Submitted by Lucienne Costa (lucienneferreira@ufcg.edu.br) on 2018-07-12T19:21:57Z No. of bitstreams: 1 IRENE CRISTINA PEREIRA CORRÊA – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2016.pdf: 4134297 bytes, checksum: e164027e58e1412658c53000de876d14 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-07-12T19:21:57Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 IRENE CRISTINA PEREIRA CORRÊA – DISSERTAÇÃO (PPGMET) 2016.pdf: 4134297 bytes, checksum: e164027e58e1412658c53000de876d14 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-12-09 / As variabilidades interanual e interdecenal da precipitação do Nordeste Brasileiro (NEB) e sua relação com os fenômenos El Niño Oscilação Sul (ENOS), dipolo do Atlântico, Oscilação Decenal do Pacifico (ODP) e Oscilação Multidecenal do Atlântico (OMA) tem sido o objetivo de muitos estudos. O presente trabalho teve por objetivo estudar as variabilidades interanual e interdecenal do clima do estado do Ceará utilizando os índices climáticos efetivos de umidade (Im) e aridez (Ia) de Thornthwaite (1948) e o índice de aridez da UNEP (IaUNEP), pois estes são bastantes usados para produzir classificação climática. Foram feitas a análise das variabilidades interanual e interdecenal dos índices utilizando a análise harmônica e a análise de ondaletas e a classificação climática, para estado do Ceará, no período de 1951 a 2014. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que de acordo com os índices IaUNEP e Im é classificado como sendo um clima Semiárido, com uma variabilidade interanual muito grande, pois numa mesma localidade apresenta clima árido, em um período, e úmido, em outro. Durante os 64 anos, a maioria dos municípios analisados apresentou o seu maior percentual de tempo no clima semiárido. Já para o estudo da variabilidade interanual e interdecenal dos índices de IaUNEP e Im a Análise de Ondaletas e Análise Harmônica mostraram que variabilidade interanual e interdecenal são decorrentes do ciclo de ENOS, do gradiente de anomalia de TSM no Atlântico Tropical, das oscilações das fases frias e quentes da OMA e ODP que suavizam ou intensificam a aridez do clima do Ceará produzindo variabilidade de frequência. / The interannual and interdecadal variability of the Brazilian Northeast (NEB) precipitation and its relationship with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Atlantic dipole, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (ODP) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AOM) phenomena has been the objective Of many studies. The objective of this study was to study the interannual and interdecadal variability of the climate of the state of Ceará using the effective humidity indexes (Im) and aridity (Ia) of Thornthwaite (1948) and the aridity index of UNEP (IaUNEP), since These are enough used to produce climatic classification. The interannual and interdecadal variability of the indices were analyzed using harmonic analysis and the analysis of waveforms and climatic classification for the State of Ceará, from 1951 to 2014. The results obtained showed that according to the IaUNEP and Im Is classified as being semi-arid climate, with a very high interannual variability, because in the same locality it presents arid climate, in one period, and humid, in another. During the 64 years, most of the municipalities analyzed presented their highest percentage of time in the semi-arid climate. For the study of the interannual and interdecadal variability of the IaUNEP and Im indexes the Wavelet Analysis and Harmonic Analysis showed that interannual and interdecadal variability are due to the ENSO cycle, the SST anomaly gradient in the Tropical Atlantic, the cold phase oscillations And warm periods of OMA and ODP that soften or intensify the aridity of the climate of Ceará producing frequency variability.

The number of people around the world who are affected by humanitarian crises has almost doubled in the past decade. For instance, in 2016, Southern Africa experienced the worst drought in 35 years, due to the weather phenomenon El Niño, and all aspects of society were affected. The aim of this thesis is to identify and analyse different types of challenges humanitarian relief programmes face in their disaster management in two different contexts: a conflict and a non-conflict context. The thesis combines both disaster management and peace and conflict studies. Interviews have been conducted in Zimbabwe (non-conflict) and Mozambique (conflict) with INGOs, UN organisations and donors that were involved in the humanitarian relief programmes in the countries during the El Niño induced drought in 2016. The programmes experienced various challenges, and additional challenges have been found in the humanitarian relief programmes in Mozambique due to the conflict. This thesis contributes to the existing theory with one piece of the puzzle: combining the theories on disaster management and peace and conflict studies and showing that neighbouring countries to those in conflict are likely to get spillover challenges from the country in conflict, primarily due to issues with refugees.

The aim of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of Rift Valley fever (RVF) in South Africa. The first part of the study consisted of the compilation of a full history of RVF in South Africa. This was done by compiling all references to outbreaks of the disease in South Africa from all available literature, annual reports, disease reports and animal disease databases. The geographic location and temporal occurrence of each outbreak was recorded as accurately as allowed by the available records. The result was a better and more complete picture than has hitherto been available of the spatial and temporal distribution of RVF for the period 1950, when the disease was first recognised in South Africa, to 2010. Several smaller outbreaks not mentioned in the literature were found. It emerged that large outbreaks occur in the Free State Province, Eastern Cape Province and Northern Cape Province with long periods of absence and smaller outbreaks occur in KwaZulu-Natal, Mpumalanga and Gauteng at more frequent intervals.The second part of the study used the data collected during the first part of the study to determine which climatic and other environmental factors could have played a role in the occurrence of RVF in South Africa. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to estimate associations between the various potential risk factors and the occurrence of Rift Valley fever.The study found that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation influence on rainfall in South Africa has an effect on the occurrence of RVF in South Africa which is opposite to the effect that has been described for Kenya. A positive Southern Oscillation Index (La Niña) increases the likelihood of a RVF outbreak in South Africa.The study also found that very high rainfall during the summer months (December to February) is an important risk factor for the occurrence of RVF and it confirmed the increased risk of an outbreak where pans and wetlands are present as reported in several articles and disease reports on past outbreaks. Several other factors, such as minimum and maximum temperature were also found to have a statistically significant effect on the occurrence of Rift Valley fever. Copyright / Dissertation (MSc)--University of Pretoria, 2011. / Production Animal Studies / unrestricted

I applied empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and the Hilbert-Herbert transforms, as tools to analyze streamflow data. I used the EMD method to extract and analyze periodic processes and trends in several environmental datasets including daily stream flow, daily precipitation, and daily temperature on data from the watersheds of two rivers in the Upper Colorado River Basin, the Yampa and the Upper-Green rivers. I used these data to identify forcing functions governing streamflow. Forcing functions include environmental factors such as temperature and precipitation and anthropogenic factors such as dams or diversions. The Green and Yampa Rivers have similar headwaters, but the Yampa has minimal diversions or controls while Flaming George Dam on the Green river significantly affects flow. This provides two different flow regimes with similar large watersheds. In addition to flow data, I analyzed several time series data sets, including temperature and precipitation from Northeast Utah, North Western Colorado, and Southern Wyoming. These data are from the area that defines the Yampa River and Green River watersheds, which stretch from Flaming Gorge Dam to Ouray Colorado. The EMD method is a relatively new technique that allows any time series data set, including non-linear and non-stationary datasets that are common in earth observation data, to be decomposed into a small quantity of composite finite data series, called intrinsic mode functions (IMFs). The EMD method can decompose any complicated data into several IMFs that represent independent signals in the original data. These IMFs may represent periodic forcing functions, such as environmental conditions or dam operations, or they may be artifacts of the decomposition method and not have an associated physical meaning. This study attempts to assign physical meaning to some IMFs resulting from the decomposition of the Green and Yampa flows where possible. To assign physical meaning to the IMFs, I analyzed frequencies of each IMF using the Hilbert-Hung transform, part of the Empirical Mode Decomposition method, and then compared frequencies of the IMFs with the known frequencies of physical processes. I performed these calculations on both flow, temperature, and precipitation. I found significant correlation between IMF components of flow, precipitation, and temperature data with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The EMD process also extracts the long-term trend in non-linear data sets that can provide insights into the effects of climate change on the flow system. Though in preliminary stages of research, these analysis methods may lead to further understanding the availability of water within the upper Yampa and Green River Watersheds.

South African southern right whales (SRWs; Eubalaena australis) have been studied intensively since 1969, and annual aerial surveys between 1971 and 2006 indicate a predominant 6.9% annual population growth rate – a conservation success story after the species’ legal protection from commercial whaling in 1935. However, the prevalence of South African SRW unaccompanied adults (non-calving adults) and cow-calf pairs dropped sharply after 2009 and 2015, respectively. Additionally, the calving interval of many female South African SRWs has shifted from a three-year cycle to a four- or five-year cycle, since 2010, suggesting calving failure. This has resulted in a decrease in the population growth rate from 6.9% between 1971 and 2006, to 6.5% in 2017. SRWs are capital breeders that meet migratory and reproductive costs through seasonal energy intake, leading to strong links between their calving and foraging success. The anomalous trends in the South African SRW population have therefore raised concern about the ecological status of its broad feeding range in the Southern Ocean and ultimately about its continued population recovery. This necessitated investigation firstly into the influence of large-scale global climate drivers, Antarctic winter sea-ice extent and summer ocean productivity on the calving output of the South African SRW population. Auto-regressive integrated moving average models revealed significant model performance improvement through the inclusion of the Oceanic Niño Index (a key measure of El Niño events), the Antarctic Oscillation (the leading mode of atmospheric variability in the Southern Ocean) and chlorophyll a concentrations. The findings indicate that the South African SRW calving output appears closely influenced by not only the species’ life cycle, but also by foraging ground productivity and global climate. Secondly, the foraging strategies of South African SRWs during the 1990s (i.e. a period of high calving rates) and the late 2010s (i.e. a period of low calving rates), were assessed, through the analyses of stable carbon (δ13C) and nitrogen (δ15N) isotope values in SRW skin biopsy samples (n = 122). Results show that South African SRWs underwent a dramatic northward shift in foraging location, as well as a diversification in foraging strategy, between the 1990s and 2010s. Bayesian mixing models suggest that during the 1990s, the population foraged on prey with isotopic values similar to krill from around South Georgia. By contrast, in the 2010s, it is inferred that the population foraged on prey with isotopic values consistent with prey found in the waters of the Subtropical Convergence, Polar Front, and Marion Island. This shift could represent a new strategy to cope with changes in the availability of preferred prey or changes in habitat productivity. However, the co-occurring reproductive declines show that altering foraging strategies may not be sufficient to successfully adapt to a changing ocean. Overall, the results of this dissertation advocate that South African SRWs have recently been affected by environmental change at their foraging grounds, in turn affecting their reproductive success. Their predictive coastal presence and the existing long-term monitoring suggest that the species should be regarded as an indicator species – illustrative of climate change impacts in Southern Ocean ecosystems. / Dissertation (MSc ((Zoology))--University of Pretoria, 2020. / Zoology and Entomology / MSc (Zoology) / Restricted

Global biodiversity losses are being driven by human actions, and coral reef communities are not immune. Local anthropogenic stress and global climate change are rapidly changing coral reefs, through coral bleaching and mortality. How these stressors impact the biodiversity and community structure of corals on tropical reefs will not only affect the communities of fish and invertebrates that rely on coral reefs, but they could have lasting impacts on ecosystem functioning. The record-breaking marine heatwave caused by the 2015/2016 El Niño was superimposed on a strong local human disturbance gradient on Kiritimati, Kiribati, allowing for the investigation of how these combined disturbances affect coral communities. In Chapter 2, I investigated how soft coral cover varies with these disturbances and natural environmental factors, using benthic photoquadrats collected on Kiritimati’s forereefs from 2007 to 2019. Additionally, I conducted a literature review to establish what is already known about soft coral and disturbances, to compare Kiritimati data to that found in the literature. I show that soft corals are grossly understudied, with only a fifth (19/94) of coral studies presenting any results of heat stress effects on soft corals, and even fewer (5%) presenting taxonomic-specific results. On Kiritimati, prior to the 2015/2016 El Niño, soft corals were more common at sheltered sites with lower net primary productivity, but no effect of local disturbance was found. Soft corals were, however, highly vulnerable to heat stress, with a documented complete loss after the heatwave. I also show that soft coral skeletons persisted for years after the heatwave and provided substrate for hard coral recruitment. In Chapter 3, I examined how local and global stressors affected coral diversity, using community composition photoquadrat data collected from 2013 to 2017, and developed a conceptual framework for understanding effects of multiple stressors, when there are both discrete and continuous stressors. Coral alpha diversity (assessed as Hill diversity) exhibited a non-linear relationship with local anthropogenic stress, peaking at intermediate levels, and was negatively impacted by the marine heatwave, such that sites tended to decrease in both coral richness and evenness. Coral beta diversity (assessed as community composition turnover) was significantly impacted by both stressors, but sites exposed to higher levels of anthropogenic stress tended to experience less turnover during the heatwave. Explicitly considering the relationships between the two stressors, I found that it varied depending on the intensity of anthropogenic stress and the diversity metric (i.e., richness vs. composition) examined. For Hill-Richness, I found a tipping point at moderate levels of local anthropogenic stress, below which there was an additive response and above which the response tended towards synergy. In contrast, for Hill-Shannon and Hill-Simpson the responses were additive and there was an antagonistic effect between stressors for community composition. By using the frameworks outlined in this thesis for reporting changes to soft coral due to disturbances, and examining relationships between discrete and continuous stressors, we may better predict how reefs will look in the future and what actions will conserve and assist in the recovery of coral reef ecosystems. / Graduate / 2022-08-10

A inicios del año 2017, la costa peruana fue escenario de El Niño Costero, presentando lluvias excepcionales que causaron el incremento del caudal de los ríos, provocando desbordes y consecuentemente, inundaciones. La provincia de Huarmey fue fuertemente impactada, siendo el sector agrícola uno de los más afectados. Ante esta problemática, el objetivo de esta investigación es evaluar los impactos de dicho evento en términos de las características de suelo y la extensión de áreas agrícolas. La metodología utilizada consiste en el reconocimiento y delimitación del área de estudio para definir transectos en los que se levantó el perfil topográfico y se recolectaron muestras de suelo para analizar posteriormente las propiedades físicas y químicas en el laboratorio. Se hizo un análisis espacial-temporal con métodos de teledetección, cartografía e información de campo para calcular la extensión de áreas agrícolas afectadas, identificar estructuras y cambios en la dinámica fluvial. Los resultados de las características de suelo fueron heterogéneos. No fue posible calcular el impacto sobre estos debido a la ausencia de información previa al evento y tampoco se pudo distinguir un patrón determinado entre áreas afectadas y no afectadas. En términos de extensión, la pérdida de tierras agrícolas fue de 155 hectáreas ubicadas principalmente en los márgenes del río. Se concluye que los impactos de las crecidas durante El Niño Costero se manifiestan principalmente en la geomorfología, con pérdidas de tierras agrícolas, una dinámica de canales entrelazados reordenados y unidades geomorfológicas (barras y terrazas) como resultado. Pese a que no se pudo estimar el impacto en la calidad de los suelos agrícolas, la información obtenida queda como base para futuras comparaciones temporales y/o espaciales.

La presente investigación describe y analiza las diferentes actividades de artes plásticas que son implementadas en las experiencias de aprendizaje, y cómo estas favorecen el desarrollo de la motricidad fina de los niños de 3 años de una institución educativa pública de Lima. Es así que, a lo largo del marco teórico, se exponen las artes plásticas aplicadas en educación infantil y sus diversas funciones en los procesos formativos; encontrando que las más recurrentes en las sesiones son la pintura, el dibujo y la escultura, cada una de ellas con sus respectivas técnicas. Del mismo modo, se hace una breve conceptualización de la motricidad fina y sus características dentro de la edad mencionada, además de recalcar su importancia para el desarrollo integral de niños y niñas. Finalmente, se detallan los múltiples beneficios que tienen las artes plásticas en el logro de ciertas habilidades motrices finas, específicamente en la manipulación de objetos, fuerza o presión, función pinza y coordinación viso manual; aspectos que se evidencian en el material audiovisual revisado para la elaboración del trabajo. A modo de cierre, se comparten las conclusiones y recomendaciones finales propuestas a partir de la información obtenida durante el proceso de recojo de datos y posterior análisis. / This researsh describes and analyzes the different plastic arts activities that are implemented in learning experiences and how they favor the development of fine motor skills in 3 year old children from a public educational institution in Lima. Thus, throughout the theoretical framework, the plastic arts applied in early childhood education and their various functions in the training processes are exposed, finding that the most recurrent in the sessions are painting, drawing and sculpture, each with their respective techniques. In the same way, a brief conceptualization of fine motor skills and its characteristics is made within the mentioned age in addition to emphasizing its importance for the integral development of boys and girls. Finally, the multiple benefits that the plastic arts have in the achievement of certain fine motor skills are detailed, specifically in the manipulation of objects, force and pressure, pincer function and manual visual coordination, aspects that are evident in the audiovisual material reviewed for the preparation of the work. By way of closing, the conclusions and final recommendations proposed are shared based on the information obtained during the data collection process and subsequent analysis.

El Niño (EN) es un evento climático que se presenta en forma irregular como un calentamiento anómalo del mar peruano y cuyas manifestaciones en ocasiones pueden ser catastróficas en el Perú. La esencia de la dinámica de El Niño es la interacción física entre el océano y la atmósfera y es importante su entendimiento para poder mejorar la capacidad de predicción de este fenómeno. Como físico, mi actividad profesional ha sido fundamentalmente la investigación científica y el foco principal de esta ha sido la física del sistema climático, particularmente sobre El Niño. Este informe resume mis contribuciones científicas en lo que se refiere al conocimiento de El Niño, así como sus impactos en el Perú y la influencia del cambio climático.

Luego de casi tres décadas de que el desarrollo sostenible haya sido definido como el desarrollo que satisface las necesidades de las generaciones presentes sin comprometer la habilidad de las futuras para satisfacer sus necesidades por la Comisión Mundial sobre el Medio Ambiente y el Desarrollo en su informe titulado “Nuestro Futuro Común”, se debe destacar que, aunque se han registrado mejoras en el ámbito económico, éstas no han ido a la par con avances a nivel social (en especial en cuanto a la equidad) y un buen manejo ambiental. Con relación a este último aspecto, actualmente se habla de que se están produciendo alteraciones en el clima del mundo. “En general, los expertos están de acuerdo en que la Tierra se está calentando” (OMM s/f) y “la influencia humana en el [calentamiento del] sistema climático es clara” (IPCC 2015: 2). En ese sentido, el cambio climático se ha convertido en un factor de riesgo para el desarrollo sostenible en nuestro país pues afecta a las tres dimensiones del mismo (ambiental, social y económica). Por lo tanto, la gestión de dicho riesgo se ha vuelto una necesidad. Es así que se están llevando a cabo esfuerzos desde el Estado para lograr la adaptación y la mitigación. Sin embargo, el trabajo se está realizando a un nivel macro y todavía no se logra la mayor participación de un actor muy importante como es el sector privado, es decir, las empresas privadas. De otro lado, de la revisión realizada de la literatura asociada al tema se ha determinado que, si bien hay trabajos que buscan determinar y/o estimar los efectos económicos negativos del cambio climático en el Perú, todavía no se han desarrollado estudios sobre los impactos negativos que el cambio climático puede tener en el sector manufactura lo cual es preocupante pues dicha actividad tiene una significativa participación en el PBI del país y es una fuente importante de generación de empleo. En consecuencia, la presente investigación al centrarse en la identificación de las alternativas para gestionar el riesgo frente al cambio climático de las que disponen las empresas privadas peruanas del sector manufactura que elaboran harina y aceite de pescado, pretende, haciendo uso del enfoque de cadena de valor (el cual forma parte del marco conceptual del Biocomercio), evidenciar que esta actividad manufacturera no sólo debe buscar su sostenibilidad económica sino que también debe estar asentada sobre la sostenibilidad tanto social como ambiental para contribuir con el logro del desarrollo sostenible del Perú.