O objetivo deste trabalho é propor os modelos Zero Modificados com distribuição na família Série de Potência (ZMPS) para séries temporais com dados de contagem. O modelo ZMPS possui um amplo portfólio de distribuições para dados de contagem em que, com uma função de ligação apropriada, podemos escrever os modelos de regressão usando as distribuições ZMPS de forma semelhante ao que é feito com os modelos lineares generalizados. Em seguida, utilizamos a ideia dos modelos Generalizados Autorregressivos e de Médias Móveis (GARMA) para finalmente propor os modelos Série de Potência Zero-Modificado para Séries Temporais com dados de contagem. / The goal of this work is to propose the Zero-Modified models with Power Series distribution (ZMPS) for time series with counting data. The ZMPS model have a huge portfolio of count data distributions wherein, with an appropriate link function, we can write the regression models using the ZMPS distributions similar to what is done with generalized linear models. Then, we can use the idea of the Generalized Autoregressive and Moving Average (GARMA) models to propose the Zero-Modified Power Series models for Time Series with counting data.

La dégradation de la forêt est un changement de sa structure et de la composition floristique et faunistique, ce qui conduit à une perte de biodiversité, de production de biens et de services et à un accroissement de la vulnérabilité aux aléas climatiques et aux incendies. Elle concerne de vastes espaces en zone tropicale particulièrement dans les régions de fronts pionniers plus ou moins consolidés où la forêt primaire est soumise à l’extraction de bois, aux incendies et à la fragmentation. Pour évaluer son ampleur et son intensité, il est nécessaire de recourir à la télédétection. Mais les méthodologies disponibles restent encore insuffisantes.L’enjeu scientifique est de développer des méthodes adaptées à de grandes surfaces afin d’analyser l’effet de différentes perturbations sur les trajectoires suivies par le couvert forestier. Il s’agit également de distinguer différentes intensités de dégradation suite à l’accumulation de perturbations. C’est un préalable indispensable pour définir et mettre en œuvre des plans de gestion adaptés. Le premier axe de ce travail a pour objectif de cartographier annuellement l’ampleur des perturbations, d’identifier les principaux types de perturbations et de caractériser la trajectoire de restauration de l’activité photosynthétique. Il est réalisé à partir de séries temporelles d’images Landsat traitées au moyen du progiciel CLASlite. L’agrégation des couvertures annuelles résultant des traitements avec CLASlite a également permis de constituer un indicateur de dégradation résultant du cumul de processus de perturbations sur plusieurs années. / The forest degradation is a change of the structure and the composition of flora and fauna, which leads to a loss of biodiversity, of production of goods and services and an increased vulnerability to weather hazards and fires. This process concerns large areas in the tropics, particularly in agricultural frontier where primary forest is subject to timber extraction, fire and fragmentation. Remote sensing is used to assess the magnitude and the extent of forest degradation. However, the methodologies available are still insufficient. The scientific challenge is to develop methods adapted to large areas to analyze the effect of different disturbances on the trajectories followed by the forest cover. It is also to identify different intensities of degradation following disturbances events. This is a prerequisite for defining and implementing appropriate management plans. The first axis of this work aims to map annually the extent of the disturbances, to identify the main types of disturbances and to characterize the restoration trajectory of the photosynthetic activity. This work is based on time series of Landsat images processed using CLASlite software. The aggregation of the annual coverages resulting from treatments with CLASlite also made it possible to constitute an indicator of degradation resulting from the accumulation of disturbance processes over several years. The second axis aims to evaluate the evolution of the forest sensitivity to drought as a function of its degradation and to build a degradation indicator. The approach uses MODIS images and TRMM precipitation data. This work is implemented in the municipality of Paragominas (state of Pará, Brazil).

Dans les systèmes informatiques temps réel, les tâches logicielles sont contraintes par le temps. Pour garantir la sûreté du système critique contrôlé par le système temps réel, il est primordial d'estimer de manière sûre le pire temps d'exécution de chaque tâche. Les performances des processeurs actuels du commerce permettent de réduire en moyenne le temps d'exécution des tâches, mais la complexité des composants d'optimisation de la plateforme rendent difficile l'estimation du pire temps d'exécution. Il existe différentes approches d'estimation du pire temps d'exécution, souvent ségréguées et difficilement généralisables ou au prix de modèles coûteux. Les approches probabilistes basées mesures existantes sont vues comme étant rapides et simples à mettre en œuvre, mais souffrent d'un manque de systématisme et de confiance dans les estimations qu'elles fournissent. Les travaux de cette thèse étudient les conditions d'application de la théorie des valeurs extrêmes à une suite de mesures de temps d'exécution pour l'estimation du pire temps d'exécution probabiliste, et ont été implémentées dans l'outil diagxtrm. Les capacités et les limites de l'outil ont été étudiées grâce à diverses suites de mesures issues de systèmes temps réel différents. Enfin, des méthodes sont proposées pour déterminer les conditions de mesure propices à l'application de la théorie des valeurs extrêmes et donner davantage de confiance dans les estimations. / Software tasks are time constrained in real time computing systems. To ensure the safety of the critical systems that embeds the real time system, it is of paramount importance to safely estimate the worst-case execution time of each task. Modern commercial processors optimisation components enable to reduce in average the task execution time at the cost of a hard to determine task worst-case execution time. Many approaches for executing a task worst-case execution time exist but are usually segregated and hardly scalable, or by building very complex models. Measurement-based probabilistic timing analysis approaches are said to be easy and fast, but they suffer from a lack of systematism and confidence in their estimates. This thesis studies the applicability of the extreme value theory to a sequence of execution time measurements for the estimation of the probabilistic worst-case execution time, leading to the development of the diagxtrm tool. Thanks to a large panel of sequences of measurements from different real time systems, capabilities and limits of the tool are enlightened. Finally, a couple of methods are provided for determining measurements conditions that foster the application of the theory and raise more confidence in the estimates.

Orientador: Jose Sanches Mantovani / Resumo: Neste trabalho propõe-se um método para a localização de faltas que, em conjunto com a lógica de um relé diferencial numérico, deve ser usado para proteção de linhas de transmissão com compensação série controlada por tiristores (TCSC). Este método visa solucionar o problema de localização de faltas melhorando a precisão dos algoritmos que utilizam medições de sinais de tensão e corrente numa terminação da linha de transmissão. O cálculo da distância entre a terminação da linha de transmissão e o ponto de incidência da falta é realizado utilizando dois procedimentos: um para faltas produzida no trecho entre a terminação local da linha de transmissão e o TCSC; e o outro para faltas no trecho entre o TCSC e a terminação remota. A detecção do trecho de incidência da falta é obtido usando as medições de escorregamento angular dos sinais de corrente em ambos os extremos da linha de transmissão e a medição da resistência de falta no extremo local, que é variável durante o intervalo de início até um ciclo depois da ocorrência da falta. A aplicação da lógica difusa na comparação destas medições permite detectar com precisão o trecho com falta. O método proposto foi testado usando um sistema teste da literatura onde múltiplos casos de faltas em diferentes pontos da linha de transmissão foram simulados. Os resultados mostram a capacidade do algoritmo em localizar precisamente a posição de ocorrência da falta. / Abstract: This paper proposes a methodology for locating faults in transmission lines with thyristor-controlled series compensation (TCSC) that are protected by numerical differential relays. The proposed methodology aims to overcome problems of fault location improving the accuracy of algorithms that use voltage and current measurement signals from a transmission line termination. The calculation of the distance between the transmission line termination and the fault incidence point employs two procedures: one for faults in the transmission line section limited by the local termination and TCSC; and other for faults in the section limited by the TCSC and remote termination. The detection of the fault incidence section is achieved using measurements of angular deviation for both transmission line terminations and the measurement of fault resistance in the local termination, which varies during the interval from the beginning to one cycle after the fault occurrence. The use of fuzzy logic for comparing these measurements permits the accurate detection of the fault incidence section. The proposed method is tested using a test system from literature system where multiple fault cases in different positions of the transmission line are simulated. The results show the algorithm capability to locate accurately the position of fault occurrence. / Mestre

A partir de la fin du XIXe siècle, et notamment à travers les travaux de Richard Von Krafft-Ebing, de nouvelles représentations des perversions sexuelles humaines se mettent en place. La prise en compte de ces dynamiques dans l’homicide modifie les modes de classification des scènes de crime. Au XXe siècle, ces changements historiques conduisent à l’étude d’un phénomène rare et singulier : le meurtre sexuel sériel. Durant les années 1980, le F.B.I acquiert le monopole des savoirs et pratiques concernant la problématique des « serial killers ». De nos jours, ce monopole est remis en cause. Les profileurs du Bureau d’Investigation seraient les représentants d’une pratique pseudo-scientifique. Le serial killer serait avant tout une construction sociale initiée par la politique conservatrice des années Reagan. Selon certains psychiatres-psychanalystes, le F.B.I, en affirmant la place centrale des fantasmes sexuels dans la dynamique des crimes, aurait donné une image trompeuse du meurtre en série. A l’opposé, la présente étude entend démontrer que le principal enjeu n’est peut-être pas de déconstruire les discours du F.B.I, mais plutôt de confronter ces derniers à l’actualité des recherches scientifiques. Le profilage désignerait plutôt une méthode d’enquête dont les éléments de base sont susceptibles d’être corrigés et complétés. Sous cet angle, les modèles théoriques concurrents, notamment ceux défendus par la psychanalyse française, semblent également souffrir d’un certain nombre de difficultés. Certes, l’intensité des fantasmes sadiques ne peut pas être la seule dimension des actes criminels. Mais les fantasmes interagissent probablement avec les désirs et croyances des meurtriers. Si l’homicide sexuel sériel s’apparente, comme la plupart des commentateurs s’accordent à le dire, à une succession d’actes ritualisés, une approche anthropologique du phénomène pourrait avoir une certaine légitimité. Sous cet angle, des concepts tels que la psychopathie, la pulsion de mort ou l’omnipotence narcissique dissimulent peut-être l’existence d’un mécanisme victimaire à travers lequel les meurtriers engendrent leur propre religion ou mythologie. / From the late Nineteenth Century, in particular through Richard von Krafft-Ebing’s studies, new concepts have shaped the representations of sexual perversion. The study of the sexual dynamics in homicide cases changes the common methods of crime scene classification. In the Twentieth Century, these historical approaches lead to the study of a rare and particular phenomenon: serial sexual homicide. During the 1980s, the F.B.I dominates the field of practices and knowledge concerning the serial murder issue. Today, that domination is challenged. The F.B.I’s profiling methods are qualified as pseudo-scientific practice. Serial murder is nowadays more perceived as a simple social construction initiated by the Conservative politics of the Reagan years. According to some psychiatrists, the motivational model of the F.B.I has given a misleading picture of serial murder. The aim of the present work is to show that the main issue may not be to deconstruct the F.B.I’s studies, but to compare these first studies with current scientific research. Criminal profiling might be a method whose basic elements are likely to be corrected and completed. In this perspective, competing theoretical models, especially those held by psychoanalysis, also raise a number of difficulties. Of course, the intensity of sadistic fantasies can’t be the only dimension of criminal behavior. But fantasies probably interact with the desires and beliefs of the murderers. If serial sexual homicide appears to be, as most commentators agree, as a series of ritualistic acts, an anthropological approach may be legitimate. From this point of view, concepts such as “psychopathy”, “death drive” or “narcissism” do probably conceal the existence of a scapegoat mechanism by which killers are creating their own religion or mythology.

Dans cette thèse nous présentons une approche générale et robuste pour la décomposition des jeux décrits en Game Description Language (GDL). Dans le domaine du General Game Playing (GGP), les joueurs peuvent significativement diminuer le coût de l'exploration d'un jeu s'ils disposent d'une version décomposée de celui-ci. Les travaux existants sur la décomposition des jeux s'appuient sur la structure syntaxique des règles, sur des habitudes d'écriture du GDL ou sur le coûteux calcul de la forme normale disjonctive des règles. Nous proposons une méthode plus générale pour décomposer les jeux solitaires ou multijoueurs. Dans un premier temps nous envisageons une approche fondée sur l'analyse logique des règles. Celle-ci nécessite l'utilisation d'heuristiques, qui en limitent la robustesse, et le coûteux calcul de la forme normale disjonctive des règles. Une seconde approche plus efficace est fondée sur la collecte d'informations durant des simulations (playouts). Cette dernière permet la détection des liens de causalité entre les actions et les fluents d'un jeu. Elle est capable de traiter les différents types de jeux composés et de prendre en charge certains cas difficiles comme les jeux à actions composées et les jeux en série. Nous avons testé notre approche sur un panel de 597 jeux GGP. Pour 70% des jeux, la décomposition nécessite moins d'une minute en faisant 5k playouts. Nous montrons de 87% d'entre eux peuvent être correctement décomposés après seulement 1k playouts. Nous ébauchons également une approche originale pour jouer avec ces jeux décomposés. Les tests préliminaires sur quelques jeux solitaires sont prometteurs. / This PhD thesis presents a robust and general approach for the decomposition of games described in Game Description Language (GDL). In the General Game Playing framework (GGP), players can drastically decrease game search cost if they hold a decomposed version of the game. Previous works on decomposition rely on syntactical structures and writing habits of the GDL, or on the disjunctive normal form of the rules, which is very costly to compute. We offer an approach to decompose single or multi-player games. First, we consider an approach based on logical rule analysis. This requires the use of heuristics, which limit its robustness, and the costly calculation of the disjunctive normal form of the rules. A second more efficient approach is based on information gathering during simulations of the game (playouts). The latter allows the detection of causal links between actions. It can handle the different classes of compound games and can process some difficult cases like synchrounous parallel games with compound moves and serial games. We tested our program on 597 games. Given 5k playouts, 70% of the games are decomposed in less than one minute. We demonstrate that for 87% of the games, 1k playouts are sufficient to obtain a correct decomposition. We also sketch an original approach to play with these decomposed games. Preliminary tests on some one-player games are promising. Another contribution of this thesis is the evaluation of the MPPA architecture for the parallelization of a GGP player (LeJoueur of Jean-Noël Vittaut).

L'estimation des forces musculaires nécessite le développement d'un modèle biomécanique. Une des étapes essentielle de ce type d'approche est la modélisation de l'interaction au sein du complexe muscle-tendon entre trois composants, les fibres musculaires, l'aponévrose et le tendon par un modèle de type Hill. L'objectif de ce travail doctoral était d'identifier les paramètres dans le modèle de type Hill qui jouent un rôle important dans l'estimation des forces musculaires et de proposer une méthode pour les définir. L’échographie a été utilisée pour estimer la relation force-déformation in vivo du tendon et de l'aponévrose, et le comportement in vivo des fibres musculaires au cours de la contraction pour chaque sujet et comme un moyen de quantifier la précision des modèles en mesurant le comportement in vivo des fibres musculaires et les comparer aux sorties du modèle. L'utilisation d'une définition de l'Élément Élastique en série spécifique au sujet dans les modèles biomécaniques joue un rôle important pour des activités où les forces musculaires sont importantes. Lors de tâches isométriques maximales, la relation force-déformation du tendon spécifique au sujet combiné à des contraintes sur la géométrie initiale conduit à des estimations de forces musculaires plus faibles et un comportement différent des fibres. En ce qui concerne des activités comme le hopping et la course, l’utilisation d’une relation force-déformation du complexe tendon-aponévrose spécifique au sujet permet d’estimer des forces musculaires plus grandes et entraîne un découplage du comportement des fibres musculaires plus important par rapport au complexe muscle-tendon. Pour des activités de marche, la définition de l’élément en série dans le modèle de type-Hill n'influence pas les forces musculaires. L'échographie apparaît comme un outil intéressant pour personnaliser les modèles et pourrait être appliqué sur des patients ayant un trouble neuromusculosquelettique. / The estimation of forces produced by the muscle-tendon complex around a joint needs the development of a neuromusculoskeletal model. One of essential step of this approach is the modeling by a Hill-type muscle model of the interaction within the muscle-tendon complex between three components: the muscle fiber, the aponeurosis, and the tendon. The objective of this work was to identify the parameters used as input into Hill-type muscle model that play an important role in muscle force estimation and to propose a method to define them. The ultrasonography has been used to estimate in vivo tendon and aponeurosis force-strain relationships, and the in vivo behavior of muscle fiber during the contraction for each subject. In addition, a method was proposed to quantify the model accuracy by estimating the in vivo behavior of muscle fiber and compare it with model outputs. The use of subject-specific definition of Series Elastic Element into the EMG-driven model plays an important role for activity at high level of muscle forces. During maximal isometric contraction, the subject-specific tendon force-strain relationship combined with constraint on initial muscle geometry (i.e., fiber length and muscle thickness) leads to lower estimated muscle forces and to a different behavior for the muscle fiber. Concerning highly dynamic tasks such as running and \textit{hopping}, the use of subject specific force-strain relationship for the tendon-aponeurosis complex allows to estimate higher muscle forces and leads to a heavier decoupling behavior between muscle fiber and muscle-tendon complex.The estimation of forces produced by the muscle-tendon complex needs the development of a neuromusculoskeletal model. One of essential step of this approach is the modeling by a Hill-type muscle model of the interaction within the muscle-tendon complex between three components: the muscle fiber, the aponeurosis, and the tendon. The objective of this work was to identify the parameters used as input into Hill-type muscle model that play an important role in muscle force estimation and to propose a method to define them. The ultrasonography has been used to estimate in vivo tendon and aponeurosis force-strain relationships, and the in vivo behavior of muscle fiber during the contraction for each subject. In addition, a method was proposed to quantify the model accuracy by estimating the in vivo behavior of muscle fiber and compare it with model outputs. The use of subject-specific definition of Series Elastic Element into the EMG-driven model plays an important role for activity at high level of muscle forces. During maximal isometric contraction, the subject-specific tendon force-strain relationship combined with constraint on initial muscle geometry (fiber length and muscle thickness) leads to lower estimated muscle forces and to a different behavior for the muscle fiber. Concerning highly dynamic tasks such as running and hopping, the use of subject specific force-strain relationship for the tendon-aponeurosis complex allows to estimate higher muscle forces and leads to a heavier decoupling behavior between muscle fiber and muscle-tendon complex. Concerning dynamic tasks with low force level such as walking, the estimation of muscle force was not influenced by the Series Elastic Element definition. The ultrasonography appears as a useful tool to personalize neuromusculoskeletal models and could be used for patient with neuromusculoskeletal disorders showing an alteration of tendon mechanical properties allowing to quantify the effect of rehabilitation program.

No presente trabalho, estudamos alguns sistemas de partículas interagentes que podem ser vistos como modelos simples de fluxo de tráfego, a saber: O Processo de Hammersley-Aldous-Diaconis e o Processo de Exclusão. Exploramos suas representações como modelos de crescimento no plano. Ênfase é dada aos casos em que há mais de um tipo de partícula, aos processos multiclasses e às suas relações com modelos de filas. Analogia entre os modelos é usada para provar os resultados. Por fim, damos uma nova prova para o cálculo da variância assintótica reescalonada do fluxo de partículas de segunda classe no processo de Hammersley multiclasse em equilíbrio. / In the present work we study the following interacting particle systems which can be seen as simple models of traffic flow: The Hammersley-Aldous-Diaconis Process and the Exclusion Process. We explore the related growth models in the plane. Focus is given to cases where there are more than one kind of particles, to the multitype processes and to their relations with queue models. Analogy between the models is used to prove the results. At last, we give a new proof for the calculation of the asimptotic flux of second class particles in the Multiclass Hammersley process in equilibrium.

Modelagem e controle de execução são duas abordagens do gerenciamento de processos de negócio que, embora complementares, têm se desenvolvido independentemente. Por um lado, a modelagem é normalmente conduzida por especialistas de negócio e explora aspectos semânticos do processo. Por outro lado, o controle de execução estuda mecanismos consistentes e eficientes de implementação. Este trabalho apresenta um método algorítmico que relaciona modelagem e controle de execução, por meio da geração de expressões algébricas a partir de digrafos acíclicos. Por hipótese, assumimos que modelos de processos de negócio são formados por estruturas baseadas em grafos, e mecanismos de controle de execução são baseados na interpretação de expressões de álgebra de processos. Para a geração de expressões algébricas, esta tese apresenta as propriedades topológicas de digrafos série-paralelo e define um sistema de transformação baseado em redução de digrafos. Além disso, um algoritmo de identificação de digrafos série-paralelo e geração de expressões algébricas é apresentado. O texto também discute o tratamento de digrafos que não são série-paralelo e apresenta, para alguns desses casos, soluções baseadas em mudanças topológicas. Finalmente, o algoritmo é ilustrado com o estudo de caso de uma aplicação real. / Modeling and execution control are complementary approaches of business process management that have been developed independently. On one hand, modeling is usually performed by business specialists and explores semantical aspects of the business process. On other hand, execution control studies consistent and efficient mechanisms for implementation. This work presents an algorithmic method which joins modeling and execution control through algebraic expression generation from acyclic digraphs. By hypothesis, we assume that business process models are defined by graph structures, and execution control mechanisms are based on interpretation of process algebra expressions. For algebraic expression generation, this thesis presents the topological properties of series-parallel digraphs and defines a transformation system based on digraph reduction. Therefore, we present an algorithm for identification of series-parallel digraphs and generation of algebraic expressions. This work also discusses the treatment of non-series-parallel digraphs and presents solutions based on topological changing for some cases. Finally, the algorithm is illustrated with a case study based on a real system.

Esta tese tem como objeto de análise o personagem Franz Biberkopf em relação com seu entorno: a cidade de Berlim. Biberkopf é o protagonista do romance Berlin Alexanderplatz (1929), de Alfred Döblin, e da adaptação homônima para a televisão alemã, escrita e dirigida por Rainer Werner Fassbinder e que foi ao ar na Alemanha pela primeira vez em 1980. Ambas as obras constituem o corpus desta pesquisa. O principal objetivo é analisar a inadequação desse personagem ao seu ambiente histórico-social. Biberkopf é um ex-presidiário que, no enredo dessas obras, tenta reencontrar seu espaço na cidade de Berlim entre os anos de 1928 e 1929 após ter cumprido quatro anos de detenção. Ele vive na cidade como um sujeito desajustado, e sua inadequação à sociedade berlinense é investigada aqui como o fenômeno da Entfremdung (alienação), com base, principalmente, na fenomenologia do Fremd, de Bernhard Waldenfels, e a crítica da alienação, de Rahel Jaeggi. A base teórica deste trabalho, portanto, é interdisciplinar, abrangendo as matrizes da literatura (teoria literária), do cinema/TV (teoria do cinema) e da filosofia. / This thesis aims at analyzing the character Franz Biberkopf regarding his surroundings: the city of Berlin. Biberkopf is the protagonist of the novel Berlin Alexanderplatz (1929), by Alfred Döblin, and the same name adaptation for the German television, written and directed by Rainer Werner Fassbinder, and which was aired in Germany for the first time in 1980. Both works are the corpus of this research. The main focus is to analyze the characters inadequacy in his social-historical environment. Biberkopf is an ex-convict who, in the plot of these works, tries to regain his space in Berlin between the years of 1928 and 1929, after four years of detention. He lives as a misfit person in the city, and his inadequacy to Berlin society 6 is investigated here as the Entfremdung (alienation) phenomenon, based mainly on phenomenology of the alien, by Bernhard Waldenfels, and on critique of alienation, by Rahel Jaeggi. Therefore, the theoretical basis of this work is interdisciplinary, covering the fields of literature (literary theory), cinema/TV (cinema theory) and philosophy.