Thesis (B.A.)--Haverford College, Dept. of Economics, 2009. / Includes bibliographical references.

Παρακάτω εξηγείται αρχικά η ανατομία μιας οικονομικής κρίσης, επισημαίνεται ο ρόλος των ασύμμετρων πληροφοριών στο χρηματοπιστωτικό σύστημα και γίνεται μια ανασκόπηση στην ιστορία των οικονομικών κρίσεων. Στη συνέχεια γίνεται προσπάθεια ανάλυσης των βασικών αιτιών της τρέχουσας κρίσης και μια σύγκριση των κρίσεων, μεταξύ αυτών και της τρέχουσας. Τέλος, παραβάλλονται μερικές ενέργειες για την αντιμετώπιση της τρέχουσας κατάστασης και την διεθνή ανάκαμψη και παρατίθεται η επίδραση που είχε η τωρινή κρίση στις επιχειρήσεις. / Below is explained at first the anatomy of an economic crisis, is pointed out the role of asymmetric information in the financial system and is made a review in the history of financial crises. Afterwards it is analyzed the main causes of the current crisis and a comparison of crises, among others and the current crisis. Finally, are presented some actions to deal with the current situation and the international recovery and is mentioned the effect that had the actual crisis in the enterprises.

Η σταθερότητα του χρηματοπιστωτικού συστήματος μπορεί να χαρακτηριστεί ως ένα δημόσιο αγαθό το οποίο ωφελεί το σύνολο της οικονομικής δραστηριότητας καθώς το κόστος μιας τραπεζικής κρίσης εκτείνεται σε όλο το φάσμα της οικονομίας. Ένα αποδοτικό τραπεζικό σύστημα με υγιή κεφαλαιακή βάση αποτελεί την καλύτερη εγγύηση για τη διατήρηση της σταθερότητας του χρηματοπιστωτικού τομέα αλλά και για την άμβλυνση των επιπτώσεων από δυσμενείς οικονομικές συνθήκες. Η ύπαρξη και η εφαρμογή ενός κανονιστικού πλαισίου ρύθμισης και εποπτείας του τραπεζικού συστήματος κατά το δυνατό εναρμονισμένου σε διεθνές επίπεδο, είναι επιτακτική δεδομένου ότι σε συνθήκες οικονομικής κρίσης μόνο οι εποπτικές και ρυθμιστικές οικονομικές αρχές μπορούν να εγγυηθούν την απρόσκοπτη λειτουργία του χρηματοπιστωτικού συστήματος. Η πρόσφατη χρηματοοικονομική κρίση 2007-2008 που ξεκίνησε από την αγορά ενυπόθηκων στεγαστικών δανείων μειωμένης εξασφάλισης στις Η.Π.Α., εξελίχθηκε στη σφοδρότερη οικονομική κρίση παγκοσμίως των τελευταίων 80 χρόνων και δημιούργησε συνθήκες ύφεσης. Ταυτοχρόνως ανέδειξε αδυναμίες του υπάρχοντος εποπτικού και ρυθμιστικού πλαισίου και οδήγησε σε μια συντονισμένη δράση των διεθνών και εθνικών εποπτικών και ρυθμιστικών αρχών και φορέων με σκοπό τη θωράκιση του παγκόσμιου χρηματοοικονομικού συστήματος. Στόχος της παρούσας συγγραφικής προσπάθειας είναι η αποτύπωση της πρόσφατης χρηματοπιστωτικής αναταραχής που ξεκίνησε από την αγορά στεγαστικών δανείων μειωμένης εξασφάλισης στις ΗΠΑ, σε συνδυασμό με την αποτελεσματική ή όχι εποπτεία από τις διεθνείς επιτροπές των παγκόσμιων χρηματαγορών. / The stability of the financial system can be considered as a public good that benefits the entire economy, as the cost of the banking crisis reaches all economic activities. An efficient banking system with rich capital base is able not only to maintain the stability of the financial sector but also to lessen the effects of adverse economic conditions. The existence and implementation of a regulatory framework for regulation and supervision of the banking system - internationally harmonized, as mush as possible - is imperative due to the fact that only the financial supervisory and regulatory authorities can ensure the smooth function of the financial system in conditions of economic crisis The recent financial crisis in 2007-2008 which started from the market of mortgage loans subordinated in U.S., became the most severe economic crisis globally the last 80 years and created recessionary conditions. At the same time, the economic crisis shew off the failures of the existing supervisory and regulatory framework and led to a concerted action from national and international supervisory and regulatory authorities in order to shield the global financial system. The objective of this survey is to describe the recent financial turmoil that started from the mortgage market subordinated in U.S., in combination with the effective or not supervision from the international committees of the global financial markets.

Η πρόβλεψη χρονοσειρών και μάλιστα αποτελούμενων από χρηματοοικονομικά δεδομένα έχει αποτελέσει αντικείμενο εκτεταμένης ερευνητικής δραστηριότητας. Στη χρηματοοικονομική επιστήμη, η ανάλυση χρονοσειρών εφαρμόζεται ευρέως για την πρόβλεψη των τιμών των διεθνών και εθνικών χρηματαγορών αλλά και σε εφαρμογές σχετικές με τη διαδικασία πρόβλεψης χρηματοοικονομικών κρίσεων. Η βασική διαφοροποίηση της διατριβής αυτής έγκειται στο αντικείμενο της πρόβλεψης· αντί της επικέντρωσης στην εύρεση της μελλοντικής τιμής μίας χρονοσειράς, οι παραγόμενες προβλέψεις στοχεύουν στον χρονικό εντοπισμό του μελλοντικού σημείου στο οποίο μία χρονοσειρά αναμένεται να βελτιστοποιηθεί τοπικά. Η παρούσα διατριβή πραγματεύεται την εισαγωγή μίας τεχνικής οπισθοδρόμησης η οποία εξομοιώνει διάφορες τεχνικές βελτιστοποίησης. Οι προτεινόμενες παραλλαγές της τεχνικής οπισθοδρόμησης καταλήγουν στη δημιουργία μεθοδολογιών οι οποίες στοχεύουν στην επίλυση προβλημάτων εντοπισμού του χρόνου παρουσίασης του τοπικού μελλοντικού βέλτιστου της εξεταζόμενης χρονοσειράς. Επιπλέον, η τεχνική προσφέρει και μεθοδολογικό πλαίσιο προς εξέταση του ζητήματος της ex ante πρόβλεψης μίας χρηματοοικονομικής κρίσης. Από την επενδυτική σκοπιά, οι πληροφορίες αυτές μπορεί να αποτελέσουν χρήσιμο εργαλείο υιοθέτησης επενδυτικής στρατηγικής και διαχείρισης χαρτοφυλακίου. Τέλος, η εμπειρική έρευνα καταλήγει στην εφαρμογή της προτεινόμενης τεχνικής σε δεδομένα από βασικές χρηματοπιστωτικές αγορές σε παγκόσμια κλίμακα αλλά και στην εγχώρια αγορά. / Time series prediction, especially in the case of financial time series, has attracted major research interest. In finance, time series analysis is applied widely for the purposes of predicting prices of international and national markets; also it is used for the prediction of financial crises. This thesis differences in the prediction’s objective; instead of focusing on the time series’ future price it aims on detecting the future time that the time series is expected to be locally optimized. This thesis introduces a backtracking techniques that integrates elements of specific optimization techniques. The introduced variations of the technique generate methodologies that confront the problem of the chronical allocation of a time series’ local optima. Moreover, the technique provides a methodological frame for the examination of the ex ante prediction of a financial crisis. Under the investment spectrum such information may provide a useful tool for the adoption of investment strategy and portfolio management. Finally the empirical research concludes with the application of the proposed techniques to data deriving from major financial international markets and the domestic market, as well.

Cette thèse étudie l’impact des stress tests bancaires sur les différents acteurs du marché. Le premier chapitre analyse comment les actionnaires et les détenteurs d’obligations bancaires réagissent à l’information transmise par les stress tests durant une période de crise. Il s’appuie sur le test de résistance conduit en 2011 par l’Autorité Bancaire Européenne (ABE) au moment de la crise de la dette souveraine. Une étude économétrique de nature événementielle révèle que les actionnaires réagissent davantage aux informations spécifiques à chaque banque alors que les détenteurs d’obligations ont en général des réactions de nature plus macroéconomique et sont plus influencés par l’impact global de la crise financière. Cependant, si on va plus loin dans l’analyse, en prenant en compte différentes catégories d’obligations, on montre que le comportement des détenteurs de dette subordonnée tend à rejoindre celui des actionnaires. Cette réaction spécifique des actionnaires et des créanciers qui en sont les plus proches démontre que ce sont les acteurs les plus à même d’exercer une discipline de marché en période de crise financière. Le second chapitre prend en compte les stress tests bancaires menés en Europe et aux Etats-Unis et analyse leur contenu informationnel à partir de leur impact sur le cours des actions bancaires. L’objectif est de déterminer si cet impact est fonction du degré d’opacité des banques. On montre tout d’abord que le marché réagit significativement à l’annonce des résultats des stress tests à la fois pour les banques testées et les banques non testées. On met ensuite en évidence une relation non linéaire entre le degré d’opacité des banques et l’impact des stress tests, indiquant que les tests ont un contenu informatif pour les banques moyennement opaques mais pas pour celles qui sont déjà très transparentes ou au contraire très opaques. Le troisième chapitre étudie l’impact de la publication des résultats des stress tests sur les divergences de notations à l’émission des obligations bancaires. On met l’accent sur les notations de Moody’s et de Standard & Poor’s concernant les obligations émises par les banques ayant participé aux différents stress tests européens et américains. L’analyse de l’évolution des divergences de rating sur les périodes avant et après chaque stress test montre que la publication des résultats peut globalement accroître ou réduire ces divergences selon le test considéré. Les agences de notation peuvent donc interpréter les résultats détaillés des stress tests différemment et leur impact n’est donc pas univoque, pouvant même provoquer plus de divergences. Cependant, dans des périodes fortement troublées, telles que celle de la crise de la dette souveraine européenne, où le marché est confronté à beaucoup d’incertitudes et à un fort besoin d’information, les résultats des stress tests conduisent à une plus grande convergence des agences sur leurs notations des obligations bancaires. / This dissertation studies the impact of banks’ stress tests on the different market players. The first chapter analyzes how stockholders and bondholders react to the information disclosed in the financial market during crisis periods. We consider the 2011 EBA stress test as it discloses detailed information about banks and it is conducted during the European sovereign debt crisis. We use an event study methodology and find that stockholders’ reaction is more specific to the information disclosed, while bondholders have generally macro reaction and are more sensible to the financial crisis. However, when we go further in our analysis by considering the different categories of bonds, we find that the behavior of subordinated bondholders tends to be closer to the behavior of stockholders. This specific reaction of stockholders during financial distress may make them more susceptible to impose market discipline when there is a financial crisis. In a second chapter, we consider European and US banks’ stress tests to analyze the information value of the stress tests using stock market prices. We investigate if the stock market reactions to the stress test results are different according tothe degree of opacity of banks. We find that the stock market reacts significantly to the disclosure of the stress tests’ results on the whole banks (tested and non-tested) meaning that the stress test transparency has an impact not only on tested banks but also on banks that do not participated to the stress test. By separating the sample of banks in less opaque and highly opaque banks, we find a non-linear relation between opacity and market reaction. The third chapter of this thesis investigates the impact of the disclosure of the stress tests results on the credit rating agencies’ split ratings on bonds issued by banks. To calculate the split rating variable, we consider bonds jointly rated by Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s and issued by banks that participated to the European and US banks’ stress tests. The analysis of the split ratings on the period before and after each stress test results disclosure in Europe and in the US shows that the stress tests have mixed effect on credit rating agencies. Market participants could interpret the detailed data disclosed by the stress tests differently and these different interpretations may create more disagreements. However, we remark that in periods of distress i.e. during the European sovereign debt crisis, because of the high information need and the greater uncertainty, the stress tests results disclosure tends to decrease the split ratings.

This paper examines the effects of the Global Financial Crisis on the relationship between unemployment and inflation rate through the Phillips Curve in five Nordic countries: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden, from 1999 to 2016. The Nordic countries are quite unique in the world, as they are all economically and culturally connected to each other, which allows us to analyse how the crisis affected them differently. The foundation of our research is the Phillips Curve, which shows an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation. By using the two-way fixed effects model, we have investigated whether the Phillips Curve and the relationship still holds during the time of the crisis for the Nordic countries. The results have shown that the relationship has changed during the crisis period, which might be due to the unemployment shock and the low targeted inflation rate.

This thesis examines whether EU and EMU memberships appeared to protect the member countries’ trade, measured in exports, during the 2008 global financial crisis. The panel data analysis is based on a country sample of 40 OECD and EU countries during the period from 2000 to 2016. By employing a pooled Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) regression and an augmented gravity model, we investigate how the EU and EMU countries’ trade was impacted in comparison to the average of the OECD countries’ trade during the crisis. The results indicate that being a member of the EU or the currency union did not pose additional protection, as the member countries’ trade seemed to be more negatively impacted by the crisis than the average trade in the OECD countries.

This thesis consists of three chapters on macroeconomics and international economics. The first studies the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium framework with financial frictions. Profit-maximizing banks with endogenous leverage ratio expand credit lending during economic booms and become increasingly vulnerable to unanticipated economic shocks. Countercyclical macroprudential instruments are found to be effective in dampening economic fluctuations and stabilizing the credit cycle. However, a policy regulating the loan-to-value ratio of the residential households causes a credit shift towards the business sector. Optimal simple rules are selected using welfare analysis to provide practical implications for the evaluation, estimation and future implementation of macroprudential policies in alleviating economic risk of financial intermediaries. The second chapter examines the impact of political risk on sovereign default. An economic model with endogenous default decisions shows that political instability increases the likelihood of sovereign default. A quantitative analysis using data from 68 countries in the period from 1970 to 2010 finds that both short and long-run aspects of the political environment have significant effects. The findings suggest that a country is more likely to experience default when i) it has a relatively younger political regime in place; ii) it faces a higher chance of political turnover; and iii) it has a less democratic political system. The third chapter investigates the bidirectional relationship between banking and sovereign debt crisis. An economic model with financial intermediaries and a government sector shows that sovereign default may cause a banking crisis as banks hold a large amount of government bonds. Nevertheless, a significant amount of bailouts or bank guarantees may constrain the short-term liquidity of the government sector and trigger a sovereign debt crisis. Empirical studies using the credit default swap spreads of the Eurozone support the two-way linkage. Quantitative results also show increasing spillover effects across borders as globalization leads to greater integration of financial markets.

A economia mundial foi abalada, em 2007-2008, por uma crise financeira internacional, que incitou um grande debate, tanto na academia quanto nas instituições multilaterais, sobre a reforma do Sistema Monetário Internacional (SMI). A presente dissertação propõe analisar se a necessidade de reforma do SMI, conforme propunha Keynes e propõe os pós-keynesianos, é uma condição necessária para restabelecer a estabilidade da atividade econômica em economias capitalistas, financeirizadas e globais, situação em que as economias estão inseridas nos dias de hoje. Para tanto, busca-se inserir a crise financeira internacional nos problemas inerentes à atual configuração do SMI e da globalização financeira, assim como se apresenta o debate acadêmico em torno das diferentes visões da crise e suas propostas de reestruturação. Ademais, retrata-se o debate que está ocorrendo nas reuniões e nas publicações das principais Autoridades Monetárias e dos órgãos multilaterais e, a partir dessa demonstração, procura-se identificar as questões presentes no diálogo entre essas instituições dentro das proposições acadêmicas de reforma. As análises feitas permitiram concluir que o debate das Autoridades Monetárias e dos órgãos multilaterais converge para a proposta de reestruturação do SMI defendida pelos autores (pós) keynesianos. Dessa forma, aceita-se a hipótese de que a reforma do SMI, nos moldes (pós) keynesianos, é condição necessária para se estabilizar as economias atuais. Por fim, sugere-se, para trabalhos futuros, a discussão institucionalista sobre a viabilidade de adoção da proposta de reforma (pós) keynesiana. / The world economy was hit in 2007-2008 by na international financial crisis, which prompted a great debate, both in academia and multilateral institution on the reform of the International Monetary System (IMS). This dissertation proposes to examine the need for reform the IMS, as Keynes proposed and proposes the (post) keynesians, is a necessary condition for resoring the stability of economic activity in capitalist economies, financialized and globalizes in which economies are embedded in today. Therefore, it seeks to enter the international financial crisis on the problems inherent in the current configuration of the IMS and financial globalization, as well as presents the acadmic debate arount the different views of the crisis and its proposals for restructuring. Furthermore, it portrays the debate taking place in meeting and publications of the mais Monetary Authorities and multilateral agencies, and from this demonstration, we try to identify the issues in the dialogue between these institutions within the academic reform proposals. The analysis made it possible to conclude that the discussion of Monetary Authorities and multilateral agencies converges to the restructuring proposal of the IMS, put forward by the (post) keynesian authors. Thus, we accept the hypothesis that the reformo f the ISM, similar to (post) keynesians, is a necessary condition to stabilize the economies of today. Finally, it is suggested for future work, the institutional discussion on the feasibility of adoption of the (post) keynesian reform proposal.

A crise financeira americana de 2008 acarretou alta na volatilidade na maioria das bolsas de valores mundo afora. Nesse trabalho, é testada e analisada a hipótese de contágio financeiro como mecanismo de transmissão da crise iniciada em 2008 dos Estados Unidos para 16 países da amostra. Por meio de modelos multivariados de volatilidade das classes BEKK e DCC e testes de quebras estruturais, conclui-se que a hipótese de contágio financeiro é verificada em todos os países estudados para justificar a alta acima do esperado das volatilidades dos mercados durante os anos de crise. Também é verificado que países apresentam diferentes graus de exposição ao risco de contágio, de acordo com nível de abertura de suas economias e participação de investimento externo em seus mercados financeiros. / The 2008 American financial crisis caused high volatility in most stock markets worldwide. In this study, it is tested and analyzed the hypothesis of financial contagion as a mechanism of transmission for the crisis beginning in 2008 in United States to the 16 countries in the sample. Using multivariate BEKK and DCC volatility models, and tests of structural breakpoints, it is concluded that the hypothesis of financial contagion is verified in all countries studied to justify volatility higher than expected in the markets during the crisis years. It is also noted that countries have different degrees of exposure to contagion, according to level of economic openness and foreign investment participation in their financial markets.