O setor brasileiro de celulose é um importante pilar da economia nacional. Só em 2010 a exportação de celulose trouxe para o País US$ 4,7 bilhões. Dada a sua importância, este setor já foi alvo de vários estudos de competitividade. No entanto, a mudança no cenário concorrencial global, marcada pela entrada de novos agentes, requer uma avaliação da posição competitiva do Brasil frente aos concorrentes emergentes. Neste contexto, este trabalho teve como objetivo identificar os novos players, descrever a dinâmica concorrencial nos principais mercados, propor ferramentas adequadas para avaliar os resultados dos países exportadores de celulose de fibra curta, e explicar as razões de liderança entre os países exportadores. A fim de mensurar os resultados dos países fornecedores, foi empregada uma função de subcusto translog restrita para obtenção da elasticidade de substituição entre as polpas de fibra curta dos principais países exportadores. Para essa análise foram considerados, separadamente, os mercados americano e chinês. Os resultados obtidos foram analisados levando-se em conta aspectos técnicos da polpas de fibra curta, com foco na morfologia das fibras, e também o histórico de formação dos setores de celulose no Brasil, na Indonésia (fornecedor emergente, principal fornecedor de celulose de fibra curta para a China) e no Canadá (fornecedor tradicional de celulose, principal concorrente do Brasil nos Estados Unidos). Foram também avaliadas as barreiras de mercado à polpa indonésia a partir do testemunho de funcionários e dirigentes de fábricas de papel na América do Norte, Europa e Ásia. As observações feitas sobre a organização setorial e tecnológica dos concorrentes foram comparadas aos modelos correntes de catch up tecnológico a fim de se identificar comportamentos que contribuam para a extensão da teoria nesta área. Os resultados do trabalho indicam que a competitividade brasileira no setor de celulose se apoia na produtividade florestal, resultado da acumulação de competências tecnológicas relacionadas ao eucalipto. Isso garante a competitividade brasileira frente aos concorrentes tradicionais. Frente à polpa indonésia, que vem acumulando competências tecnológicas relacionadas à acácia, a polpa brasileira é competitiva hoje. A manutenção da competitividade da polpa brasileira frente à indonésia no futuro dependerá da intensidade de investimentos em inovação feitos por ambos os países. / Pulp industry is a mainstay of Brazilian economy. In 2010, Brazilian pulp exports totaled US$ 4.7 billion. Given its importance, this industry has been the focus of several studies on competitiveness. However, the change in the competitive global scenario, marked by the entry of new players, requires an assessment of Brazil\'s competitive position towards emerging competitors. In this context, this work aimed to identify new players, to describe the dynamics of competition in key markets, to propose appropriate tools to assess the performance of hardwood pulp exporting countries, and explain the reasons for leadership among the exporting countries. In order to measure the supplier countries results, a restricted translog subcost function was applied to obtain the elasticity of substitution between hardwood pulp from the main exporters. This analysis was performed for both the U.S. and Chinese markets. Results were evaluated considering technical features of hardwood pulp, especially fiber morphology, and also a historic appraisal of pulp industry establishment in Brazil, Indonesia (emerging supplier, main hardwood pulp supplier to China) and in Canada (traditional pulp supplier, Brazil\'s main competitor in the U.S.). Market barriers to the entry of Indonesian pulp were also assessed based on the personal testimony of employees and executives of paper mills in North America, Europe and Asia. Observations on the competitors industry and technology setup were compared to current models of technological catch up in order to identify behaviors or patterns that contribute to the extension of the theory in this area. The results of this study indicate that the competitiveness of the Brazilian pulp industry is based on forest productivity, which result from the accumulation of technological capabilities related to eucalyptus. This ensures Brazilian competitiveness against traditional competitors. Compared to the Indonesian pulp industry, which has been accumulating technological capabilities related to acacia, the Brazilian pulp is currently competitive. Maintaining the competitiveness of Brazilian pulp against the Indonesian in the future will depend on the intensity of innovation investments made by both countries.

<p>Diss. Umeå : Umeå universitet, 1989</p> / digitalisering@umu

O setor brasileiro de celulose é um importante pilar da economia nacional. Só em 2010 a exportação de celulose trouxe para o País US$ 4,7 bilhões. Dada a sua importância, este setor já foi alvo de vários estudos de competitividade. No entanto, a mudança no cenário concorrencial global, marcada pela entrada de novos agentes, requer uma avaliação da posição competitiva do Brasil frente aos concorrentes emergentes. Neste contexto, este trabalho teve como objetivo identificar os novos players, descrever a dinâmica concorrencial nos principais mercados, propor ferramentas adequadas para avaliar os resultados dos países exportadores de celulose de fibra curta, e explicar as razões de liderança entre os países exportadores. A fim de mensurar os resultados dos países fornecedores, foi empregada uma função de subcusto translog restrita para obtenção da elasticidade de substituição entre as polpas de fibra curta dos principais países exportadores. Para essa análise foram considerados, separadamente, os mercados americano e chinês. Os resultados obtidos foram analisados levando-se em conta aspectos técnicos da polpas de fibra curta, com foco na morfologia das fibras, e também o histórico de formação dos setores de celulose no Brasil, na Indonésia (fornecedor emergente, principal fornecedor de celulose de fibra curta para a China) e no Canadá (fornecedor tradicional de celulose, principal concorrente do Brasil nos Estados Unidos). Foram também avaliadas as barreiras de mercado à polpa indonésia a partir do testemunho de funcionários e dirigentes de fábricas de papel na América do Norte, Europa e Ásia. As observações feitas sobre a organização setorial e tecnológica dos concorrentes foram comparadas aos modelos correntes de catch up tecnológico a fim de se identificar comportamentos que contribuam para a extensão da teoria nesta área. Os resultados do trabalho indicam que a competitividade brasileira no setor de celulose se apoia na produtividade florestal, resultado da acumulação de competências tecnológicas relacionadas ao eucalipto. Isso garante a competitividade brasileira frente aos concorrentes tradicionais. Frente à polpa indonésia, que vem acumulando competências tecnológicas relacionadas à acácia, a polpa brasileira é competitiva hoje. A manutenção da competitividade da polpa brasileira frente à indonésia no futuro dependerá da intensidade de investimentos em inovação feitos por ambos os países. / Pulp industry is a mainstay of Brazilian economy. In 2010, Brazilian pulp exports totaled US$ 4.7 billion. Given its importance, this industry has been the focus of several studies on competitiveness. However, the change in the competitive global scenario, marked by the entry of new players, requires an assessment of Brazil\'s competitive position towards emerging competitors. In this context, this work aimed to identify new players, to describe the dynamics of competition in key markets, to propose appropriate tools to assess the performance of hardwood pulp exporting countries, and explain the reasons for leadership among the exporting countries. In order to measure the supplier countries results, a restricted translog subcost function was applied to obtain the elasticity of substitution between hardwood pulp from the main exporters. This analysis was performed for both the U.S. and Chinese markets. Results were evaluated considering technical features of hardwood pulp, especially fiber morphology, and also a historic appraisal of pulp industry establishment in Brazil, Indonesia (emerging supplier, main hardwood pulp supplier to China) and in Canada (traditional pulp supplier, Brazil\'s main competitor in the U.S.). Market barriers to the entry of Indonesian pulp were also assessed based on the personal testimony of employees and executives of paper mills in North America, Europe and Asia. Observations on the competitors industry and technology setup were compared to current models of technological catch up in order to identify behaviors or patterns that contribute to the extension of the theory in this area. The results of this study indicate that the competitiveness of the Brazilian pulp industry is based on forest productivity, which result from the accumulation of technological capabilities related to eucalyptus. This ensures Brazilian competitiveness against traditional competitors. Compared to the Indonesian pulp industry, which has been accumulating technological capabilities related to acacia, the Brazilian pulp is currently competitive. Maintaining the competitiveness of Brazilian pulp against the Indonesian in the future will depend on the intensity of innovation investments made by both countries.

There is now increasing evidence that for the U.S. economy, the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor, “sigma”, is rising over time. To account for this, we propose a microfounded model, where the evolution of “sigma”, and, hence, the shape of the aggregate production function occur endogenously. We develop a Schumpeterian growth model in which firms can undertake R&D activities that stochastically lead to the discovery of production technologies characterized by a higher elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. Improved possibilities for factor substitution mitigate the diminishment of the marginal product of capital and spur capital accumulation. Due to successful innovations, the steady state of the economy entails higher levels of the capital stock and the output good. Moreover, our numerical simulations show that the timing of innovations is important: two economies with the same steady-state elasticity of substitution between capital and labor can differ in terms of their steady-state levels of the capital stock and the output good.

Submitted by Marilene Donadel (marilene.donadel@unioeste.br) on 2018-10-23T17:20:41Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Wagner_Franca_2018.pdf: 1672761 bytes, checksum: cbabb751327c3b80926b9fbde714a9e3 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-10-23T17:20:41Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Wagner_Franca_2018.pdf: 1672761 bytes, checksum: cbabb751327c3b80926b9fbde714a9e3 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-05-14 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The global primary energy mix is mostly composed by nonrenewable resources and the use of which uses contributes to increase the greenhouse gas emissions. The consumption of oil and coal, responsible for attending 60% of the total energy demand between 1970 and 2015, is more likely to enhance the air pollution than the consumption of natural gas. Besides, some authors announce the impossibility of sustaining the demand of oil with conventional type only at around 2050, because of technical and economic constraints over the reserves. Technology has been playing a roll giving more flexibility to the interfuel substitution among fossil fuels, in many applications. That gives the opportunity to increase the share of natural gas in the primary mix, while reducing the consumptions of the other two. Moreover, the reserves of natural gas are larger in comparison with the ones of oil, allowing it to alleviate the pressure over the latter. From those perspectives, increasing the use of natural gas would contribute to reduce the negative environment externality and the extension of a possible shock to be unleashed in the energy supply. The objective of this dissertation is to seek for a substitutability between natural gas and the others fossil fuels in the primary energy demand, using the Morishima Elasticity of Substitution, between 1970 and 2015. The model started with a Translog cost function to obtain the input demand equations of each fuel and their cost share functions, applying Shephard’s lemma. The parameters of the econometric regression were estimated by the Seemingly Unrelated Regressions method, as means to measure the price elasticity, the Allen Elasticity of Substitution and the Morishima Elasticity of Substitution. The model was applied to the United States due to their significance in the global context of energy. The results showed that a single conclusion for the period as a whole is statistically insignificant. Based on own-price elasticities, there were clearly three structural brakes, statistically significant, which divided the time series in four intervals. In the interval 1970-1981, the natural gas had a complementary relation with oil and both were substitutes for coal. In the intervals 1982-1995 and 1996-2008, there was substitutability among natural gas and oil, although limited. In the most recent interval, all of the fuels were complements to each other. Putting together the elasticities of substitution and the price elasticities analysis, we conclude that factors exogenous to the free market relations, such as government interventions, were determinants to demand decisions. The lack of a continuous and consistent relation of substitution between natural gas and the other two fossil fuels, warns that the concerns presented in this work may have being neglected and a transition from a polluted and finite mix to another cleaner and renewable, bridged by natural gas, is not occurring in the world’s largest economy. / A matriz mundial de energia primária é composta predominantemente por recursos não renováveis e cujo consumo contribui para a intensificação do efeito estufa. O consumo do petróleo e do carvão, combustíveis que supriram mais de 60% da demanda total de energia entre 1970 e 2015, é mais intensivo na geração de poluentes do que o consumo do gás natural. Além disso, alguns autores datam para próximo de 2050 a impossibilidade de sustentar a demanda de petróleo, pelo esgotamento técnico e econômico das reservas do tipo convencional. A tecnologia vem dando flexibilidade para que haja a substituição dentre os combustíveis fósseis, em várias aplicações. Isso gera a oportunidade de aumentar o consumo do menos poluidor, o gás natural, em substituição aos outros dois. O gás natural também possui reservas relativamente maiores do que as do petróleo, o que permite a ele aliviar parte da pressão colocada sobre este último. Por estas perspectivas, aumentar a participação do gás natural contribui para a mitigação da externalidade ambiental e reduz a magnitude de uma possível crise causada por um choque de oferta. O objetivo geral desta dissertação é responder se há uma relação de substituição entre o gás natural e os outros combustíveis fósseis na demanda de energia primária, pela Elasticidade de Substituição de Morishima, no período entre 1970 e 2015. O modelo partiu de uma função de custos do tipo Translog para chegar às equações de demanda condicionada de cada combustível e às equações de participação de custo, aplicando o lema de Shepard. Os parâmetros da regressão econométrica foram estimados pelo método Seemingly Unrelated Regressions e usados para os cálculos das elasticidades da demanda aos preços, de substituição de Allen e de substituição de Morishima. O modelo foi aplicado aos Estados Unidos, dada a significância deste país no contexto mundial de energia. Os resultados mostraram que uma única conclusão para todo o período é estatisticamente insignificante. Com base nas elasticidades aos próprios preços, foi possível identificar três quebras estruturais, estatisticamente significativas, dividindo o período em quatro intervalos. No intervalo 1970-1981, o gás natural se mostrou complementar ao petróleo e, estes dois, substitutos ao carvão. Nos intervalos 1982-1995 e 1996-2008 foi identificada uma relação de substituibilidade entre o gás natural e o petróleo, apesar de limitada. No mais recente, todos os combustíveis tiveram relações de complementariedade. Aliando estas às interpretações das elasticidades-preço, concluiu-se que fatores externos ao mercado, como interferências de governo, foram mais determinantes para as decisões de demanda. Não ter sido possível encontrar uma relação de substituição entre o gás natural e os outros dois fósseis, de forma contínua e consistente, deixa o alerta de que as preocupações levantadas podem estar sendo negligenciadas e que a transição de uma matriz predominantemente suja e finita para outra mais limpa e renovável, mediada pelo gás natural, não está em curso na maior economia do mundo.

This thesis explores whether scanner data can be used to inform Consumer Price Index (CPI) construction, with particular reference to the issues of substitution bias and choice of aggregation dimensions. The potential costs and benefits of using scanner data are reviewed. Existing estimates of substitution bias are found to show considerable variation. An Australian scanner data set is used to estimate substitution bias for six different aggregation methods and for fixed base and superlative indexes. Direct and chained indexes are also calculated. Estimates of substitution bias are found to be highly sensitive to both the method of aggregation used and whether direct or chained indexes were used. The ILO (2004) recommends the use of dissimilarity indexes to determine the issue of when to chain. This thesis provides the first empirical study of dissimilarity indexes in this context. The results indicate that dissimilarity indexes may not be sufficient to resolve the issue. A Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) index provides an approximate estimate of substitution-bias-free price change, without the need for current period expenditure weights. However, an elasticity parameter is needed. Two methods, referred to as the algebraic and econometric methods, were used to estimate the elasticity parameter. The econometric approach involved the estimation of a system of equations proposed by Diewert (2002a). This system has not been estimated previously. The results show a relatively high level of substitution at the elementary aggregate level, which supports the use a Jevons index, rather than Carli or Dutot indexes, at this level. Elasticity parameter estimates were found to vary considerably across time, and statistical testing showed that elasticity parameter estimates were significantly different across estimation methods. Aggregation is an extremely important issue in the compilation of the CPI. However, little information exists about 'appropriate' aggregation methods. Aggregation is typically recommended over 'homogenous' units. An hedonic framework is used to test for item homogeneity across four supermarket chains and across all stores within each chain. This is a novel approach. The results show that treating the same good as homogenous across stores which belong to the same chain may be recommended.

This thesis explores whether scanner data can be used to inform Consumer Price Index (CPI) construction, with particular reference to the issues of substitution bias and choice of aggregation dimensions. The potential costs and benefits of using scanner data are reviewed. Existing estimates of substitution bias are found to show considerable variation. An Australian scanner data set is used to estimate substitution bias for six different aggregation methods and for fixed base and superlative indexes. Direct and chained indexes are also calculated. Estimates of substitution bias are found to be highly sensitive to both the method of aggregation used and whether direct or chained indexes were used. The ILO (2004) recommends the use of dissimilarity indexes to determine the issue of when to chain. This thesis provides the first empirical study of dissimilarity indexes in this context. The results indicate that dissimilarity indexes may not be sufficient to resolve the issue. A Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) index provides an approximate estimate of substitution-bias-free price change, without the need for current period expenditure weights. However, an elasticity parameter is needed. Two methods, referred to as the algebraic and econometric methods, were used to estimate the elasticity parameter. The econometric approach involved the estimation of a system of equations proposed by Diewert (2002a). This system has not been estimated previously. The results show a relatively high level of substitution at the elementary aggregate level, which supports the use a Jevons index, rather than Carli or Dutot indexes, at this level. Elasticity parameter estimates were found to vary considerably across time, and statistical testing showed that elasticity parameter estimates were significantly different across estimation methods. Aggregation is an extremely important issue in the compilation of the CPI. However, little information exists about 'appropriate' aggregation methods. Aggregation is typically recommended over 'homogenous' units. An hedonic framework is used to test for item homogeneity across four supermarket chains and across all stores within each chain. This is a novel approach. The results show that treating the same good as homogenous across stores which belong to the same chain may be recommended.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-06-02T19:33:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 SILVA_Maria_Aparecida_2013.pdf: 1779146 bytes, checksum: 4286b3a26b02309aed6d6018eb2386bd (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-05-21 / This thesis aims to investigate the relations of substitution between Saving Accounts and DI Funds during the period of December 2004 and December 2012. The Brazilian basic interest rate SELIC rate has reduced over 10 percentage points during this period. Such a downward movement affected the returns on financial assets, i.e., their "prices", defined as opportunity costs in relation to the SELIC rate. The hypothesis is that substitution relationship between Saving Accounts and DI Funds have changed over time due to different levels of SELIC rate prevailing during the analyzed period. The dual approach and the nonlinear seemingly unrelated equations model (INSUR model) are used to estimate the demands via Translog functional form. Morishima elasticities of substitution are calculated in seven points of the sample in order to measure the substitution effect over the time and to evaluate possible asymmetry of elasticities. The results confirm the hypothesis that different levels of SELIC have engendered different patterns of relations of substitution between the analyzed assets. The conclusion is that the anew relations of substitution have expanded the role of Saving Accounts as instrument of private savings over DI Funds. / O objetivo deste estudo é investigar as relações de substituição entre as Cadernetas de Poupança e os Fundos DI, entre dezembro de 2004 e dezembro de 2012, período marcado pela redução na taxa básica de juros brasileira taxa SELIC em mais de 10 pontos percentuais. Esta queda acentuada afetou as rentabilidades dos ativos financeiros, i.e., seus preços , definidos aqui em termos de custos de oportunidades em relação à própria taxa SELIC. A hipótese do trabalho é que as relações de substituição entre Cadernetas de Poupança e Fundos DI se alteraram motivadas pelos diferentes níveis de taxa SELIC praticados ao longo do período analisado. Emprega-se a abordagem dual e o modelo não linear de equações aparentemente não relacionadas (sigla em inglês, INSUR) para estimar as demandas via a forma funcional Translog. As elasticidades de substituição de Morishima são calculadas em sete pontos médios da amostra, visando avaliar a evolução das magnitudes das relações de substituição ao longo do tempo, bem como sua possível assimetria. Os resultados obtidos confirmam a hipótese de que diferentes níveis de taxa SELIC engendram padrões de relações de substituição diversos entre os dois bens monetários analisados. Conclui-se que as diferentes relações de substituição verificadas levaram à ampliação do papel das Cadernetas de Poupança como instrumentos de poupança privada em detrimento dos Fundos DI.

This paper reviews the status quo of the empirical and theoretical literature on the determinants of the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor. Our focus is on the two-input constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function. By example of the U.S., we highlight the distinctive heterogeneity in empirical estimates of σ at both the aggregate and industrial level and discuss potential methodological explanations for this variation. The main part of this survey then focuses on the determinants of σ. We first review several approaches to the microfoundation of production functions, especially the CES production function. Second, we outline the construction of an aggregate elasticity of substitution (AES) in a multi-sectoral framework and investigate its dependence on underlying sectoral elasticities. Third, we discuss the influence of the institutional framework on the determination of σ. The concluding section of this review identifies a number of potential empirical and theoretical avenues for future research. Overall, we demonstrate that the effective elasticity of substitution (EES), which is typically estimated in empirical studies, is generally not an immutable deep parameter but depends on a multitude of technological, non-technological and institutional determinants.

Les flux financiers internationaux ont connu un développement accéléré au cours des quatre dernières décennies, et le rôle du secteur bancaire dans la transformation de ces flux en moyens de financer la demande s’est accru. Or le passage d’un choc de flux, à un choc de revenu, puis à un choc de demande, génère des ajustements de type «Syndrome Hollandais»; avec variation des prix relatifs et ajustement de la structure de production, mouvement des facteurs de production, et variation des rémunérations absolues et relatives de ces facteurs. Le phénomène est d’importance pour les petites économies ouvertes preneuses de prix et exposées aux chocs exogènes. Nous conceptualisons la transmission du choc et les ajustements sur différents horizons temporels pour une économie à deux secteurs; l’un produisant des biens échangeables et l’autre des biens non-échangeables. L’économie dispose de deux facteurs de production, le travail et le capital, substituables et mobiles avec le temps. Nous testons ce cadre conceptuel sur le Liban, le Luxembourg, et l’Islande; trois pays bénéficiant de larges flux financiers internationaux avant la crise de 2008 et ayant des secteurs bancaires de tailles importantes. Nous trouvons que la direction et l’intensité des ajustements de moyen terme vont dépendre du différentiel d’intensité capitalistique entre secteurs. Sur le long terme, l’offre des facteurs va se modifier. Nous testons aussi l’impact des politiques de réserves et du marché de la monnaie et du crédit, et des politiques fiscales et structurelles. La combinaison de mesures produit de meilleurs résultats sans toutefois mettre le poids de l’atténuation des ajustements sur un seul instrument. / Foreign financial inflows have developed quickly in the past 40 years. These inflows have increased the ability of the banking sector to further finance domestic demand. The transformation of foreign financial inflows into an income and demand shock generates Dutch Disease adjustments; with change in relative prices and adjustments in the productive system, resources movement, and change in the absolute and relative remunerations of factors of production. The phenomenon is of great importance in the case of small open economies that are price takers in the international market and exposed to exogenous shocks. We conceptualize the transmission of the shock and the adjustments over different time horizons for an economy composed of two sectors; one producing traded goods and the other producing non-traded goods. This economy is endowed with two factors of production, labor and capital, substitutable and mobile as time elapses. We experiment this conceptual framework in the cases of Lebanon, Luxemburg, and Iceland; the three economies having large banking sectors and benefiting from large foreign financial inflows prior to the 2008 crisis. We find that the direction and intensity of adjustments over the medium term depend on the differential of capital intensity between sectors. Over the longer term, the supply of factors of production would change. We also simulate the impact of policy choices, with focus on reserves policies, policies of money and credit, fiscal policies, and structural policies. The combination of measures leads to better results without putting the burden of the mitigation of adjustments on one single policy instrument.