Dauguma šiuolaikinių finansų valdymo ir investicijų mokslinių darbų akcentuoja finansinės rizikos valdymo svarbą finansinių institucijų veiklai. Augančioje finansų rinkoje aktyviais dalyviais tampa įmonės, kurių ilgalaikei sėkmei įtakos turi finansinių lėšų valdymas. Magistro darbe išanalizuoti ir susisteminti įvairių Lietuvos ir užsienio autorių teoriniai ir praktiniai iždo rizikų valdymo aspektai, sukeliantys riziką veiksniai, rizikos rūšys, iždo rizikų įvertinimo ir valdymo metodai. Parodyta, kad pagrindinis rizikos valdymo tikslas nebūtinai yra jos išvengti, o suprasti kritinius rizikos veiksnius ir profesionaliai juos valdyti. Atlikus analizę AB „Mažeikių nafta“ nustatytos šios iždo rizikos: rinkos (valiutų kurso, palūkanų normos, biržinių prekių kainos kitimo), likvidumo, kredito, operacinė. Panaudojus rizikos vertės VaR@95% metodo skaičiavimus, įvertintas iždo rizikų poveikis bendrovės finansinių išteklių formavimui. Patvirtinta autorės suformuluota mokslinio tyrimo hipotezė, kad iždo rizikų strateginis valdymas įmonėje stabilizuoja įmonės pinigų srautus, sumažina įmonės nuostolius dėl finansų rinkos neigiamų pokyčių, pagerina pelningumo prognozavimą. / Most of today’s finance management and investment scientific papers emphasize the importance of finance risk management for the financial institution activities. The companies the long-term success of which comes from the funds management become the active participants in the growing financial market. The Master’s Thesis analyses and systemizes the theoretical and practical aspects of treasury risk management, factors causing risk, types of risks, methods of treasury risk evaluation and management as described by various Lithuanian and foreign authors. It identifies that the main goal of risk management is not necessarily to prevent the risk but to understand the critical risk factors and manage them in professional way. After the analysis has been made the following treasury risks were identified for AB Mažeikių Nafta: market (currency rate exchange, interest rate, commodity price fluctuation), liquidity, credit, operations. Using risk value VaR@95% method calculations the treasury risk impact to the formation of the company financial resources was evaluated. The scientific research hypothesis of the author stating that treasury risk strategy management in the Company stabilizes the Company’s cash flows, reduces loses resulted from negative changes in the finance market, improves the profitability forecasting was proved to be correct.

Compte-tenu du degré de complexité des interconnexions au sein du système financier mondial, mis en avant pendant la crise financière 2007-2009, l'adoption des modèles de réseaux, comme paradigme d'analyse et d'amélioration de la robustesse du système, paraît particulièrement pertinent, sinon nécessaire. Les institutions financières sont vues comme des nœuds d'un réseau où les transactions interbancaires constituent les liens au travers desquels la propagation des chocs se matérialise. En outre, la crise a également mis en évidence le rôle d'un rationnement de la liquidité comme canal majeur de transmission des chocs. Cette thèse examine les interactions entre les tensions sur le marché monétaire, la contagion interbancaire et la structure du réseau, avec une application au marché interbancaire européen et au système de paiement. La contribution de cette étude à la littérature sur les réseaux financiers s'articule autour de trois axes. Le premier est un modèle intégrant trois canaux de propagation des chocs, à l'œuvre durant la crise 2007-2009, à savoir les expositions à un facteur de risque commun, aux risques de contrepartie et, enfin, au risque de liquidité. Le deuxième axe est une application de ce modèle étudiant les expositions interbancaires dans le système financier européen entre 2008 et 2012, et ce, au niveau individuel des agents, i.e. de banque à banque; constituant ainsi, et à notre connaissance, l'unique contribution académique dans ce domaine. Cette étude souligne notamment le rôle de la structure du réseau dans la propagation des chocs et reproduit la fragmentation du marché européen observée en 2011-2012. Enfin, la troisième contribution porte sur la propension des banques à retarder leurs transactions sur la base des données du système de paiement TARGET2. Cette étude souligne une divergence des comportements des banques au niveau de leur gestion de la liquidité intra-journalière. En effet, deux types de comportements se distinguent à cet égard : le premier consiste à fixer un niveau de liquidité initiale suffisant pour répondre aux besoins de la journée et un second qui a tendance à gérer cette liquidité en flux tendus. Les banques adoptant ce deuxième type de comportement sont à l'origine de la majorité des retards de paiements constatés au niveau du système financier. L'ampleur des retards de paiement est par ailleurs fortement corrélée au niveau des tensions sur le marché, constituant de ce fait un indicateur avancé d'une éventuelle crise à venir.Le résumé substantiel n'a pas été fourni par l'auteur / Given the extent and importance of financial interconnectedness in recent years that were particularly underlined by the 2007-2009 financial crisis, the adoption of the network paradigm to analyze and improve robustness of a financial system appears to be fully relevant. Financial institutions are viewed as nodes of a network and their short- or long-term loans extended to each other as links or exposures through which a shock may propagate. Moreover, the same crisis accentuated the role of funding shortage as a channel of shock transmission. This dissertation focuses on the interplay of liquidity stress, interbank contagion and a network structure with application to the European interbank market and payment system. The contribution of this research to the literature on financial networks is threefold. The first develops a model that allows analyzing three contagion channels that happened to be at play during the financial crisis: exposures to a common risk factor; exposures to credit and counterparty risk in the interbank market; exposures to short-term liquidity risk. The second contribution is the unique analysis of cross-border contagion in the European banking system from 2008 to 2012 at the bank level using the developed model. Overall, the study finds the importance of the network structure for the extent of contagion propagation and captures the fragmentation of the market observed in 2011-2012. The third contribution consists of analysis of payment delays in the European payment system TARGET2. More specifically, this chapter provides evidence that banks differ in the way they manage their daily liquidity and can be split into two groups in this regard: those which put enough initial liquidity into the system, and those which economize on liquidity and rely on incoming payments to make outgoing transactions. The second group is responsible for the majority of the delayed payments, particularly during the period of low liquidity in the market, which constitutes an early warning indicator of stress.

Submitted by Vinícius Bisogni (vibisogni@uol.com.br) on 2014-08-26T22:48:46Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Vinicius de Araujo Bisogni.pdf: 2688252 bytes, checksum: 608dee9763c8c1a015d3b54b3692c5b0 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by JOANA MARTORINI (joana.martorini@fgv.br) on 2014-08-27T11:45:32Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Vinicius de Araujo Bisogni.pdf: 2688252 bytes, checksum: 608dee9763c8c1a015d3b54b3692c5b0 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2014-08-27T12:01:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertacao_Vinicius de Araujo Bisogni.pdf: 2688252 bytes, checksum: 608dee9763c8c1a015d3b54b3692c5b0 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-07-30 / This paper aims to compare different methods of forecasting cash needs in overnight, to ensure that the liquidity of a particular financial product - in this case, the Call Deposits (Demand Deposits Account, in foreign currency) - are sufficient to cover the liquidity risks of a financial institution and, in other hand, optimize the profit provided from the remaining balance that exceeds the outputs of the models. Here, the Cash Flow model of Schmaltz (2009), which segregates the model in different components (deterministic and stochastic), is applied to determine the cash needs and, through the Monte Carlo method for predicting different cash flows, is stipulated an average value of balance to be used in overnight. As a contrast, the deterministic model of Ringbom et al (2004) is used to provide the "Profit-Maximizing Reserve Ratio" to finally compare both of them historically, between Jan/2009 and Dec/2013, in order to conclude which of models of cash reserve shows to be more satisfying. The database used replicate balances and withdraws of a commercial bank, to this specific financial product, and it is also used for parameters estimation. / Este trabalho tem como objetivo comparar diferentes métodos de previsão de necessidades de caixa no overnight, que assegurem que a liquidez de um produto financeiro específico – neste caso, o Call Deposits (Depósito à Vista, em moeda estrangeira) – seja suficiente para cobrir os riscos de liquidez de uma instituição financeira e, em contrapartida, otimizem o lucro oriundo do saldo restante que ultrapasse o valor de saída destes modelos. Para isso, o modelo de Fluxo de Caixa de Schmaltz (2009), que segrega os diferentes componentes do caixa (determinísticos e estocásticos), será utilizado para determinar as necessidades de caixa e, através do método de Monte Carlo para a previsão de diferentes caminhos, chegamos a um valor médio de saldo para ser utilizado no overnight. Como comparativo, será utilizado o modelo determinístico de Ringbom et al (2004), que oferece a 'Taxa de Reserva de Maximização de Lucro', para, enfim, compará-los historicamente, entre Jan/2009 e Dez/2013, a fim de concluirmos qual dos modelos de reservas de caixa se mostra mais satisfatório. A base de dados utilizada replica os saldos e saques de um banco comercial, para o produto financeiro em questão, e, também, é utilizada para a estimação dos parâmetros.

Cette thèse s'inscrit dans le contexte d'après crises des subprimes et des dettes souveraines européennes. Il s'agit de périodes durant lesquelles les banques, en particulier dans la zone Euro et aux Etats-Unis, ont fait face à un assèchement de liquidité sans précédent ayant paralysé le système bancaire et conduit à la faillite de banques dont certaines solvables. La thèse cherche à répondre à la problématique suivante : Quelles sont les raisons du dysfonctionnement de deux canaux importants d'approvisionnement en liquidité par les banques, à savoir, le marché des actifs et surtout le marché monétaire interbancaire ? L'objectif est d'avoir un cadre d'analyse qui permet d'évaluer les propositions de la réglementation Bâle III en matière de contrôle du risque de liquidité dans les banques et d'éclairer les réflexions autour de la supervision bancaire. La première étude empirique est consacrée aux interactions entre le risque de liquidité de financement et le risque de liquidité de marché en situation de crise. Elle confirme bien la présence d'un renforcement mutuel entre ces deux types de risque dans les cas américain et européen durant la période allant de 2007 à 2011. La deuxième étude empirique se focalise sur le dysfonctionnement du marché monétaire interbancaire dans la zone Euro durant la même période en identifiant les motifs de la thésaurisation de liquidité par les banques, à savoir, le risque de contrepartie, le motif de précaution et le motif de spéculation. Les résultats montrent bien qu'il y a une relation significativement positive entre ces trois facteurs et la thésaurisation. Enfin, la troisième étude met l'accent sur les conséquences de la thésaurisation en termes de contagion interbancaire et de risque systémique. Les résultats confirment en effet l'impact de la thésaurisation sur le risque systémique dans la zone Euro. / During the U.S subprimes and the European sovereign debt crisis, banks faced with an unprecedent liquidity drying-up, leading to a banking system paralysis and failures of banks (including some solvable banks), in particular in United States and Euro zone. This dissertation seeks to answer the following question: what are the reasons of dysfunction of two important channels of liquidity supply of banks, namely, asset market and interbank money market? The aim is to have an analysis framework in order to evaluate banking regulations issued by Basel III and to enlighten reflections about banking supervision. The first empirical study examines the interactions between funding liquidity risk and market liquidity risk. Its results confirm that these two risk types are mutually reinforcing in American and European cases during the period between 2007 and 2011. The second empirical study focuses on the failure of the interbank market in Euro zone during the same period by identifying the motives behind the bank liquidity hoarding, namely, counterparty risk, precautionary motive and speculative motive. The results show that there is a significantly positive relation between these three factors and the liquidity hoarding. Finally, the third empirical study illustrates the repercussions of this phenomenon on systemic risk. The results confirm the impact of liquidity hoarding on systemic risk in Euro zone.

Submitted by Guilherme Hideo Assaoka Hossaka (ghossaka@gmail.com) on 2018-09-07T17:43:58Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Stochastic_Supply_Curves_and_Liquidity_Costs.pdf: 6114705 bytes, checksum: 383773b2814d582892c750a566229869 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Janete de Oliveira Feitosa (janete.feitosa@fgv.br) on 2018-09-18T13:52:02Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Stochastic_Supply_Curves_and_Liquidity_Costs.pdf: 6114705 bytes, checksum: 383773b2814d582892c750a566229869 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2018-09-26T20:00:18Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Stochastic_Supply_Curves_and_Liquidity_Costs.pdf: 6114705 bytes, en checksum: 383773b2814d582892c750a566229869 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2018-06-26 / Market Liquidity is characterized by the easiness and freedom to trade assets at desired volumes and for prices perceived as representative of their values. When there is a scarcity of bid and ask offers at those terms, traders face the so called Market Liquidity Risk and they must offer concessions on their original offers, leading to additional costs. Approaches to model this phenomena exist in broad variety but a common component of most Market Liquidity models is an instantaneous cost component, also known as transaction/execution costs or realized/instantaneous impact. This element, here the Liquidity Cost, gives the actual trading prices faced by a trader, frequently a deviation from the unobservable “true price”, normally represented as a GBM with the mid-price as a proxy for modeling purposes. Although it is clear that Liquidity Costs are a relevant aspect of Market Liquidity Risk and it is present in many models, it is relegated to a more simplistic treatment, being though as well-behaved, deterministic, smooth and static. The main point of this work is to follow a different approach by evaluating Liquidity Costs at a microstructural level by estimating the Stochastic Supply Curve from C¸ etin-Jarrow-Protter Model for Brazilian equities. To do so, high-frequency-data from B3’s ftp is used and to build Limit Order Books for several stocks at intraday periods. The empirical findings support the existence of non-trivial Stochastic Supply Curves as a representation for Liquidity Costs in several equities on Brazilian Markets. Additionally, there is evidence that Liquidity Costs may behave in contrast with some of the literature, being stochastic with time-varying functional representations on the LOB and with liquidity parameters that could be represented as mean-reverting stochastic process.

Le risque de liquidité des banques reflète leur fonction de création de liquidité. Ces institutions sont fragiles par nature, exposées à la menace de ruées des créanciers de court terme. La thèse contribue par plusieurs aspects à une meilleure compréhension du risque de liquidité. Le deuxième chapitre propose une mesure de la fragilité bancaire basée sur la valeur des actifs détenus. Les résultats confirment de manière originale le caractère fragile des banques. La fonction de production de liquidité bancaire est toutefois bénéfique pour l’économie. Le troisième chapitre propose une analyse de la capacité des banques à produire de la liquidité en lien avec leurs choix d’activité et leur business model. La production d’information dans le cadre d’un modèle relationnel et la capacité à bénéficier de synergies informationnelles entre segments d’activité apparaissent comme déterminant l’efficacité de la production de liquidité bancaire. Néanmoins, l’exposition excessive des banques au risque de liquidité est à l’origine des crises. Le quatrième chapitre évalue l’exposition des banques au risque de liquidité en fonction de l’évolution des conditions générales de liquidité. Les résultats soulignent l’impact différencié des chocs de liquidité sur le risque supporté par les banques. / Bank liquidity risk reflects the function of banks to create liquidity. Banks are fragile, exposed to the possibility of runs from short-term creditors. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of bank liquidity risk. The second chapter proposes a measure of bank fragility based on the value of the assets held by a bank. Results confirm, in an original way, the fragile nature of banks. However, bank liquidity creation benefits to the economy. The third chapter analyses the capacity of banks to produce liquidity in conjunction with their choices in terms of activity and business model. Determinants of the efficiency to produce liquidity appear to be the bank capacity to produce information through a relationship-oriented business model and to benefit from informational synergies through the activity mix. Nevertheless, excessive exposition of banks to liquidity risk results in bank liquidity crises. The fourth chapter investigates bank exposition to liquidity risk depending on the evolution of aggregate liquidity conditions. Results underline the heterogenous effect of liquidity shocks on the risk borne by banks.

The objective of this report is to carry out a pre-study and develop a framework for how the liquidity and interest rate risk of a bank's demand deposits can be modeled. This is done by first calibrating a Vasicek short rate model and then deriving models for the bank's deposit volume and deposit rate using multiple regression. The volume model and the deposit rate model are used to determine the liquidity and interest rate risk, which is done separately. The liquidity risk is determined by a liquidity quantile which estimates the minimum deposit volume that is expected to remain in the bank over a given time period. The interest rate risk is quantified by an arbitrage-free valuation of the demand deposit which can be used to determine the sensitivity of the net present value of the demand deposit caused by a parallel shift in the market rates. Furthermore, an immunization and a replicating portfolio are constructed and the performances of these are tested when introducing the same parallel shifts in the market rates as in the valuation of the demand deposit. The conclusion of this thesis is that the framework for the liquidity risk management that is developed gave satisfactory results and could be used by the bank if the deposit volume is estimated on representative data and a more accurate model for the short rate is used. The interest rate risk framework did however not yield as reliable results and would be more challenging to implement as a more advanced model for the deposit rate is required. / Målet med denna rapport är att utveckla ett ramverk för att bestämma likviditets-och ränterisken som är relaterad till en banks inlåningsvolym. Detta görs genom att först ta fram en modell för korträntan via kalibrering av en Vasicek modell. Därefter utvecklas, genom multipelregression, modeller för att beskriva bankens inlåningsvolym och inlåningsränta. Dessa modeller används för att kvantifiera likviditets- och ränterisken för inlånings-volymen, vilka beräknas och presenteras separat. Likviditetsrisken bestäms genom att en likviditetskvantil tas fram, vilken estimerar den minimala inlånings-volymen som förväntas kvarstå hos banken över en given tidsperiod. Ränterisken kvantifieras med en arbitragefri värdering av inlåningen och resultatet används för att bestämma känsligheten för hur nuvärdet av inlåningsvolymen påverkas av ett parallellskifte. Utöver detta bestäms en immuniseringsportfölj samt en rep-likerande portfölj och resultatet av dessa utvärderas mot hur nuvärdet förändras givet att samma parallellskifte i ränteläget som tidigare introduceras. Slutsatsen av projektet är att det framtagna ramverket för att bestämma likviditetsrisken för inlåningen gav bra resultat och skulle kunna implementeras i dagsläget av banken, förutsatt att volymmodellen estimeras på representativ data samt att en bättre modell för korträntan används. Ramverket för att bestämma ränterisken gav dock inte lika tillförlitliga resultat och är mer utmanande att implementera då en mer avancerad modell för inlåningsräntan krävs.

This thesis investigates systematic liquidity risk and short-term stock price reaction to large one-day price changes. We study 642 constituents of the FTSALL share index over the period from 1st July 1992 to 29th June 2007. We show that the US evidence of a priced systematic liquidity risk of Pastor and Stambaugh (2003) and Liu (2006) is not country-specific. Particularly, systematic liquidity risk is priced in the London Stock Exchange when Amihud's (2002) illiquidity ratio is used as a liquidity proxy. Given the importance of systematic liquidity risk in the asset pricing literature, we are interested in testing whether the different levels of systematic liquidity risk across stocks can explain the anomaly following large one-day price changes. Specifically, we expect that the stocks with high sensitivity to the fluctuations in aggregate market liquidity to be more affected by price shocks. We find that most liquid stocks react efficiently to price shocks, while the reactions of the least liquid stocks support the uncertain information hypothesis. However, we show that time-varying risk is more important than systematic liquidity risk in explaining the price reaction of stocks in different liquidity portfolios. Indeed, the time varying risk explains nearly all of the documented overreaction and underreaction following large one-day price changes. Our evidence suggests that the observed anomalies following large one-day price shocks are caused by the pricing errors arising from the use of static asset pricing models. In particular, the conditional asset pricing model of Harris et al. (2007), which allow both risk and return to vary systematically over time, explain most of the observed anomalies. This evidence supports the Brown et al. (1988) findings that both risk and return increase in a systematic fashion following price shocks. / Yarmouk University, Jordan.

Магистерская диссертация посвящена исследование влияния факторов риска на финансовую устойчивость банков и поиск возможностей для совершенствования методического инструментария при стресс-тестировании банковского сектора. В качестве научной новизны предложена эконометрическая модель, позволяющая осуществлять стресс-тестирование (риска ликвидности и кредитного риска) отдельных коммерческих банков и банковского сектора. / Master's thesis is devoted to the study of the influence of risk factors on the financial stability of banks and the search for opportunities to improve the methodological tools for stress testing the banking sector. As a scientific novelty, an econometric model is proposed that allows stress testing (liquidity risk and credit risk) of individual commercial banks and the banking sector.

Text in Afrikkans / Summaries in English and Afrikaans / The capital-adequacy problem is essentially concerned with the amount of capital that a bank should maintain in order to conduct its operations in a prudent manner. Because one of the primary functions of bank capital is to act as a risk cushion for the protection of a bank's depositors, a bank's capital funds are often regarded as comprising an insurance element. The capital-adequacy concept, therefore, may be seen as part of the overall banking risk, or prudential management. An attempt has been made to indicate that bank supervisors should use not only capital ratios when analysing a bank's capital position. Other factors, such as asset quality and other financial risks, should also be taken in consideration. Financial ratio analysis, however, provides bank supervisors with useful information. When combining ratio analysis with non-quantifiable factors, bank supervisors may indeed achieve their goal of determining capital adequacy. / Die kapitaaltoereikendheidsprobleem is hoofsaaklik gebaseer op die hoeveelheid kapitaal waaroor 'n bankinstelling moet beskik, ten einde die bankbesigheid op 'n verstandige wyse te bedryf. Een van die primere funksies van kapitaal is om te dien as verliesabsorberingsbuffer ter beskerming van 'n bankinstelling se deposante, en daarom word toereikende kapitaal dikwels geag om 'n soort versekeringselement te bevat. Die konsep van kapitaaltoereikendheid kan dus beskou word as deel van die totale risikobestuurskonsep. Daar is tydens die studie gepoog om aan te dui dat banktoesighouers nie net kapitaalverhoudings behoort te gebruik om 'n bankinstelling se kapitaalposisie te ontleed nie. Ander faktore, soos batekwaliteit en antler finansiele risiko's, moet ook in ag geneem word. Finansiele verhoudingsgetalontledings voorsien banktoesighouers van waardevolle inligting. Indien verhoudingsgetalle egter met nie-gekwantifiseerde inligting gekombineer sou word, kan banktoesighouers hul doel om kapitaaltoereikendheid te bepaal, bereik. / M.Com. (Business Management)