At first, the basics of microeconomics from the perspective of companies, effectiveness and methods of its measurement and the most important information on the distance function this thesis, are shown. It also contains the development of the Malmquist productivity index. The aim of this work is the description of this index and its components. Indicate how these values are calculated and what expressed. Secondary objectives are to introduce different variants of Malmquist indexes and their use. Four models are used for calculating individual components of the Malmquist productivity index. These are the DEA models, Aigner-Chu, Stochastic production frontiers and Stochastic activity analysis. The first three in this work are described in detail. In conclusion is an illustrative example of calculation Malmquist productivity index using DEA models. For the calculation I used the program Lingo.

為了因應國內金融產業多元化、跨業經營的發展，立法院於民國90年6月27日通過「金融控股公司法」，截至2003年底止，我國一共有14家金融控股公司成立，而國內金融界也隨著一家一家金融控股公司的成立，掀起一波波合併及併購的風潮，由於金融機構未來互相合併、朝向大型化及多元化的趨勢明顯，因此，金融控股公司多角化的經營是否能夠發揮其效益是值得我們去探討的。 本文利用非參數邊界法，以及Ferrier et al.（1993）所提出的多角化經濟程度指標，來評估2002與2003年包含銀行、證券及保險營收三項產出的6家多角化金融控股公司之相對效率，並分析其無效率之來源，以及衡量其是否存在多角化經濟。另外，本文以投入導向的MPI評估台灣金融控股公司2002至2003年生產力變動的情形。 實証結果發現，6家包含銀行、證券及保險營收三項產出的多角化金融控股公司，都存在有多角化經濟的現象，表示金融控股公司多角化的發展與跨業經營確有其成本上的效益。另外，比較生產力變動的各項數值，多角化金融控股公司均低於非多角化金融控股公司，顯示多角化的效益並未反應在效率以及生產力的成長上。 / This paper adopts a nonparametric frontier method and the measure define by Ferrier et al. (1993) to evaluate efficiency and economies of diversification of 6 diversification financial holding companies which contain banking, security and insurance in Taiwan in 2002 and 2003. In addition, we use input-oriented Malmquist productivity index to study the productivity change of financial holding companies in Taiwan during 2002-2003. Empirical results indicate that 6 diversification financial holding companies all exhibit economies of diversification. Product diversification of financial holding company indeed has its effect on cost. In addition, compare every component of productivity change, we find non-diversification financial holding companies have better performance than diversification financial holding companies. The effect of diversification has not exhibit on the growth of efficiency and productivity.

自1970年代起，政府鬆綁了許多金融管制與政策限制，國內的銀行產業環境有所改變，再加上逐漸自由化與國際化的趨勢，導致國內的銀行業日益競爭，在如此競爭的環境中，銀行要生存的關鍵在於本身的經營績效是否禁得起市場考驗。 本文有鑑於銀行經營績效的重要性，採用Balk﹝2001﹞定義將總要素生產力變動分解為技術改變、純技術效率改變，規模效率改變及產出組合效果來進行分析。以本國53家一般銀行，選取1997-2005年共9年資料進行分析，並以不同面向進一步探討銀行生產力差異，最後以營運績效管理矩陣討論哪些銀行具有競爭優勢及發展的潛力。 本研究主要實證結果如下： 1、從整體銀行產業各年度生產力來看，整體銀行的經營效率在觀察期間的前半段是呈現退步，但後半段則是呈現成長的反方向變動；至於規模效率與產出組合效果方面則幾乎呈現退步；而技術面則與效率變動恰巧呈現反方向狀態，可見對整體銀行產業來說，規模效率的提昇及產出組合的最適選擇仍有相當大的努力空間。 2、以外資持股比例的面向來看，外資持股比例較高的銀行其生產力並未較外資持股比例較低的銀行生產力高。以公、民營銀行面向來探討，公營銀行的總要素生產力變動較民營銀行的生產力變動高。加入金控後對於技術變動有所提升，但就整體生產力來看加入前後並無顯著差異。 3、以營運績效管理矩陣來分析銀行廠商的表現可知，最多銀行廠商落在象限Ⅵ(TFPC<1，0.75<TE<0.9)，佔所有廠商家數的比率為26.3%，而落於第Ⅰ象限(TFPC>1，TE>0.9)的銀行所佔的比率為14.3%。我們可以看到以縱軸為劃分基準來看，分佈於跨期生產力變動表現不佳的第ⅡⅣ及Ⅵ象限(TFPC<1)的銀行數目佔銀行總家數高達71.5%，顯示對大部分的銀行來說，都不具長期的發展潛力。 / In accordance with the policy of economic liberalization and internationalization, the Taiwan government released the banking industry from lots of financial regulations since 1970. The deregulation has exerted significant structural changes of financial institutions and imposed competitive pressure on the operation of banking industry. It follows that promoting efficiency and productivity of banking are the key factors for the banks to survive in the keen competitive environment. This study investigated the productivity and efficiency issues and decomposed total factor productivity change (TFPC) into technical change (TC), pure technical efficiency change (PTE), scale efficiency change (SEC) and output mix effect (OME) following Balk (2001). Then we proceeded to apply DEA method to estimate and analyze the productivity growth of the 53 sample banks in 1997-2005. The study also constructed an operational performance management matrix to classify and discuss the banks’ competitive advantage and the strategy of future development. The major empirical results were as follows: 1.Operational efficiency of whole banking industry showed a decline tendency in the anterior half of observation period, but the posterior half presented the reverse direction change. The SEC and the OME were declining. The TC presented an increase tendency in the anterior half of observation period, but the posterior half presented the reverse direction change. Therefore, it indicates there are a lot of spaces for the industry to improve its performance. 2.The banks with a higher proportion of foreign shareholdings didn’t have higher TFPC compared to those with lower proportion of foreign shareholdings. The TFPC of the publicly-owned banks was higher than the private banks. We also found that there were no difference in the operation efficiency before and after banks become the subsidiary banks of financial holding corporations. 3.Using operational performance management matrix to classify and discuss banks’ performance, we found that 26.3% of the total banks belong to quadrant Ⅵ (TFPC<1，0.75<TE<0.9). 14.3% of banks belong to quadrantⅠ(TFPC>1，TE>0.9). The banks which located on quadrants Ⅱ, Ⅳ and Ⅵ (TFPC<1) account for 71.5%, which indicates that most of banks lose their long-run competitiveness.

本研究以Rao(2006)的MMPI為基礎，在距離函數觀念下將MMPI進行拆解，分解成技術效率變動、技術變動、規模變動以及追趕項，再將追趕成份，進一步拆解為「技術追趕」(catch-up in technology, 簡稱CUT) 與「潛在技術變動」(potential technological change, PTC)，其中，CUT又可再分解為變動規模報酬之下的效率追趕(catch-up in efficiency, CUE)及規模追趕 (catch-up in scale, CUS)。實證上，利用1993-2007年間，15個歐洲國家的財務報表資料，運用DEA法分析西歐金融機構之經營效率，並進行生產力的推估與拆解，同時結合共同邊界的分析架構，從事群組國家間比較分析。 實證結果發現，MMPI表現突出的群組，主要來自於技術效率的進步，例如：北歐三國群組和奧地利；其次是規模效率的進步，例如：北歐三國與法國；最後才是技術變動，例如法國。而在十個國家群組中，除了義大利的MMPI退步以及奧地利的規模效率呈現持平外，其餘八個群組的MMPI與其三個構成項目，都呈現同升同降的相同趨勢，不同處僅在於變動幅度大小。例如MMPI都呈現進步的情形，其構成項目，分別表現出技術退步、技術效率進步以及規模效率進步。這樣的結果可能來自於歐洲單一市場的運作方式。 又依MMPI統計差異性檢定的結果，我們可以將原先依MMPI數值大小排序的十個國家群組，重新考慮群組間統計上差異及無差異的情形，合併為五個層次的生產力成長情形，第一層為北歐三國，MMPI成長最快，其次為奧地利、法國、比利時，再次為荷葡西英群組，第四層是盧森堡、瑞士，最末層則為德國、丹麥及義大利。

Grundskolan, som är en obligatorisk och viktig kommunal verksamhet, utgör ett exempel på då det är svårt att uppskatta reella resultatmått för att mäta och jämföra effektivitet, t ex till följd av reformer. Denna avhandling belyser utvecklingen av modeller för effektivitetsmätning inom ramen för en reform inom den offentliga sektorn, den s k stads-delsnämndsreformen (SDN-reformen) i Stockholms stad 1997. En grundläggande fråga för de ekonomiska vetenskaperna gäller utveck-ling av metoder för att bedöma effektivitet i olika verksamheter. I denna avhandling är effektivitetsbegreppet centralt. För att mäta effekter krävs mått som anger värdet av det som presterats i förhållande till värdet av de förbrukade resurserna. Möjligheterna att göra effektivitetsmätningar varierar mellan olika verksamheter. Det är svårt att mäta effektivitet hos många offentliga verksamheter och därmed att göra bra bedömningar av deras utveckling. Främst ligger svårigheten i att få goda och jämförbara mått på resultaten av en viss verksamhet. Mot bakgrund av de senare decenniernas reformering av den offentliga sektorn finns ett stort behov av modeller för att bedöma i vilken utsträckning dessa reformer lett till en ökad effektivitet. I studien undersöks effektivitetsförändringar i Stockholms stads grund-skolor i samband med SDN-reformen genom att mäta och beskriva effektivitet med hjälp av flera olika metoder. Tillvägagångssättet innebär att jämföra resultaten från metoderna och studera i vilken grad de pekar åt samma håll. Motivet är att belysa i vilken utsträckning resultaten ger samstämmighet. Då resultaten inte pekar åt samma håll analyseras tänkbara orsaker. En slutsats gällande den troliga effektivitetsför-ändringen ges. Avslutningsvis görs ett försök att med hjälp av SDN-reformen förklara denna utveckling. / <p>Sammanfattning på engelska med titeln: Effectiveness in compulsory school education following a district council reform. Diss. Stockholm : Handelshögskolan, 2003</p>

建設公司的產業發展，並不可以單純的以經濟活動的一環來看，它也是家與生活場合的提供者。但是，在市場上所見到仍是一案建商的活躍，而績優建商卻相對委屈。問題的根源是，在資本市場大家無法分辨建設公司的好壞，資源無法有效流向好的建設公司，自然在市場上就發生劣幣驅逐良幣的現象。但是，在國內建設公司特有的經營環境，使得建設公司財務報表的功能性大幅受限，進而使其誘導資源的能力也相對降低。本論文之主要目的，即是分析建設公司之經營特性，分析其持有土地、在建工程與待售成屋存貨之經濟意涵與會計處理上之問題。同時，透過四個實證研究，提出建設公司存貨持有對建設公司財務報表影響之相關結論與建議，希望能解決部分目前對建設公司財務報表解讀困境與促進對建設公司之瞭解。本文主要內容，由四個實證研究所構成，分述如下。 第一個實證研究為以國泰建設為例，透過時間序列之共積(cointegration)模型，分析養地型建設公司財務報表之長期結構。研究結果發現，土地、在建工程與待售成屋三種存貨間存在長期穩定關係；此外，土地存貨持有率與毛利率長期間呈現負相關，顯示土地存貨持有，利潤率呈現上有不利的影響。實證結果也發現土地存貨持有率與負債比率，長期間呈現負相關，顯示建設公司將在財務結構較健全時進行土地持有。 第二個實證研究為透過資料包絡法(Data Envelopment Analysis;DEA)建構建設公司之績效指標，並利用Tobit迴歸分析比較績效指標與房地產投資開發變數之關連性。研究結果發現，建設公司有能力購入土地進行策略性等待，可以帶動績效指標上升；待售成屋存貨與在建工程存貨就如同預期，與績效指標呈現負相關。該部分實證結果顯示，分析建設公司之績效時，應考慮其存貨構成項目與其背後策略意涵，分析才會周延。至一般常用財務績效指標方面，結果不是完全無法掌握土地開發變數，就是在待售成屋存貨此項土地開發變數方面，與本文建構績效指標的符號方向相反，顯示有進一步探討空間。 第三個實證研究為透過Malmquist生產力指數，進一步計算績效指標之跨期變動，並以拔靴複製法(bootstrap)進行檢定不同土地持有策略對生產力、效率與技術變動影響為何。實證結果顯示，在房地產景氣之起跌階段，生產力均無顯著變化。在房地產景氣之續跌階段，長期大量持有土地之建設公司效率提升；短期大量持有土地之建設公司，產生技術退步。在房地產景氣之探底階段，建設公司為了在訴求高品質之推案以迴避景氣壓力，所以，全體建設公司均發生技術進步。至房地產景氣上升階段，一般性購屋需求大增，建設公司推案以量取勝，此時全體建設公司均發生技術退步現象，但不影響其生產力。 第四個實證研究，針對建設公司業績具有高度隨機性之特性進行研究。利用三階段DEA可以同時調整環境變數與隨機性之特性，深入探討建設公司之純粹技術效率。實證結果發現在一階段DEA中，低持有土地的效率值較好，但是，在三階段DEA則未達顯著水準。成屋存貨持有率與在建工程成有率在一階段DEA都未達顯著水準。在三階段DEA調整環境因素與隨機性後，結果發現，即使房地產景氣上升，擁有待售成屋存貨與在建工程之建設公司仍是效率不利。 綜合以上的結論，本文認為目前財務報表分析重點往往置於損益表之上，財務報表使用者非常關心當期損益，但是基於建設公司的營運特性與會計原則特性，透過當期損益根本難以掌握建設公司未來動態。所以，觀察重點應該重回資產負債表之上，尤其是房地產相關存貨的結構與土地持有策略。同時也必須留意景氣變化對建設公司造成的影響，並調整隨機性對其財務報表數字之表達。 / Construction companies (developers) play a key role in the housing market. However, one-case companies but good performing companies dominate the real estate market. Homebuyers and investors are not able to tell which companies have good quality from their financial reports. Consequently, capitals can not support good companies. The main purpose of this dissertation is to analyze construction companies’ operation, financial report, and economic senses. This dissertation employs four essays to figure out the relation between financial report and land holding and development and to propose some suggestions for solving some dilemmas about construction companies’ financial analysis. The first essay tries to find out the relation between financial structure ratios and real estate related inventory ones. Empirically, we find that there is strong relation between these ratios in the long run. We also find there is a negative relation between land inventory ratio and gross profit rate. Finally, an option of buy-and-hold strategy for land will be exercised under a healthy financial structure. Under considering risk control, the second essay employs Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) to calculate the efficiency of the listed real estate development firms in Taiwan and to discriminate the factors which cause the inefficiency of those. The results show companies which exercise buy-and–hold-land strategy for land have better performance and it can conform to real option theory. The market beats the companies which own buildings or houses for sale as well as constructions in process. By comparing traditional performance indices and DEA indices, the land purchasing decision and the costs for construction in progress go in the same direction. However, the direction of houses for sale and that of land inventory are the opposite. Therefore, the conclusion is that more information is required when we evaluate the performance of real estate companies. The third essay tries to use Malmquist productivity index combine some financial ratios and bootstrapping method to test productivity, efficiency, and technical change of listing real estate companies. At the beginning of a recession, there was no significant productivity change for both companies which hold long-term mass lands(LTML) or short-term ones(STML). For an extension of this period, efficiency improvement and productivity enhancement occur to LTML and technical regress to STML. When the economy hits the bottom, technical progress occurs to both but productivity enhancement occurs only to STML because of huge financial pressures upon LTML. At the period of a recovery, mass-production oriental policy causes technical regress for all companies. Based on the highly stochastic attribute of construction companies operation, the fourth essay applies a three-stage DEA procedure to calculate pure managerial efficiency. We find that the pure managerial efficiency of companies which holding existing houses and construction in progress is at disadvantage. But there is no significant evidence that buy-and-hold-land strategy will lower pure managerial efficiency. From the above four essays, we conclude that financial report analyst should pay more attention to real estate related inventory rather than income statement. We also suggest that more information for land holding, construction in progress, and existing houses should be required.

Disputats, Handelshögskolan, Stockholm, 2003.

A tese trata de questões referentes à economia dos transplantes renais, enfocando os mecanismos institucionais e de incentivos relacionados à captação de órgãos no Brasil, bem como a eficiência dos estados brasileiros que captam e realizam tais transplantes. A questão investigada na tese por meio dos ensaios foi analisar os efeitos e as implicações da estrutura de incentivos sobre o número de órgãos (inclusive rim) captados, ou seja, sobre o comportamento do sistema público de transplantes. Buscou-se também avaliar a eficiência desse sistema e sua tendência de comportamento ao longo do período 2006-2011. Foi conduzida inicialmente uma apresentação de alguns fatos estilizados para a possível elaboração de estratégias referente ao problema de pesquisa, entre os quais se destacaram: i) o tamanho e o tempo de espera nas filas por transplante de órgãos, no período recente, vêm apresentando uma tendência crescente; ii) o Brasil ocupa o segundo lugar no número absoluto de transplantes renais, atrás apenas dos Estados Unidos; iii) o país apresenta o maior programa público de transplantes de órgãos sólidos; iv) o processo de captação de órgãos tem-se apresentado uma atividade com elevada variabilidade entre os estados brasileiros, gerando um desequilíbrio entre a oferta e a demanda por órgãos e v) o sistema de transplante renal é classificado como uma modalidade terapêutica eficiente. No segundo ensaio da tese, analisaram-se os mecanismos de incentivos oferecidos aos hospitais que realizam a captação de rim para transplantes no Brasil. A abordagem teórica usada foi o modelo Principal-Agente, num contexto de informação assimétrica. No modelo, o SUS foi classificado como o Principal (receptor de órgãos captados) e os hospitais captadores, como Agentes. O SUS, por meio de um contrato, busca maximizar o seu objetivo de obter o maior número de órgãos para transplante e, para atingi-lo, delega ações aos hospitais. Os Agentes decidem se lhes interessam criar uma estrutura e condições para a captação de tal órgão. De acordo com os resultados do modelo Agente-Principal, verificou-se que o SUS (Principal) tem adotado diversas medidas de incentivos aos hospitais que realizam a captação de órgãos, tais como: criação de um fundo específico para financiamento dos transplantes (FAEC - Fundo de Ações Estratégicas e Compensação); pagamento uniforme para hospitais universitários e não universitários; expansão dos tipos de procedimentos hospitalares a serem pagos pelo SUS; reajuste frequente das remunerações pagas por procedimento da Tabela de Procedimentos do Sistema de Informações Hospitalares do Sistema Único de Saúde; cursos e/ou encontros com os profissionais da saúde que atuam no processo de doação-transplante e criação de novos incentivos financeiros para hospitais que realizam transplantes na rede pública. Portanto, se os profissionais recebem maiores incentivos, esses podem agir com eficiência no processo de captação do órgão e, consequentemente, contribuem para que ocorra uma redução no tempo e nas filas de espera por transplantes. Objetivando avaliar a eficiência dos estados brasileiros no sistema de transplante renal e a produtividade deles ao longo do tempo, fez-se uso do ferramental da Análise Envoltória de Dados-DEA e do Índice de Malmquist e suas decomposições (efeito Emparelhamento e Deslocamento de Fronteira). Utilizou-se uma amostra de 22 estados no período 2006-2011. O método DEA com Retornos Variáveis de Escala (BCC) orientado no sentido do produto foi aplicado nesse estudo. Cada estado foi considerado como Unidade de Tomada de Decisão (DMU). Os dados classificados como inputs (recursos) foram os seguintes: gastos (nominal) totais com transplantes renais, gastos (nominais) com serviços hospitalares e gastos (nominais) com serviços dos profissionais relacionados ao setor. Como output (produto) foi usado o número de rins transplantados. Os resultados indicaram que existe entre os estados brasileiros uma discrepância significativa em relação à captação e o número de transplantes de rins. Isso gerou uma ineficiência no sistema de transplante renal no país e pode estar ocorrendo em virtude do funcionamento não adequado da gestão; do não seguimento das regras nacionais (como por exemplo, vinculação das equipes a centros transplantadores; distribuição adequada de imunossupressores; encaminhamento de órgãos não aproveitados para estados próximos; execução da tipagem HLA de toda a lista de espera de rim) que causam prejuízos aos pacientes; das comissões intra-hospitalares não ativas e das equipes hospitalares sobrecarregadas. Portanto, alguns estados que participam do processo de captação e doação de rins para transplante estão apresentando ineficiência em termos de ordem administrativa e operacional. / The thesis is about the economy of kidney transplants, focusing on the institutional mechanisms and incentives related to organ harvesting in Brazil, as well as the efficiency of the Brazilian states that perform such transplants. The essays investigated the effects and implications of the incentives structure on the number of organs (including kidney) harvested by the transplants public system. The efficiency of this system and its performance over the 2006-2011 period was also evaluated. Firstly some stylized facts related to the subject were presented, among which stand out: i) the size of queues and waiting times for organ transplantation in recent years have grown; ii) Brazil ranks second in the absolute number of kidney transplants, behind only the United States, iii) the country has the largest public program for solid organs transplantation, iv) the process of organ harvesting has high variability among Brazilian states, creating an imbalance between supply and demand for organs and v) the kidney transplantation system is as an effective therapeutic modality. In the second essay the mechanisms of incentives offered to hospitals that perform kidney harvesting in Brazil were analyzed. The theoretical model used was the Principal-Agent in a context of asymmetric information. In the model, SUS was rated as the Principal (receptor of harvested organs) and the harvesting hospitals, as agents. SUS seeks to maximize the number of organs for transplantation in a contract through which it delegates the harvesting to hospitals. Agents decide whether they are interested in creating a framework and conditions for harvesting organs. The results of the Principal-Agent model indicate that SUS (the Principal) has adopted various incentives to hospitals that perform organ harvesting, such as creating a specific fund to finance transplants (FCSA - Fund for Compensation and Strategic Actions); same payment for university and non-university hospitals, expanding the types of hospital procedures to be paid by SUS; frequent remuneration raises of the amount paid by the procedures in Table of Procedures of the Hospital Information System of the Unified Health System; courses and / or meetings with health professionals working in the donation-transplantation process and creation of new financial incentives to hospitals that perform transplants for the public system. So, if the professional receives stronger incentives, he will act more effectively in the organ harvesting and will thereby contribute to a reduction in waiting lines for transplantation. In order to evaluate the efficiency of the Brazilian states in kidney transplant and their productivity over time, the Data Envelopment Analysis-DEA was used and the Malmquist index and its decomposition (Pairing effect and Boundary Displacement) to a sample of 22 states over five years (2006-2011). The DEA model with variable returns to scale (BCC) directed towards the product was applied in this study. Each state was considered a Decision Making Unit (DMU). Data classified as inputs (resources) were the following: total amount spent (nominal) with kidney transplants, amount spent (nominal) with hospital services and amount spent (nominal) with the professional services related to that sector. As output (product) was used the number of transplanted kidneys. The results indicated that there is a significant discrepancy among the Brazilian states in harvesting and transplanting kidneys. This fact has led to inefficiency in the country’s kidney transplant system and it may be so due to inadequate management, to ignoring natiimmunosuppressants; forwarding not used organs to nearby states, implementation of HLA exam to the entire waiting list for kidney transplant) causing harm to patients; to inactive in-hospital committees and to overloaded hospital staff. Therefore, some states in the process of kidney harvesting and transplantation are showing operational and managerial inefficiencies.onal directives (eg, vinculating teams to transplant centers; proper distribution of immunosuppressants; forwarding not used organs to nearby states, implementation of HLA exam to the entire waiting list for kidney transplant) causing harm to patients; to inactive in-hospital committees and to overloaded hospital staff. Therefore, some states in the process of kidney harvesting and transplantation are showing operational and managerial inefficiencies.

Prediction of corporate bankruptcy (or distress) is one of the major activities in auditing firms’ risks and uncertainties. The design of reliable models to predict distress is crucial for many decision-making processes. Although a variety of models have been designed to predict distress, the relative performance evaluation of competing prediction models remains an exercise that is unidimensional in nature. To be more specific, although some studies use several performance criteria and their measures to assess the relative performance of distress prediction models, the assessment exercise of competing prediction models is restricted to their ranking by a single measure of a single criterion at a time, which leads to reporting conflicting results. The first essay of this research overcomes this methodological issue by proposing an orientation-free super-efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model as a multi-criteria assessment framework. Furthermore, the study performs an exhaustive comparative analysis of the most popular bankruptcy modelling frameworks for UK data. Also, it addresses two important research questions; namely, do some modelling frameworks perform better than others by design? and to what extent the choice and/or the design of explanatory variables and their nature affect the performance of modelling frameworks? Further, using different static and dynamic statistical frameworks, this chapter proposes new Failure Prediction Models (FPMs). However, within a super-efficiency DEA framework, the reference benchmark changes from one prediction model evaluation to another one, which in some contexts might be viewed as “unfair” benchmarking. The second essay overcomes this issue by proposing a Slacks-Based Measure Context-Dependent DEA (SBM-CDEA) framework to evaluate the competing Distress Prediction Models (DPMs). Moreover, it performs an exhaustive comparative analysis of the most popular corporate distress prediction frameworks under both a single criterion and multiple criteria using data of UK firms listed on London Stock Exchange (LSE). Further, this chapter proposes new DPMs using different static and dynamic statistical frameworks. Another shortcoming of the existing studies on performance evaluation lies in the use of static frameworks to compare the performance of DPMs. The third essay overcomes this methodological issue by suggesting a dynamic multi-criteria performance assessment framework, namely, Malmquist SBM-DEA, which by design, can monitor the performance of competing prediction models over time. Further, this study proposes new static and dynamic distress prediction models. Also, the study addresses several research questions as follows; what is the effect of information on the performance of DPMs? How the out-of-sample performance of dynamic DPMs compares to the out-of-sample performance of static ones? What is the effect of the length of training sample on the performance of static and dynamic models? Which models perform better in forecasting distress during the years with Higher Distress Rate (HDR)? On feature selection, studies have used different types of information including accounting, market, macroeconomic variables and the management efficiency scores as predictors. The recently applied techniques to take into account the management efficiency of firms are two-stage models. The two-stage DPMs incorporate multiple inputs and outputs to estimate the efficiency measure of a corporation relative to the most efficient ones, in the first stage, and use the efficiency score as a predictor in the second stage. The survey of the literature reveals that most of the existing studies failed to have a comprehensive comparison between two-stage DPMs. Moreover, the choice of inputs and outputs for DEA models that estimate the efficiency measures of a company has been restricted to accounting variables and features of the company. The fourth essay adds to the current literature of two-stage DPMs in several respects. First, the study proposes to consider the decomposition of Slack-Based Measure (SBM) of efficiency into Pure Technical Efficiency (PTE), Scale Efficiency (SE), and Mix Efficiency (ME), to analyse how each of these measures individually contributes to developing distress prediction models. Second, in addition to the conventional approach of using accounting variables as inputs and outputs of DEA models to estimate the measure of management efficiency, this study uses market information variables to calculate the measure of the market efficiency of companies. Third, this research provides a comprehensive analysis of two-stage DPMs through applying different DEA models at the first stage – e.g., input-oriented vs. output oriented, radial vs. non-radial, static vs. dynamic, to compute the measures of management efficiency and market efficiency of companies; and also using dynamic and static classifier frameworks at the second stage to design new distress prediction models.

Made available in DSpace on 2014-12-17T15:24:27Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 AnneECC_ DISSERT.pdf: 2698777 bytes, checksum: 9b627390b9da35e3c01dffa3f5bb4993 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2014-01-22 / The deficit of water and sewerage services is a historic problem in Brazil. The introduction of a new regulatory framework, in 2007, presented ways intending to overcome these deficits, among them, the providers efficiency improvement. This thesis aims to analyze the regulators performance regarding its ability to induce the efficiency of the Brazilian water and sewerage services providers. To this end, an analytical approach based on a sequential explanatory strategy was used, and it consists of three steps. In the first step, the Data Envelopment Analysis ( DEA ) was used to measure the providers efficiency in 2006 and 2011. The results show that the average efficiency may be considered high; however significant inefficiencies among the 29 analyzed providers were detected. The ones in the Southeast region showed better performance level and Northeast had the lowest. The local and the private providers were more efficient on average. In 2006 and 2011 the average performance was higher among non-regulated providers. In 2006 the group regulated by local agencies had the best average performance, in 2011, the best performance was the group regulated by the consortium agencies. To analyse the second step was used the Malmquist Index, it pointed that the productivity between 2006 and 2011 dropped. The analysis through decomposing Malmquist Index showed a shift of technical efficiency frontier to a lower level, however was detected a small provider s advance towards the frontier. Only the Midwest region recorded progress in overall productivity. The deterioration in the total factor productivity was higher among regional providers but the local ones and the private agencies moved quickly to the frontier level. The providers regulated from 2007 showed less decrease on the total productivity and the results of the catch up effect were more meaningful. In the last step, the regulators standardization activity analyses noted that there are agencies that had not issued rules until 2011. The most standards topics discussed in the issued rules were the tariff adjustments and the setting of general conditions for the provision and use of services; in another hand, the least covered topics were new technologies incentive and the introduction of efficiency-inducing regulatory mechanisms and productivity gains for price reviews. Regulators created from 2007 were more active proportionately. Even with the advent of the regulatory framework and the creation of new regulatory bodies, the evidence points to a reality in which the actions of these agencies have not been ensuring that providers of water and sewage, regulated by them, has achieved better performance. The non- achievement of regulatory goals can be explained by the incipient level of performance of the Brazilian regulatory authorities, which should be strengthened because of its potential contribution to the Brazilian basic sanitation department / O d?ficit de servi?os de ?gua e esgotos ? um problema hist?rico no Brasil. A institui??o de um novo marco regulat?rio, em 2007, apresentou caminhos para que o d?ficit fosse superado, entre eles, a melhora da efici?ncia dos prestadores de servi?os. Esta disserta??o busca analisar a atua??o das entidades reguladoras no que se refere ? indu??o da efici?ncia dos prestadores de servi?os de abastecimento de ?gua e esgotamento sanit?rio no Brasil. Para tanto, foi utilizado um enfoque anal?tico baseado em uma estrat?gia explanat?ria sequencial, composta por tr?s etapas. Na primeira etapa, foi utilizada a An?lise Envolt?ria de Dados (DEA) para avaliar a efici?ncia dos prestadores nos anos de 2006 e 2011. Os resultados obtidos indicam m?dias de efici?ncia que podem ser consideradas elevadas, no entanto foram detectadas inefici?ncias relevantes entre os 29 prestadores analisados. Os prestadores da regi?o Sudeste apresentaram melhor desempenho e a regi?o Nordeste teve o desempenho mais baixo. Os prestadores de abrang?ncia local e propriedade privada foram mais eficientes na m?dia. Em 2006 e 2011 o desempenho m?dio foi maior entre os prestadores n?o regulados. Em 2006 o grupo de prestadores regulados por entidades municipais apresentou melhor desempenho m?dio, j? em 2011, o melhor desempenho foi do grupo regulado por entidades consorciadas. A an?lise realizada na segunda etapa, por meio do ?ndice de Malmquist, apontou queda de produtividade entre 2006 e 2011. A an?lise decomposta do ?ndice indicou um deslocamento da fronteira t?cnica de efici?ncia para um n?vel inferior, no entanto foi verificado um pequeno avan?o dos prestadores em dire??o ? fronteira. Apenas a regi?o Centro-Oeste registrou avan?o na produtividade total. A queda de produtividade foi maior entre os prestadores de abrang?ncia regional e os prestadores com abrang?ncia local e propriedade privada se moveram mais rapidamente para a fronteira. Os prestadores regulados a partir de 2007 apresentaram menor queda na produtividade total e melhoria pura de efici?ncia mais significativa. Na ?ltima etapa, a an?lise da atividade de normatiza??o das entidades reguladoras constatou a exist?ncia de entidades que n?o editaram normas at? 2011. Os temas mais abordados nas normas foram a autoriza??o de reajustes tarif?rios e o estabelecimento de condi??es gerais da presta??o e utiliza??o dos servi?os, j? os temas menos abordados foram o incentivo ao uso de novas tecnologias e a defini??o de metodologia de revis?o tarif?ria com mecanismo de indu??o da efici?ncia e ganhos de produtividade. As entidades reguladoras criadas a partir de 2007 foram proporcionalmente mais atuantes. Mesmo com o advento do marco regulat?rio e com a cria??o de novas entidades reguladoras, as evid?ncias apontam para uma realidade na qual a atua??o dessas entidades n?o tem sido garantia de que os prestadores de ?gua e esgotos, por elas regulados, alcancem melhor desempenho. O n?o alcance dos objetivos regulat?rios pode ser explicado pelo n?vel ainda incipiente da atua??o das entidades reguladoras brasileiras, que devem ser fortalecidas diante do seu potencial de contribui??o para o setor de saneamento b?sico no Brasil