Gravity is the main driving force for groundwater flow, and both landscape topography and geology distribute the effects of gravity on groundwater flow.  The groundwater table defines the distribution of the potential energy of the water. In humid regions where the bedrock permeability is relatively low and the soil depth is sufficiently shallow, the groundwater table closely follows the landscape topography and, thus, the topography controls the groundwater circulation in these regions. In this thesis, I investigate multi-scale topography-controlled groundwater flow, with the goal of systematizing the spatial distribution of groundwater flow and assessing geological parameters of importance for groundwater circulation.  Both exact solutions and numerical models are utilized for analyzing topography-controlled groundwater flow. The more complex numerical models are used to explore the importance of various simplifications of the exact solutions. The exact solutions are based on spectral representation of the topography and superpositioning of unit solutions to the groundwater flow field. This approach is an efficient way to analyze multi-scaled topography-controlled groundwater flow because the impact of individual topographic scales on the groundwater flow can be analyzed separately.  The results presented here indicate that topography is fractal and affects groundwater flow cells at wide range of spatial scales. We show that the fractal nature of the land surface produces fractal distributions of the subsurface flow patterns. This underlying similarity in hydrological processes also yields a single scale-independent distribution of subsurface water residence times which have been found in distributions of solute efflux from watersheds. Geological trends modify the topographic control of the groundwater circulation pattern and this thesis presents exact solutions explaining the impact of geological layering, depth-decaying and anisotropic hydraulic conductivity on the groundwater flow field. For instance, layers of Quaternary deposits and decaying permeability with depth both increase the importance of smaller topographic scales and creates groundwater flow fields where a larger portion of the water occupies smaller and shallower circulation cells, in comparison to homogeneous systems. / Gravitationen är den mest betydelsefulla drivkraften för grundvattenströmning. Topografin och geologin fördelar vattnets potentiella energi i landskapet. Grundvattenytans läge definierar vattnets potentiella energi, vilket är ett randvillkor för grundvattnets strömningsfält. I humida områden med en relativt tät berggrund och tillräckligt tunna jordlager, följer grundvattenytan landskapets topografi. Därav följer att grundvattenströmningen är styrd av topografin i dessa områden. I denna avhandling belyser jag den flerskaliga topografistyrda grundvattenströmningen. Min målsättning har varit att kvantitativt bestämma grundvattenströmningens rumsliga fördelning samt att undersöka hur olika geologiska parametrar påverkar grundvattencirkulationen. Jag har använt såväl numeriska modeller som analytiska lösningar, för att undersöka hur topografin styr grundvattenströmningen. De numeriska modellerna är mer komplexa än de analytiska lösningarna och kan därför användas för att undersöka betydelserna av olika förenklingar som finns i de analytiska lösningarna. De analytiska lösningarna är baserade på spektralanalys av topografin, samt superponering av enhetslösningar, där varje enhetslösning beskriver hur en specifik topografisk skala påverkar grundvattnets strömningsfält. Detta är ett effektivt tillvägagångssätt för att undersöka flerskaliga effekter av topografin, eftersom påverkan av varje enskild topografisk skala kan studeras separat. Resultaten som presenteras indikerar att topografin är fraktal och att den ger upphov till cirkulationsceller av varierande storlek som även dessa är av en fraktal natur. Denna grundläggande fördelning i grundvattnets strömningsfält ger upphov till att grundvattnets uppehållstid i marken följer ett självlikformigt mönster och kan förklara uppmätta tidsvariationer av lösta ämnens koncentrationer i vattendrag efter regn. Geologiska trender påverkar hur grundvattenströmningen styrs av topografin. De exakta lösningar som presenteras här, beskriver hur geologiska lager samt djupavtagande och anisotropisk hydraulisk konduktivitet påvekar grundvattnets strömning. Exempelvis är betydelsen av mindre topografiska skalor viktigare i områden med kvartära avlagringar och en berggrund med djupavtagande konduktivitet, än i områden med homogen bergrund utan kvartära avlagringar. Dessutom är en större andel strömmande vatten belägen närmare markytan i de förstnämnda områdena. / QC 20100802

Starting with tensor calculus and the variational form of the Hamiltonian functional, a generalized theory is formulated for doubly curved thin shells. The formulation avoids geometric approximations commonly adopted in other formulations. The theory is then specialized for cylindrical and toroidal shells as special cases, both of interest in the modeling of straight and elbow segments of pipeline systems. Since the treatment avoids geometric approximations, the cylindrical shell theory is believed to be more accurate than others reported in the literature. By adopting a set of consistent geometric approximations, the present theory is shown to revert to the well known Flugge shell theory. Another set of consistent geometric approximations is shown to lead to the Donnell-Mushtari-Vlasov (DMV) theory. A general closed form solution of the theory is developed for cylinders under general harmonic loads. The solution is then used to formulate a family of exact shape functions which are subsequently used to formulate a super-convergent finite element. The formulation efficiently and accurately captures ovalization, warping, radial expansion, and other shell behavioural modes under general static or harmonic forces either in-phase or out-of-phase. Comparisons with shell solutions available in Abaqus demonstrate the validity of the formulation and the accuracy of its predictions. The generalized thin shell theory is then specialized for toroidal shells. Consistent sets of approximations lead to three simplified theories for toroidal shells. The first set of approximations has lead to a theory comparable to that of Sanders while the second set of approximation has lead to a theory nearly identical to the DMV theory for toroidal shells. A closed form solution is then obtained for the governing equation. Exact shape functions are then developed and subsequently used to formulate a finite element. Comparisons with Abaqus solutions show the validity of the formulation for short elbow segments under a variety of loading conditions. Because of their efficiency, the finite elements developed are particularly suited for the analysis of long pipeline systems.

Starting with tensor calculus and the variational form of the Hamiltonian functional, a generalized theory is formulated for doubly curved thin shells. The formulation avoids geometric approximations commonly adopted in other formulations. The theory is then specialized for cylindrical and toroidal shells as special cases, both of interest in the modeling of straight and elbow segments of pipeline systems. Since the treatment avoids geometric approximations, the cylindrical shell theory is believed to be more accurate than others reported in the literature. By adopting a set of consistent geometric approximations, the present theory is shown to revert to the well known Flugge shell theory. Another set of consistent geometric approximations is shown to lead to the Donnell-Mushtari-Vlasov (DMV) theory. A general closed form solution of the theory is developed for cylinders under general harmonic loads. The solution is then used to formulate a family of exact shape functions which are subsequently used to formulate a super-convergent finite element. The formulation efficiently and accurately captures ovalization, warping, radial expansion, and other shell behavioural modes under general static or harmonic forces either in-phase or out-of-phase. Comparisons with shell solutions available in Abaqus demonstrate the validity of the formulation and the accuracy of its predictions. The generalized thin shell theory is then specialized for toroidal shells. Consistent sets of approximations lead to three simplified theories for toroidal shells. The first set of approximations has lead to a theory comparable to that of Sanders while the second set of approximation has lead to a theory nearly identical to the DMV theory for toroidal shells. A closed form solution is then obtained for the governing equation. Exact shape functions are then developed and subsequently used to formulate a finite element. Comparisons with Abaqus solutions show the validity of the formulation for short elbow segments under a variety of loading conditions. Because of their efficiency, the finite elements developed are particularly suited for the analysis of long pipeline systems.

The objective of the present study is to forecast annual rainfall taking into account the periodicities and structure of the stochastic component. This study has six Chapters. Chapter 1 presents introduction to the problem and objectives of the study. Chapter 2 consists of review of literature. Chapter 3 deals with the model formulation and development. Chapter 4 gives an account of the application of the model. Chapter 5 presents results and discussions. Chapter 6 gives the conclusions drawn from the study. In this thesis the following model formulations are presented in order to achieve the objective. Fourier analysis model is used to identify periodicities that are present in the rainfall series.1 These periodic components are used to obtain discrotized ranges which is an essential input for the Fourier series model. Auto power regression model is developed for estimation of rainfall and hence to compute the first order residuals errlt The parameters of the model are estimated using genetic algorithm. The auto power regression model is of the form, ( Refer the PDF File for Formula) where αi and βi are parameters and M indicates modular value. Fourier series model is formulated and solved through genetic algorithm to estimate the parameters amplitude R, phase Φ and periodic frequency wj for the residual series errlt. The ranges for the parameters R, Φ and wj were obtained from Fourier analysis model. errl't= /µerrlt+ Σj Rcos(wjt+ Φ) Further, an integrated auto power regression and Fourier series model developed (with parameters of the model being known from the above analysis) to estimate new rainfall series Zesťt=Zµ Σ t αi(ZMi-t ) βi+µerrl+ Σj Rcos(wjt+ Φ) and the second order residuals, err2t is computed using, err2t = (zt –Zesťt) Thus, the periodicities are removed in the errlt series and the second order residuals err'2f obtained represents the stochastic component of the actual rainfall series. Auto regressive model is formulated to study the structure of the stochastic component err2t. The auto regressive model of order two AR(2) is found to fit well. The parameters of the AR(2) model were estimated using method of least squares. An exponential weighting function is developed to compute the weight considering weight as a function of AR{2) parameters. The product of weight and Gaussian white noise N(0, óerr2) is termed as weighted stochastic component. Also, drought analysis is performed considering annual (January to December) and summer monsoon (June to September) rainfall totals, to determine average drought interval (idrt) which is used in assigning signs to the random component of the forecasting model. In the final form of the forecasting model. Zest”t = Z µ Σ t αi(ZMi-t ) βi+µerrl+ Σj Rcos(wjt+ Φ) ± WT(Φ1, Φ2)N(0, óerr2) The weighted stochastic component is added or subtracted considering two criteria. Criterion I is used for all rainfall series except all-India series for which criterion II is used. The criteria also consider average drought interval Further, it can be seen that a ± sign is introduced to add or subtract the weighted stochastic component, albeit the stochastic component itself can either be positive or negative. The introduction of ± sign on the already signed value (instead of absolute value) is found to improve the forecast in the sense of obtaining more number of point rainfall estimates within 20 percent error. Incorporating significant periodicities, and weighted stochastic component along with average drought interval into the forecasting formulation is the main feature of the model. Thus, in the process of rainfall prediction, the genetic algorithm is used as an efficient tool in estimating optimal parameters of the auto power regression and the Fourier series models, without the use of an expensive nonlinear least square algorithm. The model application is demonstrated considering different annual rainfall series relating to IMD-Regions (RI...R5), all-india (AI), IMD-Subdivisions (S1...S29), Zones (Z1...Z10) and all-Karnataka (AK). The results of the proposed model are encouraging in providing improved forecasts. The model considers periodicity, average critical drought frequency and weighted stochastic component in forecasting the rainfall series. The model performed well in achieving success-rate of 70 percent with percentage error less than 20 percent in 4 out of 5 IMD Regions (R2 to R5), all-India, 17 out of 29 IMD Subdivisions (S1 to S5, S7 to S9, S18, S19, S21, S24 to S29) and all-Karnataka rainfall series. The model performance for Zones was not that-satisfactory as only 2 out of 10 Zones [Z1 and Z2) met the criterion. In a separate study, an effort was made to forecast annual rainfall using IMSL subroutine SPWF -which estimates Wiener forecast parameters. Monthly data is considered for the study. The Wiener parameters obtained were used to estimate monthly rainfall. The annual estimates obtained by simple aggregation of the monthly estimates compared extremely well with the actual annual rainfall values. A success rate of more than 80 percent with percentage error less than 10 percent is achieved in 4 out of 5 IMD Regions (R2 to R5), all-India, 18 out of 29 IMD Subdivisions (S1 to S8, S14, S18, S19, S22 to S24, S26 to S29) and all-Karnataka rainfall series. Whereas a success rate of 80 percent within 20 percent error is achieved in 4 out of 5 IMD Regions (except R1), all-India, 25 outof 29 IMD Subdivisions (except S10, S11, S12 and S17), all- Karnataka and 8 out of 10 Zones (except Z6 and Z8)(Please refer PDF File for Formulas)

Starting with tensor calculus and the variational form of the Hamiltonian functional, a generalized theory is formulated for doubly curved thin shells. The formulation avoids geometric approximations commonly adopted in other formulations. The theory is then specialized for cylindrical and toroidal shells as special cases, both of interest in the modeling of straight and elbow segments of pipeline systems. Since the treatment avoids geometric approximations, the cylindrical shell theory is believed to be more accurate than others reported in the literature. By adopting a set of consistent geometric approximations, the present theory is shown to revert to the well known Flugge shell theory. Another set of consistent geometric approximations is shown to lead to the Donnell-Mushtari-Vlasov (DMV) theory. A general closed form solution of the theory is developed for cylinders under general harmonic loads. The solution is then used to formulate a family of exact shape functions which are subsequently used to formulate a super-convergent finite element. The formulation efficiently and accurately captures ovalization, warping, radial expansion, and other shell behavioural modes under general static or harmonic forces either in-phase or out-of-phase. Comparisons with shell solutions available in Abaqus demonstrate the validity of the formulation and the accuracy of its predictions. The generalized thin shell theory is then specialized for toroidal shells. Consistent sets of approximations lead to three simplified theories for toroidal shells. The first set of approximations has lead to a theory comparable to that of Sanders while the second set of approximation has lead to a theory nearly identical to the DMV theory for toroidal shells. A closed form solution is then obtained for the governing equation. Exact shape functions are then developed and subsequently used to formulate a finite element. Comparisons with Abaqus solutions show the validity of the formulation for short elbow segments under a variety of loading conditions. Because of their efficiency, the finite elements developed are particularly suited for the analysis of long pipeline systems.

Submitted by Aelson Maciera (aelsoncm@terra.com.br) on 2017-06-28T18:26:17Z No. of bitstreams: 1 DissMHAI.pdf: 1513128 bytes, checksum: 1bb98ae57371ab00d2c86311b02054cb (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ronildo Prado (ronisp@ufscar.br) on 2017-08-07T17:53:27Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissMHAI.pdf: 1513128 bytes, checksum: 1bb98ae57371ab00d2c86311b02054cb (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Ronildo Prado (ronisp@ufscar.br) on 2017-08-07T17:53:36Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 DissMHAI.pdf: 1513128 bytes, checksum: 1bb98ae57371ab00d2c86311b02054cb (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2017-08-07T17:57:44Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 DissMHAI.pdf: 1513128 bytes, checksum: 1bb98ae57371ab00d2c86311b02054cb (MD5) Previous issue date: 2017-04-12 / Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) / Given two samples from two populations, one could ask how similar the populations are, that is, how close their probability distributions are. For absolutely continuous distributions, one way to measure the proximity of such populations is to use a measure of distance (metric) between the probability density functions (which are unknown given that only samples are observed). In this work, we work with the integrated squared distance as metric. To measure the uncertainty of the squared integrated distance, we first model the uncertainty of each of the probability density functions using a nonparametric Bayesian method. The method consists of estimating the probability density function f (or its logarithm) using Fourier series {f0;f1; :::;fI}. Assigning a prior distribution to f is then equivalent to assigning a prior distribution to the coefficients of this series. We used the prior suggested by Scricciolo (2006) (sieve prior), which not only places a prior on such coefficients, but also on I itself, so that in reality we work with a Bayesian mixture of finite dimensional models. To obtain posterior samples of such mixture, we marginalize out the discrete model index parameter I and use a statistical software called Stan. We conclude that the Bayesian Fourier series method has good performance when compared to kernel density estimation, although both methods often have problems in the estimation of the probability density function near the boundaries. Lastly, we showed how the methodology of Fourier series can be used to access the uncertainty regarding the similarity of two samples. In particular, we applied this method to dataset of patients with Alzheimer. / Dadas duas amostras de duas populações, pode-se questionar o quão parecidas as duas populações são, ou seja, o quão próximas estão suas distribuições de probabilidade. Para distribuições absolutamente contínuas, uma maneira de mensurar a proximidade dessas populações é utilizando uma medida de distância (métrica) entre as funções densidade de probabilidade (as quais são desconhecidas, em virtude de observarmos apenas as amostras). Nesta dissertação, utilizamos a distância quadrática integrada como métrica. Para mensurar a incerteza da distância quadrática integrada, primeiramente modelamos a incerteza sobre cada uma das funções densidade de probabilidade através de uma método bayesiano não paramétrico. O método consiste em estimar a função de densidade de probabilidade f (ou seu logaritmo) usando séries de Fourier {f0;f1; :::;fI}. Atribuir uma distribuição a priori para f é então equivalente a atribuir uma distribuição a priori aos coeficientes dessa serie. Utilizamos a priori sugerida em Scricciolo (2006) (priori de sieve), a qual não coloca uma priori somente nesses coeficientes, mas também no próprio I, de modo que, na realidade, trabalhamos com uma mistura bayesiana de modelos de dimensão finita. Para obter amostras a posteriori dessas misturas, marginalizamos o parâmetro (discreto) de indexação de modelos, I, e usamos um software estatístico chamado Stan. Concluímos que o método bayesiano de séries de Fourier tem boa performance quando comparado ao de estimativa de densidade kernel, apesar de ambos os métodos frequentemente apresentarem problemas na estimação da função de densidade de probabilidade perto das fronteiras. Por fim, mostramos como a metodologia de series de Fourier pode ser utilizada para mensurar a incerteza a cerca da similaridade de duas amostras. Em particular, aplicamos este método a um conjunto de dados de pacientes com doença de Alzheimer.

L'objectif de cette thèse est de développer des techniques de modélisation et de simulation multi-échelle avancées et efficaces pour étudier les phénomènes d'instabilité dans trois structures d'ingénierie courantes: membrane, film/substrat et structures sandwich, en combinant la technique des coefficients de Fourier lentement variables (TSVFC) et la méthode numérique asymptotique (ANM). À cette fin, basée sur les équations de la plaque de Von Karman, la TSVFC été utilisée pour développer un modèle de Fourier à bidimensionnel (2D) qui a également été implémenté dans ABAQUS via sa sous-routine UEL. Ensuite, un 2D modèle de Fourier est construit pour le film/substrat. En outre, en utilisant leurs caractéristiques de déformation, un 1D modèle de Fourier est développé en utilisant à la fois le TSVFC et le CUF. Par la suite, sur la base d'une cinématique Zig-Zag d'ordre supérieur, un 2D modèle de Fourier est déduit pour une plaque sandwich. Les équations directrices pour les modèles ci-dessus sont discrétisées par la méthode des éléments finis, et les systèmes non linéaires résultants sont résolus par le solveur non linéaire efficace et robuste ANM. Ces modèles sont ensuite adoptés pour étudier les instabilités dans ces structures. Les résultats montrent que les modèles établis peuvent simuler avec précision et efficacité divers phénomènes d'instabilité. En outre, on constate que l'instabilité membranaire est sensible aux conditions aux limites et qu'il existe un paramètre sans dimension presque constant près du point de bifurcation pour différents cas de charge et paramètres géométriques, ce qui peut être utile pour prédire rapidement l'apparition des rides / The main aim of this thesis is to develop advanced and efficient multi-scale modeling and simulation techniques to study instability phenomena in three common engineering structures, i.e., membrane, film/substrate and sandwich structures, by combining the Technique of Slowly Variable Fourier Coefficients (TSVFC) and the Asymptotic Numerical Method (ANM). Towards this end, based on the Von Karman plate equations, the TSVFC has been firstly used to develop a two-dimensional (2D) Fourier double-scale model for membrane, which has also been implemented into ABAQUS via its subroutine UEL. Then a 2D Fourier model is constructed for film/substrate. Further, making use of deformation features of the film/substrate, a 1D Fourier model is developed by using both the TSVFC and the Carrera’s Unified Formulation (CUF). Subsequently, based on high-order kinematics belonging to Zig-Zag theory, a 2D Fourier model is deduced for sandwich plate. The governing equations for the above models are discretized by the Finite Element Method, and the resulting nonlinear systems are solved by the efficient and robust nonlinear solver ANM. These models are then adopted to study instabilities in these structures. Results show that the established models could accurately and efficiently simulate various instability phenomena. Besides, it’s found that the membrane instability is very sensitive to boundary conditions, and there exists a dimensionless parameter that is almost constant near bifurcation point for various loading cases and geometric parameters, which may be helpful for fast predicting the occurrence of wrinkles

Ce travail est constitué de deux parties indépendantes traitant chacune d'un problème issu de la théorie du contrôle des équations aux dérivées partielles. La première partie est consacrée à l'étude d'un feedback explicite et déjà connu, s'appliquant à des systèmes linéaires, réversibles en temps et éventuellement munis d'un opérateur de contrôle non-borné. On justifie le caractère bien posé du problème en boucle fermée via la théorie des semi-groupes puis on étudie le taux de décroissance des solutions du système régulé. La seconde partie concerne un problème d'observation pour la corde vibrante : on détermine comment choisir des instants d'observation pour que la position de la corde à ces instants permette de retrouver les conditions initiales tout en préservant une certaine régularité. La méthode, qui repose sur des résultats d'approximation diophantienne, est ensuite étendue à d'autres systèmes. En utilisant une méthode de dualité on démontre aussi un résultat de contrôlabilité exacte. / This works contains two independent parts, each one dealing with the control of partial differential equations. In the first part, we study an explicit and already known feedback law that applies to linear, time-reversible systems, with a possibly unbounded control operator. We prove the well-posedness of the closed-loop problem in the semi-group framework and we study the decay rate of the solutions. In the second part, we give conditions on the choice of some time instants, such that the positions of a vibrating string (or beam) at these times enable to recover the initial data. The method relies on Diophantine approximation results. Using a duality method, we give a related exact controllability result.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / This work is treated in two parts. The first is to find sufficient conditions for a function so that its Fourier series distributions become common and uniform, as well as an approach to Fejér’s Theorem, an interesting and useful result of no Fourier Series study. A second part of the application of the Fourier Series, Weyl equidistribution theorem. A problem that lies at the frontier of Dynamic Systems with a Theory of Numbers. The same refers to the distribution of irrational numbers in the range [0, 1). / Este trabalho é tratado em duas partes. A primeira consiste em encontrar condições suficientes sobre uma dada função para que sua expansão em Série de Fourier convirja pontualmente e uniformemente, como também uma abordagem ao Teorema de Fejér, resultado interessante e útil no estudo de Séries de Fourier. A segunda parte uma aplicação provenientes das Séries de Fourier, o Teorema de equidistribuição de Weyl. Um problema que se encontra na fronteira dos Sistemas Dinâmicos com a Teoria dos Números. O mesmo refere-se à distribuição de números irracionais no intervalo [0, 1).

The amount of carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere has significantly increased in the last few decades as compared to the last 80,000 years approximately. The increase in carbon dioxide levels are affecting the temperature and therefore need to be understood better. In order to study the effects of global events on the carbon dioxide levels, one need to properly estimate the trends in carbon dioxide in the previous years. In this project, we will perform the task of estimating the trend in carbon dioxide measurements taken in Mauna Loa for the last 46 years, also known as the Keeling Curve, using estimation techniques based on a Taylor and Fourier series model equation. To perform the estimation, we will employ Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) and the Cramér-Rao Lower Bound (CRLB) and review our results by comparing it to other estimation techniques. The estimation of the trend in Keeling Curve is well-posed however, the estimation for the first derivative of the trend is an ill-posed problem. We will further calculate if the estimation error is under a suitable limit and conduct statistical analyses for our estimated results.