This diploma paper describes the process of managing of exchange rate risk in an export company. At the beginning of the work there is short overview of the basic concepts of the exchange rate theory. The next part is focused on the determination of the exchange rate and on the basic methods of exchange rate prediction -- fundamental, technical and psychological analyses. These chapters are followed by the next steps in the process of the exchange rate risk managing with a view to the analyses of the firm's exchange exposition (especially to its quantification) and to instruments used to exchange rate hedging (especially to currency derivatives). In the end of the diploma paper there is a brief summary of development of the financial crises 2008/09 with reference to its influence on the exchange rate of the Czech crown to Euro.

對一些退休基金或是壽險基金來說，因為它們的金額都相當龐大，進而影響的層面也相當廣泛；它們影響著金融市場的發展、有價證券的價格和市場的報酬。 所以，對現今市場投資在這樣長期資產的投資策略而言，以下我們要討論的議題將是非常重要。 以前的退休基金管理計畫是建立在單期的假設當中。根據目前所持有所有資產的部位、目前市場的狀況與對未來報酬的期望，基金管理人將尋求對下期的最適投資決策。傳統的方法都是用期望值-變異數方式(Mean-Variance approach)去極大化投資的報酬，以求取最適部位。但是單期的期望值-變異數方式(Mean-Variance approach)面對了二個問題： 一、 集合各個單期最適決策用多期的眼光來看不一定是最適。 二、 單期最適決策並不能同時處理投資面與集資面的問題。例如：退休基金同時間有每月的收入與每月的投資面。 不像單期的投資方式，使用多期的投資方法比較能符合這樣的投資問題與要求，也比較具有合理性。 投資在長期資產的部位與報酬率，最容易受到利率變動的影響。換句話說，利率變化是影響投資在長期性資產的最大變因。因此，我們將討論的問題：在利率是隨機變動時，以Vasicek (1977)的利率模型為主，加入投資人風險偏好的共同基金的分配原則。這樣的理論下，我們將利用風險中立的方法求出最適的投資組合，以滿足在長期投資觀點下避險與套利的需求。其中投資人的風險偏好是以Merton (1973)提出的常數相關風險偏好(Constant Relative Risk Aversion；CRRA)的效用函數去討論；在文章最後，我們將針對投資人的風險偏好做一些討論，包括：改變CRRA的參數、自然對數的效用函數(Logarithmic utility function)。 以往的研究都採用動態程式設計(Dynamic programming approach)的方法來解決這樣多期投資的問題，但是這樣的方法運用的計算相當複雜，也不一定求的出最適部位解；而利用Cox and Huang (1989)提出的風險中立方法(Martingale approach)將完全的解決以上遇到的問題。 / In this study, we investigate the dynamic mutual fund separation theorem applied to portfolio management for constant relative risk averse investors where, in particular, the interest rate risks are incorporated. Within this economy, the real interest rates and stock prices are assumed to follow the Markovian processes whose drifts and diffusion parameters are driven by certain state variables. Our approach involves the use of the martingale methodology developed by Cox and Huang (1989) as proposed in the work of Deelstra et al. (2003). Following their framework, we consider the economy of the investors that consists of cash, bond fund and stock indices. Adding to the previous works, we investigate the obtained optimal strategies through numerical examples in order to be compared to the allocations of popular advice and clarify the hedge and arbitrage demands in financial decision from long-term perspective. Finally, certain mutual funds are constructed to validate the validity of the popular advice.

The goal of thesis is to clarify the nature of the exchange rate and interest rate risk and the possibility to describe the management of these risks. It represents the individual tools used to ensure the exchange rate and interest rate risk and the specific examples explaining the principle of their functioning. The thesis is divided into three parts - the exchange rate hedging, interest rate hedging and risk management, or a summary of each procedure, a brief guide for managers of companies involved in the risk of fluctuations in exchange rates or interest rates touching. Case studies of specific examples shows the possibilities of treatment of exchange rate risk - the exporter trading currency pair EUR / CZK.

本研究主要探討台灣各類股在不同貨幣單位之下，風險報酬之間的抵換關係，以此來探討台灣各類股在面對風險情況下的特性。我們考慮的有市場風險與國家特殊風險的影響，其中市場風險為整體經濟情勢帶來的風險；而國家風險代表一個地區的獨有風險，像是政治、經濟、社會等因素所帶來的風險。在衡量風險報酬抵換關係方面，我們藉由資本資產訂價模型的概念來做實證研究，並且藉由對角BEKK模型來做報酬與風險的條件共變異數的估計。我們先估計出市場風險與報酬之間的關係，爾後再加入國家風險因子的影響，並比較在不同貨幣單位之下的估計結果，而此結果亦能代表匯率風險的影響。 實證結果顯示，各大類股在面對風險的反應不一致，其中金融類股為受風險影響最大的類股，且其市場風險係數為顯著的負值，跟理論上風險報酬為正向關係不同。而其他類股在風險與報酬關係上，有正也有負向的結果出現，故我們可得知在面對相同風險之下，各類股有其不同的反應，且在不同的貨幣單位下得到的結果也有所差異，表示匯率的確會對風險報酬關係造成影響，甚至讓風險係數從負值轉為正值，故也顯示了匯率風險的存在。研究也顯示了國家風險對於各類股的影響係數皆不大，表示台灣地區的風險尚屬穩定。而本研究或許可幫助投資人在面對風險時，能藉由各類股風險報酬關係的反應來選擇最適的投資組合。 / This study investigates the various types of stock in Taiwan under the different monetary unit, between risk and return trade-off relations, in order to investigate the characteristics of various types of shares in Taiwan in the face of risk situations. We consider the impact of market risk and country-special risk, the risks of market risk for the economic situation; country risk represents a country risk, the risks such as political, economic, social and other factors . We have empirical research done by the concept of the capital asset pricing model, and the conditions covariance estimated by the diagonal BEKK model.We first estimate the relationship between market risk , and then add the impact of country risk factors, and compare the estimation results under different monetary unit, and this results in representing the exchange-rate risk. The empirical results show that the various stocks in the face of risk response is inconsistent, which financial stocks for the greatest impact on stocks are subject to risks, and the market risk coefficient is significantly negative, difference the theory. Other stocks in the relationship between risk and returns, positive and negative results, so we can learn to face the same risks under various types of shares have different reactions, and in a different currency unit the results also different, it also shows the existence of exchange-rate risk. The study also shows the country risk coefficient of various types of shares were weak effects. This research to help investors in the face of risk, by the reactions of all kinds shares the risk and return relationship to select the optimal portfolio.

This thesis describes hedging transactions against foreign exchange rate risk which is a significant problem for a number of domestic companies trading with foreign partners. The objective of this paper is to characterize possible ways to eliminate or minimize a foreign exchange rate risk and to assess effects on economic results and liquidity of the company arising from the use of hedging instruments compared to the situation without hedging transactions. The practical analysis is shown on two Czech companies exposed to a foreign exchange rate risk. The analysis is focused on currency forwards negotiated with the bank and natural hedging in connection with an application of a hedge accounting.

Master’s thesis deals with analysis of specific business transactions, where company exchange-rate risks happen. On the basis of findings, the thesis includes the proposals of treasury instruments for exchange-rate loss minimalization.

L'objectif de cette thèse est double. Premièrement, elle vise à proposer une revue de la littérature économique s'intéressant à l'exposition au taux de change de la profitabilité des entreprises non-financières, et à fournir de nouveaux enseignements sur son hétérogénéité intra et inter-sectorielle. Deuxièmement, cette thèse analyse les stratégies de production et de produits mises en œuvre par les firmes pour se prémunir des effets de ces variations de change. Puisque l'éventail de telles stratégies est large, le dernier chapitre se concentre sur la stratégie de montée en gamme. / This thesis follows a dual objective. First, it aims to summarize previous evidence on the magnitude and channels underpinning a non-financial firm’s operating exposure, i.e. the extent to which currency fluctuations can alter a company's future operating cash flow, and to provide new highlights on the heterogeneity of this exposure across firms. Second, this thesis investigates the product and production strategies that are appropriate for coping with the economic consequences of exchange rate changes on firms’ operating profits. Since the range of these strategies is large, it focuses on providing theoretical and empirical evidence for the strategy of up-market positioning.

Abstracting from self-insurance and self-protection effects of production choices, exporting firms usually have access to a number of risk sharing markets that have an efficient risk management role. Two of the most striking results achieved from the existence of risk sharing markets are the separation theorem and the full-hedging theorem. This note examines the optimal production for exports and hedging decisions of a risk-averse firm facing both hedgeable exchange rate risk and non-hedgeable (background) risk. While the separation property holds in this context, the full-hedging property does not.The correlation between the non-hedgeable income risk and the hedgeable foreign exchange rate risk is pivotal. We show that the concept of expectation dependence is useful in determining the optimal financial risk management.

Using a sample of 141 U.S. small-cap industrial firms, I examine the firm characteristics that influence its use of foreign exchange derivatives to hedge exchange rate risk. Companies in the industrial sector produce goods and services that are used for the production of another final product. The performance of this sector is closely correlated to the level of demand from the final consumer. I find firm size, the amount of foreign sales, and firm liquidity influence the firm's decision to use foreign exchange derivatives to hedge exchange rate risk. For those firms that hedge exchange rate risk using derivatives, a second test examines the firm characteristics that influence the extent of its hedging activities. I find the extent of hedging is influenced by the amount of foreign sales, the amount of foreign assets, and the number of foreign subsidiaries the firm operates. A final test examines whether certain firm characteristics influence its decision to use options as part of its hedging operations. I find no evidence that the firm characteristics examined herein influence that decision.

本文研究保險人於匯率風險下之最適跨期投資組合。隨著資本市場全球化發展，從事國外投資受到匯率風險之影響加劇。本研究提出動態投資組合模型，針對壽險業之利變型商品，分析保險人於匯率風險之下之最適跨期投資組合。考慮資產集合包含本國現金、本國指數型股票基金、外國現金和外國指數型股票基金四項標的。本文研究方法主要以Cox & Huang(1989, 1991)平賭理論處理最適投資議題，將多期問題變為單期，求得保險人之最適投資組合。最後本文針對不同的匯率走勢與匯率風險波動度，利用電腦模擬，觀察不同風險趨避程度保險人之投資組合變化。 本文結果歸納如下： 1. 於風險市場價值、波動度和國內外無風險短期利率為定值下，保險人最適組合分別是擁有固定比例本國股票部位，外國股票部位則與匯率走勢呈負相關，而本國現金部位與外國現金部位呈現相反趨勢。發現匯率增量趨勢與外國現金帳戶、外國指數型股票基金和本國現金部位趨勢相同。 2. 匯率風險將影響保險人持有外國資產意願。若匯率風險波動度由0.1提高至0.3，則外國現金部位之最大值會從6.23下降到0.66。而外國股票持有部位於短期會增加，但隨著投資期限增加而逐漸遞減。同時短期增加之幅度小於外國現金減少之部分。整體而言，持有外國資產比例隨匯率風險波動度變大而遞減。 關鍵字：匯率風險、跨期投資組合、平賭理論、風險波動度、電腦模擬