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Diss. (sammanfattning) Stockholm : Karol. inst., 2002. / Härtill 4 uppsatser.

An article from this thesis is available in the repository at http://hdl.handle.net/10019.1/97621 / Background: Community Assault (CA) or vigilantism is rife in the township of Khayelitsha. Anecdotal evidence suggests that victims of CA are worse off than other assault cases. However, scientific data on the rate and severity of CA cases is lacking for South Africa. Aims and Objectives: To contribute to CA prevention and management strategies, by estimating the rate of CA among adults in Khayelitsha and comparing the injury severity and survival probability between cases of CA and other assault (non-CA) cases. Methods: We studied 4 health centres in Khayelitsha during July - December 2012. A consecutive case-series was conducted to capture all CA cases during this period and a retrospective folder review was performed on all cases of CA as well as on a control group of non-CA cases to compare injury severity and estimate survival probability. Results: One hundred and forty-eight adult cases of CA occurred (case rate 1.1/1000 person-years) over the study period. The Injury Severity Scores (ISS) in the CA group were significantly higher than in the non-CA group (P<0.001), with a median (Inter Quartile Range) ISS of 3 in CA cases (2-6) and 1 in non-CA cases (1-2). Comparison between the two groups showed that a GCS<15 (20.1% versus 5.4%), referral to the tertiary hospital (33.8% versus 22.6%), and crush syndrome (25.7% versus 0%) were all more common in CA cases. Survival probabilities were similar in both groups: 99.2% in the CA group versus 99.3% in the non-CA group. Conclusion: The rate of CA among adults in Khayelitsha is high, and the severity of injuries sustained by CA victims is substantially higher than in other assault cases.

To determine accurately the number of serious injuries at EU level and to compare serious injury rates between different countries it is essential to use a common definition. In January 2013, the High Level Group on Road Safety established the definition of serious injuries as patients with an injury level of MAIS3+(Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale). Whatever the method used for estimating the number or serious injuries, at some point it is always necessary to use hospital records. The aim of this paper is to understand the implications for (1) in/exclusion criteria applied to case selection and (2) a methodological approach for converting ICD (International Classification of Diseases/Injuries) to MAIS codes, when estimating the number of road traffic serious injuries from hospital data. A descriptive analysis with hospital data from Spain and the Netherlands was carried out to examine the effect of certain choices concerning in- and exclusion criteria based on codes of the ICD9-CM and ICD10. The main parameters explored were: deaths before and after 30 days, readmissions, and external injury causes. Additionally, an analysis was done to explore the impact of using different conversion tools to derive MAIS3 + using data from Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Netherlands, and Spain. Recommendations are given regarding the in/exclusion criteria and when there is incomplete data to ascertain a road injury, weighting factors could be used to correct data deviations and make more real estimations.

A finite element model was developed for a range of human head-sUAS impacts to provide multiple case scenarios of impact severity at two response regions of interest: global and local. The hypothesis was that for certain impact scenarios, local response injuries of the brain (frontal, parietal, occipital, temporal lobes, and cerebellum) have a higher severity level compared to global response injury, the response at the Center of Gravity (CG) of the head. This study is the first one to predict and quantify the influence of impact parameters such as impact velocity, location, offset, and angle of impact to severity of injury. The findings show that an sUAS has the potential of causing minimal harm under certain impact scenarios, while other scenarios cause fatal injuries. Additionally, results indicate that the human head’s global response as a less viable response region of interest when measuring injury severity for clinical diagnosis. It is hoped that the results from this research can be useful to assist decision making for treatments and may offer different perspectives in sUAS designs or operation environments.

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A novel paper using Canada's real traffic accident data to propose a cost-prediction-based decision-making framework incorporating different ethical foundations for AVs. / Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) hold out the promise of being safer than manually driven cars. However, it is impossible to guarantee the hundred percent avoidance of collisions in a real-life environment with unpredictable objects and events. When accidents become unavoidable, the different reactions of AVs and their outcome will have different consequences. Thus, AVs should incorporate the so-called ‘ethical decision-making algorithm’ when facing unavoidable collisions. This paper is introducing a novel cost-prediction-based decision-making framework incorporating two common ethical foundations human drivers use when facing unavoidable dilemma inducing collisions: Ethical Egoism and Utilitarianism. The cost-prediction algorithm consists of Collision Injury Severity Level Prediction (CISLP) and Cost Evaluation. The CISLP model was trained using both Multinominal Logistic Regression (MLR) and a Decision Tree Classifier (DTC). Both algorithms consider the combination of relationships among traffic collision explanatory features. Four different Cost Evaluation metrics were purposed and compared to suit different application needs. The data set used for training and testing the cost prediction algorithm is the 1999-2017 National Collision Data Base (NCDB) which ensures the realistic and reliability of the algorithm. This paper is a novel paper using Canada's real traffic accident data to propose a cost-prediction-based decision-making framework incorporating different ethical foundations for AVs. / Thesis / Master of Applied Science (MASc)

Introdução: O Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) é considerado padrão ouro na análise de probabilidade de sobrevida do doente traumatizado, apesar de suas limitações. Vários têm sido os esforços na tentativa de torná-lo mais acurado, tendo em vista seu importante papel nos Programas de Melhoria de Qualidade em Trauma. Objetivos: Propor três novos ajustes à equação do TRISS e comparar suas performances com o TRISS e o TRISS-like originais e com esses índices e o NTRISS com coeficientes ajustados à população do estudo; identificar se a técnica de imputação múltipla aumenta a acurácia das equações derivadas de bancos de dados com perdas e comparar o desempenho dos novos modelos quando derivados e aplicados em diferentes grupos de vítimas traumatizadas. Método: Trata-se de um estudo multicêntrico, retrospectivo, com vítimas de trauma internadas no Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (HC FMUSP) e no Centro de Trauma da Universidade da Califórnia San Diego Medical Center (UCSD MC), no período de 1º de janeiro de 2006 a 31 de dezembro de 2010. As informações dos doentes foram agrupadas em Bancos de Dados Derivação e Teste, sendo o primeiro utilizado para derivar as equações e o segundo para validar as equações geradas. Os coeficientes dos modelos foram estabelecidos pela análise de regressão logística. A curva Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) foi utilizada para avaliar a performance dos modelos e o algoritmo de DeLonge et al. para comparar as áreas sob as curvas (AUC). Resultados: A casuística foi composta de 2.416 doentes do HC FMUSP (São Paulo, Brasil) e 8.172 participantes do UCSD MC (San Diego, EUA). Os novos modelos propostos foram o NTRISS-like, que incluiu as variáveis Melhor Resposta Motora (MRM), Pressão Artéria Sistólica (PAS), New Injury Severity Score (NISS) e idade; o TRISS SpO2, com as variáveis Escala de Coma de Glasgow, PAS, saturação periférica de oxigênio (SpO2), Injury Severity Score, além da idade e o NTRISSlike SpO2 (MRM + PAS + SpO2 + NISS + idade). Todas as equações tiveram coeficientes ajustados para trauma contuso e penetrante. A técnica de imputação múltipla aplicada à derivação das equações não melhorou a acurácia dos modelos. Os modelos TRISS original, TRISS, TRISS-like e NTRISS com coeficientes ajustados e as novas propostas não apresentaram diferença estatisticamente significativa em sua performance. As novas equações ajustadas aos dados de São Paulo e as geradas com informações de San Diego apresentaram diferentes AUC ao serem aplicadas nos dois grupos de doentes dessas localidades. A acurácia sempre foi maior quando as equações foram aplicadas na população de San Diego. Conclusões: Os novos modelos apresentaram boa acurácia (cerca de 89,5%) e desempenho similar a outros ajustes do índice TRISS anteriormente publicados; portanto, podem ser utilizados nas avaliações de qualidade da assistência ao traumatizado. Os ajustes dos índices de probabilidade de sobrevida à realidade local de sua aplicação não melhoraram seu desempenho, resultado que reforça a incerteza sobre a necessidade desses ajustes, conforme o local de aplicação do índice. / Introduction: Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) is considered the \"gold standard\" in the analysis of survival probability of trauma patients, despite its limitations. There have been several efforts to make it more accurate because of its important role in Trauma Quality Improvement Programmes. Objectives: To propose three new adjustments to the TRISS equation and compare their performances with the TRISS and TRISS-like originals and these indices and NTRISS with coefficients adjusted to the study population; identify if the multiple imputation technique increases the accuracy of the equations derived from databases with missing; and to compare the performance of the new models when derivatives and applied to different groups of trauma patients. Methods: This is a multicenter, retrospective study with trauma victims admitted to the Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo (HC FMUSP) and the Trauma Center at the University of California San Diego Medical Center (UCSD MC) for the period between January 1st, 2006 and December 31st, 2010. The information of patients were grouped into two different databases: derivation and testing; the first one served to derive the equations and the second was used to validate the equations generated. The model coefficients were established by logistic regression analysis. Receiver Operating Characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the performance of the models and De Long et al. algorithm to compare the areas under the curves (AUC). Results: The casuistic consisted of 2,416 patients from HC FMUSP (São Paulo, Brazil) and 8,172 participants from UCSD MC (San Diego, USA). The new models proposed were NTRISS-like which included the variables Best Motor Response (BMR), Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP), New Injury Severity Score (NISS) and age; TRISS SpO2 that included the variables Glasgow Coma Scale, SBP, saturation of peripheral oxygen (SpO2), Injury Severity Score and age; and NTRISS-like SpO2 (BMR + SBP + SpO2 + NISS + age). All equations had adjusted coefficients for blunt and penetrating trauma. The multiple imputation technique applied in the derivation of the equations did not improve the accuracy of the models. The original TRISS, and TRISS, TRISS-like and NTRISS with adjusted coefficients and the new proposals showed no statistically significant difference in performance. The new equations fitted to the São Paulo data and generated with information from San Diego showed different AUC when applied in the two patient groups in these localities. The accuracy was always higher when the equations were applied to the population of San Diego. Conclusions: The new models demonstrated good accuracy (about 89.5%) and similar performance to other TRISS adjustments previously published, and may be used in assessments of quality of care for traumatized. The survival probability scores adjustments to the local reality of its application did not improve its performance, a result that reinforces the uncertainty about the need for such adjustments, as the application site index.

Esta dissertação buscou avaliar os custos hospitalares parciais decorrentes de internações por traumas causados por ocorrências motociclísticas bem como o perfil epidemiológico destas vítimas. Foi feito um estudo retrospectivo de usuários do Sistema Único de Saúde, de 460 vítimas do trauma com motocicletas, internados na Unidade de Emergência do Hospital das Clínicas da Faculdade de Medicina de Ribeirão Preto da Universidade de São Paulo, divididos de acordo com o mecanismo do trauma e gravidade dos casos. Para efeito de análise, os usuários foram categorizados por faixa etária, estado civil, escolaridade, sexo, local de ocorrência do trauma e dia da semana em que houve este evento. Para consecução deste trabalho foram utilizados o banco de dados do Núcleo Epidemiológico Hospitalar, o sistema de informação interna e dados da seção de custos do mesmo hospital. Como resultado foi identificado que as maiores vítimas de eventos motociclísticos são jovens, solteiros, com baixa escolaridade e do sexo masculino. Também foi identificado que os eventos ocorrem com mais frequência nos finais de semana, além da quarta feira, e que ocorrem próximo do horário da saída do expediente de trabalho e no período da noite. As principais lesões ocorrem nos membros (lesões moderadas e graves) e na cabeça (lesões graves e críticas), sendo múltiplas lesões característica deste tipo de paciente. O custo hospitalar foi principalmente relacionado ao tempo de internação em enfermarias e no CTI e a gravidade do trauma. O valor final do custo avaliado no estudo foi de R$ 5.315.357,15, com média geral de R$11.555,12 por paciente. Para os casos mais graves (ISS > 15) a média de custo foi de R$ 33.259,50 por paciente / This dissertation evaluates the partial hospital costs of hospitalizations for injuries caused by motorcycle accidents and the epidemiological profile of these victims. A retrospective study based on Unified Health System patients was done. 460 motorcycles trauma victims admitted to the Emergency Unit of the Hospital of Ribeirão Preto Medical School Clinical, University of Sao Paulo, were included in the study. Data were collected based on Epidemiological Nucleus database of the Hospital, the internal information system and data from the same hospital costs section, including: mechanism and severity of trauma, epidemiological and socioeconomic data such as age, sex, marital status, education, local, date, and time of occurrences. tThe majority of motorcycle accidents victims were young, single, with low level of education, and male. Accidents occurred more frequently on weekends and Wednesday. Usually from 12 pm to midnight. . The major injuries occurred in the limbs (moderate and severe lesions) and head (severe and critical injuries), being typical of this type of accident several injuries. The hospital costs were mainly related to the wards and ICU length of stay, and the trauma severity. The final value of costs was R$ 5,315,357.15, and in average R$ 11.555,12 per patient. To severe cases (ISS>15) the average cost was R$33,259.50 per patient