This dissertation consists of three essays that collectively investigate the relationship between exports, macroeconomic policy and economic growth. The first essay investigates the relationship between disaggregated exports and growthto address why many developing countries rely on primary goods as their main source of export income when evidence suggests they could earn higher returns by exporting manufactured goods.Using regression tree analysis, I find that although increasing manufacturing exports is important for sustained economic growth, this relationship only holds once a threshold level of development is reached. The results imply that a country needs a minimum level of education before it is beneficial to transition from a reliance on primary exports to manufacturing exports. Thesecond essay explores the impact of fiscal episodes on the extensive and intensive margins of exports for a sample of OECD countries. In general, a fiscal stimulus in an exporting country is associated with a substantial decrease in each margin. However, a fiscal consolidation in an exporting country is associated with a large increase in the extensive margin, yielding a positive net effect on total exports. This positive effect of a consolidation disappears when an importing country simultaneously experiences a fiscal episode. Overall, the effect of fiscal episodes on total exports and the export margins yield important ramifications for policy-makers. The third essay takes a broad perspective in characterizing the relationship between disaggregated exports, macroeconomic policy, and economic growth. Few studies consider that macroeconomic policy may influence growth, at least partly, through the export channel and none consider that this impact may differ for primary and manufacturing exports. I first explore the determinants of disaggregated exports to empirically test whether macroeconomic policy influences the size of the export sector in a country. Second, I use simultaneous equations methods to identify the impact of macroeconomic policy and exports on economic growth. Indeed, there appears to be some evidence that macroeconomic policy may affect the level of exports. Moreover, exports appear to exert an influence on growth, but the role of macroeconomic policy in the growth process seems to be only through its influence on other variables.

The world was caught unprepared for the recent crisis that has gripped the globe. The engineering manufacturing sector is reported to have been one of the hardest hit and has been haemorrhaging jobs since the global economic crisis first reached South African shores. This study aimed first, to establish the presence of a global crisis and second, to determine whether this crisis is of an economic or financial nature. Objectives of the study included determining whether the engineering manufacturing sector has been impacted on by the crisis and whether the affects of this have been of a detrimental nature. This was done primarily to assess the extent to which strategies in the engineering manufacturing sector in KwaZulu-Natal have been affected and needed to be specifically adapted in order for SMEs to survive and grow beyond the current economic circumstances. Data was collected through the use of questionnaires, a typically quantitative research technique, as well as through the compilation of literature reviews. Questionnaires were circulated amongst thirty organisations within the identified sector in KwaZulu-Natal, of which twenty-two were completed and returned for analysis. Primary data was analysed in conjunction with the literature reviews. Typical responses confirmed the existence of a crisis and indicated that strategies had to be specifically adapted as a result. However, strategic alterations were often ill informed. This issue could be address through the application of the outlined models to optimise strategy. The use of these models would better enable respondents to make informed decisions when formulating their strategies and thereby assist the organisation in achieving a sustainable competitive advantage. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.

China has been increasingly sending more contracts to work on projects in Africa. This study tests the effects of Chinese contracts on economic growth in 50 African countries as well as the correlation between Chinese contracts and other economic indicators. The paper uses data from the World Bank and National Bureau of Statistics of China starting from 2000-2015. This study finds that from 2000 to 2015, Chinese contracts have not been significant in economic growth of all African countries. The analysis does find that Chinese contracts are significant to economic growth when considering only the top five countries who have received the most contracts on average.

In this paper we analyze the impact of global imports on regional labor markets, and how such impact translates to changes in voting patterns in the U.S. Presidential elections from 2000 to 2016. We find that imports from different U.S. trading partners influence voting patterns in different ways. In particular, we observe an anti-incumbent effect caused by import competition from OECD countries. Such an effect cannot be observed for imports from low-income countries. There is also evidence that suggests high exposure to import competition tends to drive voters toward the Democratic candidate, who typically proposes better social welfare programs and more protectionist policies. For imports from low-income countries, evidence for such effects is less robust, but still significant. Despite the voters’ earlier alignment toward the Democrats, we observe a significant voter realignment toward the Republican candidate in the 2016 election due to sudden changes in the Republicans’ stance on global trade. Taken together, these results paint a picture of how the voters’ sentiment towards global trade evolves throughout time and varies with regards to different U.S. trading partners.

I analyze the correlation between a nation leader’s foreign education experience and their nation’s GDP growth and economic freedom in African, Asian, and South American countries. There is a statistically significant correlation between a leader’s foreign education and the country’s GDP growth rate, especially in Africa. Data also shows that a leader’s foreign education is positively correlated with his country’s economic freedom. Despite the fact that the regressions can only demonstrate correlation as opposed to causation relationships among variables, further analysis of the results concludes that a leader’s education and the country’s development are reciprocal. The findings of this paper shine light on future policy directions for developing countries.

Using data from government sources (FRED, BEA, BLS), the thesis explores the underlying reasons for declining U.S. economic growth. A long standing trend of annual 3% growth no longer seems to hold true for the economy. The paper summarizes current theory as to why the growth has slowed and finds new explanations by analyzing the various major industries which make up GDP. The results show that sectoral shifts in employment from high paying industries to low paying industries help to explain a significant portion of the decline in national growth rates. The decline in growth is primarily driven by about ten poor performing states.

Aggregate demand is influenced by the functional income distribution of an economy and that of its trading partners. This relationship between income distribution and output is analyzed in a short-run two-country Neo-Kaleckian model. The effects of devaluation and redistribution are discussed in detail. Trade and redistribution within one country interact and output increases or decreases with changes in either depending on the specific distributional and exchange rate movements. The Marshall-Lerner condition is shown to be equivalent to the assumption of expansionary devaluation. If devaluation increases output, national redistribution policy toward wage earners is also more likely to be expansionary. (author's abstract)

M.Comm. / This study uses annual data for five SACU members over the period 1991-2005 to investigate the evidence for convergence in macroeconomic variables. Panel unit root test as an econometric tool is utilised together with other several approaches for this analysis. The results show significant evidence that the SACU countries have reached a reasonable level of convergence on specific macroeconomic variables. This can be attributed to common economic policies and institutional features. It is also evident that the countries that are members of the CMA show a dramatically higher convergence rate. As far as monetary policy is concerned, a high degree of convergence has been achieved in SACU. However, the results show no convergence on fiscal policies. This could be attributed to data constraint on debt to GDP which was used as a proxy for fiscal policy.

M.Comm. / International studies have indicated that a high ratio of investment relative to Gross Domestic Product (GOP) is one of the most important preconditions for achieving sustainable high economic growth. For the South African economy to achieve a high employment and economic growth rate, it requires two further important factors, namely a sustained increase in productivity and an expansion of production capacity. Poor levels of investment performance, coupled with a lack of skilled labour, are the main reasons for restricted expansion in the country's growth potential and declining job opportunities. Keynes, (1936:30) argued that employment cannot increase without investment increasing, and strongly declared that the level of investment determines the level of employment. In his analysis, Keynes (1936:30) concluded that investment is a driving force for economic growth. Investment expenditure can be divided into four categories: - infrastructural investment in the public sector;- infrastructural investment in residential construction; - business fixed investment; and - the net change in the business inventories. This study examines Gross Domestic Fixed Investment and focuses mainly on private fixed investment as a driving force for economic growth for many years, GOP growth has been declining; unemployment has increased...

M.Com. (Economics) / The primary purpose of this study is a theoretical analysis of the allocation of the primary functions of the authority, with specific reference to the distribution function in a system of fiscal federalism in South Africa. An effort is made to find an answer to the question: On what level of government should the various functions of authorities and, in particular, the distribution function, be executed? South Africa is on the threshold of a new democratic system with an interim constitutional dispensation and for this reason, existing views concerning the distribution function in South Africa were also briefly investigated. The method of research comprised a literature study. In chapter two the rationale for government functions I in other words, the allocation, distribution and stabilisation functions, are theoretically analysed. The analysis also defines the nature of collective goods and services. This definition is essential because it has to serve as a point of departure in the discussion of the spatial dimension of government functions. Since the distribution function represents the central theme of the study, this function is discussed in more detail than other functions. It appears that there are different approaches to the distribution function and that it can be implemented in numerous ways. The approaches can be classified into two theories: Firstly, there is the theory which advocates equity in the execution of the distribution function. This view requires the centralisation of authority in a system of fiscal federalism. The second theory is in favour of the promotion of decentralisation of authority on the basis of economic efficiency. In chapter three the spatial aspects of government functions are concentrated upon more specifically. The spatial aspects of the allocation function indicate that economic efficiency is promoted by effective decentralisation so that autonomous sub-authorities can accept responsibility for the provision of collective goods and services with limited geographical advantage. According to this, the national government will only be responsible for services which have a national tenor, such as defence and foreign affairs. An analysis of the stabilisation function indicates that subnational authorities cannot apply stabilisation management in an effective manner. There is considerably less consensus about the allocation of the distribution function. Various reasons exist as to why the distribution function should be vested in the central authority. The possible mobility of individuals, the necessity for the establishment of minimum standards of service and the desirability of central control over fiscal resources are the primary motivation for the execution of the distribution function to be vested in the central authority.