Cette thèse réalisée au sein du département finance d’HEC Paris est constituée de trois parties. La première s’intéresse à la résilience des chambres de compensation en temps de crise. C’est un travail réalisé avec François Derrien, Evren Örs et David Thesmar dans lequel nous montrons que le manque de régulation de ces acteurs conduit à une détérioration de la confiance qui leur est accordée quand les conditions macroéconomiques se détériorent. Ceci impacte alors négativement leur capacité à assurer une liquidité suffisante sur le marché interbancaire. Le deuxième chapitre porte sur l’impact de la concentration du secteur bancaire autour de quelques grands groupes sur l’allocation macroéconomique du crédit. J’y développe une approche innovante pour répondre à cette question et montre que cet impact est limité: les chocs idiosyncratiques des "big players" n’ont qu’un rôle limité dans la fluctuation du crédit aggrégé. La dernière partie est un travail réalisé avec Adrien Matray et Thomas Bourveau. Nous nous intéressons à la transmission de la culture du risque au sein du secteur bancaire et montrons que les filiales d’un groupe bancaire tendent à converger quant à leur évaluation du risque futur. En retour, cela peut amener à une sous-évaluation de ce dernier et impacter la stabilité financière. / This thesis is divided into three chapters. The first one deals with Central Clearing Counterparties (CCPs) and their resiliency in crisis times. This is a joint work with François Derrien, Evren Ors and David Thesmar. Focusing on CCPs backed repo trades during the eurozone crisis, we show that the market factored in the default of CCPs. In turn, this affected their capacity to ensure liquidity in the interbank market. Our results have strong consequences for the way CCPs should be regulate. The second chapter aims at quantifying the impact of the rise of the concentration in the banking sector on aggregate credit fluctuations. Building on novel empirical approach, I show that big players’ idiosyncratic shocks have a limited impact on aggregate credit. The explanation lies in the fact that the strength of banking groups idiosyncratic shocks is limited compared to aggregate and subsidiaries level ones. The last chapter, a joint work with Thomas Bourveau and Adrien Matray, focuses on the transmission of corporate risk culture. We show that subsidiaries of the same banking group tend to assess future risks in similar ways. In turn, this gives insights on how banking crisis can spread be fueled by corporate risk culture.

Sovereign debt crisis is a major event in the history of European monetary and fiscal integration. On the one hand, the crisis has shown weak points of monetary and fiscal governance, but on the other it has proven to lead to more integration in this sector. One of the solutions which led to more integration and was meant to prevent another crisis is the Fiscal Compact. The goal of the Fiscal Compact was to update the "rules of the game" to better fit the reality of post-crisis Eurozone. Crises can unfold and uncover governmentality patterns; the goal of the diploma thesis is to reconstruct these patterns using Foucaldian governmentality conceptual toolbox. The thesis will use the concept of political technologies and techniques to interrogate speech by Mario Draghi that he delivered at the Ludwig Erhard lecture in 2011. Following the identification of political techniques and technologies reflecting ordoliberalism, the thesis will continue with an analysis of microsites of fiscal councils. The goal of the analysis of microsites is to trace the operation of governmentality in the fiscal domain. The overreaching goal of the analysis is to problematize a view, postulating that the solution to the sovereign debt crisis reflects sovereign power.

The literature on nexus between trade and business cycle synchronization have provided mixed and weak evidence of the effect of trade on business cycle synchronization as a result of lack of value-added bilateral trade data which provides solution for overestimation or underestimation of shock exposure when using gross trade data. Also, due to limited data on sectoral bilateral value-added trade, the literature has not been able to pinpoint the sectors where synchronization is necessary in order to economically direct all effort to these sectors in forging economic integration. The paper uses value-added trade data to examine the impact of trade on business cycle synchronization at the aggregate level and sector level and find a highly significant and highly positive effect of trade on the aggregate level. Estimates for agriculture, manufacturing, construction, total business, electricity gas and sewer, and other service sectors yield a positive significant effect in the service sector, indicating that attention should be focus on the service and business sector when integrating economically.In this paper we examine output cycle synchronization patterns of the countries that joined the Eurozone later and countries that are in preparation or committed to join in relation to the original Eurozone members. We analysis this in the contest of before, during and recovery periods of the global financial crisis investigate the differences in the patterns of synchronization for late and future members of the Eurozone. For more understanding, we examine the pattern on disaggregate level using data for agricultural, manufacturing, construction, utility, total business and other services sectors from 1995-2015. Also, we examine the importance of trade on output synchronization both on the aggregate and disaggregate level using System GMM which not only solves the problem of endogeneity, but it estimates the persistence of business cycle synchronization efficiently. The result provides evidence of a positive persistence; however, synchronization pattern differs between late and future member states. Also, the financial crisis had a negative effect on synchronization in the European sub region as result the difference in the response by member states. The result shows a weak evidence of the importance of trade as a channel of synchronization. Even though previous studies have provided evidence improvement in UK and the Eurozone output comovement, Brexit came to pass. This has questioned the potency of the Enlargement of the Eurozone Initiative. This paper reexamines the degree of business cycle synchronization between the Euro area countries and United Kingdom in attempt to find an economic reason for Brexit. We also examine if the disaggregate economy have share similar pattern as the aggregated economy using the output synchronization in the agricultural, manufacturing, constructions, utility, total business and other service sectors between the euro area countries and United Kingdom. Using valued-added trade data between 1995 and 2015 from WTO-TiVA database we further examine effect of trade (sectoral trade) on the output (sectoral output) synchronization. Furthermore, we analyze the same questions in the contest of before and after the global financial crisis. The result show that the UK-EMU trade channel is no important to the output cycles synchronization. Also, due the unstable pattern or persistence of UK-EMU synchronization the EMU will have little effect from the Brexit if there exit one.

The Euroscepticism is a very popular issue now. Its popularity has risen because of inability of European states to solve the crisis since the start of the Eurozone crisis. This thesis is based on analysis of party program documents and other statements. It attempts to capture the increase in Euroscepticism among German political parties. The public opinion is taking into account as well. Germany has become one of the main actors in the search for ways out of the crisis. This role associated with some financial burden has led to series of discussion and to the growth of skepticism among the political parties. The European Stability Mechanism was the one of the most discussed topics. The crisis provoked uncertainty and skepticism among the German public as well. This scepticism was largely influenced by the actual situation in the Eurozone. In direct response to the crisis a new political movement was created. It was called the Alternative for Germany. The Alternative for Germany rejected remaining in the Eurozone. It reached some success in provincial elections in 2014. There were more reasons for its success which not just correspondent with its eurosceptic agenda. The thesis identifies these reasons as well. Despite this situation, Germany remains a pro-European state.

Bibliografický záznam JUHÁS, Tomáš. France and the reform of the eurozone - from Sarkozy to Hollande. Praha, 2015. 68 s. Diplomová práce (Mgr.) Univerzita Karlova, Fakulta sociálních věd, Institut mezinárodních studií. Katedra západoevropských studií. Vedoucí diplomové práce Doc. JUDr. PhDr. Ivo Šlosarčík, LL.M., Ph.D. Abstract The thesis seeks to map and explain the change of mind of President François Hollande with regard to the overall austerity in the eurozone. In early 2012, the President-to-be Hollande campaigned on a wave of desire for change and his campaign promises and election program promised a radically new approach towards economic and fiscal policies in the eurozone once he became president. The most explicit manifestation of this change should have been the renegotiation of the fiscal compact, formally the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union. However, once in office, the new socialist president made very little to change the overall course of austerity at home and in the euro area. To explain this unexpected outcome, the thesis employs the sociological-political concept of the field of Eurocracy, derived from the sociology of Pierre Bourdieu and developed in the French academia by Didier Georgakakis and Jay Rowell. In such context, President...

This thesis consists of three empirical essays in financial economics, with particular focus on the European Union and the Eurozone. The thesis investigates topics related to market liquidity and integration. In particular, it covers the transmission of liquidity shocks across Eurozone markets, the role of market liquidity in the repurchase programme and integration of Eurozone economies in terms of welfare gains from trade. Liquidity and integration have received considerable attention in recent years, particularly within the context of global financial and macroeconomic uncertainty over the last decade. In the first empirical essay, we investigate static and dynamic liquidity spillovers across the Eurozone stock markets. Using a generalised vector autoregressive (VAR) model, we introduce a new measure of liquidity spillovers. We find strong evidence of interconnection across countries. We also test the existence of liquidity contagion using a dynamic version of our static spillover index. Our results indicate that the transmission of shocks increases during periods of higher financial turbulence. Moreover, we find that core economies tend to be dominant transmitters of shocks, rather than absorber. The second essay investigates the role played by market liquidity in the execution of open-market share repurchases in the UK which is the most active market within the EU for this payout method. Using a unique hand collected data set from Bloomberg Professionals, we find that the execution of share repurchases does not depend on the long-term underlying motive, but it rather relies on market liquidity and other macroeconomic variables. We also provide a methodological contribution using censored quantile regression (CQR), which overcomes most of the econometric limitations of the Tobit models, widely employed previously within this literature. The third essay quantifies the welfare gains from trade for the Eurozone countries. We apply a trade model that allows us to estimate the increase in real consumption as a result of trade between countries. We estimate welfare gains using two sufficient aggregate statistics. These are the share of expenditure on domestic goods and the elasticity of exports with respect to trade cost. We offer a methodological contribution for the estimation of elasticities by applying the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) using a gravity model. PPML allows the estimation of gravity models in their exponential form, allowing the inclusion of zero trade flows and controlling for heteroskedasticity. Previous studies present several econometric limitations as a result of estimating gravity models in their log-linearised form. Our results indicate that joining the euro did not significantly increase trade gains for member countries. Nevertheless, differences across countries are significant and Northern economies experience a higher increase in welfare gains trade as compared to Southern economies.

This study aims to analyze the policy success of the two economic adjustment programmes introduced to solve the Greek debt crisis to better understand the EU's change and development after dealing with crises. The analysis uses McConnell’s (2010) policy evaluation framework, which enables the study to see what degree/spectrum of policy success occurred and which of the five policy areas were more or less successful. The findings of this study conclude that the crisis management policies are leaning towards the spectrum of success and that there is an incentive to suggest that policy success is a factor contributing to the EU's organizational change and development, but that more research is needed to confirm it as a significant factor. Furthermore, the study does reveal which policy success areas can be a bigger cause for the EU’s change and development, them being more achieved implementation, the targeted policy group/actor seeing benefit without damaging other groups/actors, and there being minor opposition aimed towards the policies introduced in crises.

This study offers a reinterpretation of the so-called Eurozone crisis, arguing that its crisis character is overstated and that it is rather a normal stage in the process of European banking sector integration. Particularly, I maintain that it is neither a sovereign debt crisis caused by profligate peripheral governments, nor a crisis of the Eurozone's common monetary policy. Nor, however, are the Eurozone's low growth, high unemployment, and economic and political instability deliberate policies, whether by German or Greek governments, European institutions, or the European banking circuitry. Rather, I trace the Eurozone's low growth and high unemployment back to what I call transpositions. Transpositions change the possible boundaries of perceiving political and economic situations by altering the syntagmatic structure governing their intelligibility. The shift from 2003-2007 'boom times' to post-2007 'times of crisis' is one such transposition, which occurs behind the backs of human actors and thus forms the horizon of possible behavior of market and political actors. The Eurozone's 'crisis' transposition, results in differentiations within the asset class of Euro-denominated sovereign debt between a 'core,' comprising Germany, Austria, Latvia, and Finland, among others, and a 'periphery,' encompassing Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain, and Cyprus. It follows that the solvency of Eurozone member states is a derivative function of banking sector liquidity, reversing the conventional 'sovereign debt crisis' explanation to what I call the country-fundamental transposition. The second transposition I explore is the austerity transposition. I maintain that the Eurozone's real economy is more interconnected than conventional narratives of European economic unification allow, and that supposedly national European economies – including particularly that of Germany – are integrated subcircuits of Europe's real economy. Constituting them as supposedly national economies is itself a transposition, necessary for the preservation of the European banking circuitry's interconnected balance sheets. Yet, the austerity transposition goes further, beyond a form of political economy oriented towards growth and sustainability, and into a moral economy of condemnation differentiating between morally virtuous and morally pernicious economies in the Eurozone. Its destructive effects are therefore neither irrational nor the result of a German hegemonic agenda, but that of the Eurozone's post-2007 syntagmatic structure. / Ph. D.

Yes / After Brexit, EU national leaders can no longer escape the need to implement structural reforms and improve Eurozone governance. Since the start of the crisis, considerable progress has been made to stabilise EMU, but the current status quo is not an adequate answer to the challenges ahead. As in other domains of European interest, lack of initiative and reform is only fuelling populism. The ECB has contributed greatly to making up for the lack of policy coordination, insufficient structural reforms, and lack of progress in Eurozone economic governance. But its policy impact has been limited by these shortcomings and it has frequently been under fire for having had to take extraordinary measures. This paper, first, considers the initial flaws of the monetary project and the progress made since an EMU a minima was launched in 1999. Second, it examines the measures needed to make the long-term functioning of the euro area sustainable, and analyses the range of issues and choices that policymakers and political leaders need to face to stabilize EMU whilst addressing the often structural lack of competitiveness encountered among Eurozone members. Finally, it formulates recommendations on how to improve the workings of EMU without further postponing action.

The 2008 eurozone financial crisis has only worsened as of summer 2011 raising questions about the economic future of the eurozone and sending shock waves through economies around the world. Greece was the first state to receive a bailout from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, surprisingly followed only six months later by Ireland. The goal of this thesis is to analyze the challenges posed to smaller, weaker economies within the eurozone, specifically Greece and Ireland, since the recent eurozone financial crisis. This study is based on the experiences of both Greece and Ireland as very different members of the single currency. How and why did these states meet the criteria for euro convergence? To what extent was there support for the euro in both countries in the past? To what extent is there support today after the near collapse of both economies and the rescue packages brought about by the EU? As a result of the recent financial crisis, Greece and Ireland are facing difficulties with the terms of European economic and monetary union. Since these smaller economies are, among other reasons, unable to devalue the currency in order to regain economic competitiveness as members of the single currency, they are recognizing that the eurozone's economic structure may not adequately address their national economic vulnerabilities during times of crisis. Because of this and the worsening economic conditions in both Greece and Ireland in 2011, I hypothesize that these states are "fraying" the edges of the eurozone, or increasingly degrading the eurozone's specific economic relationships, and demonstrating this through a growing skepticism of the economic benefits to smaller, weaker economies as members of the eurozone. Additionally, citizens of both states are indicating this skepticism by increasingly separating from the parties and policies that support eurozone membership in their states, as demonstrated by the political shifts in each state since the crisis began. In order to study the phenomenon of "fraying" and address the question of the challenges posed to the smaller, weaker economies and their incorporation into the eurozone, I analyze the effects of the debt crisis in Greece and Ireland in terms of the EU/IMF bailouts, the austerity measures each state took in response to the crisis, and the resulting national political changes. I found that neither Greek nor Irish citizens were unequivocally growing skeptical of their membership in the single currency. In fact, citizens in both states still support the idea of the euro. However, there did appear to be a certain element of dislocation of support between these two states and the eurozone in the aversion each has to the terms of their bailouts. The empirical work to study this question includes secondary scholarly reading, national and supranational monetary and political policy analysis, and analysis of national and supranational economic indicators. The three main topics analyzed in this study are the EU/IMF bailouts, the austerity measures taken in each state due to the crisis, and what may be the resulting national political changes. The effects of the three key issue areas discussed in this thesis are studied in both Greece and Ireland. / Master of Arts