京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地域研究) / 甲第22556号 / 地博第259号 / 新制||地||98(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院アジア・アフリカ地域研究研究科東南アジア地域研究専攻 / (主査)教授 玉田 芳史, 教授 岡本 正明, 准教授 中西 嘉宏 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Area Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

Among scholars in the field of state and local politics, the value of using the state and local levels of analysis cannot be overemphasized. Examining political trends at these levels often provides us with far more information about the United States than only looking at the national level. This is true particularly for subjects like elections, parties, and realignment. The research reported here adds to a body of literature that focuses on the state level when examining elections and party realignment. In this thesis I focus on the dynamics of elections in West Virginia. The main focus of this research is to see to what to extent West Virginia has experienced a realignment of its political party system. Due to regional differences within the state I anticipate that more change will occur farther north and east. The data used here to explore these differences are at the county and state legislative district levels and were gathered from the Secretary of State's office in West Virginia (on-line) and from the 1980 and 1990 U.S. census. Such measures as turnout, registration and election results at the federal and state levels will be used to indicate changes in partisan competition. / Master of Arts

This thesis studies how Liberal Democrat members and supporters use Internet tools to mobilise volunteers within local election campaigns. It also identifies who is most likely to use these tools and who is most likely to perceive that they are useful. Existing studies of the use of Internet tools to mobilise volunteers are limited because they have typically focused upon the Internet-as-a-whole, instead of breaking it down into smaller, more meaningful categories. It is important to study Internet tools individually as they each have different features and some are more deeply integrated into mobilisation practices than others. Therefore, this thesis addresses this limitation by focusing upon three specific Internet tools: Facebook, Twitter and email. It uses data generated from a participant observation, survey and series of semi-structured interviews. Similarly, few studies have been carried out in England or within the context of second order elections. As a result, this thesis explores the perceptions of grassroots activists in relation to English local elections, thus offering a relatively unique perspective upon the link between Internet tools and volunteer mobilisation. The findings confirm that it is beneficial to analyse Internet tools individually because there are significant differences in how they are used, in addition to who uses them and who perceives them to be useful. Email is the most commonly used; it is also perceived to be the most useful for mobilising volunteers and increasing membership. Younger people are more likely to use Facebook and Twitter and to perceive that they are useful tools, whereas older people are less likely to do so. This emphasises the importance of younger supporters, as the party would find it more difficult to reach online audiences without them. This thesis argues that people that become involved as a result of Internet tools are less likely to remain heavily involved over the long-term. For instance, externally elected public officials are less likely to join online or use Internet tools to mobilise volunteers and increase membership. This fits with a wider pattern of engagement amongst party elites and long-term members. It emphasises the importance of using a combination of online and offline tools to mobilise volunteers and increase membership.

The purpose of this study was to determine the community power structure and its influence on the outcome of bond elections in four selected school districts in the State of Texas. The investigation of the following subproblems was necessary: 1. To determine the involvement of power structure in the decision-making process of the school district. 2. To determine the community people who have exercised the greatest influence in school matters. 3. To determine the educator's need to become cognizant of the nature of power structure. 4. To determine to what extent leaders in school bond elections are also leaders in non-school issues.

Esta dissertação tem como objetivo analisar o processo de refundação do Partido da Frente Liberal (PFL), que resultou na troca de comando do partido e na substituição da denominação anterior da legenda por Democratas (DEM), em março de 2007. Assumimos a hipótese de que a transferência do PFL para a oposição a partir de 2003, fato inédito na história do partido e que foi decorrente da chegada do PT ao poder federal, foi o evento determinante para a decisão de seus dirigentes de tentar dar nova imagem e identidade ao PFL. Argumentamos também que a refundação teve como objetivo reposicionar o PFL no mercado político eleitoral brasileiro de modo a que pudesse atrair o apoio da classe média urbana localizada nas cidades de médio e grande porte. Mostramos que a passagem para a oposição desencadeou o enfraquecimento do PFL. Dois movimentos conjugados provocaram o retraimento do partido: 1) a transferência de políticos pefelistas para legendas aliadas ao governo Lula; 2) o mau desempenho eleitoral na região Nordeste, reduto tradicional do PFL em sua fase governista e que passou a ser progressivamente dominado por partidos que apoiavam a administração petista. Por fim, com base nos resultados das eleições municipais de 2000, 2004 e 2008, apresentamos dados e testes estatísticos que sustentam a ideia de que os municípios menos desenvolvidos, menos populosos, localizados no Nordeste e cujas economias são mais dependentes do setor público possuem viés governista. Isto é, nessas localidades, mais do que no restante do país, o poder local tende a se alinhar com o poder federal. Tal tendência parece fornecer uma boa explicação para o retraimento do PFL nos municípios com as características acima definidas. / This dissertation aims to analyze the re-foundation process of the Partido da Frente Liberal (PFL), which resulted in the change of command of the party and the replacement of the previous name of the legend by Democrats (DEM) in March 2007. We assume the hypothesis that the transfer of the PFL for the opposition since 2003, unprecedented in the history of the party and that was determined by the arrival of PT in the federal government, was the crucial event to the decision of party leaders to try to give new image and identity to the PFL. We argue also that the re-foundation aimed to reposition the PFL in Brazilian electoral political market in order to attract the support of the urban middle class located in large and medium-sized cities. We show that the transition to the opposition led to the weakening of the PFL. Two movements together caused the retreat of the party: 1) the transfer of PFL politicians to parties allied to Lula´s administration, 2) the poor electoral performance in the Northeast, traditional stronghold of the PFL during the time it was in the government and that was progressively dominated by parties which supported PT administration. Finally, dealing with the results of municipal elections in 2000, 2004 and 2008, we present data and statistical tests that support the idea that less developed municipalities, few populated, located in the Northeast region and whose economies are more dependent on public sector have a progovernment bias. That is, in these locations, more than in the rest of the country, local government tends to align with the federal government. This trend seems to provide a good explanation for the withdrawal of the PFL in municipalities with the characteristics specified above.

When votes are cast in an election and a winner is declared, people can accept the result, they can challenge it or they can turn against democracy. This thesis seeks to understand why in some cases elections are accepted while in others they are challenged and their outcomes rejected. Conventional wisdom holds that when elections are held according to international standards, acceptance will follow. I challenge this notion. As experience shows, sometimes even elections classified as free and fair evoke protests, while less technically perfect elections are sometimes widely accepted. So, when, where and under what conditions are election results accepted? And what can we do to increase their credibility? There are many aspects than can influence this but I focus on three main areas that deserve especial attention. A first research phase relies on Qualitative Comparative Analysis. It shows that holding free and fair elections is necessary but not sufficient for the acceptance of election results. Two other factors are needed: a) political parties need to support electoral institutions and b) election results need to be transparent. A second research phase uses multilevel regression to explore the first of these factors in greater detail. Findings show that including political parties in the appointment of the members of the electoral management body has a positive impact on election credibility. A third research phase consisting of a small N structured comparison focuses on election results. It shows that having visible and inferable results contributes to preventing and mitigating post-election protests. In short, an election not only has to be “free and fair” but also needs the legitimacy and credibility obtained when political parties support the main election institution and when results are clear, widely available and completely beyond doubt.

Women’s political representation is often investigated through cross-national comparisons. Such studies generally focus on women’s political representation at the national level, assuming that countries are homogenous units. However, structural and cultural differences are many times just as large within countries as they are between them. Modernization theory suggests that women’s political representation will increase with development, something that a number of previous studies on primarily Western countries find support for. In order to see if this theory is applicable also on a developing country like Brazil, this quantitative study compares the aggregated share of locally elected women (dependent variable) in 136 Brazilian regions in the 2012 municipal elections with levels of log GDP per capita, population density and female labor force participation (independent variables). In contrast to previous studies on Western countries, the results of this study find no support for the ideas of modernization theory. With moderate correlation, this study actually indicates that higher values of GDP per capita and female labor force participation have negative effects on women’s political representation at the local level in the compared Brazilian regions. Population density was not found to have any substantial effect on women’s political representation.

Various questions regarding Latinos’ descriptive representation in the mayoralty are examined in this dissertation including: Where and why are Latino mayors elected? Why do Latino mayoral candidates emerge and win? And, is there is a link between Latino ethnicity and electoral outcomes in municipal elections? The empirical results of a cross-sectional analysis of U.S. cities from 1981-2006 suggest that institutions such as term limits and mayor-council governments influence the representation of Latinos in the mayoralty. These effects, however, are conditioned by Latinos’ numerical strength in a city – which suggests that Latino descriptive representation in the mayoralty is largely a function of population size. Despite the prominence of this factor, the results further reveal that Latinos need to swell the ranks of the city council to provide a steady supply of qualified Latino candidates to ultimately win the mayoralty. An analysis of 648 mayoral elections in 113 cities in the Southwest further tests theories of Latino candidate emergence and success based on city-level factors – that supply elections with Latino candidates – as well as strategic factors in elections – that influence Latino candidates’ cost-benefit decision calculus. The results reveal a combined effect of supply and strategy on candidate emergence and success. For example, in cities where Latinos are sizeable (+40 percent) and the electoral context is more competitive (i.e., where turnout is high, more candidates are on the ballot, and when incumbents are not vying for reelection), Latino candidates are more likely to emerge. A similar pattern occurs with regard to the success of Latino candidates except that the individual candidate’s previous political experience is particularly influential in improving their chances of winning. Given the theoretical expectation regarding the impact of ethnicity on electoral outcomes in municipal elections, I also examine whether Latino ethnicity shapes turnout rates and the margin of victory. Latino ethnicity is not statistically associated with these outcomes. However, other factors such as the election timing and the type of election (i.e., runoff election, open seat) seem to be more influential. In sum, the research here examines various aspects of Latino representation in the mayoralty that is the most comprehensive to date.

The research presented here has three major purposes. The first is to explain how political institutions and policy outputs can change in the presence of a growing minority population when the preferences of these minorities differ from those of the majority. I show how representation in all three branches of government can lead to these changes, specifically in the local legislature and local bureaucracy. Secondly, I demonstrate the relationship between local legislative representation of Latino minority populations to substantive policy outcomes that favor this minority group, and explain how variable electoral institutions influence this relationship. The third general purpose of this research is to make the argument that the study of minority politics need not take place within a theoretical vacuum. That is, I use theories of minority group behavior (as opposed to Latino group behavior), and relevant empirical tests, to inform mainstream democratic theory. What democratic theory is missing, I argue, is the ability to fully explain and predict changes in institutions, policy, and policy outputs in a dynamic preference environment. Examining minority politics over time helps fill this void.

published_or_final_version / Social Work / Master / Master of Social Work