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<p>People use a variety of means to orient themselves towards the future. A more organised approach to handling the future known as "futures studies" is often used in a variety of contexts including long-term planning within large organisations. In the effort to enhance the quality of such studies, there have been arguments for better methods (which makes sense), but methods may not be the most important aspect in the production of futures studies. Greater theoretical awareness in the substantive questions upon which the study is based is more important. To that end, the intent of this dissertation is to infuse a keener awareness of fundamental assumptions in futures studies and contribute to increasing their quality.</p><p>One objective of the dissertation is to formulate a method or procedure to analyse the futures studies of large organisations, apply it to two empirical cases and thereafter analyse its strengths and weaknesses. The method I discuss and develop extensively in this work consists of an analytical framework that focuses on three aspects of each future study: its architecture, its relationship to a few of the key future issues of our time and its assumptions regarding our views on society, humanity and technology. A second objective is to systematically study future documents from two large organisations and attempt to clarify motives, orientation, methodology and distinguishing characteristics in their future processes. The cases I have chosen are the Swedish Armed Forces and the telecommunications company Ericsson, which were both in a period of transition around the mid 1990s.</p><p>The dissertation shows how the method has been used to bring to the fore and clarify central ideas in futures studies, identify ambiguities and fuzzy thinking and to show and expose more covert assumptions. The analysis also illustrates that certain aspects of the model have been observed in the empirical material, other ideas are found to a lesser extent and certain perspectives are entirely absent. The paper stresses that the model developed has both strengths and weaknesses, but the overall assessment is that it was well-balanced and maintains appropriate depth in relation to desired efficiency. The study shows that the analytical method is relevant and adequate to understand and describe the direction and content of futures studies and in so doing enhance their quality.</p>

The search includes two strategic themes for the contribution of technological and scientific development of the country: the Future Study and Assistive Technology resources to person with deafness and blindness with applicability for education, specifically for higher education, with the axis technology foresight connection. The objective was to conduct prospecting technology patents of TA resources worldwide to identify the position of Brazil as depositor of Assistive Technology. The methodology applied to technological forecasting was the literature review and the extrapolation of trends, such as methods of a Prospective Study in a conceptual approach to the Future Study. The study in patent applications in Assistive Technology for people with deafness and blindness occurred through data mining of a set of 1,241 patents. The data combined keywords Assistive Technology, person with deafness and blindness, education, method, software, products, major depositors, leading countries, organizations, key inventors, IPC codes and annual evolution. From these keywords figures were generated showing interest in the area of assistive technology, its technical and application by the world´s largest depositors. It was identified that the TA resources with applicability in higher education, according to the processing of data in VantagePoint tool, are not developed; we understand that this is because it is new terminology Assistive Technology in other areas of knowledge when compared to the area of education and the International Patent Classification (IPC) does not inform the patent by level of education, but by its technical nature and application. We understand that the term: Instructional Resources is still used for customers with disabilities in the retrieved patent documents; we also understand that the decrease or lack of patents from 2012 may be related to patent secrecy period. China is the leading country in the number of patents deafness and blindness, Japan turn the nation shows up with the most active organizations and the US have a situation of very broad inventive step. Brazil has great potential for development in TA in education, specifically for higher education, for it is a level of education that form human resources. We have seen what has been done to the National Survey on Assistive Technology through the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation and the Brazilian government has encouraged federal institutions to develop this technology to various areas of knowledge, as well as in the educational field; this brings business opportunities for inventors. It takes more detailed future studies for extending the scientific framework of this issue, thus contributing to fostering research on innovation and technology in Brazil. / A Pesquisa integra dois temas estratégicos para a contribuição do desenvolvimento tecnológico e científico do país: o Estudo de Futuro e os recursos em Tecnologia Assistiva para pessoa com surdez e cegueira com aplicabilidade para a área educacional, mais precisamente para o ensino superior, tendo como eixo de ligação a prospecção tecnológica. O objetivo do trabalho foi realizar prospecção tecnológica de patentes dos recursos em TA a nível mundial para identificar a posição do Brasil como depositante de Tecnologia Assistiva. A metodologia aplicada à prospecção tecnológica foi a revisão de literatura e a extrapolação de tendências, como métodos de um Estudo Prospectivo numa abordagem conceitual do Estudo de Futuro. O estudo realizado nos depósitos de patentes em Tecnologia Assistiva para pessoa com surdez e cegueira ocorreu através da mineração de dados de um conjunto de 1.241 de patentes. O tratamento dos dados combinou as palavras-chave Tecnologia Assistiva, pessoa com surdez e cegueira, educação, método, softwares, produtos, maiores depositantes, países líderes, organizações, principais inventores, códigos do IPC e evolução anual. A partir destas palavras-chave foram geradas figuras que mostram o interesse pela área de Tecnologia Assistiva, sua natureza técnica e aplicação por parte dos maiores depositantes mundiais. Foi identificado que os recursos em TA com aplicabilidade no ensino superior, de acordo com o tratamento de dados na ferramenta VantagePoint, não são desenvolvidos; entendemos que isto acontece devido ser nova a terminologia de Tecnologia Assistiva nas outras áreas do conhecimento quando comparamos com a área da educação e a Classificação Internacional de Patentes (IPC) não informa a patente por nível de escolaridade e sim por sua natureza técnica e aplicação. Entendemos que o termo: Recursos Didáticos ainda é utilizado para a clientela com deficiência nos documentos de patentes recuperados; entendemos também que a diminuição ou falta de patenteamento a partir de 2012 pode estar relacionada ao período de sigilo da patente. A China é o país que lidera o número de patentes em surdez e cegueira, o Japão por sua vez mostra-se a nação com as organizações mais ativas e os EUA apresentam uma situação de atividade inventiva bem ampla. O Brasil tem grande potencial para o desenvolvimento em TA na área educacional, mais especificamente para o ensino superior, por se tratar de um nível de instrução que forma recursos humanos. Vimos que já foi realizada a Pesquisa Nacional em Tecnologia Assistiva através do Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação e o governo brasileiro tem estimulado as instituições federais a desenvolverem esta tecnologia para diversas áreas do conhecimento, assim como também no âmbito educacional; isto traz oportunidades de negócios para os inventores. São necessários estudos futuros mais aprofundados para que se amplie o arcabouço científico desta temática, contribuindo assim com fomento à pesquisa sobre inovação e tecnologia no Brasil.

People use a variety of means to orient themselves towards the future. A more organised approach to handling the future known as "futures studies" is often used in a variety of contexts including long-term planning within large organisations. In the effort to enhance the quality of such studies, there have been arguments for better methods (which makes sense), but methods may not be the most important aspect in the production of futures studies. Greater theoretical awareness in the substantive questions upon which the study is based is more important. To that end, the intent of this dissertation is to infuse a keener awareness of fundamental assumptions in futures studies and contribute to increasing their quality. One objective of the dissertation is to formulate a method or procedure to analyse the futures studies of large organisations, apply it to two empirical cases and thereafter analyse its strengths and weaknesses. The method I discuss and develop extensively in this work consists of an analytical framework that focuses on three aspects of each future study: its architecture, its relationship to a few of the key future issues of our time and its assumptions regarding our views on society, humanity and technology. A second objective is to systematically study future documents from two large organisations and attempt to clarify motives, orientation, methodology and distinguishing characteristics in their future processes. The cases I have chosen are the Swedish Armed Forces and the telecommunications company Ericsson, which were both in a period of transition around the mid 1990s. The dissertation shows how the method has been used to bring to the fore and clarify central ideas in futures studies, identify ambiguities and fuzzy thinking and to show and expose more covert assumptions. The analysis also illustrates that certain aspects of the model have been observed in the empirical material, other ideas are found to a lesser extent and certain perspectives are entirely absent. The paper stresses that the model developed has both strengths and weaknesses, but the overall assessment is that it was well-balanced and maintains appropriate depth in relation to desired efficiency. The study shows that the analytical method is relevant and adequate to understand and describe the direction and content of futures studies and in so doing enhance their quality.