Thesis (MDevF (Business Management))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007. / ENGLISH ABSTRACT: This study looks at South Africa and Brazil in a comparative sense to determine how infrastructure development and investment since 1970 to 2002 impacted not only on aggregate GDP but also on social indicators such as gross national income (GNI), infant mortality and literacy within these countries. Although Brazil is four times the size of South Africa, the two countries have political and economic situations that are similar. The more recent history of the two countries suggests that infrastructure development and investment have received priority. The research methodology was to review related literature, secondly to statistically measure the impact of infrastructure investment on the factors mentioned using a linear regression model and, thirdly to analyze and discuss the outcomes. The role of government in infrastructure development is argued to be one of limited capital investment and more of a regulatory one with the consequent result of crowding-in private sector investment. Brazil has in recent times followed a route of public-private partnerships with the South African government on the other hand being the principal investor for infrastructure. The magnitude of elasticity of the impact of infrastructure in both South Africa and Brazil was found to be unusually large implying an implausibly high marginal rate of productivity for capital investment. This could be because of the incompleteness of the data obtained. Furthermore, infrastructure investment in Brazil is found to have a larger social impact than in South Africa, except for aggregate GDP. In conclusion, the results of the statistical analysis corroborate the assertion of the various literatures surveyed. The main findings of the analysis in this study do not conclusively suggest that the path followed by Brazil through public-private partnerships has had a far better effect than in the case of South Africa utilizing substantial government investment to promote infrastructure development. Although the study was not geared towards the effect of policies on the impact of infrastructure, especially on the social fabric of developing countries, further research in this area could be undertaken. The impact of individual measures of economic infrastructure such as railways, roads, ports, air travel, telephones and electricity could also be researched to determine their economic impact in South Africa and Brazil. / AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Hierdie studie tref ‘n vergelyking tussen Suid-Afrika en Brasilië om vas te stel hoe die ontwikkeling van infrastruktuur en belegging sedert 1970 tot 2002 nie net op die totale bruto binnelandse produk, maar ook op die sosiale aanwysers soos die bruto nasionale inkomste, die sterftesyfers van babas en die geletterdheidsvlakke van die lande impak. Alhoewel Brasilië vier maal groter as Suid-Afrika is, het die twee lande soortgelyke politieke en ekonomiese situasies. Die meer onlangse geskiedenis van die twee lande toon ook dat infrastruktuur en belegging geprioritiseer is. Die navorsingsmetodologie wat gebruik is, is om eerstens die betrokke literatuur te hersien, tweedens om statisties die impak van infrastruktuurbelegging op die gemelde faktore te meet deur ‘n lineêre regressiemodel te gebruik en derdens om die uitkomste te analiseer en te bespreek. Die rol van die regering in infrastruktuurontwikkeling word beskou as een van beperkte kapitaalbelegging en ‘n meer regulerende een met die gevolglike resultaat van verdringing van privaatsektorbelegging. Brasilië het onlangs die weg van openbaarprivate vennootskappe begin volg terwyl die Suid-Afrikaanse regering andersyds die hoofbelegger in infrastruktuur is. Dit is bevind dat die omvang van die elastisiteit van die impak van die infrastruktuur op beide Suid-Afrika en Brasilië ongewoon groot was, wat impliseer dat daar ‘n ongewoon-hoë marginale produktiwiteitskoers vir kapitaalbelegging was. Dit kan as gevolg van die onvolledigheid van die data wees. Verder het infrastruktuurbelegging in Brasilië ‘n groter sosiale impak as in Suid-Afrika getoon, buiten vir die totale bruto binnelandse produk. Ten slotte bevestig die resultate van die statistiese analise die aannames van die verskeidenheid literatuur wat geraadpleeg is. Die hoofbevindings van die analise in hierdie studie bewys nie dat die weg wat deur Brasilië deur middel van openbaar-private vennootskappe gevolg is ‘n baie beter effek het as wat in Suid-Afrika tot stand gebring is deur die benutting van die omvattende regeringsbelegging om infrastruktuurontwikkeling te bevorder nie. Alhoewel die studie nie gefokus was op die uitwerking van die beleide op die impak van infrastruktuur nie, veral op die sosiale sy van ontwikkelende lande nie, behoort verdere studie op hierdie gebied onderneem te word. Die impak van individuele maatstawwe van ekonomiese infrastruktuur soos spoorweë, paaie, hawens, lugvaart, telefone en elektrisiteit kan ook nagevors word om die ekonomiese impak op Suid-Afrika en Brasilië te bepaal.

The thesis shows how different aspects of sustainable development have been handled or not handled in the third generation infrastructure development in Sweden. The difference between the design of the 3G development – emphazising competition, growth and regional access, based on a strong technological optimism - and the implementation, as the roll out struck the landscape, including the non-handled radiation issue and the legal changes in order to facilitate the roll out, is discussed and analyzed. The roll out formally started in late 2000 as the licence allocation process, the so called beauty contest, was finished. Four operators were to build partly competing systems within three years, each covering 8 860 000 persons, more than 99,98 percent of the populated areas. The Post and Telecommunications Agency can sanction operators not fulfilling licence conditions by a considerable fine. The coverage by the end of the period was between 66 and 74 percent of the promised 8 860 000, with only three remaining operators still participating. Not until 1 December 2006 did the first operator report the required coverage, followed by the two remaining operators by 1 June 2007. The municipal permit handling was blamed for the delay, a reason that “could not have been foreseen”, which helped the operators avoid sanctions from the PTA. The thesis shows that a slow municipal permit process can not explain the lack of coverage in some areas of Sweden. Environmental aspects were not handled at national level but assessed locally in the building permit handling, as well as the regional 12:6 consultations at the County Administrations. This is why the municipal permit process holds many of the keys regarding environmental management and planning. Therefore the permit processes regarding 3G masts has been charted as they developed in time and screened for main issues and conflicts. Public participation can be found in the local context tied to the legal concept of being a concerned party in the permit process, or the 12:6 consultation. In spite of this, the much debated radiation issue is lifted from the participative aspects and legally defined as not relevant. The theoretical basis of the analysis combines spatial planning and sociology of law, applying the sociological concept of norms as entities controlling action on the discussion of two different paradigms of governance derived from planning theory. The thesis project has been a part of a study within the MiSt programme, an interdisciplinary research programme on tools for environmental assessment in strategic decision making funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency. Supervisors: professor Lars Emmelin, School of Planning, Blekinge Institute of Technology Karsten Åström, professor in sociology of law, Lund University / MiSt Report 4

China has gone through a phase of rapid economic development in the last four decades. The country is the world’s biggest economy, measured in GDP purchasing power parity terms, and the largest trading nation in terms of the total sum of exports and imports of merchandise trade. With the launch of the century’s largest infrastructure project – the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) – by Xi Jinping in 2013, China is planning to revive the Ancient Silk Roads in order to gain geopolitical power beyond Asia. Thus far, huge flows of FDI have already made their way from China to countries along the Belt and Road, especially the ones in need of additional infrastructure provision. In this paper, the effect of Chinese outward FDI on economic growth in the BRI economies through infrastructure development is examined, thereby conducting a cross-country analysis with panel data for 34 and 27 countries, respectively, over the period 2005–2017. The direct effect of Chinese FDI on economic growth in BRI countries is ambiguous, supporting previous literature on FDI and economic growth. When adding infrastructure indicators to the regressions and accounting for the endogeneity problem, the effect of Chinese FDI on economic growth changes but remains insignificant, nevertheless. This is most likely due to the reduced sample sizes, on the one hand, and the fact that Chinese construction contracts play a bigger role than actual FDI in the BRI.

The South African government is obliged to render basic services for the people through local government municipalities. These basic services include among others the development of adequate roads, clean water and electricity. The responsibility of the delivery of these services was given to the municipality after the 1994 general elections, with the belief that it is the government that is closer to the people on the ground than the national and provincial governments. The issue of the provision of quality roads in rural areas of South African still remains a critical challenge. The issue addressed in this study is the provision of quality roads provided in Polokwane Municipality. The study focused on the implementation of roads infrastructure development project in rural areas of South Africa and the provision of roads in the rural areas of Polokwane Municipality in Capricorn District, with a special focus on the provision of roads in the rural villages of Thabakgone, Komaneng, Segopje and Ga-Molepo. The study used data collection instruments such as interviews, questionnaires and supporting documents, such as Polokwane Integrated Development Plan and relevant scientific articles to collect data in the four selected villages. The findings of the study revealed that the provision of roads infrastructure in the municipality is of substandard quality, and that the provision of quality roads in the areas is required.

A warmer climate is expected to increase the risks of natural disasters globally. China is one of the hotspots of climate impacts since its infrastructures and industries are often hard hit. Yet little is known about the nature and the extent to which they are affected. This thesis builds novel system-of-systems risk assessment methodologies and data for China, representing infrastructures (energy, transport, waste, water and digital communications) as interdependent networks that support spatially distributed users of infrastructure services. A unique national-scale geo-spatial network database containing 64,834 existing infrastructure assets is assembled. For the first time, flood and drought exposure maps of China's key infrastructures are created, highlighting the locations of key urban areas to understand how its infrastructures and population could be exposed to climate impacts. To deepen the understanding of how climate change will affect the Chinese infrastructure system and hence its economy, economic impact modelling is applied. The research combines a detailed firm-level econometric analysis of 162,830 companies with a macroeconomic input-output model to estimate flood impacts on China's manufacturing sector over the period 2003 - 2010. It is estimated that flooding on average reduces firm output by 3.18% - 3.87% per year and their propagating effects on the Chinese macroeconomic system to be a 1.38% - 1.68% annual loss in total direct and indirect output, which amounts to 17,323 - 21,082 RMB billion. Several infrastructure sectors - electricity, the heat production and supply industry, gas production and supply, the water production and supply industry - are indirectly affected owing to the effects of supply chain disruptions. Taking the above analysis one step further, this thesis explores how climate disaster risks may change over the period 2016 - 2055, using flooding as a case study. A global river routing (CaMa-Flood) model at a spatial resolution of 0.25° x 0.25° is applied and downscaled for China, using the daily runoff of 11 Atmospheric and Oceanic General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). Combining the flood analysis with the infrastructure database, this research demonstrates the changing locations of exposed infrastructures and their dependent customers. We find that by 2055, the number of infrastructure assets exposed to increasing probability of flooding under RCP 4.5 are 41, 268, 115, 53, 739, 1098, 432 for airports, dams, data centres, ports, power plants, rail stations, reservoirs respectively - almost 8% of all assets for each sector. The lengths of line assets exposed to increasing flood hazards are 14,376 km, 32,740 km, 102,877 km and 25,310 km oil pipelines, rail tracks, roads and transmission lines respectively. Under RCP 8.4, the numbers increase to 51, 301, 137, 71, 812, 1066, 424 for point assets. Linear assets increase to 19,938 km, 39,859 km, 122,155 km and 30,861 km. Further, we demonstrate that indirect exposure of customers reliant on those infrastructure assets outside the floodplain could also be high. The average number of customers affected by increasing flood probabilities are 54 million, 114 million and 131 million for airports, power plants and stations respectively. However, within this aggregate increase there is large spatial variation, which has implications for spatial planning of adaptation to flood risk to infrastructure. This is a first substantial study of flood impacts to infrastructure both in terms of direct exposure and their indirect implications. Lastly, to shed some light on the potential vulnerability of China's infrastructure system to climate impacts, this thesis develops a framework that identifies the drivers of infrastructure development in China using evidence from policy documents and a unique geospatial dataset for the years 1900 - 2010. Understanding these drivers will provide a useful foundation for future research in terms of developing infrastructure models that could project the locations of future infrastructure assets and networks in China, thereby quantifying how China's infrastructure exposure and vulnerability will change over time. Overall this research provides an integrated system-of-systems perspective of understanding network and economic vulnerabilities and risks to Chinese energy, transport, water, waste and digital communication infrastructures due to climate change. This is crucial in informing the long-term planning and adaptation in China.

This study explores the role of a foreign ministry within the context of diplomacy and regional cooperation, focusing on the delivery of regional public goods. Diplomacy is described as a state of mind, an approach to the conduct and/or management of international relations that emphasises the timeous and pacific application of intelligence and tact in the making and implementation of foreign policy. As the custodian of diplomacy and diplomatic practice within a national government, the foreign ministry constitutes the primary grouping of expertise on international matters, responsible for the execution of foreign policy but also involved in the process of foreign policy making. Regional cooperation is defined as an issue-focused arrangement, in terms of which participating states may cooperate for a joint development project and facilitation of exchange of information or best practices. Within the context of regional cooperation, regional public goods are defined as any goods, commodities, services, system of rules or policy regimes that are public in nature, that generate shared benefits for the participating states and whose production is a result of collective action by the participating states. Arguably, the provision of regional public goods is considered the most effective way for regional economic communities to reduce poverty and to develop economies of scale. As an assumption, this study contends that, because of the need for regional public goods agenda-setting and policy prioritising, and based on the utility of diplomacy, the Department of International Relations and Cooperation (DIRCO) plays a central and catalytic role within the Southern African Development Community (SADC). This assumption is described and analysed at the regional strategic level, specifically related to the responsibility of SADC foreign ministries in terms of the management of regionalisation in Southern Africa; and at the national operational level, emphasising the role of DIRCO vis-à-vis the delivery of regional public goods. At the regional strategic level, it was found that diplomacy serves as an institution of regional relations; as an instrument of regional foreign policy; as an administrative function in SADC, specifically related to the responsibilities of foreign ministries; as an instrument in the formulation of regional foreign policy; and as a dialogue between regional actors. At the national operational level, it is evident that diplomacy serves as an institution in DIRCO‟s management of regional public goods delivery; as an instrument within DIRCO‟s participation in the execution of policies towards regional public goods delivery; as an administrative function within DIRCO; as an instrument in terms of DIRCO‟s role towards the formulation of policies towards regional public goods delivery; and as a dialogue between DIRCO and key regional actors in terms of regional public goods delivery. Due to the urgency and priority accorded to the delivery of regional public goods, DIRCO must consider the establishment of a core capability specialising in the technical competencies related to specific programmes within the delivery of regional public goods. / Dissertation (MDiplomatic Studies)--University of Pretoria, 2013. / Political Sciences / unrestricted

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(工学) / 甲第18256号 / 工博第3848号 / 新制||工||1590(附属図書館) / 31114 / 京都大学大学院工学研究科都市社会工学専攻 / (主査)教授 小林 潔司, 教授 谷口 栄一, 准教授 松島 格也 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Engineering) / Kyoto University / DFAM

The military recently recognized the importance of taking sociocultural factors into consideration. Therefore, Human Social Culture Behavior (HSCB) modeling has been getting much attention in current and future operational requirements to successfully understand the effects of social and cultural factors on human behavior. There are different kinds of modeling approaches to the data that are being used in this field and so far none of them has been widely accepted. HSCB modeling needs the capability to represent complex, ill-defined, and imprecise concepts, and soft computing modeling can deal with these concepts. There is currently no study on the use of any computational methodology for representing the relationship between adverse events and infrastructure development investments in an active war theater. This study investigates the relationship between adverse events and infrastructure development projects in an active war theater using soft computing techniques including fuzzy inference systems (FIS), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS) that directly benefits from their accuracy in prediction applications. Fourteen developmental and economic improvement project types were selected based on allocated budget values and a number of projects at different time periods, urban and rural population density, and total adverse event numbers at previous month selected as independent variables. A total of four outputs reflecting the adverse events in terms of the number of people killed, wounded, hijacked, and total number of adverse events has been estimated. For each model, the data was grouped for training and testing as follows: years between 2004 and 2009 (for training purpose) and year 2010 (for testing). Ninety-six different models were developed and investigated for Afghanistan iv and the country was divided into seven regions for analysis purposes. Performance of each model was investigated and compared to all other models with the calculated mean absolute error (MAE) values and the prediction accuracy within ±1 error range (difference between actual and predicted value). Furthermore, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the effects of input values on dependent variables and to rank the top ten input parameters in order of importance. According to the the results obtained, it was concluded that the ANNs, FIS, and ANFIS are useful modeling techniques for predicting the number of adverse events based on historical development or economic projects’ data. When the model accuracy was calculated based on the MAE for each of the models, the ANN had better predictive accuracy than FIS and ANFIS models in general as demonstrated by experimental results. The percentages of prediction accuracy with values found within ±1 error range around 90%. The sensitivity analysis results show that the importance of economic development projects varies based on the regions, population density, and occurrence of adverse events in Afghanistan. For the purpose of allocating resources and development of regions, the results can be summarized by examining the relationship between adverse events and infrastructure development in an active war theater; emphasis was on predicting the occurrence of events and assessing the potential impact of regional infrastructure development efforts on reducing number of such events.

PhD. (Department of Business Administration, Faculty of Management Sciences), Vaal University of Technology. / The study aimed to analyse the relationship between internal management systems, innovativeness, and the sustainability of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) within the South African manufacturing sector. Most of the studies in this regard were mainly focusing on large and well-established companies, and the focus would be found to be aligned to only one variable. Studies with reference to SMEs where a linkage amongst the variables is clearly established are limited, thereby providing an impetus to conduct this study. As a result of the changes taking place daily in technology and business operational policies, SMEs typically have to revisit their internal management systems, level of innovativeness, and sustainable measures. Such methods are intended to promote their existence, survival, and growth into the unforeseeable future. A quantitative method based on a positivistic research paradigm was adopted in undertaking the study. The sample consisted of 500 respondents, who were owners, managers, and employees of SMEs in Gauteng Province. The collected data were tested using descriptive and inferential statistics, including Exploratory Factor Analysis, Pearson Correlations and Regression Analysis. Application of factor analysis led to the extraction of two additional SME sustainability factors, namely Employee Training Outcomes and Corporate Compliance to Policy. Of the three internal management systems, only two factors, namely infrastructure development and employee training outcomes, exerted a significant positive influence on innovation. In turn, innovation exerted a significant positive influence on two SME sustainability factors, namely the nature of the product and social sustainability. The study has several implications. Theoretically, the study provides information on how internal management systems relate to innovation. As indicated in the results, only infrastructure development and employee training outcomes exert an influence on innovation and should thus be prioritised when attempting to improve the extent of innovation within SMEs. Likewise, innovation in SMEs results in benefits in terms of the nature of the product and social sustainability only. Practically, the study recommends that there is a need by the South African government through the Small and Medium Enterprise Development Department to review their approach on SMEs so that they can obtain adequate resources to enhance their business success. Additionally, there is a need for both governmental and non-governmental organisations to develop initiatives where SMEs go through the incubation process. During this process, training and business advisory services will be offered for free to equip owner-managers with the relevant business skills. Areas of further research, as well as limitations, were also discussed.

<p>A major challenge of achieving sustainable development is to balance two critical targets with finite resources: to secure food security for a growing population with rising consumption demands, and to prevent further pollution into the environment and losses in ecosystem services. More importantly, the targets of food production and environment protection are not only related to socio-economic and technological development, but also tangled together both ecologically and economically, in particular regarding competition for land – the necessary natural resource for achieving both targets. In view of this, a comprehensive understanding about how to achieve sustainable development requires integrated analyses of the nexus of agricultural production, land use and environmental protection (the “agriculture-land-environment nexus”), interactions between these components,  and their responses to socio-economic development and policies. </p> <p><br></p> <p>This dissertation consists of three essays focusing on the impacts of environmental protection polices and infrastructure on the agriculture-land-environment nexus. The first essay analyzes how pollution reduction influences ecosystem services, with both a theoretical model and also empirical analysis with city-level data from China. Existing literature from the environmental and ecological fields reports that pollution reduction contributes to ecosystem services, but the ecosystem effects via economic channels remain under-addressed. We find when integrated together with an economic system, the reduction of pollution causes losses in the area of natural land that supports ecosystem services, which is further supported by empirical evidence. This finding emphasizes the importance of taking ecosystem effects into account on the design, implementation and evaluation of pollution control policies.</p> <p><br></p> <p>The second essay researches the impact of a large-scale forestry and grassland conservation policy in China, the grain-to-green project (GTGP), on cropland supply and crop production. In this essay, we first develop a theoretical model of the relationships between cropland supply, land value (with market access as proxy) and GTGP, and then empirically test these relationships using gridded data from China. We find GTGP not only directly reduces cropland area, but also restricts the elasticity of cropland supply in response to market access. Furthermore, we apply the GTGP’s impacts on cropland supply elasticity on a grid-solving computable model, in order to both validate the model and elasticity estimates via hindcasting and evaluate the GTGP’s impact on agricultural production via simulation. In the computable model where all grids are connected with crop markets, we find two effects of GTGP on agriculture: the direct effect that restricts cropland use and crop production in regions where it is implemented, and the indirect effect that increases crop production on regions not restricted or less restricted by GTGP. Essay 2 contributes to the literature by not only estimating the pattern of gridded cropland supply in China, but also reveals the indirect effect of GTGP on agriculture, which has seldom been researched. </p> <p><br></p> <p>The third essay researches the impact of transportation infrastructure on Brazilian agriculture, land use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Combining a geographic information system (GIS) based analysis and computable model simulation, we find the expansion of infrastructure mainly contributes to the transportation cost reduction in inland Brazil and causes local cropland expansion and increased GHG emissions from land conversion. However, the shifting of crop production towards inland Brazil reduces the demand for cropland in southeastern and southern Brazil, which offsets the impact on cropland expansion and GHG emissions at the national level. Findings in Essay 3 indicate the importance of capturing both spatial heterogeneity and spatial spillover effects of infrastructure expansion when evaluating agricultural and environmental impacts. </p>