This thesis analyses the influence of monetary policy on the general price level in Zimbabwe during periods of hyperinflation and dollarisation. The first part of the analysis covers the period January 2006 to July 2008 when the country experienced high inflation and ultimately hyperinflation. The second part covers the period 2009 to 2012, when the country adopted the multi-currency system and became fully dollarised. In terms of motivation, the study firstly sought to empirically examine the factors that led to hyperinflation in Zimbabwe, paying particular attention to the influence of monetary policy. Secondly, the thesis sought to determine the major factors that influenced price formation in a dollarised Zimbabwean economy; a completely new macro-economic environment. A significant development in this new macro-economic environment was the loss of monetary policy autonomy of the central bank, which also contributed to the relevance of the study. This thesis makes two contributions. The first contribution is the finding that hyperinflation in Zimbabwe was caused by expansionary monetary policy as a result of the activities of an unrestrained and unaccountable central bank. The second contribution was the empirical finding that in the fully dollarised economy inflation is largely determined by external factors. This implies that the domestic economy has no control over domestic inflation developments and as such, Zimbabwean authorities should formulate appropriate economic policies to respond to the impact of external shocks on domestic price formation when the need arises. The role of monetary policy in Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation episode is assessed using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and the Error Correction Model (ECM) approaches with monthly data from January 2006 to July 2008. The impact of monetary policy on hyperinflation is captured by the coefficient of broad money supply and the interest rate. Results indicate that hyperinflation was caused by expansionary monetary policy, the exchange rate premium and inflation expectations for both the short and long term. Zimbabwe’s hyperinflation episode which peaked during the period 2007 to 2008 brings to the fore the importance of ensuring that the central bank is independent in executing its mandate of influencing the monetary policy process in a manner that ensures price stability. The ARDL and ECM approaches are also used to explore the dynamics of inflation in the dollarised Zimbabwean economy, with monthly data from January 2009 to December 2012. The main drivers of inflation under the multi-currency system were found to be the United States of America dollar/South African rand exchange rate, international oil prices, inflation expectations and the South African inflation rate. The findings contrast with the hyperinflationary era, where empirical studies have cited excessive money supply growth as the major driver of inflation dynamics in Zimbabwe. The results also suggest a higher exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices, consistent with empirical literature which postulates that inflation in dollarised economies is largely explained by movements in the exchange rate of major trading partners and international prices. The policy implication from the analysis is the need for policy makers to aggressively promote policies that ensure increased productivity of the economy. An improvement in productivity would influence the relative prices of tradable and non-tradable goods and ultimately the general price level in the economy. The study also quantified the independence of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) using the Mathew (2006), “new index for institutional quality” and the results showed that the RBZ is not an independent central bank. The central bank is found to have a low index of central bank independence (CBI), against a high level of inflation. While this relationship does not imply causality it can be inferred that the lack of independence of the RBZ could have influenced inflation dynamics in Zimbabwe. Only a subordinated central bank can be compelled to engage in inflationary deficit financing and also fund quasi-fiscal activities. The provisions of the RBZ Act [Chapter 22:15] in their current form make the central bank an appendage of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Development and this has, to a large extent, resulted in conflict between the political goals of government and the central bank’s primary objective of achieving price stability. In the event that Zimbabwe reintroduces its own currency in future, the achievement of the primary goal of price stability by the central bank will only be realised if the apex bank is given more autonomy.

The appropriateness of inflation targeting in South Africa is examined. South Africa has adopted flexible inflation targeting, wherein considerations for other macroeconomic variables are prioritized. There is evidence of growing concern regarding South Africa’s monetary policy framework., emerging primarily from the trade union movement and the communist party. The concerns are borne out of the developmental challenges that are still facing South Africa, ranging from high unemployment, high levels of poverty and inequality, and low economic growth. In attempt to understand these concerns, the following key economic variables GDP, Manufacturing Data, Exchange Rate, and Repo Rate were investigated using both Eviews and Stat tool. To eliminate the impact of the recent global recession, the data that has been analyzed is up to 2008. The research compares two periods, namely; the pre inflation targeting period (1990 – 1999) and post inflation targeting period (2000 – 2008). The study has found that despite unemployment, inequality and economic growth having being sluggish over the years, these factors are not as a result of inflation targeting. Evidence indicates that inflation has been reduced and stabilized since the adoption of inflation targeting. This research argues that this methodology is important for South Africa’s economic development, as evident by increased output. This research concludes that the implementation of inflation targeting is appropriate for South Africa. / Dissertation (MBA)--University of Pretoria, 2012. / Gordon Institute of Business Science (GIBS) / unrestricted

Le fond diffus cosmologique (CMB) permet d'étudier la physique à l'oeuvre dans l'univers primordial.Ses anisotropies ont été mesurées récemment avec une haute précision par le satellite Planck. Ces mesures sont en accord avec les prédictions de l'inflation, la théorie décrivant une période d'expansion rapide et accélérée de l'univers primordial. Pour distinguer les différents modèles d'inflation, il est important de chercher des déviations de la distribution gaussienne des anisotropies du CMB, appelées non-gaussianités.Cette thèse est consacrée à l'étude, à la fois des points de vue observationnels et théoriques, des non-gaussianités du type bispectral (liées aux fonctions de corrélations à trois points), caractérisées par les paramètres d'amplitude fNL.Après une partie introductive sur le modèle standard de la cosmologie et la théorie des perturbations cosmologiques,la deuxième partie de ce manuscrit décrit la méthode de l'estimateur de bispectre binné, utilisée pour extraire de l'information sur les non-gaussianités à partir des mesures du CMB. Pour obtenir des informations sur l'univers primordial, les données doivent être nettoyées de la contamination dûe aux avant-plans galactiques. Nous vérifions les résultats au niveau du bispectre. Des modèles numériques de plusieurs avant-plans galactiques sont déterminés à partir des données de Planck. Ces modèles ont été utilisés dans des analyses des cartes de la température du CMB et du ciel brut, afin d'améliorer la détermination de la quantité de non-gaussianités primordiales.La troisième partie de ce manuscrit porte sur l'étude des non-gaussianités bispectrales produites dans des modèles d'inflation à deux champs avec des termes cinétiques standards. Il est important de mieux comprendre quelles régions de l'espace des modèles d'inflation ont été éliminées par les résultats de Planck.Nous appliquons une nouvelle expression de fNL au cas d'un potentiel somme et nous montrons qu'il est très difficile de satisfaire en même temps aux conditions permettant fNL grand et la contrainte observationnelle sur l'indice spectral ns. Pour le cas de la somme de deux potentiels monomiaux et d'une constante, nous montrons explicitement dans quelles régions de l'espace des paramètres cela est possible et comment construire un tel modèle. Finalement, nous utilisons la nouvelle expression pour fNL pour montrer que dans le cas du potentiel somme, les résultats analytiques restent valides au-delà de l'approximation de roulement lent. / A powerful probe of the physics at play in the early universe is the Cosmic Microwave Background(CMB). Its anisotropies have been measured recently with high precision by the Planck satellite. These measurements are in agreement with the predictions of inflation, a theory describing a period of fast and accelerated expansion in the early universe. To discriminate between the different inflation models, it is important to look for deviations from Gaussianity of the CMB anisotropies (i.e. non-Gaussianity). This thesis is devoted to the study of non-Gaussianity of the bispectral type (related to the three-point correlation functions) parametrized by its amplitude parameters fNL, both from the theoretical and observational points of view.After an introductory part on standard cosmology, the second part of the thesis describes the method of the binned bispectrum estimator, used to extract information about non-Gaussianity from CMB measurements.In order to recover information about the primordial universe, one has to clean observational data from the contamination caused by galactic foregrounds. We verify the results at the bispectral level. Numerical templates for the temperature bispectra of several galactic foregrounds are determined using data from the 2015 Planck release. These templates are then used to perform joint analyses on raw sky and CMB temperature data maps, to improve the determination of the amount of primordial non-Gaussianity. In the third part, the level of bispectral non-Gaussianity produced in two-field inflation models with standard kinetic terms is investigated using the long-wavelength formalism. It is important to better understand what regions of inflation model space have been ruled out by Planck. We apply a newly derived expression for fNL to the case of a sum potential and show that it is very difficult to satisfy simultaneously the conditions for a large fNL and the observational constraints on the spectral index ns. In the case of the sum of two monomial potentials and a constant we explicitly show in which small region of parameter space this is possible, and we show how to construct such a model. Finally, we also use the new expression for fNL to show that for the sum potential,the explicit expressions remain valid even beyond the slow-roll approximation.

Today’s market situation for real estate and property developers in Sweden is very unique. It is characterized by low to negative interest rates and low to no inflation. However, many of the existing economic theories are based on positive interest rates and a positive inflation. This has resulted in uncertainties for investors and market players how to assess this new situation and be able to adequately predict how this will affect the real estate market. The purpose of this thesis has been to investigate how a low interest rate and inflation environment affects real estate, as an investment alternative. The thesis looks closer on the Japanese market since they have had a low interest rate and inflation environment from the middle of 1990’s. The thesis has investigated what kind of relationship that exists between the return but also the prices from real estate and different macroeconomic variables such as the interest rate, the inflation and the GDP growth. The thesis has been performed at Vasakronan, a leading property company in Sweden. Vasakronan management has provided valuable guidance and assisted in making prioritizations of the very extensive data material. Real estate can be considered a good investment alternative and that they still generate a rate of return over time in a low interest rate and inflation environment. Furthermore the findings show that the interest rates and the inflation do not have any direct effect on the real estate returns in a low interest rate and inflation environment. However, we have found that it exist other variables that affect the real estate returns which in turn are affected by the interest rates and the inflation meaning that the returns for real estate are indirectly influenced by the interest rates and inflation. One of the most important variables is the GDP growth, which has an influential impact on the real estate returns. The demand and supply for real estate as well as the expectation concerning the future is also variables that influence the real estate market and returns. As long as the economy is growing as well as the demand is high and future expectations is positive, real estate can still be considered to be a relative secure and good investment. / Dagens situation på fastighetsmarknaden är väldigt unik. Den är präglad av låga och negativa räntor och låg inflation. Många av de existerande ekonomiska teorierna är baserade på positiva räntor och en positiv inflation. Detta har resulterat i osäkerheter på marknaden hur denna situation kan komma att påverka fastighetsmarknaden i framtiden. Syftet med detta arbete är att undersöka hur fastigheter som ett investeringsalternativ uppför sig i en miljö med låga räntor och inflation. I arbetet undersöker vi närmare Japans fastighetsmarknad eftersom de har haft låga räntor och inflation enda sedan mitten av 1990-talet. Vi kommer vidare undersöka vad för relation som existerar mellan både avkastningen på fastigheter och fastighetspriserna gentemot olika makroekonomiska variabler. De makroekonomiska variablerna är räntan, inflationen och ekonomisk tillväxt i form av BNP. Detta arbete har skrivits i sammarbete med Vasakronan, Sveriges största fastighetsbolag där de har assisterat oss I nödvänding vägledning under arbetsprocessen. Beträffande hur fastigheter uppför sig i en miljö med låga räntor och inflation som är observerat idag har vi funnit att de fortfarande genererar en avkastning över tid och kan anses som ett bra investeringsalternativ. Vi har funnit att räntorna och inflationen inte verkar ha samma direkta effekt som kunde förväntas gällande avkastningarna för fastigheter i en miljö med låga räntor och inflation. Däremot har vi funnit att det existerar andra variabler som påverkar fastigheters avkastning, vilka är direkt påverkade av räntorna och inflationen. Det betyder att räntorna och inflationen ändå indirekt påverkar fastigheters avkastningar. En av de viktigaste faktorerna är den ekonomiska tillväxten som har en tydlig påverkan på fastigheters avkastning och priser. Utbud och efterfråga tillsammans med framtida förväntningar är också viktiga variabler som påverkar fastighetsmarknaden och deras avkastningar. Så länge det existerar ekonomisk tillväxt tillsammans med optimistiska förväntningar på framtiden och en hög efterfrågan så kan fastigheter betraktas som en god och ett säkert investeringsalternativ

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Cette thèse s’articule autour du développement d'outils d’analyse des modes B du fond diffus cosmologique (CMB) dans le but d'estimer l’amplitude des ondes gravitationnelles primordiales produites durant la période inflationnaire.Nous nous intéressons plus précisément aux grandes échelles angulaires, pour lesquelles le signal attendu des modes B primordiaux est dominant. Ces échelles étant particulièrement contaminées par des émissions polarisées galactiques, nous avons étudié et développé des méthodes permettant de réduire ces contaminations et de caractériser les résidus. Ces outils peuvent être utilisés pour analyser les données des satellites tels que Planck ou LiteBIRD. Afin de quantifier l’amplitude des modes B, nous avons développé et caractérisé un estimateur de spectre en puissance des anisotropies du CMB. Celui-ci s’exécute dans l'espace des pixels et permet de croiser des cartes mesurées par différent détecteurs. La méthode est optimale, et minimise les fuites de variance des modes E vers les modes B.Nous avons appliqué les méthodes de nettoyage et d’estimation de spectre aux cartes de données et de simulations en polarisation fournies publiquement par Planck. Nos contraintes sur la comportement spectral de la poussière et du rayonnement synchrotron galactique sont en accord avec les analyses précédentes. Enfin, nous avons pu déduire une limite supérieure sur l’amplitude des ondes gravitationnelles primordiales. / This thesis focuses on the development of analysis tools of the primordial B modes of the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB). Our goal is to extract the amplitude of the primordial gravitational waves produced during the inflationary period.Specifically, we are interested in the large angular scales, for which the primary B modes signal is expected to be dominant. Since these scales are particularly contaminated by polarised galactic emissions, we have studied and developed approaches to reduce those contaminations and to characterise their residuals. Those methods are applicable to satellite missions such as Planck or LiteBIRD.In order to estimate the B modes amplitude, we developed and characterised a CMB anisotropies power spectrum estimator. The algorithm is pixels-based and allows to cross-correlate maps measured by different detectors. The method is optimal and minimises the E-to-B variance leakage.We applied the cleaning and spectrum estimation approaches to the polarisation data and simulation maps publicly provided by Planck. The constraints that we deduce are in agreement with past analysis. Ultimately, we derive an upper limit on the primordial gravitational waves amplitude.

Cette thèse s'intéresse aux fondements de la croissance et des déficits budgétaires. Elle se compose de trois essais distincts. Le premier essai examine les déterminants économiques et politiques des déficits budgétaires. Le second essai s'intéresse à la transmission de l'inflation aux revenus et dépenses dans la zone euro. Le troisième essai analyse l'interaction entre les dépenses publiques et la croissance économique lors du développement économique d'un pays. Dans le premier chapitre, je présente une modélisation des biais de comportement du politicien avec un facteur reflétant la probabilité pour le gouvernement de rester au pouvoir. Si un gouvernement est incertain concernant ses perspectives de réélection, il aura tendance à négliger l'avenir davantage qu'il ne l'aurait fait autrement. Sur le plan empirique, ce papier contribue à formaliser la relation entre déficit budgétaire, comportement de l'homme politique et contexte économique. Dans le second chapitre, afin d'étudier la relation entre dépenses publiques/revenus et inflation en France, j'utilise l'analyse de cointegration et de causalité du modèle de Granger. Les résultats indiquent que les dépenses/recettes publiques et l'inflation sont fortement cointégrées et qu'il existe donc une relation d’équilibre à long terme entre ces variables. De plus, nous estimons le déficit budgétaire `a partir de l'inflation et d'autres variables explicatives telles que les élections, la croissance économique et le taux de croissance du chômage. En outre, ce chapitre souligne que les revenus (cotisations sociales, impôts directs nets) sont fortement et positivement corrélés `a l'inflation en Europe Occidentale. En revanche, les dépenses publiques sont faiblement mais positivement corrélées `a l'inflation. Dans le troisième chapitre, nous analysons l'influence de la composition des dépenses publiques sur le taux de croissance au cours du développement économique. Nous constatons une forte corrélation entre le développement du pays et l'utilité des citoyens au fil du temps. Les pays pauvres déboursent fortement en dépenses productives tandis que les pays riches ont une proportion plus élevée de dépenses improductives. Nous illustrons nos résultats avec un panel de données de 147 pays. En utilisant une estimation GMM en système sur panel dynamique, nous constatons que les salaires publics, les paiements d'intérêt, les subventions et les dépenses de consommation finale du gouvernement ne stimulent pas la croissance contrairement aux dépenses d'éducation et de santé. En outre, nous observons que la réaffectation des dépenses d'éducation est associée à une augmentation de la croissance. / This dissertation addresses the interconnections between growth and public finance. It is made of three distinct essays. The first essay investigates the economic and political determinants of budget deficits. The second essay focuses on the transmission of inflation to public finance in the euro zone. The third essay analyses the two-ways interaction between government spending and economic growth over the course of a country's economic development. In the first essay, I consider the modelling of politician behaviour bias which diverges from the typical citizen by a factor reflecting the probability for governments to stay in power. If a government is sure it will stay in power, it will discount the future in an optimal way, otherwise it will tend to discount the future more heavily. On the empirical side, our paper contributes to formalize the impact of politician behaviour and economic context on budget deficit. In the second essay, I analyze the relationship between highly granular public expenditures/revenues growth and inflation in France. I use the cointegration analysis and Granger Causality Model and find that public expenditures/revenues and inflation are cointegrated and thus there exists a long-term equilibrium relation between these variables. We forecast in detail budget deficit in France based on inflation and other explanatory variables such as elections, economic growth and unemployment growth rates. Also, this paper emphasizes that Eurozone governments' total revenues are highly and positively correlated to inflation in particular net social contribution and direct taxes while government expenses are lowly but positively correlated to inflation. In the third essay, I investigate the influence of public expenditures composition on countries growth performance along their economic development. We find citizen utility significantly evolves as the country develops and significantly changes the role and intervention of governments. Poorer countries rely heavily on productive spending while richer countries have a higher proportion of unproductive spending. We illustrate our findings with a data panel of $147$ low-, medium- and high-income countries covering the period $1970-2008$. Using dynamic panel GMM estimators, we show that public wages, interest payments, subsidies and government consumption are not growth-enhancing while spending on education and health positively impact growth. We observe that a reallocation involving an increase in education spending is associated with higher growth.

Fastighetsbranschen har under 2010-talet befunnit sig i en nästintill perfekt ekonomisk miljö med högkonjunktur och låga finansieringskostnader. I skrivande stund, våren 2023, är situationen en helt annan. Med en skenande inflation och en höjning av styrräntan med 350 punkter på drygt ett år är den ekonomiska miljön allt annat än perfekt. Denna nya ekonomiska miljön frambringade ett intresse över hur direktavkastningskravet påverkas av hög inflation, vilket också är syftet med vår uppsats. Uppsatsen baseras på semistrukturerade intervjuer med erfarna personer aktiva i fastighetsbranschen.  Undersökningen visar att inflationens påverkan på direktavkastningskravet är indirekt och att den främsta orsaken till ett ökat direktavkastningskrav går att härleda till en ökad styrränta. Detta är i sin tur en effekt av att försöka dämpa inflationen. Inflationen medför även en stor osäkerhet i branschen, vilket gör att aktörer blir avvaktande och transaktionsvolymen minskar. Vidare observeras ett flockbeteende på marknaden där många aktörer inte vågar investera i rädsla för att genomföra transaktioner till nivåer som är alldeles för låga eller när det inte finns tillräckligt med genomförda transaktioner att jämföra med. Denna osäkerhet avspeglas i en ökad riskpremie, en riskpremie som utgör en komponent av direktavkastningskravet, vilket leder till att direktavkastningskravet stiger.  Olika segment har och spås få olika konsekvenser av inflationen. Den del av handelssegmentet som utgörs av sällanköpshandel kommer att få det svårare. Hyresgäster som bedriver verksamhet inom sällanköpshandeln drabbas i dubbel bemärkelse genom att konsumenternas köpkraft minskas till följd av inflationen samtidigt som deras hyror indexeras upp. Hyresgäster som bedriver verksamhet inom dagligvaruhandeln och lågprissegmenten drabbas inte lika hårt. / The Real Estate sector has been operating in a practically perfect economic environment during the 2010s, characterized by a strong economy and low financing costs. However, as of June 2023, the situation has changed entirely. With soaring inflation and a 350 basis point increase in the policy interest rate over the course of just over a year, the economic environment is far from perfect. This new economic landscape has generated interest in understanding how capitalization rates are affected by high inflation, which is the purpose of our essay. The essay will be based on semi-structured interviews with experienced individuals active in the real estate industry.  Our study revealed that the impact of inflation on capitalization rates is indirect, and the primary relationship between an increase in capitalization rates can be attributed to a higher policy interest rate, which is a measure taken to curb inflation. Inflation also introduces significant uncertainty in the industry, causing market participants to become hesitant, resulting in a decrease in transaction volume. Furthermore, a herding behavior is observed in the market, where many investors are reluctant to invest for fear of conducting transactions at excessively low levels or when there are not enough completed transactions for comparison. This uncertainty is reflected in an increased risk premium, which is a component of the capitalization rate, causing it to rise. Different segments are expected to have different consequences from inflation. The part of the retail segment consisting of non-essential products will face more difficulties. These tenants are affected in a double sense as consumer purchasing power decreases due to inflation as well as their rents being indexed upwards. Tenants operating in the grocery sector and low-price segment are not affected as much.

Västvärlden har de senaste åren upplevt hög och stigande inflation, något som varit ovanligt de senaste decennierna. Ekonomisk tillväxt är av stort intresse för alla länder, och inflationens effekt på tillväxten var välstuderat under 90-talet. Därefter har bidragen varit färre, men är återigen intressant att analysera med bakgrund av rådande inflationsnivåer. Studiens syfte är att undersöka om inflation påverkar real BNP-tillväxt negativt på lång sikt. Det görs genom att med paneldata från OECD undersöka fem länder i en IV-regression mellan 1973-1984 och under en elvaårsperiod med start fem år efter respektive lands införande av ett inflationsmål. Resultatet visar att inflation haft en statistiskt signifikant negativ kausal effekt på den reala BNP-tillväxten i dessa länder och tidsperioder. Det är i linje med stor del av tidigare forskning på området. / The western world has during the last couple of years witnessed high and rising inflation, which has been of rare occurrence during the last decades. Economic growth is of great interest all over the world, and during the nineties the subject of the effects inflation has on growth was well studied. Thereafter the contributions have been fewer. Given the recent levels of inflation this is once again an interesting area of study. The purpose of this paper is to examine if inflation affects real GDP growth negatively in the long run. This is made possible through the usage of panel data, collected from the OECD, where five countries are included in an IV-regression during 1973-1984 as well as the eleven year period occurring five years after the introduction of inflation targeting. The results show that the negative causal effect inflation has had on real GDP growth in these countries and time periods is of statistical significance. That is in line with a major part of the published research on the subject.

This study has analysed the misalignment of the real exchange rates of the eleven original euro members at the introduction of the euro, and their consequences for inflation in the first five and ten years of the monetary union. Using four separate models of real equilibrium exchange rates, the largest overvaluations are found for Portugal and Germany, and the largest undervaluations are found for Ireland and Finland. In accordance with theory, adjustment towards equilibrium through inflation rate differentials seems to have occurred: the effect being clear with regard to two of the models, and ambiguous according to the two remaining. The study sheds light on the appropriateness of the conversion rates at the introduction of the euro in 1999, and the macroeconomic consequences of real exchange rate misalignment.