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What climate change for the 21st century ? A projection with LMD5-CLIO2 and its sensitivity to freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheetPoncin, Chantal 08 September 2003 (has links)
The Earth's climate is changing. This is a
conclusion of the Third Assessment Report
published by the International Panel on Climate
Change. The increasing concentrations of
greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols alter the
energy path through the atmosphere. In the
future, a likely consequence of the induced
global warming is an increased melting of the
Greenland ice sheet. This could lead to abrupt
climatic modifications associated with the
collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the
North Atlantic.
To investigate this issue, a coupled model of
the climate system has been developed. Most
components of this system are taken into account
by this model. LMD5, an atmospheric general
circulation model originating from the
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique in Paris,
simulates the atmosphere. CLIO2, an oceanic
general circulation model set up at the Institut
d'Astronomie et de Géophysique G. Lemaître at the
UCL, accounts for the ocean and the sea ice.
Finally, GISM is a Greenland ice-sheet model
developed at the Vrije Universiteit Brussel (VUB).
The atmospheric and oceanic components had
already been coupled. A new
version has been elaborated during this thesis
to enable long-term realistic simulations. To
restrain the initial drift, adjustements have
been made in atmospheric, oceanic and sea-ice
parameters in collaboration with the research
teams that set up the models. Other modifications
have been performed in the framework of climate
change experiments to separately handle greenhouse
gases and sulphate aerosols. Finally, LMD5-CLIO2
has been coupled to GISM in collaboration with
VUB researchers.
Validation of LMD5-CLIO2 implies a 150-year long
control simulation under constant 1970 forcings.
The validation is twofold: on the one hand, the
LMD5-CLIO2 results have been contrasted with
observational estimates and on the other hand,
these have been compared to other coupled models
results. This leads to the conclusions that
LMD5-CLIO2 simulates relatively well the present-
day climate and that it performs as well as many
other coupled models.
Two climate change experiments have been carried
out using the IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The first
one deals with the impact of greenhouse gases
and sulphate aerosols on the 21st century climate.
The globally averaged warming reaches 2.4°C at
the end of the 21st century compared to 1970. The
hydrological cycle is amplified: precipitation
increases by 3.3 % over the same period. This
corroborates the projections of other coupled
models. Consequently, it improves our confidence
in the LMD5-CLIO2 simulations. The second climate
change experiment performed with LMD5-CLIO2-GISM
investigates the impact of the Greenland ice-sheet
freshwater flux on the North Atlantic
thermohaline circulation. To our knowledge, it is
the first time that such a complex coupled model
is used to analyse this issue. In this simulation,
deep convection in the North Atlantic ocean
shuts down at the end of the 21st century, which
is an unusual result. The strong and abrupt
reduction of the intensity of the thermohaline
circulation implies significant mainly local
modifications of sea ice and of the atmosphere.
Cautions should be exercised to this projection.
Firstly, LMD5-CLIO2 has deficiencies which
probably influence the results. Secondly,
modifications of the initial conditions could
lead to another projection: such spectacular
event not occurring or differences as to when it
happens. Consequently, other ensemble simulations
should been performed. Thirdly, the current
simulation is too short to know if the reduction
is temporary or not. Longer experiments are
therefore required.
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Reconstruction of the 1979-2005 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using satellite data and the regional climate model MARFettweis, Xavier 28 August 2006 (has links)
In order to improve our knowledge on the current state and variability of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), a 27-year simulation (1979-2005) has been performed with the coupled atmosphere-snow regional model MAR. This simulation reveals an increase in the main factors of the SMB which are, on the one hand, the snowfall (+ 1.6 ± 1.8 km3 yr-1) in winter and on the other hand, the run-off (+ 4.2 ± 1.9 km3 yr-1) in summer. The net effect of these two competing factors leads to a SMB loss rate of – 2.7 ± 3.0 km3 yr-1, which has a significance of 87%. The melt extent derived from the passive microwave satellite data since 1979 also shows this trend. The melt water supply has increased because the Greenland ice sheet has been warming up by + 0.09 ± 0.04 °C yr-1 since 1979. This warming comes from a uniform increase of downward infra-red radiation which can not be explained by the natural variability. These changes result very likely from the global warming induced by human activities. As a result, it seems that: i) increased melting dominates over increased accumulation in a warming scenario, ii) the Greenland ice sheet has been significantly losing mass since the beginning of the 1980's by an increasing melt water run-off as well as by a probable increase of iceberg discharge into the ocean due to the "Zwally effect" (the melt water-induced ice sheet flow acceleration) and iii) the Greenland ice sheet is projected to continue to lose mass in the future. The Greenland ice sheet melting could have an effect on the stability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) and the global sea level rise. On the one hand, increases in the freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet (glacier discharge and run-off) could perturb the THC by reducing the density contrast driving it. On the other hand, the melting of the whole Greenland ice sheet would account for a global mean sea level rise of 7.4 m.
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Reconstruction of the 1979-2005 Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance using satellite data and the regional climate model MARFettweis, Xavier 28 August 2006 (has links)
In order to improve our knowledge on the current state and variability of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (SMB), a 27-year simulation (1979-2005) has been performed with the coupled atmosphere-snow regional model MAR. This simulation reveals an increase in the main factors of the SMB which are, on the one hand, the snowfall (+ 1.6 ± 1.8 km3 yr-1) in winter and on the other hand, the run-off (+ 4.2 ± 1.9 km3 yr-1) in summer. The net effect of these two competing factors leads to a SMB loss rate of – 2.7 ± 3.0 km3 yr-1, which has a significance of 87%. The melt extent derived from the passive microwave satellite data since 1979 also shows this trend. The melt water supply has increased because the Greenland ice sheet has been warming up by + 0.09 ± 0.04 °C yr-1 since 1979. This warming comes from a uniform increase of downward infra-red radiation which can not be explained by the natural variability. These changes result very likely from the global warming induced by human activities. As a result, it seems that: i) increased melting dominates over increased accumulation in a warming scenario, ii) the Greenland ice sheet has been significantly losing mass since the beginning of the 1980's by an increasing melt water run-off as well as by a probable increase of iceberg discharge into the ocean due to the "Zwally effect" (the melt water-induced ice sheet flow acceleration) and iii) the Greenland ice sheet is projected to continue to lose mass in the future. The Greenland ice sheet melting could have an effect on the stability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) and the global sea level rise. On the one hand, increases in the freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet (glacier discharge and run-off) could perturb the THC by reducing the density contrast driving it. On the other hand, the melting of the whole Greenland ice sheet would account for a global mean sea level rise of 7.4 m.
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Modeling the Greenland Ice Sheet response to climate change in the past and futureRobinson, Alexander January 2011 (has links)
The Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) contains enough water volume to raise global sea level by over 7 meters. It is a relic of past glacial climates that could be strongly affected by a warming world. Several studies have been performed to investigate the sensitivity of the ice sheet to changes in climate, but large uncertainties in its long-term response still exist. In this thesis, a new approach has been developed and applied to modeling the GIS response to climate change. The advantages compared to previous approaches are (i) that it can be applied over a wide range of climatic scenarios (both in the deep past and the future), (ii) that it includes the relevant feedback processes between the climate and the ice sheet and (iii) that it is highly computationally efficient, allowing simulations over very long timescales.
The new regional energy-moisture balance model (REMBO) has been developed to model the climate and surface mass balance over Greenland and it represents an improvement compared to conventional approaches in modeling present-day conditions. Furthermore, the evolution of the GIS has been simulated over the last glacial cycle using an ensemble of model versions. The model performance has been validated against field observations of the present-day climate and surface mass balance, as well as paleo information from ice cores. The GIS contribution to sea level rise during the last interglacial is estimated to be between 0.5-4.1 m, consistent with previous estimates. The ensemble of model versions has been constrained to those that are consistent with the data, and a range of valid parameter values has been defined, allowing quantification of the uncertainty and sensitivity of the modeling approach.
Using the constrained model ensemble, the sensitivity of the GIS to long-term climate change was investigated. It was found that the GIS exhibits hysteresis behavior (i.e., it is multi-stable under certain conditions), and that a temperature threshold exists above which the ice sheet transitions to an essentially ice-free state. The threshold in the global temperature is estimated to be in the range of 1.3-2.3°C above preindustrial conditions, significantly lower than previously believed. The timescale of total melt scales non-linearly with the overshoot above the temperature threshold, such that a 2°C anomaly causes the ice sheet to melt in ca. 50,000 years, but an anomaly of 6°C will melt the ice sheet in less than 4,000 years. The meltback of the ice sheet was found to become irreversible after a fraction of the ice sheet is already lost – but this level of irreversibility also depends on the temperature anomaly. / Das grönländische Inlandeis (GIS) besteht aus einem Wasservolumen das ausreicht, um den globalen Meeresspiegel um 7 Meter ansteigen zu lassen. Es ist ein Relikt der vergangenen Eiszeit, das in einer zunehmend wärmer werdenden Welt stark in Mitleidenschaft gezogen werden könnte. In der vorliegenden Dissertation ist ein neues Verfahren zur Modellierung des Antwortverhaltens des Inlandeises auf Klimaänderungen entwickelt und angewendet worden. Die Vorteile des neuen Verfahrens im Vergleich zu den bisherigen Verfahren sind, (i) dass es über einen groen Bereich von Klimaszenarien (sowohl für die ferne Vergangenheit als auch für die Zukunft) anwendbar ist, (ii) dass es die wesentlichen Rückkopplungsprozesse zwischen Klima und Inlandeis enthält und (iii) dass es wegen seiner guten Rechenzeiteffizienz Simulationen über sehr lange Zeitskalen erlaubt.
Das neue Modell (REMBO) ist für die Modellierung des Klimas und der Massenbilanz an der grönländischen Oberfläche entwickelt worden und stellt ein verbessertes Verfahren im Vergleich zu den bisherigen dar. Die Entwicklung von GIS über den letzten glazialen Zyklus ist mittels eines Ensembles von verschiedenen Modellversionen simuliert worden. Anschließend ist die Tauglichkeit der Modellversionen durch Vergleich mit Beobachtungsdaten des gegenwärtigen Klimas und der Oberflächenmassenbilanz, sowie mit paleoklimatischen Rekonstruktionen von Eisbohrkernen verifiziert worden. Der Anteil von GIS am Meeresspiegelanstieg während des letzten Interglazials ist im Bereich von 0.5 bis 4.1 m berechnet worden, was konsistent mit bisherigen Schätzungen ist. Von den Ensemblesimulationen sind diejenigen ausgewählt worden, deren Ergebnisse gut mit den Daten übereinstimmen. Durch die Auswahl von geeigneten Modellversionen sind gleichzeitig die Unsicherheiten der Parameterwerte begrenzt worden, so dass sich nun mit dem neuen Verfahren die Sensitivität von GIS auf Klimaänderungen bestimmen lässt.
Mit den ausgewählten Modellversionen ist die Sensitivität von GIS auf langfristige Klimaänderungen untersucht worden. Es zeigt sich, dass das GIS ein Hystereseverhalten besitzt (d.h., eine Multistabilität für gewisse Klimazustände) und dass ein Temperaturschwellwert existiert. Bei Überschreiten des Schwellwertes bleibt das GIS nicht erhalten und wird langsam eisfrei werden. Der Temperaturschwellwert der globalen Mitteltemperatur relativ zur vorindustriellen Mitteltemperatur ist im Bereich 1.3-2.3°C ermittelt worden und liegt damit deutlich niedriger als bisher angenommen. Die Zeitdauer bis zum völligen Abschmelzen zeigt ein nichtlineares Verhalten hinsichtlich einer Erwärmung über den ermittelten Schwellwert. Eine Erwärmung von 2°C relativ zur vorindustriellen Zeit führt zu einem Abschmelzen nach 50.000 Jahren, aber eine Erwärmung um 6°C lässt das Inlandeis bereits nach 4.000 Jahren abschmelzen. Ein weiteres Ergebnis ist, dass der Abschmelzvorgang irreversibel werden kann, nachdem ein gewisser Anteil des Inlandeises abgeschmolzen ist – jedoch ist die Irreversibilität eines Abschmelzvorganges auch von der Temperaturanomalie abhängig.
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Cambro-Ordovician microorganisms: acritarchs and endolithsStockfors, Martin January 2005 (has links)
Organic-walled microfossils are abundant and taxonomically diverse in Cambrian-Ordovician strata; some are important for biostratigraphy and for the correlation of geological successions. New assemblages of Cambrian-Ordovician acritarchs from Kolguev Island, Arctic Russia and Middle Cambrian ichnofossils of endoliths from Peary Land, North Greenland are studied. Twenty-seven acritarch species are described in detail and 10 taxa are left under open nomenclature. The diagnosis of one genus is restricted, and two other are emended. New combinations are proposed for three species and one new species is recognised. The studied acritarch assemblages are taxonomically rich and age-diagnostic and used to recognise Upper Cambrian and Tremadoc strata on Kolguev Island. The sedimentologically continuous successions provide for the first time palaeontological evidence of Cambrian strata in the north-eastern sector of Europe. The exact level of the Cambrian-Ordovician boundary was distinguished together with stratigraphic intervals equivalent to the Peltura and Acerocare zones of the Upper Cambrian of Baltica. The newly established relative age of the lowermost sedimentary succession overlying the Timanian unconformity allows verification of the minimum age of the Timanian deformation and the time-span of the hiatus bound to this unconformity. Endoliths occur in the fossil record from the Early Archean and they played an important role in the formation of stromatolites and the process of bioerosion and biodegradation. Endoliths that have actively bored into brachiopod shells or carbonate grains (euendoliths), and some that inhabited the cavities inside brachiopod shells (cryptoendoliths) are described. Borings within the carbonate grains extended with a dentritic pattern, whereas those within the brachiopod shells were formed by a multifilamentous euendolith which produced characteristic longitudinally ridged galleries. The cryptoendolithic morphologies include indeterminate coccoid masses and at least two filamentous forms. However, considerable variation in the dimensions of the currently phosphatised diagenetic crusts of the cryptoendoliths hinders discrimination.
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Palaeosurfaces and palaeovalleys on North Atlantic previously glaciated passive margins : reference forms for conclusions on uplift and erosionBonow, Johan M. January 2004 (has links)
Palaeosurfaces and palaeovalleys are landforms under destruction in the present climate and/or tectonic regime, and thus mainly reflect processes not active today. Uplifted palaeosurfaces exist along the formerly glaciated passive continental margins around the North Atlantic. Large-scale landform development has recently become a matter of interest also for geologists and geophysicists as the result of an increasing awareness that a thorough knowledge of uplift, erosion, deposition and development of landforms along continental margins can only be accomplished by combined studies using independent data from different scientific disciplines. The present study focuses on one of these above data sets; the landform record. Two uplifted areas, southern Norway and central West Greenland, were selected for landform analysis of high resolution digital elevation models, aerial photographs, relation between landforms in basement and cover rocks, offshore seismic lines and X-ray diffraction of clay minerals in saprolites. In southern Norway, analysis of slope angles within the range of pediment slopes was combined with analysis of main valley incision. This resulted in the identification of three main planation surfaces in a stepped sequence formed along the main valleys as a consequence of tectonic uplift events, maybe in the Palaeogene, (in total >1000 m). Two phases of late uplift (~900 m), probably in the Neogene, triggered incision of deep fluvial valleys, later reshaped by glacial erosion (up to 300 m). In central West Greenland palaeosurfaces were analysed in relation to cover rock of different age. An exhumed etch surface, characterized by a typical hilly relief, occurs on Disko and south of Disko Bugt, and are by the presence of cover rocks shown to be sub-Palaeocene in origin. To the north, a post-Eocene erosion surface on Nuussuaq, cuts across basement and basalt and was probably formed close to sea level. Uplift in two phases elevated this surface up to 2000 m above present sea level and broke it in differently tilted tectonic blocks. South of Disko Bugt, a planation surface, of probably the same age as the one on Nuussuaq, cuts the tilted etch surface, and also cuts across different bedrock types. The planation surface rises towards the south and splits in two surfaces, separated in altitude up to 300 m, within two highly elevated areas. The separation into two surfaces indicate two uplift events: A first minor event of a few hundred metres in the uplift centres resulted in incision of the lower planation surface. This event was later followed by a major uplift event amounting to >1000 m. Correlation with the offshore sedimentary record suggests that both uplift events occurred in the Neogene. The erosion pattern calculated from one reconstructed palaeosurface to present topography shows large spatial variations. This is interpreted as an effect of differential bedrock resistance and local variations of glacial erosion (400–1300 m in low areas). The results presented in this thesis demonstrate the usefulness of palaeosurfaces and palaeovalleys as tools for deciphering magnitude of uplift events, establishing relative event chronologies and for calculation of erosion. Moreover integrated studies of palaeolandforms, offshore geology and thermal chronologies, are shown to be invaluable when used to solve the spatial and temporal patterns of uplift, erosion and deposition.
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Evolution and taxonomy of Cambrian arthropods from Greenland and SwedenStein, Martin January 2008 (has links)
Arthropods have a rich fossil record spanning the Phanerozoic. Biomineralized forms such as the extinct trilobites are particularly common and are proven index fossils for biostratigraphy. Forms with an unmineralized cuticle are more rare, preserved only in so called konservat lagerstätten. Cambrian strata of Greenland have yielded rich trilobite faunas with potential for intercontinental correlation of Cambrian strata, but also an exceptionally preserved fauna, the Sirius Passet Lagerstätte. The first part of this thesis is concerned with trilobite biotratigraphy of the provisional Cambrian Series 2 in Greenland. The second part is concerned with exceptionally preserved arthropods from the Sirius Passet Lagerstätte, but also from 'Orsten' deposits from the Cambrian of Sweden. Perissopyge phenax occurs in the Henson Gletscher and Paralleldal formations spanning the Series 2 and 3 boundary interval in North Greenland. It also occurs in the Sekwi Formation of Yukon Territory, demonstrating that the species may hold potential for correlation within Laurentia. An indeterminate species of Perissopyge is shown to occur in the Ella Island Formation of North-East Greenland together with Olenellus cf. hanseni, which is similar to Olenellus cf. truemani described from the Henson Gletscher Formation. If this correlation is further corroborated it would offer a first tie-point for the An t'Sron Formation of North-West Scotland which yields Fritzolenellus lapworthi, herein reported for the first time from the Bastion Formation which underlies the Ella Island Formation. Oelandocaris oelandica from ‘Orsten’ deposits in the Cambrian series 3 and 4 boundary interval in Sweden is an early representative of the Crustacean stem lineage. Kiisortoqia avannaarsuensis is a new arthropod from the Sirius Passet Lagerstätte with robust antennulae strikingly similar to the 'raptorial' limb of the problematic anomalocaridids. The ventral morphology of the 'bivalved' Isoxys volucris is described for the first time and compared with other species assigned to Isoxys from Cambrian lagerstätten around the world. Finally, Siriocaris trolla, is a new arthropod that similarities with trilobites and certain ‘trilobitomorphs’ but seems to lack important synapomorphies of these taxa, though this may be due to preservational limitations in the material at hand.
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Remote sensing of supra-glacial lakes on the west Greenland Ice SheetJohansson, A. Malin January 2012 (has links)
The Greenland Ice Sheet is the largest ice sheet in the northern hemisphere. Ongoing melting of the ice sheet, resulting in increased mass loss relative to the longer term trend, has raised concerns about the stability of the ice sheet. Melt water generated at the surface is temporarily stored in supra-glacial lakes on the ice sheet. Connections between melt water generation, storage and ice sheet dynamics highlight the importance of the surface hydrological system. In this thesis different methods are used that improve our ability to observe the supra-glacial lake system on the west Greenland Ice Sheet. This region of the Greenland Ice Sheet has the most extensive supra-glacial hydrological system with a dense network of streams connecting lakes that can exceed several square kilometres in area. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) and visible-near infrared (VNIR) images are used to explore the potential of different sensor systems for regular observations of the supra-glacial lakes. SAR imagery is found to be a useful complement to VNIR data. VNIR data from moderate resolution sensors are preferred as these provide high temporal resolution data, ameliorating problems with cloud cover. The dynamic nature of the lakes makes automated classification difficult and manual mapping has been widely used. Here a new method is proposed that improves on existing methods by automating the identification and classification of lakes, and by introducing a flexible system that can capture the full range of lake forms. Applying our new method we are better able to analyse the evolution of lakes over a number of melt seasons. We find that lakes initiate after approximately 40 positive degree days. Most lakes exist for less than 20 days before draining, or later in the season, and less often, freezing over. Using the automated method developed in this thesis lakes have been mapped in imagery from 2001–2010 at approximately five day intervals. / <p>At the time of the doctoral defense, the following papers were unpublished and had a status as follows: Paper 3: Manuscript. Paper 4: Manuscript. Paper 5: Manuscript.</p>
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Measurement and analysis of ambient atmospheric particulate matter in urban and remote environmentsHagler, Gayle S. W. 09 May 2007 (has links)
Atmospheric particulate matter pollution is a challenging environmental concern in both urban and remote locations worldwide. It is intrinsically difficult to control, given numerous anthropogenic and natural sources (e.g. fossil fuel combustion, biomass burning, dust, and seaspray) and atmospheric transport up to thousands of kilometers after production. In urban regions, fine particulate matter (particles with diameters under 2.5 m) is of special concern for its ability to penetrate the human respiratory system and threaten cardiopulmonary health. A second major impact area is climate, with particulate matter altering Earth s radiative balance through scattering and absorbing solar radiation, modifying cloud properties, and reducing surface reflectivity after deposition in snow-covered regions. While atmospheric particulate matter has been generally well-characterized in populated areas of developed countries, particulate pollution in developing nations and remote regions is relatively unexplored. This thesis characterizes atmospheric particulate matter in locations that represent the extreme ends of the spectrum in terms of air pollution the rapidly-developing and heavily populated Pearl River Delta Region of China, the pristine and climate-sensitive Greenland Ice Sheet, and a remote site in the Colorado Rocky Mountains. In China, fine particles were studied through a year-long field campaign at seven sites surrounding the Pearl River Delta. Fine particulate matter was analyzed for chemical composition, regional variation, and meteorological impacts. On the Greenland Ice Sheet and in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, the carbonaceous fraction (organic and elemental carbon) of particulate matter was studied in the atmosphere and snow pack. Analyses included quantifying particulate chemical and optical properties, assessing atmospheric transport, and evaluating post-depositional processing of carbonaceous species in snow.
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Aboriginal participation in commercial fisheries of the Canadian North : the Inuit experience /Gibbons, Roy, January 2002 (has links)
Thesis (M.M.S.)--Memorial University of Newfoundland, 2002. / Bibliography: leaves 83-90.
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