In this dissertation, I study the performance of asset-pricing models in explaining the cross section of expected stock returns. The finance literature has uncovered several potential failings of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). I investigate the ability of additional risk factors, which are not considered by the CAPM, to explain these problems. In particular, I examine intertemporal risk and long-run risk in the cross section of returns. In addition, I develop a firm-level test to refine and reassess the cross-sectional evidence against the CAPM. In the first chapter, I test the cross-sectional implications of the Intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) of Merton (1973) and Campbell (1993, 1996) using a new firm-level approach. I find that the ICAPM performs well in explaining returns. Consistent with theoretical predictions, investors require a large positive premium for taking on market risk and zero-beta assets earn the risk-free rate. Moreover, investors accept lower returns on assets that hedge against adverse shifts in the investment opportunity set. The ICAPM explains more cross-sectional variation in average returns than either the CAPM or Fama-French (1993) model. I also investigate whether the SMB and HML factors of the Fama-French model proxy for intertemporal risk and find little evidence in favor of this conjecture. In the second chapter, we propose an intertemporal asset-pricing model that simultaneously resolves the puzzling negative relations between expected stock return and analysts' forecast dispersion, idiosyncratic volatility, and credit risk. All three effects emerge in a long-run risk economy accommodating a formal cross section of firms characterized by mean-reverting expected dividend growth. Higher cash flow duration firms exhibit higher exposure to economic growth shocks while they are less sensitive to firm-specific news. Such firms command higher risk premiums but exhibit lower measures of idiosyncratic risk. Empirical evidence broadly supports our model's predictions, as higher dispersion, idiosyncratic volatility, and credit risk firms display lower exposure to long-run risk along with higher firm-specific risk. Lastly, in the third chapter, we examine asset-pricing anomalies at the firm level. Portfolio-level tests linking CAPM alphas to a large number of firm characteristics suggest that the CAPM fails across multiple dimensions. There are, however, concerns that underlying firm-level associations may be distorted at the portfolio level. In this paper we use a hierarchical Bayes approach to model conditional firm-level alphas as a function of firm characteristics. Our empirical results indicate that much of the portfolio-based evidence against the CAPM is overstated. Anomalies are primarily confined to small stocks, few characteristics are robustly associated with CAPM alphas out of sample, and most firm characteristics do not contain unique information about abnormal returns.

<p>The three essays in this dissertation explore the role of fluctuations in aggregate volatility and global temperature as sources of systemic risk. </p><p>The first essay proposes a production-based asset pricing model and provides empirical evidence suggesting that compensation for volatility risk is closely related to an unexplored characteristic of a firm, namely, its reliance on skilled labor. I propose a model in which aggregate growth has time-varying volatility, and linear adjustment costs in labor increase with the skill of a worker. The model predicts that expected returns increase with a firm's reliance on skilled labor, as well as compensation for fluctuations in aggregate uncertainty. Consequently, a rise in aggregate uncertainty predicts an increase in expected returns as well as in cautiousness in hiring and firing. This impact is larger for firms with a high share of skilled workers because their labor is more costly to adjust. I empirically test the implications of the model using occupational estimates to construct a measure of a firm's reliance on skilled labor, and find a positive and statistically significant cross-sectional relation between the reliance on skilled labor and expected returns. Empirical estimates also show that an increase in aggregate uncertainty leads to a rise in expected returns, and this impact is larger for firms which rely heavily on skilled labor; thereby, a firm's exposure to aggregate volatility is positively related to its reliance on skilled labor.</p><p>In the second and third essay, co-authored with Ravi Bansal, we explore the impact of global temperature on financial markets and the macroeconomy. In tho second essay we explore if temperature is an aggregate risk factor that adversely affects economic growth. First, using data on global capital markets we find that the risk-exposure of these returns to temperature shocks, i.e., their temperature beta, is a highly significant variable in accounting for cross-sectional differences in expected returns. Second, using a panel of countries we show that GDP growth is negatively related to global temperature, suggesting that temperature can be a source of aggregate risk. To interpret the empirical evidence, we present a quantitative consumption-based long-run risks model that quantitatively accounts for the observed cross-sectional differences in temperature betas, the compensation for temperature risk, and the connection between aggregate growth and temperature risks. </p><p>The last essay proposes a general equilibrium model that simultaneously models the world economy and global climate to understand the impact of climate change on the economy. We use this model to evaluate the role of temperature in determining asset prices, and to compute utility-based welfare costs as well as dollar costs of insuring against temperature fluctuations. We find that the temperature related utility-costs are about 0.78% of consumption, and the total dollar costs of completely insuring against temperature variation are 2.46% of world GDP. If we allow for temperature-triggered natural disasters to impact growth, insuring against temperature variation raise to 5.47% of world GDP.</p> / Dissertation

This thesis studies currency premia and their connections with macroeconomics. In the first essay, I link currency premia to capital-output ratios and the well-known “Lucas Paradox”. The “Lucas Paradox” states that there are large and persistent differences in capital-output ratios across countries, suggesting capital is not flowing to countries where it is relatively scarce. In the data, capital-output ratios vary a lot cross-sectionally even within developed countries, and they are negatively correlated with currency risk premia and risk-free rates. To rationalize these patterns, I build a quantitative multi-country model of capital accumulation with external habit and heterogeneous exposures to a global productivity shock. I show that currency risk in this model generates cross-country variations in risk-free rates and capital-output ratios that are consistent with the data. I estimate the model using GDP data from countries issuing the G10 currencies and find two main results: (1) The heterogenous loadings that I extract from GDP data alone are highly correlated with capital-output ratios; and (2) when I feed the estimated loadings into the model, model-generated capital-output ratios account for roughly 55% of the cross-country variation in the data. I conclude that variation in currency risk and therefore currency risk premia have significant effects on the real economy. In the second essay, I identify a quantitative puzzle when using canonical consumption-based asset pricing models to match currency premia under complete markets. Canonical long-run risk and habit models induce a strong, negative correlation between the variance and the mean of the log stochastic discount factor to address the well-known equity premium puzzle. When applied to an open economy with complete markets, this key feature requires that differences in currency returns should arise primarily from predictable appreciations, a requirement that is at odds with the data. We term this tension between a high equity premium, smooth risk-free rates, and largely unpredictable exchange rates the currency premium puzzle and argue it is the underlying reason why existing international asset pricing models have struggled to simultaneously match data on currency returns, equity returns, and risk-free rates. In the third essay, I show that perturbation methods lead to significant computational errors when used to solve international risk-sharing models with Epstein and Zin (1989) preferences. In particular, if countries feature different sizes, the simulating results violate law of iterated expectations. Even under symmetric setups, the errors along a typical simulation path are non-negligible. I conclude that perturbation-based solutions of EZ risk-sharing models should be used with caution.

Stocks, Bonds, and Long-Run Consumption Risks. Bansal and Yaron (2004) show that long-run consumption risks and time-varying economic uncertainty in conjunction with recursive preferences can account for important features of equity markets. I bring the model to the term structure of interest rates and show that a calibrated version of the model can simultaneously explain properties of bonds and equities. Specifically, the model accounts for deviations from the expectations hypothesis, the upward sloping nominal yield curve, and the predictive power of the nominal yield spread. However, an estimation of the model using Simulated Method of Moments yields less convincing results and illustrates the difficulty of precisely estimating parameters of the model. Real (nominal) interest rates in the model are positively (negatively) correlated with consumption growth and real stock returns move inversely with inflation. The cyclicality of nominal interest rates and yield spreads is shown to depend on the relative values of the elasticity of intertemporal substitution and the correlation between real consumption growth and inflation. The “Fed-model” and the Changing Correlation of Stock and Bond Returns: An Equilibrium Approach. This paper presents an equilibrium model that provides a rational explanation for two features of data that have been considered puzzling: The positive relation between US dividend yields and nominal interest rates, often called the Fed-model, and the time-varying correlation of US stock and bond returns. Key ingredients are time-varying first and second moments of consumption growth, inflation, and dividend growth in conjunction with Epstein-Zin and Weil recursive preferences. Historically in the US, inflation has signaled low future consumption growth. The representative agent therefore dislikes positive inflation shocks and demands a positive risk premium for holding assets that are poor inflation hedges, such as equity and nominal bonds. As a result, risk premiums on equity and nominal bonds comove positively through their exposure to macroeconomic volatility. This generates a positive correlation between dividend yields and nominal yields and between stock and bond returns. High levels of macro volatility in the late 1970s and early 1980s caused stock and bond returns to comove strongly. The subsequent moderation in aggregate economic risk has brought correlations lower. The model is able to produce correlations that can switch sign by including the covariances between consumption growth, inflation, and dividend growth as state variables. International Bond Risk Premia. We extend Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005, CP) to international bond markets by constructing forecasting factors for bond excess returns across different countries. While the international evidence for predictability is weak using Fama and Bliss (1987) regressions, we document that local CP factors have significant predictive power. We also construct a global CP factor and provide evidence that it predicts bond returns with high R2 across countries. The local and global factors are jointly significant when included as regressors, which suggests that variation in bond excess returns are driven by country-specific factors and a common global factor. Shocks to US bond risk premia seem to be particularly important determinants for international bond premia. Motivated by these results, we estimate a parsimonious no-arbitrage affine term structure model in which risk premia are driven by one local and one global CP factor. We find that international bond risk premia are driven by a local slope factor and a world interest rate level factor.

Die vorliegende Dissertation zu makroökonomischen Themen beinhaltet einen einleitenden Literaturüberblick, drei eigenständige und voneinander unabhängige Kapitel sowie einen technischen Anhang. In Kapitel zwei wird ein Zwei-Länder Modell einer Währungsunion betrachtet, in dem die gemeinsame Zentralbank die Wohlfahrt der gesamten Währungsunion maximieren will, während die zwei fiskalpolitischen Akteure vergleichbare, aber minimal abweichende länderspezifische Verlustfunktionen zu minimieren suchen. Das Konkurrenzverhalten dieser drei Institutionen wird in sieben spieltheoretischen Szenarien analysiert. Beim Vergleich einer homogenen mit einer heterogenen Währungsunion lassen sich für letztere deutlich höhere Wohlfahrtsverluste relativ zum sozialen Optimum feststellen. Die Szenarien mit den geringsten Wohlfahrtsverlusten sind Kooperation aller drei Institutionen und eine Stackelberg-Führerschaft der Zentralbank. Kapitel drei untersucht, inwieweit das Verhältnis von Immobilienpreise zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt als langfristig konstant und nur auf Grund von Produktivitätsschocks von seinem Mittelwert abweichend angesehen werden kann. Hierzu wird ein Zwei-Sektoren RBC-Modell für den Immobiliensektor und einen Konsumgütersektor erstellt. Es wird gezeigt, dass ein antizipierter, zukünftiger Schock auf das Produktivitätswachstum im Konsumgütersektor eine sofortige, deutliche Erhöhung der Immobilienpreise relativ zum Bruttoinlandsprodukt zur Folge hat. In Kapitel vier wird gefragt, ob ein typisches Neukeynesianisches Modell "sechs große Rätsel der internationalen Makroökonomie" erklären kann. Die sechs Rätsel werden in Bedingungen für erste und zweite Momente übersetzt und fünf wesentliche Modellparameter geschätzt. Das Ergebnis ist erstaunlich gut: unter anderem können die empirischen Beobachtungen zur Heimatpräferenz wiedergegeben und die Schwankungsbreite des realen Wechselkurses deutlich erhöht werden. Handelskosten sind für dieses Ergebnis ein wesentlicher Faktor. / This dissertation consists of an introductory chapter with an extended literature review, three chapters on individual and independent research topics, and an appendix. Chapter 2 uses a two-country model with a central bank maximizing union-wide welfare and two fiscal authorities minimizing comparable, but slightly different country-wide losses. The rivalry between the three authorities is analyzed in seven static games. Comparing a homogeneous with a heterogeneous monetary union, welfare losses relative to the social optimum are found to be significantly larger in a heterogeneous union. The best-performing scenarios are cooperation between all authorities and monetary leadership. The goal of Chapter 3 is to investigate whether or not it is possible to explain the house price to GDP ratio and the house price to stock price ratio as being generally constant, deviating from its respective mean only because of shocks to productivity? Building a two-sector RBC model for residential and non-residential capital, it is shown that an anticipated future shock to productivity growth in the non-residential sector leads to an immediate large increase in house prices relative to GDP. In Chapter 4, it is asked whether a typical New Keynesian Open Economy Model is able to explain "Six Major Puzzles in International Macroeconomics". After translating the six puzzles into moment conditions for the model, I estimate five parameters to fit the moment conditions implied by the data. Given the simplicity of the model, its fit is surprisingly good: among other things, the home bias puzzles can easily be replicated, the exchange rate volatility is formidably increased and the exchange rate correlation pattern is relatively close to realistic values. Trade costs are one important ingredient for this finding.

Cette thèse, divisée en trois chapitres, contribue à la vaste et récente littérature sur l'évaluation des actifs et la finance climatique. Le premier chapitre contribue à la littérature sur la finance climatique tandis que les deux derniers contribuent à la littérature sur l'évalutaion des actifs. Le premier chapitre analyse comment les politiques environnementales visant à réduire les émissions de carbone affectent les prix des actifs et la consommation des ménages. En utilisant de nouvelles données, je propose une mesure des émissions de carbone du point de vue du consommateur et une mesure du risque de croissance de la consommation de carbone. Les mesures sont basées sur des informations sur la consommation totale et l'empreinte carbone de chaque bien et service. Pour analyser les effets des politiques environnementales, un modèle de risques de long terme est développé dans lequel la croissance de la consommation comprend deux composantes: le taux de croissance de la consommation de carbone et le taux de croissance de la part de la consommation de carbone dans la consommation totale. Ce chapitre soutient que le risque de long terme de la croissance de la consommation provient principalement de la croissance de la consommation de carbone découlant des politiques et des actions visant à réduire les émissions, telles que l'Accord de Paris et la Conférence des Nations Unies sur le changement climatique (COP26). Mon modèle aide à détecter le risque de long terme dans la consommation des politiques climatiques tout en résolvant simultanément les énigmes de la prime de risque et de la volatilité, et en expliquant la coupe transversale des actifs. La décomposition de la consommation pourrait conduire à identifier les postes de consommation les plus polluants et à construire une stratégie d'investissement minimisant ou maximisant un critère environnemental de long terme. Le deuxième chapitre (co-écrit avec René Garcia et Caio Almeida) étudie le rôle des facteurs non linéaires indépendants dans la valorisation des actifs. Alors que la majorité des facteurs d'actualisation stochastique (SDF) les plus utilisés qui expliquent la coupe transversale des rendements boursiers sont obtenus à partir des composantes principales linéaires, nous montrons dans ce deuxième chapitre que le fait de permettre la substitution de certaines composantes principales linéaires par des facteurs non linéaires indépendants améliore systématiquement la capacité des facteurs d'actualisation stochastique de valoriser la coupe transversale des actifs. Nous utilisons les 25 portefeuilles de Fama-French, cinquante portefeuilles d'anomalies et cinquante anomalies plus les termes d'interaction basés sur les caractéristiques pour tester l'efficacité des facteurs dynamiques non linéaires. Le SDF estimé à l'aide d'un mélange de facteurs non linéaires et linéaires surpasse ceux qui utilisent uniquement des facteurs linéaires ou des rendements caractéristiques bruts en termes de performance mesurée par le R-carré hors échantillon. De plus, le modèle hybride - utilisant à la fois des composantes principales non linéaires et linéaires - nécessite moins de facteurs de risque pour atteindre les performances hors échantillon les plus élevées par rapport à un modèle utilisant uniquement des facteurs linéaires. Le dernier chapitre étudie la prévisibilité du rendement des anomalies à travers les déciles à l'aide d'un ensemble de quarante-huit variables d'anomalie construites à partir des caractéristiques de titres individuels. Après avoir construit les portefeuilles déciles, cet article étudie leur prévisibilité en utilisant leurs propres informations passées et d'autres prédicteurs bien connus. Les analyses révèlent que les rendements des portefeuilles déciles sont persistants et prévisibles par le ratio de la valeur comptable sur la valeur de marché de l'entreprise, la variance des actions, le rendement des dividendes, le ratio des prix sur les dividendes, le taux de rendement à long terme, le rendement des obligations d'entreprise, le TED Spread et l'indice VIX. De plus, une stratégie consistant à prendre une position longue sur le décile avec le rendement attendu le plus élevé et à prendre une position courte sur le décile avec le rendement attendu le plus bas chaque mois donne des rendements moyens et un rendement par risque bien meilleurs que la stratégie traditionnelle fondée sur les déciles extrêmes pour quarante-cinq des quarante-huit anomalies. / This thesis, divided into three chapters, contributes to the vast and recent literature on asset pricing, and climate finance. The first chapter contributes to the climate finance literature while the last two contribute to the asset pricing literature. The first chapter analyzes how environmental policies that aim to reduce carbon emissions affect asset prices and household consumption. Using novel data, I propose a measure of carbon emissions from a consumer point of view and a carbon consumption growth risk measure. The measures are based on information on aggregate consumption and the carbon footprint for each good and service. To analyze the effects of environmental policies, a long-run risks model is developed where consumption growth is decomposed into two components: the growth rate of carbon consumption and the growth rate of the share of carbon consumption out of total consumption. This paper argues that the long-run risk in consumption growth comes mainly from the carbon consumption growth arising from policies and actions to curb emissions, such as the Paris Agreement and the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP26). My model helps to detect long-run risk in consumption from climate policies while simultaneously solving the equity premium and volatility puzzles, and explaining the cross-section of assets. The decomposition of consumption could lead to identifying the most polluting consumption items and to constructing an investment strategy that minimizes or maximizes a long-term environmental criterion. The second chapter (co-authored with René Garcia, and Caio Almeida) studies the role of truly independent nonlinear factors in asset pricing. While the most successful stochastic discount factor (SDF) models that price well the cross-section of stock returns are obtained from regularized linear principal components of characteristic-based returns we show that allowing for substitution of some linear principal components by independent nonlinear factors consistently improves the SDF's ability to price this cross-section. We use the Fama-French 25 ME/BM-sorted portfolios, fifty anomaly portfolios, and fifty anomalies plus characteristic-based interaction terms to test the effectiveness of the nonlinear dynamic factors. The SDF estimated using a mixture of nonlinear and linear factors outperforms the ones using solely linear factors or raw characteristic returns in terms of out-of-sample R-squared pricing performance. Moreover, the hybrid model --using both nonlinear and linear principal components-- requires fewer risk factors to achieve the highest out-of-sample performance compared to a model using only linear factors. The last chapter studies anomaly return predictability across deciles using a set of forty-eight anomaly variables built using individual stock characteristics. After constructing the decile portfolios, this paper studies their predictability using their own past information, and other well-known predictors. The analyses reveal that decile portfolio returns are persistent and predictable by book-to-market, stock variance, dividend yield, dividend price ratio, long-term rate of return, corporate bond return, TED Spread, and VIX index. Moreover, a strategy consisting of going long on the decile with the highest expected return and going short on the decile with the lowest expected return each month gives better mean returns and Sharpe ratios than the traditional strategy based on extreme deciles for forty-five out of forty-eight anomalies.