本研究欲了解有無集團企業背景對本國產險公司經營效率之影響，並透過本國有無集團企業背景產險公司之效率比較，求證關於代理理論之審慎管理假說及費用偏好假說是否成立。本研究運用資料包絡分析法(Data envelopment Analysis, DEA)及cross-frontier analysis評估民國81至90年，17家本國產險公司具集團背景及無集團背景各年度效率情況。另外，採用多元迴歸分析討論產險公司不同經營特性對經營效率的影響。本文亦利用Malmquist生產力指數分析具集團背景及無集團背景產險公司十年來生產力的變動。 　　本研究之實證研究結果如下： 一、於技術效率，具集團背景及無集團背景產險公司無技術效率差異，表示不論有無集團背景，皆有各自的經營技術優勢，符合審慎管理假說。於成本效率，發現81至85年時具集團背景產險公司之成本結構於生產無集團背景產險公司的產出相對較具成本效率，符合費用偏好假說；但86至90年時，則無集團背景產險公司之成本結構對於自己的產出較具成本效率，不符合費用偏好假說。 二、以多元迴歸分析於81至85年、86至90年，影響無集團背景產險公司效率之因素。本文發現於86至90年，當無集團背景產險公司總資產越小、再保比例越高，其以自己的成本結構進行生產，越顯著較以具集團背景產險公司的成本結構進行生產來得具成本效率。 三、二類產險公司於民國81至90年間生產力皆呈現衰退，且具集團背景產險公司衰退情況較嚴重。二類產險公司生產力衰退主因皆為生產技術的衰退；此外，具集團企業背景產險公司十年來的技術效率有衰退的趨勢，而無集團背景產險公司之技術效率則持續進步。若綜合前面成本效率的結果，則十年來具集團背景產險公司平均效率表現沒有進步跡象；而無集團背景產險公司有改善其效率。 / The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of“group”background on the property-liability insurance industry in Taiwan. We test the managerial discretion hypothesis and the expense preference hypothesis by comparing the efficiency of the group and independent property-liability insurers. Using the property-liability insurance industry in Taiwan from 1992-2001 as our sample, we use DEA and cross-frontier analysis, and adapt multiple regression analysis to examine the variables which affect the efficiency performance in the property insurance company. We also measure the productivity changes of the group firms and independent firms over ten years. The empirical results are summarized as follow. First, we find that the technical efficiency results are consistent with the managerial discretion hypothesis, in that there is no difference in the technical efficiency between the group firms and independent firms. The results of cost efficiency between 1992 and 1996 show that the group frontier dominates the independent frontier for independent outputs, supporting the expense preference hypothesis. However, the results of cost efficiency between 1997 and 2001 no more support the expense preference hypothesis in that the independent frontier dominates the group frontier for independent outputs. Second, we find that the independent firms tend to have a comparative advantage over the group firms in the independent cost frontier when the independent firm’s size is smaller or when its reinsurance proportion is higher. Finally, the results of the Malmquist productivity analysis show that the productivity of group firms declines in 1992-2001, and the decay is due to their technical efficiency decreases. Conversely, the productivity of the independent firm improves.

兩岸在2001年底加入世界貿易組織（WTO），使得兩岸壽險市場受到經濟自由化及國際化的衝擊。因此，要如何提高自身的經營績效及競爭能力，便成為兩岸壽險公司最重要的目標。本研究以資料包絡分析法為基礎，並結合共同邊界（metafrontier）分析法，針對兩岸地區在2004年至2007年共59家壽險公司，進行經營效率與Malmquist生產力指數的實證研究。在生產力變動來源的拆解上，本文延伸Pastor and Lovell（2005）的固定規模報酬模型，利用變動規模報酬的生產邊界來衡量各公司的技術變動及技術差距比率變動，使生產力變動的來源上獲得更明確的意涵。最後本文利用Tobit迴歸模型，探討影響兩岸壽險公司經營效率的因素。 / After joining the WTO in December 2001, there is the advent of economic liberalization and internationalization on the life insurance market of Taiwan and Mainland China. Therefore, how to improve the operating performance and the industrial competitiveness in the present economic circumstance is the critical and important goal of the life insurance industry in Taiwan and Mainland China. This study applies data envelopment analysis with metafrontier model to measure the managerial efficiency and Malmquist productivity index of 59 firms of life insurance industry in Taiwan and Mainland China from 2004 to 2007. On decomposing the sources of productivity change, we extend Pastor and Lovell’ s CRS model (2005) to a VRS frontier benchmark to measure technical change and technical gap ratio change, which apparently provides us a more meaningful decomposition of productivity change. Finally, this study uses Tobit regression model to examine the factors which influence the managerial efficiency of the life insurance industry in Taiwan and Mainland China.

本文以資料包絡分析法衡量2004年第一季至2008年第三季台灣商業銀行之效率與生產力，並以其代表銀行之經營績效。不同於過去文獻之處在於本文以前瞻之觀點（沈中華，2005）求出放款預期損失以衡量放款風險，作為放款過程中的非意欲產出。本文並利用Ray and Desli（1997）架構拆解Malmquist總要素生產力指數，探討銀行績效變動之來源，此外，亦將該拆解結果與Färe et al.（1994）拆解方式比較，發現在技術變動部分有明顯不同。本文並探討影響銀行效率之因素以及檢定不同類型銀行之生產力表現是否有顯著差異。 / The purpose of this paper is to examine the efficiency and productivity change of Taiwan’s banks over 2004Q1-2008Q3 using data envelopment analysis. Unlike the literature of the past, this paper uses the forward-looking viewpoint to derive expected losses from loans to measure the credit risk. In addition, the loan expected loss is thought of as an undesirable output in the estimation of efficiency and productivity. On the other hand, this paper uses a VRS frontier benchmark (Ray and Desli, 1997) to analyze the sources of productivity change. This paper also compares this result with that of Färe et al.（1994）decomposition, and finds that the estimated technical changes of two approaches are significantly different. Further, this paper analyzes the factors influencing banks’ efficiency, and investigates the productivity differences between different ownerships.

本文採用一階段隨機邊界分析法（Battese and Coelli, 1995）衡量2004 年第一季至2008 年第三季台灣上市櫃證券商的技術效率，並將Orea（2002）提出的產出導向一般化Malmquist生產力指數改寫成投入導向模式，用來分析台灣上市櫃證券商的生產力變動情形。實證結果顯示，小型券商之經營效率平均而言比大型券商之經營效率高，而大部分的證券商都呈現規模報酬遞增的技術狀態，可見台灣上市櫃證券商整體而言規模不夠大，必須設法再擴大至適當的規模方可發揮規模經濟效果。另外，較多的股本雖然理論上具備較強的競爭優勢，但可能沒有適當的決策支持，造成資源浪費反而降低經營效率；股價指數愈高，在相同的投入之下有較多的產出表現且較有能力調整規模至規模報酬較佳的狀況，因而提高經營效率。 / This paper adopts one-stage stochastic frontier analysis (Battese and Coelli, 1995) to measure technical efficiency of listed securities firms in Taiwan from the first quarter of 2004 to the third quarter of 2008. In addition, inspired by the Orea (2002) output orientated productivity model, this paper derives an input orientated generalized Malmquist productivity index to analyze the productivity change of the firms. The empirical results reveal that smaller securities firms are more efficient than larger securities firms in average. The majority of securities firms are operating with increasing returns to scale, indicating that the scale of listed securities firms in Taiwan are generally not large enough, so firms need to enlarge their scale in order to get the effect of economies of scale. Although more capital stocks possess stronger competitive advantage theoretically, without proper strategy to support the firms may waste resources and result in operational inefficiency. Operational efficiency is positively correlated with stock index.

臺灣於1990年放寬銀行設立的限制後，本國銀行和外商銀行的數目快速增加，使得金融市場更加競爭，因此銀行的經營績效是個重要的議題，銀行可透過績效的評估結果找出可能的改善方向。本國銀行與外商銀行的進入條件、經營形態、銀行制度等因素可能使得兩種類型的銀行生產技術有所不同，因此本研究採用全域共同邊界法研究37家本國銀行與20家外商銀行在2005-2015年間效率與生產力的分析，並採用變動規模的方式拆解Malmquist生產力指數，使得生產力變動來源能更精準地衡量。最後使用Tobit迴歸分析找出影響銀行技術效率、最佳實務差距和技術差距比率之因素。 / Since Taiwan relaxed the restriction of setting up a bank in early 1990s, the number of both domestic and foreign banks in Taiwan had increased rapidly. This leads to the result that the financial market become more competitive. Consequently, the performance of bank is an important issue. It can be used to find some way for improvement. Due to the different entry conditions, types of operating system and bank systems between domestic and foreign banks, this paper uses global metafrontier approach to research the efficiency and productivity change of 37 domestic banks and 20 foreign banks during 2005-2015 in Taiwan. Furthermore, this research adopts VRS to decompose Malmquist productivity indexes, which makes the sources of the productivity change can be measured more accurately. Finally, Tobit regression analysis is used to investigate the factors accounting for the differences in technical efficiency, best practice gap and technology gap.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-03-15T19:26:00Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Rafael Picchioni Tavares.pdf: 374508 bytes, checksum: b3aba124f1b6628e3b78b40273d1b848 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2012-08-17 / This study examines efficiency applying the method of data envelopment analysis (DEA) in branches database of a consumer finance company. It presents various perspectives on the analysis of organizational performance, identifying the pros and cons of each perspective in comparative study of performance of business units concluding with the justification for the application of DEA. The sample includes information from 98 branches of a consumer finance company with operations in Brazil, with annual data from 2010 and 2011. It is also analyzed changes in efficiency between 2010 and 2011 using Malmquist index and its components. It is investigated different approaches of efficiency, as, for example, the operational and financial and its linear relationship with the input variables or outputs. - The index of correlation and linear regression analyzes seek to identify the relationship between resources used (inputs) and results (outputs) with the efficiency index. Finally, the results are compared using DEA with the current method adopted by the company for branch performance analysis based on the profitability. The results suggest that, when it adopted the criteria of profitability, there is a favoring of large branches. In contrast, it is not observed DEA favoring any branch depending on its size. Another important result was the indication that policies to reduce expenses through staff cuts may cause a worsening of financial efficiency. Another warning to senior management is the fact that the branches had a worse gap relating to efficient frontier from 2010 to 2011. / Este estudo analisa eficiência utilizando o método de Análise Envoltória de Dados (DEA Data Envelopment Analysis) com aplicação em uma base de dados de filiais de uma sociedade de crédito. São apresentadas diversas perspectivas de análise de desempenho organizacional, identificando os prós e os contras de cada perspectiva no estudo comparativo de desempenho de unidades de negócio, concluindo com a justificativa para a aplicação do DEA. A amostra deste estudo compreende informações de 98 filiais de uma sociedade de crédito com atuação no Brasil, com dados anuais de 2010 e 2011. São analisadas também as mudanças de eficiência entre 2010 e 2011 pelo Índice de Malmquist e seus componentes. São investigados diferentes tipos de abordagem de eficiência; como, por exemplo, a operacional e a financeira e sua relação linear com variáveis de input ou output. - A partir de índices de correlação e de análises de regressão linear busca-se identificar o relacionamento entre os recursos utilizados (inputs) ou resultados obtidos (outputs) com os índices de eficiência. Finalmente, são comparados os resultados encontrados na utilização do DEA com o atual método, baseado na lucratividade, adotado pela empresa para análise de desempenho das filiais. Os resultados sugerem que, quando é adotado o critério de lucratividade, há um favorecimento das filiais grandes. Em contrapartida, com o método DEA, não se observa o favorecimento em função do tamanho. Outro resultado importante foi a indicação de que políticas de redução de despesa por de cortes de pessoal podem causar piora na eficiência financeira. Outro alerta para a alta gestão é o fato de as filiais apresentarem um distanciamento da fronteira de eficiência de 2010 para 2011.

Submitted by Sandro Camargo (sandro.camargo@unipampa.edu.br) on 2015-05-09T19:30:37Z No. of bitstreams: 1 117110019.pdf: 3622835 bytes, checksum: bf885e1754a3be10513d615ebdb016c7 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-05-09T19:30:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 117110019.pdf: 3622835 bytes, checksum: bf885e1754a3be10513d615ebdb016c7 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2013-11-23 / Este trabalho investiga o processo de evolução dos índices de eficiência técnica e de produtividade de Malmquist para as 30 maiores empresas distribuidoras de energia elétrica no Brasil, confrontando a metodologia do órgão regulador (Agência Nacional de Energia Elétrica – ANEEL) de avaliação dos Custos Operacionais Regulatórios do Ciclo de Revisão Tarifária Periódica, com as relações existentes entre a tecnologia de produção utilizada por estas empresas e a qualidade dos serviços prestados à sociedade, entre 2003 e 2009, aplicando-se a Análise por Envoltória de Dados (Data Envelopment Analysis – DEA). Para tanto, utilizam-se os seguintes modelos DEA, orientados para insumo: o CRS (CCR), o VRS (BCC) e o NDRS (usado pela ANEEL), que presumem tecnologias com os seguintes retornos à escala de produção: constantes, variáveis e não decrescentes, respectivamente. Sendo estes modelos DEA aplicados aos dois cenários modelados: no primeiro (chamado de C1), observam-se as variáveis quantitativas adotadas pela ANEEL, tendo como insumo o Custo Operacional – OPEX (R$) e como produtos a Extensão de Redes de Distribuição de Energia Elétrica – Rede (km), o Consumo de Energia Elétrica – Mercado (TWh) e o Número de Unidades Consumidoras de Energia Elétrica – UC (No de Clientes); no segundo (chamado de C2) são inseridas variáveis de qualidade ao cenário C1, definindo-as como produtos na modelagem DEA, citando-se o Índice ANEEL de Satisfação do Cliente – IASC (No Índice) e o Indicador de Desempenho Global de Continuidade – DGC (No Índice). Desta forma, com base nos resultados de desempenho relativo para o período analisado, identificam-se como resultados principais a tendência de evolução positiva das medidas de eficiência técnica e a tendência de estabilização das medidas de produtividade, para o conjunto das 30 maiores empresas distribuidoras de energia elétrica do país. Além disso, comparando-se os resultados de eficiência técnica e produtividade, nos diferentes cenários e nas diferentes modelagens DEA (benchmarking), verificou-se que a implementação de um cenário e de uma modelagem deve refletir a realidade econômica (aproximação com a função de produção verdadeira) das empresas distribuidoras de energia elétrica no Brasil, de modo a possibilitar a identificação das distribuidoras de energia elétrica que estão operando na escala ótima (ou não) e se os retornos à escala de produção são constantes, crescentes ou decrescentes. Assim, percebeu-se que boa parte das empresas (C1 igual a 40% e C2 igual a 50%) apresentaram retornos de escala de produção decrescentes (DRS) em todo o período de tempo analisado. Portanto, a modelagem DEA VRS apresenta-se mais adequada para a avaliação de desempenho, em detrimento da modelagem DEA NDRS usada pela ANEEL, pois admite que as empresas atuem na região decrescente da fronteira de produção e ainda assim possam ser consideradas eficientes. Já o cenário C2, ao agregar variáveis de qualidade ao Cenário C1 (ANEEL), aproxima-se também desta realidade econômica, buscada pelo órgão regulador através da mensuração dos custos operacionais regulatórios associados aos indicadores de qualidade na prestação dos serviços à comunidade. Por fim, são realizadas considerações sobre a necessidade de aprimoramento de alguns pontos na metodologia utilizada pelo regulador, representando desafios para a garantia de equidade entre a modicidade tarifária e a sustentabilidade das empresas do setor elétrico brasileiro, de modo a garantir-se, efetivamente, o equilíbrio econômico-financeiro nos próximos Ciclos de Revisão Tarifária Periódica. / This work investigates the evolution process of technical efficiency indices and Malmquist productivity for the 30 largest power utilities in Brazil, comparing the methodology of the regulator (ANEEL – National Agency of Electric Energy) of evaluation of Regulatory Operational Costs of the Periodic Tariff Review Cycle, with the relationship etween the production technology used by these companies and the quality of services provided to the society between 2003 and 2009, applying the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). For this, it is used the following models DEA – input oriented: CRS (CCR), the VRS (BCC) and the NDRS (used by ANEEL), assume that the following technologies returns to scale production: constants, variables, and nondecreasing, respectively. It was adopted two scenarios: the first (called C1), it was observed quantitative variables adopted by ANEEL, taking as input the Operating Cost – OPEX (R$), and as products the Extension of Distribution Networks Electricity - Network (km), the Consumption of Electricity – Market (TWh) and the Unit Number of Electric Consumers – UC (No of Customers), the second (called C2), and quality variables to the scenario C1 are inserted by defining them as products in modeling DEA, the ANEEL’s index of Customer Satisfaction - IASC (NoIndex) and Performance Indicator of Global Continuity – DGC (No Index). Thus, based on performance results relative to the analysis period, it is identified measures of technical efficiency with positive trend and productivity measures with stabilizing trend for the whole of the 30 largest power utilities in Brazil. Furthermore, comparing the results of technical efficiency and productivity in the different scenarios and different DEA modeling (benchmarking), it was found that the implementation of a scenario and a model should reflect the economic reality (closer to the function of real production) of power utilities in Brazil, in order to facilitate the identification of power utilities that are operating at optimal scale (or not) and returns to scale of production are constant , increasing or decreasing. Thus, it was noticed that most companies (C1 equal to 40% and C2 equal to 50%) showed decreasing returns to scale of production (DRS) throughout the time period analyzed. Therefore, the VRS DEA model appears more suitable for the evaluation of performance, rather than modeling the DEA NDRS used by ANEEL, since it allows companies to act in the decreasing region of production frontier and still can be considered efficient. Finally, we discuss the need to improve some points in the methodology used by the regulator, representing challenges to ensuring equity between low tariffs and sustainability of the Brazilian electricity sector, in order to guarantee effectively the economic-financial balance over the next Periodic Tariff Review Cycle.

La exposición de las contribuciones al análisis estocástico de la eficiencia técnica de este trabajo de investigación, requiere que: en el primer capítulo se definan los conceptos básicos para la comprensión de los capítulos dos y tres. Además y para la formulación de los problemas que han dado origen a este trabajo, se presenta también en este capítulo una breve revisión de las técnicas de estimación de la eficiencia técnica y de la productividad.Dentro de estas técnicas y debido a la gran flexibilidad funcional que proporciona, nos hemos centrado en la estimación no paramétrica y más en concreto en mejorar la inferencia estadística de sus estimaciones. Es por ello que el segundo de los aspectos que se trata es la inferencia estadística que se debería de efectuar en el análisis de la envolvente de datos, habitualmente denominado con el acrónimo DEA. El análisis estadístico es sistemáticamente "olvidado" en casi todos los trabajos que aplican esta técnica, y tal y como mostramos en este apartado, según se incorpore o no inferencia estadística al DEA la interpretación de los resultados es diferente. En el tercer apartado y continuando en la línea de mejorar las herramientas de inferencia estadística en el ámbito no paramétrico, presentamos un nuevo contraste basado en simetría condicional para evaluar consistentemente la ineficiencia técnica de cada uno de los productores. Este contraste relaja algunos de los supuestos funcionales de otros contrastes anteriores y a diferencia de los contrastes basados en los momentos, es consistente con todo tipo de distribuciones de la ineficiencia. / This thesis provides in the first chapter a brief review of efficiency and productivity methods. Secondly we examine how to analyze efficiency and productivity by DEA and we apply the method for the Spanish airports in the period 1992-94. Although the time period analyzed is fairly short, we study the impact of the crisis in the productivity of Spanish airports. We apply the Malmquist index since among its other advantages this ratio allows for the decomposition of total productivity changes into different sources of variation. We also use resampling methods to gain statistical precision and the bootstrap analysis yields further evidence given that for many airports efficiency and productivity is not statistically significant.In standard deterministic frontier analysis, either DEA or FDH techniques allowed to determinate inefficient units just but taking some measure between the estimated frontier and the related output. Unfortunately, when we assume that some symmetric noise is present in the data, then the previous task becomes much harder. The problem is that in this setting noise and efficiency are not identified and therefore, without an statistical tool it is impossible to decide whether a firm is efficient or not. In the third chapter we propose a test for efficiency in a stochastic nonparametric frontier analysis. Under weak conditions on the specification of the production frontier, and the null hypothesis of efficiency, we provide the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic. Furthermore we show the test is consistent against a broad set of alternatives of inefficiency. Evidence of the good properties of the test is given by a simulation study.

本文採用一階段隨機邊界分析方法，建立一多投入多產出之投入距離函數模型，衡量民國81~91年間台灣66家國際觀光旅館經營之相對技術效率，同時探討造成不效率之因素。並利用投入導向Malmquist生產力指數進一步分析國際觀光旅館產業生產力改變的原因與幅度。 整體而言，台灣國際觀光旅館產業之經營效率大致呈現緩慢進步之趨勢。造成整體產業生產力提升之原因，主要為業者對於投入產出配置使用之效率改善，而非生產技術進步。除了整體經濟景氣因素當然影響觀光產業之興衰外，個別國際觀光旅館業者之效率表現仍受到許多因素影響。諸如規模、國際化程度等內部原因，及旅館是否位處風景區、所在地縣市政府對觀光發展投注之資源預算和該地市場競爭程度等外在因素。 從政府政策方面來分析，若以整體國際觀光旅館產業經營效率來衡量我國觀光產業興衰，民國87年隔週休二日政策及民國90年實施之全面週休二日政策，的確有效帶動國人休閒旅遊之風潮，促進國內觀光發展。而各縣市政府觀光相關支出與國際觀光旅館生產力變動之關係，呈現正向相關，則表示政府支出增加有助於觀光產業蓬勃發展，並增加國際觀光旅館之經營效率。由於觀光產業生產具外部性，政府積極利用觀光產業以帶動經濟景氣繁榮成長的政策應當可行。 / In this paper a multi-output, multi-input and input oriented distance function is built by one-stage stochastic frontier approach (Battese and Coelli, 1995) to estimate the relative efficiency of the 66 international tourist hotels in Taiwan in 1992~2002 and to explore the determinants of technical efficiency. In addition, the Malmquist productivity index model is used to analyze the range and the causes of the productivity changed. The results reveal that managerial efficiency of international tourist hotel industry improves gradually. The productivity growth can be attributed to efficiency gains, but not the effects of technical progress. There are significant differences in efficiency due to difference not only in the macroeconomic situation, but also in many other individual factors, such as scale, joining an international chain, located in scenic area, local government other economic service expenditure and competitiveness. Analyzing the government policy, the implementations of two-day-off twice a month policy in 1998 and two-day-off per week policy in 2001 have fostered domestic traveling and expanded tourist hotel industry. The local government other economic service expenditure has positive effect on efficiency of international tourist hotels. That is to say, increasing in local government tourist expenditure will promote tourism market and improve efficiency of a hotel. Because of the production externality in tourism industry the idea that government tries to promote tourism to benefit economic development would be workable.

從2015年統計數據來看，中國大陸涉農金融機構地方滲透性比重較高。03年中國大陸國務院下發《深化農村信用社改革試點方案》到現在為止雖然14年了，但是農村信用社還是存在很多問題。 所以研究農村信用社經營效率，對提高涉農金融機構質量和促進中國大陸農村金融市場的發展具有重大的意義。 本研究以數據包絡分析法為主，由於dea方法沒有考慮到誤差項的分配，因此加入了隨機前沿分析法。 本研究發現雖有個別農村信用社效率不足的情況存在，但福建地區整體農村信用社各項指標都很穩定。只是要針對個別經濟環境不景氣的地區重點研究，造成其效率低下的主要原因，改善其經營效率，也能提高整體指標。 從本研究對福建省地區農村信用社效率的比較影射到全國農村信用社。在國務院對農村金融改革後，雖農信社還存在部分問題，但也慢慢趨向穩定發展。可看出國務院的金融改革日漸成效。 / The statistical data of 2015 indicates that most of the Chinese local financial institutions are served as agriculture-related financial institutions.Although state council promulgated<The reform of rural credit cooperatives >in 2003, there are still lots of problems to be solved today. Therefore, the researches about the operating efficiency of rural credit cooperatives can help not only the improvement in the quality of agriculture-related financial institutions but also the development of rural financial market in China. This paper is mainly based on the data envelop analysis (DEA). Because the DEA doesn't consider the distribution of residuals, we also use the stochastic frontier analysis. In this paper, we find that the inefficiency problem still exists in some rural credit cooperatives, but all indexes of overall rural credit cooperatives in Fujian area are still stable. Moreover, we think that the improvement in the operating efficiency of individual rural credit cooperatives can also improve the overall indexes. Applying our analysis into whole districts of China, we find that the development becomes stable gradually, meaning the reform by state council works.