京都大学 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第23592号 / 地環博第219号 / 新制||地環||42(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)教授 宇佐美 誠, 教授 佐藤 淳二, 教授 山村 亜希, 准教授 徳永 悠, 教授 服部 高宏 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DGAM

The Warsaw Loss and Damage Mechanism holds high appeal for complementing actions on climate change adaptation and mitigation, and for delivering needed support for tackling intolerable climate related-risks that will neither be addressed by mitigation nor by adaptation. Yet, negotiations under the UNFCCC are caught between demands for climate justice, understood as compensation, for increases in extreme and slow-onset event risk, and the reluctance of other parties to consider Loss and Damage outside of an adaptation framework. Working towards a jointly acceptable positionwe suggest an actionableway forward for the deliberations may be based on aligning comprehensive climate risk analytics with distributive and compensatory justice considerations. Our proposed framework involves in a shortmedium term, needs-based perspective support for climate risk management beyond countries ability to absorb risk. In a medium-longer term, liability-based perspective we particularly suggest to consider liabilities attributable to anthropogenic climate change and associated impacts. We develop the framework based on principles of need and liability, and identify the policy space for Loss and Damage as composed of curative and transformativemeasures. Transformativemeasures, such as managed retreat, have already received attention in discussions on comprehensive climate risk management. Curative action is less clearly defined, and more contested. Among others, support for a climate displacement facility could qualify here. For both sets of measures, risk financing (such as "climate insurance") emerges as an entry point for further policy action, as it holds potential for both risk management as well as compensation functions. To quantify the Loss and Damage space for specific countries, we suggest as one option to build on a risk layering approach that segments risk and risk interventions according to risk tolerance. An application to fiscal risks in Bangladesh and at the global scale provides an estimate of countries' financial support needs for dealing with intolerable layers of flood risk.With many aspects of Loss and Damage being of immaterial nature, we finally suggest that our broad risk and justice approach in principle can also see application to issues such as migration and preservation of cultural heritage.

abstract: Human migration is not a new phenomenon but present and future human-induced environmental changes pose new questions and challenges. In the coming years, both rapid and slow onset environmental changes will drive many people to migrate in search of improved security and livelihoods. Anthropogenic climate change in particular requires international institutions to determine how to best meet the needs of present and future migrants. I analyzed interviews with experts to identify institutional gaps for managing environmental migration and what potential, if any, the Warsaw International Mechanism for loss and damage associated with climate change impacts (WIM) might contribute to filling these gaps. Using these interviews and literature, I propose a framework to assess the capacity of existing institutions to address the breadth of migrant needs. Then, I identify gaps and challenges in order to illuminate strategies for future solutions. / Dissertation/Thesis / Masters Thesis Sustainability 2015

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(地球環境学) / 甲第20744号 / 地環博第167号 / 新制||地環||33(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院地球環境学舎地球環境学専攻 / (主査)准教授 吉野 章, 教授 岡﨑 健二, 准教授 西前 出 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Global Environmental Studies / Kyoto University / DFAM

The climate crisis has forced vulnerable countries in the Global South, such as Guatemala, to migrate. This study has two main focuses. The first one is identifying the region's most critical environmental mobility drivers. This is accomplished through a method called Reflective Equilibrium, which integrates justice, ethics, and community perspectives, allowing the connection of a community's judgments to its inherent principles so that the final judgments are consistent with each principle. Thus, this method enables reaching the first result of this work, which is identifying the two most critical environmental drivers in Guatemala while emphasizing the need to incorporate local voices and experiences to ensure fair and humane prioritization. The drivers identified are droughts and rainstorms. The second focus of this work proposes a framework that aims to guide decision-makers in which types of impacts arising from these drivers should be financially prioritized. The methods used for this investigation are a combination of literature review and risk assessment called the "standard model," providing a systemic approach to minimize, avert or address the identified environmental drivers. However, the need to include aspects of justice and rights in this prioritization is noted, as it is constantly neglected in public decisions. In addition, financing strategies are explored through the proposed framework in this study and can be applied beyond Guatemala, serving as a guide for prioritizing funding in other contexts where climate mobility drivers are a constant concern. The study suggests that Guatemalan decision- makers benefit from similar studies to provide evidence of the negative impacts of irresponsible activities by developed countries in their climate finance requests. The main aim of such an action would be to reach multilateral agreements that can be sought to safeguard fundamental human rights and protect Guatemala's natural resources by providing loss and damage funds. Recommendations for future research include estimating budgets for mitigation/adaptation strategies, assessing costs associated with the risks found here, and identifying thresholds for catastrophic events, specifically in Guatemala, thereby improving preparedness and response mechanisms.

Sea-level rise and inland flooding driven by climate change threaten the health, economic development, and social stability of Native American Tribes and Indigenous Nations. Further, loss of traditional lands threatens the cultural practices and ties to heritage that provide ontological grounding for many Indigenous Peoples. While the Federal Trust Doctrine implies a responsibility for federal policy to aid Tribes by compensating them for impacts of sea-level rise, there is no legislation securing compensation for Indigenous Nations not recognized as Tribes. Due to the incommensurable nature of the damage to Native American and Indigenous communities who lose their lands to sea-level rise, any processes of compensation must transcend relocation measures and monetary transactions. Further, to combat aid programming that perpetuates the social, legal, and cultural disenfranchisement of Native Americans and Indigenous Peoples, legislation for compensation must endorse and empower Tribes’ and Nations’ autonomy by meaningfully including their insights. This study records the perspectives of members of the Seminole and Miccosukee Tribes and Gullah/Geechee Nation on climate change in the Southeastern U.S., specifically, sea-level rise washing out ancestral lands. This study’s ultimate purpose is to understand how Tribe and Nation members perceive the response and responsibility of the U.S. government in these situations. This study also presents a legal/political analysis of climate justice in these contexts, an exploration of Truth and Reconciliation Commissions as a mechanism for climate justice, and culminates in a policy proposal regarding climate justice for Native Americans and Indigenous Peoples.

Auf der 27. Vertragsstaatenkonferenz der Klimarahmenkonvention der Vereinten Nationen (UNFCCC) im Jahr 2022 gelang es den Entwicklungsländern, einen Verlust- und Schadensfonds (engl. „Loss and Damage“ - L&D) einzurichten. L&D, umrissen als die unvermeidbaren Risiken und Auswirkungen des Klimawandels, hat für Entwicklungsländer, deren Vulnerabilität und Exposition gegenüber dem Klimawandel besonders hoch ist, hohe Priorität bei gleichzeitig dünner Beweislage. Die vorliegende Promotion richtet ihr Augenmerk auf diesen Mangel an L&D „Beweisen“ um die Rolle von Evidenzen im Rahmen der L&D Verhandlungen zu verstehen und Ansätze zu entwickeln, die negative Folgen ihres Mangels für Entwicklungsländer begrenzen. Der erste Teil dieser Arbeit zeigt, wie Verhandlungsführerinnen und -führer aus Entwicklungsländern generische Erkenntnisse zu Klimaauswirkungen nutzten, um eine hermeneutische Ungerechtigkeit zu überwinden. Politischer Nutzen von Evidenzen kann Akteuren ein Gefühl der Legitimität zu vermitteln, jedoch ohne Überzeugung der Gegenseite. Der zweite Teil dieser Arbeit hinterfragt die Rolle von Attributionswissenschaften im neuen L&D-Fonds und liefert eine normative Analyse, anhand derer rein qualitativ getroffene Attributionsaussagen einen Anspruch auf Gelder aus dem L&D Fond hinreichend legitimieren. Die Rolle von Vulnerabilität und Exposition sollten demnach keine Rolle bei der Verteilung der Gelder spielen, jedoch bei deren Verwendung in Betracht gezogen werden. Der letzte Teil dieser Promotion befasst sich mit klimatischen Risiken auf die Anpassungsfähigkeit in Entwicklungsländern und deren Konsequenzen im Rahmen von Klimarisikobewertungen. Ein Protokoll wird entworfen, um Annahmen über Anpassungsfähigkeit angesichts erwarteter Klimaschäden, einzugrenzen – was ein verringertes Risiko einer Unterschätzungen zukünftiger L&D in Klimarisikobewertungen zur Folge hätte. / At the 27th Conference of the Parties in 2022, developing countries succeeded in establishing a Loss and Damage (L&D) Fund under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). L&D, here understood as the residual risks and impacts of climate change that cannot be avoided, has been of high priority to developing countries, who also experience a lack in L&D evidence. This thesis takes the lack of L&D evidence into focus to understand the role of evidence in L&D negotiations and develop approaches to limit adverse consequences of its lack for developing countries. The first part of this thesis shows how developing country negotiators worked to overcome a hermeneutic injustice that had resulted from a lack of L&D evidence. By using publications on climate impacts to claim these risks were “beyond adaptation” negotiators managed to establish L&D as a theme under the UNFCCC. The analysis shows how the political use of evidence can strengthen the resolve of individual negotiators by giving them a sense of legitimacy, although it does not lead to persuasion of political opponents. The second part of this thesis focuses on the role of event attribution in funding decisions under the L&D fund and provides the normative basis for legitimizing claims to the L&D fund with purely qualitative attribution statements. It challenges the view that vulnerability and exposure ought to be considered in L&D funding decisions, and argues that these factors ought to inform spending decisions. Finally, this thesis turns to evidence of climatic risks on adaptive capacity. It develops a protocol for constraining assumptions on adaptive capacity in qualitative climate risk assessments, which, if implemented, could reduce the risk of underestimating future L&D in developing countries.

This thesis aims to enable the compensation for sustained Loss and Damage on Tuvalu through a principle conforming to the requirements of Climate Justice. By applying the method of conceptual framework analysis, the various concepts which form the larger frameworks of Climate Justice and Loss and Damage are identified and narrowed down to parameters. By applying the parameters of Loss and Damage, the facts of Tuvalu’s case are collected. The theory of Climate Justice is applied in the analysis to determine the requirements for compensation for Tuvalu and a concept, with which the duty to compensate can be fairly allocated. The thesis finds that the Polluter Pays Principle in connection to the Ability to Pay- and the Beneficiary Pays- Principle is best suited, since it considers both Tuvalu’s and the compensators side and thus fulfils the requirements of Climate Justice.

After years of proposals for a Loss and Damage fund meant to deliver climate justice for developing states being blocked, such a fund was established at the 27th Conference of the Parties (COP) in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt on November 20, 2022. Based on constructivist theories of norm diffusion and persuasion, complemented by theories on strategic negotiating and normative discussions of justice, this thesis conducts a directed content analysis to examine the discourses used by the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) and the EU in negotiations for the Loss and Damage fund. The results show that AOSIS has shifted from using multiple discourses to mainly justice-based arguments sometimes used strategically and was aided by a process favorable to discussing Loss and Damage at COP27. The EU, which represents itself as a leader in COPs, opposed creating new mechanisms to address loss and damage until COP27. Afterward, it positioned itself as an important contributor to the outcome. To evaluate the outcome, while the fund is aimed at distributive justice and climate justice is recognized in the COP27 text, justice discourse is absent from the Loss and Damage section. It remains to be seen whether the fund will advance climate justice.

Le changement climatique devient de plus en plus grave, ce qui a déclenché un débat approfondi sur la manière d’y faire face. La réponse internationale est l’atténuation et l’adaptation. Cette thèse considère que l’adaptation est plus importante pour les Pertes et Dommages causés par le changement climatique. La première question abordée dans la présente thèse est de savoir quelle est la définition des Pertes et Dommages causés par le changement climatique. Une autre question principale est de savoir comment remplir l’obligation d’adaptation en réponse aux Pertes et Dommages. Pour l’obligation d’adaptation, la recherche vise à donner quelques suggestions: tirer pleinement parti des mesures du Mécanisme international de Varsovie; améliorer le mécanisme de mise en œuvre de l’Accord de Paris afin de garantir que les parties contractantes remplissent leurs obligations internationales. La thèse analyse également les contre-mesures de la Chine et suggère que la Chine devrait formuler des politiques appropriées de réduction des émissions et des politiques d’aide étrangère. La thèse analyse le « principe de responsabilité commune mais différenciée ». L’objectif est de discuter de la perspective du principe sur les obligations d’adaptation. Les pays adhèrent au principe et remplissent les obligations d’adaptation ou les obligations d’assistance pour les autres pays. / Climate change is becoming more and more serious, which has triggered extensive discussion on how to deal with it. The international response are mitigation and adaptation. This thesis considers that adaptation is more important for the Loss and Damage caused by climate change. The first question addressed in the present thesis is what the definition of Loss and Damage caused by climate change is. Another principal question is how to fulfill the adaptation obligation in response to the Loss and Damage. For the adaptation obligation, the research aims to give some suggestions: to make full use of the measures under the Warsaw International Mechanism; to improve the implementation mechanism of the Paris Agreement to ensure that the contracting parties fulfill their international obligations. The thesis also analyzes China’s countermeasures, and it suggests that China should formulate appropriate emission reduction policies and foreign aid policies. The thesis analyzes the “common but differentiated responsibility principle”. The purpose is to discuss the prospect of the principle on adaptation obligations. Countries adhere to the principle and fulfill the adaptation obligations or the assistance obligations for other countries.