This article analyzes the relationship that Law may have with the ield of macroeconomics, under the premise that Law and Economics has traditionally focused on the relationship between Law and microeconomics. For this purpose, the author makes a summary of the differences between the both ields of economics, and a summary of the tools Law and Economics has collected from them. It is described how the academic coming together between Law and macroeconomics has been driven by the global economic crisis that began in 2008. It is then described how the study and interpretation of legal institutions can consider their macroeconomic context. / El presente artículo realiza un análisis de la relación que puede tener el Derecho con la macroeconomía, bajo la premisa de que el Análisis Económico del Derecho tradicionalmente se ha centrado en la relación entre el Derecho y la microeconomía. Para este propósito el autor hace una síntesis de las diferencias entre ambos campos de la economía, y las herramientas que de ellos ha recogido el Análisis Económico del Derecho que conocemos. Se describe de qué forma el acercamiento académico entre el Derecho y la macroeconomía ha sido impulsado por la crisis económica mundial que comenzó el año 2008 y se explora la manera en que el estudio y la interpretación de las instituciones jurídicas puede tomar en cuenta el contexto macroeconómico en que éstas se desenvuelven.

This thesis contains three essays covering different topics in the field of statistics<p>and econometrics of survey data. Chapters one and two analyse two aspects<p>of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF hereafter) dataset. This survey<p>provides a large information on macroeconomic expectations done by the professional<p>forecasters and offers an opportunity to exploit a rich information set.<p>But it poses a challenge on how to extract the relevant information in a proper<p>way. The last chapter addresses the issue of analyzing the opinions on the euro<p>reported in the Flash Eurobaromenter dataset.<p>The first chapter Measuring Uncertainty and Disagreement in the European<p>Survey of Professional Forecasters proposes a density forecast methodology based<p>on the piecewise linear approximation of the individual’s forecasting histograms,<p>to measure uncertainty and disagreement of the professional forecasters. Since<p>1960 with the introduction of the SPF in the US, it has been clear that they were a<p>useful source of information to address the issue on how to measure disagreement<p>and uncertainty, without relying on macroeconomic or time series models. Direct<p>measures of uncertainty are seldom available, whereas many surveys report point<p>forecasts from a number of individual respondents. There has been a long tradition<p>of using measures of the dispersion of individual respondents’ point forecasts<p>(disagreement or consensus) as proxies for uncertainty. Unlike other surveys, the<p>SPF represents an exception. It directly asks for the point forecast, and for the<p>probability distribution, in the form of histogram, associated with the macro variables<p>of interest. An important issue that should be considered concerns how to<p>approximate individual probability densities and get accurate individual results<p>for disagreement and uncertainty before computing the aggregate measures. In<p>contrast to Zarnowitz and Lambros (1987), and Giordani and Soderlind (2003) we<p>overcome the problem associated with distributional assumptions of probability<p>density forecasts by using a non parametric approach that, instead of assuming<p>a functional form for the individual probability law, approximates the histogram<p>by a piecewise linear function. In addition, and unlike earlier works that focus on<p>US data, we employ European data, considering gross domestic product (GDP),<p>inflation and unemployment.<p>The second chapter Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts is based on<p>a joint work with Christine De Mol and Domenico Giannone. It proposes an<p>approach to optimally combine survey forecasts, exploiting the whole covariance<p>structure among forecasters. There is a vast literature on forecast combination<p>methods, advocating their usefulness both from the theoretical and empirical<p>points of view (see e.g. the recent review by Timmermann (2006)). Surprisingly,<p>it appears that simple methods tend to outperform more sophisticated ones, as<p>shown for example by Genre et al. (2010) on the combination of the forecasts in<p>the SPF conducted by the European Central Bank (ECB). The main conclusion of<p>several studies is that the simple equal-weighted average constitutes a benchmark<p>that is hard to improve upon. In contrast to a great part of the literature which<p>does not exploit the correlation among forecasters, we take into account the full<p>covariance structure and we determine the optimal weights for the combination<p>of point forecasts as the minimizers of the mean squared forecast error (MSFE),<p>under the constraint that these weights are nonnegative and sum to one. We<p>compare our combination scheme with other methodologies in terms of forecasting<p>performance. Results show that the proposed optimal combination scheme is an<p>appropriate methodology to combine survey forecasts.<p>The literature on point forecast combination has been widely developed, however<p>there are fewer studies analyzing the issue for combination density forecast.<p>We extend our work considering the density forecasts combination. Moving from<p>the main results presented in Hall and Mitchell (2007), we propose an iterative<p>algorithm for computing the density weights which maximize the average logarithmic<p>score over the sample period. The empirical application is made for the<p>European GDP and inflation forecasts. Results suggest that optimal weights,<p>obtained via an iterative algorithm outperform the equal-weighted used by the<p>ECB density combinations.<p>The third chapter entitled Opinion surveys on the euro: a multilevel multinomial<p>logistic analysis outlines the multilevel aspects related to public attitudes<p>toward the euro. This work was motivated by the on-going debate whether the<p>perception of the euro among European citizenships after ten years from its introduction<p>was positive or negative. The aim of this work is, therefore, to disentangle<p>the issue of public attitudes considering either individual socio-demographic characteristics<p>and macroeconomic features of each country, counting each of them<p>as two separate levels in a single analysis. Considering a hierarchical structure<p>represents an advantage as it models within-country as well as between-country<p>relations using a single analysis. The multilevel analysis allows the consideration<p>of the existence of dependence between individuals within countries induced by<p>unobserved heterogeneity between countries, i.e. we include in the estimation<p>specific country characteristics not directly observable. In this chapter we empirically<p>investigate which individual characteristics and country specificities are<p>most important and affect the perception of the euro. The attitudes toward the<p>euro vary across individuals and countries, and are driven by personal considerations<p>based on the benefits and costs of using the single currency. Individual<p>features, such as a high level of education or living in a metropolitan area, have<p>a positive impact on the perception of the euro. Moreover, the country-specific<p>economic condition can influence individuals attitudes. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This thesis examines empirical and theoretical issues related to the role of uninsurable individual risk and heterogeneity in macroeconomics. The thesis includes four chapters. The first chapter uses data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to test full risk-sharing among North American households. The second chapter is a short essay where I use simulated data to show how the method applied in the previous chapter can be used to distinguish between partial risk sharing and imperfect credit markets. The third chapter develops a heterogeneous agent dynamic general equilibrium model which jointly models aggregate saving and employment. Finally, the fourth chapter investigates empirically the ability of financial market incompleteness to help explaining the equity premium puzzle. The central motivation throughout this dissertation is the recognition that the interaction between cross-sectional volatility and aggregate volatility is of fundamental importance to understand the way we should model macroeconomic aggregates such as aggregate consumption, asset prices and business cycle fluctuations.<p><p> / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

This study argues that governments with sustained GDP growth, open markets, low country risk, high levels and low standard deviation of government performance, and few or no occurrences of war, will see larger levels of foreign direct investment (FDI) over time. Scholarship on the determinants of FDI variously argues the influence of GDP growth, the openness of a country's economy, a government's level of political capacity, the level of country risk, and the negative effects of inter-, intra- and extrastate conflict. These studies on the various effects on FDI, while providing insightful and substantial statistical results, fail to capture the simultaneous effects of macroeconomic, government performance, country risk, and war variables. The present study attempts to resolve this gap in the literature on FDI by proposing a multi-dimensional model of the combined effects of un-weighted macroeconomic, political, country risk, and war variables on FDI flows over time. The empirical results confirm the expected multi-dimensional nature of FDI flows over time and provide insight into the macroeconomic and political effects on regional and country-level yearly flows of FDI, as well as yielding some unexpected and counter-intuitive results of the role war plays on FDI flows over time.

Doctor of Philosophy / Department of Economics / William F. Blankenau / This dissertation encompasses three essays on the macroeconomics of human capital and economic growth. Below are the individual abstracts for each essay. Essay 1: Does Public Education Spending Increase Human Capital? I investigate the effect of public education spending on the quality of human capital as measured by international student test scores in science and mathematics, conditional on the efficiency of a country's governance. Combining World Bank country level data on government efficiency with rich micro data from the OECD PISA-2009, I estimate a human capital production function from student level data. Prior work suggests that public education expenditures are inconsequential for student achievement. I illustrate that public education spending matters for student test scores when one uses student level data instead of aggregate country level data. These results are robust to controlling for governance measures such as corruption control and regulatory quality. An implication is that less efficient government does not preclude improving test scores through education spending. Essay 2: Inequality of Opportunity in Education: International Evidence from PISA. I provide lower-bound estimates of inequality of opportunity in education (IEO) using micro-data from the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA). The measure represents variation in student mathematics test scores which can be explained by predetermined circumstances (including parental education, gender, and additional community variables). I explore the heterogeneity of the measure at the top and bottom of the test score distribution, and demonstrate that IEO accounts for 10 percent of the variation in test scores for students at the top and bottom of the test score distribution. Using this inequality measure I establish three main conclusions. (1) IEO decreases overall in response to an increase in preprimary enrollment rates. An implication here is that improvements in early childhood education might mitigate the effects of IEO factors for some students. (2) IEO increases in a manner which relates to overall inequality. This indicates the possibility of a more general persistence to inequality factors. An implication is that equity-based education policies can be a key tool for reducing income inequality. (3) There is evidence of an equity-efficiency tradeoff in education. An implication here is that public education policies aimed at reducing IEO might hinder overall education efficiency, in that it decreases academic achievement for some groups of students. Essay 3: Public Education Spending and Economic Growth: The Role of Governance. Although the theoretical literature often connects public education spending to growth, individual empirical findings sometimes conflict. In this paper I propose that inefficiencies in public education spending might explain these inconsistencies. Using a dataset from both developed and developing countries observed over the period of 1995 to 2010, I demonstrate that the efficiency of public education spending on growth depends on a country's level and quality of governance. I also find evidence that increasing educational spending is associated with higher economic growth only in countries that are less corrupt. These findings have important implications for the formation of effective education policies in developing countries. They illustrate that efficient public education spending augments economic growth in a way that increased spending alone does not match.

Sweeping advancements in digital technology have greatly influenced the evolution of every industry through streamlining processes, improving market reach, and disrupting traditional value chains. In the videogames industry which develops, manufactures, and markets interactive entertainment hardware and software, the exponential increases in computing power and affordability have consistently diversified their product offerings and customer base. The spread of internet accessibility and the increased prevalence of gamification for subjects outside of entertainment have provided unique opportunities for market growth. With the increasing ownership of personal computers and advanced mobile devices, the spread of social gaming, and the implementation of “freemium” business models, new revenue streams exclusive to this interactive entertainment medium have empowered the videogames industry to consistently reach more consumers while embracing digital distribution. This paper will not only cover the evolution of the videogames industry from its inception to modern day but also will discuss the challenges that drove this industry’s rise to becoming one of the fastest growing industries in the United States economy. Further this paper will examine the implications of these successes and present-day challenges the industry continues to face.

This paper focuses on understanding the higher than average punishment to Greek stocks and bonds and the overall investor reactions to the worsening economic situation in Greece from 2000 to 2014. Were Greek stock and bond values driven by fiscal and financial conditions, macroeconomic indicators and event shocks to the economy? Time series regressions, Granger Causality Wald tests and impulse response functions are used to answer the question. The proxies for Greek stock and bond market performance include the Athens Stock Exchange Index growth rate and the short run and long run interest rate spreads between Greece and Germany. The macroeconomic variables include debt to GDP ratio, the National Bank of Greece return on equity growth rate, real GDP growth rate, inflation rate, and M1 and M2 money supply growth rates. The significant events include Greece joining the Euro in 2001, the Greek government admitting to lying about budget deficits in 2004, Greece’s first bailout in 2010 and the resignation of Prime Minister George Papandreou in 2011. Results show that most variables are significant and stock and bond market performance are dependent on macroeconomic indicators and event shocks.

In this paper, I analyze Bitcoin price formation and adoption rates at a global and national level. In determining Bitcoin prices, I consider contemporaneous and lagged values of traditional determinants of currencies, such as inflation and industrial production, and digital currency specific factors, primarily public interest. Using monthly time-series data across five years (2011 – 2016), I find that global public interest in Bitcoin, measured by Google searches for the keyword ‘Bitcoin,’ has a positive and significant impact on Bitcoin prices. I extend the analysis to a country level by employing a proxy for adoption rates, represented by the number of local Bitcoin client downloads, which is a useful predictor of prices. I examine pooled data across 12 countries to show that searches for ‘Bitcoin’ can be used to predict adoption rates and, consequently, prices. To the best of my knowledge, this is the first academic article to study Bitcoin usage at a national level. I find that contemporaneous values of traditionally used macroeconomic determinants of currency prices, except inflation, do not have a significant impact on Bitcoin prices.

This dissertation consists of three essays that collectively investigate the relationship between exports, macroeconomic policy and economic growth. The first essay investigates the relationship between disaggregated exports and growthto address why many developing countries rely on primary goods as their main source of export income when evidence suggests they could earn higher returns by exporting manufactured goods.Using regression tree analysis, I find that although increasing manufacturing exports is important for sustained economic growth, this relationship only holds once a threshold level of development is reached. The results imply that a country needs a minimum level of education before it is beneficial to transition from a reliance on primary exports to manufacturing exports. Thesecond essay explores the impact of fiscal episodes on the extensive and intensive margins of exports for a sample of OECD countries. In general, a fiscal stimulus in an exporting country is associated with a substantial decrease in each margin. However, a fiscal consolidation in an exporting country is associated with a large increase in the extensive margin, yielding a positive net effect on total exports. This positive effect of a consolidation disappears when an importing country simultaneously experiences a fiscal episode. Overall, the effect of fiscal episodes on total exports and the export margins yield important ramifications for policy-makers. The third essay takes a broad perspective in characterizing the relationship between disaggregated exports, macroeconomic policy, and economic growth. Few studies consider that macroeconomic policy may influence growth, at least partly, through the export channel and none consider that this impact may differ for primary and manufacturing exports. I first explore the determinants of disaggregated exports to empirically test whether macroeconomic policy influences the size of the export sector in a country. Second, I use simultaneous equations methods to identify the impact of macroeconomic policy and exports on economic growth. Indeed, there appears to be some evidence that macroeconomic policy may affect the level of exports. Moreover, exports appear to exert an influence on growth, but the role of macroeconomic policy in the growth process seems to be only through its influence on other variables.

The world was caught unprepared for the recent crisis that has gripped the globe. The engineering manufacturing sector is reported to have been one of the hardest hit and has been haemorrhaging jobs since the global economic crisis first reached South African shores. This study aimed first, to establish the presence of a global crisis and second, to determine whether this crisis is of an economic or financial nature. Objectives of the study included determining whether the engineering manufacturing sector has been impacted on by the crisis and whether the affects of this have been of a detrimental nature. This was done primarily to assess the extent to which strategies in the engineering manufacturing sector in KwaZulu-Natal have been affected and needed to be specifically adapted in order for SMEs to survive and grow beyond the current economic circumstances. Data was collected through the use of questionnaires, a typically quantitative research technique, as well as through the compilation of literature reviews. Questionnaires were circulated amongst thirty organisations within the identified sector in KwaZulu-Natal, of which twenty-two were completed and returned for analysis. Primary data was analysed in conjunction with the literature reviews. Typical responses confirmed the existence of a crisis and indicated that strategies had to be specifically adapted as a result. However, strategic alterations were often ill informed. This issue could be address through the application of the outlined models to optimise strategy. The use of these models would better enable respondents to make informed decisions when formulating their strategies and thereby assist the organisation in achieving a sustainable competitive advantage. / Thesis (M.Com.)-University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, 2012.