O trabalho apresenta um processo de classificação de risco dos Certificados de Recebíveis Imobiliários (CRIs), quanto à expectativa de perda presente na carteira de créditos imobiliários, objeto de securitização. O texto, primeiramente, descreve o andamento das operações de securitização no Brasil e no mundo, além de aspectos particulares dessas operações. Em seguida, com maior ênfase, são descritas as principais etapas do processo de rating praticado pelas instituições classificadoras, assim como também, são identificados e analisados os riscos presentes nos CRIs. Riscos estes de origem mercadológica, macroeconômica, legal, e também, associados aos atributos dos créditos que compõem a carteira. Vale destacar, que o processo de classificação proposto tem como foco o investidor que compra o título, aplicando-se ainda, apenas aos CRIs lastreados em créditos imobiliários residenciais. Quanto ao processo de classificação em si, este envolve a simulação do fluxo de caixa da operação; a arbitragem de fronteiras de flutuação do comportamento das variáveis de risco manipuladas no cenário de referência; a geração randômica de uma amostra de laboratório, seguida da análise estatística do nível de perda presente na mesma e; enquadramento do resultado da análise estatística em uma matriz classificatória para obtenção da nota de risco dos CRIs. Portanto, ao fim do trabalho terão sido apresentados procedimentos que se entendem como válidos à análise da perda potencial de carteiras de créditos imobiliários residenciais, além de recomendações e orientações quanto a sua real aplicabilidade no mercado brasileiro. / The work presents a classification process of risk of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) in relation to the loss expectation in the housing loans portfolio that is object of securitization. Firstly, it is described how the operations of securitization are accomplished in Brazil and in the world, and beyond it is showed particular aspects of these operations. After that, it is emphasized the main stages of the risk classification process carried out by rating agencies, as well as are identified and analyzed the risks in the MBS. Those risks arise from areas as marketing, macroeconomics, legal origins, and also they are associated with the credits attributes that comprise the portfolio. It is important to consider that the risk classification process focus on the investor who purchases the stock quotes and it is applied only to the MBS collateralized in housing loans. How much to the process of classification in itself, this involves the simulation of the cash flow of the securitization operation for certain expected scene; the arbitration of borders of fluctuation for each variable of risk manipulated in the reference scene; use of laboratory sample, generated by the random method, for analysis statistics of the level of present loss in the same and; framing of the result of the analysis statistics in a matrix of classification to obtain the note of risk of the MBS. As main conclusions, some procedures are presented that enable the analysis of the portfolio potential loss of residential home loans, beyond recommendations and orientations in regard to its real applicability in the Brazilian market.

O trabalho apresenta um processo de classificação de risco dos Certificados de Recebíveis Imobiliários (CRIs), quanto à expectativa de perda presente na carteira de créditos imobiliários, objeto de securitização. O texto, primeiramente, descreve o andamento das operações de securitização no Brasil e no mundo, além de aspectos particulares dessas operações. Em seguida, com maior ênfase, são descritas as principais etapas do processo de rating praticado pelas instituições classificadoras, assim como também, são identificados e analisados os riscos presentes nos CRIs. Riscos estes de origem mercadológica, macroeconômica, legal, e também, associados aos atributos dos créditos que compõem a carteira. Vale destacar, que o processo de classificação proposto tem como foco o investidor que compra o título, aplicando-se ainda, apenas aos CRIs lastreados em créditos imobiliários residenciais. Quanto ao processo de classificação em si, este envolve a simulação do fluxo de caixa da operação; a arbitragem de fronteiras de flutuação do comportamento das variáveis de risco manipuladas no cenário de referência; a geração randômica de uma amostra de laboratório, seguida da análise estatística do nível de perda presente na mesma e; enquadramento do resultado da análise estatística em uma matriz classificatória para obtenção da nota de risco dos CRIs. Portanto, ao fim do trabalho terão sido apresentados procedimentos que se entendem como válidos à análise da perda potencial de carteiras de créditos imobiliários residenciais, além de recomendações e orientações quanto a sua real aplicabilidade no mercado brasileiro. / The work presents a classification process of risk of Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) in relation to the loss expectation in the housing loans portfolio that is object of securitization. Firstly, it is described how the operations of securitization are accomplished in Brazil and in the world, and beyond it is showed particular aspects of these operations. After that, it is emphasized the main stages of the risk classification process carried out by rating agencies, as well as are identified and analyzed the risks in the MBS. Those risks arise from areas as marketing, macroeconomics, legal origins, and also they are associated with the credits attributes that comprise the portfolio. It is important to consider that the risk classification process focus on the investor who purchases the stock quotes and it is applied only to the MBS collateralized in housing loans. How much to the process of classification in itself, this involves the simulation of the cash flow of the securitization operation for certain expected scene; the arbitration of borders of fluctuation for each variable of risk manipulated in the reference scene; use of laboratory sample, generated by the random method, for analysis statistics of the level of present loss in the same and; framing of the result of the analysis statistics in a matrix of classification to obtain the note of risk of the MBS. As main conclusions, some procedures are presented that enable the analysis of the portfolio potential loss of residential home loans, beyond recommendations and orientations in regard to its real applicability in the Brazilian market.

Det finansiella systemet är nära sammanlänkat med bolånemarknaden, tillgången till finansiering har blivit större och allt fler hushåll väljer att belåna sig. Det medför fördelar med även nackdelar då det finansiella systemet är ytterst känsligt för störningar på bolånemarknaden. Det är även svårt att konstatera vad som menas med en övervärderad bostadsmarknad då olika definitioner ges av olika aktörer. Prisutvecklingen ligger idag över sin långsiktiga trend vilket har gett upphov till spekulation om en eventuell bostadsbubbla. Enligt aktuella utredningar ser dock bostadspriserna ut att ha anpassat sig till nya tillväxtvillkor i form av sjunkande räntenivåer, lägre bostadsbyggande samt ökade hushållsinkomster och anses därmed i stor utsträckning kunna förklaras av fundamentala faktorer. I syfte att förhindra en osund utveckling på kreditmarknaden infördes ett bolånetak och sedan införandet har belåningsgraden för nya lån sjunkit, utöver det har även andelen bolån med belåningsgrad över 85 procent minskat. Det talas dock om huruvida belåningsgraden är hållbar och om säkerhetsmarginalerna är tillräckliga. Sammanfattningsvis redovisar studien att alltfler unga hushåll får hjälp av familj för att kunna etablera sig på bostadsmarknaden. Dessa unga hushåll har ofta irrationella förväntningar gällande bostadspriserna då de extrapolerar bakåt vid slutsatser om framtiden, samtidigt som merparten anser att priserna är övervärderade. Men till skillnad från den allmänna debatten där bolånetagare ofta framställs som oansvariga, visar studien på det motsatta. Huvudparten amorterar enligt bankens rekommendationer och är medvetna om eventuella ränteförändringar vilket tyder på en sund belåning. Den hårt reglerade hyresmarknaden begränsar dock alternativen för de som egentligen inte vill ta sig in på ägarmarknaden och kan därmed innebära riskfyllda bostadsköp. Således visar studien på en splittrad inställning avseende bostadsköpet då många hellre hade valt att hyra om det fanns ett större utbud av hyresrätter till skäliga priser. / The financial system is closely linked to the mortgage market, the availability of financing has become greater and increasingly more households choose to own and borrow. It brings advantages and disadvantages when the financial system is extremely sensitive to disturbances in the mortgage market. It is difficult to determine the meaning of an overvalued housing market due to the different definitions given by different actors. The price trend is currently above its long-term trend that has given rise to speculation about a possible housing bubble. However according to recent investigations housing prices appear to have adapted to the new growth conditions in the form of falling interest rates, lower housing and increased household incomes and is thus largely explained by fundamental factors. In order to prevent an unhealthy trend in the credit market, a mortgage limit has been introduced and since its introduction the value ratio for new loans has dropped, beyond that, the proportion of mortgages with LTV above 85 percent has also declined. There is a discussion, however, about whether the leverage is sustainable and whether the safety margins are adequate. In conclusion, the study shows that more and more young households receive help from family in order to establish themselves in the housing market. These young households tend to have illogical expectations about prices on the housing market because they extrapolate backward regarding conclusions about the future, while the majority believes that prices are overvalued. But unlike the general debate where mortgage holders are often portrayed as irresponsible, the study shows the opposite. The majority amortizes according to the bank's recommendations and are aware of any changes in interest rates, indicating a healthy leverage. The highly regulated rental market, however, limits the options for those who don’t really want to enter the ownership market and can thus involve risky home purchases. Thus, the study shows a fragmented approach regarding home purchases when many would rather have chosen to rent if there was a greater range of rental units at reasonable prices.

The inadequate housing allowance, rental allowance, taxable subsidies and housing shortages in developing countries are some of the challenges of the 21st century. Namibia is no exception. The study is aimed at figuring out whether government actions and interventions are meant to address homelessness challenges for low-income households. Furthermore, the research problem is broadened to gain insight on the effects from four countries’ housing policies as covered in the study; namely Namibia, Botswana, Nigeria and South Africa. The literature review undertaken proved that Botswana and South Africa have the best housing allowance schemes for public servants below management cadres, and have already successfully addressed public housing problems in their respective countries. Other findings of the study are; land shortage for housing development, housing affordability problems, escalating prices for building materials, lack of intergovernmental relations systems, unemployment and low incomes. Several recommendations include; to assist the Namibian government to emulate good examples of Botswana and South Africa, especially by providing land free of charge to its citizens (in the case of Botswana), solve financial institutions’ attitude of denying low-in-come earners loans, review housing allowances, rent allowances and subsidies every two years, increase government/member contribution ratios to either 50 percent or 100 percent due to high inflation rates. Stop distorting housing market prices by property developers and come up with a housing pricing policy for Namibia. / Public Administration / M.A. (Public Administration)