O objetivo desse trabalho é analisar a influência que fundamentos internos e fatores externos exercem sobre a taxa de juros nominal dos títulos soberanos de longo prazo nos países emergentes. A base de dados engloba 13 países ao longo de 33 trimestres entre 2006 e 2014. A metodologia utilizada aborda as técnicas econométricas mais recentes para tratar dados macroeconômicos. O modelo estimado é o Pooled Mean Group desenvolvido por Pesaran, Shin e Smith (1999). O modelo consegue separar as variáveis que afetam o nível de equilíbrio da taxa de juros das que exercem efeito apenas no curto prazo. Na melhor especificação apresentada, os resultados indicam que as variáveis que causam flutuações de curto prazo na taxa de juros dos países emergentes são a taxa de juros livre de risco (+0,3), a taxa de curto prazo (+0,4) e o déficit do governo americano (+0,1). Já as variáveis que afetam o nível de equilíbrio são a taxa de juros livre de risco (+0,5), a aversão ao risco dos investidores (+0,1), o saldo em conta corrente (-0,3), a inflação (+0,1), a abertura econômica (-0,04) e a dívida bruta (efeito positivo não linear). Por fim, ao analisar exclusivamente o caso brasileiro, nosso modelo indica que se o país tivesse mantido os fundamentos internos em linha com a média dos outros emergentes desde o final de 2006, o Brasil iria chegar ao final de 2014 com uma taxa de juros nominal de longo prazo de 6,1%, 6 p.p. abaixo do valor efetivamente observado que foi de 12,1%. / The aim of this study is to analyze the influence that internal fundamentals and external factors have on long-term sovereign bond yields in emerging markets. The database covers 13 countries over 33 quarters between 2006 and 2014. The methodology addresses the latest techniques to deal with macro panels, such as panel unit root and panel cointegration tests. The estimated model is the Pooled Mean Group developed by Pesaran, Shin e Smith (1999). This model can separate the variables that affect the interest rate equilibrium from the ones that only have an effect in the short-run. In the best specification presented, the results indicates that in the short-run the variables that affects the interest rates in emerging markets are the risk free interest rate (+0.3), the short term interest rate (+0.4) and the American government deficit (+0.1). The variables that affects the equilibrium level are the risk free interest rate (+0.5), risk aversion (+0.1), current account balance (-0.3), inflation (+0.1), trade openness (-0.04) and gross debt (non-linear positive effect). Finally, by examining only the Brazilian case, our model indicates that if the country had maintained the internal fundamentals in line with the average of other emerging markets since the end of 2006, Brazil would reach the end of 2014 with a long-term interest rate of 6.1%, 6 p.p. below the actual value of 12.1%.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / This study has as its main objective the study of the causal relationship between a set of macroeconomic and financial variables and the Public Debt, represented the Public Sector Net Debt, using the approach of multivariate regression model Self-Vector (VAR). Thus, we sougth to analyze the assumptions made by Correa and Biagi (2009), dealing about the growth of public debt to articulate financial factors linked to macroeconomic policy that interrelates financial openness, the volatile capital, high interet rates and the priority policy to fight inflation. The sample period includes the post form 1994 to 2010. Thus, for the proposed model, there was first the unit root test verifying that only two variables were not stationary, proceeding to theis use in first difference. Turthermore, it was tested for cointegration, resulting in failure to identify vector cointegrates, following to the application of VAR. Through Schwarz test, followed up to verify the selection criteria for the lag order of the variables in the matrix. Thus, based on these results, it became possible to say that the variables hava a behavior around a mean value, no significant structural breacks, which makes the design more robust. In arrays of contemporary relationships a significant relatioonship between the Public Debt and Public Debt. For other variables, the exchange rate, Aliens and Other Investments Other Investments Brazilian also had positive effects on the Public Debt. And, to a lesser extent, the variables Country Risk, Interesting Rate Long Term Selic rate, IPCA and Foreig Investiment in Portfolio. In the analysis of variance decomposition, the Public Debt demontrated hig explanatory power of more than 60% of its variation. This explanatory importance is followed by exchange and by interest. This result makes clear the determination of the decomposition of the forecast error as the impulse response function. Among the variables anlyzed, the Public Debt was the most impacted the Public Debt, showing its importance in the Brazilian economy. / Este estudo tem como principal objetivo o estudo da relação causal entre um conjunto de variáveis macroeconômicas e financeiras e a Dívida Pública, representada pela Dívida Líquida do Setor Público (DLSP), utilizando-se o enfoque multivariado do modelo de Auto-Regressão Vetorial (VAR). Assim, buscou-se analisar as hipóteses apresentadas por Corrêa e Biagi (2009), que tratam acerca do crescimento da Dívida Pública articulada aos fatores financeiros, ligados à política macroeconômica que interrelaciona a abertura financeira, os capitais voláteis, os juros altos e a prioridade à política de combate à inflação. O período analisado compreende do pós 1994 a 2010. Assim, para o modelo proposto, realizou-se primeiramente, o teste de raiz unitária verificando-se que apenas duas variáveis não eram estacionárias, procedendo-se para a utilização das mesmas em primeira diferença. Além disso, fez-se o teste de cointegração, tendo como resultado a não identificação de vetores co-integrados, seguindo-se para a aplicação do modelo VAR. Por meio do teste de Schwarz, seguiu-se para a verificação do critério de seleção da ordem de defasagem das variáveis na matriz. Assim, com base nos resultados obtidos, tornou-se possível afirmar que as variáveis possuem um comportamento em torno de um valor médio, não se observando quebras estruturais, o que torna o modelo mais robusto. Nas matrizes de relações contemporâneas se observou relação significativa entre a Dívida Pública e a Dívida Pública. Quanto às demais variáveis, o câmbio, Outros Investimentos de Estrangeiros e Outros Investimentos de Brasileiros também apresentaram efeitos positivos sobre a Dívida Pública. E, em menor grau, às variáveis Risco País, Taxa de Juros de Longo Prazo, Taxa SELIC, IPCA e Investimento Externo em Carteira. Na análise da decomposição de variância, a Dívida Pública demonstrou alto poder explanatório, de mais de 60% de sua variação. Essa importância explicativa é seguida pelo câmbio e pelos juros. Esse resultado deixa clara a determinação da decomposição do erro de previsão quanto a função impulso resposta. Dentre as variáveis analisadas, a Dívida Pública foi a que mais impactou a Dívida Pública, mostrando a sua importância na economia brasileira. / Mestre em Economia

Peru's reality should be analyzed carefully inorder to understand the situation in which most Peruvians actually are. It is of particular relevance to understand the role that the State and the tax system developed in it have in the country’s economy. A well known Peruvian economist analyzes Peru’s economic situation through the comparison benchmark countries that are somehow very influent on us. It is through a deep approach that the interviewee schemes the main issues of our country and enables to make proposals based on its reality, as well  as to make some projections about the country’s future. / La realidad del Perú es una que debe analizarse con detenimiento, para así poder entender la situación en la que verdaderamente se encuentranlos peruanos. Es de especial relevancia entender el rol que el Estado y el manejo tributario tienen en la economía del país. Por este motivo, en la presente entrevista se evalúa la situación económica en la que se halla el Perú, en comparación a otros países referentes e influyentes en nuestra economía. Es a partir de una aproximación profunda que el entrevistado esquematiza los problemas principales, plantea propuestas de desarrollo y, además, realiza ciertas proyecciones sobre el futuro del país.

Each month the Department of Finance makes the transfers of ICMS ( Tax on circulation of goods and transport services interstate and intercity communication ) to 75 municipalities of the state of Sergipe . These transfers contribute significantly to an increase in the share of revenues from municipal territories . As will be seen , the share of each municipal entity in GST revenue is expected in the Federal Constitution and follows one of the basic principles of income transfers is that the principle of derivation . Thus, the present study is to investigate the proposed GST as a reflection of economic development of the municipalities of the state of Sergipe . The first chapter presents a mapping on the historicity and economic particularities of the state tax ICMS. The second chapter shows the share of ICMS collection of Sergipe State in relation to other northeastern states and Brazil, but also analyzes the ICMS transfers to the municipalities of the State of Sergipe and ranking to determine which municipalities receive more GST than others, it is the method used Pearson correlation analysis to investigate the extent to which some explicit variables in the model are related or not performance of ICMS territorial units cited . The third chapter shows the income elasticity of the ICMS municipalities in Sergipe showing the extent to which GDP explains the analysis of these transfers . The fourth chapter shows the importance of the tax as a source of current revenues for social investments of the respective municipalities . Finally , concluding remarks are made , showing the relationship of the tax transfers to the respective municipalities in Sergipe . The results showed that there is a concentration of ICMS tax revenues of a few municipalities, which are the ones with better economic performance. Municipalities which are the value added tax justifies the largest transfer of state revenue. / Todos os meses a Secretaria de Estado da Fazenda efetua os repasses de ICMS (Imposto sobre operações relativas à circulação de mercadorias e de serviços de transportes interestadual, intermunicipal e de comunicação) aos 75 municípios do Estado de Sergipe. Estes repasses contribuem significativamente para um aumento na participação das receitas destes territórios municipais. Como será visto, a participação de cada ente municipal nas receitas do ICMS está prevista na Constituição Federal e segue um dos princípios básicos de transferências de receitas que é o princípio da derivação. Assim, o presente estudo tem a proposta de investigar o ICMS como reflexo do desenvolvimento econômico dos municípios do estado de Sergipe. No primeiro capítulo é feita uma abordagem sobre a historicidade e as particularidades econômicas do tributo estadual ICMS. No segundo capítulo é mostrada a participação da arrecadação de ICMS do Estado de Sergipe em relação aos demais Estados do nordeste e do Brasil; como também são analisados os repasses de ICMS aos municípios do Estado de Sergipe e um ranking para verificar quais municípios recebem mais ICMS do que outros; é utilizado o método de análise de correlação de Pearson para investigar até que ponto algumas variáveis explicitadas no modelo se relacionam ou não no desempenho da arrecadação do ICMS das unidades territoriais citadas. No terceiro capítulo é mostrada a elasticidade renda do ICMS dos municípios sergipanos mostrando até que ponto o PIB explica a análise destes repasses. O quarto capítulo mostra a importância do tributo como fonte de receita corrente líquida para investimentos sociais dos respectivos municípios. Por último, são feitas as considerações finais, mostrando a relação dos repasses do imposto aos respectivos municípios sergipanos. Os resultados obtidos demonstraram que existe uma concentração de arrecadação de ICMS nas receitas de poucos municípios, que são os que possuem melhor desempenho econômico. São municípios cujo, o valor adicionado fiscal justificam o maior repasse da receita estadual.

Submitted by isabela.moljf@hotmail.com (isabela.moljf@hotmail.com) on 2016-08-10T12:49:00Z No. of bitstreams: 1 eldertiagodacostasouza.pdf: 2456774 bytes, checksum: c3b48a393ed4f366bf8bd81d38993b9d (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Adriana Oliveira (adriana.oliveira@ufjf.edu.br) on 2016-08-10T13:03:58Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 eldertiagodacostasouza.pdf: 2456774 bytes, checksum: c3b48a393ed4f366bf8bd81d38993b9d (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T13:03:58Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 eldertiagodacostasouza.pdf: 2456774 bytes, checksum: c3b48a393ed4f366bf8bd81d38993b9d (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-03 / CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior / O principal objetivo desta dissertação é estudar os efeitos da interação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária sobre as variáveis macroeconômicas da economia brasileira. Para tal analisou-se a significância dos diferentes modelos de DSGE, por meio da metodologia DSGE-VAR, que implica na estimação do parâmetro de ajustamento do modelo (lambda), conforme Del Negro e Schorfheide (2004, 2006, 2009). Os resultados mostram que o modelo DSGE Bayesiano, com preços rígidos, setor externo e com a interação entre as políticas, é aquele que tem a melhor aderência aos dados reais. Destarte, foram estimadas as funções impulso-resposta, que corroboram a importância da inter-relação entre as políticas fiscal e monetária. A partir daí, avaliou-se o regime de dominância praticado no Brasil, sob a metodologia proposta por Leeper (1991). A combinação dos valores dos parâmetros resulta na proposição de dominância monetária, no período que compreende o primeiro trimestre de 2002 e o terceiro trimestre de 2015. Ademais, estudou-se o regime de dominância, relacionado ao período anterior e posterior à crise do subprime. Os resultados mostram que o regime de dominância não foi alterado. No entanto, a política fiscal tem se tornado mais ativa.Verificou-se que no período pós crise, tanto os choque de política fiscal quanto os de política monetária foram maiores, ou seja, intensificou-se o uso dos instrumentos fiscais. / The main aim of this dissertation is to study the effects of the interaction between fiscal and monetary policies on the macroeconomic variables of the Brazilian economy. Therefore we analyzed the significance of different DSGE models through the DSGE-VAR method, which involves the estimation of lambda model fitting parameter, as Del Negro and Schorfheide (2004, 2006, 2009). The results show that Bayesian DSGE models with sticky prices, external sector and the interaction between policies, is one that has the best grip to the actual data. Thus, were estimated the impulse response functions, which confirm the importance of the interrelationship between fiscal and monetary policies. From there, we evaluated the dominance regime practiced in Brazil, under the method proposed by Leeper (1991). The parameter values combination results in monetary dominance proposition in the period from the first quarter of 2002 and the third quarter of 2015. Besides, we estudied the dominance regime related to period prior and posterior to the subprime crisis. The results show that the dominance regime has not change. However, fiscal policy has became more active. It was found that in the post crisis period, both the shock fiscal policy as the monetary policy were higher, i.e., intensified the use of fiscal instruments.

Cette thèse contribue aux travaux récents sur les effets de la politique budgétaire à court terme sur l'économie. Plus précisément, sont étudiés dans cette thèse trois principaux aspects de la politique budgétaire à court terme. Premièrement, un des messages principaux consiste à dire que l'impact de la politique budgétaire sur l'économie dépend fortement de l'instrument fiscal utilisé. Augmenter les transferts aux ménages, augmenter l'investissement public ou diminuer les cotisations patronales sur les salaires produisent des effets fort différents sur les variables macroéconomiques clefs et notamment sur le niveau d'activité. Deuxièmement, au delà des effets sur l'activité économique, une large partie de cette thèse analyse l'impact de chocs budgétaires sur le marché du travail. Un des principaux résultats est qu'il paraît délicat de traduire des multiplicateurs sur l'activité en multiplicateurs sur le chômage, notamment à cause de la réponse de l'offre de travail.Troisièmement, nous savons que de multiples facteurs influencent la taille du multiplicateur budgétaire. Deux de ces éléments sont abordés dans cette thèse : la position de l'économie sur le cycle économique et la réponse de la politique monétaire. Les deux premiers chapitres de la thèse analysent ces différents aspects dans un cadre d'économie fermée. Les deux derniers chapitres traitent de la politique budgétaire en union monétaire en analysant les effets de débordement entre États membres ainsi que les capacités stabilisatrices de mécanismes de transferts budgétaires entre États membres afin d'amortir les chocs conjoncturels. / This thesis aims at contributing to the recent studies which investigate the short-run effects of fiscal policy on economic activity. More precisely, three main aspects of fiscal policy in the short run are analyzed. First, one major message is that the impact of fiscal policy on the economy depends strongly on the fiscal instrument used by the government. Rising transfers to households, increasing public investment or cutting social protection tax trigger very different effects on key macroeconomic variables and especially on output. Second, one large part of this thesis is dedicated to the analysis of the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the labor market. One main result is that we cannot determine unemployment fiscal multipliers according to the value of the output fiscal multiplier, especially because of the response of the labor force participation to fiscal policy shocks. Third, this is well-known that many elements influence the size of the output fiscal multiplier. Two of these elements are considered throughout this thesis: the position of the economy over the business cycle and the behavior of the monetary policy. The two first chapters of this thesis analyze these different aspects in some closed economy models. The two last chapters extend this study at the case of a monetary union by investigating the spillover effects of fiscal policy between member states but also the stabilizing properties of fiscal transfer mechanisms between member states in order to soften cyclical shocks.

Une crise financière et économique sans précèdent est apparue aux Etats-Unis en 2007, a progressé rapidement et s’est propagée à de nombreux pays dans le monde. L’instrument budgétaire a été largement utilisé : dans un contexte de contagion financière, les gouvernements ont dû réagir en adoptant dans un premier temps des mesures visant à relancer l'économie, puis, dans un deuxième temps, face à l’endettement croissant, des mesures de stabilisation économique. L'objectif de cette thèse est de mettre en évidence l'importance des caractéristiques spécifiques à la fois régionales et nationales dans la prise de décision publique visant à stimuler la croissance économique. La thèse analyse la relation entre le PIB et le chômage, ainsi que les effets des programmes de relance budgétaire. Dans la première partie, la loi d'Okun est examinée, au niveau régional, dans trois pays émergents d’Europe Centrale et de l’Est. Dans la deuxième partie, un éclairage particulier est porté sur le concept de multiplicateur budgétaire et ses implications de politique économique. Dans la troisième partie, les multiplicateurs budgétaires sont calculés dans des pays émergents, en particulier ceux des régions méditerranéennes et d’Europe Centrale et de l’Est. La thèse mobilise les outils de l’économétrie sur séries temporelles et sur panels de longue durée. / An unprecedented financial and economic crisis irrupted in the US in 2007, and has rapidly grown and spread to many countries around the world. The financial instrument has been widely used: in a context of financial contagion, governments have initially reacted by adopting measures to revive the economy, and then, secondly, facing mounting debt, implemented economic stabilization policies. The goal of this thesis is to highlight the importance of specific features both at regional and national level in the public decision making to stimulate economic growth. The thesis analyses the relationship between GDP and unemployment, as well as the effects of fiscal stimuli. In the first part, Okun’s law is examined at regional level in three emerging Central and Eastern European countries. In the second part, the emphasis is given to the concept of fiscal multiplier and its policy implications. In the third part, fiscal multipliers are assessed in emerging countries, particularly those of the Mediterranean and the Central and Eastern Europe regions. The thesis makes use of time series and panel econometrics methods.

El problema tratado en la investigación, se encuentra planteado en la pregunta ¿de qué forma se puede disminuir el incumplimento de la declaración fiscal de los médicos generadores de cuarta categoría; para evitar la evasión, mejorar el control e incrementar el recaudo? / The problem addressed in the investigation is posed in the question: how can the non-compilance of the tax declaration of the Generators of the Fourth Category be reduced? To avoid evasion, improve control and increase collection? / Trabajo de investigación

This diploma thesis aims to give a comprehensive picture of a phenomenon called The Dutch Disease whose symptoms had been increasing in many countries during the second half of the 20th century, especially in connection with mining. The first part deals with the detailed description of traditional economic theory and its later upgrades. In the second part, the Dutch Disease theory is applied to the member countries of the European Monetary Union and highlights the problems of asymmetric shocks, which may include among others the discovery of mineral resources. The third part then attempts to look at the recent European balance of payments crisis through the eyes of the Dutch Disease theory and to highlight a number of common symptoms.

This thesis is focused on the comparison of methods of financing budget deficits and national debt management in the Czech Republic with other OECD countries in the context of the current situation on the global financial market. The first part describes the methods of financing budget deficits in the Czech Republic which are compared with selected OECD countries. The second part is aimed at the impact of foreign exchange interventions of the Czech National Bank on the domestic bond market and it is compared with negative interest rates policy. The last part analyses the impact of the Public Sector Purchase Programme on the Czech Republic's bond market. The thesis implies that besides other factors, foreign exchange intervention of the Czech National Bank have an impact on the current situation on the bond market. While the impact of the programme PSPP has not yet proved.