Submitted by Rodrigo de Almeida Lorenzo (rodrigoalorenzo@yahoo.com.br) on 2018-08-28T11:41:08Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo_Lorenzo_Dissertacao.pdf: 463812 bytes, checksum: 011430b7b5342c9d67982e478a1edc31 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Joana Martorini (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2018-08-28T13:35:22Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo_Lorenzo_Dissertacao.pdf: 463812 bytes, checksum: 011430b7b5342c9d67982e478a1edc31 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Suzane Guimarães (suzane.guimaraes@fgv.br) on 2018-08-28T14:44:12Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo_Lorenzo_Dissertacao.pdf: 463812 bytes, checksum: 011430b7b5342c9d67982e478a1edc31 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-08-28T14:44:12Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rodrigo_Lorenzo_Dissertacao.pdf: 463812 bytes, checksum: 011430b7b5342c9d67982e478a1edc31 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-07-31 / Este artigo procura verificar se o período de incriminação e a prisão do ex-presidente do Brasil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) afetaram a evolução diária do Real frente ao Dólar americano (USD/BRL). Constitui a base de dados a taxa de câmbio Real contra Dólar americano, a taxa de câmbio de uma cesta de moedas de países desenvolvidos contra o Dólar (DXY) e uma cesta de moedas das economias em desenvolvimento contra o Dólar (EMB). Todas as informações foram obtidas por meio do terminal Bloomberg e enquadram-se o período entre 01 de dezembro de 2015 e 30 de abril de 2018. Além destes dados, foram analisadas todas as datas em que Lula se tornou réu por acusações dos crimes de lavagem de dinheiro, falsidade ideológica e ocultação de patrimônio. Verificou-se que o ex-presidente tornou-se réu em sete ações penais, foi condenado em primeira instância, em 12 de julho de 2017, condenado em segunda instância meses depois e teve seus recursos e habeas corpus negados pelas devidas instâncias da justiça federal do Brasil. Foram utilizados os modelos econométricos ARCH e GARCH a fim de verificar a volatilidade da taxa de câmbio USD/BRL devido aos impactos destas notícias. Os resultados indicam que, nas datas em que ocorreram as decisões da justiça, houve uma maior apreciação do Real frente ao Dólar Americano, em média de 0,43%. Adicionalmente, verificou-se, também empiricamente, que neste período não houve efeito na volatilidade dos mercados. Apesar do coeficiente γ ser positivo, não se pode dizer que ele é estatisticamente diferente de zero. / Literature devoted to explore if the period of incrimination and the arrest of the former President of Brazil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva affected the daily evolution of the Real against the US dollar (USD/BRL). USD/BRL, the exchange rate of a basket of currencies of developed countries against the dollar (DXY) and a basket of currencies of the developing economies against the dollar (EMB) were used. All information was extracted from a Bloomberg terminal and considers the period between December 1, 2015 and April 30, 2018. In addition to these data, we investigated all the dates in which Lula became guilty on charges of money laundering, ideological falsehood and concealment of property. We verified that the former president was guilty in seven criminal actions, he was convicted in the first instance on July 12, 2017, convicted in second instance months later and had his appeals and habeas corpus denied by the appropriate instances of the Brazilian federal court. We used the ARCH and GARCH econometric models to verify the volatility of the USD/BRL exchange rate due to the impacts of these news. The results indicate that, on the dates that the judicial decisions occurred, Brazilian Real increased value against the US Dollar, on average 0.43%. In addition, it was also empirically verified that during this period there was no effect on market volatility. Although the coefficient γ is positive, it cannot be said that it is statistically different from zero.

The main objective of the study was to determine the exchange rate volatility regime for carry trade profitability when using the South African Rand as the target currency. The study used the Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) model to test the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). The Sharpe ratio and the risk adjusted forward premium were used as the transition variables. The transition variable is a function of the transition function, which is used to determine the regime for the UIP. The LSTR model is characterised by three regimes, i.e. the lower regime, the middle regime and the upper regime. The LSTR model was tested for the short-term forward rate maturity of less than one year. The results show that the UIP hypothesis holds in the middle regime for the Rand/USD and the Rand/GBP when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable. Meanwhile, the UIP hypothesis does not hold for the Rand/Yen when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable for the forward rate maturity of one month, and it does hold for other short-term forward rate maturity of less than one year. The results for the risk adjusted forward premium as the transition variable show that the UIP hypothesis does not hold for all three currencies at various short-term forward rate maturities of less than one year. The research provides the following contributions to new knowledge: (1) Uncovered interest parity hypothesis holds in the middle regime for all periods for the Rand/USD and the Rand/GBP when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable with a short-term forward rate maturity of less than one year. (2) Currency carry trade profit taking for the Rand/USD and the Rand/GBP can be achieved in the upper regime. (3) The results for the Rand/Yen are mixed, in that the UIP hypothesis does not hold for other crisis periods as a result of negative Sharpe ratios. However, for the calm periods, UIP hypothesis holds in the middle regime for the Rand/Yen for short-term forward rate maturity of more than one month but less than one year when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable. The overall contribution of this study is that for the South African Rand as the target currency, the UIP hypothesis holds for the short-term horizon when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable and that this mostly depends more on currency than on horizon. Contrary to other researchers who found that the UIP holds in the long-term maturity with higher Sharpe ratios in the upper regime, this study proved that the UIP holds in the short-term maturity horizon. / Business Management / D.B.L.

The main objective of the study was to determine the exchange rate volatility regime for carry trade profitability when using the South African Rand as the target currency. The study used the Logistic Smooth Transition Regression (LSTR) model to test the uncovered interest rate parity (UIP). The Sharpe ratio and the risk adjusted forward premium were used as the transition variables. The transition variable is a function of the transition function, which is used to determine the regime for the UIP. The LSTR model is characterised by three regimes, i.e. the lower regime, the middle regime and the upper regime. The LSTR model was tested for the short-term forward rate maturity of less than one year. The results show that the UIP hypothesis holds in the middle regime for the Rand/USD and the Rand/GBP when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable. Meanwhile, the UIP hypothesis does not hold for the Rand/Yen when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable for the forward rate maturity of one month, and it does hold for other short-term forward rate maturity of less than one year. The results for the risk adjusted forward premium as the transition variable show that the UIP hypothesis does not hold for all three currencies at various short-term forward rate maturities of less than one year. The research provides the following contributions to new knowledge: (1) Uncovered interest parity hypothesis holds in the middle regime for all periods for the Rand/USD and the Rand/GBP when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable with a short-term forward rate maturity of less than one year. (2) Currency carry trade profit taking for the Rand/USD and the Rand/GBP can be achieved in the upper regime. (3) The results for the Rand/Yen are mixed, in that the UIP hypothesis does not hold for other crisis periods as a result of negative Sharpe ratios. However, for the calm periods, UIP hypothesis holds in the middle regime for the Rand/Yen for short-term forward rate maturity of more than one month but less than one year when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable. The overall contribution of this study is that for the South African Rand as the target currency, the UIP hypothesis holds for the short-term horizon when using the Sharpe ratio as the transition variable and that this mostly depends more on currency than on horizon. Contrary to other researchers who found that the UIP holds in the long-term maturity with higher Sharpe ratios in the upper regime, this study proved that the UIP holds in the short-term maturity horizon. / Business Management / D.B.L.

The aim of this research is to show the effects of financial liberalisation on emerging market economies, how these economies removed restrictions on financial institutions so that they can be globally integrated, and to show the flow of international finance in and out of a country. This research also illustrates how the financial system in these economies moved from being government-led to being market-led. The main finding of this research is that many countries failed to reap the benefits of liberalisation because of weaknesses in the regulatory structure, undercapitalised banks, volatile markets and contagion effects. The research concludes that the long-term gains of liberalisation certainly supersede short-term instability of liberalisation. Thus, for financial liberalisation to have predominantly positive effects, attention should be drawn to the importance of a more prudent regulatory and supervisory environment. Furthermore, financial liberalisation must be accompanied by a sound institutional infrastructure, proper conduct of monetary and fiscal policies, a reduction in corruption, and an increase in transparency. In addition, liberalisation should be a gradual process whereby the right measures are taken in the right sequence. / Economics / M. Comm. (Economics)

Cette thèse étudie comment le taux de change effectif réel (TCER) et ses mesures associées (volatilité du TCER et désalignement du TCER) affectent la croissance de la productivité totale des facteurs (CPTF). Elle analyse également les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées agissent sur la productivité totale des facteurs (PTF). La première partie étudie comment le TCER lui-Même, d'une part, et la volatilité du TCER, d'autre part, influencent la productivité. Une analyse du lien entre le niveau du TCER et la PTF dans le chapitre 1 indique qu'une appréciation de taux de change cause une augmentation de la PTF. Mais cet impact est également non- inéaire: en-Dessous du seuil, le TCER influence négativement la productivité tandis qu'au-Dessus du seuil il agit positivement. Les résultats du chapitre 2 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER affecte négativement la CPTF. Nous avons également constaté que la volatilité du TCER agit sur PTF selon le niveau du développement financier. Pour les pays modérément financièrement développés, la volatilité du TCER réagit négativement sur la productivité et n'a aucun effet sur la productivité pour les niveaux très bas et très élevés du développement financier. La deuxième partie examine les canaux par lesquels le TCER et ses mesures associées influencent la productivité. Les résultats du chapitre 3 illustrent que la volatilité du TCER a un impact négatif élevé sur l'investissement. Ces résultats sont robustes dans les pays à faible revenu et les pays à revenu moyens, et en employant une mesure alternative de volatilité du TCER. Le chapitre 4 montre que le désalignement du taux de change réel et la volatilité du taux de change réel affectent négativement les exportations. Il démontre également que la volatilité du taux de change réel est plus nocive aux exportations que le désalignement. Ces résultats sont corroborés par des résultats sur des sous-Échantillons de pays à bas revenu et à revenu moyen. / This dissertation investigates how the real effective exchange rate (REER) and its associated asurements (REER volatility and REER misalignment) affect total factor productivity growth (TFPG). It also analyzes the channels through which the REER and its associated measurements act on total factor productivity (TFP). The first part studies how the REER itself, on the one hand, and the REER volatility, on the other hand, influence productivity. An analysis of the link between the level of REER and TFP in chapter 1 reveals that an exchange rate appreciation causes an increase of TFP. But this impact is also nonlinear: below the threshold, real exchange rate influences negatively productivity while above the threshold it acts positively. The results of chapter 2 illustrate that REER volatility affects negatively TFPG. We also found that REER volatility acts on TFP according to the level of financial development. For moderately financially developed countries, REER volatility reacts negatively on productivity and has no effect on productivity for very low and very high levels of financial development. The second part examines the channels through which the REER and its associated measurements influence productivity. The results of chapter 3 illustrate that the exchange rate volatility has a strong negative impact on investment. This outcome is robust in low income and middle income countries, and by using an alternative measurement of exchange rate volatility. Chapter 4 show that both real exchange rate misalignment and real exchange rate volatility affect negatively exports. It also demonstrates that real exchange rate volatility is more harmful to exports than misalignment. These outcomes are corroborated by estimations on subsamples of Low- ncome and Middle-Income countries

The aim of this research is to show the effects of financial liberalisation on emerging market economies, how these economies removed restrictions on financial institutions so that they can be globally integrated, and to show the flow of international finance in and out of a country. This research also illustrates how the financial system in these economies moved from being government-led to being market-led. The main finding of this research is that many countries failed to reap the benefits of liberalisation because of weaknesses in the regulatory structure, undercapitalised banks, volatile markets and contagion effects. The research concludes that the long-term gains of liberalisation certainly supersede short-term instability of liberalisation. Thus, for financial liberalisation to have predominantly positive effects, attention should be drawn to the importance of a more prudent regulatory and supervisory environment. Furthermore, financial liberalisation must be accompanied by a sound institutional infrastructure, proper conduct of monetary and fiscal policies, a reduction in corruption, and an increase in transparency. In addition, liberalisation should be a gradual process whereby the right measures are taken in the right sequence. / Economics / M. Com. (Economics)