Orientador: Rony Farto Pereira / Banca: Maria Lúcia da Cunha Victório de Oliveira / Banca: Renilson José Menegassi / Banca: Alessandra Del Ré / Banca: Marco Antônio Domingues Sant'Anna / Resumo: O trabalho procura investigar os mecanismos de referenciação usados em produções de alunos de Ensino Médio para deixar pistas para que seu leitor faça inferências durante a leitura para produzir sentidos ao que lê. A reconstrução por inferenciação permite estabelecer o elo entre as informações explícitas e as implícitas no co-texto, em um determinado contexto. A inferência é uma estratégia muito importante para que se tome um texto como coeso e coerente, em termos de progressão referencial, colaborando de maneira decisiva para a produção de sentidos.A partir dos pressupostos da Lingüística textual e das teorias sobre leitura, apresenta a relação autor-texto-leitor no processo de produção e recepção do texto. Analisaram-se quantitativa e qualitativamente produções de textos de alunos de Ensino Médio nas quais se verificou o uso de seqüências pronominais, de repetições lexicais, das expressões nominais definidas, anáforas indiretas no texto ou referentes ao contexto, as quais permitem ao leitor fazer inferências e aturar como co-autor na produção dos sentidos. / Abstract: The work investigates the mechanisms of reference used in High School student’s productions in order to leave hints so that the reader com make inferences during the reading to produce meanings of what is being read. The reconstructions through inference permits to stablish the link among the explicit and implicit pieces of information in the co-text, in a determined context. The inference is a very important strategy to make a text cohesive and coherent, in terms of reference progression, contributing in a essencial way in the meaning production. From the textual linguistic and the theories about reading. The work presents the relationship author-text-reader in the process of text production and reception. It was analysed High School student’s productions in quality and amount in which it was verified the use of pronominal sequences, of lexical repetitions, of defined nominal expressions, indirect anaphora in the text or referred to the context, wich allow the reader to make inferences and act as co-author in the production of meanings. / Doutor

En IRMf, les conclusions de paradigmes expérimentaux restent encore sujettes à caution dans la mesure où elles supposent une connaissance a priori du couplage neuro-vasculaire, c’est-à- dire de la fonction de réponse hémodynamique qui modélise le lien entre la stimulation et le signal mesuré. Afin de mieux appréhender les changements neuronaux et vasculaires induits par la réalisation d’une tâche cognitive en IRMf, il apparaît donc indispensable d’étudier de manière approfondie les caractéristiques de la réponse hémodynamique. Cette thèse apporte un nouvel éclairage sur cette étude, en s’appuyant sur une méthode originale d’analyse intra-sujet des données d’IRMf : la Détection-Estimation Conjointe (« Joint Detection-Estimation » en anglais, ou JDE). L’approche JDE modélise de façon non paramétrique et multivariée la réponse hémodynamique, tout en détectant conjointement les aires cérébrales activées en réponse aux stimulations d’un paradigme expérimental. La première contribution de cette thèse a été centrée sur l’analyse approfondie de la variabilité hémodynamique, tant inter-individuelle qu’inter-régionale, au niveau d’un groupe de jeunes adultes sains. Ce travail a permis de valider la méthode JDE au niveau d’une population et de mettre en évidence la variabilité hémodynamique importante apparaissant dans certaines régions cérébrales : lobes pariétal, temporal, occipital, cortex moteur. Cette variabilité est d’autant plus importante que la région est impliquée dans des processus cognitifs plus complexes.Un deuxième axe de recherche a consisté à se focaliser sur l’étude de l’organisation hémodynamique d’une aire cérébrale particulièrement importante chez les êtres humains, la région du langage. Cette fonction étant liée à la capacité d’apprentissage de la lecture, deux groupes d’enfants sains, âgés respectivement de 6 et 9 ans, en cours d’apprentissage ou de consolidation de la lecture, ont été choisis pour mener cette étude. Deux apports méthodologiques importants ont été proposés. Tout d’abord, une extension multi-sessions de l’approche JDE (jusqu’alors limitée au traitement de données mono-session en IRMf) a été mise au point afin d’améliorer la robustesse et la reproductibilité des résultats. Cette extension a permis de mettre en évidence, au sein de la population d’enfants, l’évolution de la réponse hémodynamique avec l’âge, au sein de la région du sillon temporal supérieur. Ensuite, un nouveau cadre a été développé pour contourner l’une des limitations de l’approche JDE « standard », à savoir la parcellisation a priori des données en régions fonctionnellement homogènes. Cette parcellisation est déterminante pour la suite de l’analyse et a un impact sur les résultats hémodynamiques. Afin de s’affranchir d’un tel choix, l’alternative mise au point combine les résultats issus de différentes parcellisations aléatoires des données en utilisant des techniques de «consensus clustering». Enfin, une deuxième extension de l’approche JDE a été mise en place pour estimer la forme de la réponse hémodynamique au niveau d’un groupe de sujets. Ce modèle a pour l’instant été validé sur simulations, et nous prévoyons de l’appliquer sur les données d’enfant pour améliorer l’étude des caractéristiques temporelles de la réponse BOLD dans les réseaux du langage.Ce travail de thèse propose ainsi d’une part des contributions méthodologiques nouvelles pour caractériser la réponse hémodynamique en IRMf, et d’autre part une validation et une application des approches développées sous un éclairage neuroscientifique. / In fMRI, the conclusions of experimental paradigms remain unreliable as far as they supposesome a priori knowledge on the neuro-vascular coupling which is characterized by thehemodynamic response function modeling the link between the stimulus input and the fMRIsignal as output. To improve our understanding of the neuronal and vascular changes inducedby the realization of a cognitive task given in fMRI, it seems thus critical to study thecharacteristics of the hemodynamic response in depth.This thesis gives a new perspective on this topic, supported by an original method for intra-subjectanalysis of fMRI data : the Joint Detection-Estimation (or JDE). The JDE approachmodels the hemodynamic response in a not parametric and multivariate manner, while itjointly detects the cerebral areas which are activated in response to stimulations deliveredalong an experimental paradigm.The first contribution of this thesis is centered on the thorough analysis of the interindividualand inter-regiona hemodynamic variability from a population of young healthyadults. This work has allowed to validate the JDE method at the group level and to highlightthe striking hemodynamic variability in some cerebral regions : parietal, temporal, occipitallobes, motor cortex. This variability is much more important as the region is involved in morecomplex cognitive processes.The second research axis has consisted in focusing on the study of the hemodynamic orga-nizationof a particularly important cerebral area in Humans, the language system. Becausethis function embeds the reading learning ability, groups of healthy children of 6 and 9 yearsold respectively, who were in the process of learning or of strenghting reading, were chosen forthis study. Two important methodological contributions have been proposed. First, a multi-sessionsextension of the JDE approach (until now limited to the processing of mono-sessiondata in fMRI) was worked out in order to improve the robustness and the reproducibility ofthe results. Then, a new framework was developed to overcome the main shortcoming of theJDE approach. The latter indeed relies on a prior parcellation of the data in functionally ho-mogeneousregions, the choice of which is critical for the subsequent inference and impacts thehemodynamic results. In order to avoid this a priori choice, the finalized alternative combinesthe results from various random data fragmentations by using “consensus clustering”.Finally, a second extension of the JDE approach was developed in order to robustly estimatethe shape of the hemodynamic response at the group level. So far, this model was validatedon simulations, and we plan to apply it on children data to improve the study of the BOLDresponse temporal characteristics in the language areas. Thus, this PhD work proposes onone hand new methodological contributions to characterize the hemodynamic response infMRI, and on the other hand a validation and a neuroscientific application of the proposedapproaches.

Dado que o investimento no mercado acionário envolve incerteza, devíamos esperar que seu retorno médio fosse relativamente superior a uma aplicação livre de risco para compensar o investidor pelo risco adicional que ele incorre quando aplica seus recursos em ações. Entretanto, não encontramos tal evidência quando analisamos o comportamento do mercado acionário brasileiro. Isto porque, considerando os retornos realizados médio dos últimos vinte anos, o prêmio histórico foi relativamente baixo. Assim, naturalmente surge à questão se tal estimativa corresponde a um valor razoável para inferirmos o futuro comportamento do mercado acionário. Para responder a esta questão, nossa metodologia constituiu em três etapas. Na primeira, revisamos a literatura em busca de técnicas de estimação do prêmio e selecionamos as abordagens baseado em artigos recentes, citações e disponibilidade de dados. Além disso, também realizamos algumas propostas de estimação. Em seguida, apresentamos os resultados das metodologias selecionadas para os anos recentes e observamos que as estimativas apresentaram certo grau de heterogeneidade. Na segunda etapa, testamos o desempenho dos modelos empíricos estimados usando testes de previsão fora da amostra. Os resultados apontaram que alguns modelos foram superiores ao prêmio histórico. Desta forma, encontramos evidências de que o prêmio histórico representa apenas mais uma fonte de informação para inferir o prêmio esperado e, se tomado sozinho, não constitui um procedimento de inferência razoável. Visto que cada modelo apresenta uma estratégia empírica para inferir o prêmio, todos deveriam representar uma fonte informacional sobre o prêmio futuro. Consequentemente, uma corrente da literatura recente destaca que a estratégia ótima pode ser agregar informações dos modelos individuais. Com este intuito, o último passo da metodologia foi combinar informações dos modelos que apresentaram melhor desempenho em relação ao prêmio histórico e verificar se tal procedimento aumentou a performance do poder preditivo dos modelos. Como resultado, verificamos que tal abordagem melhora e estabiliza a previsão do prêmio. / Given that investment in the stock market involves uncertainty, we should expect that the average return was relatively higher than a risk-free investment in order to compensate investors for the additional risk they incur. However, we find no such evidence when we analyze the Brazilian stock market behavior. This is because, considering the realized average returns of the past twenty years, the historic equity risk premium was relatively low. So, naturally, the question of whether such an estimate corresponds to a reasonable value to infer the future behavior of the stock market arises. To answer this question, our methodology consists of three stages. At first, we review the literature on risk premium estimation techniques and select the different approaches based on recent articles, quotes and availability of data. We also made some estimation proposals. We then proceed and present the results of the methodologies selected for the recent years and find that the estimates presented some degree of heterogeneity. On the second step, we test the performance of our estimates using out-of-sample predictive tests. The results showed that some models performed better than the historical premium. Thus, we find evidence that the historical premium is just another source of information to infer the expected award and, if taken alone, does not constitute a reasonable inference procedure. Since each model presents an empirical strategy to infer the premium, every one of them should represent an information source on the future premium. Consequently, a recent literature points out that the current optimal strategy may be to aggregate information from individual models. To this end, the last step of the methodology was to combine information of the models that performed better against the historical premium and verify that this procedure increased the power of the predictive performance of the models. As a result, we find that this approach improves and stabilizes the premium forecast.

Este trabalho apresenta três principais contribuições: i. a proposta de uma nova lógica de descrição probabilística; ii. um novo algoritmo de inferência em primeira ordem a ser utilizado em terminologias representadas nessa lógica; e iii. aplicações práticas em problemas reais. A lógica aqui proposta, crALC (credal ALC), adiciona inclusões probabilísticas na popular lógica ALC combinando as terminologias com condições de aciclicidade, de Markov, e adotando uma semântica baseada em interpretações. Como os métodos de inferência exata tradicionalmente apresentam problemas de escalabilidade devido à presença de quantificadores (restrições universal e existencial), apresentamos um algoritmo de loopy propagation em primeira-ordem que se comporta bem para terminologias com domínios não triviais. Uma série de testes foi feita com o algoritmo proposto em comparação com algoritmos tradicionais da literatura; os resultados apresentados mostram uma clara vantagem em relação aos outros algoritmos. São apresentadas ainda duas aplicações da lógica e do algoritmo para resolver problemas reais da área de robótica móvel. Embora os problemas tratados sejam relativamente simples, eles constituem a base de muitos outros problemas da área, sendo um passo importante na representação de conhecimento de agentes/robôs autônomos e no raciocínio sobre esse conhecimento. / This work presents two major contributions: i. a new probabilistic description logic; ii. a new algorithm for inference in terminologies expressed in this logic; iii. practical applications in real tasks. The proposed logic, referred to as crALC (credal ALC), adds probabilistic inclusions to the popular logic ALC, combining the usual acyclicity and Markov conditions, and adopting interpretation-based semantics. As exact inference does not seem scalable due to the presence of quantifiers (existential and universal), we present a first-order loopy propagation algorithm that behaves appropriately for non-trivial domain sizes. A series of tests were done comparing the performance of the proposed algorithm against traditional ones; the presented results are favorable to the first-order algorithm. Two applications in the field of mobile robotics are presented, using the new probabilistic logic and the inference algorithm. Though the problems can be considered simple, they constitute the basis for many other tasks in mobile robotics, being a important step in knowledge representation and in reasoning about it.

In this dissertation I consider the problem of external world skepticism and attempts at providing an argument to the best explanation against it. In chapter one I consider several different ways of formulating the crucial skeptical argument, settling on an argument that centers on the question of whether we're justified in believing propositions about the external world. I then consider and reject several options for getting around this issue which I take to be inadequate. I finally conclude that the best option available to us at the moment is to argue that the antiskeptical view is the best explanation of our ordinary experiences In chapter two I argue that, if we hope to ground what counts as defending antiskepticism in common sense, there is an argument against the possibility of ever knowing one has succeeded in defending antiskepticism. After showing that common sense is no place to look in setting a goal for our antiskeptical project, I present the view that what will be crucial to settling on our antiskeptical goal is coming to a successful analysis of the nature of physical objects. I suggest some minimal criteria that must be met by a view in order to be antiskeptical based on our intuitions about core skeptical cases, but acknowledge that a fully successful response to external world skepticism will require the antiskeptic to engage in some much more difficult analysis. In chapter three I consider various views of the nature of explanation and conclude, tentatively, that explanation as it interests the antiskeptic is fundamentally causal. In chapter four I consider and reject some of the core views on which best explanation facts are so fundamental that a project of attempting to vindicate probabilistically the virtues which make explanations epistemically good. In this chapter I show that views which analyze justification in terms of best explanation factors fail. In chapter five I attempt to vindicate the various explanatory virtues probabilistically. In doing so I attempt to express or translate the various explanatory virtues in terms of probabilities in order to show that having those virtues makes a view at least prima facie more probable. In chapters six and seven I explain and evaluate the various arguments to the best explanation against skepticism present in current philosophical literature. I attempt to show that extant arguments fail to appreciate the virtues possessed by classical (and some new) skeptical scenarios. In chapter eight I briefly consider some options that may be open to the antiskeptic moving forward. All routes forward contain considerable obstacles, but there are some fruitful areas of research to pursue.

This thesis presents a novel, non-simulative, probabilistic model for switching activity in sequential circuits, capturing both spatio-temporal correlations at internal nodes and higher order temporal correlations due to feedback. Switching activity, one of the key components in dynamic power dissipation, is dependent on input streams and exhibits spatio-temporal correlation amongst the signals. One can handle dependency modeling of switching activity in a combinational circuit by Bayesian Networks [2] that encapsulates the underlying joint probability distribution function exactly. We present the underlying switching model of a sequential circuit as the time coupled logic induced directed acyclic graph (TC-LiDAG), that can be constructed from the logic structure and prove it to be a dynamic Bayesian Network. Dynamic Bayesian Networks over n time slices are also minimal representation of the dependency model where nodes denote the random variable and edges either denote direct dependency between variables at one time instant or denote dependencies between the random variables at different time instants. Dynamic Bayesian Networks are extremely powerful in modeling higher order temporal as well as spatial correlations; it is an exact model for the underlying conditional independencies. The attractive feature of this graphical representation of the joint probability function is that not only does it make the dependency relationships amongst the nodes explicit but it also serves as a computational mechanism for probabilistic inference. We use stochastic inference engines for dynamic Bayesian Networks which provides any-time estimates and scales well with respect to size We observe that less than a thousand samples usually converge to the correct estimates and that three time slices are sufficient for the ISCAS benchmark circuits. The average errors in switching probability of 0.006, with errors tightly distributed around the mean error values, on ISCAS'89 benchmark circuits involving up to 10000 signals are reported.

Power optimization is a crucial issue at all levels of abstractions in VLSI Design. Power estimation has to be performed repeatedly to explore the design space throughout the design process at all levels. Dynamic Power Dissipation due to Switching Activity has been one of the major concerns in Power Estimation. While many Simulation and Statistical Simulation based methods exist to estimate Switching Activity, these methods are input pattern sensitive, hence would require a large input vector set to accurately estimate Power. Probabilistic estimation of switching activity under Zero-Delay conditions, seriously undermines the accuracy of the estimation process, since it fails to account for the spurious transitions due to difference in input signal arrival times. In this work, we propose a comprehensive probabilistic switching model that characterizes the circuit's underlying switching profile, an essential component for estimating data-dependent dynamic and static power. Probabilistic estimation of Switching under Real Delay conditions has been a traditionally difficult problem, since it involves modeling the higher order temporal, spatio-temporal and spatial dependencies in the circuit. In this work we have proposed a switching model under Real Delay conditions, using Bayesian Networks. This model accurately captures the spurious transitions, due to different signal input arrival times, by explicitly modeling the higher order temporal, spatio-temporal and spatial dependencies. The proposed model, using Bayesian Networks, also serves as a knowledge base, from which information such as cross-talk noise due to simulataneous switching at input nodes can be inferred.

Este trabalho pretende discutir alguns aspectos de um campo de estudo emergente dentro da educação estatística: a inferência informal, que vem se mostrando como alternativa para a disseminação dos conceitos fundamentais dessa matéria. De um outro lado encontram-se os métodos formais, muito difundidos e praticados nas salas. As ideias que são estabelecidas dentro desse campo visam atender às necessidades atuais que fomentam as pesquisas ligadas à educação estatística. De acordo com Zvi e Garfield (2004), os métodos tradicionais enfatizam técnicas algorítmicas e, como consequência, não promovem o entendimento nem as habilidades de relacionar os conceitos básicos, dessa maneira acabam formando alunos que, apesar calcular medidas e de aplicar os métodos estatísticos, não conseguem interpretar os resultados obtidos. Nesse sentido, uma das necessidades diante desse tipo de prática, encarada como um desafio pelo mesmo autor, é a mudança de foco para abordagens que auxiliem os alunos a compreenderem e relacionarem as ideias estatísticas básicas. Espera-se ainda que uma abordagens menos focadas em técnicas possibilitem o desenvolvimento de habilidades que tornam as pessoas capazes de interpretar os dados extraídos de situações reais e relacionar com informações adicionais para que estas sejam aptas à fazer afirmações e concluir sobre os dados estatísticas de forma coerente. / This paper discusses some aspects of an emerging field of study within the statistical education: the informal inference, which is proving to be an alternative to the dissemination of the fundamental concepts of this matter. Another side are formal, and widespread methods practiced in the rooms. The ideas that are established within this field aim to meet current needs that foster research related to statistics education. According cite BenGarfield04, traditional methods emphasize algorithmic techniques and, consequently, do not promote the understanding nor the skills to relate the basic concepts, thus eventually forming students that although calculate measurements and statistical methods applied, can not interpret the results. In this sense, one of the requirements in this kind of practice, seen as a challenge by the same author, is the shift of focus to approaches that help students understand and relate the basic statistical ideas. It is also hoped that a less focused on technical approaches enable the development of skills that make people able to interpret the data extracted from real situations and relate to information so that they are able to make statements and complete statistics on the data so consistent.

<p>Two propositions connected by and have the same truth-value, irrespective of the order of the conjuncts. However, in a sentence like “I put my socks and shoes on” it becomes obvious that the order of the conjuncts affects the meaning of the sentence. This study concerns the contribution of pragmatics to and by implicit enrichment to and then or and thus. It includes three experiments that investigate and-enrichment in adults and children. Nine five-line stories concerning everyday events were used. After each story the participants were to respond “yes” or “no” to a statement which referred to two events that occurred in the story, conjoined with and. In the critical statement, the two events were presented in the inverse order to which they had occurred. The results show no general developmental effect but awareness of the task plays a critical role for and-enrichment production. Ten-year-olds enrich and to the same extent as adults when no efforts are made to mask the intention behind the task. However, when a more spontaneous response is captured by masking the purpose of the task children respond more logically. There are no clear evidence that and-enrichment is affected by the cognitive demands of the task.</p>

Object-oriented programming languages all involve the notions of class and object. We extend the notion of class so that any Boolean combination of classes is also a class. Boolean classes allow greater precision and conciseness in naming the class of objects governed by a particular method. A class can be viewed as a predicate which is either true or false of any given object. Unlike predicates however classes have an inheritance hierarchy which is known at compile time. Boolean classes extend the notion of class, making classes more like predicates, while preserving the compile time computable inheritance hierarchy.