. We find that while domestic bank stocks are not significantly affected by domestic exit risk, there is a negative exposure to exit risk of other countries that is channeled through bilateral credit risk. For the real sector, exposure to eurozone exit risk is heterogeneous among industries and is less negative for more indebted companies.

I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank (the first paper in Chapter II), fixed in pegged exchange rate regimes (the second paper in Chapter III), or not existent as the considered country is part of a currency union and therefore has no national currency (the third paper in Chapter IV). The first paper presented in Chapter II analyzes exchange rate expectations for the case of China in the period 1998-2009 in order to test standard exchange rate theories. American officials repeatedly accused China of systematically undervaluing its currency against the U.S. dollar , which produces political tensions between both countries. A recent climax in this dispute was reached on September 28, 2010, when the House of Representatives passed the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, which would allow the imposition of import duties for countries with undervalued currencies, namely China. Although this bill did not pass the Senate, Chinese officials clearly opposed the bill arguing against significant undervaluation of the yuan and in favor of political opportunism of U.S. officials. As the assessments of a fair exchange rate significantly differ among officials of both countries, the Chinese-American exchange rate dispute continues. Measuring the development of market determined exchange rate expectations may help to find a compromise in this international political dispute and knowing the determinants of these expectations may help to identify macroeconomic policies necessary to influence future exchange rates. The second paper presented in Chapter III investigates the development of exchange rate expectations and their determinants for the currency crisis episodes in Argentina (2001-2002), Malaysia (1998-1999), and Venezuela (1994-1996 and 2003-2007). Large devaluations of Southeast Asian and Latin American currencies were to be observed during the currency crises in the 1990’s and at the beginning of the last decade. Due to an appreciation of foreign currency denominated debt, capital withdrawals, and bank runs, for example, currency crises typically lead to significant output losses in the affected economies (Hutchison and Noy, 2002). Avoiding currency crisis outbreaks has therefore become one of the major policy goals in many developing countries, which may explain the rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves aimed to fend off speculative attacks in these countries. The costs of this currency crisis prevention policy are however often overseen. Since foreign exchange reserves are typically invested in U.S. Treasuries, they yield a relatively low return compared to the high cost of domestic capital in these countries. Moreover, foreign exchange reserves may lose in value as the domestic currency appreciates against the U.S. dollar (Rodrik, 2006). An alternative way to avoid the outbreak of currency crises may be to regularly adjust the official exchange rate (typically managed by the domestic central bank) to levels in line with market expectations. Knowing market-based exchange rate expectations and their determinants may therefore be a cheaper way to avoid currency crises than holding excess amounts of foreign exchange reserves. The third paper presented in Chapter IV uses daily ADR data to analyze the determinants of the risk of withdrawals from the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the five vulnerable member countries Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain for the period 2007-2009. The subprime lending crisis has triggered significant financial turmoil in the EMU. Banking systems were destabilized and the governments of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal had to be bailed out. Reasserting national authority over monetary policy may help domestic policymakers to address the problems caused by banking and sovereign debt crises or an overvalued euro at national discretion. While the abandonment of fixed exchange rate regimes has so far been analyzed for countries with national currencies, the financial vulnerabilities in the EMU offer a new case to study the possibility of withdrawals from a monetary union. Although a country’s membership in the EMU is typically considered irreversible, many authors agree that sovereign states can choose to leave the EMU (Cohen, 1993; Scott, 1998; Buiter, 1999; Eichengreen, 2007). The new Treaty of Lisbon now includes a provision outlining voluntary withdrawal from the Union, which may cause the members to re-think the pros and cons of remaining in the EMU. Although the European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented measures meant to support the banking sectors and governments in the EMU, autonomous national central banks would probably pursue more expansionary monetary policies. By analyzing the determinants of exchange rate expectations in the monetary union one may therefore analyze the drivers of the risk of withdrawal from the EMU. I.2 Deriving exchange rate expectations from prices of American Depositary Receipts Measuring movements in exchange rate expectations is a relatively easy task for currencies in which a liquid and free forward exchange market exists. For the cases considered in this dissertation, however, the forward exchange market either produces bad forecasts or does not even exist. For the case of China, the yuan/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate is most likely managed by the Chinese central bank in the course of its foreign exchange market intervention policies, which hampers its ability to provide good signals for the future spot market exchange rate (see, for example, Wang, 2010). For the considered member countries of the EMU, no national currencies exist and consequently forward exchange rates cannot be used. For the case of the currency crisis episodes studied in this dissertation, one could use regression-based forecasting models that employ data on macroeconomic variables in order to produce currency crisis signals (see, among others, Eichengreen et al., 1995; Frankel and Rose, 1996; Kaminsky et al., 1998; Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999; Karmann et al., 2002). The drawback of these approaches is the nature of macroeconomic data used, which enables one to create only monthly or quarterly crisis signals based on backward-looking data. In this dissertation I use stock market data to derive exchange rate expectations, which has several advantages compared to existing approaches. First of all, the prices of the considered stocks are most probably not manipulated by central bank interventions since these stocks are traded in the United States, which enables the derivation of exchange rate expectations formed under free market conditions (also for China). The used stock market data is available for the considered EMU member countries, which facilitates the analysis of the risk of withdrawals from the EMU. Moreover, stock market data is forward-looking and available on a daily basis, which enables the derivation of more accurate and up-to-date currency crisis signals for the considered crisis episodes. In order to derive exchange rate expectations I use data on a particular type of stock called American Depositary Receipt (ADR). An ADR is a financial instrument for foreign companies to list their shares at stock exchanges in the Unites States. An ADR represents the ownership of a specific number of underlying shares of a company in the home market on which the ADR is written. While the underlying stock is denominated in the currency and traded at the stock exchange of the home market, the ADR is denominated in U.S. dollars and traded at a U.S. stock exchange. Since both types of stocks of the same company generate identical cash flows and incorporate equivalent rights and dividend claims, cross-border arbitrage implies that the ADR and its underlying stock have the same price when adjusted for the current exchange rate. When capital controls or ownership restrictions are implemented, cross-border arbitrage is not possible and the law of one price is not binding. In such an environment, information efficiency suggests that the relative prices of ADRs and their underlying stocks – which only differ with respect to the currency they are denominated in – will signal exchange rate expectations of stock market investors. Using data on relative prices (or returns) of ADRs and their underlying stocks and the current exchange rate I can calculate measures for exchange rate expectations of stock market investors. Although the papers presented in this dissertation differ with respect to the considered companies, countries, and time periods, each paper uses the same kind of data and a similar methodology to derive exchange rate expectations – relative prices or returns of ADRs and their corresponding underlying stocks. In each paper I use a panel regression framework in order to analyze the determinants of exchange rate expectations. Each of the included papers focuses on a distinct facet of exchange rate expectations. The first paper focuses on standard exchange rate theories such as the relative purchasing power parity or the uncovered interest rate parity in order to analyze the factors that drive exchange rate expectations in general. The second paper studies the determinants of currency crisis expectations. The third paper analyzes the determinants of the risk of withdrawals from the EMU as expected by ADR market investors. I.3 Contribution to the literature This dissertation adds to two strands of the literature. First, it contributes to a literature that studies the determinants of exchange rates, currency crisis outbreaks, and risk of withdrawal from the EMU. The first paper (Chapter II) contributes to a vast literature on the determinants of exchange rates. An incomplete list of exchange rate determinants analyzed in the literature includes: labor productivity (Chinn, 2000; Cheung et al., 2007); inflation rates (Lothian and Taylor, 1996; Taylor et al., 2001); interest rates (Froot and Thaler, 1990; Chinn, 2006); overvaluation of the domestic currency (Glick and Rose, 1999; Corsetti et al., 2000); or export growth (Williamson, 1994; Isard, 2007). I study the impact of these macroeconomic fundamentals on ADR investors’ exchange rate expectations for China. China makes a good case to study standard exchange rate theories since the Chinese central bank manages the official yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate, which therefore reacts much less to changes in macroeconomic fundamentals than is suggested by theory. Using ADR market data, I can test exchange rate theories for the Chinese peg/managed float regime under free market conditions. The second paper (Chapter III) contributes to a literature, which analyzes the determinants of currency crisis outbreaks (Eichengreen et al., 1995; Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999; Karmann et al., 2002). Existing papers employ low-frequent and backward-looking macroeconomic data to forecast currency crises. This dissertation uses ADR market data to derive more accurate and up-to-date currency crisis signals on a daily basis. Moreover, the determinants of currency crisis expectations, such as banking or sovereign debt crisis risk, can be studied using daily market-based risk proxies. The third paper (Chapter IV) contributes to a literature on the sustainability of the EMU. Several papers discuss the possibility of withdrawal from the EMU (Cohen, 1993; Scott, 1998; Buiter, 1999; Eichengreen, 2007). I present empirical evidence that daily ADR market data reflects the risk that vulnerable member countries may leave the EMU and analyzes which determinants drive this withdrawal risk perceived by ADR investors. Second, this dissertation contributes to the literature on the pricing of ADRs. A common finding in the literature is that the outbreak of a currency crisis negatively affects the returns of U.S. dollar-denominated ADRs as the devaluation of the local currency depresses the dollar value of the underlying stock (see, for example, Bailey et al., 2000; Kim et al., 2000; Bin et al., 2004). Several papers find that the introduction of capital controls (typically meant to prevent a currency crisis outbreak) can lead to a permanent violation of the law of one price between ADRs and their underlying stocks since cross-border arbitrage cannot take place (Melvin, 2003; Levy Yeyati et al., 2004, 2009; Auguste et al., 2006). Arquette et al. (2008) and Burdekin and Redfern (2009) find that the price spreads of Chinese cross-listed stocks are significantly driven by market-traded forward exchange rates. This dissertation builds on these findings and uses the relative prices (or returns) of ADRs and their underlying stocks to derive exchange rate expectations. I present empirical evidence that ADR investors’ exchange rate expectations are driven by theory-based determinants of exchange rates, currency crisis outbreaks, or the risk of withdrawal from the EMU. This analysis therefore provides new insights into the price (return) determinants of ADRs. I.4 Main findings and policy implications The findings of this dissertation may broaden the understanding of exchanger rate expectations. The results of the first paper (Chapter II) suggest that stock market investors form their exchange rate expectations in accordance with standard exchange rate theories. Based on a monthly panel data set comprised of 22 ADR/underlying stock pairs and 52 H-share/underlying stock pairs from December 1998 to February 2009 I find that stock market investors expect more yuan appreciation against the U.S. dollar: if the yuan’s overvaluation decreases (the incentive of competitive devaluation); if the inflation differential vis-à-vis the United States falls (relative purchasing power parity); if the productivity growth in China accelerates relative to the United States (the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect); if the Chinese interest rate differential vis-à-vis the United States decreases (uncovered interest rate parity); when Chinese domestic credit relative to GDP decreases (lower risk of a twin banking and currency crisis); or, if Chinese sovereign bond yields fall (lower risk of a twin sovereign debt and currency crisis), ceteris paribus. These findings suggest that the theoretical links between macroeconomic variables and exchange rates in most cases also apply to exchange rate expectations. In this way, the results support the validity of many exchange rate theories and substantiate the rationality of stock market investors’ expectations. This approach (based on stock prices formed under free market conditions) provides an opportunity to test exchange rate theories in managed floating regimes, where the official exchange rate is manipulated by the central bank and does therefore not necessarily respond to changes in macroeconomic fundamentals. Moreover, I use a rolling regressions forecasting framework in order to evaluate the quality of exchange rate expectations. I find that exchange rate expectations drawn from the ADR and H-share market have a better ability to predict changes in the yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate than the random walk or forward exchange rates, at least at forecast horizons longer than one year. The People’s Bank of China may take advantage of ADR and H-share based exchange rate expectations in order to determine possible misalignments of the yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate. In this way, the Chinese central bank may improve the timing and intensity of foreign exchange market interventions meant to manipulate the yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The second paper (Chapter III) focuses on the derivation and determination of currency crisis signals formed by ADR market investors. Using daily data on 17 ADR/underlying stock pairs for the capital control episodes in Argentina (2001-2002), Malaysia (1998-1999), and Venezuela (1994-1996 and 2003-2007) we find that ADR investors anticipate currency crises or realignments well before they actually occur. Policymakers could use ADR investors’ up-to-date assessment of the peg’s sustainability in order to identify currency crisis risk earlier and to take the necessary steps to realign an (unsustainable) peg rate before a crisis breaks out. In this way, they could prevent the outbreaks of damaging currency crises without holding excess amounts of costly foreign exchange reserves. Using panel regressions we find that ADR investors anticipate a higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, the currencies of trading partners depreciate, sovereign bonds yield spreads rise, and interest rate spreads increase. These findings suggest that ADR investors’ currency crisis expectations are based on currency crisis theories even on a daily basis underlining the validity of these theories. The third paper (Chapter IV) studies a particular form of currency crisis risk: the risk that vulnerable member countries could leave the EMU. I use a multifactor pricing model to test whether the financial vulnerability measures assumed to reflect the incentives of national governments to withdraw from the EMU (banking crisis risk, sovereign debt crisis risk, and overvaluation of the euro) are priced in ADR returns. Using daily data on 22 ADR/underlying stock pairs of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain in the period January 2007 to March 2009 I find that ADR investors perceive a higher risk of withdrawal (priced in ADR returns) when the risk of banking and sovereign debt crisis and the overvaluation of the euro increase. Policymakers could use ADR market data in order to assess the stability of the EMU. Higher correlations between ADR returns and currency crisis risk factors would suggest a higher risk of withdrawals from the EMU. In such a case, financial vulnerabilities may be addressed within the EMU in order to preserve the integrity of the eurozone. However, time will show how long the policymakers in the EMU will continue with the implementation of even more anti-crisis measures. Growing controversies on the ECB’s sovereign bond purchases and the bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal cast doubt on the sustainability of the EMU in its current form.

In the course of eurozone exit, the underlying stocks of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) would be redenominated from euros into the new national currency. We exploit ADR investors’ exposure to currency redenomination losses to derive a novel measure of eurozone exit risk. We find that while domestic bank stocks are not significantly affected by domestic exit risk, there is a negative exposure to exit risk of other countries that is channeled through bilateral credit risk. For the real sector, exposure to eurozone exit risk is heterogeneous among industries and is less negative for more indebted companies.

I.1 Motivation Exchange rates are a key issue in international economics and politics. While the determinants of exchange rates have been extensively studied in previous works, this dissertation contributes to the literature by deriving exchange rate expectations from stock market (ADR) data and analyzing their determinants. This exercise is done for three cases where one has to resort to exchange rate expectations since the national exchange rate is either manipulated by the central bank (the first paper in Chapter II), fixed in pegged exchange rate regimes (the second paper in Chapter III), or not existent as the considered country is part of a currency union and therefore has no national currency (the third paper in Chapter IV). The first paper presented in Chapter II analyzes exchange rate expectations for the case of China in the period 1998-2009 in order to test standard exchange rate theories. American officials repeatedly accused China of systematically undervaluing its currency against the U.S. dollar , which produces political tensions between both countries. A recent climax in this dispute was reached on September 28, 2010, when the House of Representatives passed the Currency Reform for Fair Trade Act, which would allow the imposition of import duties for countries with undervalued currencies, namely China. Although this bill did not pass the Senate, Chinese officials clearly opposed the bill arguing against significant undervaluation of the yuan and in favor of political opportunism of U.S. officials. As the assessments of a fair exchange rate significantly differ among officials of both countries, the Chinese-American exchange rate dispute continues. Measuring the development of market determined exchange rate expectations may help to find a compromise in this international political dispute and knowing the determinants of these expectations may help to identify macroeconomic policies necessary to influence future exchange rates. The second paper presented in Chapter III investigates the development of exchange rate expectations and their determinants for the currency crisis episodes in Argentina (2001-2002), Malaysia (1998-1999), and Venezuela (1994-1996 and 2003-2007). Large devaluations of Southeast Asian and Latin American currencies were to be observed during the currency crises in the 1990’s and at the beginning of the last decade. Due to an appreciation of foreign currency denominated debt, capital withdrawals, and bank runs, for example, currency crises typically lead to significant output losses in the affected economies (Hutchison and Noy, 2002). Avoiding currency crisis outbreaks has therefore become one of the major policy goals in many developing countries, which may explain the rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves aimed to fend off speculative attacks in these countries. The costs of this currency crisis prevention policy are however often overseen. Since foreign exchange reserves are typically invested in U.S. Treasuries, they yield a relatively low return compared to the high cost of domestic capital in these countries. Moreover, foreign exchange reserves may lose in value as the domestic currency appreciates against the U.S. dollar (Rodrik, 2006). An alternative way to avoid the outbreak of currency crises may be to regularly adjust the official exchange rate (typically managed by the domestic central bank) to levels in line with market expectations. Knowing market-based exchange rate expectations and their determinants may therefore be a cheaper way to avoid currency crises than holding excess amounts of foreign exchange reserves. The third paper presented in Chapter IV uses daily ADR data to analyze the determinants of the risk of withdrawals from the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) for the five vulnerable member countries Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain for the period 2007-2009. The subprime lending crisis has triggered significant financial turmoil in the EMU. Banking systems were destabilized and the governments of Greece, Ireland, and Portugal had to be bailed out. Reasserting national authority over monetary policy may help domestic policymakers to address the problems caused by banking and sovereign debt crises or an overvalued euro at national discretion. While the abandonment of fixed exchange rate regimes has so far been analyzed for countries with national currencies, the financial vulnerabilities in the EMU offer a new case to study the possibility of withdrawals from a monetary union. Although a country’s membership in the EMU is typically considered irreversible, many authors agree that sovereign states can choose to leave the EMU (Cohen, 1993; Scott, 1998; Buiter, 1999; Eichengreen, 2007). The new Treaty of Lisbon now includes a provision outlining voluntary withdrawal from the Union, which may cause the members to re-think the pros and cons of remaining in the EMU. Although the European Central Bank (ECB) has implemented measures meant to support the banking sectors and governments in the EMU, autonomous national central banks would probably pursue more expansionary monetary policies. By analyzing the determinants of exchange rate expectations in the monetary union one may therefore analyze the drivers of the risk of withdrawal from the EMU. I.2 Deriving exchange rate expectations from prices of American Depositary Receipts Measuring movements in exchange rate expectations is a relatively easy task for currencies in which a liquid and free forward exchange market exists. For the cases considered in this dissertation, however, the forward exchange market either produces bad forecasts or does not even exist. For the case of China, the yuan/U.S. dollar forward exchange rate is most likely managed by the Chinese central bank in the course of its foreign exchange market intervention policies, which hampers its ability to provide good signals for the future spot market exchange rate (see, for example, Wang, 2010). For the considered member countries of the EMU, no national currencies exist and consequently forward exchange rates cannot be used. For the case of the currency crisis episodes studied in this dissertation, one could use regression-based forecasting models that employ data on macroeconomic variables in order to produce currency crisis signals (see, among others, Eichengreen et al., 1995; Frankel and Rose, 1996; Kaminsky et al., 1998; Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999; Karmann et al., 2002). The drawback of these approaches is the nature of macroeconomic data used, which enables one to create only monthly or quarterly crisis signals based on backward-looking data. In this dissertation I use stock market data to derive exchange rate expectations, which has several advantages compared to existing approaches. First of all, the prices of the considered stocks are most probably not manipulated by central bank interventions since these stocks are traded in the United States, which enables the derivation of exchange rate expectations formed under free market conditions (also for China). The used stock market data is available for the considered EMU member countries, which facilitates the analysis of the risk of withdrawals from the EMU. Moreover, stock market data is forward-looking and available on a daily basis, which enables the derivation of more accurate and up-to-date currency crisis signals for the considered crisis episodes. In order to derive exchange rate expectations I use data on a particular type of stock called American Depositary Receipt (ADR). An ADR is a financial instrument for foreign companies to list their shares at stock exchanges in the Unites States. An ADR represents the ownership of a specific number of underlying shares of a company in the home market on which the ADR is written. While the underlying stock is denominated in the currency and traded at the stock exchange of the home market, the ADR is denominated in U.S. dollars and traded at a U.S. stock exchange. Since both types of stocks of the same company generate identical cash flows and incorporate equivalent rights and dividend claims, cross-border arbitrage implies that the ADR and its underlying stock have the same price when adjusted for the current exchange rate. When capital controls or ownership restrictions are implemented, cross-border arbitrage is not possible and the law of one price is not binding. In such an environment, information efficiency suggests that the relative prices of ADRs and their underlying stocks – which only differ with respect to the currency they are denominated in – will signal exchange rate expectations of stock market investors. Using data on relative prices (or returns) of ADRs and their underlying stocks and the current exchange rate I can calculate measures for exchange rate expectations of stock market investors. Although the papers presented in this dissertation differ with respect to the considered companies, countries, and time periods, each paper uses the same kind of data and a similar methodology to derive exchange rate expectations – relative prices or returns of ADRs and their corresponding underlying stocks. In each paper I use a panel regression framework in order to analyze the determinants of exchange rate expectations. Each of the included papers focuses on a distinct facet of exchange rate expectations. The first paper focuses on standard exchange rate theories such as the relative purchasing power parity or the uncovered interest rate parity in order to analyze the factors that drive exchange rate expectations in general. The second paper studies the determinants of currency crisis expectations. The third paper analyzes the determinants of the risk of withdrawals from the EMU as expected by ADR market investors. I.3 Contribution to the literature This dissertation adds to two strands of the literature. First, it contributes to a literature that studies the determinants of exchange rates, currency crisis outbreaks, and risk of withdrawal from the EMU. The first paper (Chapter II) contributes to a vast literature on the determinants of exchange rates. An incomplete list of exchange rate determinants analyzed in the literature includes: labor productivity (Chinn, 2000; Cheung et al., 2007); inflation rates (Lothian and Taylor, 1996; Taylor et al., 2001); interest rates (Froot and Thaler, 1990; Chinn, 2006); overvaluation of the domestic currency (Glick and Rose, 1999; Corsetti et al., 2000); or export growth (Williamson, 1994; Isard, 2007). I study the impact of these macroeconomic fundamentals on ADR investors’ exchange rate expectations for China. China makes a good case to study standard exchange rate theories since the Chinese central bank manages the official yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate, which therefore reacts much less to changes in macroeconomic fundamentals than is suggested by theory. Using ADR market data, I can test exchange rate theories for the Chinese peg/managed float regime under free market conditions. The second paper (Chapter III) contributes to a literature, which analyzes the determinants of currency crisis outbreaks (Eichengreen et al., 1995; Kaminsky and Reinhart, 1999; Karmann et al., 2002). Existing papers employ low-frequent and backward-looking macroeconomic data to forecast currency crises. This dissertation uses ADR market data to derive more accurate and up-to-date currency crisis signals on a daily basis. Moreover, the determinants of currency crisis expectations, such as banking or sovereign debt crisis risk, can be studied using daily market-based risk proxies. The third paper (Chapter IV) contributes to a literature on the sustainability of the EMU. Several papers discuss the possibility of withdrawal from the EMU (Cohen, 1993; Scott, 1998; Buiter, 1999; Eichengreen, 2007). I present empirical evidence that daily ADR market data reflects the risk that vulnerable member countries may leave the EMU and analyzes which determinants drive this withdrawal risk perceived by ADR investors. Second, this dissertation contributes to the literature on the pricing of ADRs. A common finding in the literature is that the outbreak of a currency crisis negatively affects the returns of U.S. dollar-denominated ADRs as the devaluation of the local currency depresses the dollar value of the underlying stock (see, for example, Bailey et al., 2000; Kim et al., 2000; Bin et al., 2004). Several papers find that the introduction of capital controls (typically meant to prevent a currency crisis outbreak) can lead to a permanent violation of the law of one price between ADRs and their underlying stocks since cross-border arbitrage cannot take place (Melvin, 2003; Levy Yeyati et al., 2004, 2009; Auguste et al., 2006). Arquette et al. (2008) and Burdekin and Redfern (2009) find that the price spreads of Chinese cross-listed stocks are significantly driven by market-traded forward exchange rates. This dissertation builds on these findings and uses the relative prices (or returns) of ADRs and their underlying stocks to derive exchange rate expectations. I present empirical evidence that ADR investors’ exchange rate expectations are driven by theory-based determinants of exchange rates, currency crisis outbreaks, or the risk of withdrawal from the EMU. This analysis therefore provides new insights into the price (return) determinants of ADRs. I.4 Main findings and policy implications The findings of this dissertation may broaden the understanding of exchanger rate expectations. The results of the first paper (Chapter II) suggest that stock market investors form their exchange rate expectations in accordance with standard exchange rate theories. Based on a monthly panel data set comprised of 22 ADR/underlying stock pairs and 52 H-share/underlying stock pairs from December 1998 to February 2009 I find that stock market investors expect more yuan appreciation against the U.S. dollar: if the yuan’s overvaluation decreases (the incentive of competitive devaluation); if the inflation differential vis-à-vis the United States falls (relative purchasing power parity); if the productivity growth in China accelerates relative to the United States (the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect); if the Chinese interest rate differential vis-à-vis the United States decreases (uncovered interest rate parity); when Chinese domestic credit relative to GDP decreases (lower risk of a twin banking and currency crisis); or, if Chinese sovereign bond yields fall (lower risk of a twin sovereign debt and currency crisis), ceteris paribus. These findings suggest that the theoretical links between macroeconomic variables and exchange rates in most cases also apply to exchange rate expectations. In this way, the results support the validity of many exchange rate theories and substantiate the rationality of stock market investors’ expectations. This approach (based on stock prices formed under free market conditions) provides an opportunity to test exchange rate theories in managed floating regimes, where the official exchange rate is manipulated by the central bank and does therefore not necessarily respond to changes in macroeconomic fundamentals. Moreover, I use a rolling regressions forecasting framework in order to evaluate the quality of exchange rate expectations. I find that exchange rate expectations drawn from the ADR and H-share market have a better ability to predict changes in the yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate than the random walk or forward exchange rates, at least at forecast horizons longer than one year. The People’s Bank of China may take advantage of ADR and H-share based exchange rate expectations in order to determine possible misalignments of the yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate. In this way, the Chinese central bank may improve the timing and intensity of foreign exchange market interventions meant to manipulate the yuan/U.S. dollar exchange rate. The second paper (Chapter III) focuses on the derivation and determination of currency crisis signals formed by ADR market investors. Using daily data on 17 ADR/underlying stock pairs for the capital control episodes in Argentina (2001-2002), Malaysia (1998-1999), and Venezuela (1994-1996 and 2003-2007) we find that ADR investors anticipate currency crises or realignments well before they actually occur. Policymakers could use ADR investors’ up-to-date assessment of the peg’s sustainability in order to identify currency crisis risk earlier and to take the necessary steps to realign an (unsustainable) peg rate before a crisis breaks out. In this way, they could prevent the outbreaks of damaging currency crises without holding excess amounts of costly foreign exchange reserves. Using panel regressions we find that ADR investors anticipate a higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, the currencies of trading partners depreciate, sovereign bonds yield spreads rise, and interest rate spreads increase. These findings suggest that ADR investors’ currency crisis expectations are based on currency crisis theories even on a daily basis underlining the validity of these theories. The third paper (Chapter IV) studies a particular form of currency crisis risk: the risk that vulnerable member countries could leave the EMU. I use a multifactor pricing model to test whether the financial vulnerability measures assumed to reflect the incentives of national governments to withdraw from the EMU (banking crisis risk, sovereign debt crisis risk, and overvaluation of the euro) are priced in ADR returns. Using daily data on 22 ADR/underlying stock pairs of Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain in the period January 2007 to March 2009 I find that ADR investors perceive a higher risk of withdrawal (priced in ADR returns) when the risk of banking and sovereign debt crisis and the overvaluation of the euro increase. Policymakers could use ADR market data in order to assess the stability of the EMU. Higher correlations between ADR returns and currency crisis risk factors would suggest a higher risk of withdrawals from the EMU. In such a case, financial vulnerabilities may be addressed within the EMU in order to preserve the integrity of the eurozone. However, time will show how long the policymakers in the EMU will continue with the implementation of even more anti-crisis measures. Growing controversies on the ECB’s sovereign bond purchases and the bailouts for Greece, Ireland and Portugal cast doubt on the sustainability of the EMU in its current form.

This thesis consists of empirical studies on various aspects of international corporate finance, a series of long-run event studies examining the abnormal stock return performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), and stock analyst recommendations. The first two of these, presented in Chapters 2 and 3, investigate the key issues relating to Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). The next, in Chapter 4, examines the performance of new American Depositary Receipt issues from emerging markets and its determinants. The final study, presented in Chapter 5, assesses the value of stock analysts? recommendations in emerging markets. It is essentially a series of empirical studies adopting a tried and tested methodology, involving benchmarks, for measuring returns over time in emerging markets, a subject that has not been sufficiently investigated. The long-run event study approach is designed to identify anomalies in these markets, which may be much more pronounced than in developed markets. This thesis makes substantive contributions to the existing knowledge on measuring, documenting and determining various issues in international corporate finance, and provides methodological improvements over previous studies. Chapter 2 presents an examination of the stock return performance of the IPO stocks listed on the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) in Hong Kong, finding that the return performance is sensitive to the benchmark employed. Two main factors contributing to the underperformance of GEM stocks are the ?technology boom? and ?IPO effects?. Moreover, the results of cross-sectional analyses suggest that the Hong Kong GEM is a unique market; since at least 70 percent of the IPO stocks listed on the GEM are technology stocks, the ?technology? factor outweighs previous hypotheses advocated by previous researchers to explain the poor performance of newly listed stocks. Chapter 3 extends this analysis by turning attention to the post-issue stock price performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in Asian markets, using a comparative assessment of the stock performance of Asian IPOs motivated by the ongoing discovery of biases in event studies involving long horizon returns. Various methods were used to remove such biases, while examining the robustness of the long run performance of the IPOs. The results of this examination show that the existence of long run underperformance for the Asian IPOs depends on the methodology used. The study also assesses the ?Market Timing? theory with regard to Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), adding to the growing literature that suggests that Asian firms time their issuance of equity securities. Chapter 4 presents a comparative study of the post-issue stock performance and operating performance of the Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of American Depositary Receipts (ADR) in emerging markets. The results of this study suggest that ADR IPOs are underpriced, though not to the same extent as regular IPOs. In the aftermarket, ADR IPOs underperform the Emerging Market Index. However, after controlling for differences in size and industry, underperformance of ADR IPOs compared with both home market IPOs and US IPOs could not be demonstrated. The analysis of stock and operating performance yields consistent results; aside from the ?window dressing? effect, this also demonstrates that stock price performance is a reflection of operating performance over the long run. Chapter 5 presents the first study to examine post-recommendation abnormal returns in emerging markets, based on the Emerging Market Index adjusted model and the Controlling Firm approach, demonstrating that stock prices react significantly to recommendation revisions, both on the revision day and subsequently. In this cross-sectional analysis, it appears that the Market-to-Book ratio is the primary indicator for Buy and Strong Buy recommendations. This indicates that stock analysts in emerging markets prefer high growth stocks with their attractive characteristics.

This thesis consists of empirical studies on various aspects of international corporate finance, a series of long-run event studies examining the abnormal stock return performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), and stock analyst recommendations. The first two of these, presented in Chapters 2 and 3, investigate the key issues relating to Initial Public Offerings (IPOs). The next, in Chapter 4, examines the performance of new American Depositary Receipt issues from emerging markets and its determinants. The final study, presented in Chapter 5, assesses the value of stock analysts? recommendations in emerging markets. It is essentially a series of empirical studies adopting a tried and tested methodology, involving benchmarks, for measuring returns over time in emerging markets, a subject that has not been sufficiently investigated. The long-run event study approach is designed to identify anomalies in these markets, which may be much more pronounced than in developed markets. This thesis makes substantive contributions to the existing knowledge on measuring, documenting and determining various issues in international corporate finance, and provides methodological improvements over previous studies. Chapter 2 presents an examination of the stock return performance of the IPO stocks listed on the Growth Enterprise Market (GEM) in Hong Kong, finding that the return performance is sensitive to the benchmark employed. Two main factors contributing to the underperformance of GEM stocks are the ?technology boom? and ?IPO effects?. Moreover, the results of cross-sectional analyses suggest that the Hong Kong GEM is a unique market; since at least 70 percent of the IPO stocks listed on the GEM are technology stocks, the ?technology? factor outweighs previous hypotheses advocated by previous researchers to explain the poor performance of newly listed stocks. Chapter 3 extends this analysis by turning attention to the post-issue stock price performance of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) in Asian markets, using a comparative assessment of the stock performance of Asian IPOs motivated by the ongoing discovery of biases in event studies involving long horizon returns. Various methods were used to remove such biases, while examining the robustness of the long run performance of the IPOs. The results of this examination show that the existence of long run underperformance for the Asian IPOs depends on the methodology used. The study also assesses the ?Market Timing? theory with regard to Initial Public Offerings (IPOs), adding to the growing literature that suggests that Asian firms time their issuance of equity securities. Chapter 4 presents a comparative study of the post-issue stock performance and operating performance of the Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) of American Depositary Receipts (ADR) in emerging markets. The results of this study suggest that ADR IPOs are underpriced, though not to the same extent as regular IPOs. In the aftermarket, ADR IPOs underperform the Emerging Market Index. However, after controlling for differences in size and industry, underperformance of ADR IPOs compared with both home market IPOs and US IPOs could not be demonstrated. The analysis of stock and operating performance yields consistent results; aside from the ?window dressing? effect, this also demonstrates that stock price performance is a reflection of operating performance over the long run. Chapter 5 presents the first study to examine post-recommendation abnormal returns in emerging markets, based on the Emerging Market Index adjusted model and the Controlling Firm approach, demonstrating that stock prices react significantly to recommendation revisions, both on the revision day and subsequently. In this cross-sectional analysis, it appears that the Market-to-Book ratio is the primary indicator for Buy and Strong Buy recommendations. This indicates that stock analysts in emerging markets prefer high growth stocks with their attractive characteristics.

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本文主要目的係探討過度自信之管理者，是否傾向發行美國存託憑證，以及發行美國存託憑證之公司，是否會進行盈餘管理。本文衡量過度自信的方法，為公司之資產成長率；衡量盈餘管理的方法，則參照Zang (2012) 之研究，分為應計項目盈餘管理與實質盈餘管理；在實質盈餘管理方面，分別測試單一變數及合併變數。本研究之對象為1993年至2015年，中國在美國發行存託憑證之公司。實證結果發現，具過度自信管理者之中國公司，較願意赴美發行存託憑證，進入此較具競爭力之市場；除此之外，中國在美國發行存託憑證之公司，不管在應計項目，或實質項目方面，皆較不傾向進行盈餘管理。 / The main purpose of this study is to examine whether the overconfident managers tend to issue American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), and whether the firms issuing ADRs tend to conduct earnings management. In this paper, I employ the rate of asset growth as the proxy to measure overconfidence of managers, and follow the methods by Zang (2012) to measure earnings management including real earnings management and accrual earnings management. In addition, single variables and combined variables are used to test real earnings management. The research samples consist of Chinese firms which released ADRs for the period 1993 - 2015. The empirical results show that Chinese firms with overconfident managers tend to issue ADRs, indicating they are willing to enter the competitive market. The results also show that Chinese firms which issue ADRs are less likely to conduct real earnings management and accrual earnings management.

In this thesis, we analyze premium relationship of American depositary receipts (ADR) and their underlying shares. Several researchers have previously identified the main variables influencing the construction of ADR premium of cross-listed companies. The aim of this study is to investigate to what extent the main variables affect differently the construction of ADR premium in crisis period. For the purpose of the study, two periods are defined. The period from June 2006 to October 2007 represents the non-crisis period whereas the period from October 2007 to March 2009 represents the crisis period. Our cross-listing sample consists of companies that have level II and level III ADR listed on the NYSE and the NASDAQ over the two periods. The tested variables influencing the premium are the liquidity, the currency exchange rate, the home and US market and the volatility. The liquidity is measured according to two ratios, the Amihud ratio and the turnover ratio. The currency exchange rate is the current exchange rate denominated in US dollar. The home markets are the reference indexes of the home country to which the underlying share of the ADR belong. The S&P 500 Index is used as a proxy for the US market. Finally, the US market volatility is analyzed with the CBOE VIX volatility Index. Multiple and simple OLS regressions are used to analyze the impacts of variables on ADR premium. The T-statistic is chosen to test the explanatory power of variables. The regressions are divided in three main parts. The first one is dedicated to the liquidity variables, then the second one to the home and US market, currency exchange rate and CBOE VIX volatility Index. Finally the last part keeps only the variables with the stronger explanatory power in order to define two equations of the factor influencing mostly the premium. We have found that crisis strongly modifies the relationship between ADR premium and the main variables. In crisis period, the regressions show that liquidity becomes a factor with a greater explanatory power of ADR premium. However the other main variables experience the opposite effect with a much lower T-test in times of crisis. It seems that the currency exchange rate, the home and US market as well as the volatility lose their explanatory power in times of crisis to the benefit of liquidity variables.

O objetivo desse trabalho é analisar os efeitos do anúncio da dupla-listagem sobre o comportamento das ações no mercado doméstico das empresas que promoveram a listagem de ADRs. Os aspectos do comportamento analisados são os retornos anormais, os padrões de liquidez e volatilidade de preços. Foram analisados 22 programas de ADRs. Para cada uma das características analisadas foi utilizada uma diferente técnica empírica. A análise dos retornos anormais foi realizada através de um estudo de eventos para 5 diferentes janelas de estudos. A segunda técnica empírica utiliza-se do Índice de Negociabilidade, uma métrica desenvolvida pela Economática envolvendo o número de negócios diários e o volume diário transacionado da ação para medir potenciais alterações na liquidez das ações e, por fim, a terceira técnica utilizada utiliza a variância dos retornos como medida relevante de alteração de volatilidade dos mesmos. Embora com limitações, o estudo apresentou resultados em linha com parte da literatura de referência, demonstrando, excetuando-se pela janela de 5 dias pré e pós evento, que não é possível afirmar que os retornos das ações estudadas após o anúncio da emissão das ADRs são diferentes dos retornos apresentados pelas ações antes do anúncio. Com relação à análise de impacto sobre a liquidez das ações (INM 50d), foi possível rejeitar a hipótese de que o programa não causa impacto na liquidez com um nível de significância de 10% após comparar a liquidez das ações das empresas que emitiram ADRs com a liquidez das ações das empresas que compunham as carteiras dos grupos de controle. Finalmente, ao estudar a volatilidade das ações, foi possível observar que, para os testes-F realizados, das 22 ações testadas, 11 apresentaram resultados que permitem rejeitar a hipótese nula e, portanto, inferir que, para essas companhias, a variância dos retornos durante o período de 50 dias pós-evento foi diferente da variância dos retornos durante o período de 50 dias pré-evento dentro de um nível de significância de 5%. Para as outras 11 empresas testadas, não foi possível rejeitar a hipótese nula e, portanto, não foi possível concluir, para essas empresas, que o evento do anúncio da emissão de ADRs exerceu qualquer influência sobre a volatilidade dos retornos das ações subjacentes. Essa dissertação contribui para o entendimento mais aprofundado das consequências da emissão de ADRs. Tal processo, caro e demandante, expõe as companhias a diferentes níveis de regulação e exige um nível mais elevado de governança e, portanto, deve ser bem entendido por gestores, bancos e consultores. / The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of the cross-listing announcement on the behavior of the shares of Brazilian companies that enroll in ADR programs. The analyzed aspects of the domestic shares’ behavior are the abnormal returns, the liquidity levels and the volatility of the returns measured by their variance. 22 ADR programs were analyzed. For each of the characteristic studied, a different empirical technique was utilized. The abnormal returns analysis was conducted through an event study for 5 different study windows. The second empirical technique rely on the “Indice de Negociabilidade”, a metric developed by Economatica which involves the number of daily trades of the market and of the shares to measure potential changes in the liquidity levels of the shares. Finally, the third method used analyzes the variance of the returns of the domestic shares as relevant measure of volatility of returns. Although with limitations, the study presented results aligned with part of the reference studies and bibliography, demonstrating, except for the window of 5 days pre and post event, that it is not possible to assert that the returns of the shares analyzed after the announcement of the issuance of the ADRs are different from the returns presented by the shares before the announcement. With regard to the analysis of the impact on shares’ liquidity (INM 50d), it was possible to reject the hypothesis that the program does not impact liquidity with a significance level of 10% after comparing the liquidity of the shares of the companies that issued ADRs with the liquidity companies’ shares that composed the portfolios of the control groups. Finally, in studying volatility of the shares, it was possible to observe that for the F-tests performed, of the 22 shares tested, 11 presented results that allow the rejection of the null hypothesis and, therefore, infer that for these companies, the variance of returns during the 50-day period postevent was different from the variance of returns over the 50-day period previous to the event within a significance level of 5%. For the 11 other companies tested, it was not possible to reject the null hypothesis and therefore it was not possible to conclude, for these companies, that the event of the announcement of the issuance of ADRs had any influence on the volatility of the returns of the underlying shares. This dissertation contributes to a more in-depth understanding of the consequences of issuing ADRs. Such an expensive and demanding process exposes companies to different levels of regulation and requires a higher level of governance and therefore must be well understood by managers, banks and consultants.