Paradoxically, pepole avoid being totally the same with others to keep their uniquness but follow the fads to avoid isolation. We construct a simple model under this concept to explain the empirical findings of forecasters’ behavior such as old forecasters are more radical and late forecasters tend to anti-herd. We show that forecasters' forecasts are not necessarilly unbiased when they consider the benefit of making correct forecasts and the cost of being wrong. Furthermore, we extended our model and show that when uninformed agent cannot differentiate which informed agents is better, she chooses mean of the two experts' opinions when the difference of the opinions is small but choose randomly from the two experts' opinions when the difference is big.

Nyanländande Generation Y håller på att positionera sig på arbetsmarknaden och omfattas av individer födda inom intervallet 1980 – 1995. Det återfinns dessvärre ytterst lite forskning gällande generationens investeringsbeteende. Mestadels av tidigare forskning har hittills handlat om hur tidigare generationer, så som Baby Boomers och Generation X, tenderar att investera. Denna studie har därför försökt bidra till att fylla ut tomrummet i kunskapen beträffande Generation Y. Studien utreder investeringsbeteendet hos Generation Y genom att undersöka hur specifika karaktäristika påverkar deras sä̈tt att investera. Således är syftet med denna studie att kartlägga och analysera hur Generation Y:s särskilda karaktäristika påverkar deras investeringsbeteende. Tillvägagångssättet har varit att det först konstruerades en modell utifrån den redan tillgängliga forskningen, varpå uppsatsen därefter avsåg att testa validiteten och kvaliteten i våra antaganden och i den upprä̈ttade modellen. Uppsatsen utfördes med hjälp av en kvantitativ metod med positivistisk filosofi och deduktiv ansats. Undersökningsverktyget som till största grad användes för studien var en internetbaserad enkät där respondenterna fick ta del av en rad olika påståenden. Respondenterna som har deltagit i denna studie är till majoriteten bosatta i Sverige och omfattar respondenter som vid undersökningstillfället var 15 – 70 år. Denna studie indikerar slutligen att Generation Y har ett särskilt investeringsbeteende och att deras specifika sätt att investera på grundar sig i deras särskilda karaktäristika, vilket också påvisas med hjälp av ett antal statistiska modeller. Resultatet åskådliggör ytterligare att även demografiska faktorer som modersmål, kön och ålder påverkar investeringsbeteendet. Ett förslag till framtida forskning kan vara att komplettera uppsatsens kvantitativa metod med en kvalitativ metod. Detta tillvägagångssätt hade således kunnat bidra till en djupare förståelse för forskningen och ett bättre resultat och har därför varit av stort värde för uppsatsen. / The newly arriving Generation Y, that embraces the individuals born within 1980 – 1995, is on the way of positioning themselves on the labour-market. Unfortunately, there has not been done much research on the investment behavior of this generation. Mostly of previous research has been about how previous generations, the Baby Boomers and Generation X, tend to invest. This study therefore sought to help fill the gap in knowledge regarding the Generation Y. This study investigates the investment behavior of Generation Y by examining how specific characteristics affect their approach to investing. Thus, the purpose of this study was to identify and analyze how Generation Y’s specific characteristics affect their investment behavior. The approach has initially been that a model was constructed based on the already available research, whereupon the paper then aimed to test the validity and quality of our assumptions and of the established model. The essay was performed by a quantitative method with a positivistic philosophy and deductive logic. The research tool for this study was, to the biggest extent, an online survey in which a variety of claims were presented to the respondents. The respondents who participated in this study, with the majority residing in Sweden, were at the time of the study 15 – 70 years old. This study indicates that Generation Y has a particular investment behavior and that their specific way of investing is based on certain characteristics, which is also shown by the several statistical models that have been used. The result further illustrates that also demographic factors, such as native language, gender and age, has affection on the investment behavior of Generation Y. A proposal for future research might be to supplement the essay’s quantitative method with a qualitative one. This approach could possibly contribute to a deeper understanding of science and a better result, and would therefore be of great value to the essay.

Thesis (Ph. D.)--Cambridge University. / "Max Planck Institute for Social Anthropology"--Cover. Includes bibliographical references (p. [245]-271.

從實證中，以持股月變動率的大小，分成十組進行檢定與分析，當期的持股變動與當期報酬的關係，在各法人之間是相當顯著，其中以正向持股變化（買進）的十分位數較具有顯著性，隱含法人善於在當期改變持股組合，以投信的改變程度最為顯著。至於報酬對於持股變化的延伸性（往前或是往後），以總體法人來看，是以當期以及下一期的報酬較能解釋法人持股變化與報酬率有正的關係。至於再向前或向後延展一期或兩期，法人持股變化與報酬會呈現負的關係，隱含有殺跌的現象。但在報酬率上，往後延伸（即後從眾行為的報酬）會有報酬迴歸的現象。 若是以當期報酬率分組（贏家-輸家），則三大法人在各組報酬上均呈現相當顯著的差異，各法人在投資組合的持股上具平均化，但各組內的持股變化（增減），以整體法人來說，以贏家組合較為顯著。隱含法人在當期有追漲的從眾行為。其中，以投信以及自營商較為顯著。外資的持股變化在組內並無明顯差異。若是改以報酬率的大小進行分組，並對組內的持股變化進行檢定與分析，法人之間的當期報酬普遍受到前一期報酬率的影響，但在持股變化上是以投信基金的調整投資組合持股變化較為積極。 在各變數之檢定中，從整體法人來說，各個變數對於當期持股比率是有很高的解釋力，整體法人會因為上一期的報酬、本期報酬、前一期之持股比率，來改變本期的持股比率。隱含整體法人會有採取feedback trading以及momentum的交易策略。但是，在外資法人來說，當期的報酬率卻不是改變當期持股比率的解釋因素。這與外資法人較重視基本面分析，而且對於產業研究是有相當深度。外資會以時間變化為觀察主軸，比較分析基本面是否會因時點的差異而有所改變，來進行持股調節。在自營商方面，因為肩負著券商整體盈虧的任務，比較重視短期的獲利實現，所以上一期的報酬率，並非本期持股調節的考量因素。而本期的報酬率與上一期的持股比率，是能夠解釋本期持股便動的原因。而投信基金，可能是因為績效評比的壓力，而且法令對於基金的操作限制也放寬很多，更加深基金經理人為求績效可能會增加提高風險性的需求。 不論是從以持股變化的檢定分析，以及，用報酬率為分組的檢定分析中，法人間存在有回饋交易的現象（feedback trading）。至於報酬的持續性（後從眾行為，以及從眾價格壓力）只對當期的持股變動有較大的影響。至於向前延伸或是向後延伸，報酬的衰減速度很快，也就是會有報酬迴歸的現象。

The occurence of financial contagion can lead to hazardous results for financial institutions, financial markets as well as for the whole economy. Therefore it can have even serious economic effects on everybody´s life. That is why it is of great interest to deeper understand its characteristics. As classical finance theory seems not to give the best answers to this topic, the young academic field of behavioural finance can deliver new insights. The main purpose of this work is to provide an introduction mainly to professionals in portfolio and risk management and help them to tackle the problem of contagion at an early stage. Therefore not only aspects of behavioural finance are discussed, but the topic contagion is also brought into connection with network analyses and the current regulation process. Our paper can not answer all questions related to contagion, but it can help the reader to better understand its main aspects and enables him to delve deeper into this field.

This study investigates investment behavior of Taiwan market participants from different aspects of measure, especially with regard to their tendency to forming herding behavior. By applying concepts of Cross-Sectional Absolute Dispersions (CSAD), we find significant evidence of herding behavior in the Taiwan market. Evidences suggest that the herding formation in Taiwan market is strongly influenced by the US market and we should not ignore the impact of globalization. With regard to the issue of financial crises, we find no herding behavior during the 1998 Asian Crisis but partial evidence shows that herding activities may be influenced by crisis during the 2000 Internet Bubble and 2008 Sub-prime Crisis in the Taiwan market. Moreover, all empirical results are reexamined using Quantile analysis to avoid potential bias in estimations. Finally, results from applying herding behavior in portfolio management indicate that investing in stocks of lower liquidity and volatility can reduce the risk of portfolios.

This paper investigates whether the bidding induces the occurrence of herding, and analyses the effects of behavioral factors, information, and fundamental characteristics of real estate on the performance of bank auction. Our sample is from July 2001 to January 2003, the real estate that intermediaries sold was held by bank in Taiwan, including 363 the real estate and the price of bidding under bank auction. We obtain some interesting implication. First of all, we find that herding of bidding not only could explain premium but also discount. After controlling informational factors and fundamental characteristics of real estate, it could not weaken the significance of herding of bidding. For the strategy of the reserve price by the vendor, the higher discount is to encourage bidding actively, which is consistent with the view of Welch (1992). Secondly, we find bidders could easily reduce search cost by observing the bidding of competitors under bank auction, and herding of bidding on the auction process could enhance efficiency of information aggregation. Furthermore, herding of bidding makes the performance of auction different between court and bank. Finally, we overcome the selective bias and find the real estate held by bank had poor performance under court auction; however, the real estate held by court had better performance under bank auction. This implies the mechanism of court auction should be transformed into the open-outcry bidding in order to achieve effective recovery of debt and the policy of reducing losses. Robustness analysis of this study, first of all, for the herd measure that not isolated from informational factors, we find the insignificant effect of behavioral factors on the performance of English mechanism, and auction premium and discount are dominated by the informational factors. Secondly, the choice of the methods about true value of real estate may affect the conditional probability of the herd measure, and make inconsistent conclusions that the effect of behavioral factors on the performance of English mechanism. Whether we choose cluster analysis or regression method to obtain the true value of real estate, the conclusion that the effect of behavioral factors on the performance of English mechanism could be supported, and those can not switch the results of the minimum sum method. Thus, the conclusion that behavioral factors influence the performance of the auction is full of evidences.

There are three purposes in this thesis. First of all, the thesis examines the market herding behavior of real estates in Taiwan. Second, if herding exists in the markets, what factors cause herding behavior? Finally, how does herding behavior affect market performance? The empirical results show there is no herding evidence in the real estates markets when market moves downward. There are different results between different real estates and periods when market moves upward. There is obvious herding behavior in the pre-sale houses in Taipei City. Herding behavior also exist lag phenomenon. During lag period, there is obvious herding behavior in the pre-sale houses in Taipei when market moves upward. There is weak herding behavior in the other real estates, including pre-sale houses of Taipei County, existing houses and land. We find that macro factors such as money supply, GDP growth rate, saving amount, incoming and micro factors such as market depth and market return in the last period will cause herding behavior. Finally, herding behavior, price volatility and transaction amount volatility have Granger causality. Herding behavior will makes price more efficient and increases transaction.

Thesis (doctoral)--Uppsala University, 1981. / One map on one folded leaf tipped in on cover p. 3. Additional (corrected) p. 97 inserted. Included bibliographical references (p. 511-526).

Magister Scientiae - MSc / Pastoralists in Africa have developed complex mechanisms by which they can alleviate the threat of drought. They practice mobility as one of the strategies to avoid the worst effects of natural stress and disperse grazing pressure. In the past in South Africa, the indigenous Nama people occupied large areas of land and moved around extensively to exploit seasonal differences in the availability of forage and water. With the settlement of the Europeans in the Cape the indigenous people lost most of their land to the colonists. The Nama people were, therefore, restricted to smaller rangelands and their patterns of rangeland use had to adapt to the spatial constraints. Descendants now herd livestock from semi-permanent stockposts that are scattered throughout the commons. Herders use a range of practices to manage their livestock. The aims of this study was to assess the agro-ecological knowledge of livestock keepers; assess the condition of the rangeland during drought; determine the herding strategies of herders during drought. / South Africa