<p>The understanding of environmental change and how it is influenced by innovation processes and advances in science and technology is multifaceted given the inherent uncertainty of the pace and direction of technology change, but also given the limits to anticipate future environmental effects of new technology.</p><p>The doctoral thesis is organised in two parts. The covering essay constitutes the first part and is aimed at introducing the scope of the research; outlining theoretical perspectives and central concepts and positioning the research to other research studies. Reprints of the six papers included in the thesis comprise the second part of the thesis.</p><p>The first aim of this doctoral thesis is to contribute to an increased understanding of the conditions for environmental policy and planning through innovation, science policy and technological change. Particular attention is paid to the institutional frameworks for policy processes, public-private interactive policy and strategic planning with futures studies. The second aim is to explore and analyse approaches applied for assessing the output, impact and structure of science in the area of strategic environmental research. This includes an examination of research assessment criteria and an analysis of knowledge networks in strategic environmental research, characterised by socio-economic expectations of generating innovations that benefit the environment through the industrial application of science. Four types of environmental planning are studied using a combined qualitative and quantitative research approach. These are corporate environmental planning, public environmental planning, strategic long-term planning, and strategic science planning targeting advances in science and technology to attain environmental objectives.</p><p>The findings of the study show that institutional frameworks of science and technology policy affecting environmental planning are found in organisational forms, such as science parks, but also in institutions understood as values and norms of the science system. With an increased focus on assessment of research as well as future technology, the findings of the study also contributes by examining approaches applied for assessing the output, structure and impact of research, using bibliometrics and social network analysis in the area of strategic environmental research.</p>

Après la Seconde Guerre mondiale, surtout à partir du début des années 1960, et jusqu’à la fin des années 1980, plusieurs projets de recherche sur le futur ont été menés par des équipes internationales avec pour objectif la promotion d’une « conscience globale », soit un sentiment d'appartenance à une communauté humaine unique partageant un destin commun. Cette thèse examine certains de ces projets, en particulier ceux qui sont menés au sein d’organisations internationales appartenant au système des Nations Unies. Elle démontre que la pratique de la prospective a été, pendant la guerre froide, source de nouvelles conceptions du monde.Les recherches menées se situent à la croisée de plusieurs champs historiographiques dont les trois principaux sont l’histoire du futur, l’histoire intellectuelle transnationale et l’histoire de la globalité. Elles s’articulent autour de la problématique suivante : comment les études sur le futur menées au sein du système onusien pendant la guerre froide ont-elles contribué à faire émerger et à défendre certaines conceptions du global, faisant du futur du monde à la fois une catégorie d’exploration scientifique et une catégorie d’action pour un ensemble d’acteurs internationaux ? / After the Second World War, in particular from the 1960s to the 1980s, several futures studies projects were conducted by international teams. Their goal was to promote the shaping of a « global consciousness » : the sense of belonging to a unique human community sharing a common destiny. This dissertation analyzes some of those projects, particularly those that were conducted within the united nations system. It shows that futurology created new ways of envisioning the world during the Cold War.

Esta tese buscou estudar a integração entre a prospecção do futuro e projetos dentro do escopo da estratégia. Decisões envolvendo projetos no âmbito da estratégia das organizações são para horizontes de tempo de médio ou longo prazo. Nessa situação, gestores precisam lidar com incertezas de futuro, e para isso podem recorrer às metodologias de prospecção do futuro. O estudo do futuro é atividade complexa, pela abrangência de temas a serem considerados, contudo, é provável que gestores pratiquem essa atividade devido à responsabilidade assumida por suas decisões. A prática de metodologia prospectiva gera resultados, e estes podem contribuir nas decisões em projetos estratégicos. A literatura de estudos do futuro contém recomendações sobre como praticar metodologia prospectiva, porém aborda menos a utilização dos resultados de estudos prospectivos e a sua contribuição para a estratégia empresarial. Ela se concentra mais nos processos de desenvolvimento dos projetos de prospecção para se chegar aos resultados. Dessa forma, esta tese visou ao estudo da utilização dos resultados da prospecção nas decisões de projetos no âmbito da estratégia empresarial. Os fenômenos estudados envolvem a transição entre a prática da prospecção do futuro, a consequente disponibilidade de seus resultados e a contribuição dos mesmos nos processos de análise prospectiva para suporte a decisões. O objetivo geral da tese é a proposta de um modelo que contribua nessa transição. A metodologia utilizada foi mista - quantitativa e qualitativa - desenvolvida por meio de survey e entrevistas, e a abordagem utilizada foi exploratória e descritiva. Os resultados indicam haver limitações na integração entre prospecção do futuro e estratégia empresarial. Foi identificado que a prospecção do futuro é considerada importante pelos gestores participantes da pesquisa. Em contraste, a transição para a sua prática, passando pela disponibilidade de seus resultados, e a posterior utilização deles em processos de suporte à tomada de decisões em projetos estratégicos, apresenta limitações. Os resultados indicam que, apesar da importância da atividade de prospecção, gestores avaliam que ela é praticada em um nível mais baixo, e ao final a contribuição de seus resultados é avaliada em nível ainda mais baixo. Isso é mais evidente nas empresas de menor quantidade de funcionários, menor faturamento, de capital fechado ou limitado, sendo que nessas empresas a prospecção é para horizonte de tempo mais curto. Já gestores de empresas com maior quantidade de funcionários, maior faturamento e de capital aberto lidam melhor com a prospecção do futuro, sendo que estudam seus projetos estratégicos em horizonte de tempo mais longo. Observou-se que as principais limitações identificadas estão relacionadas com o conhecimento das metodologias de prospecção do futuro, e isso limita principalmente a identificação de temas importantes a serem estudados e monitorados acerca do futuro, configurando-se como lacunas de análise prospectiva ou pontos cegos. Por decorrência disso, a contribuição da prospecção na estratégia empresarial sofre limitações. Conclui-se, portanto, que a integração entre prospecção do futuro e a estratégia empresarial poderia ser facilitada por meio do uso de um modelo de suporte, voltado para: (1) reduzir a possibilidade de lacunas de análise prospectiva; e (2) suportar a avaliação: da prática da prospecção do futuro, do uso dos seus resultados nas decisões, e finalmente da aplicação da expertise sobre prospecção do futuro na empresa. Os resultados confirmam que o modelo proposto contribuiria na integração da prospecção do futuro com a estratégia empresarial. / This doctoral dissertation aimed to study the integration between futures studies and projects within the scope of strategy. Decision-making in projects related to the strategy of organizations involve medium to long term horizon. In such context, managers have to deal with uncertainties of future, and then they may apply futures studies methodologies. Studying the future is a complex activity, due to the broadness of topics involved; however, it is likely that managers do it because they take responsibility for their decisions. The practice of futures studies methodologies leads to results, and these results may be useful to support decisions in strategic projects. The research literature about futures studies shows recommendations on how to practice prospective methodology, but it barely touches the use of the results of futures studies methodologies and their contribution to strategy. It focuses on the development processes of studying the future through the application of methods. Thus, this doctoral dissertation is aimed to study the use of futures studies results in decisions of projects within the scope of corporate strategy. The phenomena studied involve the transition from the practice of futures studies methods, the consequent availability of results and their contribution in the prospective analysis processes for decision support. The overall objective of the research is the proposal of a model that would help in this transition. The research methodology was through mixed method - quantitative and qualitative - developed through survey and interviews, and the approach was exploratory and descriptive. The results indicate that there are limitations in the integration between futures studies and strategy. It was identified that futures studies are considered very important by the participants of the research. In contrast, the transition to its practice, passing through the availability of its results, and to later use of the results to support processes in decision-making has limitations. The results indicate that despite managers consider important to study the future, they assess the practice of futures studies in their companies at lower level, and the contribution of its results is also assessed at further lower level. This is most evident in companies with small number of employees, low revenues, limited companies, in which the strategic projects are analyzed to shorter time horizon. In contrast, managers of companies with high number of employees, high revenues and publicly traded companies are more able to practice futures studies methodologies, and their strategic projects analyses are for longer time horizon. The main constraints identified are related to the knowledge of the methodologies of futures studies, and this is mostly because of the limitation in identifying important issues to be analyzed and monitored about the future, which becomes, then, a gap of prospective analysis or a blind spot in the vision of the future. The consequence is that futures studies methodologies and its contributions for strategy has constraints. Therefore, the integration of futures studies and corporate strategy could benefit from applying a model to support it in two ways: (1) reducing the possibility of blind spots on relevant strategic issues about the future, and (2) supporting the assessment of: the practice of futures studies methods, the use of its results in decision-making and also the futures studies expertise application in the organization. The results confirm that.

A growing body of research is calling for radical transformation of society to avoid catastrophic levels of climate change and create a more sustainable and just future. To make this possible, climate researcher will need new approaches and methods that help envision and enable transformations. In this thesis I explore how transformative scenario studies can incorporate critical social theory to enable more reflexive and actionable results. I develop climate change scenarios for a Swedish municipality and adopt a novel combination of the Manoa method and causal layered analysis. This methodological contribution, combining the creativity of the Manoa method and critical perspective of causal layered analysis, is coupled with a transdisciplinary approach. Through collaboration with local actors, including political, private, and civil society representatives, the study maximizes the relevance of the results to the local community. Building on the area’s cultural heritage of oral storytelling, the final scenarios are developed in collaboration with local storytellers and presented back to the community as a set of short stories.  The study makes two noteworthy contributions. First, by allowing local context and culture to guide the creation and dissemination of results the study shows the power of a transdisciplinary approach. Second, by applying a critical theory lens, the study unveils how underlying assumptions limit our capacity to imagine different futures and that challenging these assumptions can increase the transformative potential of scenario research.

Face aux enjeux pour le futur posés par l’ampleur des dérèglements écologiques (changement climatique, extinction des espèces, pressions sur les ressources en eau…), les discours sur l’avenir se multiplient, qu’ils promettent une résolution des problèmes par la technologie, des modèles de société utopiques ou considèrent l’effondrement comme inéluctable. Ces discours sur l’avenir ont-ils une influence sur les situations concrètes de gestion de l’environnement ? Peuvent-ils soutenir ou contraindre l’action des acteurs cherchant à améliorer l’état des écosystèmes ? Cette thèse traite ces questions en s’intéressant aux démarches prospectives et à leur contribution à des stratégies d’acteurs défendant une prise en charge efficace des enjeux environnementaux. Grâce à huit études de cas, elle analyse comment des concepteurs d’interventions prospectives conçoivent ces démarches pour qu’elles fournissent des prises pour l’action d’acteurs d’environnement (agences de l’eau, gestionnaires d’espaces protégés, associations…). Les démarches prospectives influencent la « fabrique des futurs », c’est-à-dire la compétition entre différentes représentations de l’avenir des systèmes sociotechniques qui impose ou exclut certaines trajectoires de changement. Faire exister dans la fabrique des futurs des discours sur l’avenir crédibilisant une transformation de ces systèmes favorable aux enjeux écologiques fournit une ressource susceptible de renforcer le pouvoir d’acteurs d’environnement. Les concepteurs de prospectives travaillent à des reconnexions entre les discours sur l’avenir produits lors de leurs démarches et les processus de gestion de l’environnement. Ces reconnexions peuvent fournir, non sans difficultés, des prises sur les jeux d’acteurs, l’élaboration d’instruments de gestion de l’environnement et le fonctionnement des organisations impliquées. La thèse propose un cadre d’analyse pour accompagner la réflexion des concepteurs prospectifs dans la conception et la mise en œuvre de leurs démarches. Plus largement, elle ouvre des pistes de réflexion sur les enjeux stratégiques de la production de discours sur l’avenir pour participer aux transitions des systèmes sociotechniques. / Faced by challenges for the future such as that posed by the extent of ecological disruption (climate change, species extinction, pressure on water resource), the narratives regarding the future are ever multiplying, whether promising solutions via technology, models of a utopian society, or considering collapse as inevitable. Do said narratives play a part in the practical implementation of environmental management and are they supporting or restraining the action of those seeking to improve the state of ecosystems? This thesis addresses these issues by investigating the contribution of futures studies to the strategies of stakeholders acting for an effective management of environmental issues. Through eight case studies, the research work analyses how designers build futures studies so that they can provide opportunities for action to environmental actors (i.e. water agencies, protected areas managers, NGOs etc.). Futures studies influence the “manufacture of futures”, that is, the competition between various future depictions of sociotechnical systems which results in imposing or excluding certain pathways of change. By making visible, in the manufacture of futures, narratives which lend credibility to transformations of socioecological systems in favour of ecological issues, futures studies may empower environmental actors. Futures studies designers connect the results of their interventions with processes in environmental management situations. These connections can provide, not without difficulty, opportunities to influence power relationships, the negotiation of environmental management actions, and the internal processes of organisations involved. This thesis offers an analytical framework to support the strategic thinking of futures studies designers in the design and implementation of their interventions. Furthermore, it opens up new avenues on the strategic issues of producing narratives to support the transitions of sociotechnical systems.

The creation of futures scenarios is a tool to addresschallenges towards sustainability in planning and thebuilt environment. Scenarios in the project BeyondGDP growth explore futures where priority is givento social and environmental aspects and economicgrowth is regarded as uncertain. When futures areused as an input to planning, there has to be anawareness of the possible consequences of those.Sustainability assessment for futures scenarios aimsto give a comprehensive assessment of how differentscenarios can affect relevant aspects. This thesis gives an overview of current methods forsustainability assessment of futures scenarios. It alsoproposes improvements to one of them and tests iton the Beyond GDP growth scenarios. SAFS (SustainabilityAssessment Framework for Scenarios) isthe method selected. SAFS considers environmentaland social aspects providing qualitative results anduses consumption perspective and life cycle approach. Improvements to SAFS are proposed in two directions.First, the Doughnut developed by Raworth(2012) is integrated in the method. It gives a graphicrepresentation, putting each aspect in context withthe others and facilitate the communication of theassessment results. Second, an alternative approachis suggested to evaluate the consequences of environmentaldeprivation on social conditions. Thisalternative approach can also help communicateuncertainties. / Att skapa framtidsscenarier är ett verktyg för attadressera utmaningar relaterade till hållbarhet inomsamhällsplanering och samhällsbyggnad. ProjektetBortom BNP-tillväxt utforskar i ett antal scenarierolika framtider där sociala och miljömässiga aspekterfår prioritet och ekonomisk tillväxt betraktas somosäker. När framtidsscenarier används som inputi samhällsplanering behöver det finnas en medvetenhetom dessa framtiders möjliga konsekvenser. Hållbarhetsbedömning av framtida scenarier utgören omfattande utvärdering av hur olika scenarier kanförväntas påverka relevanta aspekter. Den här uppsatsen ger en översikt över befintligametoder för hållbarhetsbedömning av framtidsscenarier,den applicerar en av dessa metoder - SAFS(Sustainability Assessment Framework for Scenarios) -på scenarierna inom Bortom BNP-tillväxt och föreslårförbättringar till metoden. SAFS väljs därför att densom metod tar hänsyn till såväl miljö- som socialaaspekter, ger kvalitativa resultat och utvärderar scenariernaur ett konsumtions- och livscykelperspektiv. Två förbättringar av SAFS föreslås. Den ena är attintegrera Raworths “Doughnut” (2012) eftersomden erbjuder ett sätt att grafiskt representera allautvärderade aspekter tillsammans och underlättaratt kommunicera resultatet från bedömningen. Denandra förbättringen innebär ett annat angreppssättför att utvärdera konsekvenserna av miljöförstöringför sociala aspekter. Det föreslagna angreppssättetkan även underlätta att kommunicera metodens inneboendeosäkerheter gällande resultaten. / Beyond GDP growth

This study explores how futures studies could engage with critical feminist perspectives in an intrinsic manner and what feminist futures might mean. The study brings attention to the less discussed subject of epistemological basis in futures studies. Literature study and semi-structured interviews with practitioners and researchers working with feminist approaches in the fields related to futures development was deployed. I’ve analyzed Wendell Bell’s discussion on epistemological foundation of futures studies from feminist epistemological perspective, and have suggested the potential of feminist epistemology of situated knowledges and partial objectivity for futures studies. Based on the findings from the semi-structured interviews, an alternative feminist scenario set in Swedish society in the year of 2050 in the format of a fiction is presented with the aim to provide a detailed and situated narrative of political and daily lives in feminist futures. The feminist futures scenario should not be understood as the singular feminist future suggested for implementation. The intention is to demonstrate how the visionary dimensions of feminist studies could be articulated in various forms of futures studies, and to open up space for rich debates on envisioning feminist futures. / Denna studie utforskar hur framtidsstudier skulle kunna anta ett kritiskt feministiskt perspektiv på ett djuplodande sätt och vad feministiska framtider skulle kunna innebära. Litteraturstudier och semistrukturerade intervjuer med utövare och forskare som arbetar med feministiska tillvägagångssätt inom fält relaterade till framtidsutveckling har genomförts. Jag har analyserat Wendell Bells diskussion om den epistemologiska grunden för framtidsstudier utifrån ett feministiskt epistemologiskt perspektiv, och har föreslagit feministisk epistemologi om situerad kunskap och partiell objektivitet som potentiell epistemologi för framtidsstudier. Utifrån fynden i de semistrukturerade intervjuerna presenteras ett alternativt feministiskt scenario för ett svenskt samhälle år 2050 i ett fiktivt format med syftet att ge ett detaljerat och situerat narrativ om det politiska och dagliga livet inom feministiska framtider. Det feministiska framtidsscenariot bör inte läsas som den enda feministiska framtiden avsedd för implementering. Avsikten är att visa hur feministiska studiers visionära dimensioner kan uttryckas på olika sätt i framtidsstudier och ge utrymme för en bred debatt om hur feministiska framtider kan gestaltas.

No description available.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: The aim of this research report is to identify the alternative service delivery models that could deliver effective and efficient services to the South African public in future. The current economic realities, the effects of globalisation, the potential for technological innovation and the public‟s demand for better services have led the South African government to reconsider the manner in which services are being rendered. A futures methodology tool that was employed in understanding the environment in which services are delivered in South Africa is the environmental scanning. Environmental scanning which took the form of literature review, analysis of statistics already produced by other researchers, official publications and correspondence, newspaper surveys, pamphlets and newsletters, dissertations and theses as well as information from the internet will be employed in this study. Constructive environmental scanning which encompasses both material monism (also known as pop-ism) and the transcendental monism (Naude.2008; 53) was employed to develop a sound understanding of the environment (factors and forces) which have a bearing on the futures of the public service delivery. This exercise revealed that in South Africa services delivery is influenced by the following driving forces (environments): cultural and social, political and legislative, technological and economic. The environmental scanning also revealed that due to the importance attached to service delivery; government had to move away from the conventional approaches to public service delivery where government was the sole provider of services to the public and sought alternative ways of delivering services to the public. The following alternative service delivery models were adopted by government: contracting out, concession, leasing, privatization, management contract, and Electronic government as alternative models of service delivery. Notwithstanding the success of most of the models, some of these proved to be a breeding ground for nepotism, corruption, fraud and a paradise for white collar criminals. Political interference, that masquerades as political oversight is the order of the day. All of these are taking place at the expense of services delivery and are costing the government dearly. Government viewed this as an unhealthy state of affairs and also realised that this situation cannot be left to perpetuate into the future. Most importantly, government has awoken to the reality that the future can no longer be left to chance. Scenario planning was adopted as the research methodology employed in anticipating and preparing for the future. In the quest for v seeking alternative service delivery models for the future, the research report adopted the six stages of scenario planning. The chief value of scenario planning is that it allows policy-makers to make and learn from mistakes without risking career-limiting failures in real life. Further, policymakers can make these mistakes in a safe, unthreatening, game-like environment, while responding to a wide variety of concretely-presented situations based on facts. Scenario planning has an added benefit of allowing participants the latitude to think freely, allows creativity and encourages innovation.

Thesis (MPhil)--Stellenbosch University, 2011. / Africa is the continent where home sapiens was born and with its worn out soils, fitful rain and rising population could very well provide a glimpse of our species’ future. The trends that are behind the current deterioration in food security go far beyond agriculture itself. South Africa is food secure at a national level and has been meeting its food needs from domestic sources in the past twenty years. However, in spite of its food secure status, 35% or 14.3 million South Africans are vulnerable to food insecurity. Food security challenges appear to be considerable against a backdrop of a South Africa being a net importer of wheat together with local cereal production that can fluctuate by up to 36% between years. It is unknown to what extend the true impact of climate change might affect this and other agricultural activity; a declining indigenous population as the HIV/AIDS pandemic takes effect; a population poorly endowed with an entitlement to gain access to sufficient food and nutrition; a dependency on oil for energy resulting in an outflow of foreign exchange, expensive agriculture and agricultural crops changed into fuel crops and markets that allocates the limited resources, but not feeding the needy poor. Considering the above, the determinants of food security for South Africa were grouped under the following headings: - Entitlement - Demography - Agriculture - Energy - Climate change - Markets. Nobody who has money to pay for food is starving therefore, given the pervasiveness of malnutrition, the money made by merchants in the food trade does seem an affront to common notions of economic justice. The economic and political point is missed when merchants are blamed for conditions that promoted huge food imports and malnutrition. Merchants are not interested in famine but in commercial markets. These merchants thrive upon a system that excludes the hungry. Recent protectionist behaviour by food export countries and the structural shift in the demand of food require South Africa to evaluate its food security determinants. South Africa requires accurate policies to guide its food security efforts towards 2030.