Submitted by Drusilla Taszarek (drusilla.taszarek@sciencespo.fr) on 2015-07-02T14:25:24Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Taszarek_Drusilla_ThesisFGV_MPGI.pdf: 1284647 bytes, checksum: a5fd3e51bbde438a132eaf8e43192163 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Luana Rodrigues (luana.rodrigues@fgv.br) on 2015-07-07T14:49:11Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Taszarek_Drusilla_ThesisFGV_MPGI.pdf: 1284647 bytes, checksum: a5fd3e51bbde438a132eaf8e43192163 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-07-07T15:16:06Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Taszarek_Drusilla_ThesisFGV_MPGI.pdf: 1284647 bytes, checksum: a5fd3e51bbde438a132eaf8e43192163 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-06-15 / The private equity industry was experiencing a phenomenal boom at the turn of the century but collapsed abruptly in 2008 with the onset of the financial crisis. Considered one of the worst crises since the Great Depression of the 1930s, it had sent ripples around the world threatening the collapse of financial institutions and provoking a liquidity crunch followed by a huge downturn in economic activity and recession. Furthermore, the physiognomy of the financial landscape had considerably altered with banks retracting from the lending space, accompanied by a hardening of financial regulation that sought to better contain systemic risk. Given the new set of changes and challenges that had arisen from this period of financial turmoil, private equity found itself having to question current practices and methods of operation in order to adjust to the harsh realities of a new post-apocalyptic world. Consequently, this paper goes on to explore how the private equity business, management and operation model has evolved since the credit crunch with a specific focus on mature markets such as the United States and Europe. More specifically, this paper will aim to gather insights on the development of the industry since the crisis in Western Europe through a case study approach using as a base interviews with professionals working in the industry and those external to the sector but who have/have had considerable interaction with PE players from 2007 to the present. / A indústria de private equity experimentava um boom fenomenal na virada do século, mas entrou bruscamente em colapso em 2008 com o início da crise financeira. Considerada uma das piores crises desde a Grande Depressão dos anos 30, a crise financeira havia reverberado ao redor do mundo ameaçando o colapso de instituições financeiras e provocando uma crise de liquidez seguida por um enorme declínio da atividade econômica e recessão. Além disso, a fisionomia do cenário financeiro se havia alterado consideravelmente com bancos que retiravam-se do espaço de concessão de empréstimos, acompanhados por um endurecimento das regulações financeiras que buscavam melhor conter um risco sistêmico. Dado o novo conjunto de mudanças e desafios que surgiram deste período de turbulência financeira, a indústria do private equity encontrou-se tendo que colocar em questionamento práticas e métodos correntes de operação a fim de ajustar-se às duras realidades de um novo mundo pós-apocalíptico. Consequentemente, este estudo busca explorar como o negócio, gestão e modelo operacional de private equity evoluíram desde a crise do crédito com um foco específico em mercados maduros como os Estados Unidos e a Europa. Mais especificamente, este estudo visa reunir percepções acerca do desenvolvimento da indústria desde a crise na Europa Ocidental, através de uma abordagem de estudo de caso usando como base entrevistas com professionais que trabalham na indústria e aqueles externos ao setor, mas que têm/tinham interações consideráveis com atores do PE de 2007 ao dias atuais.

Les « crises financières internationales » sont des événements forts qui remettent en cause l’ordre du secteur financier tout en impactant le reste de la société, notamment aux niveaux économique (baisse des crédits par exemple) et social (chômage par exemple). Elles présentent donc l’intérêt de situer clairement les valeurs et les normes que l’État et ses représentants défendent lorsque ceux-ci communiquent sur ces « crises ». Notre recherche s’appuie sur les activités de communication des membres de l’exécutif (les ministres et le Président de la République) pendant le « krach boursier de 1987 », la « crise asiatique de 1997-1998 » et la « crise des subprimes de 2007-2008 ». Il existe en effet un lien symbolique entre les activités de communication des membres de l’exécutif et la communication de l’État. Les ministres et le Président sont légitimes pour incarner l’État et le faire agir au travers de leurs activités communicationnelles. À partir de ce lien, il est possible de comprendre le rôle de la communication de l’État pendant une « crise financière internationale ». Cette thèse interroge la participation de la communication étatique au gouvernement de la société française. Elle porte également sur les rapports de collaboration et de concurrence que les représentants de l’État entretiennent, par l’intermédiaire de la communication, avec des acteurs différents – comme les journalistes ou les acteurs politiques d’autres États – participant à la construction d’une « crise ». En somme, notre recherche propose d’inclure la communication de l’État dans des logiques de domination et de rapports de force. / "International financial crises" are meaningful events who question the order of the financial sector while impacting the rest of the society, notably at economic (drop of credits for example) and social levels (unemployment for example). In consequence, they clearly show values and norms that the state and its representatives stand up for when they communicate. Our research is based on communication activities of the members of the executive (ministers and the president of the Republic) during the "stock market crash of 1987", the "asian crisis of 1997-1998", and the "subprimes crisis of 2007-2008". Indeed there is a symbolic link between communication activities of the members of the executive and State communication. Ministers and the President are legitimate to embody the State and make it act through their communication activities. From this link, it is possible to understand the role of the State communication during an "international financial crisis". This thesis examines the participation of State communication in the government of French society. It also addresses the collaborative and competitive relationships, through of communication, that State officials have with different actors - such as journalists or political actors of other States - involved in building a "crisis". In short, our research suggests to include the communication of the State in logics of domination and power relations.

This article examines the dynamics of bank profitability in the USA, Germany, Great Britain, France, Italy and Switzerland over the period 1993-2014. We find long-run bank profit persistence in all six countries in the period before the financial crisis in 2008. Banks with large capital ratios are persistently more profitable, and there is little evidence of a link between bank size and the persistence of bank profits. Commercial (saving) banks are persistently more (less) profitable in four of the six countries. The effects of the financial crisis in 2008 differed dramatically across countries as well as across ownership types. While US banks experienced dramatic declines in the immediate aftermath of the crisis, they recovered much faster than their European counterparts and essentially retain their long run profit potential by the year 2014.

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to show how the small banks financial stability was affected by the financial crisis 2008. Method: The study is based on a quantitative methodology where the banks financial reports have been collected for the years 2004-2014. The selection in the study includes 7 banks. Results: The study’s result shows that the financial crisis had a small impact on the banks financial stability. The result also shows that the banks credit loss ratio was slightly affected. Conclusion: In conclusion, it can be noted that the financial crisis has a minimal impact on the niche banks financial stability and credit losses. / Syfte: Syftet med studien är att studera på vilket sätt svenska nischbankernas finansiella stabilitet har påverkats av finanskrisen 2008. Metod: Studien baseras på en kvantitativ metod där sekundärdata har samlats in från utvalda nischbankers årsredovisningar för år 2004-2014. Urvalet i studien granskar 7 nischbanker. Resultat: Studiens resultat tyder på att nischbankernas finansiella stabilitet påverkades i liten grad av finanskrisen 2008. Resultatet visar även att bankernas kreditförlustnivå påverkades i liten utsträckning. Slutsats: Sammanfattningsvis kan det konstateras att nischbankernas finansiella stabilitet samt kreditförluster hade en minimal påverkan av finanskrisen.

This thesis deals with the impacts of the financial crisis on the local government, specifically on the regions and municipalities, in the Czech Republic. The first part describes the causes of the financial crisis and the particular impacts on the US. The thesis starts in the source of the crisis ? in the US, continues to the impact on the EU, but first of all it concentrates on the macroeconomic influences on the Czech Republic. The data from the information systems of Ministry of Finance, state final accounts and current legislative regulations are used to analyse the impacts on the local governments. The changes in the local budgets caused by the economic downturn are analyzed using the revenues and expenditures, which are further classified.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / The tight integration of world markets has enhanced the effects of financial crises. The financial crisis of 2007/2008, which started in the U.S. and then expanded to the rest of the world, had severe impact on virtually every market in the world and can be compared to the Great Depression occurred in 1929. This event again opened discussions about the financial crisis and its impact on various financial markets in the world. Investors have questioned the foundations upon which their decisions were founded on the risk of investing in stocks and the benefits of global diversification (BARTRAM AND BODNAR, 2009). Given this context, the aim of this study is to investigate the impacts of the capital markets of the United States in Latin American stock markets due to the crisis of 2007/2008. The empirical study on the effects of financial crises in capital markets in Latin America is divided into three parts: impacts on long-term relationship, short-term relationship and the transmission of volatility. The first part consists of the cointegration analysis of each of the Latin American markets with the United States, two by two. This analysis is performed using the cointegration test of Engle and Granger (1987). In the second phase of the study, we estimated models of vector autoregressive (VAR) and error correction (VEC) for each of the countries with the United States. In the third step, we employed the multivariate GARCH-BEKK model considering student-t distribution to model the transmission of volatility. All these models are estimated for the entire period and sub-periods before, during and after the crisis. Our results indicate that the relationships between the countries of Latin America and the United States changed due to the crisis that occurred in 2007/2008. Both the long-term relationship and the transmission in volatility between the countries of Latin America and the US were more evident in the period following the crisis than during it, revealing a greater integration between markets after the crisis. On the other hand, when we analyze the relationship between returns employing the VAR/VEC methodology, it is clear that during the crisis there was an increase in dependency lags in some markets, reducing this dependence on the period after the crisis. / A grande integração dos mercados mundiais potencializou os efeitos de crises financeiras. A crise financeira de 2007/2008, iniciada nos EUA e depois expandida para grande parte do mundo, teve severo impacto em praticamente todos os mercados do mundo, podendo ser comparada à Grande Depressão ocorrida em 1929. Esse evento abriu novamente as discussões a respeito das crises financeiras e suas repercussões nos diversos mercados financeiros do mundo. Os investidores têm questionado os fundamentos sobre os quais fundavam suas decisões sobre o risco do investimento em ações e os benefícios da diversificação global (BARTRAM e BODNAR, 2009). Tendo em vista este contexto, definiuse como objetivo geral do presente trabalho investigar os impactos do mercado de capitais dos Estados Unidos nos mercados latino-americanos devido a crise de 2007/2008. O estudo empírico a respeito do efeito das crises financeiras nos mercados de capitais da América Latina está dividido em três partes: impactos no relacionamento de longo prazo, no relacionamento de curto prazo e na transmissão da volatilidade. A primeira parte é composta pela análise de cointegração de cada um dos mercados latino-americanos com os Estados Unidos, dois a dois. Esta análise é realizada utilizando o teste de cointegração de Engle e Granger (1987). No segundo momento do estudo, são estimados modelos de vetor autoregressivo (VAR) e de correção de erro (VEC) de cada um dos países com os Estados Unidos. No terceiro passo é empregado o modelo BEKK de GARCH multivariado considerando a distribuição t-student para modelar a transmissão das volatilidades. Todos esses modelos são estimados para o período completo e os subperíodos antes, durante e depois da crise. Os resultados do estudo permitem inferir que houve mudança dos relacionamentos entre os países da América Latina e os Estados Unidos em função da crise ocorrida em 2007/2008. Tanto o relacionamento de longo prazo quanto a transmissão na volatilidade entre os países da América Latina tiveram uma resposta mais evidente no período após a crise do que durante esta, revelando uma maior integração entre mercados após a crise. Na análise do relacionamento entre retornos com a utilização do VAR e do VEC, por outro lado, percebe-se que durante a crise houve um aumento nas defasagens de dependência em alguns mercados, reduzindo esta dependência no período posterior à crise.

[pt] O Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) é o modelo mais difundido e utilizado para determinação do custo de capital de empresas e estimação do retorno esperado de ações. Neste modelo, o parâmetro fundamental é o beta, que define a intensidade em que determinado ativo é exposto aos retornos do mercado. O objetivo deste trabalho é avaliar a estabilidade dos betas de uma vasta quantidade de ações no mercado brasileiro em três períodos de alta volatilidade: a crise asiática de 1997, a turbulência no mercado financeiro pré-eleições 2002 e a crise financeira de 2008, nas quais foram analisadas 55, 79 e 172 empresas respectivamente. Cada ciclo de crise foi dividido em três períodos de 52 semanas e os respectivos betas foram comparados utilizando testes de Chow e com regressões com variáveis dummy. Os resultados de ambos os testes foram similares para as crises analisadas, indicando que entre 11 porcento e 27 porcento das empresas apresentaram variação de seus betas, com 5 porcento de significância, quando comparados os períodos pré-crise e durante a crise. Não obstante, ao confrontar períodos pré-crise e pós-crise, a maior parte das empresas que apresentaram variação anteriormente não rejeitaram a hipótese de estabilidade. Estes resultados indicam que, conforme esperado, os betas tendem a ser estáveis no longo prazo. / [en] The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is the most widespread model, used to determine the cost of capital of firms and estimate expected stock returns. In this model, the most important parameter is the beta, which defines the magnitude of exposition to market returns, for a particular asset. The objective of this essay is to evaluate beta stability of a vast amount of shares in the Brazilian stock market in three highly volatile periods: the Asian crisis in 1997, the financial market turmoil before 2002 presidential elections and the 2008 financial crisis. The sample included 55, 79 and 172 companies, respectively. Each crisis cycle was then divided into three periods of 52 weeks and then the stability of their betas was measured using regressions with dummy variables and Chow tests. We have reached similar results for the crises analyzed, indicating that between 11 percent and 27 percent of the companies changed their betas when comparing pre-crisis and during crisis periods, with a 95 percent confidence level. Nevertheless, by comparing pre-crisis and post-crisis periods, most of the companies that exhibited change in their betas when entering the crisis, did not reject the stability hypothesis. These results indicate that, as expected, betas tend to be stable in the long term.

abstract: ABSTRACT This research reveals how governments cut budgets during fiscal crises and what pattern may emerge based on the cuts. It addresses a significant gap in literature by looking into the details of an agency for a full recession period to explain how cutback requirements were met. Through investigating a large Arizona state agency during the 2008 recession in the United States, the research reveals that cutback management is a stage-by-stage process lagging the immediate deterioration of the state’s economy and that patterns found among cuts are more often rational than not. Cutbacks in this agency proceeded through three stages: the beginning, middle and the end period of cuts. In each stage, the author used descriptive analysis, process map analysis and cause and effect analysis to explore the features of cuts made. These methods of analysis were used to break down an annual budget reduction into original appropriation budget cuts, mid year reductions and the final budget cuts required to end the fiscal year in balance. In addition, the analytical methods permitted more detailed analysis of specific appropriation line items. The information used was secondary data collected from seven fiscal years around the recession and from various sources, including budgetary materials, legislation, accounting materials and many program reports related to budget cuts. The findings suggested that across-the-board cuts are implemented at the beginning of cutback stage mainly to non-mandatory programs without jeopardizing the core functions of the agency. Later, in the middle period of the recession, selective cuts are made on large programs. Fund transfers and excess balance transfers are also preferred to reduce the budgets of other restricted funds. At the end stage of budget cuts, new revenue sources are established to support programs which had relied on general fund revenues in the past. Overall, the cutback process observed in this research reflects decremental and rational patterns of decision making, contrasting with the randomness observed in previous research on cutback management. Across the board cuts are decremental; the remainders are rational, even strategic decisions. This investigation reminds researchers to be aware of the context and the level of observation when analyzing cutbacks. / Dissertation/Thesis / Doctoral Dissertation Public Administration and Policy 2018

Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-08T14:44:43Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 arquivototal.pdf: 2099418 bytes, checksum: a7be8c2ff460de911574b604c44ca931 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2011-02-11 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The capitalist world economy has experienced about a dozen serious financial crises in the past forty years, ranging between 1971, when the U.S. government, unilaterally, changes the dollar-gold relationship (which anchored the world payments system) causing the end of the management system of international trade and finance, established in 1944 in Bretton Woods, and the year 2011, when experiencing the unfolding trade, fiscal and economic of international financial crisis began in 2007, also, in USA. The internationalization of the financial system changed substantially the nature and determinants of world economic dynamics. The current financial crisis is, mainly, the crisis of financial globalization, perceived as a tendency to create a global financial market, through the financial deregulation, that allows for increased capital flows between countries. The inability to continue developing the trajectories of the financial paradigm" until late 1960 - real estate financing via savings banks - led to depletion of the financial model, as well as the adoption and generalization of radical innovation that became, in the late 1980s, the new financial paradigm: mortgage securitization. Changes caused by the introduction and proliferation of securitization in the mortgage market have created new financial players that were more suited to the new environment as well as the new logic of accumulation. The recent financial crisis cannot be regarded as a crisis point in a market segment of smaller ones - although growing - which originated in subprime mortgage defaults. This crisis was fomented for decades and corresponds to the natural unfolding of the evolutionary process of the capitalist system development. / A economia capitalista mundial experimentou cerca de uma dúzia de graves crises financeiras nos últimos quarenta anos, compreendidos entre 1971, quando o governo dos EUA, unilateralmente, altera a relação dólar-ouro provocando o fim do sistema de gerenciamento do comércio e das finanças internacionais, estabelecido em 1944 em Bretton Woods, e o corrente ano de 2011, quando se experimenta os desdobramentos comerciais, fiscais e econômicos da crise financeira internacional iniciada em 2007, também, nos EUA. A internacionalização do sistema financeiro modificou de forma substancial os determinantes e a natureza da dinâmica econômica mundial. A crise financeira atual é, principalmente, a crise da globalização financeira, apreendida como uma tendência à criação de um mercado financeiro global, através da desregulamentação financeira, que permita a intensificação no fluxo de capitais entre países. A impossibilidade de continuar desenvolvendo as trajetórias do paradigma financeiro vigente até finais dos anos 1960 financiamento imobiliário via bancos de poupança levou ao esgotamento do modelo financeiro, bem como à adoção e generalização de uma inovação radical que se transformou, no final dos anos 1980, no novo paradigma financeiro: a securitização de hipotecas. As alterações provocadas pela introdução e proliferação da securitização no mercado de financiamento imobiliário fizeram surgir novos atores financeiros que se mostraram mais adequados ao novo ambiente, bem como à nova lógica de acumulação. Desta forma, a recente crise financeira não pode ser considerada como uma crise pontual de um segmento de mercado de menor expressão embora crescente que teve origem na inadimplência das hipotecas subprime. Essa crise foi gestada ao longo de décadas e corresponde ao desdobramento natural do processo evolucionário de desenvolvimento do sistema capitalista.

Cette thèse est divisée en deux sections. La première section adresse la question sur les conséquences des interventions des politiques budgétaires sur l'économie et la deuxième section traite de la problématique de la liquidité des titres européens de la dette souveraine pendant la récente crise financière, l'effet d'un choc de liquidité sur ces titres et les conséquences des réponses politiques. Le premier chapitre étudie l'impact d'un choc de politique budgétaire discrétionnaire sur l'activité économique et d'autres variables macroéconomiques en utilisant une approche alternative à deux étapes pour l'identification d'un choc budgétaire. Le deuxième chapitre analyse conjointement les effets d'une combinaison de chocs de politique fiscale et monétaire sur les variables macroéconomiques et financières, en utilisant un modèle de Time- V arying Parameters Factor Augmented Vector (TVP-F A V AR). Le troisième chapitre étudie le rôle des titres de la dette souveraine comme collatéral dans le marché interbancaire . En particulier, dans le marché dès pensions livrées, on montre comment une augmentation des marges initiales des pensions livrées, peut représenter un canal dans la transmission des crises bancaires aux crises de la dette souveraine dans les pays de la périphérie de la zone euro. Une augmentation des marges initiales des pensions livrées, qui ont comme collatéraux les titres de la dette souveraine peut être modélisée comme un choc de liquidité sur les titres de la dette souveraine. Le quatrième chapitre analyse l'impact de ce choc dans un modèle stochastique dynamique d'équilibre général (DSGE) avec frictions financières et analyse les conséquences des mesures économiques non-conventionnelles pour restaurer la liquidité dans les marchés financiers. / This dissertation is divided in two sections. The first section addresses the question of the consequences of fiscal policy interventions on the economy and the second section analyzes the issue of the liquidity of European Government bonds during the recent financial crisis, the effect ofliquidity shock on these securities and consequences ofpolicy responses. The frrst chapter studies the impact of a discretionary government spending shock on economic activity and other macroeconomic variables by using an alternative two-step procedure for the identification of the govemment spending shock. The second chapter analyzes the effects of a combination of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on macroeconomic and financial variables using a Time Varying Parameters Factor Augmented VAR (TVP-FA VAR) mode!. The third chapter investigates the European market of repurchase agreements and shows that government bonds represent a key fraction of the collateral in these transactions. lt also examines the effects of a rise in haircuts on the value of govemment bonds and shows that this mechanism may represent a channel in the transmission mechanism of banking and sovereign-debt crises in the periphery of the Eurozone. Following the empirical findings of the third chapter, the last chapter proposes a DSGE model with financial frictions to assess the impact of a negative liquidity shock and the consequences ofunconventional policy.